Chen Qiufan: A sci-fi vision of life in 2041 | TED

翻译人员: Alvin Lee 校对人员: Helen Chang

现在是2041年。

世界比小说还要奇怪。

到处是令人惊叹的技术和科学进步。

It's 2041.

但仍有一件事无比熟悉。

The world is even stranger than fiction.

新冠仍然没有消失。

Full of astonishing technologies and scientific advances.

我们刚刚学会如何与之相处。

你已经 3 年没有出过家门。

But there's still one thing that is very familiar.

COVID is still with us.

那场 2021 年的疫病大流行伤害了你。

We've just figured out how to live with it.

你还是常常做恶梦， 梦见去世的爷爷奶奶，

You haven't been outside of your apartment for three years.

尽管有了很大进展，

The pandemic of 2021 traumatized you.

但感染病毒的恐惧 依旧让你足不出户，与世隔绝。

You still have the nightmares about losing your grandparents

你刚刚得知

你在一款沉浸式网游里认识的爱人

and despite advances,

刚刚飞越了半个地球来找你。

fear of infection has kept you inside and isolated.

但他现在被隔离在医院，

You've just found out

that the lover you met in an immersive online game

饱受病毒折磨，

那是一种新出现的致命变体。

has flown halfway around the world to meet you.

他也许还来不及见你就会死去。

But now he's quarantined in the hospital,

你决定冒险出门，

stricken with a new,

extremely virulent variant of the virus.

踏入外面那危险的世界。

It looks like he might die even before you met him.

还好有机器人可以帮你。

You decide you've got to venture out,

你的家政服务机器人 带你去坐一部特殊的电梯，

into the dangerous world beyond your four walls.

是专供机器人使用的，

能让你完全避开人群。

Luckily, there are robots to help you.

电梯里是各式各样的机器人。

Your housekeeping robot takes you to a special elevator

送快递的，

reserved for robots only,

做清洁的，照顾老人的，遛狗的，

allowing you to completely avoid people.

甚至墙上和天花板上 也爬满了消毒机器人，

It’s crammed with all manners of bots.

DeliveryBot,

它们长得像昆虫一样。

CleaningBot, SeniorCareBot, DogWalkingBot,

你第一次小心翼翼地踏上了街道，

even the walls and ceiling are covered with DisinfectionBots

警惕地注视着来来往往的行人。

你通过手机里的“平安圈” App 来确保自己安全。

that resemble insects.

You cautiously step out on the street for the first time,

eyeing the passers-by with suspicion.

如果有疑似病毒携带者离你太近，

它会震动或者发出嗡嗡声来警告你。

You rely on your Safety Circle app on your mobile device to keep you safe.

贴在你手腕内侧的薄膜型生物传感器

实时显示你的生理数据，

It alerts you with a vibration or buzz

包括你各种疫苗的过期时间，

if potential virus carriers step too close.

The biosensor membranes on your inner wrist

而你的已经过期 3 年了！

display real time physiological data,

没有这个电子身份证明，

including the expiration of various vaccines --

你肯定没法进到医院，

and yours are three years out of date!

甚至哪儿都去不了， 因为乘坐交通工具也要用到它。

Without this electric identification film,

同时，你的设备

you definitely can’t get to the hospital,

还实时显示你那奄奄一息的 爱人的身体状况，

or anywhere, as it’s needed to access transportation.

更让你无法冷静。

你是在跟时间赛跑。

Meanwhile, your device streams

你来得及吗？

real-time medical status of your dying lover,

你能赶到那儿吗？

你可以。

making it hard not to panic.

有了人工智能驱动的自动化程式，

You race against the clock.

就有可能为你的爱人 合成出一款特效药。

When you make it in time?

Can you even get there?

而像 AlphaFold 这样的技术

会将研发疫苗的周期 从几年缩短到几个星期。

You can.

Thanks to AI-automated processes,

it was possible to synthesize a quick-fix drug for your lover.

2041 年还会发生什么呢？

And technologies such as AlphaFold

反伪造探测器

will accelerate the speed of vaccine development from years to weeks.

将成为网络安全的标准配置之一。

So, what else could happen in 2041?

类似深度伪造这类技术的滥用，

传播了谣言和仇恨，

Anti-fake detectors are part of the standard configuration

造成了冲突和社会的分裂，

for cybersecurity.

