Chen Qiufan: A sci-fi vision of life in 2041 | TED

譯者: Pooi Ling Ng 審譯者: Helen Chang

It's 2041.

現在是2041年。

The world is even stranger than fiction.

世界與科幻相比較爲陌生，

Full of astonishing technologies and scientific advances.

到處充滿著驚人的技術和科學進步。

But there's still one thing that is very familiar.

可是，有一樣東西我們是熟悉的。

COVID is still with us.

新冠肺炎還與我們同在。

We've just figured out how to live with it.

我們剛剛發現如何與它共存。

You haven't been outside of your apartment for three years.

你已經沒有三年沒有離開你的公寓了。

The pandemic of 2021 traumatized you.

2021年的流行病給你帶來了創傷。

You still have the nightmares about losing your grandparents

你還在失去你的祖父母的悲傷裏。

and despite advances,

儘管有很多科技進展，

fear of infection has kept you inside and isolated.

擔心被傳染的恐懼 把你關了起來與世隔離。

You've just found out

你剛發現，

that the lover you met in an immersive online game

你在沉浸式網絡遊戲中 遇到的那個愛人

has flown halfway around the world to meet you.

已經飛越半個地球來與你相遇。

But now he's quarantined in the hospital,

可是，他現在在醫院隔離，

stricken with a new,

被一個新的、毒力極強的 變種病毒感染了。

extremely virulent variant of the virus.

It looks like he might die even before you met him.

看起來，他甚至可能會 在你遇見他之前死亡。

You decide you've got to venture out,

你決定你必須冒險

into the dangerous world beyond your four walls.

離開這裏的四面墻、 走到外面危險的世界。

Luckily, there are robots to help you.

幸好，有機器幫你。

Your housekeeping robot takes you to a special elevator

你的家政機器人帶你到 一個機器人專用的

reserved for robots only,

特殊的電梯，

allowing you to completely avoid people.

讓你完全避開人群。

It’s crammed with all manners of bots.

這裡擠滿了各種各樣的機器人。

DeliveryBot,

送貨機器人、

CleaningBot, SeniorCareBot, DogWalkingBot,

打掃機器人、照顧長者的 機器人、遛狗機器人，

even the walls and ceiling are covered with DisinfectionBots

甚至牆壁和天花板

that resemble insects.

都被像昆蟲的消毒機器人覆蓋。

You cautiously step out on the street for the first time,

你第一次小心翼翼地走在街上，

eyeing the passers-by with suspicion.

用懷疑的目光看著路人。

You rely on your Safety Circle app on your mobile device to keep you safe.

你依賴你的移動設備上的 安全圈應用程序來確保你的安全。

It alerts you with a vibration or buzz

如果有潛在的病毒攜帶者走近你，

if potential virus carriers step too close.

它會通過振動或嗡嗡聲提醒你。

The biosensor membranes on your inner wrist

在你的手腕內側的生物傳感器膜

display real time physiological data,

顯示實時生理數據，

including the expiration of various vaccines --

包括各種到期的疫苗，

and yours are three years out of date!

而你的已經過時三年了！

Without this electric identification film,

沒有這個電子識別膜，

you definitely can’t get to the hospital,

你絕對不能去醫院，

or anywhere, as it’s needed to access transportation.

甚至任何需要交通的地方。

Meanwhile, your device streams

同時，你的設備正在播放著

real-time medical status of your dying lover,

你垂死愛人的實時醫療狀況，

making it hard not to panic.

讓你很難不驚慌。

You race against the clock.

你正在與時間競跑。

When you make it in time?

你可以按時完成嗎？

Can you even get there?

你可以到達那裡嗎？

You can.

你可以。

Thanks to AI-automated processes,

這一切歸功於人工智慧自動化流程。

it was possible to synthesize a quick-fix drug for your lover.

它可以給你的愛人製造特效藥。

And technologies such as AlphaFold

AlphaFold等技術

will accelerate the speed of vaccine development from years to weeks.

將加快疫苗的速度 從幾年到幾週的發展。

So, what else could happen in 2041?

還有哪些會在2041年發生的呢？

Anti-fake detectors are part of the standard configuration

防偽檢測器將會是網絡安全的 一部分標準配置。

for cybersecurity.

The abuse of technology such as deepfakes

濫用深度偽造等技術

to spread rumors and hatred

來散佈謠言與仇恨，

increase conflicts and tear the society apart,

增加矛盾以及分裂社會，

it's a thing of the past.

