A fascinating time capsule of human feelings toward AI | Lucy Farey-Jones

翻译人员: Shuhui Huang 校对人员: Yuwei Wu

我站在这里，是因为我有 太多个夜晚无法入眠，

担心和好奇哪一方最终会获胜。

人类还是机器人？

I'm here, because I've spent far too many nights lying awake,

如你所见，作为一个技术战略专家，

我的工作涉及到行为改变：

worrying and wondering who wins in the end.

去理解人们为什么 以及如何采用新技术。

Is it humans or is it robots?

这意味着我会非常沮丧，

You see, as a technology strategist,

my job involves behavior change:

因为我知道我无法 活到这一切的结局。

understanding why and how people adopt new technologies.

事实上，如果看这个演讲 最年轻的人是十四岁，

And that means I'm really frustrated

而年纪最大的那位， 长寿的九十九岁，

that I know I won't live to see how this all ends up.

这样加起来，

我们的集体意识 也不过覆盖 185 年。

And in fact, if the youngest person watching this is 14

and the oldest, a robust 99,

想想这个星球上生命的进化演变，

then together,

our collective consciousnesses span just 185 years.

这点时间不过是弹指一挥。

说明我们都是无法参与的旁观者，

That is a myopic pinprick of time

没有谁可以活到这个问题的结局。

when you think of the evolution and the story of life on this planet.

所以我的公司想要解决这个问题。

我们想看看是否有办法跳出

Turns out we're all in the cheap seats

and none of us will live to see how it all pans out.

我们现有的时间点的限制

So at my company, we wanted a way around this.

去了解这一切将如何进展。

为此，我们调研了 1200 名美国人，

We wanted to see if there was a way to cantilever out,

beyond our fixed temporal vantage point,

他们代表了美国 人口普查的典型样本。

to get a sense of how it all shakes up.

我们问了一系列 他们对于人工智能和机器人的看法，

And to do this, we conducted a study amongst 1,200 Americans

并采集了他们科技采用的行为数据。

representative of the US census,

in which we asked a battery of attitudinal questions

我们进行了这项大型研究

来分析性别之间，年代之间，

around robotics and AI

and also captured behavioral ones around technology adoption.

以及宗教信仰，政治信仰

甚至工作职能 和人格特质之间的差异。

We had a big study

在机器人时代前的黎明，

so that we could analyze differences in gender and generations,

这是一颗迷人而短暂的， 包裹着人类之脆弱的时间胶囊。

between religious and political beliefs,

even job function and personality trait.

我有五分钟来向你解释它。

It is a fascinating, time-bound time capsule

你该知道的第一件事是

of our human frailty

in this predawn of the robotic era.

我们列出了一个现有和潜在的， 人工智能机器人应用场景的清单。

And I have five minutes to tell you about it.

The first thing you should know is that we brainstormed

这份清单上天入地脑洞清奇，

a list of scenarios of current and potential AI robotics.

那么，房屋清洁机器人， 有点想法不？

恶搞点儿的，

想过机器人宠物保姆， 或是机器人律师吗？

They ran the spectrum from the mundane,

又或是机器人做爱伴侣？

so, a robot house cleaner, anyone?

来点可怕的， 比如半机械人，人和机器的结合体，

Through to the mischievous,

the idea of a robot pet sitter, or maybe a robot lawyer,

或者上传你的大脑，这样你死了它还活着。

or maybe a sex partner.

Through to the downright macabre, the idea of being a cyborg,

我们根据在这些场景下 人们的舒适度，画了一张图表。

blending human and robot,

or uploading your brain so it could live on after your death.

在研究中共有 31 个场景，

但方便起见，在这里我就展示几个。

And we plotted people's comfort levels with these various scenarios.

你首先会注意的， 当然是这一大片红色区域。

There were actually 31 in the study,

说明美国人对这些东西 都感到很不舒服。

but for ease, I'm going to show you just a few of them here.

所以我们叫它不适指数， 而不是舒适指数。

The first thing you'll notice, of course, is the sea of red.

大多数美国人只能接受两件事，

America is very uncomfortable with this stuff.

That's why we call it the discomfort index,

就是智能房屋清洁机器人 和智能快递机器人。

not the comfort index.

There were only two things the majority of America is OK with.

所以戴森和亚马逊，你们应该聊聊。

And that's the idea of a robot AI house cleaner

资本机遇就在这里。

看来我们已经准备好把家务 交给我们的机器人朋友啦。

and a robot AI package deliverer,

so Dyson and Amazon, you guys should talk.

在服务方面，我们算是不置可否，

There's an opportunity there.

智能机器人律师或是财务顾问， 也许可以接受。

It seems we're ready to off-load our chores to our robot friends.

但我们坚决反对机器人看护的想法，

We're kind of definitely on the fence when it comes to services,

无论是护士，医生还是育儿。

so robot AI lawyer or a financial adviser, maybe.

看到这，你可能会说，

哎呀没关系的，露西，

去睡觉吧，别担心， 人类终将胜利。

But we're firmly closed to the idea of robot care,

别那么着急下结论。

whether it be a nurse, a doctor, child care.

如果你仔细看我的数据，

So from this, you'd go,

你会发现我们比自己想得要脆弱。

"It's OK, Lucy, you know what?

Go back to sleep, stop worrying, the humans win in the end."

人工智能不太擅长品牌化自己。

有那么多人说他们绝对不接受 个人助理这个选项，

But actually not so fast.

If you look at my data very closely,

you can see we're more vulnerable than we think.

可事实上，其中 45% 的人 在他们的口袋里就有一个：

AI has a branding problem.

