Don't fear superintelligent AI | Grady Booch

Translator: Alicia Fontela Morán Reviewer: Xosé María Moreno

When I was a kid, I was the quintessential nerd.

Cando era un neno, era o típico friqui.

I think some of you were, too.

Creo que algúns de vostedes tamén.

(Laughter)

(risos)

And you, sir, who laughed the loudest, you probably still are.

E vostede, señor, o que ri máis alto, pode que aínda o sexa.

(Laughter)

(risos)

I grew up in a small town in the dusty plains of north Texas,

Medrei nunha cidade pequena nas poirentas chairas do norte de Texas,

the son of a sheriff who was the son of a pastor.

son fillo dun sheriff que era fillo dun pastor.

Getting into trouble was not an option.

así que mellor non meterme en problemas.

And so I started reading calculus books for fun.

Por tanto comecei a ler libros de cálculo por divertimento.

(Laughter)

(risos)

You did, too.

Vostede tamén.

That led me to building a laser and a computer and model rockets,

Iso levoume a construir un láser, un computador, cohetes,

and that led me to making rocket fuel in my bedroom.

e a facer combustible para foguetes no meu cuarto.

Now, in scientific terms,

Agora, en termos científicos,

we call this a very bad idea.

a iso chámamoslle: unha moi mala idea.

(Laughter)

Around that same time,

(risos)

Ao mesmo tempo, estreábase

Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey" came to the theaters,

2001, unha odisea no espazo de Stanley Kubrick,

and my life was forever changed.

e a miña vida cambiaba para sempre.

I loved everything about that movie,

Encantoume todo desa película,

especially the HAL 9000.

sobre todo HAL 9000.

Now, HAL was a sentient computer

HAL era un computador consciente

designed to guide the Discovery spacecraft

deseñado para guiar o Discovery

from the Earth to Jupiter.

da Terra a Xúpiter.

HAL was also a flawed character,

HAL era ademais un personaxe con defectos,

for in the end he chose to value the mission over human life.

xa que ao final lle deu máis importancia á misión ca á vida humana.

Now, HAL was a fictional character,

Agora, HAL pertence á ficción

but nonetheless he speaks to our fears,

pero aínda así fala dos nosos medos

our fears of being subjugated

a sermos dominados

by some unfeeling, artificial intelligence

por unha intelixencia artificial (IA) sen sentimentos

who is indifferent to our humanity.

que é indiferente á nosa humanidade.

I believe that such fears are unfounded.

Creo que eses medos non teñen fundamento.

Indeed, we stand at a remarkable time

De feito, estamos nunha importante época

in human history,

para a historia humana

where, driven by refusal to accept the limits of our bodies and our minds,

na que, por negarnos a aceptar os límites dos nosos corpos e mentes,

we are building machines

estamos construíndo máquinas

of exquisite, beautiful complexity and grace

de exquisita beleza, complexidade e graza

that will extend the human experience

que ampliarán a experiencia humana

in ways beyond our imagining.

de formas que nin imaxinamos.

After a career that led me from the Air Force Academy

Despois de pasar da Academia da Forza Aérea

to Space Command to now,

ao Mando Espacial da Forza Aérea,

I became a systems engineer,

pasei a enxeñeiro de sistemas

and recently I was drawn into an engineering problem

e hai pouco metéronme nun problema de enxeñaría

associated with NASA's mission to Mars.

relacionado coa misión da NASA a Marte.

Now, in space flights to the Moon,

Agora, nos voos espaciais á Lúa,

we can rely upon mission control in Houston

dependemos do control de Houston para vixiar

to watch over all aspects of a flight.

todos os aspectos do voo.

However, Mars is 200 times further away,

Porén Marte está 200 veces máis lonxe

and as a result it takes on average 13 minutes

e por tanto un sinal tarda arredor de 13 minutos

for a signal to travel from the Earth to Mars.

en viaxar dende a Terra ata alí.

If there's trouble, there's not enough time.

Se hai algún problema, é demasiado tempo.

And so a reasonable engineering solution

Unha solución razoable

calls for us to put mission control

pasa por incluír o control da misión

inside the walls of the Orion spacecraft.

dentro das paredes da nave espacial Orión.

