The shocking danger of mountaintop removal -- and why it must end | Michael Hendryx

67,278 views ・ 2018-06-12

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00:00
Let's say that you wanted to conduct an experiment.
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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Melody Tang
假設你想要進行一項實驗。
[麥可·亨德利克斯]
00:05
In this experiment,
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在這個實驗中,你隨機指派一些人
00:06
you randomly assign people to live in blasting zones
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去住在爆破區,
00:10
or in control locations without explosives going off over their heads.
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或是住在沒有爆裂物 會在頭上炸開的控制區。
00:16
They live in the community for years,
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他們住在社區很多年,
00:18
just downwind and downstream
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社區就在幾乎每天會使用
00:20
from sites where tons of explosives are used almost daily.
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大量爆裂物之地點的 下風處和下游處。
00:24
And millions of gallons of water contaminated.
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數百萬加侖的水都受到污染。
00:27
With random assignment, you could carefully study
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透過隨機分派, 你可以很仔細地研究
00:30
the long-term health effects of living in these blasting communities
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住在這些爆破地區的長期健康影響,
00:34
without a bunch of annoying confounders and covariates.
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而不須考慮一堆惱人的 干擾因子和共變量。
00:39
Random assignment does wonders.
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隨機分派能帶來神奇的效果。
00:42
That would be a rigorous, powerful scientific inquiry
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這會是一項嚴格且強大的科學探索,
00:46
into the effects of these environmental exposures.
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來研究暴露在這些環境下 所受到的影響。
00:49
Of course, such a study could never be done.
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當然,永遠不可能做這樣的研究。
00:52
Most scientists wouldn't have the stomach for it.
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大部分的科學家不會有這種膽量的。
00:55
The institutional review board would never approve it;
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研究倫理委員會也絕對不會批准;
00:58
it would never pass human subjects review,
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它永遠無法通過人體試驗審查,
01:00
because it would be unethical, immoral.
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因為這麼做是不合倫理,也不道德。
01:04
And yet in effect, it is happening right now.
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但,實際上,這種事正在發生。
01:08
In my mind, this prompts some questions.
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這在我腦中浮現出了一些問題。
01:10
What is the ethical obligation
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相信人們正處在危險中的科學家, 有什麼倫理的義務?
01:12
of the scientists who believes populations are in danger?
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01:16
How much evidence is enough to be confident of our conclusions?
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要有多少證據, 才能夠對我們的結論有信心?
01:21
Where is the line between scientific certainty and the need to act?
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科學的必然性和行動的必要性 之間的界線在哪裡?
01:27
The unplanned experiment that is happening right now
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目前正在進行的那個未規劃之實驗
01:29
is called mountaintop removal.
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叫做「山巔移除」。
01:31
The abbreviation for it is MTR.
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它的縮寫是 MTR。
01:34
It is a form of surface coal mining
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它是露天煤礦開採的一種形式,
01:36
that takes place in Appalachia, here in the United States.
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在美國這裡的 阿帕拉契山區就有被使用。
01:40
MTR occurs in four states: Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee.
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山巔移除發生在四個州: 維吉尼亞州、西維吉尼亞州、
肯塔基州,和田納西州。
01:46
Over 1.2 million acres have been mined in this way.
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超過一千兩百萬英畝的面積 都是用這種方式來開採的。
01:50
This is an area about the size of Delaware
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這個面積大約等同於 德拉威州的大小,
01:53
but it is spread over a footprint
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但受到影響的地區
01:55
as large as Vermont and New Hampshire combined.
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等同於佛蒙特州及新罕布夏州 加起來一樣大的面積。
01:59
The process involves clear-cutting ancient Appalachian forest,
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過程涉及對古老的阿巴拉契亞 山脈森林進行皆伐作業。
02:03
home to some of the richest biodiversity on the planet.
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這裡是地球上生物多樣性 最豐富的地區之一。
02:07
The trees are typically burned or dumped into adjacent valleys.
