What we learned from 5 million books

236,062 views ・ 2011-09-20

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Katarina Smetko Recezent: Zlatko Smetisko
00:15
Erez Lieberman Aiden: Everyone knows
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Erez Lieberman Aiden: Svi znaju
00:17
that a picture is worth a thousand words.
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da slika vrijedi tisuću riječi.
00:22
But we at Harvard
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No, mi smo se na Harvardu
00:24
were wondering if this was really true.
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zapitali je li to stvarno istina.
00:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:29
So we assembled a team of experts,
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Tako smo okupili tim stručnjaka,
00:33
spanning Harvard, MIT,
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koji obuhvaća ljude na Harvardu i MIT-u,
00:35
The American Heritage Dictionary, The Encyclopedia Britannica
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one koji rade na rječniku American Heritage i Encyclopediji Britannici,
00:38
and even our proud sponsors,
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čak i naše ponosne sponzore,
00:40
the Google.
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Google.
00:43
And we cogitated about this
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Razmišljali smo o tome
00:45
for about four years.
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oko četiri godine
00:47
And we came to a startling conclusion.
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i došli smo do začuđujućeg zaključka.
00:52
Ladies and gentlemen, a picture is not worth a thousand words.
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Dame i gospodo, slika ne vrijedi tisuću riječi.
00:55
In fact, we found some pictures
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Čak smo pronašli neke slike
00:57
that are worth 500 billion words.
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koje vrijede 500 milijardi riječi.
01:02
Jean-Baptiste Michel: So how did we get to this conclusion?
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Jean-Baptiste Michel: Kako smo došlo do tog zaključka?
01:04
So Erez and I were thinking about ways
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Erez i ja razmišljali smo o načinima
01:06
to get a big picture of human culture
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na koje bismo mogli steći općenitu sliku ljudske kulture
01:08
and human history: change over time.
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i ljudske povijesti: promjene kroz vrijeme.
01:11
So many books actually have been written over the years.
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Kroz vrijeme je zapravo napisano mnogo knjiga.
01:13
So we were thinking, well the best way to learn from them
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Stoga smo mislili kako je najbolji način da nešto naučimo iz njih
01:15
is to read all of these millions of books.
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taj da pročitamo sve te milijune knjiga.
01:17
Now of course, if there's a scale for how awesome that is,
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Naravno, ako postoji ljestvica za mjerenje koliko je to fenomenalno,
01:20
that has to rank extremely, extremely high.
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tako nešto mora biti rangirano vrlo, vrlo visoko.
01:23
Now the problem is there's an X-axis for that,
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Problem je što za to postoji os x
01:25
which is the practical axis.
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ili praktična os.
01:27
This is very, very low.
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Na njoj se to nalazi vrlo, vrlo nisko.
01:29
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
01:32
Now people tend to use an alternative approach,
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Ljudi su skloni primjenjivanju alternativnog pristupa,
01:35
which is to take a few sources and read them very carefully.
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a to je da izaberu nekoliko izvora i njih pročitaju vrlo pažljivo.
01:37
This is extremely practical, but not so awesome.
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To je vrlo praktično, ali nije baš fenomenalno.
01:39
What you really want to do
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Ono što zapravo želite
01:42
is to get to the awesome yet practical part of this space.
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jest doći do dijela koji je i fenomenalan i praktičan.
01:45
So it turns out there was a company across the river called Google
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Ispada da s druge strane rijeke postoji tvrtka koja se zove Google,
01:48
who had started a digitization project a few years back
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koja je prije nekoliko godina počela s projektom digitalizacije
01:50
that might just enable this approach.
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koji bi mogao omogućiti upravo ovaj pristup.
01:52
They have digitized millions of books.
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Digitalizirali su milijune knjiga.
01:54
So what that means is, one could use computational methods
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A to znači da se možemo služiti računalnim metodama
01:57
to read all of the books in a click of a button.
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kako bismo sve knjige pročitali pritiskom na tipku.
01:59
That's very practical and extremely awesome.