Another fascinating idea in the mission profile

Outra idea fascinante do perfil da misión

places humanoid robots on the surface of Mars

sitúa a robots humanoides na superficie de Marte

before the humans themselves arrive,

antes ca os propios humanos,

first to build facilities

primeiro para construír infraestruturas

and later to serve as collaborative members of the science team.

e despois para serviren como colaboradores do equipo científico.

Now, as I looked at this from an engineering perspective,

Desde a perspectiva da enxeñaría,

it became very clear to me that what I needed to architect

quedoume moi claro que o que necesitaba deseñar

was a smart, collaborative,

era unha intelixencia artificial

socially intelligent artificial intelligence.

esperta, colaborativa e socialmente intelixente.

In other words, I needed to build something very much like a HAL

É dicir, precisaba construír algo moi parecido a HAL

but without the homicidal tendencies.

pero sen as súas tendencias homicidas.

(Laughter)

(risos)

Let's pause for a moment.

Deteñámonos un momento.

Is it really possible to build an artificial intelligence like that?

É posible construírmos unha intelixencia artificial coma esa?

Actually, it is.

Pois, si.

In many ways,

Por moitas razóns,

this is a hard engineering problem

este é un difícil problema de enxeñaría

with elements of AI,

cos elementos da lA,

not some wet hair ball of an AI problem that needs to be engineered.

non só unhas pedriñas no camiño que deben ser tratadas pola enxeñaría.

To paraphrase Alan Turing,

Parafraseando a Alan Turing,

I'm not interested in building a sentient machine.

Non quero construír unha máquina con sentimentos.

I'm not building a HAL.

Non constrúo un HAL.

All I'm after is a simple brain,

Só busco un cerebro simple,

something that offers the illusion of intelligence.

algo que ofrece a ilusión da intelixencia.

The art and the science of computing have come a long way

A arte e a ciencia informática percorreron un longo camiño

since HAL was onscreen,

dende que vimos a HAL,

and I'd imagine if his inventor Dr. Chandra were here today,

e creo que se o Dr. Chandra, o seu inventor, estivese aquí hoxe,

he'd have a whole lot of questions for us.

tería moitas preguntas que facernos.

Is it really possible for us

Énos posible coller un sistema

to take a system of millions upon millions of devices,

de millóns e millóns de dispositivos,

to read in their data streams,

medir os seus datos,

to predict their failures and act in advance?

predicir os seus fallos e anticiparnos?

Yes.

É.

Can we build systems that converse with humans in natural language?

Podemos crear sistemas que falen nunha linguaxe natural?

Yes.

Podemos.

Can we build systems that recognize objects, identify emotions,

Podemos crear sistemas que recoñezan obxectos,

emote themselves, play games and even read lips?

identifiquen e expresen emocións, xoguen, lean os beizos?

Yes.

Podemos.

Can we build a system that sets goals,

Podemos crear un sistema que fixe metas,

that carries out plans against those goals and learns along the way?

cree plans para acadalas e de paso aprenda?

Yes.

Podemos.

Can we build systems that have a theory of mind?

Podemos construír sistemas que teñan unha teoría da mente?

This we are learning to do.

Isto é o que estamos a aprender a facer.

Can we build systems that have an ethical and moral foundation?

Podemos construír un sistema que teña principios éticos e morais?

This we must learn how to do.

Isto é o que debemos aprender.

So let's accept for a moment

Aceptemos por un momento

that it's possible to build such an artificial intelligence

que podemos construír esta intelixencia artificial

for this kind of mission and others.

para este e outro tipo de misións.

The next question you must ask yourself is,

A seguinte pregunta que se deben facer é:

should we fear it?

deberiamos de lle ter medo?

Now, every new technology

Todas as novas tecnoloxías

brings with it some measure of trepidation.

traen consigo certo grao de inquietude.

When we first saw cars,

A primeira vez que a xente viu un coche,

people lamented that we would see the destruction of the family.

queixábase de que ía destruír as familias.

When we first saw telephones come in,

Cando vimos por primeira vez os teléfonos,

people were worried it would destroy all civil conversation.

preocupábanos que acabasen coas conversas civilizadas.

