Stephanie Kelton: The big myth of government deficits | TED

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Helen Chang

When things break, we have an opportunity.

当东西破损时，我们有机会。

We can pick up the pieces and put them back together the old way,

我们可以拾起碎片把它们放回原样，

or we can look for better ways to build.

或者我们可以寻找更好的构建方法。

Covid broke everything.

新冠疫情打破了所有的事情。

It put a spotlight on the many deficits in our economy --

它将我们经济中的很多赤字 放到了聚光灯下——

in employment, education, health care, housing --

就业、教育、医疗、住房——

and it showed how inequality made it all worse.

它展示了不平等是如何让一切更糟糕。

Here in the US and around the world, governments did some extraordinary things.

在美国和世界其他地方， 政府做了一些非同寻常的事情。

They sent money to people directly to help them buy food and pay rent.

它们直接给人们发钱 让他们购买食物和支付房租。

They provided free Covid testing

它们提供免费的新冠测试

and expanded health care to cover more of the population.

并将医疗服务覆盖更多的人群。

They gave money to businesses to help keep them afloat

当大多数经济暂时停转时，

while much of the economy was temporarily shut down.

它们给企业资金让它们得以周转。

They offered debt relief to millions of people

它们为数百万贷款上大学的人

who borrowed money to go to college.

提供债务减免。

They did all of this and more without raising taxes

它们做了这一切和更多事情，

没有加税，也未长期争论往常的问题，

or having a prolonged battle

over the usual question of how to pay for it.

要如何支付这些款项。

To me, this was exciting,

对我而言，这让人兴奋，

and I'm an economist, so I don't say that a lot.

我是个经济学家，所以我很少这样说。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But as someone who's been trying to change the way we think

但作为一个试图改变我们对政府支出

about deficits and government spending,

和赤字思考方式的人来说，

I saw this as an opportunity

我把这些视为一个机会

to show why government budgets don't work like household budgets.

去展示为什么政府预算 不像家庭预算那样运作。

Why all of their red ink is really our black ink.

为什么它们的赤字 其实是我们的盈余。

And why our nation can afford to keep investing in the things we need

即便在花费了数万亿抗疫后，

even after spending trillions to fight the pandemic.

为什么我们国家仍然能够保持投资 这些我们需要的东西？

For a while, it looked like the US and other countries

一时间，看起来美国和其他国家

were starting to break the mold on the old way of thinking

在开始打破对赤字和税收的

about deficits and taxes.

固化老方式。

But now here we are,

但现在我们到了这里，

just a handful of months after all of that bold action,

在这些大胆动作的几个月后，

and we're sliding back into our old habits of thought.

我们正在滑向旧有的思维习惯。

Can we build affordable housing and fix crumbling infrastructure?

我们能建造经济适用房， 修复摇摇欲坠的基础设施吗？

Can we expand Medicare to include dental, vision and hearing?

我们能将医保覆盖至 牙科、眼科和耳科吗？

Can we tackle our climate crisis?

我们能应对我们的气候危机吗？

As Congress debates these questions, everyone is back to asking,

随着国会辩论这些问题，所有人回到思考，

how will you pay for it?

我们如何支付这些？

It's the wrong question.

这是错误的问题。

In fact, the right questions don't involve money at all.

事实上，正确的问题跟钱没有一点关系。

Instead of worrying about where the financing will come from,

与其担忧资金从哪里来，

we should be asking, are these things worth doing

我们应该问，这些事情值得做么，

and do we have the real resources, the people, the equipment,

以及我们有真正的资源， 人力资源，设备，

the raw materials and the technology to do them?

原材料和技术去实现么？

Well, they make society better off.

它们让社会变得更好。

And do we have the political will to act?

以及我们是否有采取行动的政治意愿？

I'm one of a handful of economists

我是少数致力于

who contributed to the body of academic scholarship

MMT或现代货币理论学术研究的

known as MMT or Modern Monetary Theory.

