Max Hawkins: I let algorithms randomize my life for two years | TED

Transcriber:

翻译人员: Eileen Soh 校对人员: Laixi Kang

我以前习惯早上七点准时起床。

那时我住在旧金山，

一到七点钟就起来，

I used to love waking up at exactly 7:00am.

然后去我最喜欢的咖啡店。

喜欢这家店是因为 它在各方面都是最好的。

When I lived in San Francisco,

I would wake up right at 7:00am

这个我研究过了， 它是五星级的，非常不错。

and immediately go to my favorite coffee shop.

享用完咖啡后，

It was my favorite coffee shop, because it was the best coffee shop.

我会踩自行车去上班。

我把日程优化到接近完美。

I had done the research, it was five stars, it was great.

And I would drink my coffee

经常还可以在活动上缩短一两秒时间，

and get onto my bicycle and ride into work.

让我动作稍快一点，

And I had optimized my schedule to be perfect.

可以更早开始工作。

I was constantly, like, shaving off one or two seconds

我当时是谷歌的一名软件工程师，

从很多方面来看，

making it slightly faster

那都是我梦想的工作。

so I could get into work faster.

我感觉它是指引我

I was working as a software engineer at Google,

余生方向的一盏明灯。

and in a lot of ways,

我一直就想做和软件相关的工作， 如今终于如愿以偿。

this was my dream job.

It felt like this was the thing

而且我当时住在旧金山，

一个我热爱的城市，

that the rest of my life was leading up towards.

和像我一样的人生活共处。

I'd always wanted to work in software

and I was finally doing it.

我生活的每个细节 都按我的兴趣量身定制。

And I was living in San Francisco,

which is a city that I love,

surrounded by people who were like me.

我过得很快活。

And every part of my life was perfectly tailored to my interests,

直到有一天我在公司看到这篇文章，

the things that I wanted to do.

一篇关于预测分析的研究论文。

And I loved it.

文章主旨是，

So one day I was at work and I started to read this paper,

如果你读取一个人的定位信息，

a computer science research paper about predictive analytics.

列出他上个月去过的所有地方，

And the gist of the paper was

that if you take someone's GPS trace,

把它导入一个机器学习算法，

like the listing of all the places that they've been in the past month or so,

你就可以相当精准地预测到，

明天他将去哪里。

and you feed it into a machine-learning algorithm,

我感觉还挺酷的。

我就在想，

如果把我的定位信息导入算法 会怎么样呢？

you can predict with fairly high accuracy

where they're going to be on the following day.

会出现什么预测呢？

And I thought this was kind of cool.

And I was thinking, like,

当时我跟朋友凯利正在商量，

what would happen if you put my GPS trace into the algorithm?

下班之后要干点什么，

What would come out the other end?

我在 Yelp 网站上找到 一家很不错的酒吧，

So I was talking with my friend Kelly,

刚刚开张。

and we were planning something to do after work that day.

正当我想建议去这个酒吧时，

我停了下来。

And I got onto Yelp and found this really great bar

我又想到了算法的事情。

that had just opened up.

And I was about to suggest that we go to this bar

我心想，等一等，

when I stopped.

这不就是算法预测

And I started thinking about that algorithm again.

我今晚会去的那个酒吧吗？

And I started thinking, wait a second,

感觉有点诡异。

isn't this bar exactly where that algorithm would guess

因为我心想，

那我在这事里扮演着什么角色？

that I was going to go this evening?

And that was kind of weird.

我知道选择在于我，对吗？

Because I thought that I ...

但计算机又是怎么知道的呢？

where was I in that?

这让我有点不安。

I know that I was the one making the choice, right?

作为一个工程师， 每当我遇到这种问题的时候，

But how did the computer know about that?

我的本能是去解决它，

So that was a little disturbing.

制作一个工具去解决问题。

And since I'm an engineer, whenever I have a problem like this,

于是我决定做一个应用，

my instinct is to fix it,

帮我选今晚要去哪里。

to make something that solves the problem.