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通常,樹木會被燒掉 或丟棄在毗連的溪谷中。
02:11
Then, to reach the buried coal seams,
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接著,為了開採被埋在下面的煤礦,
02:14
explosives are used to remove up to 800 feet of mountain elevation.
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他們使用爆裂物來移除
高達八百英呎的山脈高度。
02:21
Over 1,500 tons of explosives
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光是在西維吉尼亞州, 煤礦開採就用了
02:23
are used for coal mining in West Virginia alone.
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超過一千五百噸的爆裂物,
02:27
Every day.
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這是每天的用量。
02:30
Rock and soil debris is dumped over the valley sides
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岩石和土壤殘骸被丟棄在溪谷邊,
02:32
where it permanently buries headwater streams.
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將河源上游的溪流永遠掩埋住。
02:35
So far, over 500 mountains have been destroyed.
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到目前為止, 超過五百座山已經被摧毀。
02:41
About 2,000 miles of streams have been permanently buried.
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大約兩千英哩的溪流 已經被永遠掩埋。
02:44
Water emerging from the base of the valley fills is highly contaminated
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從溪谷底部的填土中所流出來的水
都受到嚴重污染,
02:48
and remains contaminated for decades.
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且接下來數十年 都仍然會是受污染的。
02:51
The coal then has to be chemically treated,
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接著,煤礦還需要經過 化學處理、壓碎,並清洗,
02:53
crushed and washed before it can be transported to power plants and burned.
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之後才能被運送到電廠做燃燒用。
02:58
This cleaning takes place on-site.
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清潔是直接在現場進行。
03:00
The process produces more air pollution
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過程產生更多的空氣污染,
03:03
and contaminates billions of gallons of water with metals,
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並讓數十億加侖的水 受到金屬、硫酸鹽、
03:07
sulfates, cleaning chemicals and other impurities.
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清潔化學物,及其他雜質的污染。
03:12
All of this to produce three percent of US electricity demand --
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所有這一切,就是為了產生 3% 的美國電力需求——
03:17
only three percent of US electricity demand.
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僅僅 3% 的美國電力需求。
03:22
As you can appreciate, this prompts all sorts of other questions.
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各位應該可以理解, 這會帶來各種其他的問題。
03:26
What are the health impacts of mountaintop-removal mining?
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山巔移除採礦對於健康 會有什麼影響?
03:28
There are over a million people who live in counties where MTR takes place
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在使用山巔移除的郡中, 有超過一百萬的居民,
03:33
and millions more downstream and downwind.
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在下游和下風處還有其他數百萬人。
03:38
What has been the response of industry and government
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當有證據證明這些議題時,
03:40
when these issues are documented?
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產業和政府的回應是什麼呢?
03:43
And again, what is the ethical obligation of science
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同樣的,在面對這種 讓人不舒服的情況時,
03:46
when faced with this disturbing situation?
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科學家的倫理義務是什麼?
03:50
I began to research this issue in 2006.
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我從 2006 年就開始 研究這個議題。
03:53
I had just taken a job at West Virginia University.
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我那時剛才在西維吉尼亞 大學接了一份工作。
03:56
Before then, I hadn't done any research related to coal.
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在那之前,我從來沒有 做過任何和煤相關的研究。
04:00
But I started to hear stories
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但我開始聽到一些
04:02
from people who lived in these mining communities.
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由住在這些採礦社區的人 所說的故事。
04:05
They said that the water they drank was not clean,
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他們說,他們喝的水並不乾淨,
04:09
that the air they breathed was polluted.
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他們呼吸的空氣是受污染的。
04:12
They would tell me about their own illnesses
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他們告訴我他們自己的疾病,
04:14
or illnesses in their family.
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或是他們家人的疾病。
04:16
They were worried about how common cancer was in their neighborhoods.
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他們擔心在他們的鄰里中 癌症有多麼常見。
04:20
I met with many people in southern West Virginia
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我見過許多西維吉尼亞州南部 和肯塔基州東部的人,
04:22
and eastern Kentucky
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我傾聽那些故事, 聽他們訴說他們的擔憂。
04:24
to listen to those stories and hear their concerns.