少数经济学家之一。

MMT provides an accurate description

MMT对美元和英镑

of how a fiat currency like the US dollar or the British pound actually works.

这样的法定货币如何真正运作 提供了一个精确的描述。

It reminds us that we're no longer on a gold standard,

它提醒我们，我们不再实行金本位，

so finding the money to pay for the things we need

所以找钱去支付我们需要的东西

is never an issue for countries like the US or the UK.

对于像美国或英国这样的国家 从来不是问题。

If we're going to fix what's broken in our economy,

如果我们打算修复我们 经济中破损的事情，

we have to fix the way we think about the limits on government spending.

我们需要纠正 对政府支出上限的思考方式。

Let me give you an example

让我给你们举一个

of the kind of broken gold standard thinking

那种落伍的仍然渗透在我们的话语中的

that still permeates our discourse.

金本位思想。

Back in 1983, the prime minister of Great Britain, Margaret Thatcher,

回到1983年，英国首相玛格丽特·撒切尔，

said these words:

说过这些话：

"If the state wishes to spend more,

“如果国家想花更多钱，

it can do so only by borrowing your savings or by taxing you more,

它只能从你的储蓄中借 或者对你收更多税，

and it is no good thinking that someone else will pay.

认为别人会买单的想法 不是个好想法。

That someone else is you.

别人就是你。

There is no such thing as public money.

世界上不存在公共资金这种东西。

There is only taxpayers' money."

只有纳税人的钱。”

Maybe you've heard the contemporary version of Thatcher's dictum.

也许你听过撒切尔名言的当代版本。

"There is no magic money tree."

“世界上没有摇钱树。”

It's just another way of saying that everything must be paid for

这只是另一个说法说 每个人都得自己买单

and that the taxpayer is ultimately on the hook

并且最终是纳税人

for whatever the government spends.

要为政府支出买单。

It sounds worrying.

这听起来让人担忧。

As individuals, we know that when we borrow money

作为个体，我们知道当我们借钱

to go to college, start a business or buy a home,

上大学，创业或买房子时，

we're personally saddled with that debt.

我们要背负那些债务。

We have to find the money to pay it back.

我们需要找到钱还。

Taking on too much personal debt can lead to all sorts of problems.

承担太多的个人债务会引发各种问题。

Even small businesses and large corporations

不管小公司还是大公司

have to walk a fine line when it comes to debt.

在债务问题上都必须小心行事。

But the federal government is fundamentally different.

但联邦政府有根本的不同。

Unlike the rest of us,

不像我们其他人，

Congress never has to check the balance in its bank account

国会从来不需要检查它的银行账户

to figure out whether it can afford to spend more.

去计算它是否能够支出更多。

As the issuer of the currency,

作为货币的发行者，

the federal government can never run out of money.

联邦政府永远不会没钱。

It can afford to buy whatever is available and for sale in its own currency.

它能够购买和出售任何 以自己货币计价的东西。

Now that might mean spending on roads and bridges,

如今，这可能意味着在道路和桥梁、

a military arsenal or hospitals and schools.

军事武器库或医院和学校上的支出。

Finding the votes to pass a spending bill can be hard,

找到足够的票通过支付法案可能很难，

but finding the money

但找到钱

is never a problem.

从来不是问题。

They just create it.

它们只需要创造它。

So here's how it works.

这是它运作的方式。

Whenever Congress and the president agree to spend more,

不管何时国会和总统同意支出更多，

the government's bank, the Federal Reserve,

政府的银行，美联储，

works with the rest of the financial system

和其他金融体系一起

to get that money into our accounts.

把钱打入我们的账户。

Everything's done electronically,

所有的事情通过电子化完成，

so there's no physical printing of money involved.

