What a Living Whale Is Worth -- and Why the Economy Should Protect Nature | Ralph Chami | TED

譯者: Lily Cheng 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

In 2017, I confided in a dear friend of mine

2017 年，我向一位朋友傾訴

that my lifelong wish was to see the blue whales.

見到藍鯨是我畢生的願望

Before I knew it, I found myself with a bunch of researchers

不久後我就跟著一群研究員

in the Sea of Cortez studying the blue whales.

到了科爾蒂斯海研究藍鯨

We used to be in a boat 25 foot long.

我們坐著一艘 25 英尺長的船

And next to us ...

在身旁的

is this majestic creature

是這嵬峨的生物

feeding gracefully next to us.

在一邊優雅地用餐

Now you have to understand, at that point in time,

你們要知道，其實在當時

I knew nothing about blue whales, or whales in general.

我對於藍鯨或是所有的鯨魚 一無所知

I'm just a financial economist.

我只是一位金融經濟學者

But I learned something from them, which was really incredible.

但鯨魚為我上了不可思議的一課

It was already known in the science that whales capture so much carbon

科學上已知鯨魚會直接或間接地

on their body and indirectly.

吸收二氧化碳

And that's, of course, very important for us

這對我們非常重要

because we are all facing the climate calamity

因為我們正面對著氣候災變

and we are all talking about how to grab carbon dioxide

不停吵著該如何減少大氣層的二氧化碳

from the atmosphere.

Well, it turns out that the whales

而鯨魚--

grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere --

從大氣層中吸收了這麼多的二氧化碳

by the way, they eat and they poop.

只透過吃飯和便便

Yeah. It's all about food.

沒錯就是靠吃

So how does the whale system work?

鯨魚的系統如何運作？

Well, it starts in the oceans.

從海洋開始

There's these microscopic organisms called phytoplankton.

一種叫作浮游植物的微生物

Those phytoplankton do something really incredible.

浮游植物是大自然的奇蹟

They grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,

它們從大氣中吸收大量的二氧化碳

and they return oxygen to all of us.

用氧氣還給大家

Now how much carbon dioxide do they grab from the atmosphere?

它們吸收了多少二氧化碳呢？

About 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

大約 370 億噸大氣中的二氧化碳

Truly the lungs of the planet are in the ocean.

儼然是海洋中的地球之肺

Now, if you want to visualize what 37 gigatons mean,

想要知道 370 億噸具體有多少

that's the equivalent of the carbon

這相當於

that is grabbed by four Amazon forests per year.

四座亞馬遜森林一年吸收的二氧化碳

That's how much is being sucked in by these photosynthetic organisms.

全被這些光合生物吸收了

Now larger creatures called krill

另一種大一點的生物叫磷蝦

love to eat phytoplankton directly or indirectly.

喜歡吃浮游植物

And the whales love to feed on the krill.

而鯨魚喜歡吃磷蝦

They feed so much on the krill that they grow bigger and bigger,

鯨魚吃的超多，越長越大

and they store carbon in their body.

並把碳儲存在身體裡

How much carbon do they store in their body?

鯨魚究竟儲存了多少碳呢？

Roughly about seven to nine tons of carbon on their body.

大概七到九噸的碳

If you want to convert that to carbon dioxide,

換算成二氧化碳

that's about 33 tons of carbon dioxide being kept out of the atmosphere

就是 33 噸的二氧化碳離開了大氣

on the body of a single whale.

存在一隻鯨魚身上

If you want to visualize that,

具體來說

that’s the work of 1,500 trees

這是 1500 棵樹的工作量

on the body of a single whale.

由一隻鯨魚完成

OK?

明白嗎？

But those guys, because they eat a lot,

這些鯨魚吃得多

what do you do next?

然後呢？

You poop a lot.

也排泄得多

And their poop turns out to be incredibly important

牠們的便便其實超級重要

because it fertilizes the phyto.

是浮游植物的肥料

So you have this wonderful cycle.

這就是個完美循環

OK? The whale feeds on the krill, the krill feeds on the phyto,

鯨魚吃磷蝦，磷蝦吃浮游植物

and the phyto eats the poop of the whales to get more active.

浮游植物吸收鯨魚便便的養分

And when the phyto gets more active,

浮游植物蓬勃生長

it grabs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

就從大氣吸收更多二氧化碳

So just imagine: the whales, they capture carbon on their body.

想想看，鯨魚能在身體中儲存碳

Unfortunately, at some point they die,

而牠們總會死亡

and they're so heavy they sink to the bottom of the ocean.

因為重量，牠們的身體沉入海底

And anything below a thousand meters is sequestered almost forever.

到了海底超過一千公尺深處 就等於永遠封存了

And through their poop they also fertilize phyto,

鯨魚的便便給浮游植物施肥

making phyto even more active,

幫助浮游植物生長

grabbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

又從大氣吸收更多二氧化碳

So in a sense, the whales are incredible allies

換句話說，鯨魚是對抗氣候變遷

in the fight against climate change.

的最佳盟友

Now that's good news, right? Yeah.

這是好消息吧？

Except that whales are dying.

