Hongqiao Liu: Can China achieve its ambitious climate pledges? | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Cissy Yun 校对人员:

Last year, China's leader Xi Jinping made a historic pledge

去年，中国主席习近平 就应对全球变暖

to fight global warming.

做出了一个历史性的承诺：

China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030

中国将力争在2030年前 使二氧化碳排放达到峰值，

and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

并在2060年前实现碳中和。

But what do those commitments actually mean?

这些承诺究竟意味着什么？

First, let's consider the magnitude of these pledges.

首先，让我们看看该承诺的重要性。

They call for domestic climate actions at an unprecedented speed and scale.

它们号召以前所未有的速度和规模 在国内开展应对气候行动。

Due to the size of China, they will also matter globally.

考虑到中国幅员辽阔， 它们亦对全球应对气候变化至关重要。

China is as large as the US,

中美面积相似，

with four times the population.

人口上，中国却是美国的四倍。

With double-digit annual economic growth in the past 40 years,

在过去的40年里， 中国经济发展对应的年均增长率为两位数，

China has become the world's second-largest economy in 2010.

并在2010年， 中国成为了世界第二大经济体。

And the story of China being the world's largest emitter

中国成为世界上最大的排放国

is a fairly recent one.

也才不多久。

When I was born,

我出生的时候，

and you can see I'm not that old,

你也看得出来我年纪不大，

the emissions in China were only half those of the US.

中国的排放量仅为美国的一半。

It only became the largest about 15 years ago.

直到15年前， 中国才成为世界最大的二氧化碳排放国。

In 2019, China represents 28 percent of global CO2 emissions.

2019年， 中国占全球二氧化碳排放量的28%。

Its emissions are so significant today

中国的排放量如此巨大， 它的减排对全球气候至关重要，

that going net-zero before 2060

若中国能在 2060 年实现碳中和，

could prevent 0.2 to 0.3-degrees of global warming

有可能防止全球气温 进一步升高 0.2 到 0.3 摄氏度，

and bring down 215 billion tons of CO2 emissions in the next 40 years.

并可以在接下来 40 年内 避免 2150 亿吨的二氧化碳排放。

And that is equivalent to its cumulative emissions

这 2150 亿相当于

in the past half century.

中国在过去半个世纪的累计排放量。

So why does China emit so much?

中国的排放量为何如此巨大？

The phenomenal economic growth in China, like in many developed countries,

与许多发达国家一样， 中国现象级的经济增长

was primarily driven by fossil fuels.

与化石燃料不可分割。

In 2020,

2020 年

84 percent of China’s primary energy consumption came from fossil fuels.

中国 84% 的一次能源消费 来自于化石燃料。

The thirst for energy has made it the world's largest coal consumer,

对能源的渴求 使其成为全球最大煤炭消费国，

the second-largest oil consumer

第二大石油消费国，

and the single largest contributor to the growth in demand for gas.

以及拉动天然气需求增长的主力。

But there's another side to the story.

但故事还有另外一面。

In the past decade,

在过去的十年中，

China has also seen the world's fastest and the largest deployment

中国见证了世界上

几乎所有清洁、绿色和低碳应用的 最迅速、最大规模的推广

of almost anything clean, green and low-carbon.

And that includes a long list of number ones

其中包括多项领域的第一，

in the field of non-fossil energy,

比如非化石能源领域、

low-carbon transportation, green buildings and you just name it.

低碳交通领域， 绿色建筑领域等等。

In July 2021, China launched the world's largest emissions-trading scheme.

在 2021 年 7 月，中国启动了 全球规模最大的碳排放交易体系。

The single act has now put a carbon price to 12 percent of global CO2 emissions.

仅此行动就给全球 12% 的 二氧化碳排放量赋予了“碳价”。

China is also the largest producer and the processor

中国还是许多清洁能源技术 所使用的关键矿产的

of a few critical minerals used for clean-energy technologies.

最大生产国和加工国。

It also manufactures the world's most wind turbines and solar panels.

它同时制造了全球最多的风力涡轮机 和太阳能电池板

According to Cambridge Econometrics, a UK-based consultancy,

据英国咨询机构剑桥计量经济学会，

the huge scale of investment required for a net-zero China before 2060

中国为实现 2060 年碳中和 所需的巨额投资

could create a “positive spillover effect” on other countries,

会对其他国家产生 “正向的溢出效应”，

bringing down the cost of clean energy all around the world.

