What the Fossil Fuel Industry Doesn't Want You To Know | Al Gore | TED

翻译人员: Vivian 'Yiwen' Zhao 校对人员: Sue Lu

The most important question these days

当下最重要的问题是：

is how can we speed up the solutions to the climate crisis?

我们如何才能加速解决气候危机？

I'm convinced we are going to solve the climate crisis.

我坚信我们能解决气候危机。

We've got this.

我们可以做到。

But the question remains, will we solve it in time?

但问题是，我们会及时解决吗?

Others have said we're kind of in a race.

有人说这是一场比赛。

I'll give you the the shortest definition of the problem.

让我将这个问题简短定义。

If I was going to give a one-slide slide show, it would be this slide.

如果浓缩成一张幻灯片，那会是这张。

That's the troposphere, the lowest part of the atmosphere.

这是大气层最低的部分——对流层。

And you already know why it's blue.

你已经知道它为什么是蓝色的了。

That's the oxygen that refracts the blue light.

那是氧气折射的蓝光。

And if you could drive a car at highway speed straight up in the air,

如果你驾车以高速直冲云霄，

you'd get to the top of that blue line in about five to seven minutes.

五到七分钟内便能到达蓝线之上，

You could walk it in an hour.

你一个小时就能走完它，

And all of the greenhouse gas pollution is below you.

所有温室气体污染都在你下方。

That's what we're using as an open sewer.

这就是被用作 开放式排污系统的地方，

That's the problem.

也是问题所在。

And it's causing a lot of second and third order consequences.

它正在引起许多二阶三阶的后果，

And we saw some of them in the northern-tier cities,

我们可以在北方城市看到，包括底特律。

including Detroit.

This one's from New York City, all the fires in Canada.

这是纽约的照片， 加拿大的火灾造成的烟雾。

And we have gotten used to the fact that the world suffers deep droughts

我们已经习惯了 地球遭受严重干旱这个事实，

and huge rain bombs and downpours and floods simultaneously.

同时伴随着倾盆大雨和洪水。

The really ingenious new gravity-measuring satellite

一个巧妙的衡量重力的新卫星，

has given us, for the first time,

首次给予了我们一个

the opportunity to see how this plays out worldwide.

在全球范围内 观察这些事件发生的机会。

We get these huge surpluses of water,

我们有大量过剩的水，

the rain bombs and the drought simultaneously.

并且暴雨与干旱同时发生。

And as you can see, the amplitude is increasing.

如图所示，振幅正在扩大。

And at both ends of our planet right now, we're seeing signs of distress.

并且在地球的两个顶端， 我们看到很多困境的痕迹。

Of course, you know, I've often said,

你知道的，我常说，

every night on the TV news is like a nature hike

每晚的新闻播报 就像启示录的自然灾害重现。

through the Book of Revelation.

And just today,

就在今天，

big flooding in Montpelier, Vermont,

佛蒙特州蒙彼利埃、日本南部地区 和印度均发生了严重的洪灾,

in southern Japan, in India.

And I haven't done a complete scan,

还不算当天全球所有的事件， 而每天都有自然灾害发生。

but every single day, it's like that.

But in Antarctica,

在南极洲，一些平常挺冷静的科学家，

some scientists who are normally pretty levelheaded

are getting a little bit freaked out, I would say, is a fair definition,

开始变得有些抓狂，

about the lowest level ever, at this point in the year, of sea ice.

因为海冰面降到了同期历史最低。

And at the other pole, in the North Atlantic,

而在另一个极点，北极，

we're seeing literally off-the-charts temperatures.

我们看到的温度超出正常范围。

So obviously, the crisis has to be addressed.

很明显，气候危机必须得解决。

And the good news is, as others have often said,

好消息是，如很多人常说的，

we are seeing tremendous progress.

我们正在看到巨大的进步，

And it starts with the Inflation Reduction Act here in the United States.

始于美国的通胀消减法案。

President Biden, the Congress, they have passed the best,

拜登总统和国会通过了

biggest climate legislation in all of history,

史上最好、最大的气候法案，

and it's said to be 369 billion.

据说是 3690 亿美元。

But the heavy lifting is done by tax credits,

但主要是通过税收抵免完成，

and most of them are open-ended.

并且大部分是无限期的。

And the early applications already show

早期的实施已经证明

it's going to be well over a trillion dollars,

它将远远超过 1 万亿美元，

maybe 1.2 trillion.

可能达到 1.2 万亿美元。

So this is really good news.