這都會是以前才會發生的事情。

Real personalized learning finally arrives

真正的個性化學習終於到來。

with customized AI companions that calibrate creativity,

定制的人工智慧同伴 會對每個人一視同仁，

communication and compassion to each individual equally.

並可以校準創造力，溝通與同情。

Educational technology no longer exacerbates class divisions.

教育技術不再加劇階級分化。

With digital twins enabled by natural language processing

通過自然語言處理和擴展現實技術

and XR technologies,

和啟用數字孿生,

Kobe Bryant, Maradona and Whitney Houston would be reborn

科比·布萊恩特，馬拉多納 和惠特尼·休斯頓將重生，

and become immortal virtual characters

成為你的定制娛樂體驗中的 不朽的虛擬人物。

in your customized entertainment experience.

2041 is just around the corner.

2041年將快到來。

Only 20 years away.

僅僅20年之後。

And most of us watching this talk will, if lucky enough,

如果足夠幸運，大多數在 看這個演講的人，

be alive to experience it.

將會活著去體驗這一切。

That's why, together with the artificial intelligence expert,

這就是為什麼，我與人工智慧 專家，李開復博士，

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee,

I chose to write a book that blends science fiction realism

寫出了不僅融合了科幻現實主義

with the analysis, not just of technology,

與技術分析，

but also the big ideas that animate technology.

同時還有動畫技術 偉大想法的一本書。

When most think of AI in science fiction,

大多數人想到科幻小說中的人工智慧

it's often dystopian.

通常是反烏托邦的。

HAL 9000, Terminator, Ex Machina --

哈爾9000、終結者、機械姬等，

The AI always feels competitive, hostile,

人工智慧總會讓我們感覺 有競爭、敵意，

the outlook for humanity bleak.

甚至覺得人類的前景一片黯淡。

But with our book, we explore a different approach.

我們為這本書探索不同的方法。

We spent almost two years

我們花了將近兩年的時間

visiting labs and AI scientists,

走訪實驗室和訪問人工智慧科學家，

entrepreneurs, researchers and scholars,

企業家、研究人員和學者，

trying to figure out the most realistic road map of AI development

試圖找出在未來的20年裡 最現實的人工智慧發展路線圖。

over the next 20 years.

The AI technology we researched into for the book

我們這本書所研究的 人工智慧技術範圍包括

range from natural-language processing

從自然語言處理，

to GPT-3, to augmented mixed virtual reality,

到GPT-3，到增強混合虛擬現實，

computer vision, GANs, brain-computer interfaces.

計算機視覺、生成 對抗網絡、腦機接口。

We put all this solid know-how

我們把所有這些紮實的專業知識

into predictions and futuristic storytellings,

帶進預測和未來派的故事，

set in 10 different cities all around the world.

故事設置在世界各地 十個不同的城市。

It was not easy to tell stories in that way.

以這種方式講故事，其實並不容易。

But without disregarding AI's faults and nuances,

在沒有漠视人工智慧的缺點 和細微差別的前提下，

Kai-Fu and I endeavor to portray a future

我和開復努力描繪

where AI technology could influence individuals and societies positively.

人工智慧技術如何可以正面地影響 個人和社會的未來。

We wish to represent how individuals from disparate cultures

我們希望涵蓋來自不同文化、

and industries,

不同的行業、

with different identities would react to the future shock induced by AI.

不同身份的人對人工智慧 引發的未來衝擊該有的反應。

Let's get back to 2021, the present.

讓我們回到現在，2021 年。

The pandemic still spans the world.

疫情仍在全球蔓延。

The people are still unemployed,

許多人還是失業，

isolated from friends, family and nature.

與朋友、家人，以及大自然隔離。

Will AI really solve all these problems?

人工智慧真的會解決嗎 所有這些問題？

From modern submarine to the laser gun,

從現代潛艇到激光槍，

from mobile phones to CRISPR,

從手機到CRISPR（基因剪輯），

many scientists will admit inspiration from fiction.

許多科學家會承認 靈感來自小說。

Imagination does shape the world.

想像力確實塑造了世界。

So for every future we wish to create,

所以對於我們希望創造的每一個未來，

we must first learn to imagine it.

我們必須學習想像它。

By imagining the future through science fiction,

通過科幻想像未來，

we can even step in, make changes

我們甚至可以介入，做出改變，

and actively play a role in shaping our reality.

積極發揮作用來塑造我們的現實。

Thank you.

謝謝。