Climate change is becoming a problem you can taste | Amanda Little

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Joanna Pietrulewicz

譯者: Regina Chu 審譯者: Yi-Ping Cho (Marssi)

In the early months of the pandemic,

新冠肺炎剛開始大流行的頭幾個月，

chef José Andrés circulated two photos

大廚何西．安德列斯傳了兩張照片，

that have come to symbolize a modern American food crisis.

象徵著現代美國的糧食危機。

The first shows mountains of potatoes

第一張上面看到堆積如山的馬鈴薯

that have been left to rot in a field in Idaho.

棄置在愛達荷州的田間放爛。

The restaurants and cafeterias and stadiums that had consumed them

原本要消耗它們的餐館、 自助餐廳及體育館，

were shuttered during the pandemic.

因為疫情大流行而關閉。

The second shows a devastating scene outside of the San Antonio food bank.

第二張則是德州聖安東尼奧市 食物銀行外的慘狀。

Thousands of carloads of people lined up,

成千上萬人在車隊裡

waiting for food with not enough supply to go around.

等著領不夠發的食物。

"How is it possible these two photos exist at the same time,

「這兩張照片怎麼可能同時出現在

in the most prosperous

我們有史以來最繁榮

and technologically advanced moment in our history," tweeted Andrés.

和科技最先進的時候？」 安德列斯如此推文。

In the months after the photos were published,

這兩張相片貼出後幾個月，

the crisis got worse.

這場危機變得更糟了。

Billions of pounds of potatoes and other fresh produce

數十億磅的馬鈴薯和其他的新鮮蔬果

were chucked by American farmers.

被美國農民棄置。

At the same time,

同時間，

food banks all over the country were reporting demand increases

全國各地的食物銀行都說需求量大增，

and 40 percent were facing critical shortfalls.

40% 面對糧食嚴重不足的現象。

Outside the US,

美國以外的地區，

especially in the Middle East and throughout Southeastern Africa,

尤其是中東及整個東南非，

COVID-19 was paralyzing food systems that were already vulnerable.

新冠肺炎癱瘓了 本來就很脆弱的糧食系統。

Oxfam has predicted that by the end of 2020

救援組織「樂施會」預測 到 2020 年底，

12,000 people per day could die of hunger related to COVID.

每天會有一萬二千人 死於因新冠肺炎而造成的饑荒。

That's more than the highest daily mortality rate

這比目前新冠肺炎最高的單日死亡率

recorded so far.

還要高。

But what's worse

但是更糟、

and what's much more concerning to all of us

更令我們擔憂的，

is that COVID is just one of many major disruptions

是新冠肺炎只不過是

未來數年到數十年 已預測的重大災難的其中一個。

that have been predicted

in the years and decades ahead.

More chronic and complex than the pressures of COVID

比新冠的壓力更漫長更複雜的

are the pressures of climate change.

是氣候變遷的壓力。

And those of you who live in California have seen this on your farms.

住在加州的觀眾 已經在自家農場看到這個景況。

You've seen withering heat and drought and fires

你們已經看到造成枯萎的 熱浪、乾旱及大火，

disrupt avocado and almond and citrus and strawberry farms.

使酪梨、杏仁、柑橘 及草莓田無法正常收成。

This summer, we saw the devastating impacts of storms

這個夏天，我們看到暴風雨

on corn and soy farms.

對玉米及黃豆田的破壞性影響。

I've seen the various pressures of drought,

我已經看過各式災難帶來的壓力，

heat, flooding, superstorms,

舉凡乾旱、熱浪、水災、超級風暴、

invasive insects, bacterial blight,

外來入侵的昆蟲、細菌性葉枯病、

shifting seasons and weather volatility

季節不規律及天氣大幅波動等等，

from Washington to Florida,

從華盛頓州到佛羅里達州，

and from Guatemala to Australia.

從瓜地馬拉到澳洲都可見到。

The upshot is this.