这里不涉及到纸币的印刷。

If you got a 1,400-dollar check from the federal government

如果你今年早些时候从联邦政府

earlier this year,

收到一笔1400美元的支票，

or if your company received money to help cover payroll and other expenses,

或者你的公司收到一笔帮助 支付工资和其他费用的钱，

then you received some of the newly minted digital dollars

那么你接到了一笔为支持我们的经济

that were created to support our economy.

而新创造发行的数字货币。

No taxpayers were involved in that process.

在这个过程中不涉及到纳税人。

It was all done using nothing more than a computer keyboard.

不需要做任何事情，除了一个电脑按键。

So why are we hearing so much about the need to raise taxes

那么我们为什么会听到 如此之多关于需要加税

to pay for infrastructure and make other investments in our economy?

去支付基础设施和其他经济投资的说法？

In a word,

一言以蔽之，

deficits.

赤字。

We've all been conditioned to worry about deficits,

我们习惯于担心赤字，

so lawmakers are looking for ways to spend more

所以立法者寻找无需增加赤字

without adding to the deficit.

就能支出更多的方法。

That's what this whole pay-for game is about.

这就是整个付费游戏的规则。

Unfortunately, deficits have gotten a bad rap.

不幸的是，赤字的名声不好。

They're almost always seen in a negative light.

它们总是被人以负面眼光看待。

And I would like to change that.

我想要改变这个。

When we hear the word "deficit,"

当我们听到“赤字”

we probably think of a deficiency or shortfall.

我们可能会想到窟窿或不足。

A deficit always sounds ominous.

赤字总是听起来不吉祥。

So when we hear that the federal government

所以当我们听到联邦政府

just ran a three-trillion-dollar budget deficit,

刚刚出现了三万亿美元的预算赤字时，

it can sound worrying.

这听起来很让人担忧。

And it can even anger people.

这甚至会激怒人们。

But there's another way to think about government deficits.

但有另一种思考政府赤字的方式。

Just as a six becomes a nine when we view it from a different angle,

当我们从不同角度看时， 这就像6变成9，

a government deficit becomes a financial surplus

当我们从另一个角度看时，

when we look at it from another perspective.

政府赤字就会变成财政结余。

A deficit hawk might look at this picture

可能赤字鹰派看着这幅图，

and see nothing but a sea of worrying red ink.

除了令人担忧的赤字之外什么都看不到。

That's not how I look at it.

这是我看待它的方式。

Here's what I see.

这是我看到的。

I see what's happening

我看到政府总帐上另一面

on the other side of the government's ledger.

正在发生的事情。

When the government spends more than it taxes away from us,

当政府支出高于从我们身上取得的税收时，

it makes a financial contribution to some other part of the economy.

它在对经济的其他部分进行财政资助。

Their red ink is our black ink.

它们的赤字就是我们的盈余。

When you look at it this way,

当你这样看时，

it becomes clear that every deficit is good for someone.

这就很清晰了， 每个赤字都对某些人有利。

The question is for whom

问题是对谁

and what are those deficits being used to accomplish?

以及这些赤字被用于实现什么？

It matters how the money is spent

关键是政府如何支出

and who ends up with the resulting surplus.

以及谁是最终的受益者。

Tax cuts that deliver huge windfalls for those at the top

为最富有的人带来巨额意外之财的减税

without sparking investment and opportunity

不会为其他人

for the rest of the population

带来投资和机会，

don't make good use of deficits.

没有用好赤字。

On the other hand,

另外一种，

spending trillions to support the economy during the pandemic

在疫情期间支出数万亿支持经济

put the deficit to good use.

是赤字的好用途。

We just had the shortest recession in US history.

我们刚刚经过了美国历史上 最短的经济衰退。

To me, that was fiscally responsible.

对我而言，这是负责任的财政。

Being responsible shouldn't mean running the government's finances

负责任不代表像家庭那样

like a household.

运作政府财政。

Instead of trying to keep the deficit in check,

与其控制赤字，

Congress should be focused on keeping inflation in check.