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04:26
I searched the scientific literature
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我搜尋科學文獻,
04:28
and was surprised to learn that nothing had been published
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很驚訝地發現,沒有任何 關於美國煤礦開採
04:31
on the public health effects of coal mining in the United States.
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對大眾健康造成什麼 影響的文獻被出版。
04:35
Let me say that again --
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讓我再說一次—— 沒有任何關於美國煤礦開採
04:36
nothing had been published on the public health effects
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對大眾健康造成什麼 影響的文獻被出版。
04:39
of coal mining in the US.
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04:42
So I thought, "I can make a new contribution,
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所以,我心想: 「我可以做一點新的貢獻,
04:45
no matter what I find,
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不論我發現什麼,
04:47
to either confirm these concerns or to alleviate them."
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無論是確認或是緩解那些擔憂, 都會是貢獻。」
04:51
I had no personal or organizational agenda.
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我沒有個人或是組織的動機。
04:55
Many of my colleagues initially were skeptical
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我的許多同事一開始都懷疑
04:58
that there would be any link between public health and mining.
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大眾健康和採礦之間 會有任何連結嗎?
05:01
They predicted that the health problems could be explained by poverty
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他們的預測是, 健康問題可以用貧困,
05:05
or by lifestyle issues, like smoking and obesity.
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或抽煙和肥胖這類 生活習慣議題來解釋。
05:09
When I started, I thought maybe they would be right.
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剛開始,我心想他們可能是對的。
05:13
We started by analyzing existing databases
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我們一開始先分析既有的資料庫,
05:15
that allowed us to link population health to mining activity
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那讓我們能夠將居民健康 和採礦活動連結起來,
05:19
and to control statistically for age, sex, race, smoking, obesity, poverty,
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並在統計上控制年齡、 性別、種族、抽煙、
肥胖、貧困、教育、健康保險, 及其他我們能測量的變數。
05:25
education, health insurance and others we could measure.
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05:29
We found evidence that confirmed the concerns of the residents,
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我們發現了證據, 證明居民的憂慮是真的,
05:33
and we started to publish our findings.
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我們開始刊登我們的發現。
05:36
As a very brief summary,
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非常簡短地總結一下,
05:38
we found that people who live where mountaintop removal takes place
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我們發現,住在山巔移除地區的人
05:41
have significantly higher levels of cardiovascular disease,
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明顯比較有可能得到心血管疾病、
05:46
kidney disease and chronic lung disease like COPD.
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腎臟疾病,和慢性肺部疾病, 如慢性肺部阻塞。
05:50
Death rates from cancer are significantly elevated,
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癌症造成的死亡率顯著較高,
05:53
especially for lung cancer.
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特別是肺癌。
05:55
We've seen evidence for higher rates of birth defects
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我們看到造成較高的 嬰兒出生缺陷率
05:58
and for babies born at low birth weight.
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及新生兒體重過輕率的證據。
06:01
The difference in total mortality equates to about 1,200 excess deaths
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在其他風險都被控制的情況下,
山巔移除地區每年的總死亡人數 至少多出一千兩百人。
06:05
every year in MTR areas, controlling for other risks.
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06:09
Twelve hundred excess deaths every year.
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每年至少多一千兩百人死亡。
06:13
Not only are death rates higher,
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不僅是死亡率提高,
06:15
but they increase as the levels of mining go up
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採擴的程度提升時, 死亡率也會跟著增加,
06:17
in a dose-response manner.
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就像劑量反應一樣。
06:19
Next, we started to conduct community door-to-door health surveys.
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接著,我們開始進行 挨家挨戶的健康調查。
06:23
We surveyed people living within a few miles of MTR
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我們調查的對象,是住在 山巔移除附近幾英哩內的人,
06:27
versus similar rural communities without mining.
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與附近沒有採礦的 類似的農村社區中的居民做比較。
06:30
Survey results show higher levels of personal and family illness,
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調查結果顯示個人和家庭 疾病的比率比較高,
06:34
self-reported health status is poorer,
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自我呈報的健康狀況比較差,
06:36
and illness symptoms across a broad spectrum are more common.