其結果就是這個。

Climate change is becoming something we can taste.

氣候變遷已經變成我們嘗得到的苦果。

This is a kitchen-table issue in the literal sense.

這真是柴米油鹽醬醋茶的字面呈現。

The International Panel on Climate Change

聯合國氣候變遷小組

has predicted that by mid-century

預測到了本世紀中，

the world may reach a threshold of global warming

這世界將達到全球暖化的關鍵門檻，

beyond which current agricultural practices

目前的農耕法

can no longer support large human civilizations.

將無法供給大型人類文明。

The USDA scientist Jerry Hatfield put it to me this way:

美國農業部的科學家哈特費德 這樣形容給我聽：

the single biggest threat of climate change

氣候變遷最大的威脅

is the collapse of food systems.

就是糧食系統崩潰。

The reality we face,

我們面對的現實，

one that was exposed by those mountains of potatoes

藉由在疫情期間成堆的馬鈴薯 及大排長龍的車隊

and the cars lined up during the pandemic,

暴露在我們的面前。

is that our supply chains are antiquated.

證明我們的供應鏈過時了。

Our food systems have not been designed

我們的糧食系統沒有設計成

to adapt to major disruptions or preempt them.

能適應甚至預先防範重大破壞。

Addressing this challenge as much as any other

因應這個挑戰就跟其他挑戰一樣，

is going to define our progress in the coming century.

將在未來一個世紀定義我們的進展。

But there's good news.

但是我們有好消息。

And the good news is that farmers and entrepreneurs and academics

這個好消息就是農民、 企業家及學術界

are radically rethinking national and global food systems.

正在徹底重新思考 國家及全球糧食系統。

They are marrying principles of old-world agroecology

他們將舊世界的農業生態學原則

and state-of-the-art technologies

與最先進的科技結合，

to create what I call a third way to our food future.

創造出我稱為 通往食物未來的第三條路線。

We're going to see radical changes

我們將在未來數十年

in what we grow and how we eat in the coming decades,

看到我們在種植及飲食上的劇烈改變，

as these environmental and population

因為種種環境及人口

and public health pressures intensify.

及公共健康的壓力加劇。

I studied these changes for my book "The Fate of Food:

我會研究這些改變是為了寫我的書

《糧食的命運：在更大、更熱、 更聰明的世界我們要吃什麼？》

What We'll Eat in a Bigger, Hotter, Smarter World."

I traveled for five years into the lands and the minds

我旅行了五年，

深入會改變未來糧食的 土地及心智還有機器。

and the machines that are shaping the future of food.

My travels took me through 15 countries and 18 states,

我的旅程帶著我走過 十五個國家及十八個州，

from apple orchards in Wisconsin to tiny cornfields in Kenya,

從威斯康辛州的蘋果園 到肯亞的小小玉米田，

to massive Norwegian fish farms

到龐大的挪威漁業養殖場，

and computerized foodscapes in Shanghai.

及上海由電腦管理的食材造景花園。

I investigated new ideas,

我研究新的想法，

like robotics and CRISPR and vertical farms.

如機器人及基因編輯及垂直農場。

And old ideas, like edible insects and permaculture and ancient plants.

以及舊的想法，

如可食昆蟲及樸門農法及古代植物。

I began to see the emergence of this third way to food production.

我開始看到這個 第三種糧食生產的興起。

A synthesis of the traditional and the radically new.

綜合傳統及創新。

There's a growing controversy

有愈來愈多的人在爭論

about the best path to future food security in the US.

到底怎麼做才會對 美國未來的糧食安全最好。

Food is ripe for reinvention, Bill Gates has proclaimed.

比爾．蓋茲宣稱 食物已經熟到可以重做了，

Huge flows of investment

大量資金湧入，

are funding new methods of climate-smart and high-tech agriculture.

投資於具氣候智慧的 新方法及高科技農業。

But many sustainable food advocates bristle at this idea of reinvention.

