What Happens to Gas Stations When the World Goes Electric? | Emily Grubert | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Picture this.

想像一下：

You're in your car and you're getting worried.

你在你的車上，你開始擔心。

You were really, really relying on that fuel station being open.

你非常仰賴那個加油站還有在營業，

Now you're not sure you're going to make it

現在你不確定你能撐到 地圖上的下一個加油站。

to the next one you see on your map.

And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.

遠近皆知這個地區的 加油站都不可靠。

You definitely don't have enough range

你知道有個加油站平常會營業，

to make it to the one that you know is usually working

但你的燃料肯定不夠讓你撐到那裡，

or even the one that at least has decent customer service

甚至撐不到至少在沒營業時

還有不錯的客服專線的那一家。

on their help line when it's down.

So you slow way down to conserve energy

所以你把速度減得 非常慢以節省能源，

and sigh when you see a giant hill coming up on the freeway ahead of you.

而在看到接下來要爬上 大山丘的上坡路時不住嘆息。

The way people are driving,

就人開車的方式來說，不可能 在不折損能源效益的情況下

there is no way you're going to make it up this hill at a safe highway speed

without killing your energy efficiency.

以安全的高速公路車速開上山丘。

It's hot out, but you turn off your AC

外面很熱，但你把冷氣關了，

and remind yourself again that charging your phone in the car outlet

並再次提醒自己，用車充幫手機充電

doesn't actually use that much energy.

不會用那麼多能源。

"Man," you think to yourself,

「天，」你心想：

"I remember when this was a problem for EVs.

「我記得當年電動車還有這個問題，

But when I bought this car,

但我買這台車時，並不覺得找到汽油

I just didn't think finding gasoline

was ever going to be this much of a problem."

會這麼麻煩。」

(Laughter and applause)

（笑聲及掌聲）

If we succeed at reaching international climate goals,

如果我們成功達到國際氣候目標，

the fossil fuel infrastructure systems

原本支撐約 80% 全球能源消耗的

that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption

化石燃料基礎設施系統的

will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.

全部，或至少大部分，

都會在接下來幾十年內退役。

The global dominance of fossil fuels

化石燃料在全球佔有支配地位， 再加上全球急著處理氣候變遷，

and the global emergency of climate change

means that this retirement imperative exists everywhere,

意味著這些系統的退役 在各地都必然會發生，

whether infrastructure is relatively old --

不論是相對較老舊的 基礎設施——比如美國的，

like in the US, where I work on these issues

我就是在美國處理這些問題， 我的例子也大部分來自美國，

and where most of my examples come from --

or relatively newer,

或相對較新的基礎設施， 如許多近期工業化的國家。

as in many countries with more recent industrialization.

What I'm talking about is big infrastructure,

我講的是大型的基礎設施，

like power plants and refineries,

比如發電廠和煉油廠，

but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars,

也包括加油站和民眾的汽車、

stoves and furnaces.

爐灶，和暖氣爈。

Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high-hazard industries

化石燃料基礎設施是個 複雜的高危險產業網路，

that need to be able to continue to operate safely

必須要能持續以安全的方式運作，

until the new system is completely ready to take over,

直到新的系統 能完全準備好取代它，

including during emergencies complicated by climate change.

包括要能因應因氣候變遷 而複雜化的緊急狀況。

Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.

就只是讓這些系統消失， 會帶來極大的破壞和危險。

We'd expect disproportionate harm

我們預期，負荷過重 且得不到充份服務的社區

to overburdened and underserved communities

會受到不成比例的傷害，

who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices,

它們沒有選擇必須面對飆升的價格、

abandoned remediation plans

修復計畫被廢棄，

and declining access to energy services.

且越來越難取得能源服務。

This means ongoing fossil expenditures

這就意味著化石的開銷持續不斷，

and a reliance on highly trained workers

再加上仰賴高素質的工作者，

in industries that might not outlast their careers,

其所屬產業可能比 他們的職涯更短命，

with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries

同時又專注在逐步淘汰 同樣這些產業，

as quickly as possible to address climate change

越快越好，以應付氣候變遷

and a host of other environmental injustices.

以及一大堆其他的環境不公正問題。

This is why we need to plan.

