What a Living Whale Is Worth -- and Why the Economy Should Protect Nature | Ralph Chami | TED

55,638 views ・ 2022-12-09

TED


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翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: Grace Man
00:04
In 2017, I confided in a dear friend of mine
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2017 年, 我向一位挚友透露了
00:09
that my lifelong wish was to see the blue whales.
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我此生的愿望就是 想亲眼看到蓝鲸。
00:14
Before I knew it, I found myself with a bunch of researchers
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我还没反应过来, 就和一群研究人员
00:18
in the Sea of Cortez studying the blue whales.
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一起踏上了科尔特斯海 (Sea of Cortez)的蓝鲸研究之旅。
00:22
We used to be in a boat 25 foot long.
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我们一起乘上了一艘 25 英尺长的船。
00:27
And next to us ...
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我们身边的是……
00:30
is this majestic creature
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这个庞然大物,
00:35
feeding gracefully next to us.
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就在我们旁边安详地进食。
00:39
Now you have to understand, at that point in time,
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你得知道一点,在那个时刻,
00:41
I knew nothing about blue whales, or whales in general.
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我对蓝鲸,或者说鲸鱼 这整个物种都一窍不通。
00:44
I'm just a financial economist.
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我只是个金融经济学家。
00:47
But I learned something from them, which was really incredible.
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但是我从它们的身上 学到了一些很神奇的东西。
00:50
It was already known in the science that whales capture so much carbon
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科学上已经表明鲸鱼 会在它们的身体里或间接地
00:58
on their body and indirectly.
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捕获大量碳。
01:03
And that's, of course, very important for us
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这当然对我们来说非常重要,
01:06
because we are all facing the climate calamity
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因为我们都面临着气候灾难,
01:09
and we are all talking about how to grab carbon dioxide
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我们都在讨论如何从大气中
01:13
from the atmosphere.
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捕获二氧化碳。
01:14
Well, it turns out that the whales
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结果表明鲸鱼
01:17
grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere --
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会从大气中抓取大量二氧化碳,
01:20
by the way, they eat and they poop.
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通过进食和排泄这一过程。
01:24
Yeah. It's all about food.
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没错。围绕着食物。
01:28
So how does the whale system work?
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鲸鱼系统是什么样的?
01:31
Well, it starts in the oceans.
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从海洋开始。
01:34
There's these microscopic organisms called phytoplankton.
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海洋中有一些微生物, 称为“浮游植物”。
01:38
Those phytoplankton do something really incredible.
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这些浮游植物的作用非常神奇。
01:42
They grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,
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它们从大气中吸收二氧化碳,
01:46
and they return oxygen to all of us.
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再以氧气的形式返还给我们。
01:50
Now how much carbon dioxide do they grab from the atmosphere?
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那它们会从大气中 吸收多少二氧化碳呢?
01:55
About 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
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从大气中吸收 大约 370 亿吨二氧化碳。
02:00
Truly the lungs of the planet are in the ocean.
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地球之肺其实在海里。
02:04
Now, if you want to visualize what 37 gigatons mean,
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如果你想对 370 亿吨有点概念,
02:08
that's the equivalent of the carbon
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这相当于四个亚马逊雨林 每年吸收的碳量。
02:11
that is grabbed by four Amazon forests per year.
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02:15
That's how much is being sucked in by these photosynthetic organisms.
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这就是这些光合生物吸收的量。
02:20
Now larger creatures called krill
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磷虾这种稍大一点的生物
02:24
love to eat phytoplankton directly or indirectly.
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会直接或间接地吃掉浮游生物。
02:29
And the whales love to feed on the krill.
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然后鲸鱼会吃掉磷虾。
02:33
They feed so much on the krill that they grow bigger and bigger,
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它们吃掉了大量的磷虾, 越长越大,
02:36
and they store carbon in their body.
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碳就存储在了它们的身体里。
02:39
How much carbon do they store in their body?
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它们的身体里有多少碳呢?
02:43
Roughly about seven to nine tons of carbon on their body.