但是許多永續農業倡導人 對重塑這個想法很生氣。

They want food deinvented.

他們不要創新食物。

They argue for a return to preindustrial

他們主張要回到前工業社會

and pre-green revolution,

及前綠色革命，

biodynamic and organic farming.

生物動力及有機農業。

To which skeptics inevitably respond,

但是懷疑的人一定會這樣回應：

"Nice, but does it scale?

「很好啊，但是要怎麼量產？

Sure, a return to traditional farming methods

當然，回到傳統農法

could produce better food,

可以生產更好的食物，

but can it produce enough food that's affordable?"

但是能生產出足夠 又負擔得起的糧食嗎？」

The rift between the reinvention camp and the deinvention camp

重塑與反重塑陣營間的嫌隙

has existed for decades.

早已存在多年。

But now it's a raging battle.

但是現在這變成激烈的戰鬥。

One side covets the past,

一方嚮往著過去，

the other side covets the future

另一方則嚮往著未來。

and as someone observing this from the outside,

身為從旁觀察的局外人，

I began to wonder, why must it be so binary?

我不禁納悶，為什麼一定要這麼分歧？

Can't there be a synthesis of the two approaches?

難道沒有什麼方法能綜合兩者？

Our challenge is to borrow from the wisdom of the ages,

我們的挑戰是要採取歷代累積的智慧

and from our most advanced science,

及借用我們最先進的科技

to forge this third way.

打造出第三種方法。

One that allows us to improve and scale our harvests,

這種方法要能讓我們 改良及擴大收成，

while restoring rather than degrading

同時還能恢復而非破壞

the underlying web of life.

潛在的生命網絡。

I belong to neither camp.

我不屬於任何一方。

I'm a failed vegan and a lapsed vegetarian,

我是個失敗的純素主義者， 吃素也總是無法持續，

and a terrible backyard farmer.

也是個糟透的後院農夫。

If I'm honest,

如果我誠實，

I will keep trying at this, but I may fail.

我會繼續嘗試，但是我大概會失敗。

But I'm hell-bent on hope,

但是我拚死懷抱希望，

and if my travels have taught me anything,

如果要說我的旅程教會我什麼，

it's that there's good reason for hope.

那就是我們有很好的理由懷抱希望。

Plenty of solutions are merging

大量的解決方法正在合流，

that can help build sustainable, resilient food systems.

可以幫助建立 永續有恢復力的糧食系統。

Even if we can't rely on a critical mass

即使我們沒有足夠的素食者

of backyard-farming vegetarians to do this on their own,

在後院種蔬菜給自己吃，

from the ground up.

從頭開始種植。

Let's start with artificial intelligence and robotics.

我們可以從人工智慧及機器人開始。

Jorge Heraud is a Peruvian-born engineer

何勞德是位祕魯出生的工程師，

who now lives in Silicon Valley,

現在住在矽谷，

and his company developed a robotic weeder named See and Spray,

他的公司開發了一種機器人除草機 叫做 See and Spray （看與噴）。

and I went to Arkansas to see the maiden voyage of See and Spray.

我去阿肯薩州看首發會。

And I was half expecting a battalion of C3PO-style robots

我以為會是像星際大戰 C3PO 那種機器人大隊

to march into the fields with pincer hands to pluck the weeds.

進軍田野，用鉗子手拔草。

And instead, I found this.

但我卻看到這個。

A tractor with a big, white hoop skirt off the back of it.

一台拖拉機，後面拉著一條 很大的白色蓬蓬裙。

And inside that hoop skirt are 24 cameras

這條蓬蓬裙裡面裝了 24 個攝影機，

that use computer vision to see the ground beneath

用電腦視覺來看底下的地面

and to distinguish between the plants and the weeds.

並區分植物及雜草。

And to deploy with sniper-like precision

然後噴射出如狙擊般精準的

these tiny jets of concentrated fertilizer,

濃縮肥料噴霧，

or herbicide,

或除草劑，

that incinerate the baby weeds.

