Hongqiao Liu: Can China achieve its ambitious climate pledges? | TED Countdown

譯者: 至磊Zi Le 黃Ng 審譯者: Helen Chang

Last year, China's leader Xi Jinping made a historic pledge

去年，中國領導人習近平 做出了歷史性的承諾，

to fight global warming.

以對抗全球暖化。

China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030

中國會力圖在 2030 年前 達到二氧化碳排放量的峰值，

and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

並於 2060 年前達到碳中和。

But what do those commitments actually mean?

但這些諾言實際上代表什麼？

First, let's consider the magnitude of these pledges.

首先，讓我們想想這些承諾有多巨大。

They call for domestic climate actions at an unprecedented speed and scale.

它們需要中國國內的氣候行動 以史無前例的速度和規模進行。

Due to the size of China, they will also matter globally.

由於中國非常巨大， 這也會影響到全世界。

China is as large as the US,

中國的領土和美國一樣大，

with four times the population.

有著四倍的人口。

With double-digit annual economic growth in the past 40 years,

憑藉過去四十年來 每年呈雙位數的經濟成長，

China has become the world's second-largest economy in 2010.

中國已於 2010 年成為 世界第二大經濟體。

And the story of China being the world's largest emitter

而中國成為世界最大的碳排放國

is a fairly recent one.

則是相當最近的事。

When I was born,

當我出生時，

and you can see I'm not that old,

你們應該看得出來我不老，

the emissions in China were only half those of the US.

那時中國的碳排放量 只有美國的一半。

It only became the largest about 15 years ago.

大約十五年前中國才成為世界第一。

In 2019, China represents 28 percent of global CO2 emissions.

2019 年中國的二氧化碳排放量 占全球的百分之二十八。

Its emissions are so significant today

如今中國碳排放的影響十分顯著，

that going net-zero before 2060

若能於 2060 年前達成淨零排放，

could prevent 0.2 to 0.3-degrees of global warming

可以阻止 0.2 到 0.3 度的全球暖化，

and bring down 215 billion tons of CO2 emissions in the next 40 years.

在接下來的四十年裡 減少 2150 億噸的二氧化碳排放，

And that is equivalent to its cumulative emissions

相當於過去半世紀以來 中國全部的排放量。

in the past half century.

So why does China emit so much?

所以為什麼中國碳排放這麼高？

The phenomenal economic growth in China, like in many developed countries,

中國非凡的經濟成長 就跟許多已開發國家一樣，

was primarily driven by fossil fuels.

主要由化石燃料所驅動。

In 2020,

2020 年，

84 percent of China’s primary energy consumption came from fossil fuels.

中國初級能源的消耗量 有百分之八十四來自化石燃料。

The thirst for energy has made it the world's largest coal consumer,

對能源的渴望使其成為 世界最大的燃煤國家、

the second-largest oil consumer

第二大的石油消耗者，

and the single largest contributor to the growth in demand for gas.

也是天然氣需求推升的 最大單一貢獻者。

But there's another side to the story.

但這個故事有另一個面向。

In the past decade,

過去這十年，

China has also seen the world's fastest and the largest deployment

中國也是全世界最快、最大地部署

of almost anything clean, green and low-carbon.

潔淨、綠色、低碳能源的國家。

And that includes a long list of number ones

中國在非化石能源、 低碳交通、綠建築等各領域

in the field of non-fossil energy,

low-carbon transportation, green buildings and you just name it.

也取得很多世界第一。

In July 2021, China launched the world's largest emissions-trading scheme.

2021 年 7 月中國推行了 世界最大的排放權交易計畫。

The single act has now put a carbon price to 12 percent of global CO2 emissions.

單單這個舉動就對全球百分之十二的 二氧化碳排放賦予了碳定價。

China is also the largest producer and the processor

中國也是潔淨能源科技 所需的某些關鍵礦物

of a few critical minerals used for clean-energy technologies.

最大的生產者和加工者。

It also manufactures the world's most wind turbines and solar panels.

