Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it | Paul Hessburg

206,826 views ・ 2017-11-29

TED


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang
00:13
As you've probably noticed,
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你們可能已經注意到,
00:14
in recent years, a lot of western forests have burned
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近年來,有很多西部的森林
00:17
in large and destructive wildfires.
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遭到毀滅性的大型野火摧殘。
00:22
If you're like me --
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如果你們和我一樣,
00:24
this western landscape is actually why my family and I live here.
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像這樣的西部風景,就是我和 我的家人會住在這裡的原因。
00:29
And as a scientist and a father,
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身為科學家和父親,
00:31
I've become deeply concerned about what we're leaving behind
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我非常關切我們會留下什麼給
00:35
for our kids, and now my five grandkids.
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我們的孩子,和我現在的五個孫子。
00:40
In the US, an area that's larger than the state of Oregon has burned
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在美國,僅在過去十年間,
被火燒毀的面積就比奧勒崗州還大,
00:45
in just the last 10 years,
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00:48
and tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed.
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數萬個家園因此被摧毀。
00:53
Acres burned and homes destroyed have steadily increased
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過去三十年間,被燒毀的土地面積 和被摧毀的家園數目
00:57
over the last three decades,
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一直穩定在增加,
01:02
and individual fires that are bigger than 100,000 acres --
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而面積大於十萬英畝的個別火災數目
01:07
they're actually on the rise.
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事實上是在增加的。
01:09
These are what we call "megafires."
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我們稱這些大火為「超級大火」。
01:13
Megafires are the result of the way we've managed this western landscape
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超級大火發生的原因, 是我們過去 150 年來,
01:18
over the last 150 years
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在穩定持續暖化的氣候下,
01:20
in a steadily warming climate.
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經營這塊西部地景的方式。
01:23
Much of the destruction that we are currently seeing
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我們目前看到的破壞,
其實大多數是本來可以避免的。
01:27
could actually have been avoided.
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01:30
I've spent my entire career studying these western landscapes,
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我的整個職涯都在 研究這些西部地景,
01:34
and the science is pretty clear:
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科學是非常明確的:
01:36
if we don't change a few of our fire-management habits,
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如果不改變我們 管理大火的一些習慣,
01:41
we're going to lose many more of our beloved forests.
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我們將會失去更多更多鍾愛的森林。
01:46
Some won't recover in our lifetime
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有些是在我們一生中, 甚至我們孩子的一生中,
01:49
or my kids' lifetime.
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都無法復元的。
01:51
It's time we confront some tough truths about wildfires,
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該是時候了,該來面對 關於野火的棘手真相了,
01:56
and come to understand that we need to learn to better live with them
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要了解,我們必須學習 和它們共處得更好一些,
02:01
and change how they come to our forests,
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並改變它們如何來到我們的森林、
02:04
our homes
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我們的家園、
02:07
and our communities.
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我們的社區。
02:09
So why is this happening?
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所以,為什麼會發生?
02:11
Well, that's what I want to talk to you about today.
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這就是今天我想和大家談的。
02:16
You see this forest?
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看到這座森林了嗎?
02:20
Isn't it beautiful?
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它很美,不是嗎?
02:29
Well, the forests that we see today
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我們現今看到的森林,
02:33
look nothing like the forests of 100 or 150 years ago.
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一點也不像 100 或 150 年前的森林。
02:39
Thankfully, panoramic photos were taken in the 1930s
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謝天謝地,1930 年代時,
自西部山頂瞭望所 拍攝了數千個全景照片,
02:43
from thousands of western mountaintop lookouts,
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02:46
and they show a fair approximation
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靠這些照片,我們可以大略呈現出
02:49
of the forest that we inherited.
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我們所繼承的森林的樣貌。
02:52
The best word to describe these forests of old is "patchy."
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要形容這些老森林, 最好的詞就是「拼湊成的」。
02:57
The historical forest landscape was this constantly evolving patchwork
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歷史的森林地景, 是不斷演化的拼湊之作,
03:01
of open and closed canopy forests of all ages,
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由各種年齡,稀疏與鬱閉的 冠層森林拼湊而成,
03:05
and there was so much evidence of fire.
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有好多大火燒過的痕跡。
03:09
And most fires were pretty small by today's standards.
