Climate change is becoming a problem you can taste | Amanda Little

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Joanna Pietrulewicz

翻译人员: Yuyi Liu 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

In the early months of the pandemic,

在疫情的最初几个月，

chef José Andrés circulated two photos

厨师何塞·安德烈斯传出了两张

that have come to symbolize a modern American food crisis.

标志着现代美国食物危机的照片。

The first shows mountains of potatoes

第一张是爱达荷州成堆成堆

that have been left to rot in a field in Idaho.

被丢弃的腐烂土豆。

The restaurants and cafeterias and stadiums that had consumed them

那些原本食用它们的餐厅， 咖啡厅和体育馆

were shuttered during the pandemic.

全都在疫情期间关门了。

The second shows a devastating scene outside of the San Antonio food bank.

第二张是圣安东尼奥市 食物银行外灾难性的一幕，

Thousands of carloads of people lined up,

成千上万载满了人的汽车

waiting for food with not enough supply to go around.

正因粮食短缺而排队等候食物。

"How is it possible these two photos exist at the same time,

“这两张照片怎么可能同时存在呢，

in the most prosperous

而且是在历史上最繁荣，

and technologically advanced moment in our history," tweeted Andrés.

科技最发达的时代。” 安德烈斯在发文时尖锐地问到。

In the months after the photos were published,

照片公开后的几个月，

the crisis got worse.

危机变得更严重了。

Billions of pounds of potatoes and other fresh produce

数十亿磅的土豆和其他新鲜食材

were chucked by American farmers.

全部被美国农民们丢进了垃圾堆。

At the same time,

与此同时，

food banks all over the country were reporting demand increases

全国范围内的食物银行 都在报告需求的增长，

and 40 percent were facing critical shortfalls.

其中 40% 面临严重短缺。

Outside the US,

美国之外，

especially in the Middle East and throughout Southeastern Africa,

尤其是中东和非洲东南部地区，

COVID-19 was paralyzing food systems that were already vulnerable.

新冠病毒使原本已经很脆弱的 粮食系统全面瘫痪。

Oxfam has predicted that by the end of 2020

据乐施会预测，到 2020 年底，

12,000 people per day could die of hunger related to COVID.

平均每天可能会有 12000 人 死于疫情引发的饥荒。

That's more than the highest daily mortality rate

这比有史以来记载的 最高日死亡率

recorded so far.

还要高。

But what's worse

然而更糟糕，

and what's much more concerning to all of us

也更值得我们关心的是，

is that COVID is just one of many major disruptions

根据预测， 新冠病毒只是未来数十年

that have been predicted

可能发生的众多重大灾难的

in the years and decades ahead.

其中之一。

More chronic and complex than the pressures of COVID

比新冠病毒更缓慢，且更复杂的

are the pressures of climate change.

是气候变化带来的压力。

And those of you who live in California have seen this on your farms.

住在加利福利亚的人 已经在你们的农场上目睹了。

You've seen withering heat and drought and fires

你们目睹了高温、干旱和大火

disrupt avocado and almond and citrus and strawberry farms.

大肆破坏了牛油果、杏仁、 柑橘和草莓农场。

This summer, we saw the devastating impacts of storms

这个夏天，我们目睹了沙尘暴

on corn and soy farms.

对玉米和大豆田的毁灭性影响。

I've seen the various pressures of drought,

我见过干旱、

heat, flooding, superstorms,

高温、洪水、飓风、

invasive insects, bacterial blight,

入侵性昆虫、细菌性疾病、

shifting seasons and weather volatility

换季和天气动荡带来的种种压力。

from Washington to Florida,

从华盛顿到弗罗里达，

and from Guatemala to Australia.

从危地马拉到澳大利亚。

The upshot is this.

结论就是，

Climate change is becoming something we can taste.

气候变化正成为一种 我们可以亲身感知的东西。

This is a kitchen-table issue in the literal sense.