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To je vrlo praktično i poprilično fenomenalno.
02:03
ELA: Let me tell you a little bit about where books come from.
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ELA: Ispričat ću vam malo o tome odakle dolaze knjige.
02:05
Since time immemorial, there have been authors.
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Od pamtivijeka postoje autori.
02:08
These authors have been striving to write books.
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Oni teže tome da pišu knjige.
02:11
And this became considerably easier
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To je postalo znatno lakše
02:13
with the development of the printing press some centuries ago.
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s razvojem tehnike tiskanja prije nekoliko stoljeća.
02:15
Since then, the authors have won
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Od tada su autori pobijedili
02:18
on 129 million distinct occasions,
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129 milijuna puta
02:20
publishing books.
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i objavili su knjige.
02:22
Now if those books are not lost to history,
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Ako se te knjige s vremenom nisu izgubile,
02:24
then they are somewhere in a library,
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znači da su negdje u nekoj knjižnici.
02:26
and many of those books have been getting retrieved from the libraries
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Mnoge od tih knjiga izvučene su iz knjižnica
02:29
and digitized by Google,
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i Google ih je digitalizirao.
02:31
which has scanned 15 million books to date.
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Do danas je skenirano 15 milijuna knjiga.
02:33
Now when Google digitizes a book, they put it into a really nice format.
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Kad Google digitalizira knjigu, stavlja ju u zaista zgodan format.
02:36
Now we've got the data, plus we have metadata.
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Imamo podatke, a imamo i metapodatke.
02:38
We have information about things like where was it published,
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Imamo informacije o stvarima kao što su mjesto izdavanja,
02:41
who was the author, when was it published.
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ime autora, datum izdavanja.
02:43
And what we do is go through all of those records
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I mi tada prolazimo kroz sve te zapise
02:46
and exclude everything that's not the highest quality data.
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i izostavljamo sve što nisu podaci najviše kvalitete.
02:50
What we're left with
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Ono što nam ostaje
02:52
is a collection of five million books,
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zbirka je od pet milijuna knjiga,
02:55
500 billion words,
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500 milijardi riječi,
02:58
a string of characters a thousand times longer
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niz likova koji je tisuću puta dulji
03:00
than the human genome --
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od ljudskog genoma --
03:03
a text which, when written out,
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tekst koji bi, kad bi se ispisao,
03:05
would stretch from here to the Moon and back
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protezao 10 puta odavde do Mjeseca
03:07
10 times over --
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i natrag --
03:09
a veritable shard of our cultural genome.
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zaista tek djelić našeg kulturnog genoma.
03:13
Of course what we did
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Naravno, ono što smo učinili,
03:15
when faced with such outrageous hyperbole ...
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kad smo se suočili s tako skandaloznom hiperbolom...
03:18
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:20
was what any self-respecting researchers
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bilo je isto što bi učinili bilo koji istraživači
03:23
would have done.
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koji drže do sebe.
03:26
We took a page out of XKCD,
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Uzeli smo jednu stranicu s XKCD-a
03:28
and we said, "Stand back.
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i rekli: "Odmaknite se!
03:30
We're going to try science."
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Pokušat ćemo nešto znanstveno!"
03:32
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:34
JM: Now of course, we were thinking,
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JM: Naravno, mislili smo,
03:36
well let's just first put the data out there
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hajdemo prvo omogućiti pristup podacima
03:38
for people to do science to it.
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kako bi ih ljudi mogli znanstveno promotriti.
03:40
Now we're thinking, what data can we release?
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Razmišljali smo kojim podacima možemo omogućiti pristup?
03:42
Well of course, you want to take the books
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Naravno, želite uzeti te knjige
03:44
and release the full text of these five million books.
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i omogućiti pristup kompletnom tekstu tih pet milijuna knjiga.
03:46
Now Google, and Jon Orwant in particular,
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Google, a pogotovo Jon Orwant,
03:48
told us a little equation that we should learn.
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pokazali su nam malu jednadžbu koju smo morali naučiti.
