What Happens to Gas Stations When the World Goes Electric? | Emily Grubert | TED

45,465 views ・ 2023-03-23

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: BORAM KANG κ²€ν† : Hyeryung Kim
00:08
Picture this.
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상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
00:10
You're in your car and you're getting worried.
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μžλ™μ°¨μ— νƒ”λŠ”λ° 걱정이 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:14
You were really, really relying on that fuel station being open.
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μ£Όμœ μ†Œκ°€ μ•ˆ μ—΄μ—ˆμœΌλ©΄ ν°μΌμ΄κ±°λ“ μš”.
00:19
Now you're not sure you're going to make it
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λ‹€μŒ μ£Όμœ μ†ŒκΉŒμ§€ 갈 μ—°λ£Œκ°€ μΆ©λΆ„μΉ˜ μ•ŠμœΌλ‹ˆκΉŒμš”.
00:21
to the next one you see on your map.
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00:22
And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.
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그리고 이 μ§€μ—­μ˜ μ£Όμœ μ†ŒλŠ” 믿을 수 μ—†κΈ°λ‘œ μ•…λͺ… 높은 κ³³μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:26
You definitely don't have enough range
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μ£Όν–‰ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 거리가
00:29
to make it to the one that you know is usually working
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ν‰μ†Œμ™€ 달리 μΆ©λΆ„μΉ˜ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:31
or even the one that at least has decent customer service
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심지어 μ°¨κ°€ κ³ μž₯λ‚˜λ©΄ μ΅œμ†Œν•œμ˜ μ„œλΉ„μŠ€λ₯Ό 받을 κ³³κΉŒμ§€
00:34
on their help line when it's down.
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갈 수 μžˆμ„μ§€λ„ ν™•μ‹€μΉ˜ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:36
So you slow way down to conserve energy
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό 아끼렀고 κ°μ†ν•˜λ‹€κ°€
00:39
and sigh when you see a giant hill coming up on the freeway ahead of you.
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μ•žμ— 였λ₯΄λ§‰κΈΈμ„ λ°œκ²¬ν•˜κ³ λŠ” ν•œμˆ¨λΆ€ν„° λ‚˜μ˜΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:44
The way people are driving,
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아무리 효율적으둜 μš΄μ „ν•˜λ”λΌλ„
00:45
there is no way you're going to make it up this hill at a safe highway speed
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00:49
without killing your energy efficiency.
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이 였λ₯΄λ§‰κΈΈμ„ 였λ₯Ό 방법은 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:52
It's hot out, but you turn off your AC
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밖은 λ₯μ§€λ§Œ 에어컨을 끄고
00:54
and remind yourself again that charging your phone in the car outlet
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μžλ™μ°¨μ—μ„œ νœ΄λŒ€ν°μ„ μΆ©μ „ν•˜λŠ” 게
μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό 많이 μ“°μ§„ μ•Šμ„ 거라 μ•”μ‹œλ₯Ό κ±Έκ² μ£ .
00:58
doesn't actually use that much energy.
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01:01
"Man," you think to yourself,
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β€œλ§™μ†Œμ‚¬β€ 이런 생각이 λ“­λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:05
"I remember when this was a problem for EVs.
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β€œμ΄λŸ° 건 μ›λž˜ μ „κΈ°μ°¨λ‚˜ κ±±μ •ν•˜λ˜ 건데,
01:10
But when I bought this car,
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이 μ°¨λ₯Ό μ‚΄ 땐 μ£Όμœ μ†Œλ₯Ό μ°ΎλŠ” 게 μ΄λ ‡κ²ŒκΉŒμ§€ νž˜λ“€ 쀄 λͺ°λžμ–΄.”
01:12
I just didn't think finding gasoline
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01:14
was ever going to be this much of a problem."
