What Happens to Gas Stations When the World Goes Electric? | Emily Grubert | TED

翻译人员: Chen Xuan 校对人员: Gia Hwang

Picture this.

想象一下，

You're in your car and you're getting worried.

你忧心忡忡地坐在车上，

You were really, really relying on that fuel station being open.

期待前方的加油站仍在营业。

Now you're not sure you're going to make it

你没把握自己能否开到

to the next one you see on your map.

地图上看到的下一个加油站，

And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.

况且这附近的加油站出了名的不靠谱。

You definitely don't have enough range

你的车没那么多油，

to make it to the one that you know is usually working

能供你开到熟悉的加油站；

or even the one that at least has decent customer service

或是那个即便关门了，

on their help line when it's down.

热线电话也能照常提供服务的加油站。

So you slow way down to conserve energy

为了省油，你减速了，

and sigh when you see a giant hill coming up on the freeway ahead of you.

当你看到前方高速公路

出现一座巨大山包时，你叹了口气。

The way people are driving,

就高速道上的安全车速而言，

there is no way you're going to make it up this hill at a safe highway speed

若你按那个速度开到山上的高速路，

without killing your energy efficiency.

那你的车不可能还开的下去。

It's hot out, but you turn off your AC

虽然外面很热，但你关了空调，

and remind yourself again that charging your phone in the car outlet

再次提醒自己插座上充着电的手机

doesn't actually use that much energy.

用不了多少电。

"Man," you think to yourself,

你脑中想着：“唉，

"I remember when this was a problem for EVs.

我知道这是开新能源汽车会碰到的问题。

But when I bought this car,

但我买这车那会儿，

I just didn't think finding gasoline

确实没想过加汽油

was ever going to be this much of a problem."

也能带来这么多的麻烦。”

(Laughter and applause)

（笑声伴着掌声）

If we succeed at reaching international climate goals,

如果我们达成国际气候目标，

the fossil fuel infrastructure systems

目前的化石燃料基础设施系统

that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption

承担了全球能耗的 80%，

will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.

在未来几十年里，即使不能 全部退役，也将大部分退役。

The global dominance of fossil fuels

化石燃料在全世界的主导地位

and the global emergency of climate change

和气候变化的全球紧急状况，

means that this retirement imperative exists everywhere,

意味着世界各地必须淘汰那些基础设施，

whether infrastructure is relatively old --

不管它们有多旧，

like in the US, where I work on these issues

比如美国，我研究的这些议题

and where most of my examples come from --

并取得大量案例的地方；

or relatively newer,

也不管它们有多新，

as in many countries with more recent industrialization.

比如许多国家近年来 因工业化所新建的设施。

What I'm talking about is big infrastructure,

我所指的是大型基础设施，

like power plants and refineries,

比如发电厂和炼油厂，

but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars,

但也包括了加油站、燃油汽车、

stoves and furnaces.

锅炉和熔炉。

Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high-hazard industries

化石燃料基础设施系统复杂， 涉及到许多高风险产业，

that need to be able to continue to operate safely

它们必须安全运作下去，

until the new system is completely ready to take over,

直到新的系统足以将它们替代为止，

including during emergencies complicated by climate change.

包括在因气候变化而复杂化的应急期间。

Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.

让这些系统消失将具有 极大的破坏性和危险性，

We'd expect disproportionate harm

我们预计将造成不成比例的伤害，

to overburdened and underserved communities

特别是负担过重和服务不足的社区，

who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices,

他们无法从飞涨的价格、

abandoned remediation plans

废弃的修复计划、

and declining access to energy services.

和日益减少的能源服务中逃离。

This means ongoing fossil expenditures

这意味着持续的化石燃料支出，

and a reliance on highly trained workers

以及依赖那些训练有素的工人，

in industries that might not outlast their careers,

而这些工人的职业生涯可能不会长久；

with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries

同时关注并尽快淘汰这些行业，

as quickly as possible to address climate change

以解决气候变化

and a host of other environmental injustices.

和其他环境不公正问题。

This is why we need to plan.