Alexa，谷歌或Siri。

So of those folks who said

that they would absolutely reject the idea of a personal assistant,

五分之一的人反对人工智能配对，

45 percent of them had, in fact, one in their pockets,

却已经，你猜对了， 尝试过线上约会。

in terms of a device with Alexa, Google or Siri.

还有 80% 的拒绝乘坐

One in five of those who were against the idea of AI matchmaking

由人类飞行员替补的无人驾驶飞机的人，

也都乘坐过商务航班，

had of course, you guessed it, done online dating.

就像今天飞来温哥华的我。

And 80 percent of those of us who refuse the idea

以免你觉得每个人 都很害怕，实际上，

of boarding an autonomous plane with a pilot backup

这中间还有了不起的中立者。

had in fact, just like me to get here to Vancouver,

如果你向他们提起，

“机器人朋友。”

flown commercial.

Lest you think everybody was scared, though,

他们会说“嗯, 机器人朋友，也许可以。”

here are the marvelous folk in the middle.

亦或是你说， “人工智能宠物呢。”

These are the neutrals.

他们会说，“话不要说死嘛。“

These are people for whom you say,

"OK, robot friend,"

而就像任何有点本事的 参政人员知道的那样，

and they're like, "Hm, robot friend. Maybe."

争取到摇摆的中立方 就可以改变大局走向。

Or, "AI pet,"

and they go, "Never say never."

另一个体现我们脆弱之处的， 是男人——

And as any decent political operative knows,

不好意思，男人们， 你们认可无人驾驶

flipping the ambivalent middle can change the game.

和觉得上传大脑得永生 很好玩的人数，

Another reason I know we're vulnerable is men --

是女人的两倍，

I'm sorry, but men, you are twice as likely than women

而觉得变成半机械人很酷炫的人数, 是女人的两倍半，

to believe that getting into an autonomous car is a good idea,

当然我认为这是好莱坞的错。

（观众笑）

that uploading your brain for posterity is fun,

现在我希望你们左右看看这个场子，

and two and a half times more likely to believe that becoming a cyborg is cool,

要知道这里每四个男人，就有一个 觉得和机器人上床没什么问题。

and for this, I blame Hollywood.

算下来，那就是 千禧一代男人的 44%，

(Laughter)

And this is where I want you to look around the theater

而相对的，女人只有 10%。

这给对于“机械式做爱”的抱怨 来了一层反转。

and know that one in four men are OK with the idea of sex with a robot.

That goes up to 44 percent of millennial men

（笑）

然而说实话， 更让人惊讶的是

compared to just one in 10 women,

真正行为上的区别。

which I think puts a whole new twist on the complaint of mechanical sex.

这张图表显示了持有和不持有 装载语音助手设备的人的数量，

(Laughter)

Even more astounding than that though, to be honest,

比如智能音箱、 智能家居控制中心，或智能手机。

is this behavioral difference.

So here we have people who have a device with a voice assistant in it,

你们可以看到，

特洛伊木马已经来到了我们家里。

so a smart speaker, a home hub or a smart phone,

随着这些智能设备的数量激增，

versus those who don't.

和我们的集体意识的卸防，

And you can see from this graph

that the Trojan horse is already in our living room.

我们已经可以看到结局了。

也许现在是最适合承认

And as these devices proliferate

and our collective defenses soften,

我度假的时候 带上了Alexa智能音箱的时机。

最后一个我有时间聊的发现， 是时代性。

we all see how it can end.

看看才三代人产生的不同。

In fact, this may be as good a time as any to admit

I did take my Alexa Dot on vacation with me.

这是从沉默的一代，到婴儿潮那代， 再到千禧一代的跨度。

更精彩的是， 如果你稍微推导一下，

Final finding I have time for is generational.

So look at the difference just three generations make.

按照这个速度，

This is the leap from silent to boomer to millennial.

虽然我很确定以后会加速，

And what's more fascinating than this is if you extrapolate this out,

如果速度不变，

那八代之后，

the same rate of change,

我们就能听到每个美国人

just the same pace,

not the accelerated one I actually believe will be the case,

说这些东西大部分都是正常的。

the same pace,

所以2222年就是 那个神奇的一年，

then it is eight generations away

when we hear every single American

当这里提及的所有都成为主流。

thinking the majority of these things here are normal.

如果你还需要一些说服，

这是一张不同时代出生的人， “对人工智能的兴奋度”

So the year 2222 is an astounding place

理所当然地，年轻人是最兴奋的。

where everything here is mainstream.

And lest you needed any more convincing,

然而， 我职业生涯中最矛盾的发现却是，

here is the generation's "excitement level with AI."

当我向他们提出， 我的深夜灵魂拷问，

So not surprisingly, the youngest of us are more excited.

“谁是最后的赢家？”

But, and possibly the most paradoxical finding of my career,

结果你猜。

越是对人工智能和机器人感到兴奋，

when I asked these people my 3am question,

你就越可能说机器人会赢。

"Who wins in the end?"

我并不觉得我们需要 一个神经网络学习软件

Guess what.

The more excited you are about AI and robotics,

来预测这的最终走向。

the more likely you are to say it's the robots.

我们就是那温水里煮着的青蛙。

所以如果在TED2222， 机器人们正在观看这篇演讲庆祝胜利，

And I don't think we need a neural net running pattern-recognition software

to see where this is all headed.

We are the proverbial frogs in boiling water.

你们能不能派一个半机械人 把我挖出来，然后告诉我你是对的？

So if the robots at TED2222 are watching this for posterity,

（观众笑）

谢谢。

（鼓掌）

could you send a cyborg, dig me up and tell me if I was right?

(Laughter)

Thank you.

(Applause)