A fascinating time capsule of human feelings toward AI | Lucy Farey-Jones

譯者: Yiann C. 審譯者: Helen Chang

I'm here, because I've spent far too many nights lying awake,

我今天站在這裡 因為有許多睡不著的夜晚

worrying and wondering who wins in the end.

我不停擔心著 思考著誰是最後的贏家

Is it humans or is it robots?

是人類呢？還是機器人？

You see, as a technology strategist,

身為一位科技策略師

my job involves behavior change:

我的工作有關於人類行為變化

understanding why and how people adopt new technologies.

包含理解人們為何以及如何接納新科技

And that means I'm really frustrated

這讓我非常沮喪

that I know I won't live to see how this all ends up.

因為我知道在我有生之年 我無法見證最後的結果

And in fact, if the youngest person watching this is 14

事實上，如果觀看這場演講 最年輕的觀眾是14歲

and the oldest, a robust 99,

最年長的是位強健的99歲

then together,

合起來

our collective consciousnesses span just 185 years.

我們的集體意識只橫跨了185年

That is a myopic pinprick of time

想想地球上生命的演化歷程

when you think of the evolution and the story of life on this planet.

這是非常微不足道的時間

Turns out we're all in the cheap seats

結果我們都像坐在舞台最後方的觀眾

and none of us will live to see how it all pans out.

沒有人有機會看到最後的結尾

So at my company, we wanted a way around this.

所以我的公司試圖解決這個問題

We wanted to see if there was a way to cantilever out,

我們想看看有沒有方法

可以讓我們超越現在所在的時間點

beyond our fixed temporal vantage point,

to get a sense of how it all shakes up.

得知最後發生什麼事

And to do this, we conducted a study amongst 1,200 Americans

因此我們對1,200名美國民眾 做了一項研究

representative of the US census,

這群民眾的分佈比例 與美國人口統計相符

in which we asked a battery of attitudinal questions

在這項研究中，我們問了一系列

around robotics and AI

關於他們對機器人 與人工智慧的態度問題

and also captured behavioral ones around technology adoption.

以及如何接納新科技的行為問題

這項研究的規模很大

We had a big study

so that we could analyze differences in gender and generations,

所以我們才能夠分析 不同性別與世代的差異

between religious and political beliefs,

不同宗教信仰和政治傾向

even job function and personality trait.

甚至不同工作職務 和人格特質所帶來的影響

It is a fascinating, time-bound time capsule

這是一個迷人的時空膠囊

of our human frailty

保存了人類的脆弱

in this predawn of the robotic era.

在當前這個機器人時代的初期

And I have five minutes to tell you about it.

我有五分鐘向大家說明

The first thing you should know is that we brainstormed

首先你得知道 我們腦力激盪出一張清單

a list of scenarios of current and potential AI robotics.

包含目前現有的以及未來 可能發展出的人工智慧機器人

They ran the spectrum from the mundane,

從平凡的科技

so, a robot house cleaner, anyone?

像掃地機器人 有人有嗎？

Through to the mischievous,

到各種天馬行空的點子

the idea of a robot pet sitter, or maybe a robot lawyer,

例如機器寵物保姆 或是機器人律師

or maybe a sex partner.

或是機器性伴侶

Through to the downright macabre, the idea of being a cyborg,

甚至非常駭人的想法 例如賽伯格

blending human and robot,

人機混種

or uploading your brain so it could live on after your death.

或是上傳你的大腦 讓它在你死後還能繼續存活

And we plotted people's comfort levels with these various scenarios.

接著我們繪製了人們對於各種情境 感到的自在程度

There were actually 31 in the study,

這項研究其實有31個情境

but for ease, I'm going to show you just a few of them here.

但為了方便 我只給大家看其中幾個

The first thing you'll notice, of course, is the sea of red.

你一定會先注意到這一大片紅色

America is very uncomfortable with this stuff.

這些讓美國人感到很不舒服

That's why we call it the discomfort index,

所以我們才稱這個為不安指數

not the comfort index.

而不是舒適指數

There were only two things the majority of America is OK with.

只有兩件事 大部分的美國人還可以接受

And that's the idea of a robot AI house cleaner

一個是智慧居家清潔機器人

and a robot AI package deliverer,

另一個是智慧送貨機器人

so Dyson and Amazon, you guys should talk.

所以戴森和亞馬遜 你們應該聊聊

There's an opportunity there.

這是個商機

It seems we're ready to off-load our chores to our robot friends.

看起來我們願意分擔瑣碎的雜事 給我們的機器人朋友

We're kind of definitely on the fence when it comes to services,

我們似乎對於公共服務方面 還不太確定

so robot AI lawyer or a financial adviser, maybe.

例如機器人律師 或是機器人理財顧問

But we're firmly closed to the idea of robot care,

但我們絕對接受不了機器人照護

whether it be a nurse, a doctor, child care.

像是機器人護士、醫生、托兒

So from this, you'd go,

所以你可能會說：

"It's OK, Lucy, you know what?

「沒關係，露西，

Go back to sleep, stop worrying, the humans win in the end."

回去睡覺吧，別擔心了。 人類終究會贏的。」

But actually not so fast.

但別這麼快下結論

If you look at my data very closely,

如果你仔細看我的數據

you can see we're more vulnerable than we think.

你會發現我們比想像得脆弱

AI has a branding problem.

人工智慧有個品牌行銷問題

那些說

So of those folks who said

that they would absolutely reject the idea of a personal assistant,

絕對會否決智慧個人助理的想法的人

45 percent of them had, in fact, one in their pockets,

其中百分之45的人 就有一個在他們的口袋裡

in terms of a device with Alexa, Google or Siri.