03:50
So you have five million, that is, five million authors
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Imate pet milijuna knjiga, odnosno pet miljuna autora
03:53
and five million plaintiffs is a massive lawsuit.
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i pet milijuna tužitelja u masovnoj tužbi.
03:56
So, although that would be really, really awesome,
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Dakle, iako bi to bilo stvarno, stvarno fenomenalno,
03:58
again, that's extremely, extremely impractical.
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to je opet vrlo, vrlo nepraktično.
04:01
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:03
Now again, we kind of caved in,
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Opet smo popustilli
04:05
and we did the very practical approach, which was a bit less awesome.
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i primijenili vrlo praktičan pristup, koji je bio nešto manje fenomenalan.
04:08
We said, well instead of releasing the full text,
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Rekli smo, umjesto da omogućimo pristup kompletnom tekstu,
04:10
we're going to release statistics about the books.
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omogućit ćemo pristup statistikama o knjigama.
04:12
So take for instance "A gleam of happiness."
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Uzmite primjerice "tračak sreće" (a gleam of happiness).
04:14
It's four words; we call that a four-gram.
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To su četiri riječi i to zovemo četverogram.
04:16
We're going to tell you how many times a particular four-gram
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Reći ćemo vam koliko se puta određeni četverogram
04:18
appeared in books in 1801, 1802, 1803,
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pojavio u knjigama 1801., 1802., 1803. godine,
04:20
all the way up to 2008.
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i tako sve do 2008.
04:22
That gives us a time series
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Tako dobivamo vremenski niz
04:24
of how frequently this particular sentence was used over time.
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učestalosti korištenja određene rečenice kroz vrijeme,
04:26
We do that for all the words and phrases that appear in those books,
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To smo napravili za sve riječi i izraze koji se pojavljuju u tim knjigama,
04:29
and that gives us a big table of two billion lines
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što nam daje veliku tablicu od dvije milijarde redaka
04:32
that tell us about the way culture has been changing.
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koji nam prikazuju način na koji se kultura mijenja.
04:34
ELA: So those two billion lines,
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ELA: Te dvije milijarde redaka
04:36
we call them two billion n-grams.
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zovemo dvije milijarde n-grama.
04:38
What do they tell us?
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Što nam oni govore?
04:40
Well the individual n-grams measure cultural trends.
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Pojedinačni n-grami mjere kulturne trendove.
04:42
Let me give you an example.
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Dat ću vam primjer.
04:44
Let's suppose that I am thriving,
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Pretpostavimo da ja težim nečemu (thrive),
04:46
then tomorrow I want to tell you about how well I did.
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a sutra vam želim ispričati koliko sam bio uspješan.
04:48
And so I might say, "Yesterday, I throve."
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Mogao bih koristiti oblik za prošlo vrijeme "throve",
04:51
Alternatively, I could say, "Yesterday, I thrived."
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a mogao koristiti i oblike "thrived".
04:54
Well which one should I use?
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Koji bih trebao koristiti?
04:57
How to know?
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Kako to znati?
04:59
As of about six months ago,
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Prije otprilike šest mjeseci,
05:01
the state of the art in this field
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najsuvremeniji podaci u tom polju
05:03
is that you would, for instance,
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kažu da biste, primjerice,
05:05
go up to the following psychologist with fabulous hair,
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otišli do ovog psihologa fantastične kose
05:07
and you'd say,
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i rekli biste:
05:09
"Steve, you're an expert on the irregular verbs.
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"Steve, ti si stručnjak za nepravilne glagole.
05:12
What should I do?"
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Što da radim?"
05:14
And he'd tell you, "Well most people say thrived,
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A on bi vam rekao: "Pa, većina ljudi koristi "thrived",
05:16
but some people say throve."
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ali neki ljudi kažu "throve".
05:19
And you also knew, more or less,
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A znali biste i, više-manje,
05:21
that if you were to go back in time 200 years
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da kad biste se vratili 200 godina u prošlost
05:24
and ask the following statesman with equally fabulous hair,
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i pitali ovog državnika jednako fantastične kose,
05:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:30
"Tom, what should I say?"