這就是為什麼我們需要計畫。

And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world

如今基本上世界上沒有任何地方

where these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system

存在有我們迫切需要的這種計畫，

可以逐步淘汰化石系統同時 逐步納入乾淨能源系統。

while phasing in the clean energy system exist.

When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is,

談到氣候目標，我想問的問題是：

“If we actually believed we were going to succeed,

「如果我們真的相信我們會成功，

what would we need to be doing right now?”

那我們現在需要做什麼？」

The time between now and success

從現在到成功之間的時期，

is where this gets real and very difficult.

就是這個現實出現 且變得非常棘手的時候。

Sara Hastings-Simon and I call this the mid-transition.

莎菈‧海斯汀—賽門 和我稱它為轉型期。

And even under a best-case scenario, it will probably last for decades.

在最好的情況下，轉型期 可能也要持續數十年。

During the mid-transition,

在轉型期，乾淨能源系統 和化石能源系統兩者

the clean energy system and the fossil energy system

are both too small to fulfill all of the energy needs we have,

都還太小，無法滿足 我們所有的能源需求，

but big enough that they can't really operate without constraining each other.

但又還是大到在運作上 一定會限制彼此的程度，

Also, the mid-transition overlaps with the climate transition.

此外，轉型期和氣候轉型重疊。

This means we'd expect the systems we have now to become less functional

這意味著，我們預期現有的 系統會變得功能較差，

as they operate further and further outside of design parameters.

因為它們的運作越來越 脫離最初設計的參數。

And it also means we don't entirely know

也意味著我們不完全知道 新系統需要什麼才能罩得住。

what the new systems will need to be able to handle.

Another issue here is that we'd also expect

另一個問題是，我們也預期

that the transitioning system will just generally work less well

轉型中的系統一般來說 不會運作得那麼好，

than either the stable starting point or the stable end point.

不如穩定的起始點或穩定的結束點。

As long as both systems are operating at scale,

只要兩種系統的運作規模都很大，

we can't optimize for either one's needs.

我們就無法針對其中 一種的需求來做最佳化。

People are often willing to accept some level of problem

為了實現共同的未來願景，

大家通常會願意接受 一定程度的問題。

in order to enable a shared future vision.

But trust in that vision will be extraordinarily fragile

但如果對那願景的信任 需要持續長達數十年，

when it’s required for decades,

它會變得很脆弱，

while climate impacts are making everything scarier

這數十年間氣候影響 會讓一切變得更可怕，

and while we're visibly dismantling infrastructure

同時又可以看到我們在拆除 大家印象中有用的基礎設施。

that people remember as functional.

As we plan,

我們做計畫時，

keeping a clear and focused commitment on people first and foremost

要清楚且專注地承諾 會把人放在首位，

and ensuring that these are community-led projects

並保證這些方案都會讓社區來主導，

will be critical.

這兩點很重要。

One of the nice things about existing energy infrastructure is it exists.

既有能源基礎設施的好處 之一就是它已經存在了。

So you can go to a power plant break room

所以你可以到發電廠的休息室

and chat up people about how long they expect to keep working

和那裡的人談談他們 預期能持續工作多久，

or which bits of the plant site might need remediation.

或者發電廠有哪些地方需要修復。

This means planning can be very, very specific

這意味著計畫要做得非常明確，

and guided by the expertise of people that are in these places.

並由真正在這些地方 工作的人的專業來引導，

Who needs a job if the power plant closes?

如果發電廠關了，誰需要新工作？

Does everyone in town have safe temperatures in their homes?

鎮上的每個人家中 都有安全的溫度嗎？

Which gas stations need to stay open longer than they're profitable

哪些加油站在不能獲利之後 還需要繼續維持營運，

to make sure that everybody can get to work

以確保在替代交通系統成熟的 過程中大家都還能去工作？

while alternative transportation systems mature?

How much extra funding do you need for the library

如果稅收收入下降， 圖書館會需要多少額外資金？

if tax revenues start to decline?

Although good transition plans need to be deeply community-embedded,

雖然好的轉型計畫 必須要深深融入社區，

the scale and the impact of the energy system

能源系統的規模和影響仍然需要

demands some level of centralized coordination.

某種程度的中央協調。

One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.