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各種疾病症狀也都比較常見。
06:40
These studies are only associational.
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這些研究只是關聯性的。
06:44
We all know that correlation does not prove causation.
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我們都知道,有相關性 不能證明有因果關係。
06:48
These studies did not include data
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這些研究並沒有納入採礦社區 實際環境條件的資料。
06:49
on the actual environmental conditions in mining communities.
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06:52
So we started to collect and report on that.
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所以我們開始收集和呈報那些資料。
06:57
We found that violations of public drinking-water standards
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我們發現,公共飲用水 違反標準的狀況,
07:00
are seven times more common in MTR areas versus non-mining areas.
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山巔移除地區 是非採礦地區的七倍。
07:05
We collected air samples
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我們收集空氣樣本,
07:07
and found that particulate matter is elevated in mining communities,
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發現在採礦社區, 懸浮微粒的比率比較高,
07:10
especially in the ultra-fine range.
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特別是超細的微粒。
07:12
The dust in mining communities contains a complex mixture,
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採礦社區的塵土,成份相當複雜,
07:16
but includes high levels of silica, a known lung carcinogen,
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包括了相當多的矽, 已知會導致肺癌的物質,
07:20
and potentially harmful organic compounds.
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還有一些可能會造成傷害的 有機化合物。
07:23
We used the dust in laboratory experiments
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我們把塵土拿到實驗室做實驗,
07:26
and found that it induced cardiovascular dysfunction in rats.
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發現它會造成老鼠 出現心血管功能問題。
07:30
The dust also promoted the development
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將肺細胞放在試管中做實驗,
07:32
of lung cancer in human in vitro lung cells.
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發現這種塵土也會 促進人體的肺癌發展。
07:37
This is just a quick summary of some of our studies.
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這只是我們部分研究的總整。
07:41
The coal industry does not like what we have to say.
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煤礦業並不喜歡我們所提出的資訊。
07:46
Neither does the government in coal country.
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煤礦地區的政府也不喜歡。
07:49
Just like the tobacco industry paid for research
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就像香菸業會花錢資助研究
07:52
to defend the safety of smoking,
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來捍衛抽菸的安全性,
07:54
so the coal industry has tried to do the same
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煤礦業也試著做同樣的事,
07:56
by paying people to write papers claiming that MTR is safe.
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他們付錢給一些人,要他們寫論文 來宣稱山巔移除是安全的。
08:00
Lawyers have sent me harassing demands under the Freedom of Information Act,
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律師也依據資訊自由法 寄給我一些擾人的要求,
08:05
eventually denied by the courts.
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最終都被法庭否決。
08:07
I'd been attacked at public testimony at a Congressional hearing
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我曾經在國會聽證上被公然攻擊,
08:11
by a congressman with ties to the energy industry.
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攻擊我的是一名和能源產業 有關係的國會議員。
08:14
One governor has publicly declared that he refuses to read the research.
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有位州長曾經公開宣稱 他拒絕閱讀這項研究。
08:20
And after a meeting with a member of Congress,
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我曾和一位國會成員開會,
08:24
in which I specifically shared my research,
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並在會議中明確分享了我的研究,
08:26
I later heard that representative say they knew nothing about it.
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我後來卻聽說那位代表跟別人講, 他們對這研究一無所知。
08:30
I worked with scientists at the US Geological Survey
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我和美國地質調查局的科學家合作,
08:33
on environmental sampling for more than two years.
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進行環境採樣,合作超過兩年。
08:36
And just as they were starting to publish their findings,
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當他們正要開始公佈 他們的發現時,
08:38
they were suddenly instructed by their superiors
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他們突然接到他們主管的指示,
08:41
to stop work on this project.
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停止做這項專案計畫。
08:43
In August of this year, the National Academy of Sciences
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今年八月,美國國家科學院
08:47
was suddenly instructed by the federal government
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突然接到聯邦政府的指示,
08:50
to stop their independent review
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要求他們停止一項獨立審查,
08:52
of the public health consequences of surface mining.