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它们的身体里大约有 7 到 9 吨碳。
02:49
If you want to convert that to carbon dioxide,
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如果将其转换为二氧化碳,
02:52
that's about 33 tons of carbon dioxide being kept out of the atmosphere
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约等于从大气中 抽取了 33 吨二氧化碳,
02:57
on the body of a single whale.
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存在一条鲸鱼体内。
03:00
If you want to visualize that,
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如果要类比一下,
03:02
that’s the work of 1,500 trees
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那就是 1500 棵树的劳动成果
03:05
on the body of a single whale.
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装在了一条鲸鱼的体内。
03:07
OK?
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好吗?
03:09
But those guys, because they eat a lot,
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但是这些家伙,由于它们吃得多,
03:12
what do you do next?
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那会怎么样?
03:13
You poop a lot.
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拉的也多。
03:15
And their poop turns out to be incredibly important
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它们的粪便惊人地重要,
03:18
because it fertilizes the phyto.
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因为滋养了浮游生物。
03:21
So you have this wonderful cycle.
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于是就有了一个美妙的循环。
03:24
OK? The whale feeds on the krill, the krill feeds on the phyto,
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鲸鱼吃磷虾,磷虾吃浮游生物,
03:28
and the phyto eats the poop of the whales to get more active.
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浮游生物吃鲸鱼的粪便增加活力。
03:32
And when the phyto gets more active,
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浮游生物越活跃,
03:34
it grabs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
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就会从大气吸收更多的二氧化碳。
03:39
So just imagine: the whales, they capture carbon on their body.
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想象一下: 鲸鱼用身体捕获碳。
03:45
Unfortunately, at some point they die,
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不幸的是,某一天它们死了,
03:47
and they're so heavy they sink to the bottom of the ocean.
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但是它们太重了, 只能沉到海底。
03:51
And anything below a thousand meters is sequestered almost forever.
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海底一千米以下的万物 几乎被永久封存了。
03:55
And through their poop they also fertilize phyto,
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它们的粪便依旧 在滋养着浮游生物,
03:58
making phyto even more active,
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让浮游生物越来越活跃,
04:00
grabbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
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从大气中捕获更多的二氧化碳。
04:04
So in a sense, the whales are incredible allies
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某种意义上,鲸鱼是我们
04:07
in the fight against climate change.
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对抗气候变化的重要盟友。
04:10
Now that's good news, right? Yeah.
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这是个好消息,对吧?是的。
04:13
Except that whales are dying.
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除了一点,鲸鱼濒危了。
04:16
They're dying from ship strikes.
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由于与船只相撞,它们濒危了。
04:18
They're dying from pollution, they're dying from entanglements.
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由于污染、被渔网缠住, 它们濒危了。
04:24
In fact, they're dying because our current economic system
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实际上,它们濒危的原因是 我们当前的经济系统
04:29
puts a zero value on a living whale.
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完全不在意活鲸鱼的价值。
04:33
But chop a whale, sell it for its meat, it acquires a value.
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但是切开鲸鱼,出售鲸肉, 会产生价值。
04:40
The value of a living whale is zero, zero dollars,
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活鲸鱼的价值是零,零美元,
04:44
zero in any currency.
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任何货币单位都是零。
04:47
I'm a financial economist.
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我是一名金融经济学家。
04:50
And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.
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我听到了科学家们 为鲸鱼的遭遇叹息。
04:54
And I wanted to help. I didn't know how to help.
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我想帮忙,但是不知道怎么帮。
04:56
And I thought, wait a minute.
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然后我想,等一下。
04:58
Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.
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也许我可以把 你们的信息传达给世界。
05:04
Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us
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也许我可以把这些 价值和鲸鱼为我们做的事
05:09
in a language that we can all understand.
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翻译成我们都能理解的语言。
05:12
Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.
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不幸的是,这是金钱的语言。
05:16
So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale
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所以我带领着团队 打算评估鲸鱼所做之事的价值,
05:21
but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things.
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但是只评估那么一件事, 因为鲸鱼会做很多很多事。
05:25
But I just wanted to value one thing,
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但是我只想评估一件事,
05:27
which is what is the value
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即鲸鱼的固碳行为 对我们来说值多少钱?
05:28
of their carbon sequestration service to us?