因此，我们需要制定计划。

And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world

目前，世界各地几乎都找不到

where these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system

一个迫切的方案能够逐步用清洁能源系统

while phasing in the clean energy system exist.

取代化石能源系统。

When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is,

一谈到气候目标，我就想问这么个问题：

“If we actually believed we were going to succeed,

“如果我们确信自己能够成功，

what would we need to be doing right now?”

那么我们现在需要做些什么呢？”

The time between now and success

现在与成功之间的时间差，

is where this gets real and very difficult.

让这一问题变得真实并且困难。

Sara Hastings-Simon and I call this the mid-transition.

萨拉·黑斯廷-西蒙(Sara Hastings-Simon) 和我把这叫做中间转型期，

And even under a best-case scenario, it will probably last for decades.

运气够好的话，可能会持续几十年。

During the mid-transition,

在中间转型期，

the clean energy system and the fossil energy system

清洁能源系统和化石燃料系统

are both too small to fulfill all of the energy needs we have,

均规模过小无法满足 我们所有的能源需求，

but big enough that they can't really operate without constraining each other.

但是足够大，无法在不相互 制约的情况下真正运行。

Also, the mid-transition overlaps with the climate transition.

另外，中间转型与气候变化有所重叠，

This means we'd expect the systems we have now to become less functional

意味着现在拥有的系统性能将会下降，

as they operate further and further outside of design parameters.

因为它们在运作时逐渐偏离了设计参数。

And it also means we don't entirely know

这也说明我们并不了解

what the new systems will need to be able to handle.

新系统需要什么条件才能正常运作。

Another issue here is that we'd also expect

另一个问题是，

that the transitioning system will just generally work less well

我们还预计转型系统通常表现

than either the stable starting point or the stable end point.

劣于它处于稳定开始期或结束期的表现。

As long as both systems are operating at scale,

但凡两个系统要大规模运作，

we can't optimize for either one's needs.

我们就无法完全满足任意一方的需求。

People are often willing to accept some level of problem

人们常常愿意接受一定程度的代价，

in order to enable a shared future vision.

实现共享未来的愿景。

But trust in that vision will be extraordinarily fragile

但对这一愿景的信任会变得异常脆弱，

when it’s required for decades,

因为它需要花费几十年的时间，

while climate impacts are making everything scarier

特别是当气候影响让一切变得触目惊心、

and while we're visibly dismantling infrastructure

当我们大量拆除

that people remember as functional.

人们记忆中实用的基础设施的时候。

As we plan,

在我们的规划过程中，

keeping a clear and focused commitment on people first and foremost

保持明确和重点突出的承诺，

首先是以人为本，

and ensuring that these are community-led projects

并确保这些项目由社区主导的

will be critical.

将至关重要。

One of the nice things about existing energy infrastructure is it exists.

现有能源基础设施的一点好处 在于它们的存在本身。

So you can go to a power plant break room

你可以走进发电厂的休息室，

and chat up people about how long they expect to keep working

和工作人员聊聊他们还预计工作多少年，

or which bits of the plant site might need remediation.

或是发电厂哪些地方该检修了。

This means planning can be very, very specific

这意味着计划可以做到非常具体，

and guided by the expertise of people that are in these places.

并由这些地方的技术人士进行指导。

Who needs a job if the power plant closes?

要是发电厂关停了，谁得去另找工作？

Does everyone in town have safe temperatures in their homes?

城里的每个家听室温都合适吗？

Which gas stations need to stay open longer than they're profitable

哪些加油站的营业时间 需要超过其盈利能力，

to make sure that everybody can get to work

以确保在替代交通系统成熟的同时，

while alternative transportation systems mature?

每个人都能去上班？

How much extra funding do you need for the library

你需要给图书馆增加多少资金，

if tax revenues start to decline?

才能补上税收减少带来的落差？

Although good transition plans need to be deeply community-embedded,

尽管良好的转型计划需要深入社区，

the scale and the impact of the energy system

但由于能源系统的规模和影响

demands some level of centralized coordination.

需要一定程度的集中协调。

One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.