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"Tome, kako bih trebao govoriti?"
05:32
He'd say, "Well, in my day, most people throve,
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On bi vam rekao: "Pa, u moje vrijeme većina je ljudi koristila "throve",
05:34
but some thrived."
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ali neki su koristili "thrived".
05:37
So now what I'm just going to show you is raw data.
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Sad ću vam pokazati samo sirove podatke.
05:39
Two rows from this table of two billion entries.
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Dva reda iz ove tablice od dvije milijarde unosa.
05:43
What you're seeing is year by year frequency
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Sada gledate učestalost godinu za godinom
05:45
of "thrived" and "throve" over time.
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korištenja "thrived" i "throve" kroz vrijeme.
05:49
Now this is just two
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Dakle, to su samo dva reda
05:51
out of two billion rows.
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od dvije milijarde redova.
05:54
So the entire data set
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Ukupan skup podataka
05:56
is a billion times more awesome than this slide.
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milijardu je puta fenomenalniji od ovog slajda.
05:59
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:01
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
06:05
JM: Now there are many other pictures that are worth 500 billion words.
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JM: Postoji mnogo drugih slika koje vrijede 500 milijardi riječi.
06:07
For instance, this one.
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Na primjer, ova ovdje.
06:09
If you just take influenza,
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Ako uzmete samo gripu,
06:11
you will see peaks at the time where you knew
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vidjet ćete vrhove u vrijeme za koje znate
06:13
big flu epidemics were killing people around the globe.
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da su velike epidemije tada ubijale ljude u cijelom svijetu.
06:16
ELA: If you were not yet convinced,
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ELA: Ako vam treba još dokaza,
06:19
sea levels are rising,
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diže se razina mora,
06:21
so is atmospheric CO2 and global temperature.
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kao i CO2 i temperatura u svijetu.
06:24
JM: You might also want to have a look at this particular n-gram,
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JM: Možda ne bi bilo loše da pogledate i ovaj konkretni n-gram,
06:27
and that's to tell Nietzsche that God is not dead,
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koji govori Nietzscheu da Bog nije mrtav,
06:30
although you might agree that he might need a better publicist.
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iako se možda slažete da bi mu trebao bolji izdavač.
06:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:35
ELA: You can get at some pretty abstract concepts with this sort of thing.
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ELA: Na ovaj način možete dobiti prilično apstraktne koncepte.
06:38
For instance, let me tell you the history
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Na primjer, ispričat ću vam priču
06:40
of the year 1950.
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o 1950. godini.
06:42
Pretty much for the vast majority of history,
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Veliki dio povijesti,
06:44
no one gave a damn about 1950.
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nikoga nije bilo briga za 1950. godinu.
06:46
In 1700, in 1800, in 1900,
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1700. godine, 1800., 1900.,
06:48
no one cared.
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nikoga nije bilo briga.
06:52
Through the 30s and 40s,
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30-ih i 40-ih godina,
06:54
no one cared.
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nikoga nije bilo briga.
06:56
Suddenly, in the mid-40s,
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Odjednom, sredinom 40-ih,
06:58
there started to be a buzz.
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počelo se brujati o tome.
07:00
People realized that 1950 was going to happen,
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Ljudi su shvatili da će doći 1950. godina
07:02
and it could be big.
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i da bi mogla biti važna.
07:04
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:07
But nothing got people interested in 1950
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Ali ništa nije ljude zainteresiralo za 1950. godinu
07:10
like the year 1950.
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kao 1950. godina.
07:13
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:16
People were walking around obsessed.
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Ljudi su hodali uokolo opsjednuti.
07:18
They couldn't stop talking
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Nisu mogli prestati govoriti
07:20
about all the things they did in 1950,
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o svim stvarima koje su učinili 1950. godine,
07:23
all the things they were planning to do in 1950,
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o svim stvarima koje planiraju učiniti 1950. godine,
07:26
all the dreams of what they wanted to accomplish in 1950.