At a point in time we saw the written word become pervasive,

Nalgún momento cremos que a escritura se volvería ubicua,

people thought we would lose our ability to memorize.

que se perdería a capacidade de memorizar.

These things are all true to a degree,

Todo isto é verdade ata certo punto,

but it's also the case that these technologies

pero tamén o é que estas tecnoloxías

brought to us things that extended the human experience

nos brindaron avances que ampliaron a experiencia humana

in some profound ways.

de formas moi profundas.

So let's take this a little further.

Así que sigamos un pouco máis.

I do not fear the creation of an AI like this,

Non me dá medo a creación dunha IA coma esta,

because it will eventually embody some of our values.

xa que, co tempo, encarnará algúns dos nosos valores.

Consider this: building a cognitive system is fundamentally different

Tendo isto en conta: construír un sistema cognitivo é distinto

than building a traditional software-intensive system of the past.

a crear un anticuado sistema baseado en software intensivo.

We don't program them. We teach them.

Non os programamos, aprendémoslles.

In order to teach a system how to recognize flowers,

Para lles aprendermos a como recoñeceren as flores,

I show it thousands of flowers of the kinds I like.

amosaríalles moitas flores das miñas variedades preferidas.

In order to teach a system how to play a game --

Para aprenderlles como xogar a un xogo...

Well, I would. You would, too.

Eu faríao, e vós tamén.

I like flowers. Come on.

De verdade que me gustan as flores.

To teach a system how to play a game like Go,

Para ensinarlle a un sistema a xogar a un xogo coma Go

I'd have it play thousands of games of Go,

faríao xogar milleiros de partidas.

but in the process I also teach it

E no proceso aprenderíalle

how to discern a good game from a bad game.

a distinguir unha boa partida dunha mala.

If I want to create an artificially intelligent legal assistant,

Se quixese crear unha IA coa función de asistente legal

I will teach it some corpus of law

aprenderíalle un corpus legal

but at the same time I am fusing with it

ao mesmo tempo que lle introduciría

the sense of mercy and justice that is part of that law.

o sentido da misericordia e xustiza que é parte da lei.

In scientific terms, this is what we call ground truth,

En termos científicos chámaselles verdades fundamentais

and here's the important point:

e o máis importante:

in producing these machines,

ao producirmos estas máquinas

we are therefore teaching them a sense of our values.

estámoslles inculcando os nosos valores.

To that end, I trust an artificial intelligence

Chegados a este punto, confío nunha IA

the same, if not more, as a human who is well-trained.

tanto, se non máis, ca nun humano ben adestrado.

But, you may ask,

Preguntarédesvos

what about rogue agents,

que pasa cos axentes corruptos,

some well-funded nongovernment organization?

con algunhas ONG ben financiadas?

I do not fear an artificial intelligence in the hand of a lone wolf.

Unha IA en mans dun lobo solitario non me pon medo.

Clearly, we cannot protect ourselves against all random acts of violence,

Non nos podemos autoprotexer de todo acto aleatorio de violencia

but the reality is such a system

pero a realidade é que tal sistema

requires substantial training and subtle training

precisa dun adestramento substancial e sutil

far beyond the resources of an individual.

moi por riba das capacidades dun único individuo.

And furthermore,

E ademais é máis complicado

it's far more than just injecting an internet virus to the world,

ca inxectarmos un virus informático en todo o mundo.

where you push a button, all of a sudden it's in a million places

Premendo un botón o virus chega a milleiros de lugares

and laptops start blowing up all over the place.

e os portátiles empezan a estoupar.

Now, these kinds of substances are much larger,

Agora, este tipo de contidos son moito máis grandes

and we'll certainly see them coming.

e vémolos vir.

Do I fear that such an artificial intelligence

Teño medo a que unha IA deste tipo

might threaten all of humanity?

poida ameazar a toda a humanidade?

If you look at movies such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis,"

Se ves películas como Matrix, Metrópolis,

"The Terminator," shows such as "Westworld,"

Terminator, series como Westworld

they all speak of this kind of fear.

todas tratan este tipo de medos.