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用現今的標準來看, 大部份的火災規模都算很小。
03:14
And it's important to understand that this landscape was open,
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重要的是要了解這是個稀疏的地景,
03:18
with meadows and open canopy forests,
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有草地,也有稀疏冠層森林;
03:20
and it was the grasses of the meadows
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是草地上的草,
03:22
and in the grassy understories of the open forest
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以及稀疏森林中長滿草的林下層,
03:26
that many of the wildfires were carried.
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被許多野火燒了過去。
03:31
There were other forces at work, too, shaping this historical patchwork:
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還有其他的力量 形成這個歷史上的拼湊物,
03:35
for example, topography, whether a place faces north or south
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比如:地形學,地形朝南或朝北,
03:39
or it's on a ridge top or in a valley bottom;
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是在山脊上或是在谷底;
03:42
elevation, how far up the mountain it is;
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海拔高度,在山上多高的地方;
03:45
and weather, whether a place gets a lot of snow and rain,
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是否常常下雪或是下雨,
03:49
sunlight and warmth.
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是否有陽光且溫暖。
03:52
These things all worked together
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所有這些元素加在一起,
03:55
to shape the way the forest grew.
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造成森林成長的方式。
03:57
And the way the forest grew shaped the way fire behaved
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而森林成長的方式,
就會形成大火在地景上的行為方式。
04:03
on the landscape.
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04:05
There was crosstalk between the patterns and the processes.
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在模式和過程之間互相干擾影響。
04:10
You can see the new dry forest.
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如你所見,左側是新的乾燥森林。
04:12
Trees were open grown and fairly far apart.
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樹木開放成長,且間距算是遠的。
04:15
Fires were frequent here, and when they occurred,
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大火常常在這裡發生,
發生時都不會太嚴重,
04:18
they weren't that severe,
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04:19
while further up the mountain,
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再往山上一點,
04:21
in the moist and the cold forests,
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中間是潮濕且寒冷的森林,
04:23
trees were more densely grown and fires were less frequent,
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樹木的密度比較高, 比較不常發生大火,
04:26
but when they occurred, they were quite a bit more severe.
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但一旦發生大火, 通常會比較嚴重一些。
04:30
These different forest types, the environments that they grew in
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不同類型的森林、它們的生長環境,
04:33
and fire severity -- they all worked together
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以及大火的猛烈程度, 通通作用在一起,
04:36
to shape this historical patchwork.
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形成了這個歷史的拼湊之作。
04:40
And there was so much power
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在這個拼湊之作當中,
04:43
in this patchwork.
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有著非常大的力量。
04:45
It provided a natural mechanism
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它提供了一個自然機制,
04:48
to resist the spread of future fires across the landscape.
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來抵抗未來的大火, 不讓它們在地景上擴散。
04:53
Once a patch of forest burned,
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一旦森林其中一塊被燒掉,
04:55
it helped to prevent the flow of fire across the landscape.
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它能協助防止大火延燒至地景各處。
04:59
A way to think about it is,
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可以把它看待成,
05:00
the burned patches helped the rest of the forest
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森林中被燒毀的那些部份,
能協助維持剩下的森林仍然是森林。
05:05
to be forest.
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05:08
Let's add humans to the mix.
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讓我們混合考量人類的因素。
05:11
For 10,000 years, Native Americans lived on this landscape,
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美國原住民在這地景上住了一萬年,
05:14
and they intentionally burned it -- a lot.
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他們常常會刻意放火,
05:19
They used fire to burn meadows and to thin certain forests
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用火燒草原,讓某些森林變得稀疏,
05:23
so they could grow more food.
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來種更多的食物。
05:25
They used fire to increase graze
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他們用火來增加牧草的量,
05:28
for the deer and the elk and the bison that they hunted.
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供獵獲的鹿、麋和野牛食用。
05:32
And most importantly, they figured out
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最重要的是
他們了解如果在春天和秋天放火,
05:34
if they burned in the spring and the fall,
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05:37
they could avoid the out-of-control fires of summer.
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就能避免夏天失控的大火。
05:41
European settlement -- it occurred much later, in the mid-1800s,
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很久之後,歐洲人 於十九世紀中期開始殖民,
05:46
and by the 1880s, livestock grazing was in high gear.