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o svim snovima koje žele ostvariti 1950. godine.
07:31
In fact, 1950 was so fascinating
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Zapravo, 1950. godina bila je toliko fascinantna
07:33
that for years thereafter,
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da su i godinama kasnije
07:35
people just kept talking about all the amazing things that happened,
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ljudi i dalje govorili o fantastičnim stvarima koje su se dogodile,
07:38
in '51, '52, '53.
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'51., '52., '53.
07:40
Finally in 1954,
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Na kraju, 1954. godine,
07:42
someone woke up and realized
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netko se otrijeznio i shvatio
07:44
that 1950 had gotten somewhat passé.
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da je 1950. godina postala passé.
07:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:50
And just like that, the bubble burst.
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I tako se iznenada mjehurić rasprsnuo.
07:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:54
And the story of 1950
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Priča o 1950. godini
07:56
is the story of every year that we have on record,
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priča je o svakoj godini koju smo zabilježili,
07:58
with a little twist, because now we've got these nice charts.
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s malom razlikom, jer sad imamo ove krasne grafove.
08:01
And because we have these nice charts, we can measure things.
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A budući da imamo te krasne grafove, možemo mjeriti razne stvari.
08:04
We can say, "Well how fast does the bubble burst?"
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Možemo pitati: "Koliko će se brzo mjehurić rasprsnuti?"
08:06
And it turns out that we can measure that very precisely.
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Ispada da to možemo vrlo precizno izmjeriti.
08:09
Equations were derived, graphs were produced,
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Jednadžbe su se derivirale, grafovi su se crtali,
08:12
and the net result
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a ukupni rezultat
08:14
is that we find that the bubble bursts faster and faster
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jest taj da smo otkrili da se mjehurić rasprsne sve brže
08:17
with each passing year.
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sa svakom godinom koja prođe.
08:19
We are losing interest in the past more rapidly.
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Sve brže gubimo zanimanje za prošlost.
08:24
JM: Now a little piece of career advice.
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JM: A sad mali savjet o odabiru karijere.
08:26
So for those of you who seek to be famous,
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Oni među vama koji žele biti slavni
08:28
we can learn from the 25 most famous political figures,
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mogu ponešto naučiti od 25 najpoznatijih političkih ličnosti,
08:30
authors, actors and so on.
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pisaca, glumaca i drugih.
08:32
So if you want to become famous early on, you should be an actor,
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Dakle, ako želite rano postati slavni, trebate postati glumac
08:35
because then fame starts rising by the end of your 20s --
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jer tada postajete slavni do kraja svojih 20-ih godina --
08:37
you're still young, it's really great.
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još uvijek ste mladi i to je odlično.
08:39
Now if you can wait a little bit, you should be an author,
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Ako možete malo čekati, trebali biste biti pisac
08:41
because then you rise to very great heights,
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jer tada se možete vrlo visoko uzdignuti,
08:43
like Mark Twain, for instance: extremely famous.
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poput primjerice Marka Twaina, on je bio zaista slavan.
08:45
But if you want to reach the very top,
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Ali ako želite dosegnuti sam vrh,
08:47
you should delay gratification
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trebali biste odgoditi zadovoljstvo
08:49
and, of course, become a politician.
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i, naravno, postati političar.
08:51
So here you will become famous by the end of your 50s,
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U tom ćete slučaju postati poznati do kraja svojih 50-ih godina,
08:53
and become very, very famous afterward.
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i ostati vrlo, vrlo poznati nakon toga.
08:55
So scientists also tend to get famous when they're much older.
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Znanstvenici uglavnom, isto tako, postaju poznati kad ostare.
08:58
Like for instance, biologists and physics
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Biolozi i fizičari, primjerice,
09:00
tend to be almost as famous as actors.
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znaju biti gotovo jednako slavni kao i glumci.
09:02
One mistake you should not do is become a mathematician.
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Trebate izbjeći samo jednu pogrešku - da postanete matematičar.
