The 4 greatest threats to the survival of humanity

譯者: Lily Cheng 審譯者: Helen Chang

In January of 1995, Russia detected a nuclear missile headed its way.

1995 年 1 月，俄國偵測到 一枚飛向它的飛彈

The alert went all the way to the president,

警報一路送到總統手上

who was deciding whether to strike back

他得決定是否反擊

when another system contradicted the initial warning.

因為另一系統得出相反結果

What they thought was the first missile in a massive attack

一開始偵測以為的攻擊飛彈

was actually a research rocket studying the Northern Lights.

其實只是研究對極光火箭

This incident happened after the end of the Cold War,

這起事件發生在冷戰之後

but was nevertheless one of the closest calls we’ve had

卻是有史以來人類最接近

to igniting a global nuclear war.

爆發全球核戰的時刻

With the invention of the atomic bomb,

原子彈的發明

humanity gained the power to destroy itself for the first time in our history.

第一次賦予人類自我毀滅的能力

Since then, our existential risk—

從那開始，生存風險

risk of either extinction

滅種風險

or the unrecoverable collapse of human civilization—

文明煙滅至無法重建的風險

has steadily increased.

就不斷增加

It’s well within our power to reduce this risk,

我們完全能降低風險

but in order to do so,

想要做到

we have to understand which of our activities

我們必須搞清楚是哪些活動

pose existential threats now, and which might in the future.

造成現在的風險，以及未來的風險

So far, our species has survived 2,000 centuries,

地球生物已經存續 2000 個世紀

each with some extinction risk from natural causes—

面對自然因素造成的滅絕風險

asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, and the like.

天體撞擊、超級火山爆發等等

Assessing existential risk is an inherently uncertain business

生存風險本來就難以評估

because usually when we try to figure out how likely something is,

每當我們試圖分析一件事的可能性

we check how often it's happened before.

我們會先查之前發生的次數

But the complete destruction of humanity has never happened before.

人類大滅絕這件事卻還未發生過

While there’s no perfect method to determine our risk from natural threats,

雖然沒有辦法能完美預估自然災害風險

experts estimate it’s about 1 in 10,000 per century.

專家可以大略預估一世紀中 約有萬分之一的機率

Nuclear weapons were our first addition to that baseline.

核子武器是人類第一次對 這個基準點添磚加瓦

While there are many risks associated with nuclear weapons,

在核子武器帶來的諸多風險之中

the existential risk comes from the possibility

生存風險的可能性來自於

of a global nuclear war that leads to a nuclear winter,

核武戰爭所導致的核子冬天

where soot from burning cities blocks out the sun for years,

城市燃燒的灰燼連年遮住太陽

causing the crops that humanity depends on to fail.

導致人類賴以為生的作物歉收

We haven't had a nuclear war yet,

核武戰爭目前尚未發生

but our track record is too short to tell if they’re inherently unlikely

但是歷史還太短，無法分辨 是機率極低所以未發生

or we’ve simply been lucky.

還是剛好逃過一劫

We also can’t say for sure

沒人能確定

whether a global nuclear war would cause a nuclear winter so severe

全球核武戰爭帶來的核子冬天

it would pose an existential threat to humanity.

是否會造成人類生存危機

The next major addition to our existential risk was climate change.

第二個帶來生存風險的主要問題 是氣候變遷

Like nuclear war, climate change could result

就像核戰，氣候變遷 可能會造成許多可怕的結果

in a lot of terrible scenarios that we should be working hard to avoid,

是人類應該努力避免的

but that would stop short of causing extinction or unrecoverable collapse.

雖然氣候變遷未必會 滅絕全人類或使末日降臨

We expect a few degrees Celsius of warming,

我們預測溫度會稍微上升幾度

but can’t yet completely rule out 6 or even 10 degrees,

但無法排除攝氏 6 度甚至 10 度的可能性

which would cause a calamity of possibly unprecedented proportions.

這將造成前所未有的災難

Even in this worst-case scenario,

儘管在這最糟糕的設想中

it’s not clear whether warming would pose a direct existential risk,

地球暖化不一定「直接」造成生存風險

but the disruption it would cause would likely make us more vulnerable

卻會使人類更多暴露在其他生存風險中

to other existential risks.

The greatest risks may come from technologies that are still emerging.

最大的風險是來自於發展中的科技

Take engineered pandemics.

比如人造流行病

The biggest catastrophes in human history have been from pandemics.

曾造成人類史上最大的災難

And biotechnology is enabling us to modify and create germs

生物科技能夠改變和創造細菌

that could be much more deadly than naturally occurring ones.

它們比自然演化的細菌更加致命

Such germs could cause pandemics through biowarfare and research accidents.

這些人造細菌可能因 生化戰爭或研究洩漏造成疫情

Decreased costs of genome sequencing and modification,

基因定序和編輯成本降低

along with increased availability of potentially dangerous information

與其他能更輕易地獲取潛在危險資訊

like the published genomes of deadly viruses,

比如公開的致命病毒基因組

also increase the number of people and groups

也使更多人或者團體

who could potentially create such pathogens.

能夠利用這些資訊來製造病原

Another concern is unaligned AI.

下個議題是不受規範的人工智慧(AI)

Most AI researchers think this will be the century

多數 AI 學者認為這個世紀

where we develop artificial intelligence that surpasses human abilities

將會是 AI 能力全面輾壓人類的世紀

across the board.

If we cede this advantage, we place our future in the hands

我們讓出了優勢，就等於用未來豪賭

of the systems we create.

全押我們創造的系統能成功

Even if created solely with humanity’s best interests in mind,

就算我們以符合人類最高利益為出發點

superintelligent AI could pose an existential risk

聰明的 AI 仍造成潛在的生存風險

if it isn’t perfectly aligned with human values—

除非它們完全遵循人類規則

a task scientists are finding extremely difficult.

科學家認為這點機率渺茫

Based on what we know at this point,

以我們目前所知

some experts estimate the anthropogenic existential risk

專家們評估人禍造成的生存風險

is more than 100 times higher than the background rate of natural risk.

比天災的發生機率高 100 倍

But these odds depend heavily on human choices.

這個機率與人類的選擇息息相關

Because most of the risk is from human action, and it’s within human control.

因為風險大多來自人類的行為 可以為人所控制

If we treat safeguarding humanity's future as the defining issue of our time,

如果將保衛人類未來視為最高任務

we can reduce this risk.

風險是可以降低的

Whether humanity fulfils its potential—

人類是發揮潛力去阻止危機

or not—

還是放任它

is in our hands.

掌握在我們的手中