How farming could employ Africa's young workforce -- and help build peace | Kola Masha

翻译人员: kelly tan 校对人员: Howel Wang

Since 1997, researchers at the University of Sussex

从1997年开始， 萨塞克斯大学（位于英国东萨塞克斯郡）

have monitored global trends in armed conflict.

的研究人员就一直监测着 全球武装冲突的发展态势。

Their research clearly shows

他们的研究清楚地表明，

that in Africa, over the last 10 years,

非洲在过去十年里，

armed conflict has gone up by sevenfold.

武装冲突的发生率上升了七倍。

Let's think about that:

想想看吧！

sevenfold in a single decade.

仅仅十年就翻了七倍。

Why is this?

为什么会这样？

We believe, as oxygen is to fire,

我们认为，正如氧气能加剧火的燃烧，

so are unemployed youth to insecurity.

失业的青年会让社会不稳定性加剧。

We have a lot of youth on this continent.

在非洲，我们有很多青年。

Youth like Sandra,

很多青年和 Sandra 一样。

who, on a Saturday morning in March 2014,

2014年3月的 一个星期六的早上，

woke up excited at the prospects of getting a coveted job

Sandra 兴奋地醒来， 因为她也许即将得到

一份梦寐以求的 在尼日利亚移民局的工作。

at the Nigerian Immigration Services.

She kissed her daughter goodbye,

她亲吻了女儿和她告别，

left her home,

离开了家，

never to return.

再也没有回来过。

Sandra and 15 other young Nigerians died that day, applying for a job,

Sandra 和其他15个年轻的 尼日利亚公民在求职的那天罹难，

in the ensuing stampede,

死于求职现场的人群踩踏事故，

as tens of thousands of people applied for a few thousand open positions.

因为仅仅几千个空缺职位 就有数以万计的人的人申请。

In the last 20 years, 20 million youth have entered the Nigerian workforce alone.

在过去的二十年里，仅尼日利亚 就有2000万年轻人进入劳动力市场。

Today, half our population is under the age of 18.

今天，我们一半的人口 都在十八岁以下。

That's almost 80 million people

这意味着在接下来的二十年里，

that will be entering the workforce in the next 20 years.

会有将近八千万人需要工作。

My friends,

朋友们，

if a wave of 20 million people entering the workforce

如果仅仅两千万人进入劳动市场，

triggered Niger Delta crisis,

将会引发尼日尔三角洲危机，

Fulani herdsmen crisis

富拉尼牧民危机，

and Boko Haram,

催生博科圣地组织，

I ask you:

那么我想请问你们：

What will four times that number do?

如果人数增加四倍， 会发生什么？

To do my part to solve this challenge,

为了尽我所能解决这个问题，

in 2012, I moved to a small village in northern Nigeria,

2012年，我搬到了 尼日利亚北部的一个小镇，

in the center of the area most recently hit

那里处于最近发生的危险事件，

炸弹袭击和贫困的中心地区。

by the spread of insecurity, brutal bombings and searing poverty,

with an idea:

我的想法是：

Could we create an economic buffer to halt the spread of this insecurity,

我们能不能把发展农业当作 创造大量工作岗位的引擎，

by unlocking the power of agriculture as a job-creation engine?

形成一个经济方面的缓冲方案， 来防止这类不安全事件的延续？

We knew this had been done before in countries like Thailand,

我们知道，一些国家 曾经这么做过，比如泰国，

where, in 1980, they suffered from the same economic challenges as us.

在1980年的时候， 泰国和我们经历了同样的经济危机。

Today, however, Thailand produces two million cars a year --

然而如今，泰国每年 生产两百万辆汽车——

甚至比英国还多——

more than the United Kingdom --

with over 30 percent of its workforce

有超过百分之三十的劳动力成为了

as highly commercial, profitable small farmers,

高度商业化的， 收入颇丰的小农场主，

with an unemployment rate of less than one percent.

而失业率还不到百分之一。

How did they do this?

他们是怎么做到的？

In the 80s, Thailand dramatically improved the productivity of its small farmers,

在八十年代，泰国极大地提高了 小农场主的生产力，

ensuring that it was able to start to dominate

保证国家有实力开始主导

export markets for produce.

