How farming could employ Africa's young workforce -- and help build peace | Kola Masha

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Since 1997, researchers at the University of Sussex

從 1997 年起， 薩塞克斯大學的研究者

have monitored global trends in armed conflict.

就一直在監視 武裝衝突的全球趨勢。

Their research clearly shows

他們的研究清楚顯示出

that in Africa, over the last 10 years,

過去十年間，在非洲，

armed conflict has gone up by sevenfold.

武裝衝突增加了七倍。

Let's think about that:

咱們來想一下：

sevenfold in a single decade.

十年就翻了七倍。

Why is this?

為什麼會這樣？

We believe, as oxygen is to fire,

我們相信，就像氧氣會助長火，

so are unemployed youth to insecurity.

失業的年輕人也會助長不安全感。

We have a lot of youth on this continent.

在這片大陸上，有很多的年輕人。

Youth like Sandra,

像珊德拉這樣的年輕人，

who, on a Saturday morning in March 2014,

在 2014 年三月的 一個星期六早晨，

woke up excited at the prospects of getting a coveted job

她很興奮地醒來，期待著 得到她夢寐以求的工作，

at the Nigerian Immigration Services.

在奈及利亞移民服務局工作。

She kissed her daughter goodbye,

她和女兒道別時親了女兒一下，

left her home,

離開家，

never to return.

沒有再回來。

Sandra and 15 other young Nigerians died that day, applying for a job,

珊德拉和其他十五名奈及利亞 年輕人那天因去應徵工作而喪命，

in the ensuing stampede,

因為後來發生人群亂擁，

as tens of thousands of people applied for a few thousand open positions.

上萬人要應徵幾千個職缺。

In the last 20 years, 20 million youth have entered the Nigerian workforce alone.

在過去二十年，就有兩千萬 年輕人進入了奈及利亞的勞動力。

Today, half our population is under the age of 18.

現今，我們的一半人口不到十八歲。

That's almost 80 million people

那是近八千萬人，

that will be entering the workforce in the next 20 years.

在接下來的二十年， 他們會進入勞動力。

My friends,

朋友們，

if a wave of 20 million people entering the workforce

如果一波兩千萬人的 人潮進入勞動力

triggered Niger Delta crisis,

就觸發了尼日爾三角洲危機、

Fulani herdsmen crisis

富拉尼牧人危機，

and Boko Haram,

以及博科聖地，

I ask you:

那我想問各位：

What will four times that number do?

四倍的人數會造成什麼後果？

To do my part to solve this challenge,

為了要扮演好我的角色， 解決這項難題，

in 2012, I moved to a small village in northern Nigeria,

2012 年，我搬到 北奈及利亞的一個小村落，

in the center of the area most recently hit

它就位在近期受到不安全感、 殘酷炸彈攻擊，

by the spread of insecurity, brutal bombings and searing poverty,

以及嚴重貧困所侵襲之 區域的中心地點，

with an idea:

我的想法是：

Could we create an economic buffer to halt the spread of this insecurity,

我們能否釋放出農業的力量， 做為創造工作機會的引擎，

以創造出一種經濟緩衝， 讓不安全感的散播能夠暫停下來？

by unlocking the power of agriculture as a job-creation engine?

We knew this had been done before in countries like Thailand,

我們知道在像泰國等國家， 以前就有這麼做過，

where, in 1980, they suffered from the same economic challenges as us.

1980 年，泰國遇到的 經濟挑戰就和我們一樣。

Today, however, Thailand produces two million cars a year --

然而，現今，泰國一年 能生產出兩百萬台汽車，

more than the United Kingdom --

比英國還多；

with over 30 percent of its workforce

其勞動力有超過 30%

as highly commercial, profitable small farmers,

都是高度商業化、 有利可圖的小農夫，

with an unemployment rate of less than one percent.

失業率還不到 1%。

How did they do this?

他們怎麼辦到的？

In the 80s, Thailand dramatically improved the productivity of its small farmers,

在八○年代，泰國大大改善了 該國小農夫的生產力，

ensuring that it was able to start to dominate

確保這樣的生產力能夠開始主導

export markets for produce.