国会应该专注于控制通胀。

That's the real limit on spending

这是真正限制支出的东西，

and it's the thing to watch out for

这是真正需要注意的事情，

if you're thinking about spending trillions

如果你正在考虑花费数万亿美元

on things like infrastructure, health care and free college.

到诸如基建、医保和免费大学上的话。

Instead of asking, "How will we pay for it?,"

与其问，“我该怎么支付？”，

Congress should be asking, "How will we resource it?"

国会应该问，“我们怎么运用它？”

To answer that question,

要回答这个问题，

think of people, factories, equipment and raw materials like wood and iron.

想想人力资源、工厂、设备 和诸如木头和钢铁这类的原材料。

If we're going to build high-speed rail,

如果你打算建造高速铁路，

fix crumbling infrastructure and green our economy,

修复摇摇欲坠的经济和绿化我们的经济，

then we'll need concrete, steel and lumber.

那么我们需要混凝土，钢铁和木材。

We'll need construction workers, architects and engineers.

我们需要建筑工人、建筑师和工程师。

We'll need companies that can fill thousands of orders for solar panels,

我们需要能完成数千份太阳能电池板的公司、

EV charging stations and electric school buses.

电动车充电站和电动校园巴士。

If our economy has the productive capacity to quickly supply all of those things,

如果我们的经济有快速供应 所有这些东西的能力，

then we can easily resource it.

那么我们可以轻松运用出去。

Or take health care or free college.

或者拿医保或免费大学来说。

Paying the bills to expand Medicare,

支付扩大医保范围的费用，

to include dental, vision and hearing is easy.

去囊括牙科、眼科和耳科很容易。

The challenge is making sure

挑战在于需要确保

we have enough dentists, optometrists and audiologists

我们有足够的牙医、 验光师和听力学专家

to treat everyone who needs care.

去接待需要医护的每个人。

And if you want to resource free college,

如果你想要花在免费大学上，

then you need the faculty,

那么你需要教授

the classrooms and the dormitories to teach and house more students.

和接待更多学生的 学院、教室和宿舍。

In a full-employment economy,

在充分就业的经济中，

all of the resources you need are, well,

你需要所有这些资源

fully employed.

已经被充分配置。

There's no spare capacity anywhere in the system.

系统里没有多余的空间。

So if the government suddenly tried to make all of these investments at once,

所以如果政府试图突然 一下子做所有这些投资，

it would quickly discover that it doesn't have the people

它很快就会发现没有人手

or the building materials to do the work.

或建筑材料来做这些工作。

To get the resources it needs,

要获得需要的资源，

it would have to compete with the private sector,

它需要和私营部门竞争，

bidding up wages and prices.

竞价抬高工资和价格。

That would be inflationary and it would be fiscally irresponsible.

可能会带来通货膨胀 并且是不负责的财政。

We are a long way from full employment.

我们离充分就业还有很长路。

We have the resources we need to begin repairing our broken systems.

我们拥有修复我们破损系统的资源。

But we have to believe it's possible.

但我们需要相信这是可行的。

We can't let words like debt and deficits hold us back.

我们不能让债务和赤字 这样的字眼绊住我们。

With a better understanding of public money,

有了对公共资金更好的认识，

where it comes from and how it works

它从何来以及如何运作，

we can take aim at the many real deficits that are bearing down on us.

我们可以瞄准许多正压在 我们头上的实际赤字。

In every crisis lies an opportunity.

每次的危机背后都是机会。

We can pick up the pieces

我们可以拾起碎片

and try to reassemble the fragile systems that were in place before the pandemic

去重新把这些破碎的系统 组装回疫情前脆弱的原状，

or we can build anew,

或者我们可以创造一个新的，

shaping our bountiful resources into the kind of world we want to live in,

把我们丰富的资源塑造成 我们想要的生活的世界，

one that cares for our people and our planet.

一个关怀我们的人们和地球的世界。

I truly hope we choose to be bold.

我真的希望我们选择大胆。

Thank you.

谢谢。