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01:18
(Laughter and applause)
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(μ›ƒμŒκ³Ό λ°•μˆ˜)
01:21
If we succeed at reaching international climate goals,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ꡭ제적인 κΈ°ν›„ λͺ©ν‘œλ₯Ό λ‹¬μ„±ν•˜λŠ” 데 μ„±κ³΅ν•œλ‹€λ©΄
01:23
the fossil fuel infrastructure systems
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세계 μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ†ŒλΉ„μ˜ μ•½ 80%λ₯Ό μ°¨μ§€ν•˜λŠ”
01:25
that support about 80 percent of global energy consumption
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화석 μ—°λ£Œ 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ€
01:28
will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.
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ν–₯ν›„ μˆ˜μ‹­ λ…„ 내에 λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„ μ‚¬λΌμ§€κ²Œ 될 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:33
The global dominance of fossil fuels
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화석 μ—°λ£Œμ˜ μ „ 세계적인 지배와 세계적인 κΈ°ν›„ λΉ„μƒμ‚¬νƒœ λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
01:35
and the global emergency of climate change
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01:37
means that this retirement imperative exists everywhere,
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이 ν˜„μƒμ€ λͺ¨λ“  κ³³μ—μ„œ ν•„μ—°μ μœΌλ‘œ λ°œμƒν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:40
whether infrastructure is relatively old --
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μ œκ°€ μžˆλŠ” λ―Έκ΅­κ³Ό λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ˜ λ‚˜λΌλ“€μ²˜λŸΌ
01:42
like in the US, where I work on these issues
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01:45
and where most of my examples come from --
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화석 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ„ μ˜€λž«λ™μ•ˆ 써온 곳은 λ¬Όλ‘ 
01:47
or relatively newer,
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μ΅œκ·Όμ—μ•Ό μ‚°μ—…ν™”κ°€ μ§„ν–‰λœ λ§Žμ€ λ‚˜λΌμ—μ„œλ„μš”.
01:48
as in many countries with more recent industrialization.
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01:53
What I'm talking about is big infrastructure,
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λ°œμ „μ†Œλ‚˜ μ •μœ μ†Œ 같은 λŒ€κ·œλͺ¨ 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ€ λ¬Όλ‘ 
01:56
like power plants and refineries,
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01:58
but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars,
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μ£Όμœ μ†Œλ‚˜ μžκ°€μš©, λ‚œλ‘œλ‚˜ μš©κ΄‘λ‘œ 등에도 ν•΄λ‹Ήλ˜λŠ” μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:02
stoves and furnaces.
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02:05
Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high-hazard industries
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화석 μ—°λ£Œ 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ€ κ³ μœ„ν—˜κ΅° μ‚°μ—…μ˜ λ³΅μž‘ν•œ λ„€νŠΈμ›Œν¬μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:09
that need to be able to continue to operate safely
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μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ΄ μ™„μ „νžˆ λ„˜κ²¨λ°›μ„ μ€€λΉ„κ°€ 될 λ•ŒκΉŒμ§€
02:12
until the new system is completely ready to take over,
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μ•ˆμ „ν•˜κ²Œ μš΄μ˜λ˜μ–΄μ•Όλ§Œ ν•˜μ£ .
02:15
including during emergencies complicated by climate change.
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κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”λ‘œ μΈν•œ λ³΅μž‘ν•œ λΉ„μƒμ‚¬νƒœλ₯Ό ν¬ν•¨ν•΄μ„œμš”.
02:18
Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.
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이런 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ μ œκ±°ν•˜λŠ” 건 맀우 μœ„ν—˜ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:24
We'd expect disproportionate harm
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κ³Όμ€‘ν•œ 뢀담을 μ§€κ³  μžˆλŠ” μ†Œμ™Έ 지역듀은 λΆˆκ· ν˜•μ  ν”Όν•΄λ₯Ό μž…κ²Œ 되겠죠.
02:25
to overburdened and underserved communities
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02:27
who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices,
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이듀은 μΉ˜μ†ŸλŠ” 가격을 ν”Όν•  수 μ—†κ³  ꡬ제 받을 μˆ˜λ„ μ—†μœΌλ©°
02:30
abandoned remediation plans
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ„œλΉ„μŠ€μ— λŒ€ν•œ 접근도 μ–΄λ ΅μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:32
and declining access to energy services.