中國也製造了世界最多的 風電渦輪機和太陽能板。

According to Cambridge Econometrics, a UK-based consultancy,

據英國顧問公司劍橋計量經濟所述，

the huge scale of investment required for a net-zero China before 2060

中國在 2060 年前達成淨零排放 所需的超大規模投資

could create a “positive spillover effect” on other countries,

可為其他國家帶來正向的溢出效益，

bringing down the cost of clean energy all around the world.

降低全世界潔淨能源的成本。

And such an effect has already been observed

從太陽能板的成本 就已經可以觀察到這種效應。

in the cost of solar panels.

But the road to net-zero will not be an easy one.

但通往淨零排放的道路一定不好走。

As China's leader Xi Jinping said himself,

就如中國領導人習近平自己所言，

China must make "extraordinarily hard efforts."

中國需要「付出艱苦努力」。

One of the reasons is the “much shorter time span,” as Xi put it.

習近平說，其中一個原因是這 「遠遠短於發達國家所用時間」。

China has pledged to peak its emissions in the next nine years.

中國承諾在九年內達到碳排放的高峰。

It's worth noting, however,

然而值得注意的是，

this is considered“highly insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker,

「氣候追蹤行動」組職 和獨立的科學分析

an independent scientific analysis,

都認為這「高度不足」，

for the consistency of a three- to four- degree warmer [planet].

因為這仍會導致三到四度的暖化。

China should also bring down 10 to 11 billion tons

中國也必須將峰值的 每年二氧化碳排放量

of annual CO2 emissions at its peak level

減少 100 至 110 億噸

to net-zero in about 30 years.

才能在三十年內達成淨零。

That's my age, by the way.

順便說一下，我三十歲。

That would take the nations of the EU about 60, 70 years.

這在歐盟國家要花大約六、七十年。

However, unlike the EU,

然而與歐盟不同，

China faces a dual challenge.

中國面臨雙重挑戰。

In 2020, there were 600 million people living in China

2020 年中國有六億人

with a monthly income of about 140 US dollars or less.

每月所得在新臺幣 3900 元以下。

China wants to become a "great socialist modern country,"

中國想成為一個 「社會主義現代化強國」，

which translates to continuous urbanization and modernization.

需要持續的都市化和現代化。

Any tiny improvement

任何微小的改善

that lifts up the living standard of an average Chinese person

只要能提升中國平均每人生活水準，

must be multiplied by 1.4 billion.

就必須乘以十四億人口。

And that could mean a lot more emissions.

這代表增加很多排放。

Another challenge is transforming the economic structure.

另一項挑戰是經濟結構的轉變。

In 2020, 38 percent of China's GDP came from the secondary industry.

2020 年中國國內生產毛額 百分之三十八來自第二級產業。

Many of them are considered as "liang gao" industries in China,

其中許多在中國叫作「兩高」行業。

which means “dual high.”

意思是高耗能、高排放。

That's high energy consumption and high emissions.

These industries include coal power

這些產業包含燃煤發電、鋼鐵生產、

and the manufacturing of iron and steel,

cement, aluminium, chemicals, petrochemicals,

水泥、鋁、化工、石化，

you know, the hard-to-abate industries you've heard of.

就是你們聽到的那些 很難減少排放的產業。

And according to the International Energy Agency,

根據國際能源署，

the power and industry combined

電力和工業合計

add up to 84 percent of the nation's total CO2 emissions.

占了中國百分之八十四的 二氧化碳排放量。

For decades, China has been the so-called “factory of the world.”

數十年來中國是 所謂的「世界工廠」。

The emissions generated from such production,

這種生產過程產生的排放

known as "embedded carbon,"

稱為「內含碳排放」，

are calculated as domestic emissions in China

計入中國國內排放量，

rather than being ascribed to countries that import Chinese-made products.

而未歸給進口中國製造產品的各國。

But regardless of all those challenges, China has made its pledge.

但儘管存在這些挑戰， 中國已經許下承諾。

So how can China get there?

所以中國要怎麼實現呢？

China has pledged that it will not build any [more] coal power plants abroad,

中國承諾不會再在境外 興建燃煤發電廠，

and it will start to phase out coal consumption

也會從第十五個五年規劃

starting from the 15th Five-Year period.

開始逐步淘汰煤炭。

That's 2026 and onwards.