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05:32
Now how would you do something like that? After all, the whale is a living system.
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怎么评估呢? 鲸鱼毕竟是一个活物。
05:36
The whale captures carbon on her body,
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鲸鱼把碳存在她的身体里,
05:39
and she gives birth to baby whales
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然后生了小鲸鱼,
05:41
who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.
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小鲸鱼长大了 也会用身体捕获碳。
05:44
And they give birth to whales and so forth,
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然后不断繁衍生息,
05:47
and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.
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还会间接地通过滋养浮游生物的 这一过程固碳。
05:50
So how would you do something like this?
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怎么估值呢?
05:52
Well, to do that,
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要估值的话,
05:54
I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.
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我得发挥我的长项, 也就是估价。
05:59
I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.
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我看了看说,等一下。
06:01
This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.
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它们就像是会分红的股票。
06:06
Except those dividends are live dividends. They give birth to more dividends.
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但是分红是动态的, 还会越滚越多。
06:11
So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime
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如果我追踪一条鲸鱼的一生,
06:15
and keep track of all these dividends
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记录下所有分红,直至终点,
06:18
into the future,
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06:20
and then multiply that by the price of carbon,
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再乘以碳的价格,
06:24
and discount that all the way to the present,
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再将所有未来的分红 折现至当下,
06:28
I can figure out what is the present value,
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就可以得出目前的价值,
06:31
discounted present value,
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一条鲸鱼一生创造的价值
06:32
of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.
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折现到现在的价值。
06:36
Would you like to know how much?
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你们想知道是多少吗?
06:37
(Applause)
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(掌声)
06:40
Would you like to know how much?
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你们想知道是多少吗?
06:41
Audience: Yes!
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观众:想!
06:43
RC: At least three million dollars.
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拉尔夫·沙米(Ralph Chami): 至少三百万美元。
06:46
At least.
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还只是“至少”。
06:48
Because I'm leaving so much out of this.
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因为我舍去了很多。
06:51
But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.
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但是我只是想分享 我在那艘船上听到的好消息。
06:54
I didn't know what to do. I was trying to help them out.
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我不知道该做些什么。 我只是想帮帮它们。
06:58
But there's more good news. Would you like to hear it?
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但是还有更多的好消息。 你们想听吗?
07:01
Audience: Yes!
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观众:想!
07:03
RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa,
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沙米:它们在陆地上的远亲, 非洲刚果盆地森林里的大象,
07:07
in the Congo Basin,
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07:09
they do the same thing.
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也在做同样的事。
07:11
Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop,
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它们走路、进食、排泄的方式,
07:16
they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests
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也在增加树木中、 森林里的碳捕获量,
07:21
between seven and 14 percent.
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增加了 7% 至 14%。
07:24
Just imagine, just by frolicking around,
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想象一下, 它们只是在四处玩耍,
07:27
they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.
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就能帮我们从大气中捕获二氧化碳, 解决这个问题。
07:34
So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.
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所以我在想,也许我们 也能为它们的行为估个价。
07:40
Right? Same thing.
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对吧?一个道理。
07:42
But again, use the same model of valuation.
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但是使用同样的估值模型。
07:46
You follow the same methodology,
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使用同样的方法,
07:49
and you discount all of that to the present.
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折现得出此时此刻的价值。
07:51
And you ask yourself, what is the value
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你问问自己, 一头大象的固碳行为
07:53
of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?
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值多少钱?
07:58
Would you like to know how much?
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你们想知道值多少吗?
08:00
Audience: Yes!
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观众:想!
08:01
RC: Here we go.
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沙米:来吧。
08:02
2.6 million dollars.
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260 万美元。
08:07
Would you like to hear some more good news?
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还想听点别的好消息吗?
08:09
Audience: Yes!
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观众:想!
08:10
RC: Aside from forests --
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沙米:除了森林……
08:12
because we are land people, we just think of forests --
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由于我们生活在陆地上, 我们只会想到森林……
08:14
go a little bit into the water.