農產品出口市場。

Building on this strength, they attracted investment

靠著這股力量，他們吸引了投資，

and started to process,

開始加工，

being able to export higher-value products like starch from cassava.

得以出口更高價值的產品， 比如木薯澱粉。

Finally, coupled with investment in education,

最後，結合在教育的投資，

they started to expand to even higher-value manufacturing.

他們就開始擴展到更高價值的製造。

To make our idea a reality and follow a path similar to Thailand,

為了要實現我們的想法， 並採用和泰國類似的做法，

we knew that we would have to sell young farmers on farming.

我們知道我們得要讓年輕農夫 相信農業是有價值的。

A young man in northern Nigeria,

一位在北奈及利亞的年輕人，

for the purpose of today's discussion, we'll call "Saminu,"

為了方便在此討論， 我們給他一個暱稱「薩米努」，

made it very clear to me that this would not be easy.

他很清楚告訴我，這並不容易。

Saminu grew up in a beautiful village in northern Nigeria.

薩米努在北奈及利亞 一個美麗的村落長大，

And he tells wondrous stories of playing for hours with his friends,

他會說許多奇妙的故事，內容是 他和他的朋友玩耍數個小時，

running up and down the beautiful rock formations

在美麗的岩石結構上跑上跑下，

that dot the countryside around his home.

這些結構遍佈在他家周圍的鄉間。

Despite this beauty, Saminu knew

儘管這裡如此美麗，薩米努知道，

that the first chance he got, he would leave.

只要一有機會，他就會離開。

He did not want to be a farmer.

他不想要當農夫。

Growing up, he saw his parents work so hard as farmers,

成長過程中，他看見 他的農夫父母非常努力，

but barely get by.

生活卻只是勉強過得去。

As he says, they had "babu" -- nothing.

引用他的話，他們只有 「babu」——就是一無所有。

Young farmers like Saminu

像薩米努這樣的年輕農夫

do not have access to the cash

沒有辦法取得現金

to buy the farming products to pair with their hard work

來購買耕作產品， 配合他們的辛勤努力，

to be successful.

所以很難成功。

When their meager harvest came in,

當他們的收穫量很少的時候，

desperate for cash, they would sell most of it at fire-sale prices,

因為急需要現金，他們會把 大部分收成用大拍賣的價格售出，

when, if they could just wait six months, they could get 50 percent more.

其實如果他們能再等 六個月，就能多賺 50%。

Hence, Saminu left to the city,

因此，薩米努離開家鄉前往城市。

where he soon realized that life was not easy.

他很快就發現在城市生活並不容易。

He borrowed a very old motorcycle,

他借了一台非常舊的摩托車，

with tires that were more patches than tires,

輪胎比較像是補丁而不是輪胎，

to become a motorcycle taxi driver.

他開始當計程摩托車的司機。

He lived in constant fear every day

每天，他時時刻刻都很害怕

that his precious, tattered motorcycle would be ripped away from him,

他會失去他那珍貴、破爛的摩托車，

as it had before.

這以前就發生過。

But he got it back, thankfully.

但謝天謝地他把車找回來了。

He knew of others, however, who were not so lucky --

然而，他也認識其他 沒他那麼幸運的人，

other young men who, once they'd lost their motorcycles,

這些年輕人一旦 失去了他們的摩托車，

became destitute.

就變成一貧如洗。

Angry, these young men set out to wreak vengeance

盛怒之下，這些年輕人 就打算要施行報復，

on a society that they believed had turned its back on them.

報復對象是被他們認為 已經背棄他們的社會。

Saminu told me that they joined insurgent groups,

薩米努告訴我，他們加入反叛團體，

often acting as getaway drivers in bombings and kidnappings.

常在炸彈攻擊和綁票事件中 擔任載人逃離的開車司機。

To end this cycle of insecurity,

如果要終止這個不安全感的循環，

we must make farming a viable choice.