产品的出口市场。

Building on this strength, they attracted investment

基于这个优势， 他们吸引了大量的投资，

and started to process,

进军产品加工行业，

being able to export higher-value products like starch from cassava.

有能力出口像木薯粉这样 更高价值的产品。

Finally, coupled with investment in education,

最后，配合着在教育上的投资，

they started to expand to even higher-value manufacturing.

他们开始扩大 更高产值的制造业的规模。

To make our idea a reality and follow a path similar to Thailand,

为了实现我们的想法， 走上和泰国相似的发展道路，

we knew that we would have to sell young farmers on farming.

我们必须说服年轻人去耕种。

A young man in northern Nigeria,

一个来自尼日利亚北部的年轻人——

for the purpose of today's discussion, we'll call "Saminu,"

为了契合今天的讨论主题， 我们不妨叫他 “Saminu”。

made it very clear to me that this would not be easy.

他让我明白 这不是一件容易的事情。

Saminu grew up in a beautiful village in northern Nigeria.

Saminu 在尼日利亚北部的 一个美丽的村庄里长大。

And he tells wondrous stories of playing for hours with his friends,

他会讲关于沿着家附近田野

running up and down the beautiful rock formations

美丽岩层和小伙伴们跑上跑下，

that dot the countryside around his home.

一玩就是好几个小时的故事。

Despite this beauty, Saminu knew

尽管家乡如此美丽， Saminu 依然会认为，

that the first chance he got, he would leave.

只要一有机会， 就会离开家乡。

He did not want to be a farmer.

因为他不想成为一个农民。

Growing up, he saw his parents work so hard as farmers,

在他成长的过程中， 他看见父母非常辛苦地务农，

but barely get by.

却只能勉强维持生计。

As he says, they had "babu" -- nothing.

就像他说的那样，他们有 “babu” ——也就是什么也没有。

Young farmers like Saminu

像 Saminu 这样的年轻农民，

do not have access to the cash

是没有足够的现金

to buy the farming products to pair with their hard work

去买和他们辛苦工作 相配的农产品的，

to be successful.

更别提获得成功了。

When their meager harvest came in,

当他们获得极微薄的收成时，

desperate for cash, they would sell most of it at fire-sale prices,

由于迫切需要现金， 大多数收获的庄稼都会贱价出售。

when, if they could just wait six months, they could get 50 percent more.

如果他们能等上六个月， 就能多赚百分之五十。

Hence, Saminu left to the city,

因此，Saminu 离开家乡 前往城市谋生，

where he soon realized that life was not easy.

在那里他很快意识到 生活并没有那么容易。

He borrowed a very old motorcycle,

他借了一辆老旧的，

with tires that were more patches than tires,

轮胎上全是补丁的摩托车，

to become a motorcycle taxi driver.

成为了摩托出租司机。

He lived in constant fear every day

他成日生活在恐惧之中，

that his precious, tattered motorcycle would be ripped away from him,

担心他那辆宝贵的破烂摩托车 随时可能被抢走，

as it had before.

就像曾经发生过的那样。

But he got it back, thankfully.

但谢天谢地， 那次他把车拿回来了。

He knew of others, however, who were not so lucky --

不过他知道别人就没那么幸运了——

other young men who, once they'd lost their motorcycles,

别的年轻人， 一旦丢了车，

became destitute.

就陷入了极度贫困。

Angry, these young men set out to wreak vengeance

这些年轻人一怒之下会去报复

on a society that they believed had turned its back on them.

这个已经唾弃他们的社会。

Saminu told me that they joined insurgent groups,

Saminu 告诉我， 他们加入了造反组织，

often acting as getaway drivers in bombings and kidnappings.

经常在炸弹袭击和绑架行动中 充当帮助犯罪分子逃跑的同谋。

To end this cycle of insecurity,

为了终结这种不安全事件的循环，

we must make farming a viable choice.

我们必须将农业 发展成一个可行的选择。

We must ensure that these young men, on their small farms,

我们必须确保这些年轻人 在他们自己的小农场上，

can earn enough money to make a life for themselves;

可以挣到足够的钱 来养活他们自己；

to make a future.