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審查主題就是露天採礦 對公眾健康造成的後果。
08:56
These actions are politically motivated, in my view.
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在我看來,這些動作 背後的動機都是政治。
09:00
But there is opposition from researchers, too.
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但,也有來自研究者的反對。
09:04
At conferences or meetings, they express skepticism.
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他們會在討論會上或會議上 表達他們的懷疑。
09:07
OK, we are all taught, as scientists, to be skeptical.
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好,身為科學家, 我們都被教導要會懷疑。
09:12
They ask, "What about this possible explanation?"
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他們會問:「那這個 可能的解釋又該怎麼說?」
09:15
"Have you considered that alternative interpretation?"
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「你是否有考量過那一個 不同的詮釋方式?」
09:18
They wonder, "There must be some confounder that we missed.
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他們納悶:「我們一定有 遺漏掉某個干擾因子。
09:22
Some other variable we haven't accounted for."
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一定有我們沒考慮到的其他變數。」
09:25
"An in vitro study, what does that prove?"
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「在試管中做的研究, 證明了什麼?」
09:28
"A rat study -- how do we know the same effects would be found in people?"
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「老鼠實驗——我們怎麼知道 在人身上也會有同樣的效應?」
09:34
Maybe so.
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也許是如此。
09:36
Technically, you have to acknowledge that they could be right,
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技術上來說,你必須承認 他們有可能是對的,
09:39
but you know, maybe these health problems
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但你知道,也許這些健康問題
09:42
are not the result of some unmeasured confound.
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並非是由一些未被測量的 複雜因素所造成的。
09:46
Maybe they result from blowing up mountains
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也許它們就是把人們頭上的山頂
09:49
over people's heads.
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炸掉所造成的結果。
09:51
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:53
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:00
There can always be doubt, if doubt is what you seek.
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只要你的目的是懷疑, 你一定都能找到可懷疑的點。
10:03
Because we can never do that defining experiment.
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因為我們不可能做 那麼有決定性的實驗。
10:06
Any next study must always be associational.
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任何接下來的研究, 都一定只是關聯性的。
10:10
So perhaps you can understand why I've started to wonder,
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所以,也許你們可以了解, 為什麼我開始納悶,
10:13
how much evidence is enough?
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要有多少證據才夠?
10:15
I've published over 30 papers on this topic so far.
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針對這個議題,目前我已經 刊登了超過三十篇論文。
10:19
Along with my coauthors, other researchers have added to the evidence,
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此外我的共同作者及其他研究者 也補充了許多證據,
10:23
yet government doesn't want to listen,
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但,政府並不想傾聽,
10:25
and the industry says it's only correlational.
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產業則是說,那只是有相關性存在。
10:28
They say Appalachians have lifestyle issues.
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他們說,阿巴拉契亞山脈 有生活方式的議題。
10:30
As though it had never occurred to us
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說得好像我們從來沒有想過
10:32
to control for smoking or obesity or poverty or education
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要去控制抽菸、肥胖、貧窮、教育,
10:35
or health insurance.
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或健康保險這些變數。
10:37
We controlled for all of those and more.
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我們不只控制了 這些變數,還有其他的。
10:40
There comes a point where we don't need more research,
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早晚會有一個時間點, 我們將不再需要更多的研究,
10:44
where we can't ask people to be unwilling research subjects
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我們無法要求大家成為 非自願的研究對象
10:48
so we can do the next study.
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來讓我們進行下一項研究。
10:52
As scientists, we follow the data wherever it goes,
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身為科學家,我們跟著資料跑,
10:55
but sometimes data can only take us so far
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但有時,資料能提供的有限,
10:57
and we have to decide, as thinking, feeling human beings,
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做為能思考且有感覺的人類, 我們得要決定
11:00
what it means and when it is time to act.
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採取行動的意義是什麼, 及何時該採取行動。
11:03
I think that is true, not only for MTR but for other situations
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我想,不僅是針對山巔移除, 在其他情況也一樣,
11:06
where evidence is strong and concerning but imperfect.