所以这真的是一个很好的消息。

And one month after that passed,

该法案通过一个月后，

Australia changed its government and started changing its laws.

澳大利亚更换了政府， 并开始更改法律。

And it's now a pro-climate nation.

它现在成为支持 解决气候危机的国家。

A month after that, Brazil did the same thing,

一个月后，巴西也跟进了，

new president, new policies protecting the Amazon.

选出了新的总统， 制定了保护亚马逊雨林的新政策。

And throughout, the European Union has resisted the efforts of Russia

而自始至终， 欧盟抵制住了俄罗斯的勒索，

to blackmail it into supporting

后者企图让欧盟支持 其对乌克兰残暴的入侵。

its sadistic and cruel invasion of Ukraine.

And there are other signs of success as well.

同时还有其他成功的迹象。

China's reached its renewables target five years ahead of time.

中国提早五年完成了气候目标。

It's still building a lot of coal, but only 50 percent capacity utilization.

它仍在生产很多的碳， 但产能利用率只有 50 %。

So there is lots of good news.

所以还是有很多好消息的。

But still, in spite of this progress,

但即便有了这些进步，

the emissions are still going up.

排放量仍然在增加。

And the crisis is still getting worse

而气候危机的恶化速度，

faster than we are deploying the solutions.

比我们部署的解决方案更快。

So maybe it's time to look at the obstacles

所以，是时候看看挡在眼前的阻碍了。

that are standing in our way.

I'm going to focus on two of them this afternoon.

今天下午，我会聚焦在两个阻碍上。

First of all, the unrelenting opposition from the fossil fuel industry.

首先，是化石燃料业冷酷不懈的反对。

A lot of people think they're on side and trying to help.

很多人以为他们 持支持态度并尝试帮助。

But let me tell you,

但事实是，

and the activists will all tell you this,

所有气候保护人士都会这么说，

every piece of legislation, whether it's at the municipal level,

每一条法律，无论是在市级、

the regional or provincial level,

地级、省级、国家级或是国际层面，

the national level or the international level,

they're in there with their lobbyists and with their fixers

都受到了化石燃料公司和其说客的阻碍，

and with their revolving-door colleagues

还有他们的“旋转门”同事，

doing everything they can to slow down progress.

为了减缓进度无所不用其极。

So speeding up progress means doing something about this.

所以若想加快进展， 必须先解决这些阻挠。

They have used fraud on a massive scale.

他们大规模地使用欺诈手段，

They’ve used falsehoods on an industrial scale.

作假规模之大遍及工业领域。

And they’ve used their legacy political and economic networks,

并且他们利用保留下来的 政治与经济网络，

lavishly funded,

通过丰厚的资助，

to capture the policy-making process in too many countries around the world.

掌控全球多国的政策制定进程。

And the [UN] Secretary General said

[联合国] 秘书长说，

the fossil fuel industry is the polluted heart of the climate crisis.

化石燃料业是气候危机的污染核心。

Now, that's not to say that the men and women who've worked in fossil fuel

这并不是说，我们不应该感谢

for the last century and a half are not due our gratitude.

那些在过去一个半世纪里 从事化石燃料工作的人们。

They are, and they didn't cause this.

他们值得我们的感谢， 危机不是他们造成的。

But for decades now, the companies have had the evidence.

但近几十年来， 化石燃料公司已掌握证据，

They know the truth, and they consciously decided to lie to publics

知道气候危机真相， 但依然决定对全球公众撒谎，

all around the world

in order to calm down the political momentum

目的是降低气候问题的政治热度， 这样他们便能赚更多的钱。

for doing something about it so they can make more money.

It's simple as that.

就是这么简单。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And now they have brazenly seized control of the COP process,

他们无耻地掌控了气候变化公约 缔约方会议（COP）进程，

especially this year's COP in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.

尤其是今年在阿联酋 迪拜展开的 COP。

And concern has been building about this for quite some time.

对此的担忧已经有一段时间。

I remember when there were so many fossil fuel delegates in Madrid,

我在马德里曾碰到 很多化石燃料业代表，

but by the time we got to Glasgow a year and a half ago,

但一年半前情况变得更糟， 我们到达格拉斯哥时，

the delegates from the fossil fuel companies

化石燃料业的代表团，

made up a larger group than the largest national delegation.

比最大的国家代表团还要大。

And why? Why?

这是为什么呢？

Because they're helping?

是因为他们在帮忙吗？

They're not helping, they're trying to stop progress.

不，他们在试图阻碍进展。

And last year in Egypt,

去年在埃及， 化石燃料业代表的人数超过

they had more delegates than the combined delegations

of the ten most affected countries by climate.