09:05
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:07
If you do that,
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Ako to učinite,
09:09
you might think, "Oh great. I'm going to do my best work when I'm in my 20s."
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možda ćete pomisliti: "Odlično, u 20-ima ću napraviti napraviti svoje najbolje radove."
09:12
But guess what, nobody will really care.
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No, znate što, nikoga neće biti briga.
09:14
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:17
ELA: There are more sobering notes
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ELA: Postoje i neke ozbiljnije činjenice
09:19
among the n-grams.
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među n-gramima.
09:21
For instance, here's the trajectory of Marc Chagall,
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Primjerice, evo putanje Marca Chagalla,
09:23
an artist born in 1887.
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umjetnika rođenog 1887. godine.
09:25
And this looks like the normal trajectory of a famous person.
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Ovo izgleda kao normalna putanja poznate osobe.
09:28
He gets more and more and more famous,
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Postaje sve poznatiji i poznatiji,
09:32
except if you look in German.
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osim ako gledate za njemački jezik.
09:34
If you look in German, you see something completely bizarre,
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Ako gledate za njemački, vidjet ćete nešto vrlo bizarno,
09:36
something you pretty much never see,
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nešto što gotovo nikad ne vidite,
09:38
which is he becomes extremely famous
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a to je da postaje iznimno poznat,
09:40
and then all of a sudden plummets,
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a nakon toga mu popularnost iznenada padne,
09:42
going through a nadir between 1933 and 1945,
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pri čemu su najniže točke bile između 1933. i 1945. godine,
09:45
before rebounding afterward.
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nakon čega mu se opet vratila popularnost.
09:48
And of course, what we're seeing
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Naravno, on što zapravo vidimo
09:50
is the fact Marc Chagall was a Jewish artist
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jest činjenica da je Marc Chagall bio židovski umjetnik
09:53
in Nazi Germany.
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u nacističkoj Njemačkoj.
09:55
Now these signals
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Ovi su signali
09:57
are actually so strong
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zapravo toliko jaki
09:59
that we don't need to know that someone was censored.
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da ne trebamo ni znati da su nekoga cenzurirali.
10:02
We can actually figure it out
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Zapravo to možemo zaključiti
10:04
using really basic signal processing.
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koristeći osnovnu obradu znakova.
10:06
Here's a simple way to do it.
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Evo jednostavnog načina kako to učiniti.
10:08
Well, a reasonable expectation
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Razumno je za očekivati
10:10
is that somebody's fame in a given period of time
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da će nečija slava u određenom razdoblju
10:12
should be roughly the average of their fame before
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biti otprilike prosjek slave te osobe
10:14
and their fame after.
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prije i nakon tog razdoblja.
10:16
So that's sort of what we expect.
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To je otprilike ono što mi očekujemo.
10:18
And we compare that to the fame that we observe.
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I to uspoređujemo sa slavom koju promatramo.
10:21
And we just divide one by the other
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Samo podijelimo jedno drugim
10:23
to produce something we call a suppression index.
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kako bismo dobili takozvani indeks zabrane.
10:25
If the suppression index is very, very, very small,
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Ako je indeks zabrane vrlo, vrlo, vrlo malen,
10:28
then you very well might be being suppressed.
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onda ste vrlo vjerojatno bili zabranjeni.
10:30
If it's very large, maybe you're benefiting from propaganda.
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Ako je vrlo velik, možda profitirate od propagande.
10:34
JM: Now you can actually look at
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JM: Zapravo možete promatrati
10:36
the distribution of suppression indexes over whole populations.
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raspored indeksa zabrane unutar populacija.
10:39
So for instance, here --
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Na primjer, ovdje --
10:41
this suppression index is for 5,000 people
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ovo je indeks zabrane za 5.000 ljudi
10:43
picked in English books where there's no known suppression --
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odabranih u engleskim knjigama u kojima nije zabilježeno zabranjivanje --
10:45
it would be like this, basically tightly centered on one.
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bilo bi ovako, usko centrirano oko jednog.