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其他證據夠有力且讓人關注, 卻不夠完美的情況。
11:11
And when failing to act if you're wrong means people's lives.
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若沒有採取行動, 你錯了的代價就是人命。
11:17
It may seem strange that there is any controversy
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關於山巔移除的採礦方式 對健康所造成的影響,
11:20
over the health effects of mountaintop-removal mining.
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有任何爭議似乎是很奇怪的。
11:24
But somehow, this subject has wound up
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但,這個主題最後不知怎麼地
11:26
in a scientific and political twilight zone
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進入了科學和政治的灰色地帶,
11:28
alongside the debate over climate change
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同樣在這地帶的 還有對氣候變遷的辯論
11:30
or the argument years ago
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或是多年前關於抽菸 是否會致癌的爭執。
11:32
about whether or not smoking caused cancer.
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11:35
In this twilight zone, much of the data seems to point to one conclusion.
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在這個灰色地帶,
大部分的資料似乎都指向一個結論。
11:39
But the economics or the politics or the prevailing public view
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但經濟、政治,或佔優勢的公眾觀點
11:42
insist on the opposite conclusion.
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都堅持相反的結論。
11:46
When you're a scientist and you think you have a valid insight
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若你是名科學家, 且你認為你有一項有效的洞見
11:49
where the health of entire populations is at stake
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會攸關所有人的健康,
11:51
but you find yourself trapped
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但你卻發現你被困在
11:53
in this twilight zone of denial and disbelief,
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這個否認和不相信的灰色地帶中,
11:57
what is your moral and ethical obligation?
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你的道德和倫理義務是什麼?
12:01
Obviously, scientists are responsible for telling the truth as they see it,
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很顯然,科學家在看到真相時 有責任要將它說出來,
12:05
based on evidence.
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且要以證據為基礎。
12:07
Simply stated, we have an obligation to stand up for the data.
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簡單來說,我們有義務 要為資料站出來。
12:11
It can be extremely frustrating to wait around for public opinion
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若要等待公眾意見或是政治共識
12:14
or political consensus to catch up to the scientific understanding.
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趕上科學了解,可能會很讓人挫折。
12:17
But the more controversial the subject and the more frustrating the debate,
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但,主題越是有爭議性, 辯論越是讓人挫折,
12:22
the more critical it is for scientists to preserve our objectivity
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科學家就越需要能夠保有客觀性
12:26
and our reputation for integrity.
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和正直名譽。
12:28
Because integrity is the coin of the realm
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因為正直就是科學和公眾政策
12:31
in scientific and public policy debate.
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辯論中具有最高價值的。
12:33
In the long run,
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長期來看,
12:35
our reputation for integrity is the most powerful tool that we have,
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我們的正直名譽 是我們最強大的工具,
12:38
even more powerful than the data itself.
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甚至比資料本身都更強大。
12:42
Without an acknowledged integrity on the part of scientists,
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若科學家這一邊無法肯定正直,
12:45
no amount of data will ever convince people
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不論有多少資料,都不可能說服大家
12:47
to believe painful or difficult truths.
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去相信痛苦且難以相信的真相。
12:50
But when we cultivate and guard our reputation for integrity,
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但當我們能培養 和保衛我們的正直名譽,
12:56
when we patiently stand up for the data and keep doing the studies
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當我們能有耐心地為資料站出來,
並持續做研究,
12:59
and keep calmly bringing the results to the public,
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持續平靜地將結果帶給民眾,
13:02
that's when we have our greatest impact.
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那就是我們的影響達到最大的時候。
13:05
Eventually, scientific truth does and will win out.
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最終,科學真相確實會, 也一定會勝出。
13:13
How many lives will be lost while we wait?
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我們的等待,代價是多少條性命?
13:16
Too many already.
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已經太多了。
13:18
But prevail we will.
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但我們最後一定會勝利的。
13:21
Thank you.
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謝謝。
13:22
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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