不断降低全球清洁能源价格。

And such an effect has already been observed

我们已经在太阳能光伏板的价格上

in the cost of solar panels.

观察到了类似的效应。

But the road to net-zero will not be an easy one.

然而，迈向碳中和的道路并不轻松。

As China's leader Xi Jinping said himself,

用习近平自己的话来说，

China must make "extraordinarily hard efforts."

中国将“付出艰苦努力”。

One of the reasons is the “much shorter time span,” as Xi put it.

正如习近平所言，原因之一

是“远远短于发达国家所用时间”。

China has pledged to peak its emissions in the next nine years.

中国已承诺在未来九年内实现碳达峰。

It's worth noting, however,

但应注意，

this is considered“highly insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker,

气候行动追踪组（CAT）， 一个独立的科学研究组织

an independent scientific analysis,

认为该承诺“非常不足”。

for the consistency of a three- to four- degree warmer [planet].

因为与之对应的 将是升温 3 到 4 摄氏度的地球。

China should also bring down 10 to 11 billion tons

中国还需将每年 100 到 110 亿吨的

of annual CO2 emissions at its peak level

二氧化碳排放 从峰值降至净零，

to net-zero in about 30 years.

并要在 30 年左右完成。

That's my age, by the way.

顺便提一下，这恰好是我的年纪。

That would take the nations of the EU about 60, 70 years.

对欧盟国家来说，

实现从达峰到净零的时间 大概在 60 到 70 年。

However, unlike the EU,

但是，与欧盟国家不同，

China faces a dual challenge.

中国面临着双重挑战。

In 2020, there were 600 million people living in China

在2020年，中国仍然有六亿人

with a monthly income of about 140 US dollars or less.

月收入低等于 140 美元。

China wants to become a "great socialist modern country,"

中国希望成为 “社会主义现代化强国”，

which translates to continuous urbanization and modernization.

这意味着持续的城市化 以及现代化进程。

Any tiny improvement

任何一个小进步，

that lifts up the living standard of an average Chinese person

提升一个普通中国人生活质量的小进步，

must be multiplied by 1.4 billion.

都需要乘以14亿。

And that could mean a lot more emissions.

这可能意味着更多的排放。

Another challenge is transforming the economic structure.

中国面临的另一个挑战是 转变经济结构。

In 2020, 38 percent of China's GDP came from the secondary industry.

在2020年， 中国 38% 的GDP来自于第二产业。

Many of them are considered as "liang gao" industries in China,

在中国，许多（第二产业）都被称为

which means “dual high.”

“两高”行业，

That's high energy consumption and high emissions.

高耗能和高排放。

These industries include coal power

这些产业包括煤电

and the manufacturing of iron and steel,

以及钢铁制造业

cement, aluminium, chemicals, petrochemicals,

水泥、铝业、化工、石化，

you know, the hard-to-abate industries you've heard of.

也就是你所熟知的 那些“难以减排”的行业。

And according to the International Energy Agency,

据国际能源署，

the power and industry combined

电力与工业相加

add up to 84 percent of the nation's total CO2 emissions.

排放了该国 84% 的二氧化碳。

For decades, China has been the so-called “factory of the world.”

数十年来，中国被称为”世界工厂“

The emissions generated from such production,

为此类生产而造成的排放

known as "embedded carbon,"

被称为“隐形碳”，

are calculated as domestic emissions in China

这些都被算入中国的本土碳排放量，

rather than being ascribed to countries that import Chinese-made products.

而非计入那些进口中国制造品的国家。

But regardless of all those challenges, China has made its pledge.

但不顾这些挑战，中国已作出了承诺。

So how can China get there?

中国要如何做到呢？

China has pledged that it will not build any [more] coal power plants abroad,

中国已承诺停建新的海外燃煤电厂，

and it will start to phase out coal consumption

并将逐步减少煤炭消费,

starting from the 15th Five-Year period.

从“十五五”时期开始，

That's 2026 and onwards.

也就是2026年后。

Its greening up the energy structure

中国还在采取措施 使其能源结构更为绿色

and ramping up electrification.