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1880 年代到達家畜放牧的高點。
05:50
I mean, if you think about it, the cattle and the sheep ate the grasses
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我的意思是,試想牛和羊要吃草,
05:54
which had been the conveyer belt for the historical fires,
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這些草地曾是史上火災的輸送帶,
05:58
and this prevented once-frequent fires from thinning out trees
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使得以前頻繁的大火
不再能夠稀疏樹木、燒光枯木。
06:02
and burning up dead wood.
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06:04
Later came roads and railroads, and they acted as potent firebreaks,
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然後出現了道路和鐵路, 它們成了非常有效的防火道,
06:09
interrupting further the flow of fire across this landscape.
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進一步阻斷大火延燒至地景各處。
06:13
And then something happened which caused a sudden pivot
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接下來發生的事使社會突然轉變。
06:17
in our society.
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06:19
In 1910, we had a huge wildfire.
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1910 年,有一場大野火,
06:23
It was the size of the state of Connecticut.
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大小和康乃迪克州一樣大。
06:27
We called it "the Big Burn."
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我們稱之為「大火燒(Big Burn)」。
06:29
It stretched from eastern Washington to western Montana,
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它的範圍從華盛頓州的東邊 一路延伸到蒙大拿州的西邊,
06:33
and it burned, in a few days, three million acres,
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幾天之內就燒毀了三百萬英畝的地,
06:37
devoured several towns, and it killed 87 people.
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吞滅了數個小鎮,
造成 87 人死亡,
06:42
Most of them were firefighters.
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大部份是消防員。
06:45
Because of the Big Burn, wildfire became public enemy number one,
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這次的大火燒使得野火 成了全民的頭號公敵,
06:49
and this would shape the way that we would think about wildfire
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塑造我們社會在接下來百年間
06:52
in our society
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06:53
for the next hundred years.
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對於野火的看法。
06:56
Thereafter, the Forest Service, just five years young at the time,
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其後,當時成立才五年的林務局
07:00
was tasked with the responsibility of putting out all wildfires
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被賦予重任,
要消滅公地上所有的野火,
07:05
on 193 million acres of public lands,
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多達 193 百萬英畝的面積。
07:09
and they took this responsibility
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他們非常認真地看待這項責任,
07:11
very seriously.
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07:12
They developed this unequaled ability to put fires out,
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發展出無與倫比的滅火能力,
07:16
and they put out 95 to 98 percent
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每年 95% 至 98% 的全美國大火
07:20
of all fires every single year in the US.
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被他們撲滅掉。
07:25
And from this point on, it was now fire suppression
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從此之後,
撲滅火災取代了野火,
07:29
and not wildfires
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07:30
that would become a prime shaper of our forests.
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成為我們森林成形的主要因素。
07:35
After World War II, timber harvesting got going in the west,
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二次世界大戰後,
西部開始伐木,
07:39
and the logging removed the large and the old trees.
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砍伐原木造成大樹和老樹消失。
07:42
These were survivors of centuries of wildfires.
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它們原是百年來野火下的倖存者。
07:47
And the forest filled in.
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森林接著填補上來,
07:49
Thin-barked, fire-sensitive small trees filled in the gaps,
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對火敏感的薄皮小樹木補滿了空隙,
07:54
and our forests became dense, with trees so layered and close together
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我們的森林變成高密度,
樹木近近疊在一起,會彼此碰觸;
08:00
that they were touching each other.
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08:03
So fires were unintentionally blocked by roads and railroads,
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道路和鐵路無意間阻斷火的蔓延;
08:07
the cattle and sheep ate the grass,
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牛和羊吃草;
08:09
then along comes fire suppression and logging, removing the big trees,
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接著而來的人為滅火、 伐木和砍掉大樹,
你們可知道發生了什麼事?
08:14
and you know what happened?
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08:15
All these factors worked together
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所有這些因素一起作用,
08:17
to allow the forest to fill in,
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森林填補了間隙,
08:20
creating what I call the current epidemic of trees.
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造成我稱為「目前樹木氾濫的疫情」。
08:25
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:28
Go figure.
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去想想吧。
08:29
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:30
More trees than the landscape can support.