受气候影响最严重 十个国家代表的总和。

And now this year's host, which is a petro state,

而今年的东道国是一个石油国家，

has appointed the president of COP28,

它委任的 COP28 主席，

in spite of the fact that he has a blatant conflict of interest,

是一个公然有着利益冲突的人，

he's the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

身兼阿布扎比国家石油公司总裁，

owned by Abu Dhabi.

此公司为阿布扎比所拥有。

Their emissions are larger than those of ExxonMobil,

他们的排放量 不仅超过了埃克森美孚，

and they have no credible plan whatsoever to reduce them.

也没有任何可行的减排方案。

So this is the person in charge of the COP.

所以 COP 便是由这样的人主管。

He's a nice guy.

他是个好人，

He's a smart guy.

也是个聪明人。

But a conflict of interest is a conflict of interest.

但是利益冲突就是利益冲突。

And a matter of fact,

事实上，

they have a plan now to have a new increase in their emissions.

他们有个增加排放量的计划。

Their plan is to increase the production of both oil and gas

计划是到 2030 年， 把石油和天然气产量增加 50%。

by as much as 50 percent by 2030.

Which is the same time frame

在同一时间段内，

when the world is trying to reduce emissions,

全球正尝试把排放量减少 50%。

by 50 percent by 2030.

And the same person has been put in charge of both of those efforts.

这两件相悖的工作 现在由同一个人负责。

Direct conflict of interest.

赤裸裸的利益冲突。

I think it's time to say,

我想是时候说：

wait a minute, do you take us for fools?

等一下，你们把我们当傻子吗？

Do you think you can just completely remove the disguise and we won't notice?

觉得可以完全卸下伪装 而不被我们察觉吗？

The fossil fuel industry has captured this process and is slowing it down.

化石燃料业控制了减排进程， 并在拖延它的进展，

And we need to do something about it.

我们必须采取应对措施。

Now, they plan to increase their emissions --

现在，他们计划增加排放量 --

(Applause)

(掌声)

Getting all hot and bothered here.

瞧这燥热的环境。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The head of the International Energy Agency was talking

国际能源署负责人说，几家石油公司

about several oil companies

who have publicly pledged to increase their oil and gas

公开承诺要增加石油与天然气产量，

and simultaneously pledged to comply with the Paris Agreement.

同时还承诺会遵守巴黎协定。

Do you take us for fools?

你们把我们当傻子吗？

You cannot do both of those things simultaneously.

你们不可能同时信守这两个承诺。

And if you think we believe you when you say that,

如果你们觉得 我们会相信你们的说辞，

we beg to differ.

我们可不敢苟同。

Last year at the COP,

在去年的 COP 大会上，

the fossil fuel petro states vetoed

化石燃料产油国家否决了

any mention of phasing down fossil fuels.

一切有关逐步减少化石燃料的提议。

They say, oh, that's not the problem.

他们说，哦，问题不在这。

One of the secretary of state equivalent in Saudi Arabia

沙特阿拉伯的一位国务卿说，

said, we don't see this as a discussion about fossil fuels.

我们不认为这是关于化石燃料的讨论。

Let me tell you,

让我来告诉你吧，

the climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis.

气候危机就是一场化石燃料危机。

The solutions are going to come from a discussion

解决方案将取决于

and collaboration about phasing out fossil fuels.

淘汰化石燃料的讨论和合作。

And there's only so much longer they can hold this up

化石燃料业不可能支撑那么久，

and tie us down and keep us from doing the right thing.

一直束缚和阻碍我们做正确的事。

Now the director general of this year's COP,

今年 COP 大会的总干事

working under Sultan Al Jaber, he worked for ADNOC also,

在阿联酋工业技术部长苏尔坦手下工作， 他也曾在阿布扎比国家石油公司工作过，

he was seconded for several years to ExxonMobil.

也曾被借调到 埃克森美孚公司工作了几年。

He said, no, that’s all changed. This year, they’ve changed.

他说，不，今年他们改变了。

The fossil fuel companies are really engaging us.

化石燃料公司在积极参与减排。

They have changed.

他们改变了。

Yes, they have changed.

对，他们是变了。

They've changed for the worse this year.

今年他们变得更糟。

You don't believe me?

你不相信？

Look at this, BP.

看看这个，英国石油公司（BP）。

They said, "We're going to net zero, there's no turning back."

他们说：“我们要实现净零， 没有回头路。”

A few months ago this year, they turned back

但就在几个月前，他们回头了，

and they decided to roll back their investments.