And so I decided to make an app

而是它的操作方式是，

在谷歌地图搜索，

that would help me choose where to go on this evening.

旧金山的所有地方，

然后随便选出一个目的地。

And so the way that it works

应用会自动叫一辆优步出租车。

is that the app looks at all the places

车会来到你所在的地点，

that are on Google maps in the city of San Francisco,

and then chooses one at random.

再把你带到那个随机选出的地点。

And then it calls an Uber.

应用会告诉司机目的地，

And that car shows up at your location

但会对你一言不露。

这样到达之后你会有个大惊喜。

and takes you to that random place.

（笑声）

It tells the Uber driver where the random place is,

我发了条信息 给凯利说：”我们试试吧。“

but tells you nothing.

And so it's a big surprise when you arrive.

我们见了面，点击了应用。

(Laughter)

然后奇迹般地，

And so I texted Kelly and I said, "We should do this."

我公寓门口出现了一个租车司机。

We met up and pressed the button.

我们上了车，

快速地朝旧金山一个

And suddenly, miraculously,

there was an Uber driver at my apartment door.

我们俩都不熟悉的区域出发。

这是个我们俩从没去过的区域。

So we got in

and very quickly started heading to a part of San Francisco

当司机说我们抵达目的地的时候，

that neither of us really knew.

我们都觉得肯定是在开玩笑。

It was a part of town that we just had never been in before.

我们面前是一栋简朴砖建筑。

And when the driver told us we had reached our destination,

它外围有一排锻铁围栏，

we thought it must have been a joke.

还有一个指示牌写着

We showed up in front of this austere brick building

旧金山综合医院， 精神科急诊中心。

with a wrought iron fence in front of it,

（笑声）

and a sign that said the words

这可能还挺合理的，

San Francisco General Hospital, Psychiatric Emergency Center.

我也搞不懂。

（笑声）

但我们感觉挺有意思的， 也觉得刺激。

(Laughter)

Which, maybe that's pretty appropriate,

因为我们的确

I don't know.

来到这样的一个 我们平时根本不会去的地方，

(Laughter)

But we thought it was funny.

的确在那个周五的晚上做了特别的事。

But it was also exhilarating

because here we were,

（笑声）

然后我就上瘾了。

in this place that we never would have gone to otherwise,

我开始用这个应用，

doing something really different on a Friday night.

来安排去旧金山的各个地方。

(Laughter)

我随机去了不同的博物馆，

And I was hooked,

随机的杂货店、酒吧、保龄球馆

I started using this app

和花店。

to go to all different places in San Francisco.

我开始发现，

I went to museums randomly,

旧金山还有我从未看到过的一面，

random grocery stores, random bars, random bowling alleys,

因为我的个人偏好而一直被忽略。

random florists.

And I started discovering

that there was an entire side to San Francisco

我又想，

that I had been ignoring because of my preference.

如何把这种观念 用在我生活的其他方面？

于是，我开始建造 随机性的其它实验。

And then I started thinking,

我做了一个随机 YouTube 视频播放器，

how else can I apply this concept to my life?

一个随机日程生成器，

和一个随机饮食法生成器。

And so I started building other experiments that involved randomness.

它每周会禁止我吃一种食物。

I made a random YouTube video generator,

（笑声）

a random schedule generator,

因为是累积性的， 所以最后你什么都不可以吃。

a random diet club

that would randomly eliminate a food from my diet each week.

（笑声）

随机生成纹身，

(Laughter)

随机音乐播放列表，

And it's cumulative, so eventually you just can't eat.

随机播客，

还有一台给你随机活动建议的打印机。

(Laughter)

Random tattoo generator,

（笑声）

a random Spotify playlist,

这是随机脸书活动生成器。

random podcast,

它的运作方式是，

a printer that prints out random suggestions of things to do.

比如某一天，在维也纳这样的城市，

(Laughter)

有几百个脸书活动，

A random Facebook event generator.