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02:35
This means ongoing fossil expenditures
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κ²°κ΅­ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ§€μ†μ μœΌλ‘œ 화석 λΉ„μš©μ„ μ§€μΆœν•˜κ³ 
02:37
and a reliance on highly trained workers
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κ²½λ ₯이 μœ„νƒœλ‘œμš΄ μˆ™λ ¨ λ…Έλ™μžλ“€μ—κ²Œ 계속 μ˜μ‘΄ν•˜λŠ” λ™μ‹œμ—
02:39
in industries that might not outlast their careers,
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02:42
with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries
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κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μ‹ μ†νžˆ ν•΄κ²°ν•˜κ³  ν™˜κ²½μ  λΆ€μ •ν–‰μœ„λ₯Ό 쀄이기 μœ„ν•΄
02:45
as quickly as possible to address climate change
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동일 μ‚°μ—…μ˜ 단계적 폐지도 ν•¨κ»˜ μ§„ν–‰ν•΄μ•Ό ν•˜λŠ” 것이죠.
02:48
and a host of other environmental injustices.
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02:51
This is why we need to plan.
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이게 κ³„νšμ΄ ν•„μš”ν•œ μ΄μœ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:54
And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world
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μ§€κΈˆ λ‹Ήμž₯은 세계 μ–΄λ””μ—μ„œλ„
02:57
where these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system
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μ²­μ • μ—λ„ˆμ§€μ˜ 단계적 λ„μž…μ΄λ‚˜
화석 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ˜ 단계적 폐지가 μ‹œκΈ‰ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:00
while phasing in the clean energy system exist.
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03:04
When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is,
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κΈ°ν›„ λͺ©ν‘œλ₯Ό λ…Όν•  λ•Œ 이걸 묻고 μ‹Άλ„€μš”.
03:07
β€œIf we actually believed we were going to succeed,
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β€œμš°λ¦¬κ°€ 성곡할 거라 λ―ΏλŠ”λ‹€λ©΄
03:11
what would we need to be doing right now?”
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μ§€κΈˆ λ‹Ήμž₯ 뭘 ν•΄μ•Ό ν• κΉŒμš”?”
03:14
The time between now and success
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λ‹Ήμž₯κ³Ό 성곡 μ‚¬μ΄μ˜ 간극은 ν˜„μ‹€μ μ΄κ³  μ–΄λ ΅μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:15
is where this gets real and very difficult.
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03:19
Sara Hastings-Simon and I call this the mid-transition.
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사라 ν•΄μŠ€νŒ…μŠ€-사이먼 박사와 μ €λŠ” 이걸 쀑간 μ „ν™˜κΈ°λΌ λΆ€λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:22
And even under a best-case scenario, it will probably last for decades.
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μ΅œμƒμ˜ 상황이라도 κ³ μž‘ μˆ˜μ‹­ λ…„ 정도밖에 λͺ» κ°€μ£ .
03:26
During the mid-transition,
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쀑간 μ „ν™˜κΈ°μ—λŠ”
03:27
the clean energy system and the fossil energy system
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μ²­μ • μ—λ„ˆμ§€μ™€ 화석 μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œ λͺ¨λ‘
03:30
are both too small to fulfill all of the energy needs we have,
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우리의 전체 μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μˆ˜μš”λ₯Ό μΆ©μ‘±μ‹œν‚€κΈ°μ—” λΆ€μ‘±ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ
03:33
but big enough that they can't really operate without constraining each other.
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μ„œλ‘œ κ°„μ„­ν•˜μ§€μ•Šκ³  μž‘λ™μ‹œν‚€κΈ°μ—” μΆ©λΆ„ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:37
Also, the mid-transition overlaps with the climate transition.
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쀑간 μ „ν™˜κΈ°λŠ” κΈ°ν›„ 변화와도 κ΄€λ ¨ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:41
This means we'd expect the systems we have now to become less functional
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μ΄λŠ” ν˜„μž¬ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ˜ κΈ°λŠ₯이 μ• μ΄ˆμ˜ 섀계 λ³€μˆ˜λ₯Ό 점점 λ²—μ–΄λ‚˜λ©΄μ„œ
03:45
as they operate further and further outside of design parameters.
