5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world | Johan Rockström

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Connie Wu

In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.

人類在 2015 年有 2 項 很棒且很有希望的突破。

First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals,

第一，採用了永續發展目標，

the collective, universal plan for humanity

它是人類的集體、全體計畫，

to eradicate hunger,

旨在根絕饑荒，

[promote] good economic development and good health,

推動好的經濟發展以及健康的好處，

within global environmental targets.

是在全球環境目標之下的計畫。

Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,

第二，在 21 年的協商之後，

we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement,

我們採用了有法律約束力的巴黎協議，

all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius,

全世界的所有國家要讓全球暖化 維持在攝氏 2 度之內，

aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

目標是攝氏 1.5 度。

Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.

現今，已經 3 年過去了，

我們還談連邊都碰不著。

Now, I think it's time to step back one step

我認為，現在是該 退一步的時候了，

and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed

該承認我很納悶三年前 在聯合國大會上，

世界領導人們是否知道 自己簽了什麼。

at the General Assembly three years ago.

These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals

這些是全體的、 有抱負的、轉型的目標，

for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system.

在穩定的地球系統上， 讓人類能夠共榮。

But there are underlying problems.

但這背後有些問題。

We have inherent contradictions between these goals,

在這些目標之間， 本來就有所矛盾，

where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others.

追求一個目標時， 代價可能會是另一個目標。

Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth.

比如，以第 8 項目標為例： 尊嚴工作帶動經濟成長。

If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources

若我們持續這麼做的方式 是使用自然資源和燃燒化石燃料，

and burning fossil fuels,

it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.

就不可能達成第 13 項目標。

Three years down the line, we simply must admit

已經過了 3 年，我們必須要承認，

we're seeing limited action to really, really address this

我們很少有看到任何行動 真正將這個議題

as an inclusive, collective, universal package.

當作廣泛、集體、全體的 一組整體來處理。

Now, this requires us to step back one step.

這就需要我們向後退一步。

I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions:

我認為我們必須要問 我們自己一些困難的問題：

Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?

我們是否有機會在 2030 年 完成永續發展目標？

Are there actually inherent trade-offs

是否在本質上有一些取捨

that are not compatible with our current development paradigm?

和我們目前的發展範式不相容？

But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change?

但，有沒有協同合作等等 可以讓我們真正加速改變？

And is it really a people-planet agenda,

它真的是一個 「人類—地球」議程，

really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals

真正有在地球的生命維持系統之下

嚴肅考量有抱負的 社會和經濟目標？

within the life-support systems on earth?

Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize

全世界的公民都開始認知到

that we're facing global rising environmental risks;

我們正面臨全球性的 環境風險都在上升；

in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite

事實上，穩定的星球 是必要的前提條件，

to have good human well-being on earth.

然後人類才有可能 在地球上安康樂利。

We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system,

我們需要在穩定的地球系統上 定義出一個安全生存空間，

and the planetary boundary framework was introduced

2009 年，科學界提出了

by the scientific community in 2009

地球限度架構，

to do exactly that.

就是這個目的。

It has now been widely embraced across the world

這個架構現在已 在全世界被廣為接受，

in policy, business and communities

在政策、企業，以及社區內

as a framework for sustainable development

被當作是人類世的永續發展架構。

in the Anthropocene.

This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes

這張投影片上的就是這個架構，

及 9 個環境過程，

that regulate the stability of the earth system,

用以調節地球系統的穩定度， 提供安全生存空間，

providing a safe operating space,

where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being

我們才能有很大的機會能達成

安康樂利、繁榮興盛，以及平等。

and prosperity and equity.

If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;

如果我們移入黃色地帶， 就是進入了危險的不確定地帶；

and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points

紅色地帶則表示 很有可能過了臨界點，

that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system

會讓地球系統越來越 無法為人類提供社會

to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.

和經濟的安康樂利， 而這是個不可逆的後果。

Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries,

現今，我們可以用科學的方式

將這些限度給量化，

providing us a stable earth system for humanity.

提供人類一個穩定的地球系統。

But we have to go beyond this

但我們必須要超越它，

and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals --

要認知到永續發展目標—— 若我們真心想要認真達成它們——

if we really want to seriously accomplish them --

must now occur within this safe operating space.

現在就必須要在這個 安全生存空間中發生。

We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.