并决定收回他们的投资。

ExxonMobil.

埃克森美孚，

Oh, my God.

哦，我的天啊。

This is minor compared to their industrial-scale lying, you know.

跟他们的工业规模欺诈相比， 我前面说的算不上什么。

But they've had all the TV ads on, particularly in the US,

他们所有的电视广告， 特别是在美国投放的，

about revolutionizing biofuels.

都是关于生物燃料的改革。

"You wouldn't believe what algae can do."

“你想象不到藻类可以干什么。”

Well, for 14 years they ran this program.

这个广告已经播放 14 年了。

And they spent 50 percent as much on the ads about the program

他们这项广告花费的资金，

as they did on actually trying to come up with new biofuels.

是开发新生物燃料资金的 50%。

And then a couple of months ago, they said, "Oh, we've changed our mind.

然后，两个月前， 他们说，“哦，我们改变想法了。

We're just going to cancel that program."

我们将取消该广告计划。”

The industry as a whole

整个化石燃料业

has not been acting in good faith.

都没有秉着诚意行事。

Shell reversed its commitment to increase their investments in fossil fuels.

壳牌公司撤销了 增加再生能源的投资承诺。

They announced just a couple of months ago they're going to plow that money

就在几个月前，他们宣布将把这笔钱

into expanding oil and gas production instead.

用于拓展石油与天然气产能。

So did they miss the memo?

他们不了解当前的事态吗？

Well, no, they say they've discovered a way out.

不是的，他们声称找到了突破口。

They're telling us now that the problem is not fossil fuels.

他们说，问题不是化石燃料，

It's the emissions from fossil fuels.

而是化石燃料的排放，

And so all we have to do is to capture the emissions from the fossil fuels.

我们要做的是捕获化石燃料排放。

Now, I'm all for research and development

我完全支持研发捕获排放废气，

into trying to capture emissions

or sucking it out of the air if they want to do that.

或将废气从空气中吸走的方法， 如果他们真想这么做的话。

But let's don't pretend it's for real.

但别自欺欺人了。

Maybe someday it will be.

可能未来真的会这么做。

Maybe someday it will be.

可能未来会真的这么做！

(Applause)

（掌声）

This is the head of ExxonMobil saying, "Not oil and gas,

埃克森美孚的负责人说， “不是石油与天然气的错，是排放。”

it's the emissions."

And Abu Dhabi,

还有阿布扎比石油公司，

they have said they've already decreased their emissions

他们说他们已经降低

from producing oil and gas, 99.2 percent.

生产石油与天然气的 排放量达 99.2%。

The point two makes it sound even more authoritative.

0.2%似乎使其显得更具权威性。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Is that feasible?

这是可行的吗？

Have they really done that?

他们真的做到了？

Is their carbon capture technology that’s that good?

他们的碳捕获技术真的这么好？

Well, Climate TRACE can measure.

我们来看看 气候追踪联盟的测量结果。

Now, let's just look.

There's their CCS capability.

这是他们的碳捕获与封存（CCS）能力。

Oh, but they've got a great improvement in the work.

哇，他们有了很大的进步。

Seven years from now,

未来七年里， 他们的容量将增加 500%。

they're going to have a 500 percent increase in their capacity.

But here are the emissions from oil and gas production alone.

这里显示的仅仅是 生产石油和天然气的排放量。

And here are the emissions of greenhouse gases

而这是阿联酋阿布扎比的 温室气体排放量。

from Abu Dhabi, from the UAE.

Now, the pathetic little sliver there

现在把那可怜的一丁点

compared to the reality, again,

跟现实做对比，

do they think we don't see what they're doing,

我重申，他们觉得我们是瞎子吗？

don't understand what they're doing?

我们看不透他们在干什么吗？

A lot of people maybe just want to look away from it.

很多人可能只想视而不见。

Pretty ironic here in this country.

在这个国家，这真的很讽刺。

You know, the coal-burning utilities

美国环保署（EPA）今年 给燃煤电厂下达了新的任务，

have been given a new mandate this year by the EPA.

You've got to clean up your act.

必须改正其行为。

Now, you can keep on burning coal

你可以继续烧煤，

and you can keep on producing electricity with it

也可以继续用它发电，

if you use carbon capture and sequestration.

但必须使用碳捕获与封存技术 来解决排放问题。

Well, they scream bloody murder.

他们就大喊大叫，像在喊冤似的。

Another story about it this morning,

今早，又有一篇关于此事的报道，

but they say, that technology?