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μ €ν•˜λ  것을 μ˜λ―Έν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:48
And it also means we don't entirely know
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μ΄λŠ” μƒˆ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ μž‘λ™μ‹œν‚€λ €λ©΄ 무엇이 ν•„μš”ν• μ§€
03:50
what the new systems will need to be able to handle.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 잘 λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€λŠ” λœ»μ΄κΈ°λ„ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:54
Another issue here is that we'd also expect
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λ˜λ‹€λ₯Έ λ¬Έμ œλŠ” μ „ν™˜κΈ°μ˜ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ΄
03:57
that the transitioning system will just generally work less well
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μ•ˆμ •μ μΈ μ΄ˆκΈ°λ‚˜ 말기보닀
04:00
than either the stable starting point or the stable end point.
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덜 μž‘λ™ν•  κ²ƒμœΌλ‘œ μ˜ˆμƒλœλ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:03
As long as both systems are operating at scale,
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두 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ΄ λͺ¨λ‘ μ μ ˆν•˜κ²Œ μž‘λ™ν•˜λŠ” ν•œ
04:06
we can't optimize for either one's needs.
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μ–΄λŠ ν•œ μͺ½μ—λ§Œ 맞게 μ΅œμ ν™”ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μ—†μœΌλ‹ˆκΉŒμš”.
04:09
People are often willing to accept some level of problem
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 미래의 비전을 μ‹€ν˜„ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
04:12
in order to enable a shared future vision.
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문제λ₯Ό μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„λŠ” κ°μˆ˜ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:15
But trust in that vision will be extraordinarily fragile
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ κ·Έ 비전에 λŒ€ν•œ μ‹ λ’°λŠ”
μˆ˜μ‹­ 년이 μ§€λ‚˜λŠ” λ™μ•ˆ λŒ€λ‹¨νžˆ μ·¨μ•½ν•΄μ§€κ² μ£ .
04:18
when it’s required for decades,
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04:20
while climate impacts are making everything scarier
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κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”κ°€ λͺ¨λ“  것을 μœ„ν˜‘ν•˜κ³ 
04:23
and while we're visibly dismantling infrastructure
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 잘 μ΄μš©ν•΄μ™”λ˜ 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ„ λˆˆμ— 보일 μ •λ„λ‘œ ν•΄μ²΄ν•΄λ²„λ¦°λ‹€λ©΄μš”.
04:25
that people remember as functional.
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04:30
As we plan,
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우리의 κ³„νšλŒ€λ‘œ
04:32
keeping a clear and focused commitment on people first and foremost
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μ‚¬λžŒμ„ μ΅œμš°μ„ μœΌλ‘œ ν•œλ‹€λŠ” λͺ…ν™•ν•˜κ³  μ§‘μ€‘λœ 약속과
04:37
and ensuring that these are community-led projects
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이것이 μ§€μ—­ μ‚¬νšŒ 주도 κ³Όμ œλΌλŠ” 확신을 μ£ΌλŠ” 것이 μ€‘μš”ν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:39
will be critical.
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04:42
One of the nice things about existing energy infrastructure is it exists.
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ν˜„μ‘΄ν•˜λŠ” μ—λ„ˆμ§€ 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ˜ μž₯점은 그것이 ν˜„μ‘΄ν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:46
So you can go to a power plant break room
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ λ°œμ „μ†Œ νœ΄κ²Œμ‹€μ— κ°€μ„œ
04:48
and chat up people about how long they expect to keep working
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μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ 근속할 걸둜 μ˜ˆμƒν•˜λŠ”μ§€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€κ³Ό μ–˜κΈ°λ₯Ό λ‚˜λˆ„κ±°λ‚˜
04:51
or which bits of the plant site might need remediation.
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λ°œμ „μ†Œμ˜ κ°œμ„ μ μ— λŒ€ν•΄ μ–˜κΈ°ν•  수 있겠죠.