我們需要在地球限度之內 達成永續發展目標。

But dear friends, not even this is enough.

但，親愛的朋友們， 就算這樣也還不足夠。

We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals

我們必須要認知到，

要達到永續發展目標，只剩十二年。

is 12 years away.

It's only a milestone.

它只是一個里程碑。

It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through

它是我們需要穿過的靶心，

and zoom ourselves towards transformations

將我們自己推向轉變，

where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth,

才能為地球上的所有共同公民 創造出一個美好未來，

nine billion plus,

讓超過 90 億人 生活在穩定的地球系統中，

within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.

在 2050 年達成並持續下去。

This is a quest,

這是一項追尋，

and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it,

為了要真正去做探索， 而不只是有口頭意見，

we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers

我們集結了科學界， 最好的思想家和建模者，

and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model,

開始發展一個全新的 複雜系統動態模型，

the Earth-3 model,

「地球 3 號」，

building on models that have been around for the last 50 years.

建基於這 50 年已有的模型。

And here it is.

就是它。

This is a fantastic piece of work.

它是個很棒的傑作。

This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model;

它有氣候模組、生物圈模組、 全球經濟模組；

it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments.

它有演算法，

它有一大堆不凡的成果。

This is what turns us scientists on.

它能讓我們科學家動情。（笑聲）

(Laughter)

我的意思是，它是很美好的傑作。

I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work?

And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you,

我很想要用整晚的時間 帶各位了解它，

but I'll make you disappointed.

但我會讓你們失望。

I cannot do that.

我無法這麼做。

In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you

事實上，我唯一能為你們做的

就是向你們保證它是史無前例的。

that this is the first time it's done.

Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine

從來沒有人試圖在分析面上

the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries.

將永續發展目標和地球限度結合。

And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends

我們有辦法找到模式

和真正的收斂趨勢，

that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project

這讓我們很有信心， 相信我們現在有能力可以企劃

經濟發展、

economic development,

resources use from water, food and energy,

水、食物，和能源的資源使用、

population growth, income per person,

人口成長、人均收入，

yet along these consistent and systemic pathways.

而且還能維持一致性和系統性。

So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity

這是頭一次，我們有 穩定健全的機會，

to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.

能夠真正去探索未來在地球限度之內 達成永續發展目標的能力。

Now, how do we do this?

我們要如何做到？看看這個。

Well, look at this.

Here, you have the data coming from the real world,

這裡，有來自真實世界的資料，

calibrated from 1970-2015:

校正為 1970 年到 2015 年：

100,000 data points around the world,

全世界的 10 萬個資料點，

building on seven regions' ability,

表示 7 個地區真正能處理

of really picking on all these Sustainable Development Goals.

所有這些永續發展目標的能力。

Now, one example of how we calibrated this,

舉例來說明我們如何校正它，

這裡有永續發展目標的資料，

here you have [data] for Sustainable Development Goals

on eradicating poverty, health, education and food.

內容是關於根除貧窮、 健康、教育，以及食物。

And here you have in the bubbles the seven regions of the world,

這些泡泡是世界上的 7 個區域，

how they move up until 2015 in our empirical observations

可以看見截至 2015 年，

隨著這些區域的人均 GDP

in relation to GDP per capita,

相關經驗觀察值如何向上爬升，

giving these universal convergent trends,

產生這些全球的收斂趨勢，

which enabled us to create regressions

讓我們能建立迴歸模型，

that could make us able to do simulations into the future,

這麼一來就可以做出

一直到 2050 的未來模擬，

all the way until 2050,

showing the ability along the lines here to attain the SDGs.

呈現出用這裡的方式 來達成永續發展目標的能力。

Now, this gave us the opportunity of doing several scenarios,

這讓我們有機會可以做幾種情境，

testing different possible futures:

測試不同的可能未來：

business as usual, global transformations,

照常營運，全球轉型，

investment schemes in business, different governance options,

企業的投資計畫， 不同的治理選項，

policies, finance --

政策，金融——

really, to explore what the future can look like

去探究以我們在地球限度的範圍內 達成永續發展目標的能力，

in our ability to attain the SDGs within PBs.

未來可以變成什麼樣子。

And the results, I can tell you, really surprised us.

我可以告訴各位的是， 結果讓我們很驚訝。

And this will be the first time it's shown.