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我们再拓展一下,到水里去。
08:17
Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands, wetlands --
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海草、盐沼红树林、 海藻森林、泥炭地、湿地,
08:22
these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide
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它们都是以超出想象的水平 吸收二氧化碳的生物系统,
08:26
beyond your imagination,
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08:28
and they keep it forever in their roots
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它们把碳永久地封存在根系中,
08:31
as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.
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只要你去关爱它们, 不去干涉它们。
08:35
So ...
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所以……
08:36
If you think these numbers are big,
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如果你觉得数额不菲,
08:39
wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.
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那你得听听我接下来要说的话。
08:43
In seagrass alone,
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单看海草,
08:44
seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.
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仅仅是海草的固碳效果。
08:47
How much do you think is the value of the global --
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你觉得全球的……
08:51
If you look at globally the seagrass
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放眼全球的海草,
08:53
and you value their carbon sequestration service,
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评估一下它们固碳的价值,
08:56
how much you think it's worth?
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你觉得它们的贡献值多少钱?
08:58
You ready?
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准备好了吗?
09:00
2.3 trillion dollars.
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2.3 万亿美元。
09:03
That's the size of the German stock market.
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相当于德国股市的规模。
09:10
Now.
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那么,
09:11
What does this tell us?
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这意味着什么呢?
09:13
This tells us that a living and thriving nature
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这意味着生机勃勃的大自然
09:18
is not only valuable intrinsically,
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不仅对它自身价值连城,
09:21
it's also financially valuable to us.
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对我们来说也价值连城。
09:27
Question is, what do you do with this?
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问题是,你该做些什么呢?
09:29
So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.
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科学为我们展现了地球之美。
09:33
We can value it in dollars and cents.
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我们可以用金钱来衡量。
09:34
Question is, what are you going to do with it?
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问题是,然后你该干什么呢?
09:37
Well, guess what? We can build a whole economy
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你猜怎么着?我们可以
围绕这生机勃勃的大自然 建立一个完整的经济体系,
09:39
around a living and thriving nature,
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09:42
not an extractive view of nature,
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不是向自然索取,
09:44
but a regenerative view of nature.
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而是帮助自然焕发生机。
09:47
And that economy --
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这个经济体系……
09:48
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:50
Thank you.
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谢谢。
09:51
That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity
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这个经济体系将为我们, 为地球万物,无论大小,
09:58
for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.
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带来可持续的共同繁荣。
10:03
It does not have to be I win, you lose.
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这不必是一场零和博弈。
10:06
It is a win-win.
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这该是双赢。
10:08
I'm going to show you how.
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我来告诉你们怎么做。
10:11
From there we can build --
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我们可以建设一个……
10:13
In order to build that economy, we need three things.
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要建立这个经济体系, 我们需要三样东西。
10:16
We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.
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我们需要科学,指的是会计, 严谨的会计工作。
10:20
What is it that you have? How much of it do you have?
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你有什么东西? 你持有多少?
10:24
Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say,
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然后第二步就是像我这样的 金融经济学家过来说道:
10:27
"What is the value of what you have?"
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“你持有的值多少钱?”
10:29
The reason we value it is just to basically translate it
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我们之所以要估价 只是为了把它翻译成
10:31
into the language that policymakers can understand
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政策制定者可以理解的语言,
10:34
so they can make decisions.
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然后他们才能做出决定。
10:36
That's all. It's a translation.
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就是如此。只是“翻译”而已。
10:39
But then the third pillar is very important,
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第三个关键部分也非常重要,
10:41
which is the legal framing.
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即法律体系。
10:44
The legal framing is very important
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法律体系非常重要,
10:47
because we need to protect the rights of nature,
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因为我们需要保护大自然的权利,
10:49
a living and thriving nature.
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我们生机勃勃的大自然。
10:52
Three things. Once you do these three things,
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三样东西。三样都有了,
10:55
you can create markets around nature.
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你就可以创造许多 围绕大自然的市场。
10:58
When I say markets around nature,
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我指的“围绕大自然的市场”,
11:00
not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.
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不是向自然界索取, 而是帮助大自然焕发新生。
11:05
And I'm going to show you how.
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我要告诉你如何做到这点。
11:06
I'm going to show you how.
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我要告诉你如何做到这点。
11:10
Gabon has 57,000 elephants.