从本质上来说， 就是一个餐桌问题。

The International Panel on Climate Change

国际气候变化专门委员会

has predicted that by mid-century

已经预测，到本世纪中期，

the world may reach a threshold of global warming

世界将有可能达到 一个全球变暖的门槛，

beyond which current agricultural practices

到时候目前的农业生产

can no longer support large human civilizations.

将无法继续支撑巨大的人类文明。

The USDA scientist Jerry Hatfield put it to me this way:

美国农业部科学家 杰瑞·哈特菲尔德这么解释：

the single biggest threat of climate change

气候变化带来的最大威胁

is the collapse of food systems.

是粮食系统的崩溃。

The reality we face,

我们所面对的现实，

one that was exposed by those mountains of potatoes

一个已经被疫情期间成堆的土豆

and the cars lined up during the pandemic,

和成群结伴排队等候的汽车 暴露的现实，

is that our supply chains are antiquated.

就是我们的供应链已经过时了。

Our food systems have not been designed

我们的粮食系统不是

to adapt to major disruptions or preempt them.

为了适应重大破坏而设计的。

Addressing this challenge as much as any other

如何应对这一挑战 以及其他任何挑战，

is going to define our progress in the coming century.

都将定义我们在新世纪的进程。

But there's good news.

但好消息是，

And the good news is that farmers and entrepreneurs and academics

农民、企业家和学者们

are radically rethinking national and global food systems.

都在重新思考 全国和全球的粮食系统。

They are marrying principles of old-world agroecology

他们把旧世界的农业生态学理论

and state-of-the-art technologies

与最先进的技术结合，

to create what I call a third way to our food future.

创造了我称之为发展 我们的粮食未来的第三种途径。

We're going to see radical changes

接下来几十年，我们将会看到

in what we grow and how we eat in the coming decades,

我们种植的品种和饮食方式

as these environmental and population

将会随着环境、人口

and public health pressures intensify.

和公共卫生压力的增大 而发生根本性的改变。

I studied these changes for my book "The Fate of Food:

我为我的书《食物的命运：

What We'll Eat in a Bigger, Hotter, Smarter World."

在一个更大、更热、更先进的世界里 我们吃什么》进行了相关研究。

I traveled for five years into the lands and the minds

我旅行了五年， 深入了解那些塑造食物未来的

and the machines that are shaping the future of food.

土地、思想和机器。

My travels took me through 15 countries and 18 states,

我走过 15 个国家和 18 个州，

from apple orchards in Wisconsin to tiny cornfields in Kenya,

从威斯康星州的苹果园 到肯尼亚的小玉米田，

to massive Norwegian fish farms

再到挪威的大型养鱼场，

and computerized foodscapes in Shanghai.

以及上海的计算机化食品景观。

I investigated new ideas,

我研究新的概念，

like robotics and CRISPR and vertical farms.

比如机器人、基因编辑技术 和垂直农场。

And old ideas, like edible insects and permaculture and ancient plants.

也研究老的点子，比如可食用昆虫 和永生的古老植物。

I began to see the emergence of this third way to food production.

我开始看到粮食生产的 第三种途径的浮现，

A synthesis of the traditional and the radically new.

一种传统与现代的融合。

There's a growing controversy

发展未来食品安全的最好途径

about the best path to future food security in the US.

在美国正引发越来越多的争议。

Food is ripe for reinvention, Bill Gates has proclaimed.

比尔‧盖茨宣称，粮食产业已经 成熟到可以对其进行重塑了。

Huge flows of investment

大量投资正在为

are funding new methods of climate-smart and high-tech agriculture.

气候智能和高科技农业的新措施 提供资金。

But many sustainable food advocates bristle at this idea of reinvention.

但许多可持续食品倡导者 对这种重塑的想法感到愤怒。

They want food deinvented.

他们想要反重塑食物。

They argue for a return to preindustrial

他们主张回到工业革命

and pre-green revolution,

和绿色革命之前的

biodynamic and organic farming.

