The 55 Gigaton Challenge | TED Countdown

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer:

翻译人员: Gracia Chew 校对人员: Helen Chang

The air we breathe has changed.

我们所呼吸的空气变了。

The mix of gases is shifting,

随着二氧化碳等温室气体的增加，

with more and more greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide.

大气的成分正在改变。

And this shift is happening faster each year.

而这个变化正在逐年加快。

In fact, concentrations of CO2 have reached levels

实际上，自智人演化以来， 二氧化碳的浓度已达到

never before breathed by humans,

since Homo sapiens evolved.

人类有史以来从未呼吸过的水平。

In just a few hundred years,

在短短几百年的时间里，

eons of fossilized sunshine have been burned as coal, oil and gas.

数亿万年的化石以煤、石油 和天然气的形质被燃烧。

The exhaust has transformed the entire atmosphere and ocean.

废气的排放改变了整个大气层和海洋，

It’s like a pollution blanket,

造成铺天盖地的环境污染，

and the result we know as climate change.

引发了我们所知的气候变化。

So how much more of that fossilized sunshine can we burn

在地球的生态系统被愈加破坏之前

before further destabilizing the Earth’s systems?

我们到底还能燃烧多少化石？

Not much.

不多了。

Think of it as a carbon budget.

就把它想成是碳预算。

We are currently adding 55 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases

我们目前每年排放

550亿吨温室气体。

to the atmosphere every year.

This is the Gigaton Challenge.

这就是“千兆吨挑战”。

By some estimates, at that pace,

根据一些预测，在这种速度下，

we will have burned through the remaining budget by 2030.

我们截至2030年将耗尽剩余的预算。

So to give us some room to breathe,

因此，为了给我们呼吸的空间，

the world must reduce greenhouse gas pollution

全球必须在未来的十年内，

by more than seven percent each year,

每年减少高于7%的

every year of this decade ...

温室气体排放量…

starting now.

从现在开始。

There are a number of ways to do that.

我们可通过一些途径来实现其目标。

Let’s start by looking at the greenhouse gases themselves.

让我们从了解温室气体开始。

CO2 makes up nearly 75 percent of the pollution emitted each year.

二氧化碳每年占将近75%的废气排放量。

There’s also nitrous oxide,

一氧化二氮也是其中一种废气，

known as laughing gas,

它也被称为“笑气”，

but it's no laughing matter,

但这并不好笑，

seeping out of farm fields and elsewhere

因为它正从农场或其他地方泄露，

and making up six percent of the problem.

并占问题的6%。

And then there’s methane,

接下来是甲烷，

which you may also know of as natural gas.

这也是众所周知的“天然气”。

It’s 17 percent of the total.

它占总排放量的17%。

There are other greenhouse gases,

当然还有其他温室气体，

but these three make up the bulk of the climate challenge.

但这三个占了气候挑战的绝大部分。

All must be reduced --

所有废气排放都必须

and fast.

尽快减少。

Methane is better at trapping the Sun’s heat,

甲烷比较会捕捉太阳的热气，

which means cutting methane pollution is a necessary and fast-acting stimulus

因此减少甲烷污染 对整个碳排放预算来说

for our carbon budget.

是必要和速效的强心剂。

If methane emissions from agriculture

如果我们能在未来的

and the oil and gas industry can be eliminated

十年内消除来自农业 和石油与天然气产业的甲烷排放，

in this decade,

we might be able to stave off catastrophes

我们或许能避免诸多浩劫，

like the loss of the Arctic sea ice and glaciers all around the world.

例如北极海冰和全球冰川的融化。

CO2 has a longer life.

二氧化碳的寿命较长。

Once it is added to the atmosphere,

当它被排放到大气中时，

it can stay up there for hundreds of years,

它可以在那里待上几百年，

if not longer.

甚至更久。

CO2 emissions must be cut in half by 2030,

截至2030年，二氧化碳的 排放量必须减半，

and then reduced even further by 2040,

并且到了2040年进一步减少，

to put the world on a path

才能在2050年前

of adding no CO2 to the air by 2050.

实现全球净零碳排放。

And that means transforming the modern world as quickly as possible.

这意味着我们要尽快改变现代社会。

There are several ways to break down the sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

我们可通过几种方法来 解析温室气体排放的源头。

Here we’re using the public Climate Watch data.

在这里，我们使用的是 公共气候观测数据。

Start with energy.