來燒掉野草苗。

I learned how robotics can end the practice

我學到機器人可以終結老的農作法，

of broadcast spraying chemicals across millions of acres of land

不用在橫跨數百萬英畝的土地上 廣施化學肥料，

and how we can reduce the use of herbicides

以及我們可以如何減少使用殺草劑

by up to 90 percent.

高達 90%。

But the bigger picture is even more exciting.

但是大局更令人興奮。

Intelligent machines can treat plants individually,

智慧機器可以將植株個別處理，

applying not just herbicides

不但可以施除草劑，

but fungicides and insecticides

還可以施殺菌劑及殺蟲劑

and fertilizers on a plant-by-plant, rather than field-by-field basis.

及施肥——根據個別植株灑藥， 而非整片田一起灑。

So that eventually,

所以到最後，

this kind of hyperspecific farming

這種高特異性的農作法

can allow for more diversity and intercropping on fields.

可以讓田間更多樣化， 也能實施間作法。

And big farms can begin to mimic natural systems

大農可以開始模擬自然系統

and improve soil health.

並改良土質。

Heraud is the embodiment of third-way thinking, right?

何勞德是不是在體現第三條路線思維？

Robots, he told me,

他告訴我，機器人

don't have to remove us from nature,

不必將我們從自然界中除去，

they can bring us closer to it, they can restore it.

它們可以使我們更接近自然， 它們可以恢復自然。

Increasing crop diversity will be crucial

增加作物多樣化

to building resilient food systems.

對建立有韌性的糧食系統非常重要。

And so will decentralizing agriculture

如此還能做分散式農業，

so that when farmers in one region are disrupted,

所以當某個地區的農夫 因故無法種植，

the others around, they can keep growing.

其他的地方還可以繼續種植。

The rise of vertical farms,

垂直農場的興起，

like this farm, built inside a former steel mill in Newark, New Jersey,

像這座農場建在 原本是煉鋼廠的內部，

位於紐澤西州紐華克市，

can play a key role in decentralizing agriculture.

可以在分散式農業中 扮演一個重要角色。

Aeroponic farms use a tiny fraction

氣霧耕用的水量

of the water that is used in in-ground farms.

僅為土地耕作的極小部分。

And they can grow food much faster, about 40 percent faster.

它們可以更快種出糧食， 大約快 40%。

And when located in and near cities,

如果是在都市內或近郊，

where the food is consumed,

因為糧食都在市區裡吃掉，

they eliminate a huge amount of trucking and food waste.

這樣還可以消除大量的 運輸及糧食浪費。

It struck me at first as creepy

起初我嚇到了，覺得很怪，

in kind of a "Silent Running" way

有一種電影《宇宙靜悄悄》的感覺，

that we'd be growing our future fruits and vegetables

我們要在室內種未來的水果蔬菜，

inside, without soil or sun.

沒有土壤或陽光。

And after weeks of spending time in these plant factories,

我在這些植物工廠裡 待了幾個星期後，

I began to see it as oddly, almost perfectly natural

開始覺得奇怪地近乎自然，

to deliver the plants only and exactly what they need,

只給植物恰恰需要的東西，

with zero herbicides and radical efficiency.

零殺草劑還極端有效率。

Here again, we see innovators borrowing from,

這裡我們再一次看到發明家

不但跟自然生態系統借智慧， 可能還提升了智慧。

and perhaps even elevating the wisdom of natural ecosystems.

Developments in plant-based and alternative meats

發展植物肉及替代肉

are also profoundly hopeful.

也深有希望。

And they follow a similar trend

他們遵循類似的趨勢

toward local, resilient, low-carbon protein production.

發展在地、適應性強、 低碳的蛋白質生產。

Consumers are excited about this,

消費者對此感到興奮，

and during the pandemic,

在疫情期間，

we've seen a 250 percent increase

我們看到替代肉的需求 成長了 250% 。

in demand for alternative meats.