可惜鯨魚族群正在凋零中

They're dying from ship strikes.

牠們死於船隻撞擊

They're dying from pollution, they're dying from entanglements.

死於海洋污染，死於漁網纏繞

In fact, they're dying because our current economic system

牠們不斷死亡，因為我們的經濟系統

puts a zero value on a living whale.

對活鯨魚的價值估量為零

But chop a whale, sell it for its meat, it acquires a value.

殺死一隻鯨魚賣掉，反而有錢賺

The value of a living whale is zero, zero dollars,

活的鯨魚價格只有零

zero in any currency.

任何貨幣都是零

I'm a financial economist.

我是一位金融經濟學者

And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.

聽著科學家們哀嘆鯨魚的下場

And I wanted to help. I didn't know how to help.

我想幫忙，卻不知道怎麼幫

And I thought, wait a minute.

然後我突發奇想

Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.

或許我可以把消息傳給全世界

Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us

或許我能把鯨魚的價值和對人類的服務

in a language that we can all understand.

轉換成大家都懂的敘述

Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.

金錢的敘述

So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale

我的團隊開始評估鯨魚的服務工價

but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things.

牠們對人類的服務眾多

But I just wanted to value one thing,

我只想評估其中一種

which is what is the value

鯨魚的碳封存服務究竟價值幾何？

of their carbon sequestration service to us?

Now how would you do something like that? After all, the whale is a living system.

這要怎麼做呢？鯨魚畢竟是活的

The whale captures carbon on her body,

鯨魚用身體吸收碳

and she gives birth to baby whales

之後生下鯨魚寶寶

who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.

鯨魚寶寶長大繼續用身體吸收碳

And they give birth to whales and so forth,

之後新的鯨魚寶寶出生......

and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.

還有牠們間接替浮游植物施肥

So how would you do something like this?

這要怎麼計算呢？

Well, to do that,

為了計算

I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.

我得回到老本行，進行估價

I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.

我想著，等一下，

This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.

這情況就像支付股息的股票

Except those dividends are live dividends. They give birth to more dividends.

鯨魚就像活的股息，股息再生股息

So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime

如果我追蹤鯨魚的一生

and keep track of all these dividends

追蹤牠的每股股息

into the future,

推算到未來

and then multiply that by the price of carbon,

乘以碳價

and discount that all the way to the present,

再折算成現在的價值

I can figure out what is the present value,

就可以得出現值

discounted present value,

一頭鯨魚ㄧ生的收入

of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.

折算的現值

Would you like to know how much?

想知道多少嗎？

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Would you like to know how much?

想知道多少嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: At least three million dollars.

最少三百萬美金

At least.

最少

Because I'm leaving so much out of this.

沒有算的地方太多了

But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.

我想要傳播在那艘船上聽到的好消息

I didn't know what to do. I was trying to help them out.

我不知道能做什麼，我只是想幫忙

But there's more good news. Would you like to hear it?

還有更多好消息，你們想聽嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa,

鯨魚陸地上的親戚，非洲雨林的大象

in the Congo Basin,

住在剛果盆地

they do the same thing.

也提供一樣的服務

Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop,

大象透過走路、吃飯、排泄

they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests

使樹木中的碳封存增加

between seven and 14 percent.

百分之七～十四

Just imagine, just by frolicking around,

想像一下，只靠四處亂晃

they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.

大象就幫我們從大氣固定了二氧化碳

So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.

我就想，或許大象的服務也能估價

Right? Same thing.

是同一件事，對吧？

But again, use the same model of valuation.

使用相同的估價模板

You follow the same methodology,

相同的方法

and you discount all of that to the present.

同樣折算成現值

And you ask yourself, what is the value

然後問，一頭大象的碳封存服務 價值幾何？

of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?

Would you like to know how much?

想知道多少嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: Here we go.

聽好囉

2.6 million dollars.

兩百六十萬美金

Would you like to hear some more good news?

想知道更多好消息嗎？

Audience: Yes!

觀眾：想！

RC: Aside from forests --

除了森林

because we are land people, we just think of forests --

住在陸地上的我們常常只想到森林

go a little bit into the water.

來説説水裡吧

Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands, wetlands --

海草、紅樹林，海帶林、泥炭地、濕地

these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide

這些生態系統吸收的二氧化碳

beyond your imagination,

遠超我們想像

and they keep it forever in their roots

碳存在它們的根中

as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.

只要不去動它，好好照顧它 碳就不會釋放出來

So ...

再來

If you think these numbers are big,

你以為夠多了嗎

wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.

接下來的才是重頭戲

In seagrass alone,

僅僅是海草

seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.

海草的碳封存

How much do you think is the value of the global --

你們覺得價值有多少

If you look at globally the seagrass

全球的海草

and you value their carbon sequestration service,

評估它們的碳封存服務

how much you think it's worth?

究竟值多少？

You ready?

準備好了嗎

2.3 trillion dollars.

2.3 兆美元

That's the size of the German stock market.

相當于一整個德國股市

Now.

好

What does this tell us?

這告訴我們什麼？

This tells us that a living and thriving nature

生機勃勃的大自然

is not only valuable intrinsically,

除了本身存在的價值

it's also financially valuable to us.