正在进行的公开性活动。

And the way that this one works

程序会随便选一项活动并告诉你， 这就是你今晚的计划。

is that in a city like Vienna on a given day,

结果我去到了——

there are hundreds of Facebook events --

（笑声）

public Facebook events -- that are going on.

So it would choose one at random and say,

this is your plan for tonight.

我会出现在类似的活动， 如乔的生日聚会，

And so I ended up showing --

(Laughter)

八年级乐队演奏会、国际象棋俱乐部、 卡车司机学校等。

And so I'd show up at events like Joe's birthday,

这真的很好玩，

因为这些都是我从来不认识的团体，

the eighth grade band recital, chess club, truck drivers school.

他们举行棒极了的活动，

讨论自己热爱的话题。

And it was really interesting

而我也参与其中。

because these were communities that I knew nothing about

but were having amazing events

一段时间后，

我得以把工作转为自由职业，

to talk about things that they cared about.

And there I was.

这使我在选择住处时有了更多自由。

After a while,

所以我决定，

I had the opportunity to transition my work into freelance,

不如让计算机决定

which gave me a lot more flexibility about where I lived.

我接下来该住世界上的哪个角落？

于是我写了一个程序来列出，

And so I decided,

根据我的预算， 能让我居住的每一个城市，

you know, what if I could let the computer decide

what part of the world I lived in?

从中随机性的选出一个地方。

And so I wrote a program that figured out

我便开始用这种方式生活，

而它把我带到全球各地。

every city that it was possible for me to live in,

我去到了台北，

given my budget,

and then chose one at random.

印度孟买、迪拜。

And I started living this way

甚至是鲜少美国人踏足的地方，

and it sent me all over the world.

如德国埃森市, 和斯洛文尼亚的哥提那镇。

Taipei, Taiwan,

Mumbai, India, Dubai.

Even places that for an American are really off the beaten path,

每次去到新的城市，

我会像在旧金山一样，

like Essen, Germany and Gortina, Slovenia.

参加随机性活动，认识一些人。

住两三个月之后，

And every time I would go to a new city,

我会让计算机再次选择下一个地点。

I would do the same sort of stuff I was doing in San Francisco,

这样持续了两年。

go to random events, meet random people.

And I'd live there for two to three months

有点矛盾的是, 把控制权交给机器后，

and then ask the computer again for the next location.

I did this for two years.

我反而感觉自己在做决定时 变得比以前更加自由。

Paradoxically, giving up control to this machine

因为我发现，

个人偏好会导致我忽略一个事实：

actually made me feel more free than when I was making choices,

世界是复杂的、丰富多彩的。

because I discovered that ...

计算机的指引给了我勇气

去走出舒适圈，

My preference had blinded me from the complexity

体验更多人生经历。

and the richness of the world.

那些经历曾因为和我的偏好差异太大

And following the computer gave me the courage

或不适合我而被忽略。

to live outside of my comfort zone,

to discover parts of the human experience that I ignored

我在印度孟买住了一段时间，

because they were too different

or not for me.

参加了很多脸书活动。

I ended up in Mumbai, India for a while,

一天，计算机把我带到一节瑜伽课里，

and I was going to a lot of Facebook events when I was there.

虽然我不太会做瑜伽，

但还是去了。

And one day, the computer sent me to this yoga class

在做下犬式体式时，

and I'm really bad at yoga,

我突然恍然大悟。

but I went anyway.

当时我在想，

I found myself descending into a downward dog

做这种随机的事情让我释放了自我。

when I had a revelation.

把我放在保护罩、舒适圈之外。

Because I was thinking about, you know,

但究竟有多随机呢？

this random stuff is really freeing,

因为这并不是我在孟买的第一次瑜伽课。

it's sort of putting me outside of my bubble, my comfort zone.

实际上已经是那个星期的第三次了。

But really how random is it?

（笑声）

Because this was not my first yoga event in Mumbai.