他们嚷嚷说，用那个技术？

That's not feasible.

那是不可行的，

It's not technically feasible, not economically feasible.

技术上与经济上都是不可行的。

So they need to get their story straight, in my opinion.

所以我认为他们需要把事情说清楚。

So the technology of CCS

碳捕获与封存技术

has been around for a long time, 50 years,

已经存在了 50 年。

and we get used to technologies automatically getting cheaper and better,

我们也习惯了 技术会自动变得更便宜更好，

you know, with the computer chips and the cell phones and all that.

诸如电脑芯片，手机等等。

Well, University of Oxford did a whole study,

牛津大学进行了一个完整的调研，

and some come down in cost fast, some slow.

发现技术成本的下降有快有慢。

A few are in a category called non-improving technologies.

有少数被归类为“无改进技术”，

And that’s where carbon capture and storage is.

碳捕获与封存技术便属此类。

50 years, not any price decline.

50 年了，技术成本没有任何下降。

Well, could we get a breakthrough in spite of that?

尽管如此，我们能否取得突破？

Maybe.

有可能。

We're throwing a lot of money at it.

我们投入了大量的资金。

We had to do that to get the compromise that passed the IRA,

为了美国通胀消减法案的通过， 这是必须要做的妥协。

and we ought to continue the research.

而且我们应该让这项研究继续。

But again, let's don't pretend that it's here.

还是那句话， 不要假装碳捕获技术可行，

It's not here now.

至少现在还不行。

And to use it as an excuse, and now they've got another one.

为了用它当借口，他们又找到另一途径，

Now it's called direct air capture.

这次叫做“直接空气捕获”技术。

These are giant vacuum cleaners that use an awful lot of energy.

它们使用象巨大吸尘器的设备， 要耗费很多能源。

It's technically feasible, but it's extremely expensive.

技术上是可行的，但极其昂贵。

And it also uses so much energy.

而且需要使用很多能量。

But it is tremendously useful.

但它是非常有用的。

You know what it's used for?

你知道它的用处是什么吗？

The CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the US

美国最大石油公司之一的总裁

had told us what it's useful for.

跟我们讲了它的用处，

It's useful to give them an excuse for not ever stopping oil.

那便是给了他们一个 永不停产石油的借口。

A few months later, she said,

几个月后，她说，

"This gives us, this new technology, a license to continue operating."

“这项新技术给了我们 一个持续运作的许可”。

Some people call that a moral hazard.

有些人管这个叫道德风险。

For them, the moral hazard is not a bug,

对他们来说，道德风险不是个错误,

it's a feature, as the old saying goes.

正如老话所说，它是一个特性。

And so let's just look, this is state-of-the-art.

接下来让我们看看， 这是最先进的机器。

It looks pretty impressive, doesn't it?

很震撼吧？

This is the backside of one of these machines.

这是其中一台机器的背面。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I had the same thought.

我们想到一起去了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now this, they're improving this.

那么他们在优化这个机器，

(Applause)

（掌声）

They're improving this.

进行改进。

And the new model, seven years from now,

七年后的新款，

each of these machines is going to be able

每台机器都可以捕获 等值 27 秒的年排放量。

to capture 27 seconds' worth of annual emissions.

Woohoo.

哇塞。

That gives them a license to continue producing more

这机器是他们继续生产 更多石油与天然气的许可。

and more oil and gas.

Or so they claim.

至少他们是这么声称的。

Well, they also say, the experts,

那么专家也说，

that in order to be economically feasible,

如果想要它在经济上可行，

it has to come in at 100 dollars a ton or less.

它得降到每吨 100 美元或更低。

The leading company says that 27 years from now,

龙头企业说 27 年后，

it may come down below three times that amount.

它可能会降到 300 美元。

So again, if this sounds kind of incredible,

所以，如果感觉这不可置信，

it is not credible.

它就是不可信的，

But they're using it in order to gaslight us, literally.

但他们运用它来操纵我们。

But I didn't mean it as a pun, but that's what they're using it to do.

我不是有意在玩文字游戏， 这确实是他们的所作所为。

And we can't fall for it.

我们不能上他们的当。

The biggest obstacle to direct air capture is probably physics.

直接空气捕获技术 最大的阻碍是物理学。

And what I mean by that, they've explained this to me.

他们向我解释过这个原理，

CO2 makes up 0.035 percent of the air

二氧化碳占空气总量的 0.035%，

so we're going to vacuum the other 99.96 percent

因此我们要抽取另外 99.96%， 来去除那一丁点二氧化碳。

to get that little bit out.