像是Alexa, Google, Siri 的裝置

One in five of those who were against the idea of AI matchmaking

每五個反對智慧機器媒人的人

had of course, you guessed it, done online dating.

你應該猜到了，就有一個人 用過線上交友軟體

And 80 percent of those of us who refuse the idea

那些反對搭乘載有後備飛行員的

of boarding an autonomous plane with a pilot backup

自動駕駛飛機的人 其中百分之80

had in fact, just like me to get here to Vancouver,

事實上 就像我來溫哥華

flown commercial.

飛過商用航空

Lest you think everybody was scared, though,

以防你覺得大家都很害怕

here are the marvelous folk in the middle.

中間有一群不可思議的人們

These are the neutrals.

他們是中立的

These are people for whom you say,

他們是一群 當你說：

"OK, robot friend,"

「機器人朋友」

and they're like, "Hm, robot friend. Maybe."

他們會說： 「嗯...機器人朋友...可能吧。」

Or, "AI pet,"

或是你說： 「智慧機器寵物」

and they go, "Never say never."

他們會說： 「別說不可能」

And as any decent political operative knows,

就像任何一個政客都知道

flipping the ambivalent middle can change the game.

翻轉搖擺的中間選民 可以改變結果

Another reason I know we're vulnerable is men --

我知道我們容易被征服的 另一個原因是男性...

I'm sorry, but men, you are twice as likely than women

抱歉，但是男性樂觀看待這些的 可能性是女性的兩倍

to believe that getting into an autonomous car is a good idea,

例如，搭乘自動駕駛車是個好主意

that uploading your brain for posterity is fun,

上傳大腦流傳後代 聽起來很有趣

and two and a half times more likely to believe that becoming a cyborg is cool,

認為變成賽伯格很酷的可能性 也是女性的兩倍半

and for this, I blame Hollywood.

這些 我都怪好萊塢

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And this is where I want you to look around the theater

這時候我希望你看看周圍的觀眾

and know that one in four men are OK with the idea of sex with a robot.

你要知道每四位男性 就有一位可以接受和機器人做愛

That goes up to 44 percent of millennial men

千禧世代中 這樣的男性高達百分之44

compared to just one in 10 women,

反觀只有十分之一的女性能接受

which I think puts a whole new twist on the complaint of mechanical sex.

我認為這會為對於機器性愛的抱怨 帶來全新的轉折

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Even more astounding than that though, to be honest,

更令人震驚的是 老實說

is this behavioral difference.

是行為差異

So here we have people who have a device with a voice assistant in it,

這裡比較一群 擁有語音助理的裝置的人

so a smart speaker, a home hub or a smart phone,

像是智慧喇叭、智慧家庭裝置 或是智慧型手機

versus those who don't.

和另一群沒有這些裝置的人

And you can see from this graph

可以從這個圖表看出來

that the Trojan horse is already in our living room.

特洛伊木馬已經在我們的客廳了

And as these devices proliferate

隨著這些裝置持續激增

and our collective defenses soften,

以及我們集體的防衛逐漸軟化

we all see how it can end.

我們都知道最後會如何

In fact, this may be as good a time as any to admit

老實說 現在是個告白的好時機

I did take my Alexa Dot on vacation with me.

我去度假的時候 有帶著我的Alexa Dot

Final finding I have time for is generational.

今天分享的最後一個研究結果 是世代差異

So look at the difference just three generations make.

看看這三個世代帶來的差異

This is the leap from silent to boomer to millennial.

這是從沈默的一代，到戰後嬰兒潮 到千禧世代的躍進

And what's more fascinating than this is if you extrapolate this out,

更驚人的是 從這邊可以推知

the same rate of change,

變化的速率是一樣的

just the same pace,

完全一樣的速度

not the accelerated one I actually believe will be the case,

我以為會加速 並沒有

the same pace,

一樣的速度

then it is eight generations away

這樣下來 八個世代之後

when we hear every single American

我們就會聽到每個美國人

thinking the majority of these things here are normal.

都認爲這些事情再正常不過了

So the year 2222 is an astounding place

所以2222年會很驚奇

where everything here is mainstream.

今天所講的事都會成為主流

And lest you needed any more convincing,

假如你還沒被說服

here is the generation's "excitement level with AI."

這個是各個世代 對於人工智慧的興奮程度

So not surprisingly, the youngest of us are more excited.

不意外地 最年輕的世代越感到興奮

But, and possibly the most paradoxical finding of my career,

但是，這大概是我職業生涯中 最矛盾的研究結果

when I asked these people my 3am question,

當我問這些人 我常在凌晨思考的問題

"Who wins in the end?"

「最後誰會贏？」

Guess what.

猜猜看

The more excited you are about AI and robotics,

對人工智慧和機器人越感到興奮

the more likely you are to say it's the robots.

你越可能會回答 機器人是最後的贏家

And I don't think we need a neural net running pattern-recognition software

我不覺得我們需要一個 運行類神經網路模式識別的軟體

to see where this is all headed.

來告訴我們後來一切的走向

We are the proverbial frogs in boiling water.

眾所皆知 我們是在溫水裡煮的青蛙

So if the robots at TED2222 are watching this for posterity,

所以如果在 TED 2222 有機器人在為了後代子孫看這場演講

could you send a cyborg, dig me up and tell me if I was right?

可以請你派一個賽伯格 把我從土裡挖出來

告訴我我是對的嗎？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）