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加蓬有 57000 头大象。
11:15
If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.
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如果不加以干涉, 可以繁衍至 195000 头大象。
11:20
Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.
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加蓬可以出售大象的碳补偿价值。
11:24
Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees --
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想象一下,由于这些大象 会从树中吸收碳,
11:28
they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.
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加蓬就可以出售这个过程的价值。
11:32
To whom?
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卖给谁呢?
11:34
To us because we're all enamored
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卖给我们,因为我们都执着于
11:36
with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.
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达成零碳、负碳排放、碳中和。
11:40
And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.
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我们的钱能让大象 得以世世代代繁衍生息。
11:46
OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?
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好吗?那加蓬能赚多少钱呢?
11:51
One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely,
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加蓬每年能赚到 10 亿美元, 需要做的只是让大象自由活动,
11:57
not be tied to anything,
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不对大象加以任何限制,
11:59
just by leaving them alone.
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不作任何干涉。
12:01
Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop,
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而这些大象只要进食、排泄、
12:04
just being, having babies, doing whatever they do,
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生活、繁殖、为所欲为,
12:07
they help carbon sequestration in the forests.
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就能完成森林里的固碳过程。
12:11
A forest without animals is dead.
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没有动物的森林是死气沉沉的。
12:13
It's not about flora. It's about flora and fauna.
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不只是植物, 而是植物与动物。
12:17
It's about nature itself.
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是大自然自身。
12:19
That's what the message is.
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我要传达的信息就是如此。
12:21
Who would buy these carbon offsets?
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谁会购买这些碳补偿价值呢?
12:25
All these companies and countries
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所有承诺达成
12:26
that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.
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零碳、负碳排放、碳中和的 公司、国家都会购买。
12:31
They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.
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它们会购买这些碳补偿价值, 或者说碳信用。
12:35
The money would flow in from these ecosystem services --
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资金会流入这些 生态系统运作的过程,
12:40
be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh --
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给予鲸鱼、大象、 红树林、海草、盐沼……
12:45
and the money goes in by contract,
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由合同规范资金的流入,
12:47
using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity --
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利用区块链技术 永久地照顾大自然,
12:52
very important --
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这点非常重要,
12:54
and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.
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也能永久地照顾 大自然的“管理员”。
12:57
And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.
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大自然的管理员是 当地的土著人。
13:02
They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.
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他们才是真正进行保护工作的人, 不是你,也不是我。
13:06
(Applause)
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(掌声)
13:12
Once we do that --
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我们一旦这么做……
13:16
Notice what it is.
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看看效果吧。
13:17
It's a win for nature.
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对大自然有利。
13:20
It's a win for the economy.
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对经济有利。
13:22
The government will make money
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政府能赚到钱,
13:24
because the government is going to get all that revenue.
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因为这些收入都归了政府。
13:26
It will change its fiscal stance.
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这会改变财政态势。
13:28
It will diversify its economy. It will grow in a sustainable way.
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让经济更加多元, 更可持续地增长。
13:34
It's a win for the environment.
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对环境有利。
13:36
It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.
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对所有饱受我们折磨的生物有利。
13:42
It’s a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.
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对我们美丽的地球有利。
13:46
As Carl Sagan once said,
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卡尔·萨根(Carl Sagan)曾说:
13:49
“The only Earth we’ll ever know.
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“我们唯一的地球,
13:52
The only home we'll ever know."
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也是我们唯一的家园。”
13:55
It's a win for us.
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对我们自己有利。
13:58
We are taking this work
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我们把这项在非洲进行的工作
14:00
in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.
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带去了利比里亚、喀麦隆、 肯尼亚、南非。
14:05
We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.
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我们把这项工作带去了美洲、 智利、阿根廷。
14:09
We're doing it in the US and in the UK.
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我们也在美国、 英国进行这项工作。
14:15
Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.
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想象一下,一切始于 我想看到蓝鲸的那个愿望。
14:21
Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision
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我未曾想到这会孕育出
14:24
of how we ought to live for tomorrow.
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对未来生存方式的畅想。
14:28
Thank you.
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谢谢。
14:29
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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