并加速提升电气化水平。

According to experts from Tsinghua University,

根据清华大学专家的研究，

electricity can meet 79 percent of China's final energy consumption by 2060,

到 2060 年，电力可以满足 中国 79% 的终端能源消费，

if net-zero is achieved.

前提是实现净零排放。

And that's almost triple today's level.

这几乎是当前水平的三倍。

The industry sectors we just talked about

我们刚刚谈到的工业部门

are also going through structural reform,

也在开展结构性改革，

fuel switching and technology upgrades,

燃料转换和技术升级，

including starting pilots such as hydrogen-fueled steelmaking

包括启动氢燃料炼钢等试点项目

and the so-called negative emissions technologies,

以及所谓的负排放技术，

you're familiar with that, you know,

你了解的，

carbon capture or storage, that type of thing.

诸如碳捕获以及储存这样的技术。

And while China already has

中国已有全球规模最大的

the world's largest installed capacity for wind and solar,

风能和太阳能发电装机，

it has committed to double it over the next nine years.

但它承诺在未来九年内将其翻倍。

A high-level review compiled by Energy Foundation China

由中国能源基金会编制的 一份高级别评估报告

on China's pathway to two-degree and 1.5-degree

回顾了中国实现 2 摄氏度和 1.5 摄氏度目标的路径

concludes that most of the scenarios project China to peak its emissions

得出的结论是， 大多数情景研究显示，中国的排放量

before the pledge deadline of 2030.

可以在其承诺的2030年截止日期之前 达到峰值。

It could be even before 2025.

甚至可以是2025年前。

The city of Beijing has already done that about 10 years ago.

北京这座城市大概在十年前就已做到。

And many high-emission provinces have also shown a sign of a slowdown.

许多高排放省份也呈现出 排放放缓的迹象。

Experts such as Zou Ji, a veteran environmental economist,

邹骥是一位经验丰富的环境经济学家，

believe that, compared to “Western countries,”

他认为，相较于“西方国家”，

China can achieve its climate pledges at a lower per-capita income

中国可以更低的人均收入 达成其气候承诺，

and more crucially,

更重要的是

a shorter plateau to its emissions peak once it is achieved.

在达峰后， 以更短的平台期实现碳中和。

China’s leadership holds a clear view

中国领导层对此看法明确：

that the country must move away from the “GDP-oriented” pattern

中国必须摆脱 “以GDP为导向”的模式，

that “pollutes, then treats,”

即“先污染，后治理”，

to what it calls an “ecological civilization.”

转为建设其提倡的“生态文明”。

Since 2010, China almost doubled its GDP per capita

自2010年以来， 中国人均 GDP 几乎翻了一番，

while largely maintaining a steady level of emissions per capita.

仍同时保持着人均排放量基本稳定。

And finally,

最后，

let me give you just one example of how this vision is implemented.

让我举一个例子来说明 该愿景是如何落地的。

In June 2021,

就在 2021 年 6 月，

China decided to clamp down hard

中国决定一举取缔

on the power-hungry mining of cryptocurrencies.

对电力需求极大的加密货币“挖矿”。

Half of the world's capacity disappeared almost overnight.

世界上一半的产能 几乎在一夜之间消失。

Of course, to peak emissions before 2030 at a lower level,

当然，要在2030年之前 以较低的峰值水平实现达峰，

China must limit the unconstrained development of the "liang gao" industries.

中国必须限制 “两高”产业的盲目发展。

Recently, hundreds of such new projects have been put on pause,

最近，数百个此类新项目被按下暂停键，

waiting for new assessments on their impact on carbon emissions.

正在等待新的碳排放影响评价。

And the hope is that this type of change will not be linear

希望是，前述转变不会是线性的，

but instead follow a more exponential path.

而将是指数性增长。

As Zou Ji noted,

正如邹骥所言，

transformation might seem slow in the beginning,

转型的初期， 改变也许看起来十分缓慢，

like turning around a giant ship.

就像调转一艘巨轮。

But once the head is turned,

但一旦调转船头，

actions can accelerate in the right direction

行动就可以朝着正确的方向加速，

at an unprecedented speed.

以前所未有的速度前进。

Thank you.

谢谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）