给自己一个未来。

The question now is how.

现在的问题是怎么做。

Recognizing that Africa has grassroot-level leadership,

考虑到非洲目前基层领导状况，

we simply developed a model

我们只需要建立一种模式，

to bring the professional management and investment to scale

把专业的管理理念和投资交给

to these grassroot leaders.

这些基层领导者。

We called it "Babban Gona" -- "great farm" in Hausa.

我门把它叫做 “Babban Gona” —— 在豪萨语中是“大农场”的意思。

Upon reaching the village in 2012,

2012年，我一到达这个村庄，

I traveled from community to community,

就开始一个社区一个社区地游说，

trying to convince people of our idea,

想要让更多的人认同我们的想法，

trying to recruit farmer members.

想要招聘更多农民。

We failed woefully that first year,

我们第一年经营惨淡，

barely recruiting 100 brave souls.

仅仅雇到 100 个勇于尝试的人。

But we persevered.

但我们坚持做下去了。

We kept doing what we promised,

我们一直完成着我们许下的承诺，

slowly we gained their trust.

也逐渐得到了他们的信任。

More farmers joined us.

更多的农民加入了我们。

Fast-forward now five years.

一转眼五年过去了。

With a passionate and committed team

在热情忠诚的团队，

and the tremendous support of our partners,

以及合作伙伴的巨大支持下，

we grew dramatically,

我们成长得很快。

today, serving 20,000 small farmers,

现在，我们培养了 2万个小农场主，

enabling them to double their yields and triple their net income

帮助他们获得了 同龄人两倍的收成

relative to their peers.

和三倍的纯收入。

We are very proud of the fact --

我们为此感到非常自豪——

(Applause)

（掌声）

Fast-forward three years,

在这快速发展的三年里，

Saminu has earned enough money

Saminu 已经挣了足够多的钱，

to buy three goats for his mother to start a goat-rearing business,

他买了三头山羊给他的妈妈， 让她能通过饲养山羊赚钱；

owns his own retail store

他拥有了自己的零售店；

and bought not one, but two motorcycles,

他还买了两辆摩托车， 而不是只有一辆，

with vanity license plates: "Babban Gona."

摩托车的牌照上写着 “Babban Gona”。

(Applause)

（掌声）

My friends,

我的朋友们，

in the next 20 years,

在接下来的二十年里，

over 400 million Saminus are entering the African workforce,

会有超过4亿像 Saminus 这样的年轻人进入非洲劳动力市场，

with potentially half of them having opportunities in agriculture.

他们之中有一半的人 都有机会在农业行业发展。

To unlock these opportunities, through models similar to ours,

为了运用和我们相似的模式， 来获得赚钱的机会，

they would require 150 billion dollars a year in financing.

他们需要每年1500亿美元 的财政支持。

这是一笔大数目。

This is a big number.

But if we can tap into commercial debt, it is a small number --

但如果我们借助商业债务的方式， 这就是个小数目——

only 0.1 percent of all the debt in the world today,

只有现在世界债务总和的 0.1%，

10 cents out of every 100 dollars.

相当于每100美元里的10美分。

This is why we designed our model

这就是我们要把模型设计得

to be very different from conventional agricultural development programs.

和传统的农业发展项目 不一样的原因。

In a few short years, we have shown that our model works,

在短短的几年里， 我们已经证明我们的模型是可行的，

is high-impact and can turn a profit,

既有很大的影响力， 且还能盈利，

attracting commercial investors

还可以吸引更多

that do not typically invest in small farmers in Africa.

原本并不打算投资 非洲小农场的投资者。

Imagine a world where millions of young men across Africa,

想象一下那样的世界， 数以百万计的非洲年轻人，

那些勤劳工作的年轻人，

hardworking young men,

have other options.

拥有的选择。

I know these driven, ambitious young men

我知道这些奋发努力的， 雄心勃勃的年轻人，

will make the right choice.

会做出正确的选择。

We can realize this dream

我们可以帮助实现他们的梦想，

if they have a choice.

如果他们有选择的机会。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）