同樣具備經濟價值

Question is, what do you do with this?

問題是，我們該如何做？

So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.

科學告訴我們地球有多棒

We can value it in dollars and cents.

可以用貨幣來計算它的價值

Question is, what are you going to do with it?

問題是，我們該如何做？

Well, guess what? We can build a whole economy

想想看，我們可以建立一套經濟系統

around a living and thriving nature,

以生機勃勃的大自然為基石

not an extractive view of nature,

大自然不再是我們獲取資源的挖掘場

but a regenerative view of nature.

而是可以再生的寶藏

And that economy --

這樣的經濟系統

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Thank you.

謝謝

That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity

這經濟系統將導向永續發展與共榮

for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.

所有生物皆能受惠

It does not have to be I win, you lose.

不再是損人利己

It is a win-win.

而是雙贏的局面

I'm going to show you how.

我來說明如何做

From there we can build --

建造這個經濟系統

In order to build that economy, we need three things.

需要用到三樣東西

We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.

科學、會計學、科學的會計學

What is it that you have? How much of it do you have?

你擁有什麼？你擁有多少？

Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say,

然後金融經濟學家，比如我， 接下去計算：

"What is the value of what you have?"

你擁有那部分的價值是多少？

The reason we value it is just to basically translate it

估價是為了把這個概念翻譯成一種

into the language that policymakers can understand

立法者懂得的語言

so they can make decisions.

他們以此下決定

That's all. It's a translation.

這就是一種翻譯

But then the third pillar is very important,

重要的是第三根支柱

which is the legal framing.

法律成型

The legal framing is very important

法律成型非常重要

because we need to protect the rights of nature,

因為我們必須保護大自然的權益

a living and thriving nature.

生機蓬勃的大自然

Three things. Once you do these three things,

只要完成這三件事

you can create markets around nature.

就能建造以大自然為基石的經濟系統

When I say markets around nature,

以大自然為基石

not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.

指的並不是獲取資源的挖掘場 而是可以再生的寶藏

And I'm going to show you how.

我來展示如何做

I'm going to show you how.

我來展示如何做

Gabon has 57,000 elephants.

加彭一共有 57,000 頭大象

If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.

不要人為干預，象群能增加到 195,000 頭

Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.

加彭可以出售大象們的碳補償

Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees --

想像一下，這些大象吸收樹木中的碳

they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.

加彭可以出售大象們的碳補償

To whom?

出售給誰？

To us because we're all enamored

給我們這些夙夜匪懈

with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

想要達成零碳、負碳、碳中和的人

And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.

這些錢可以用來保障大象們的永續生活

OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?

那麼加彭可以獲得多少收入呢？

One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely,

每年十億美元，讓大象們盡情玩耍

not be tied to anything,

而不是拘於一處

just by leaving them alone.

不要人為干預就行

Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop,

這些大象呢，牠們走路、排泄、

just being, having babies, doing whatever they do,

生寶寶、隨心所欲，只要牠們存在

they help carbon sequestration in the forests.

就能幫助森林中的碳封存

A forest without animals is dead.

沒有動物的森林是死的

It's not about flora. It's about flora and fauna.

不能只有植物，植物與動物相輔相成

It's about nature itself.

代表著大自然

That's what the message is.

這才是重點

Who would buy these carbon offsets?

誰會買這些碳補償？

All these companies and countries

許下諾言要達成零碳、負碳、碳中和的 公司與國家

that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.

They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.

他們會購買碳補償，或碳權

The money would flow in from these ecosystem services --

資金會流入生態服務

be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh --

不管是鯨魚、大象、紅樹林、海草、鹽沼

and the money goes in by contract,

資金依合約流入

using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity --

利用區塊鏈技術照顧生態永續經營

very important --

劃重點 --

and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.

照顧這些生態永續經營的管家們

And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.

生態的管家是當地人以及原住民

They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.

一直在保護生態的是他們，不是我們

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Once we do that --

只要我們能做到

Notice what it is.

留意到它

It's a win for nature.

大自然得到保護

It's a win for the economy.

經濟得到成長

The government will make money

政府賺到錢

because the government is going to get all that revenue.

因為這些將為政府帶來稅收

It will change its fiscal stance.

財政規劃因此改變

It will diversify its economy. It will grow in a sustainable way.

使經濟系統多樣化、永續成長

It's a win for the environment.

環境得到保護

It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.

在人類手中受苦受難的動物得到保護

It’s a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.

我們的美麗地球得到保護

As Carl Sagan once said,

如卡爾·薩根（Carl Sagan）所說：

“The only Earth we’ll ever know.

「我們所知的唯一地球，

The only home we'll ever know."

我們所知的唯一家園。」

It's a win for us.

人類得以延續

We are taking this work

我們的工作

in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.

從非洲的賴比利亞、卡麥隆、肯亞、南非

We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.

到美洲的智利、阿根廷

We're doing it in the US and in the UK.

到美國和英國

Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.

這一切的起點，我不過是想見見藍鯨

Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision

我也沒有料到，這趟旅程的成果

of how we ought to live for tomorrow.

是人類未來生活的願景

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）