這將會是頭一次呈現出來。

It should actually not even be referenced outside of this room.

甚至在這間房間以外的地方 都不應該提到它。

Now, it actually is presented along two axes.

它其實是用兩個軸來呈現。

The y-axis here shows our ability to stay within planetary boundaries.

這裡的 Y 軸是我們保持 在地球限度內的能力。

The higher up, the closer you are to the safe operating space.

越上面就表示你越接近 安全生存空間。

On the x-axis are the Sustainable Development Goals;

X 軸是永續發展目標；

the further to the right, the more of the SDGs we fulfill.

越右邊表示我們能實現 越多永續發展目標。

We all want to be in the upper right-hand corner,

我們都希望能落在右上角，

the safe and just world for the future.

表示未來有安全且公平的世界。

Now, the point you see there is 1980.

各位看到的這個點，是 1980 年。

We were in a situation where we actually were in a safe operating space

我們當時的情況是 處在安全生存空間中，

but not meeting so many of the SDGs.

但還沒有實現很多永續發展目標。

Here's the trend up until 2015.

這是一直到 2015 年的趨勢。

So this is the conventional world,

這是傳統的世界，

which is actually delivering on an increasing number of SDGs,

它真的能實現越來越多的 永續發展目標，

lifting millions of people out of poverty,

讓數百萬人脫離貧困，

but doing it at the expense of the safe operating space on earth.

但這麼做的代價卻是 地球上的安全生存空間。

Now, this is the scenario business as usual, into the future.

這就是照常營運， 朝未來前進的情境。

If we just move on as today,

如果我們就這樣走下去，

we will be able to deliver on some of the SDGs,

我們將能夠實現一些永續發展目標，

but we'll do it at the expense of the stability of the earth system.

但我們會付出的代價是 地球系統的穩定度。

Now, what if we go faster on economic growth

如果我們把經濟成長加速，

and really ally on one percent increase per year of income

真正做到每年收入增加 1%，

and an even tripling of the world economy by 2050?

甚至到了 2050 年 讓世界經濟變成 3 倍呢？

That would give us the following trajectory.

那就會產生下列的軌跡。

We would, yes, go a little bit further on SDG accomplishments,

的確，我們在永續發展目標的 完成度上會有進步，

but still at the expense of the risk of destabilizing the planet.

但代價仍然會是有讓地球 穩定度下降的風險。

But what if we really go harder?

但如果我們真的很努力呢？

What if we increase our ability to deliver on our promises by 30 percent

如果把我們實現 諾言的能力增加 30%，

across all sectors in society,

涵蓋社會上的各個部門，

from climate to our trade agreements?

從氣候到貿易協定？

A harder scenario would take us a little bit better,

這個比較努力的情境 會讓我們有更好一點的結果，

but still, we're failing on the SDGs,

但我們仍然做不到永續發展目標，

and we are not accomplishing a safe operating space for humanity.

且我們也沒有達成 人類的安全生存空間。

So this really led us to a quite disappointing conclusion,

所以這其實會帶領我們 走向讓人失望的結論，

that we will actually, even if we go conventional futures, fail on the SDGs

即：即使我們選擇傳統方式的未來，

還是做不到永續發展目標， 且會超過地球限度。

and transgress planetary boundaries.

We need some radical thinking.

我們需要一些根本性思考。 我們必須要進入

We need to go into a transformative, disruptive future,

一個轉型的、顛覆性的未來，

where we start thinking outside of the box.

在這個未來， 我們可以跳出框框思考。

The modeling and engagement and dialogues enable us to identify

建模、參與、對話， 讓我們可以找出 5 種轉型，

five transformations that could actually potentially take us there.

真的有機會帶我們走向這樣的未來。

The first one is to cut emissions by half every decade

第 1 種是每 10 年 就讓排放量減半，

along the scientific pathway to Paris,

朝巴黎協議努力，

doubling investments in renewable energy,

把對於再生能源的投資加倍，

creating a global energy democracy,

創造出全球能源民主，

allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.

讓我們可以達成 好幾個永續發展模型。

The second is a rapid shift towards sustainable food systems,

第 2 種是快速轉換， 轉為永續食物系統，

investing one percent per year in sustainable intensification

每年投資 1% 做永續的強化，

and really moving towards implementing and investing in solutions

真正邁向導入及投資我們現今

that we already have available today.