10:47
What you expect is basically what you observe.
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Ono što očekujete u biti je ono što i vidite.
10:49
This is distribution as seen in Germany --
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Ovo je raspored za Njemačku --
10:51
very different, it's shifted to the left.
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vrlo različito, pomaknuto je ulijevo.
10:53
People talked about it twice less as it should have been.
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Ljudi su o tome razgovarali upola manje nego što su trebali.
10:56
But much more importantly, the distribution is much wider.
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No, mnogo je važnije da je raspored širi.
10:58
There are many people who end up on the far left on this distribution
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Ima mnogo ljudi koji su sasvim na lijevoj strani rasporeda
11:01
who are talked about 10 times fewer than they should have been.
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i o kojima se govori 10 puta manje nego što bi se trebalo.
11:04
But then also many people on the far right
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Ali isto tako ima mnogo ljudi na sasvim desnoj strani
11:06
who seem to benefit from propaganda.
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koji, izgleda, profitiraju od propagande.
11:08
This picture is the hallmark of censorship in the book record.
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Ova je slika glavni simbol cenzure u knjigama.
11:11
ELA: So culturomics
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ELA: Dakle, kulturomika
11:13
is what we call this method.
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jest ime koje smo dali ovoj metodi.
11:15
It's kind of like genomics.
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Nalikuje na genomiku.
11:17
Except genomics is a lens on biology
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Osim što je genomika pogled na biologiju,
11:19
through the window of the sequence of bases in the human genome.
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pogled na slijed baza u ljudskom genomu.
11:22
Culturomics is similar.
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Kulturomika je slična tome.
11:24
It's the application of massive-scale data collection analysis
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To je primjena analize ogromnog skupa podataka
11:27
to the study of human culture.
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na proučavanje ljudske kulture.
11:29
Here, instead of through the lens of a genome,
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Ovdje, umjesto da promatramo genom,
11:31
through the lens of digitized pieces of the historical record.
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promatramo digitalizirane dijelove povijesnih zapisa.
11:34
The great thing about culturomics
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Ono što je odlično kod kulturomike
11:36
is that everyone can do it.
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jest to da se svi mogu njome baviti.
11:38
Why can everyone do it?
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Zašto se svi mogu njome baviti?
11:40
Everyone can do it because three guys,
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Svi se mogu njome baviti jer su tri tipa,
11:42
Jon Orwant, Matt Gray and Will Brockman over at Google,
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Jon Orwant, Matt Gray i Will Brockman iz Googlea
11:45
saw the prototype of the Ngram Viewer,
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vidjeli prototip preglednika Ngram
11:47
and they said, "This is so fun.
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i rekli: "Ovo je tako zabavno.
11:49
We have to make this available for people."
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Moramo ljudima omogućiti pristup tome."
11:52
So in two weeks flat -- the two weeks before our paper came out --
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Za samo dva tjedna -- dva tjedna prije nego nam je objavljen članak --
11:54
they coded up a version of the Ngram Viewer for the general public.
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iskodirali su verziju pregledika Ngram za javnost.
11:57
And so you too can type in any word or phrase that you're interested in
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Tako da i vi možete unijeti bilo koju riječ ili izraz koji vas zanima
12:00
and see its n-gram immediately --
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i odmah vidjeti njegove n-grame --
12:02
also browse examples of all the various books
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isto tako možete pregledavati primjere iz svih knjiga
12:04
in which your n-gram appears.
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u kojima se pojavljuje vaš n-gram.
12:06
JM: Now this was used over a million times on the first day,
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JM: Ovaj je preglednik korišten više od milijun puta prvog dana,
12:08
and this is really the best of all the queries.
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i ovo je zapravo najbolji od svih upita.
12:10
So people want to be their best, put their best foot forward.
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Ljudi žele dati sve od sebe, pokazati se u najboljem svijetlu.
12:13
But it turns out in the 18th century, people didn't really care about that at all.
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Ali ispada da u 18. stoljeću ljudima uopće nije bilo stalo do toga.