04:54
This means planning can be very, very specific
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κ³„νšμ΄λž€ 건 이처럼 μƒλ‹Ήνžˆ ꡬ체적일 수 있고
04:57
and guided by the expertise of people that are in these places.
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κ·Έκ³³ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€ 같은 전문가듀이 주도할 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” λœ»μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:00
Who needs a job if the power plant closes?
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λ°œμ „μ†Œκ°€ νμ‡„λ˜λ©΄ 직업이 ν•„μš”ν•΄μ§ˆ μ‚¬λžŒμ€ λˆ„κ΅΄κΉŒμš”?
05:03
Does everyone in town have safe temperatures in their homes?
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λͺ¨λ“  κ°€μ •μ˜ μ‹€λ‚΄ κΈ°μ˜¨μ€ μ•ˆμ •μ μΌκΉŒμš”?
05:07
Which gas stations need to stay open longer than they're profitable
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λŒ€μ²΄ λŒ€μ€‘κ΅ν†΅ 체계가 자리 μž‘λŠ” λ™μ•ˆ
05:10
to make sure that everybody can get to work
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μ–΄λ–€ μ£Όμœ μ†Œκ°€ 수읡 μ—†λŠ” μ˜μ—…μ„ ν•˜λ©° μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ μΆœν‡΄κ·Όμ„ λ„μšΈ 수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
05:13
while alternative transportation systems mature?
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05:15
How much extra funding do you need for the library
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μ„Έμˆ˜κ°€ 쀄어듀기 μ‹œμž‘ν•˜λ©΄
05:17
if tax revenues start to decline?
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λ„μ„œκ΄€μ— μΆ”κ°€ 자금이 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ ν•„μš”ν• κΉŒμš”?
05:20
Although good transition plans need to be deeply community-embedded,
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쒋은 μ „ν™˜ κ³„νšμ€ μ§€μ—­ μ‚¬νšŒμ™€ 깊게 μ—°κ΄€λ˜μ–΄μ•Ό ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ
05:23
the scale and the impact of the energy system
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ˜ 규λͺ¨μ™€ 영ν–₯λ ₯은
05:25
demands some level of centralized coordination.
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μ–΄λŠ 정도 쀑앙에 μ§‘μ€‘λœ ν˜‘λ ₯이 ν•„μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:28
One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.
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화석 μžμ‚°μ˜ 폐지 κΈ°ν•œμ„ μ •ν•˜λŠ” 게 ν•˜λ‚˜μ˜ μ „λž΅μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:33
Ample notice, say a decade,
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λ„‰λ„‰μž‘μ•„ 10λ…„μ˜ 기간은
05:35
gives communities enough time to create and implement plans,
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μ§€μ—­ μ‚¬νšŒκ°€ κ³„νšμ„ μ„Έμš°κ³  μ‹€ν–‰ν•˜λŠ”λ° μΆ©λΆ„ν•˜λ©°
05:39
and a legislated end date gives people enough confidence
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폐지 κΈ°ν•œμ„ μ œμ •ν•˜λ©΄ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ μΉ˜μ—΄ν•œ 과정에 μ „λ…ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ
05:42
to commit to what can be an intense process.
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μžμ‹ κ°μ„ μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ κ°–κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:45
I showed that in the United States,
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λ§μ”€λ“œλ Έλ‹€μ‹œν”Ό, 미ꡭ은
05:47
requiring all fossil fuel-fired power generators to close by 2035,
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2035λ…„κΉŒμ§€ λͺ¨λ“  화석 μ—°λ£Œ λ°œμ „μ†Œλ₯Ό νμ‡„ν•˜λ„λ‘ λͺ…λ Ήν–ˆκ³ 
이것은 바이든 λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ˜ λ°œμ „ λΆ€λ¬Έ νƒˆνƒ„μ†Œν™”μ˜ λͺ©ν‘œμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:51
which is President Biden's power sector decarbonization target,
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05:54
would actually allow the large majority of them
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μ΄λŠ” λŒ€λ‹€μˆ˜μ˜ κΈ°λŒ€ 수λͺ…을 μΆ©μ‘±μ‹œν‚€κ±°λ‚˜ 늘릴 수 있고
05:57
to meet or exceed a typical lifespan,
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05:59
potentially giving communities some confidence
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μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ μ‹€ν˜„ κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ κΈ°ν•œμ΄λΌλŠ” μžμ‹ κ°μ„
06:01
that these deadlines are manageable.