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樹木的數量遠超過 地景能夠支持的量。
08:35
So when you compare what forests looked like 100 years ago and today,
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因此,比較百年前和現今的森林,
08:40
the change is actually remarkable.
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改變其實很驚人。
08:42
Notice how the patchwork has filled in.
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注意看拼湊之作是怎麼被填補的。
08:45
Dry south slopes --
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原本乾燥的南面山坡
08:46
they're now covered with trees.
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現在被樹木覆蓋滿了。
08:49
A patchwork that was once sculptured by mostly small
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曾經主要由中小型的火災 所塑成的拼湊之作
08:52
and sort of medium-sized fires
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08:54
has filled in.
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已經被填補滿了。
08:56
Do you see the blanket of trees?
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看到樹木的覆蓋層了嗎?
08:58
After just 150 years,
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僅僅經過 150 年,
09:00
we have a dense carpet of forest.
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已經有了一片高密度的森林。
09:03
But there's more.
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還不只如此。
09:05
Because trees are growing so close together,
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因為樹木生長的距離非常近,
09:08
and because tree species, tree sizes and ages
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因為長在大片區域中的樹木,
09:11
are so similar across large areas,
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種類、尺寸、年齡都太相似,
09:15
fires not only move easily from acre to acre,
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火勢不但很容易從 一英畝延燒到下一英畝,
09:18
but now, so do diseases and insect outbreaks,
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發生的疾病和昆蟲疫情 也一樣容易傳播,
09:23
which are killing or reducing the vitality
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因此造成現在的森林
09:27
of really large sections of forest now.
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大片區域地死亡或衰弱。
09:30
And after a century without fire,
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一整個世紀沒有火災之後,
09:33
dead branches and downed trees on the forest floor,
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在森林地面上的枯枝和倒樹
09:36
they're at powder-keg levels.
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處在一觸即發的層級。
09:39
What's more, our summers are getting hotter
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此外,夏天越來越熱,
09:42
and they're getting drier
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越來越乾燥,
09:44
and they're getting windier.
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風也越來越大 。
09:47
And the fire season is now 40 to 80 days longer each year.
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如今每年的火季長了 40~80 天。
09:53
Because of this, climatologists are predicting
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因此,氣候學家預測,
09:55
that the area burned since 2000
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自 2000 年起燒掉區域的面積,
09:58
will double or triple
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在接下來三十年間會 變為兩倍或三倍。
10:01
in the next three decades.
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10:05
And we're building houses in the middle of this.
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而我們在這其中蓋房子。
10:08
Two recently published studies tell us
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兩份近期發佈的研究告訴我們,
10:10
that more than 60 percent of all new housing starts are being built
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超過 60% 的新住房
被建築在這種可燃且危險的地方。
10:15
in this flammable and dangerous mess.
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10:19
So when we do get a fire,
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所以一旦發生火災,
10:21
large areas can literally go up in smoke.
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會有大片的面積化為灰燼。
10:28
How do you feel now
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現在你們對於我一開始
10:31
about the forest image
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讓各位看的那張森林圖片
10:34
that I first showed you?
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感覺如何?
10:35
It scares the heck out of me.
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它把我嚇壞了。
10:39
So what do we do?
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我們應該怎麼做?
10:42
We need to restore the power of the patchwork.
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我們得要恢復拼湊之作的力量。
10:45
We need to put the right kind of fire
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我們得要把「對」的那種火
10:48
back into the system again.
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再次放回到系統當中。
10:50
It's how we can resize the severity of many of our future fires.
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這種方式能讓我們改變 許多未來火災的嚴重程度。
10:57
And the silver lining is that we have tools
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讓人感到欣慰的是
我們有工具,
10:59
and we have know-how to do this.
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也有該怎麼做的實際知識。
11:02
Let's look at some of the tools.
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咱們來看看其中一些工具。
11:04
We can use prescribed burning to intentionally thin out trees
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我們可以用計畫性火燒(控制燒除)
來刻意讓樹木變稀疏,
11:09
and burn up dead fuels.
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並燒盡可燃物。
11:11
We do this to systematically reduce them and keep them reduced.
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這麼做可以系統性地減少 並保持它們於少量。
11:16
And what is that going to do?
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那會有什麼結果?