一种策略是设定化石能源 设施退役的最后期限。

Ample notice, say a decade,

充分的告知社区，比如十年，

gives communities enough time to create and implement plans,

让社区有足够的时间来制定和实施计划，

and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence

并且法定的结束日期让人们有足够的信心

to commit to what can be an intense process.

来实现这个紧张的转型过程。

I showed that in the United States,

我展示了美国要求

requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035,

所有化石燃料发电厂 在 2035 年之前关闭，

which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target,

这是拜登总统的电力 部门制定的脱碳目标，

would actually allow the large majority of them

实际上会让其中的大部分（电厂）

达到或超过预计的寿命，

to meet or exceed a typical lifespan,

potentially giving communities some confidence

可能会给社区一些信心，

that these deadlines are manageable.

即这些最后期限是可控的。

That may not be true in places with much newer infrastructure

在基础设施较新的地方， 情况可能并非如此，

and so the conversation about how to choose these deadlines

所以关于如何选择这些截止日期的讨论

would look quite different.

看起来会大不相同。

But in general,

但总体而言，

being honest with people about what's coming,

坦诚地告诉人们即将发生的事情，

with enough time and support to do something about it

才能有足够的时间和支持来做出改变，

can be really transformative,

这可以带来切实的变革，

but it does require a commitment to the end point

但这确实需要对最后期限的承诺，

and to proactively ensuring people have what they need

并积极确保人们拥有他们在过渡阶段

to thrive alongside transition.

不断成长所需的东西。

That is what earns and maintains trust.

这么做才能赢得并留住人们的信任，

Not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.

而不是用模糊的计划逐渐远离排放目标。

The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable, but common.

计划外过渡替代方案不可取，但很常见。

Notably, this is what we would expect to see

值得注意的是，这是我们预计会看到的，

if we just rely on clean energy becoming cheap enough

如果我们只想着怎么让清洁能源变便宜

to displace fossil energy systems.

来取代化石能源系统。

What I've observed over the years is that facilities might close suddenly

这些年来我观察到的是，

这些基础设施可能会突然关闭，

并伴随着一轮裁员和宣布破产，

with a round of layoffs and a bankruptcy notification

with very little notice and no plan for what comes next.

而几乎没有任何通知， 也没有下一步的计划。

Several years ago, I was working on a survey in a coal mining community,

几年前，我在一个采矿区进行调查，

and the morning my survey hit people's mailboxes,

当那天早上我的调查问卷 寄到人们邮箱里时，

about 500 coal miners were suddenly laid off.

大概 500 名煤矿工突然失业了。

Just four US coal mining companies used bankruptcy

仅在 2012 年至 2017 年间，

to avoid about five billion dollars in pensions

就有四家美国煤矿公司利用破产

规避了约 50 亿美元的养老金

and environmental cleanup obligations just between 2012 and 2017.

和环境清理义务。

The coal industry in the United States is actually pretty small,

美国采矿业规模其实很小，

now providing about 11 percent of primary energy,

目前只提供约 11% 的初级能源，

down from 18 percent a decade ago.

低于十年前的 18%。

We're talking about successfully retiring and replacing infrastructure

我们现在谈的是，在我到退休年龄之前，

成功退役并更换承担全球和美国

that supports 80 percent of energy use globally and in the United States

all before I reach retirement age.

80% 能源使用的基础设施。

Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time,

规划能源转型

是一项需要时间的道德责任，

but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable future

但也为创造一个公正、 可持续的未来提供了机会，

that corrects the harms of the past.

从而纠正往昔的过错。

Collaboration and a laser-like focus

团结协作并密切关注，

on ensuring people have what we need to succeed through this transition

确保人们充足准备以顺利度过转型期，

will be critical,

这一点尤为重要，

particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.

特别是转型期恰逢气候灾难时更应如此。

What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?

如果我们相信可以成功，该做些什么呢？

Anticipating the bumps and planning for success

预判问题并成功规划，

is the path to a just, decarbonized and sustainable world.

是实现公正、去碳化 和可持续世界的必由之路。

Thank you.

感谢各位。

(Applause)

（掌声）