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μ§€μ—­ μ‚¬νšŒμ— 쀄 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:03
That may not be true in places with much newer infrastructure
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기반 μ‹œμ„€μ΄ μ§€μ–΄μ§„μ§€ μ–Όλ§ˆ μ•ˆ 된 곳은 쑰건이 λ‹¬λΌμ§€λ―€λ‘œ
06:06
and so the conversation about how to choose these deadlines
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κΈ°ν•œμ„ μ •ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ” λ˜λ‹€λ₯Έ λ…Όμ˜κ°€ ν•„μš”ν•˜κ² μ£ .
06:08
would look quite different.
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06:10
But in general,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 보톡은
06:11
being honest with people about what's coming,
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λ―Έλž˜μ— λŒ€ν•΄ μ†”μ§νžˆ 털어놓고
06:14
with enough time and support to do something about it
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μΆ©λΆ„ν•œ μ‹œκ°„μ„ κ°–κ³  ν•΄κ²°ν•  수 있게 μ§€μ›ν•˜λŠ” 것이 ν˜μ‹ μ  방법일 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:17
can be really transformative,
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06:20
but it does require a commitment to the end point
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이λ₯Ό μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ” μ΅œμ’… 단계에 μ§‘μ€‘ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ
06:22
and to proactively ensuring people have what they need
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ μ„±κ³΅μ μœΌλ‘œ μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ „ν™˜μ„ ν•΄λ‚Ό 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ”
06:24
to thrive alongside transition.
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확신을 미리 심어주어야 ν•˜κ² μ£ .
06:27
That is what earns and maintains trust.
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κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ μ‹ λ’°λ₯Ό μ–»μ–΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:30
Not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.
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λ§‰μ—°ν•œ μ‹€ν–‰ κ³„νšκ³Ό 잘λͺ»λœ λͺ©ν‘œκ°€ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌμš”.
06:35
The alternative of unplanned transitions is unacceptable, but common.
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κ³„νšλ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ€ μ „ν™˜μ€ 받아듀일 수 μ—†μ§€λ§Œ μΌλ°˜μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:40
Notably, this is what we would expect to see
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μ²­μ • μ—λ„ˆμ§€κ°€ 화석 μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό λŒ€μ²΄ν•  만큼
06:42
if we just rely on clean energy becoming cheap enough
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μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ μ €λ ΄ν•΄μ§„λ‹€λ©΄ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ κ±Έ κΈ°λŒ€ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:45
to displace fossil energy systems.
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06:47
What I've observed over the years is that facilities might close suddenly
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λͺ‡ λ…„ κ°„ κ΄€μ°°ν•œ κ²°κ³Ό, 이런 μ‹œμ„€λ“€μ€
ν•œ μ°¨λ‘€ 해고와 νŒŒμ‚°μ„ ν†΅λ³΄ν•˜λ©°
06:51
with a round of layoffs and a bankruptcy notification
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06:53
with very little notice and no plan for what comes next.
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μ°¨ν›„ μ•ˆλ‚΄ 없이 κ°‘μžκΈ° 문을 λ‹«μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:57
Several years ago, I was working on a survey in a coal mining community,
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λͺ‡ λ…„ μ „, μ €λŠ” νƒ„κ΄‘μ΄Œμ—μ„œ μ„€λ¬Έ 쑰사λ₯Ό ν•œ 적이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:00
and the morning my survey hit people's mailboxes,
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μ„€λ¬Έ 쑰사가 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ μš°νŽΈν•¨μ— λ„μ°©ν•œ λ‚  아침에
07:03
about 500 coal miners were suddenly laid off.