這裡可用的策略之一是為 化石資產的退役設下時限。

Ample notice, say a decade,

時間充裕的通知，比如十年，

gives communities enough time to create and implement plans,

能讓社區有足夠時間 去創造和實施計畫。

and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence

而立法明訂的截止日 會讓大家有足夠信心

to commit to what can be an intense process.

願意投入到也許會很緊繃的過程。

I showed that in the United States,

我證明了在美國，

requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035,

要求所有用化石燃料的發電機 在 2035 年前停止運作，

which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target,

即拜登總統電力部門的脫碳目標，

would actually allow the large majority of them

實際上會讓它們大部分

to meet or exceed a typical lifespan,

都能用到一般的使用年限或超過，

potentially giving communities some confidence

可能可以給社區一些信心， 相信這期限是可行的。

that these deadlines are manageable.

That may not be true in places with much newer infrastructure

在基礎設施較新的地方就不見得，

and so the conversation about how to choose these deadlines

所以談論如何決定 期限的談話會相當不同。

would look quite different.

But in general,

但一般來說，

being honest with people about what's coming,

誠實讓大家知道接下來會如何，

with enough time and support to do something about it

給他們足夠的時間和支援 讓他們能夠因應，

can be really transformative,

就可以帶來真正的轉變，

but it does require a commitment to the end point

但必須要有自始至終的承諾，

and to proactively ensuring people have what they need

並主動提前確保大家擁有所需，

to thrive alongside transition.

能在轉型時期茁壯成長。

That is what earns and maintains trust.

要這麼做才能掙得和維持信任。

Not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.

而不是提出遙不可及的排放 目標和模糊的實施計畫。

The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable, but common.

未規劃的轉型方案 是不可接受的，卻很常見。

Notably, this is what we would expect to see

值得注意的是，如果我們 只仰賴乾淨能源變得夠便宜

if we just rely on clean energy becoming cheap enough

來取代化石能源系統，我們 很可能就會看到這樣的現象。

to displace fossil energy systems.

What I've observed over the years is that facilities might close suddenly

這些年來我觀察到， 設施可能會突然關閉，

接著就是一波裁員和破產通知，

with a round of layoffs and a bankruptcy notification

with very little notice and no plan for what comes next.

幾乎沒有事前通知， 對後續也沒有計畫。

Several years ago, I was working on a survey in a coal mining community,

數年前，我針對 一個煤礦社區做調查，

and the morning my survey hit people's mailboxes,

我的調查寄到大家 收件箱的那個早晨，

about 500 coal miners were suddenly laid off.

有約五百名煤礦礦工突然被解僱，

Just four US coal mining companies used bankruptcy

有四家美國的煤礦公司運用破產

to avoid about five billion dollars in pensions

來閃避約五十億美金的退休金

and environmental cleanup obligations just between 2012 and 2017.

及環境清理的義務，這只是 2012 到 2017 年間的數字。

The coal industry in the United States is actually pretty small,

美國的煤礦產業其實相當小，

now providing about 11 percent of primary energy,

現在，主要能源 有約 11% 來自於此，

down from 18 percent a decade ago.

比十年前的 18% 更少。

We're talking about successfully retiring and replacing infrastructure

我們在談的是要成功 讓基礎設施退役並取代它們，

全球和美國的能源使用 有 80% 要靠它們支撐，

that supports 80 percent of energy use globally and in the United States

all before I reach retirement age.

全要在我到退休年齡之前完成。

Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time,

為轉型做計畫是種 倫理責任，需要花時間，

but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable future

但也能創造機會， 打造公正、永續的未來，

that corrects the harms of the past.

修正過去的傷害。

Collaboration and a laser-like focus

合作並非常專注在確保大家都能擁有

on ensuring people have what we need to succeed through this transition

成功度過這次轉型所需要的一切

will be critical,

極其重要，

particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.

特別是當這次轉型 和氣候悲劇正好撞在一起。

What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?

如果我們相信我們會成功， 我們現在要做什麼？

Anticipating the bumps and planning for success

為可能發生的困難做準備 並為成功做計畫

is the path to a just, decarbonized and sustainable world.

能引領我們邁向公正、 脫碳、永續的世界。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）