生物动力和有机农业。

To which skeptics inevitably respond,

怀疑论者不可避免地回应

"Nice, but does it scale?

“好是好，但是它的规模能扩展吗？

Sure, a return to traditional farming methods

回归传统农业生产方法

could produce better food,

自然可以生产出更好的食物，

but can it produce enough food that's affordable?"

但这样能生产出量足够多， 且价格低廉的食物吗？“

The rift between the reinvention camp and the deinvention camp

重塑和反重塑两大阵营之间的分歧

has existed for decades.

已经存在几十年了。

But now it's a raging battle.

但现在已经上升成了 一场激烈的斗争。

One side covets the past,

一方觊觎过去，

the other side covets the future

另一方觊觎未来，

and as someone observing this from the outside,

作为一个外部观察者，

I began to wonder, why must it be so binary?

我逐渐开始思考， 为什么非要这样非此即彼呢？

Can't there be a synthesis of the two approaches?

就不能把两种方法合二为一吗？

Our challenge is to borrow from the wisdom of the ages,

我们的挑战是从历史中汲取智慧，

and from our most advanced science,

并结合发达的现代科技，

to forge this third way.

来开辟第三种途径。

One that allows us to improve and scale our harvests,

一种允许我们改进并扩大收成，

while restoring rather than degrading

同时恢复而不是降低我们

the underlying web of life.

赖以生存的生命之网的新途径。

I belong to neither camp.

我不属于任何一个阵营。

I'm a failed vegan and a lapsed vegetarian,

我是个失败的素食主义者，

and a terrible backyard farmer.

还非常不擅长管理自家的菜园。

If I'm honest,

老实说，

I will keep trying at this, but I may fail.

我还是会在这方面继续努力， 但还是可能失败。

But I'm hell-bent on hope,

但我对此满怀希望，

and if my travels have taught me anything,

如果我的旅行经历 教会了我什么事，

it's that there's good reason for hope.

那就是永远有充分的理由去希望。

Plenty of solutions are merging

大量的能帮助建立

that can help build sustainable, resilient food systems.

可持续发展且有弹性的食物系统的 解决方案正在融合。

Even if we can't rely on a critical mass

即使我们不能依赖

of backyard-farming vegetarians to do this on their own,

大量的素食主义者们从头开始

from the ground up.

在自家后院种菜。

Let's start with artificial intelligence and robotics.

我们从人工智能和机器人说起。

Jorge Heraud is a Peruvian-born engineer

豪尔赫·赫罗（Jorge Heraud） 是一名在秘鲁出生，

who now lives in Silicon Valley,

现居硅谷的工程师，

and his company developed a robotic weeder named See and Spray,

他的公司研发出了一种叫 “边看边喷”的除草机器人，

and I went to Arkansas to see the maiden voyage of See and Spray.

当我去阿肯色州看 “边看边喷”的处女秀时，

And I was half expecting a battalion of C3PO-style robots

我原本期待的是一个营的 《星球大战》斯瑞皮欧式机器人

to march into the fields with pincer hands to pluck the weeds.

进军田野， 用它们钳子式的手除草。

And instead, I found this.

然而我看到的却是

A tractor with a big, white hoop skirt off the back of it.

一个后面拖着巨大白色裙撑的拖拉机。

And inside that hoop skirt are 24 cameras

裙撑里面有 24 个摄像头，

that use computer vision to see the ground beneath

利用计算机视觉技术观察地面，

and to distinguish between the plants and the weeds.

区分植物和杂草。

And to deploy with sniper-like precision

并如狙击手般精准部署

these tiny jets of concentrated fertilizer,

这些装有浓缩肥料

or herbicide,

或除草剂的微型喷药器，

that incinerate the baby weeds.