从能源开始。

The majority of modern energy comes from fossil fuels,

现代能源大部分来自化石燃料，

which makes the energy sector 76 percent of the climate challenge,

因此能源市场构成了气候挑战的76%，

including the fuels used for transportation,

其中包括用在运输、

industrial processes

工业程序和农业生产的燃料。

and agricultural production.

The shift to clean energy must be accelerated

若我们想将全球暖化限制在

by an order of magnitude

1.5摄氏度以内，

if we want any chance to restrain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

我们转向清洁能源的步伐 就须加快一个数量级。

And we’ll need more ways to store this clean electricity,

而且我们需采用更多方式 来储存清洁能源，

whether that’s putting it in the chemical bonds of a battery

不管是将其放进电池的化学键里

or into a molecule of hydrogen.

还是氢气的分子里。

Batteries and clean hydrogen are also going to play a key role

电池和清洁氢气将在 交通领域的绿化中

in cleaning up transportation,

扮演重要的角色，

which accounts for 17 percent of climate-changing pollution,

而交通占了导致气候变化的污染的17%，

including the use of energy to move people and goods around:

这当中包括使用能源来运输人和物：

eight percent from cars;

8%来自汽车；

five percent from trucks and other heavy-duty vehicles;

5%来自卡车和其他重型车辆；

and four percent from shipping and aviation.

4%则来自航运和航空。

With abundant clean electricity,

有了大量的清洁能源后，

the world can win the race to electrify cars

世界就可成功将汽车电动化

and create cleaner alternative fuels for trucks,

和为卡车、轮船、乃至飞机创造

ships,

and even one day, airplanes.

更清洁的燃料。

Then there are our lifestyles

但若想战胜气候挑战，我们也得

and the materials that make them possible.

改变生活方式和所使用的物质。

That’s everything from the cement and steel that go into buildings

这包括用在建设方面的钢筋水泥

to the plastic fibers in fashion.

和时装里的塑料纤维。

All told, these materials account for six percent of our emissions --

这些材料占总排放量的6%，

on top of the energy emissions required to produce them.

当中不包括生产过程中的能源排放。

And we’ll need new and clean ways to make them or replace them.

而我们需找到新颖、清洁的方式 来制作或代替这些材料。

Farming and animal raising also have to change

农作和牧业也须改变

as agriculture accounts for 12 percent of greenhouse gas pollution.

因为农业占温室气体排放的12%。

That means everything from how and what people eat

改变农业意味着改变人们和牲畜

to how and what cows, chickens and pigs eat.

进食的方式和食用的食物。

It also means finding ways for farm fields to go from sources of greenhouse gas

改变农业也表示找到如何将农地 从排放温室气体的地方

to places where greenhouse gases get buried.

转为埋置温室气体的地方。

Agriculture is also the biggest direct impact people have

农业也是人类对动植物、 微生物和真菌等

on the plants, animals, microbes and fungi that share this planet with us.

地球原住民造成的最大、 最直接的影响。

To truly solve the climate challenge,

想真正解决气候问题，

the wild world will have to be protected and restored

我们就须保护和恢复大自然

to allow all of life’s myriad forms to flourish.

以让所有生物都能蓬勃生长。

A halt in cutting down forests,

停止森林砍伐

burning peatlands

和泥炭地的燃烧

and converting coastal wetlands

以及转换沿海湿地的用途

could prevent the release

将可避免人类达到

of nearly five billion metric tons of greenhouse gases each year.

约50亿公吨的总年度温室气体排放量。

Restoring nearly 200 million hectares of degraded forestland,

恢复近2亿公顷的遭破坏的森林、

peatland and wetlands

泥炭地和湿地

could also absorb almost another four billion metric tons.

也可吸收大约40亿公吨的温室气体。

Perhaps even more importantly,

或许更重要的是，

the ocean has vast potential to help reduce greenhouse gases ...

海洋在减少温室气体这方面 具备广大潜力，

if we protect it.

但前提是我们要保护它。

Finally, there are technologies being developed

最后，由于我们已排放太多温室气体，

to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere

我们正在开发新技术

because we have already emitted too much.

以从大气层中去除二氧化碳。

But very few of these machine forests have been deployed

但目前，少数“机械树林”已被动用

and they are too expensive to scale up faster right now.

而且想在现刻扩大其规模也太昂贵。

This is the climate challenge we face:

这是我们所面临的气候挑战：

going from adding 55 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases to the air each year,

从每年排放550亿公吨的温室气体

to adding zero by 2050,

到最晚在2050年前实现

at the latest.

净零排放。

The countdown begins now.

时间从现在开始倒数。

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（音乐）

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