12:16
They didn't want to be their best, they wanted to be their beft.
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Nisu željeli dati sve od sebe, željeli su dati fve od sebe.
12:19
So what happened is, of course, this is just a mistake.
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Naravno, ovdje se radi samo o pogrešci.
12:22
It's not that strove for mediocrity,
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Nije da su težili osrednjosti,
12:24
it's just that the S used to be written differently, kind of like an F.
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već se S prije pisao drugačije, pomalo nalik na F.
12:27
Now of course, Google didn't pick this up at the time,
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Naravno, Google to nije prepoznao
12:30
so we reported this in the science article that we wrote.
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i to smo napomenuli u znanstvenom članku koji smo napisali.
12:33
But it turns out this is just a reminder
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No, ispada da je ovo samo podsjetnik da,
12:35
that, although this is a lot of fun,
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iako je ovo vrlo zabavno,
12:37
when you interpret these graphs, you have to be very careful,
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kad tumačite ove grafove, morate biti vrlo oprezni
12:39
and you have to adopt the base standards in the sciences.
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i morate usvojiti ove temeljne znastvene standarde.
12:42
ELA: People have been using this for all kinds of fun purposes.
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ELA: Ljudi ovo koriste za razne zabavne namjene.
12:45
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:52
Actually, we're not going to have to talk,
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Zapravo, ne moramo ni govoriti,
12:54
we're just going to show you all the slides and remain silent.
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samo ćemo vam pokazati sve slajdove i šutjeti.
12:57
This person was interested in the history of frustration.
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Ovu osobu je zanimala povijest frustracije.
13:00
There's various types of frustration.
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Postoje različite vrste frustracija.
13:03
If you stub your toe, that's a one A "argh."
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Kad se udarite u nožni prst, to je "argh" s jednim A.
13:06
If the planet Earth is annihilated by the Vogons
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Ako plant Zemlju unište Vogonci
13:08
to make room for an interstellar bypass,
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kako bi napravili mjesta za međuzvjezdanu zaobilaznicu,
13:10
that's an eight A "aaaaaaaargh."
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to je "aaaaaaaargh" s 8 A-ova.
13:12
This person studies all the "arghs,"
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Ova osoba proučava sve "arghove",
13:14
from one through eight A's.
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od jednog do 8 A-ova.
13:16
And it turns out
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Ispada da su
13:18
that the less-frequent "arghs"
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manje učestali "arghovi"
13:20
are, of course, the ones that correspond to things that are more frustrating --
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naravno, oni koji odgovaraju stvarima koje izazivaju veću frustraciju --
13:23
except, oddly, in the early 80s.
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osim, čudno, početkom 80-ih.
13:26
We think that might have something to do with Reagan.
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Mislimo da to možda ima veze s Reaganom.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:30
JM: There are many usages of this data,
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JM: Ovi se podaci mogu koristiti za razne namjene,
13:33
but the bottom line is that the historical record is being digitized.
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ali ono što je bitno jest da se povijesni zapisi digitaliziraju.
13:36
Google has started to digitize 15 million books.
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Google je počeo digitalizirati 15 milijuna knjiga.
13:38
That's 12 percent of all the books that have ever been published.
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To je 12 posto svih knjiga koje su ikad izdane.
13:40
It's a sizable chunk of human culture.
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To je povelik dio ljudske kulture.
13:43
There's much more in culture: there's manuscripts, there newspapers,
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U kulturi ima još mnogo toga: rukopisi, novine,
13:46
there's things that are not text, like art and paintings.
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postoje stvari koje nisu tekst, poput umjetnosti i slika.
13:48
These all happen to be on our computers,
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To će sve biti na našim računalima,
13:50
on computers across the world.
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na računalima u cijelome svijetu.
13:52
And when that happens, that will transform the way we have
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A kad se to dogodi, promijenit će se način na koji smo
13:55
to understand our past, our present and human culture.
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shvaćali svoju prošlost, svoju sadašnjost i ljudsku kulturu.
13:57
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
13:59
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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