把杂草扼杀在摇篮里。

I learned how robotics can end the practice

于是我了解到 机器人是如何终结了

of broadcast spraying chemicals across millions of acres of land

在数百万亩地上 无差别的农药喷洒方式，

and how we can reduce the use of herbicides

以及我们如何能减少

by up to 90 percent.

高达 90% 的除草剂使用。

But the bigger picture is even more exciting.

而更大的蓝图更振奋人心。

Intelligent machines can treat plants individually,

智能机器能对植物进行逐一处理，

applying not just herbicides

不仅可以使用除草剂，

but fungicides and insecticides

还可以使用杀菌剂、杀虫剂

and fertilizers on a plant-by-plant, rather than field-by-field basis.

和肥料，对植物进行一对一处理， 而不是一块田一块田的广式喷洒。

So that eventually,

久而久之，

this kind of hyperspecific farming

这种超精准耕作

can allow for more diversity and intercropping on fields.

能给农田创造 更多的作物多样性和间作。

And big farms can begin to mimic natural systems

大农场可以开始模拟自然系统

and improve soil health.

并改善土壤健康。

Heraud is the embodiment of third-way thinking, right?

赫罗体现的不正是第三种途径吗？

Robots, he told me,

他告诉我，机器人

don't have to remove us from nature,

不必非得将我们从自然中分离，

they can bring us closer to it, they can restore it.

它们可以拉近并修复 我们与自然之间的关系。

Increasing crop diversity will be crucial

增加作物多样性

to building resilient food systems.

对于建立有弹性的 粮食系统至关重要。

And so will decentralizing agriculture

同时还可以进行农业去中心化，

so that when farmers in one region are disrupted,

这样就算一个地区的农民们 被迫中断耕作，

the others around, they can keep growing.

周边地区的其他农民 仍可以继续耕作。

The rise of vertical farms,

垂直农场的兴起，

like this farm, built inside a former steel mill in Newark, New Jersey,

比如这个建在新泽西州 纽瓦克一家废弃钢铁厂里的农场，

can play a key role in decentralizing agriculture.

能在农业去中心化中 起到关键作用。

Aeroponic farms use a tiny fraction

航空农场的用水量只占

of the water that is used in in-ground farms.

地下农场用水量的极小一部分。

And they can grow food much faster, about 40 percent faster.

而它们的粮食种植速度 却快了差不多 40%。

And when located in and near cities,

当它们位于靠近

where the food is consumed,

消费粮食的城市的时候，

they eliminate a huge amount of trucking and food waste.

可以大幅度减少运输和食物浪费。

It struck me at first as creepy

起初，它以一种 “悄无声息的运行”的方式

in kind of a "Silent Running" way

令我毛骨悚然，

that we'd be growing our future fruits and vegetables

也就是说，未来我们将在 没有土壤和阳光的室内

inside, without soil or sun.

种植水果和蔬菜。

And after weeks of spending time in these plant factories,

但在这些植物工厂呆了几周后，

I began to see it as oddly, almost perfectly natural

我开始看到它们能够神奇地， 甚至可以说是完全自然，

to deliver the plants only and exactly what they need,

且恰到好处地给植物 输送它们所需要的养分，

with zero herbicides and radical efficiency.

不需要使用除草剂， 而且效率惊人。

Here again, we see innovators borrowing from,

再一次，我们看到了 创新者们借鉴，

and perhaps even elevating the wisdom of natural ecosystems.

甚至是改进自然生态系统的智慧。

Developments in plant-based and alternative meats

植物肉和肉类替代品方面的发展

are also profoundly hopeful.

也让人充满希望。

And they follow a similar trend

它们朝着一个相似的趋势发展，

toward local, resilient, low-carbon protein production.

也就是本地化、弹性化、 低碳蛋白化的生产趋势。

Consumers are excited about this,

消费者对此很兴奋，

and during the pandemic,

疫情期间，

we've seen a 250 percent increase

我们看到了肉类替代品

in demand for alternative meats.