如果你仔细想想，

发现这些规律一点也不稀奇。

In fact, it was my third that week.

(Laughter)

因为我是从一张显然不随机的清单里 随机作出选择的。

And if you think about it,

it's not surprising that you see patterns like this.

一个城市的脸书活动清单，

Because I was choosing randomly

很大程度上会被城市里 发生的事情受到影响。

from a list of things that was decidedly not random.

你想一下，其实你的每个选择，

The list of Facebook events that are happening in a city

is very influenced by the things that are going on in a city like that.

都不是自己独立作出的，

而是从一张清单里选出来的，

And if you think about it, every time you make a choice,

一张包含各种选择的列表，

它由是某个人或事物设计出来的。

you're not just making it on your own.

不管你在这个决定上拥有多大自由，

You're selecting from a list,

a menu of choices

都一定会被社会结构、习俗和历史

that was designed by someone or something else.

And whatever freedom that you have in that choice

这些大背景所限制。

is necessarily constrained by social structures, customs and history

一开始我以为这是走出舒适圈，

that provide the context for that selection.

超越自我和偏好的一种方式。

So initially, I thought of this as a way of getting outside of my bubble.

但最后我有了不同的看法。

As, you know, transcending myself, my preference.

我把它看成类似于拍照的东西。

在孟买这样的地方时，

But eventually I started to think about it differently.

我参加瑜伽课的可能性会更大。

I started to think about it as a way of taking a photograph.

而在维也纳，我更有可能 去参加一场音乐会。

When I was in a place like Mumbai,

it was more likely that I would show up at a yoga event.

每到在一个城市做出随机选择时，

But if I was in Vienna,

我其实都是在询问：

maybe a music event would be more likely.

Every time that I was choosing randomly in a city,

“孟买，告诉我你是个怎样的城市。”

答案会揭示这座城市的结构，

what I was doing was making an inquiry, asking,

我和这座城市的关系，

"Mumbai, tell me what you're about."

以及它和世界其它地方的关系。

And then the answer would tell me something about the structure of that city

所以我……

and my relationship to it

本来我准备了一个干净利落的结尾。

and its relationship with the rest of the world.

但来这里的路上，我决定不用它了。

And so I ...

I had, like, a really tidy ending for this previously.

因为我觉得 TED 演讲通常 存在一个问题。

And as I was coming up here, I decided to scrap it, because ...

演讲者把讲话的内容包装得干净简洁，

所以大家就可以不再去 思考所听过的内容。

You know, I think that, like, a problem with TED Talks often

is that they wrap up in a tidy bow

大家似乎觉得

听完演讲后一切太平。

and then you can go away without really thinking about it.

但我认为，

我们生活的这个世界上

You can sort of just --

It feels like everything is OK at the end.

存在许多实际问题。

And I think ...

而关于算法控制的疑问，

In the world that we're living in,

there are a lot of real problems.

在很多问题里都扮演了很大的角色。

现在我们正在讨论，

And I think that these questions of algorithmic control

脸书对美国选举起到什么作用。

play a lot into them.

有很多关于算法的疑问 聚焦在它们是怎样控制人们生活的。

We're talking right now about the role

that Facebook had in the American election.

我的回答是，我不知道。

There are a lot of questions

我也不知道我在说什么，

about the ways that these algorithms are controlling our lives.

也没有一个很清晰的结论。

And so, I don't know,

但我只想鼓励大家勇于去尝试，

I don't know what I'm saying

and I don't have, like, a very clear conclusion.

勇于和这些算法互动。

But I would just encourage you to try to be experimental

如果你一直墨守成规，

when it comes to interacting with these algorithms.

只做自己喜欢的事情，

只走大家都走的路，

Because if you just do the defaults,

就更容易被算法控制。

follow your preference,

go in the direction that everything else is going,

我要说的就是这些。

谢谢。

（掌声）

it's really easy to get caught in a place where you can be controlled.

And I think that's it.

Thank you.

(Applause)