Come on, really?

真的吗？

Come on.

得了吧。

And it doesn't even pretend to catch the methane or the soot

它甚至都不能捕捉到甲烷、烟尘、

or the mercury or the particulate pollution

汞或微粒污染，

that kills 9 million people a year around the world.

这些污染每年造成全世界九百万人死亡。

And that's why the climate justice advocates

因此，气候保护人士 对这种无稽之谈非常不满。

are so down on this kind of nonsense.

They say, here's one of them says, look, we need to fight climate change,

他们说，我们需要应对气候问题，

but don't do it by pretending to do it and continue dumping all this pollution

但不要一边假装应对， 一边持续将这些污染

on the front line communities that are downwind from the smokestacks.

排放到烟囱下风口的前线社区里。

And that's why they have not ever really liked the carbon capture.

这就是为什么气候保护人士 始终不喜欢碳捕获技术。

And what about all the energy that's needed?

而且，这项技术需要的能量怎么办？

Is it going to come from more fossil fuels?

是否用更多的化石燃料为其供能？

Well, in case of Occidental, yes.

是的，目前在西方是这样的。

But could it come from more solar and wind?

太阳和风可否为其供能呢？

Well, if so, why not use the solar and wind

可以？那何不用太阳能和风能 来替换化石燃料厂呢？

to replace the fossil fuel-burning plants

that are putting all that stuff up there in the first place?

污染本就来源于化石燃料工厂，

Doesn't that make sense?

替换掉它不是很符合逻辑吗？

Am I missing something?

难道是我漏掉了什么？

(Applause)

（掌声）

Anyway, this is the environmental justice advocate who is making the point

总之，这就是气候保护人士的论点：

that you can't do it without protecting those who are victimized

必须保护位于烟囱下风口，

downwind from the smokestacks, downstream from the pollution.

即污染下游的受害者们。

Now, some of the companies, of course,

当然了，有些公司会说，

you say we're going to offset our emissions.

他们要抵消其排放量。

And again, offsets can play a role, a small role,

抵消排放有些用，但是很小，

five to 10 percent according to the Science Based Targets initiative,

“科学碳目标倡议”认为 只有 5%至 10%。

the most authoritative source on all of this.

倡议团队由联合国全球盟约 共同組成，在这方面最具权威性。

But, you know, Chevron just had its offsets analyzed.

雪佛龙公司刚刚 对其碳抵消额度进行了分析，

It turned out 93 percent of them were worthless and junk.

结果发现其中 93% 都是毫无价值的垃圾，

And that's too often the case.

情况往往就是这样。

It's not a get-out-of-jail-free card.

这不是免罪金牌。

And their offsets were only aimed at 10 percent of their emissions

并且从一开始，他们的碳抵消策略 就只针对其 10%的排放量。

in the first place.

Eighty percent of the fossil fuel companies

80%的化石燃料公司 完全无视“范围三排放“核算体系，

just completely ignore the Scope Three emissions,

which is the main part of their pollution problem.

这是他们污染问题的核心。

So they say that they have increased by 400 percent

他们说已增加 400%的投资，

the share of their spending on energy

用到绿色科技和碳捕获技术。

that goes to green technologies and carbon capture.

And yes, they have, they've increased it all the way up to four percent.

是的，他们投了，增加了 4%，

And it's not even as good as that,

甚至都没有这么高，

because if you look at the windfall profits they've been getting,

要是计入他们获得的暴利的话。

what have they done with that?

这些暴利用在哪里了？

Well, they gave it back to the shareholders

他们分发给了股东，

through dividends and stock buybacks.

用的分红和股票回购的方式。

So the amount of money

所以实际上，

the fossil fuel industry is investing in renewables

化石燃料公司投入到再生能源 和碳捕获技术的资金只有 1%。

and carbon capture is one percent.

Does that mean they are sincere actors, working in good faith?

他们的行为是真诚且出于善意的吗？

I don't think so.

我不相信。

A lot of people still think so.

但很多人仍然相信他们，

They think they're on our side.

觉得他们和我们立场一致。

I don't think it's in their nature to be on our side.

但我认为他们的特性与我们相悖，

I think they're driven by incentives that push them in the opposite direction.

利益的驱使将他们推向了相反方向。

But in any case,

总之，

they produce no solutions whatsoever that are scalable

他们提不出任何可扩展 或可行的解决方案，

or remotely feasible.

And again, they have actively fought

还积极反对

against the solutions that others have been trying to bring.

别人提供的任何解决方案。

I've seen it personally.