11:18
It's going to create already-burned patches on the landscape
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那會在地景上創造出 已經燒光的區塊,
11:21
that will resist the flow of future fires.
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能夠防止未來大火的竄燒。
11:24
We can combine mechanical thinning with some of these treatments
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我們可以把機械式的稀疏做法 和這類處理方式結合,
11:27
where it's appropriate to do so,
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在適當的情況下這麼做,
11:29
and capture some commercial value
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並獲得一些商業價值,
11:31
and perhaps underwrite some of these treatments,
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也許還能承保這類處理方式,
11:34
especially around urban areas.
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特別是在都市地區。
11:36
And the best news of all is that prescribed burning produces
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最好的消息是計畫性火燒所產生的煙
11:40
so much less smoke than wildfires do.
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遠遠少於野火產生的煙。
11:43
It's not even close.
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差距很大。
11:45
But there's a hitch:
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但有個問題:
11:46
prescribed burning smoke is currently regulated under air quality rules
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依目前空氣品質規定的規範,
計畫性火燒的煙是可避免的妨礙行為。
11:51
as an avoidable nuisance.
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11:54
But wildfire smoke?
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但野火的煙呢?
11:56
It simply gets a pass.
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它沒被規範。
12:00
Makes sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
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合理嗎?(笑聲)
12:02
So you know what happens?
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所以會發生什麼事?
12:04
We do far too little prescribed burning,
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我們計畫性的火燒做得太少了,
12:07
and we continually eat smoke in the summers
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因而使我們在夏天 持續吸入來自超級大火的煙。
12:11
from megafires.
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12:12
We all need to work together to get this changed.
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我們得要同心協力來改變這一點。
12:16
And finally, there's managed wildfires.
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最後,還有管制野火。
12:18
Instead of putting all the fires out,
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不要撲滅所有的野火,
12:21
we need to put some of them back to work
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得要讓其中一些繼續燒下去,
12:24
thinning forests and reducing dead fuels.
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讓森林變稀疏,減少乾枯的可燃物。
12:28
We can herd them around the landscape
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我們可以在地景上「放牧」野火,
12:30
when it's appropriate to do so
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在適當的情況下這樣做,
12:32
to help restore the power of the patchwork.
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就能協助恢復拼湊之作的力量。
12:38
And as you've probably figured out by now,
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現在你們可能已經想通了,
12:42
this is actually a social problem.
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這其實是個社會問題。
12:44
It's got ecological and climate explanations,
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它的確有生態上和氣候上的解釋,
12:47
but it's a social problem, and it will take us humans to solve it.
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但它是個社會問題, 需要我們人類來解決。
12:53
Public support for these tools is poor.
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沒有多少大眾支持這些工具。
12:55
Prescribed burning and managed wildfires are not well-supported.
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計畫性火燒和管制野火 並沒有受到很好的支持。
12:59
We actually all simply want fires to magically go away
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事實上我們只想要大火 神奇地自己熄滅掉,
13:04
and take that pesky smoke with them, don't we?
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也一併帶走討厭的煙,對吧?
13:09
But there is no future without lots of fire and lots of smoke.
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但未來不可能沒有 多場火災和很多的煙。
13:14
That option is actually not on the table.
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其實桌面上並沒有這選項。
13:19
Until we, the owners of public lands, make it our high priority
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直到公共土地的所有者
將這問題列為優先,
13:24
to do something about the current situation,
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針對目前的情況行動,
13:28
we're going to experience continued losses to megafires.
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不然我們就會繼續經歷 超級大火造成的損失。
13:31
So it's up to us.
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所以,決定權在我們的手上。
13:33
We can spread this message to our lawmakers,
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我們可以把這訊息傳給立法者,
13:36
folks who can help us manage our fires
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給那些能夠協助我們 管制大火和森林的人。
13:40
and our forests.
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13:45
If we're unsuccessful,
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如果我們沒能成功,
13:49
where will you go to play
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當你最喜歡的地方被燒到焦黑時,
你要到哪裡去玩?
13:52
when your favorite places are burned black?
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13:57
Where will you go
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你要去哪裡
13:59
to breathe deep
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緩慢地深呼吸?
14:02
and slow?
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14:04
Thank you.
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謝謝。
14:05
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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