高达 250% 的需求增长。

A study by the Journal of Clinical Nutrition

临床营养杂志的一项研究表明，

found that the participants who were eating the plant-based proteins

参与者中吃植物性蛋白质的人，

saw a drop in their cholesterol levels,

他们的胆固醇含量、

in their weight

体重、

and eventually, a drop in their risk of heart disease.

患心脏病的风险都有所降低。

The potential environmental benefits of plant-based meats are astounding.

素肉的潜在环境效益令人震惊。

And there's even potential in lab-grown or cell-based meats.

甚至连培植肉或者说试管肉 都充满发展潜力。

Uma Valeti fed me my first plate of lab-grown duck breast,

乌玛·瓦莱蒂（Uma Valeti ）给我品尝了 我人生第一盘实验室培植的鸭肉，

harvested fresh from a bioreactor.

是从生物反应器中新鲜培植出来的，

It had been grown from a small sampling of cells

由从肌肉组织、 脂肪和结缔组织中

taken from muscle tissue and fat and connective tissues,

提取的一小部分细胞生长而成，

which is exactly what we eat when we eat meat.

也就是我们吃肉时 真正所吃的东西。

This lab-grown or cell-based duck meat

这种实验室培植或者说试管鸭肉

has very little threat of bacterial contamination,

几乎没有细胞污染的威胁，

it's about 85 percent lower CO2 emissions associated with it.

与之相关的二氧化碳排放 也减少了约 85％。

Eventually it can be grown

久而久之，它可以

like those crops inside vertical farms in decentralized facilities

像那些垂直农场上 去中心化设施里的玉米一样

that aren't vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions.

不会轻易受供应链破坏的影响。

Valeti started out as a cardiologist,

瓦莱蒂是一名心脏病学专家，

who understood that doctors have been developing

他深知科研人员已经在实验室

human and animal tissues in laboratories for decades.

研发人类和动物组织几十年了。

He was inspired as much by that

那些科研以及

as he was by a 1931 quote from Winston Churchill that says,

1931 年温斯顿·丘吉尔所说的一句话 都使他深受启发，

"We shall escape the absurdity of growing the whole chicken

“我们应该摒弃

in order to eat the breast or the wing,

为了吃鸡胸肉或鸡翅 而养整只鸡的荒谬方法，

by growing them separately in suitable mediums."

而要以在适当介质中 分开培育的方法取而代之。”

Like Heraud, Valeti is a quintessential third-way thinker.

和赫罗一样，瓦莱蒂是一个 精明的第三种途径思考者。

He's reimagined an old idea using new technology,

他利用新科技重新构想了旧点子，

to usher in a solution whose time has come.

开辟了一种新的解决办法， 也是时候这么干了。

I've met with dozens of farmers and entrepreneurs and engineers

我见过几十个农民、 企业家和工程师，

who emulate third-way thinking, all over the world.

正在全世界范围内 效仿第三种途径的思考方式。

They're using modern breeding tools like CRISPR

他们在利用现代育种工具， 比如基因编辑技术，

to develop nutritious heirloom crops that can withstand drought and heat.

开发有营养且可以 承受干旱和高温的祖传作物。

They're using AI to make aquaculture sustainable.

他们利用人工智能 实现可持续水产养殖，

They're finding ways to eliminate food waste.

并在寻找方法解决食物浪费问题。

They are scaling up

他们正在扩大

conservation agriculture and managed grazing.

保护性农业和管理放牧，

And they're reviving ancient plants,

同时恢复古老的植物，

and they're recycling sewage and gray water

回收污水和废水，

to develop a drought-proof water supply.

为抗旱供水。

The upshot is this:

结论就是，

Human innovation that marries old and new approaches to food production

我相信，结合了 新旧食物生产方法的人类创新

can, and I believe, will usher in this third way

能够，也将会开辟这第三种途径，

and redefine sustainable food on a grand scale.

并在大范围内 重新定义可持续食品。