这是我亲眼目睹的。

Many of you have seen it personally.

观众席里很多人也目睹过。

And it's happening all over the world.

全球化石燃料公司都是如此，

No progress.

这个行业毫无进展，

They've even gone backwards.

甚至还倒退了。

Now, if a company says, look,

那么，如果一个公司说，

we shouldn't be excluded from the COP process,

我们不应被排除在 COP 进程之外，

we know a lot about energy.

毕竟我们是能源的专家。

Here's a simple test.

那么这里有个简单测试。

Do they actually have,

这家公司是否真正致力于净零排放，

does the company have real net-zero commitments,

a genuine phase-down plan,

采用真正的逐步削减计划？

yes or no?

是或否？

Are they committed to full disclosure?

他们是否承诺全面公开？

Yes or no?

是或否？

Are they going to spend windfall profits on the transition?

他们愿意将自己的暴利用于转型吗？

Yes or no?

是或否？

Are they committed to transparency?

他们是否承诺透明公开？

Will they end their anti-climate lobbying?

他们会停止反气候保护的游说吗？

Will they end their greenwashing?

他们会停止环保漂绿吗？

Will they be in favor of reforming the COP process

他们是否赞成改革 COP 进程，

so that the petro states don't have an absolute veto

从而使石油国家失去对全球讨论 或采取行动的任何事项的绝对否决权？

on anything the world wants to discuss or act on?

We've got to change that.

我们必须改变这种局面。

In order to move faster,

为了增快步伐， 我们必须增强全球社会的能力，

we have got to empower the global community

in a way that frees them from the hammerlock

让他们摆脱化石燃料公司的束缚。

that the fossil fuel companies have on them today.

And any company that doesn't pass this test,

任何通过不了这个测试的公司，

I'm telling you,

应该被禁止参加 COP 进程。

ought to be prohibited from taking part in the COP process.

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼和掌声）

What about the company that's led by the president of this year's COP,

那么今年 COP 大会主席 领导的公司呢？

the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company?

即阿布扎比国家石油公司。

Well, it's rated one of the least responsible

它被评为最不负责的 石油和天然气公司之一，

of all the oil and gas companies.

It no longer even releases information

不再发布任何减排方案， 没有转型计划，

on any of its emissions, has no transition plan,

no short or mid-term target scores,

也没有任何短期或中期目标评分。

a pathetic three on 100-scale on their transition plans.

100 分的转型测评， 他们只得了可怜的 3 分。

And the nation's plan is rated highly insufficient.

而阿联酋国家计划也被评为极不充分。

They just put out a new one, it's still insufficient.

他们刚发布了新计划，依然不充分。

So that's the first obstacle.

所以这是第一道阻碍。

Second one's a lot clearer.

第二道阻碍更清晰。

This one has to be removed in order to get to the faster solutions.

我们必须移除第一道阻碍， 才能得到更快的解决方案。

But in order to remove it,

但若想移除它，

we've got to do something about the second obstacle,

我们就得在第二道阻碍上下功夫：

and that is the financial system,

那便是金融系统，

the global allocation of capital and the subsidies for fossil fuels.

即全球资本分配 和对化石燃料业的补贴。

Governments last year around the world subsidized with taxpayer money

去年，全球各国政府使用纳税人的钱

more than a trillion dollars, subsidizing fossil fuels.

补贴了化石燃料业超过一万亿美元,

That's five times larger than the amount in 2020.

是 2020 年补贴额的 5 倍。

Are we going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

我们的方向是对还是错？

Well, there are a lot of good things I'll show you,

好吧，我会给你看很多好消息的，

but this has to stop.

但首先这必须被制止。

And the 60 largest global banks

全球 60 家最大的银行，

have put 5.5 trillion extra dollars

将额外的 5.5 万亿美金

into the fossil fuel companies since the Paris agreement.

投给了化石燃料公司， 那是在巴黎协定之后。

And preposterously, 49 of them have also signed net-zero pledges.

荒谬的是，其中 49 家银行 也签订了净零排放承诺。

So we ...

所以。。。

Global allocation of capital.

关于全球资本分配，

The borrowing of private capital is ruled out

许多发展中国家无法募集私有资本，

for many developing countries.

Nigeria has to pay an interest rate seven times higher

比如尼日利亚要支付的利率，

than Europe or the US.

会是欧盟或美国的 7 倍。

Political risk, corruption risk, currency risk, off-take risk,

政治风险、腐败风险、 货币风险、承购风险、

it's rule of law risk.