這個計畫從 2026 年開始。

Its greening up the energy structure

它會綠化能源結構

and ramping up electrification.

並加速電氣化。

According to experts from Tsinghua University,

根據清華大學專家的說法，

electricity can meet 79 percent of China's final energy consumption by 2060,

2060 年時電力可以達到中國 百分之七十九的最終能源消耗量，

if net-zero is achieved.

如果淨零實現的話。

And that's almost triple today's level.

這幾乎是目前的三倍之多。

The industry sectors we just talked about

我們剛剛討論的工業部門

are also going through structural reform,

也將要經歷結構改革、 燃料轉換和技術升級，

fuel switching and technology upgrades,

including starting pilots such as hydrogen-fueled steelmaking

包括開始測試氫燃料煉鋼

and the so-called negative emissions technologies,

和所謂的負排碳技術，

you're familiar with that, you know,

你們應該很熟悉，你知道，

carbon capture or storage, that type of thing.

像是碳捕集與封存，像那種東西。

And while China already has

而且儘管中國已經有了

the world's largest installed capacity for wind and solar,

世界最多的已安裝 風力和太陽能發電能力，

it has committed to double it over the next nine years.

中國還是保證在未來九年讓它翻倍。

A high-level review compiled by Energy Foundation China

一份中國能源基金會 以高標準匯編的報告

on China's pathway to two-degree and 1.5-degree

檢視中國通往 2 度和 1.5 度之路，

concludes that most of the scenarios project China to peak its emissions

結論是在絕大多數情境中， 預計中國達到排放峰值的時間

before the pledge deadline of 2030.

將早於所承諾的 2030 年，

It could be even before 2025.

甚至早於 2025 年。

The city of Beijing has already done that about 10 years ago.

北京市已經在十年前成功了。

And many high-emission provinces have also shown a sign of a slowdown.

許多高排放的省分 也顯示出減排的訊號。

Experts such as Zou Ji, a veteran environmental economist,

老練的環境經濟學家鄒驥等專家

believe that, compared to “Western countries,”

相信相較於「西方國家」，

China can achieve its climate pledges at a lower per-capita income

中國可在較低的人均收入 達成氣候承諾，

and more crucially,

更關鍵的是，

a shorter plateau to its emissions peak once it is achieved.

達到排放峰值後的平台期 將會比較短。

China’s leadership holds a clear view

中國的領導層清楚地看到

that the country must move away from the “GDP-oriented” pattern

這個國家必須捨棄 國內生產毛額導向的模式，

that “pollutes, then treats,”

不能繼續先汙染再補救，

to what it calls an “ecological civilization.”

而要走向他們所謂的「生態文明」。

Since 2010, China almost doubled its GDP per capita

2010 年至今中國幾乎使 人均國內生產毛額變成兩倍，

while largely maintaining a steady level of emissions per capita.

同時大致將人均排放量 維持在穩定的水準。

And finally,

最後，

let me give you just one example of how this vision is implemented.

讓我給你們一個例子， 看看這個願景要如何達成。

In June 2021,

2021 年 6 月，

China decided to clamp down hard

中國決定嚴禁耗能的加密貨幣挖礦。

on the power-hungry mining of cryptocurrencies.

Half of the world's capacity disappeared almost overnight.

世界的挖礦能力 幾乎在一夕間減少一半。

Of course, to peak emissions before 2030 at a lower level,

當然，若要在 2030 年前 達到較低的排放峰值，

China must limit the unconstrained development of the "liang gao" industries.

中國必須限制兩高行業的發展。

Recently, hundreds of such new projects have been put on pause,

最近，有數百項新計畫被喊停，

waiting for new assessments on their impact on carbon emissions.

等候對它們的碳排放進行重新評估。

And the hope is that this type of change will not be linear

希望這些改變不是線性成長，

but instead follow a more exponential path.

而是指數型成長。

As Zou Ji noted,

正如鄒驥所提到的，

transformation might seem slow in the beginning,

一開始的改變看起來可能很緩慢，

like turning around a giant ship.

就像讓大船轉向。

But once the head is turned,

但只要轉向完畢，

actions can accelerate in the right direction

正確的行動就會加快，

at an unprecedented speed.

達到史無前例的速度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）