Indeed, in the book "Superintelligence" by the philosopher Nick Bostrom,

De feito, no libro Superintelixencia do filósofo Nick Bostrom

he picks up on this theme

este trata o mesmo tema

and observes that a superintelligence might not only be dangerous,

e opina que unha superintelixencia non só podería ser perigosa

it could represent an existential threat to all of humanity.

podería representar unha ameaza para toda a humanidade.

Dr. Bostrom's basic argument

O argumento do Dr. Bostrom

is that such systems will eventually

é que estes sistemas van chegar a ter nun momento

have such an insatiable thirst for information

tal insaciable fame de información

that they will perhaps learn how to learn

que pode que aprendan a como aprender

and eventually discover that they may have goals

e poden chegar a descubrir que teñen obxectivos

that are contrary to human needs.

contrarios ás necesidades humanas.

Dr. Bostrom has a number of followers.

O Dr. Bostrom ten seguidores.

He is supported by people such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking.

É apoiado por xente como Elon Musk ou Stephen Hawking.

With all due respect

Con todo o meu respecto

to these brilliant minds,

por estas mentes prodixiosas,

I believe that they are fundamentally wrong.

creo que se equivocan.

Now, there are a lot of pieces of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack,

Hai moitas partes da argumentación do Dr. Bostrom que analizar

and I don't have time to unpack them all,

e agora non teño tempo

but very briefly, consider this:

pero de forma moi breve, direi isto:

super knowing is very different than super doing.

a supersabedoría é moi diferente da superrealización.

HAL was a threat to the Discovery crew

HAL era unha ameaza

only insofar as HAL commanded all aspects of the Discovery.

para a tripulación do Discovery só se tomaba o control de toda a nave.

So it would have to be with a superintelligence.

O mesmo pasaría cunha superintelixencia.

It would have to have dominion over all of our world.

Tería que ter o dominio de todo o mundo.

This is the stuff of Skynet from the movie "The Terminator"

Isto é o que pasa coa Skynet de Terminator

in which we had a superintelligence

onde temos unha superintelixencia

that commanded human will,

que dirixe a vontade humana

that directed every device that was in every corner of the world.

e cada dispositivo situado en calquera recuncho do mundo.

Practically speaking,

Falando dende a práctica

it ain't gonna happen.

isto non vai pasar.

We are not building AIs that control the weather,

Non estamos deseñando IA que controlen o clima,

that direct the tides,

que dirixan as mareas,

that command us capricious, chaotic humans.

nin a nós, os caprichosos e caóticos humanos.

And furthermore, if such an artificial intelligence existed,

Ademais, de existir unha intelixencia artificial así

it would have to compete with human economies,

tería que competir coas economías humanas

and thereby compete for resources with us.

e competir con nós polos recursos.

And in the end --

E á fin e ao cabo

don't tell Siri this --

(non llo digan a Siri)

we can always unplug them.

podemos desconectalos.

(Laughter)

(risos)

We are on an incredible journey

Estamos nunha incrible viaxe de coevolución

of coevolution with our machines.

xunto coas nosas máquinas.

The humans we are today

Os humanos que somos agora

are not the humans we will be then.

non somos os que seremos daquela.

To worry now about the rise of a superintelligence

Preocuparse agora polo auxe dunha superintelixencia

is in many ways a dangerous distraction

é unha distracción perigosa

because the rise of computing itself

xa que o auxe da informática en si

brings to us a number of human and societal issues

xa dá lugar a algúns asuntos humanos e sociais

to which we must now attend.

aos que temos que atender.

How shall I best organize society

Como se pode organizar a sociedade

when the need for human labor diminishes?

cando diminúe a necesidade de capital humano?

How can I bring understanding and education throughout the globe

Como podo achegarlle compresión e educación a todo o mundo

and still respect our differences?

respectando as nosas diferenzas?

How might I extend and enhance human life through cognitive healthcare?

Como podo mellorar a vida das persoas a través da medicina cognitiva?

How might I use computing

Como podo utilizar a informática

to help take us to the stars?

para que cheguemos ás estrelas?

And that's the exciting thing.

E iso é o excitante.

The opportunities to use computing

As oportunidades de usar a informática

to advance the human experience

para que progrese a experiencia humana

are within our reach,

están ao noso alcance

here and now,

aquí e agora

and we are just beginning.

e isto é só o comezo.

Thank you very much.

Moitas grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)