这样的事不会再发生。

The abuse of technology such as deepfakes

真正的个性化学习

to spread rumors and hatred

最终与定制化的 AI 伙伴一同到来，

increase conflicts and tear the society apart,

激发创造力、

it's a thing of the past.

沟通和同理心，

Real personalized learning finally arrives

平等地对待每一个人。

教育技术不再加剧阶级分化。

with customized AI companions that calibrate creativity,

communication and compassion to each individual equally.

由自然语言处理和延展现实技术

Educational technology no longer exacerbates class divisions.

带来的数字双胞胎技术，

科比·布莱恩特、麦当娜 和惠特妮·休斯顿将得以重生，

With digital twins enabled by natural language processing

成为永生的虚拟角色，

and XR technologies,

为你带来定制化的娱乐体验。

Kobe Bryant, Maradona and Whitney Houston would be reborn

2041 年已经离我们很近了。

只有短短20年。

and become immortal virtual characters

幸运的话，在听我演讲的大多数人，

in your customized entertainment experience.

都可以看到那一天。

2041 is just around the corner.

因此，我才会与人工智能专家，

Only 20 years away.

And most of us watching this talk will, if lucky enough,

李开复博士一起

写一本书，将科幻现实

be alive to experience it.

与分析，不仅仅是技术层面的分析，

That's why, together with the artificial intelligence expert,

还包括那些推动技术进步的 重要想法，融合在一起。

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee,

I chose to write a book that blends science fiction realism

很多人一想到科幻小说里的 AI，

通常认为它们是反乌托邦的。

with the analysis, not just of technology,

比如 HAL 9000、 终结者、机械姬等等，

but also the big ideas that animate technology.

AI 总是给人感觉好胜心强、有敌意，

When most think of AI in science fiction,

it's often dystopian.

人类的未来堪忧。

HAL 9000, Terminator, Ex Machina --

但我们的书探索了不同的可能性。

The AI always feels competitive, hostile,

我们花了差不多 2 年时间

走访实验室和 AI 科学家、

the outlook for humanity bleak.

企业家、研究者和学者，

But with our book, we explore a different approach.

试图搞清楚未来 20 年 AI 发展

We spent almost two years

visiting labs and AI scientists,

最现实的路径。

我们为写这本书研究过的 AI 技术，

entrepreneurs, researchers and scholars,

包括自然语言处理、

trying to figure out the most realistic road map of AI development

GPT-3、增强混合虚拟现实、

over the next 20 years.

The AI technology we researched into for the book

计算机视觉、生成对抗网络、 脑机接口等。

range from natural-language processing

to GPT-3, to augmented mixed virtual reality,

我们将这些已经存在的技术

融入到具有预见性、 未来性的故事讲述中，

computer vision, GANs, brain-computer interfaces.

背景设置在全球各地 10 座不同的城市。

用这种方法来讲故事并不容易。

We put all this solid know-how

into predictions and futuristic storytellings,

但是开复和我并没有忽视 AI 的缺点和差别，

set in 10 different cities all around the world.

努力描述了一种未来，

It was not easy to tell stories in that way.

AI 技术可以对个人和社会 产生正面影响。

But without disregarding AI's faults and nuances,

我们希望描绘出不同文化背景、

Kai-Fu and I endeavor to portray a future

where AI technology could influence individuals and societies positively.

不同行业、不同身份的人，

如何应对 AI 在未来带来的冲击。

We wish to represent how individuals from disparate cultures

让我们回到如今，2021年。

and industries,

疫情仍然席卷全球。

with different identities would react to the future shock induced by AI.

人们依旧没有工作，

远离朋友、家人和大自然。

Let's get back to 2021, the present.

AI 真的可以解决所有这些问题吗？

The pandemic still spans the world.

The people are still unemployed,

从现代潜艇到激光枪，

isolated from friends, family and nature.

从手机到基因编辑技术，

Will AI really solve all these problems?

许多科学家都承认自己 是从科幻小说中得到的启发。

From modern submarine to the laser gun,

想象力的确可以改变世界。

from mobile phones to CRISPR,

所以对于我们想要创造的每一个未来，

many scientists will admit inspiration from fiction.

我们都应该先学会想象它。

通过科幻小说想象未来，

Imagination does shape the world.

So for every future we wish to create,

我们甚至可以参与其中，带来改变，

积极塑造我们的现实世界。

we must first learn to imagine it.

By imagining the future through science fiction,

谢谢。

we can even step in, make changes

and actively play a role in shaping our reality.

Thank you.