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μ•½ 500λͺ…μ˜ 광뢀듀이 κ°‘μžκΈ° ν•΄κ³ λ˜μ—ˆμ£ .
07:06
Just four US coal mining companies used bankruptcy
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2012λ…„κ³Ό 2017λ…„ μ‚¬μ΄μ—λ§Œ 4개의 λ―Έκ΅­ 탄광 νšŒμ‚¬κ°€
07:09
to avoid about five billion dollars in pensions
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5λ°±μ–΅ λ‹¬λŸ¬μ˜ μ—°κΈˆκ³Ό
07:12
and environmental cleanup obligations just between 2012 and 2017.
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ν™˜κ²½ μ •ν™” 의무λ₯Ό ν”Όν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄ νŒŒμ‚°μ„ μ΄μš©ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:16
The coal industry in the United States is actually pretty small,
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λ―Έκ΅­μ—μ„œ 석탄 산업은 규λͺ¨κ°€ 맀우 μž‘μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:19
now providing about 11 percent of primary energy,
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10λ…„ μ „μ—λŠ” 석탄 산업이 1μ°¨ μ—λ„ˆμ§€μ›μ˜ 18%λ₯Ό μ°¨μ§€ν–ˆμ§€λ§Œ
07:22
down from 18 percent a decade ago.
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ν˜„μž¬λŠ” 11% μ •λ„λ‘œ μ€„μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ „ μ„Έκ³„μ˜ 80%λ₯Ό μ°¨μ§€ν•˜λŠ” μ—λ„ˆμ§€ 기반 μ‹œμ„€μ„ λ―Έκ΅­μ—μ„œ
07:25
We're talking about successfully retiring and replacing infrastructure
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μ„±κ³΅μ μœΌλ‘œ νμ‡„ν•˜κ³  κ΅μ²΄ν•˜λŠ” 방법을 λ…Όμ˜ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:29
that supports 80 percent of energy use globally and in the United States
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07:33
all before I reach retirement age.
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μ œκ°€ 은퇴 연령에 λ„λ‹¬ν•˜κΈ° μ „μ—μš”.
07:36
Planning the transition is an ethical responsibility that takes time,
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μ „ν™˜μ„ κ³„νšν•˜λŠ” 건 μ‹œκ°„μ΄ κ±Έλ¦¬λŠ” 윀리적 μ±…μž„μ΄μ§€λ§Œ
07:40
but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable future
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과거의 μ‹€μˆ˜λ₯Ό λ°”λ‘œμž‘κ³  κ³΅μ •ν•˜κ³  지속 κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ 미래λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“œλŠ”
07:44
that corrects the harms of the past.
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기회λ₯Ό μ°½μΆœν•˜κΈ°λ„ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€
07:47
Collaboration and a laser-like focus
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특히 μ „ν™˜μ΄ κΈ°ν›„ 변화와 μΆ©λŒν•  λ•ŒλŠ”
07:49
on ensuring people have what we need to succeed through this transition
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ μ „ν™˜μ— 성곡할 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 확신을 μ£ΌλŠ” 데 μ •ν™•νžˆ μ΄ˆμ μ„ 맞좰
07:53
will be critical,
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07:54
particularly as the transition collides with climate tragedies.
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ν˜‘λ ₯ν•˜λŠ” 것이 맀우 μ€‘μš”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:58
What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?
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성곡을 λ―ΏλŠ”λ‹€λ©΄ 이제 무엇을 ν•΄μ•Ό ν• κΉŒμš”?
08:02
Anticipating the bumps and planning for success
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μž₯애물을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜κ³  성곡을 μœ„ν•œ κ³„νšμ„ μ„Έμš΄λ‹€λ©΄
08:05
is the path to a just, decarbonized and sustainable world.
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κ³΅μ •ν•˜κ³  νƒ„μ†Œ μ—†λŠ” 세상, 그리고 지속 κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ 세상을 λ§Œλ‚  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:09
Thank you.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:10
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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