我們就得讓農業 成為一個可行的選擇。

We must ensure that these young men, on their small farms,

我們得要確保這些年輕人， 用他們自己的小農田，

can earn enough money to make a life for themselves;

能夠賺足夠的錢來養活自己；

to make a future.

建立一個未來。

The question now is how.

現在的問題是，怎麼做？

Recognizing that Africa has grassroot-level leadership,

因為知道非洲有草根等級的領導，

we simply developed a model

我們的做法很簡單， 就是開發一個模型

to bring the professional management and investment to scale

把專業管理和投資給擴大規模，

to these grassroot leaders.

帶給這些草根領導人。

We called it "Babban Gona" -- "great farm" in Hausa.

用豪薩語叫做「Babban Gona」， 意思是「偉大的農田」。

Upon reaching the village in 2012,

在 2012 年到了村落之後，

I traveled from community to community,

我四處拜訪各個社區，

trying to convince people of our idea,

試著用我們的想法來說服大家，

trying to recruit farmer members.

試著招募農夫成員。

We failed woefully that first year,

第一年，我們慘敗，

barely recruiting 100 brave souls.

很勉強招募到一百個勇敢的人。

But we persevered.

但我們堅持下去。

We kept doing what we promised,

我們持續努力實現我們的承諾，

slowly we gained their trust.

慢慢地，我們得到了他們的信任。

More farmers joined us.

更多農夫加入了我們。

Fast-forward now five years.

把時間快轉五年到現在。

With a passionate and committed team

我們有個具熱忱且投入的團隊，

and the tremendous support of our partners,

合作夥伴也給予我們很大的支持，

we grew dramatically,

讓我們能大大成長，

today, serving 20,000 small farmers,

現在，我們服務的小農夫 人數達兩萬人，

enabling them to double their yields and triple their net income

相對於他們的同行，

他們的產量兩倍，淨收入三倍。

relative to their peers.

We are very proud of the fact --

我們非常驕傲——

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Fast-forward three years,

時間快轉三年，

Saminu has earned enough money

薩米努賺足了錢，

to buy three goats for his mother to start a goat-rearing business,

為他的母親買了三隻山羊， 開始了飼養山羊的事業，

owns his own retail store

他擁有自己的零售商店，

and bought not one, but two motorcycles,

買了摩托車， 且不只一台，是兩台，

with vanity license plates: "Babban Gona."

還有很虛榮的車牌， 寫著「Babban Gona」。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

My friends,

朋友們，

in the next 20 years,

在接下來的二十年，

over 400 million Saminus are entering the African workforce,

會有超過四億個像薩米努 這樣的人進入非洲的勞動力，

with potentially half of them having opportunities in agriculture.

當中一半的人有機會在農業上發展。

To unlock these opportunities, through models similar to ours,

若要透過類似我們的模型 來釋出這些機會，

they would require 150 billion dollars a year in financing.

他們每年會需要一千五百億的資金。

This is a big number.

這個數字很大。

But if we can tap into commercial debt, it is a small number --

但如果我們能利用商業借款， 這就是個小數字——

only 0.1 percent of all the debt in the world today,

那僅是現今全世界 所有借款的 0.1%，

10 cents out of every 100 dollars.

也就是一百元中的十分錢而已。

This is why we designed our model

那就是為什麼我們的模型設計

to be very different from conventional agricultural development programs.

會和常見的農業發展方案非常不同。

In a few short years, we have shown that our model works,

在短短幾年間，我們就展示出 我們的模型是有用的，

is high-impact and can turn a profit,

它具有很高的影響力， 且能賺到利潤，

attracting commercial investors

吸引那些通常不會

that do not typically invest in small farmers in Africa.

投資在非洲小農身上的商業投資者，

Imagine a world where millions of young men across Africa,

想像一個世界，在這個世界中， 非洲各地的數百萬年輕人，

hardworking young men,

辛勤努力的年輕人，

have other options.

有其他的選擇。

I know these driven, ambitious young men

我知道這些有動機、 有野心的年輕人

will make the right choice.

會做出正確的選擇。

We can realize this dream

我們可以實現這個夢，

if they have a choice.

如果他們有選擇的話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）