A study by the Journal of Clinical Nutrition

《臨床營養學期刊》的一篇研究指出

found that the participants who were eating the plant-based proteins

吃植物性蛋白質的志願者，

saw a drop in their cholesterol levels,

他們的膽固醇降低了，

in their weight

體重也減輕了，

and eventually, a drop in their risk of heart disease.

最終降低了罹患心臟病的風險。

The potential environmental benefits of plant-based meats are astounding.

植物肉的潛在環境效益也很驚人。

And there's even potential in lab-grown or cell-based meats.

實驗室培養的肉 或所謂的培植肉潛力更大。

Uma Valeti fed me my first plate of lab-grown duck breast,

孟菲斯肉品的瓦雷蒂餵了我有生以來 第一盤實驗室長出來的鴨胸肉，

harvested fresh from a bioreactor.

從生物反應器裡現採的。

It had been grown from a small sampling of cells

它從少量的細胞樣本中長出來，

taken from muscle tissue and fat and connective tissues,

而這些細胞是從肌肉組織、 脂肪和結締組織取出的，

which is exactly what we eat when we eat meat.

正是我們吃肉的時候吃的東西。

This lab-grown or cell-based duck meat

這個實驗室養出的細胞培植鴨肉

has very little threat of bacterial contamination,

幾乎沒有細菌污染的威脅，

it's about 85 percent lower CO2 emissions associated with it.

與之相關的二氧化碳排放 也少約 85％。

Eventually it can be grown

總有一天，它會像這些作物一樣

like those crops inside vertical farms in decentralized facilities

在分散式設施的垂直農場裡面生長，

that aren't vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions.

不怕供應鏈中斷。

Valeti started out as a cardiologist,

瓦拉提本來是心臟科醫師，

who understood that doctors have been developing

他知道醫師早就在

human and animal tissues in laboratories for decades.

實驗室裡培養人類及動物組織多年。

He was inspired as much by that

他從中得到許多啟發，

as he was by a 1931 quote from Winston Churchill that says,

還有邱吉爾於 1931 年 說過的一句話：

"We shall escape the absurdity of growing the whole chicken

「我們應該逃避

為了吃雞胸肉或雞翅 而養全雞這種荒繆，

in order to eat the breast or the wing,

by growing them separately in suitable mediums."

應該只要在合適的培養基中 分開培植就好。」

Like Heraud, Valeti is a quintessential third-way thinker.

瓦拉提就跟何勞德一樣， 都是典型的第三條路線思想家。

He's reimagined an old idea using new technology,

他用新科技重新構想舊思維，

to usher in a solution whose time has come.

提出解決方案，而時機已經成熟。

I've met with dozens of farmers and entrepreneurs and engineers

我跟數十位農夫 及企業家及工程師見面，

who emulate third-way thinking, all over the world.

他們在全世界效法第三條路線思考。

They're using modern breeding tools like CRISPR

他們使用現代的育種工具 如基因編輯 CRISPR，

to develop nutritious heirloom crops that can withstand drought and heat.

讓營養價值高的原種作物耐旱耐熱。

They're using AI to make aquaculture sustainable.

他們也使用人工智慧 使水產養殖更永續。

They're finding ways to eliminate food waste.

他們在找方法消弭糧食浪費。

They are scaling up

他們正在擴大

conservation agriculture and managed grazing.

保護性農業和管理放牧的規模。

And they're reviving ancient plants,

他們還復興古老的植物，

and they're recycling sewage and gray water

再生污水及灰水

to develop a drought-proof water supply.

發展不怕旱災的水源。

The upshot is this:

結果是這樣的：

Human innovation that marries old and new approaches to food production

人類創新結合糧食生產的新舊方法，

can, and I believe, will usher in this third way

我相信可以，也會開創一條新路線，

and redefine sustainable food on a grand scale.

重新定義大規模的永續糧食。