法治风险。

That's why the World Bank and the other multilateral development banks

这就是为什么 世界银行与其它多边开发银行

are supposed to take those top layers of risk off.

应该承担这些最高层次的风险。

And that's why we need reform in the World Bank.

这也是世界银行需要改革的原因。

Thank goodness so many fought to get a new head of the World Bank,

感谢这么多人努力争取 让世界银行换了新行长，

and I'm very excited about his progress.

新行长的进展让我非常激动。

Now, when these obstacles are removed, we can really accelerate progress.

因此，当所有的阻碍都被移除后， 我们便可以真正的加快进展。

They'll still be problems, of course,

当然了，依然会存在一些问题，

but we have everything we need

但是我们具备了一切的条件，

and proven deployment models to reduce emissions 50 percent

经过验证的部署模型， 可以在未来七年减少 50% 排放量。

in the next seven years.

But we will still need better grids,

但我们还需要更好的电网，

more resilient grids, more solar and wind,

更具韧性的电网、 更多的太阳能与风能、

much more regenerative agriculture.

以及更多的再生农业。

That's a way to really pull carbon out of the air.

这是真正将碳从空气里排出的方案。

More electric vehicles and charging stations

更多的电动汽车、充电站、

and more energy storage.

与更多的能源储存。

I'll show you that just before we quit here.

我会在结束前展示这些。

And more green hydrogen, so more electrolyzers to produce it.

还需要更多的绿色氢， 其生产则需要更多的电解槽。

And these are all surmountable obstacles.

这些都是可以克服的障碍。

Already, renewables account for 90 percent

目前，可再生能源在全球范围内，

of all the new electricity generation being installed each year worldwide.

占了每年新增发电量的 90%。

Ninety-three percent solar and wind in India last year.

去年，印度的太阳能 和风能占到 93%。

And of course, the solar's taking off and so is wind

太阳能和风能在迅速发展，

and so are the electric vehicles and battery storage.

电动车与电池储存也是如此。

It has grown so dramatically.

它们飞速增长，

You’ve got to rescale the graph to look at the trillion-dollar industry emerging.

必须重新调整图表的比例， 才能看到正在崛起的万亿美元产业。

Now, just seven years ago, there was one gigafactory.

七年前，只有一家超级工厂。

I learned from one of you at a session a couple of hours ago

在几个小时前的一场演讲里， 我从观众处了解到一组数据，

and had my staff research it,

我的工作人员也核实过了，

there are now 195 gigafactories and another 300 in the pipeline.

现在有 195 家超级工厂， 还有 300 家正在筹备中。

So will we succeed?

那么我们会成功吗？

Some people fight with a vulnerability to despair.

有些人在奋斗中容易陷入绝望。

You know, the old cliche, “denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.”

老话说得好：“不在绝望中爆发，

Despair ain’t just a tire in the trunk.

就在绝望中灭亡。”

There are people that are vulnerable.

有些人有着脆弱的心境。

But let me close with what I regard as amazingly good news.

让我用一个惊人地好消息来结束吧。

What if we could stop the increase in temperatures?

假如我们可以阻止温度上升呢？

Well, if you look at the temperature increases,

观察气温的上升情况，你会发现：

if we get to true net-zero,

如果我们达到真正的净零排放，

astonishingly, global temperatures will stop going up

全球气温将不再上升,

with a lag time of as little as three to five years.

滞后时间仅仅是三到五年。

They used to think that positive feedback loops would keep that process going.

他们曾认为正向反馈循环 会让温度持续上升，

No, it will not.

不会的。

The temperatures will stop going up.

温度会停止上升。

The ice will continue melting and some other things will continue,

冰会持续融化， 其它诸如此类的事会持续发生，

but we can stop the increase of temperatures.

但是我们可以停止温度上升。

Even better, if we stay at true net zero, in as little as 30 years,

更好的是，如果我们真的能保持 三十年的净零排放，

half of all the human-caused CO2 will come out of the atmosphere

人类产生的二氧化碳里， 有一半将会从大气层里排出，

into the upper ocean and the trees and vegetation.

进入上层海洋、树木和植被中。

So young people are demanding that we do the right thing.

年轻人正在要求我们做正确的事情。

Do not be vulnerable to despair.

不要轻易陷入绝望，

We are going to do this.

我们能够完成这项任务。

And if you doubt that we, as human beings have the will to act,

如果你质疑我们人类 是否有行动的意愿，

please always remember

请永远记住，

that the will to act is itself a renewable resource.

行动的意愿本身就是可再生资源。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼和掌声）

Thank you.

谢谢。