已經可取得的解決方案。

The third is really to shift our development paradigm

第 3 種是真正轉換 我們的發展範式，

and learn from many of the developing countries

並向許多快速前進的 開發中國家學習。

that have moved very fast.

What if we could have an economic growth such as in China,

如果我們能夠有 中國那樣的經濟成長，

while doing it within the environmental parameters

而且是在生態文明的

環境參數之內辦到，如何？

of an ecological civilization?

Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.

第 4 種，財富重新分配。

What if we could [agree] that the richest 10 percent

如果我們能同意，最有錢的 10% 人

不能讓自己積聚的最大值超過

could not allow themselves to amass more than 40 percent, maximum,

全國收入的 40% ——

of national incomes --

a drastic redistribution of wealth,

財富的極端重新分配，

reforming the ability of equity across regions?

重新形成各區域 平等的能力，如何？

And finally, fifth, a radical increase in more education, health,

最後，第 5 種， 從根本上增加更多教育、

access to work, contraception,

健康、工作機會、避孕、

investing largely in women across the world,

在全世界大量投資女性，

allowing us to deliver on SDGs on gender, inequality,

讓我們能實現關於 性別、不平等、經濟，

和都市發展的永續發展目標。

economics and urban development.

Now, if we would push ourselves across all these five --

如果我們要在這 5 種 轉型上都加把勁——

we tested this, and it would give us an amazing journey

我們做過測試了，結果是會讓我們

踏上一段很了不起的旅程，

towards the safe and just operating space on earth.

目標是地球上創造安全、 公平的生存空間。

It shows us that even with a conservative, empirically based,

我們可以看到， 即使是用一個保守、

以經驗為基礎的 複雜系統動態模型，

complex system dynamics model,

we are at a state where we can actually think of transformations

我們的狀態仍然是可以真正去思考

接下來 12 年及之後的轉變，

over the next 12 years and beyond

that can take us up into the safe operating space

來帶我們進入安全生存空間，

and deliver on aspirational social and economic goals.

實現很有抱負的社會和經濟目標。

This is actually quite uplifting,

這其實相當讓人振奮，

despite the fact that we're not moving along this trajectory.

儘管我們現在並沒有 延著這個軌跡移動。

So, in summary:

所以，總結一下：

we now, three years into the operational delivery on the SDGs,

在運作上去履行永續發展目標 已經有 3 年的時間，

must draw a line

我們必須要畫一條線，

and conclude that we're not delivering on our promises,

斷定我們並沒有實現我們的諾言，

and not only that, we're running the risks

不僅如此，我們還冒著

of future generations having an even tougher ability,

讓未來世代更辛苦的風險，

because of the risk of pushing the earth system beyond tipping points.

因為有可能會把地球系統 推向臨界點之外。

In fact, we are facing even a risk of a hothouse earth,

事實上，我們甚至 要面對溫室地球的風險，

where we will undermine and create geopolitical instabilities

這樣我們會逐漸造成損害， 導致地理政治上的不穩定，

that could actually make life even more tough

讓地球上數十億人的生活更困難。

for billions of people on earth.

This, in all honesty, really, really scares me.

老實說，這真的很讓我害怕。

But that's also why I'm standing here tonight,

但這也是為什麼 今天晚上我會站在這裡，

because the window of success is still open.

因為通往成功的窗戶仍然開著。

The earth system is still resilient.

地球系統仍然有恢復力。

She is still providing us with ecosystem services and functions

她仍然在提供我們 生態系統服務和功能，

that can allow us a transition back into a safe operating space.

讓我們可以做出轉型， 回到安全生存空間。

But we need radically different thinking.

但我們需要從根本上 就不同的思考。

We need to see this as an incredible wake-up call

我們需要把它視為是 喚醒我們的警訊，

but also an opportunity for transformative change,

以及做出轉型式改變的機會，

where we shift gears

讓我們換檔，真正開始 把永續發展目標想成是

and really start thinking of the SDGs as a transformative agenda

地球上安全生存 空間中的轉變式議程。

within a safe operating space on earth.

In other words, we can build a safe and just world.

換言之，我們能建立 安全、公平的世界。

We just have to really, really get on with it.

我們只需要真正持續好好去做它。

And let's do it. Thank you.

我們來做吧。謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）