Emergency medicine for our climate fever | Kelly Wanser

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

I'm here to talk to you about something important that may be new to you.

今天，我要给各位分享一些 你们或许没听过，却至关重要的事情。

The governments of the world

世界各国政府

are about to conduct an unintentional experiment

将要对我们的气候做一个

on our climate.

无意的实验。

In 2020, new rules will require ships to lower their sulfur emissions

2020 年，出台了一些新规定，

要求船舶能够处理废气， 或改用更清洁的燃料

by scrubbing their dirty exhaust

or switching to cleaner fuels.

来降低硫的排放。

For human health, this is really good,

对人类健康而言，这是好事，

but sulfur particles in the emission of ships

但船舶中的硫粒子排放

also have an effect on clouds.

也会对云层产生影响。

This is a satellite image of marine clouds

这是美国太平洋西海岸

off the Pacific West Coast of the United States.

的海洋云层的卫星图像。

The streaks in the clouds are created by the exhaust from ships.

云层中的条纹是由船只 排出的废气造成的。

Ships' emissions include both greenhouse gases,

船舶的排放气体包括温室气体，

which trap heat over long periods of time,

这些气体会不断积聚热量，

and particulates like sulfates that mix with clouds

而硫酸盐等微粒与云层混合后，

and temporarily make them brighter.

会暂时使云层变亮。

Brighter clouds reflect more sunlight back to space,

明亮的云层会把更多的 太阳光反射回太空，

cooling the climate.

降低温度。

So in fact,

所以，事实上，

humans are currently running two unintentional experiments

人类是在对我们的气候进行

on our climate.

两种无意的实验。

In the first one, we're increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases

第一个实验，我们在逐渐 增加温室气体的浓度，

and gradually warming the earth system.

慢慢导致全球气候变暖，

This works something like a fever in the human body.

这个过程有点像人体的发烧。

If the fever remains low, its effects are mild,

如果发烧的温度比较低， 它的危害还不是很大，

but as the fever rises, damage grows more severe

但如果发烧的温度升高了， 会带来很大的危害，

and eventually devastating.

并最终导致十分严重的后果。

We're seeing a little of this now.

我们现在已经看到了一些这样的情况。

In our other experiment,

在我们另一个实验中，

we're planning to remove a layer of particles

我们正计划移除一层粒子，

that brighten clouds and shield us from some of this warming.

使云层变亮，并保护我们 免受气候变暖的影响。

The effect is strongest in ocean clouds like these,

像这种效应在海洋云层中最强，

and scientists expect the reduction of sulfur emissions from ships next year

科学家预计明年船舶 硫排放量的减少，

将会导致可测量的全球气候变暖。

to produce a measurable increase in global warming.

Bit of a shocker?

让人有些震惊吧？

In fact, most emissions contain sulfates that brighten clouds:

实际上，很多包含硫的排放物 都可以使云层变亮：

coal, diesel exhaust, forest fires.

煤，柴油废气，森林火灾。

Scientists estimate that the total cooling effect from emission particles,

科学家估计，来自 排放粒子的总冷却效应

which they call aerosols when they're in the climate,

（这些粒子在大气中被称为气体粒子）

may be as much as all of the warming we've experienced up until now.

可能和我们到目前为止 所经历的变暖差不多。

There's a lot of uncertainty around this effect,

这种效应存在很大的不确定性，

and it's one of the major reasons why we have difficulty predicting climate,

这是我们很难预测气候变化 的主要原因之一，

but this is cooling that we'll lose as emissions fall.

但随着排放量下降， 我们将失去这种降温方式。

So to be clear, humans are currently cooling the planet

再清楚的解释一下， 人类目前是通过大规模地

by dispersing particles into the atmosphere at massive scale.

把废气粒子排放到大气 从而使地球降温的。

We just don't know how much, and we're doing it accidentally.

我们并不知道降温的程度， 我们只是无心插柳罢了 。

That's worrying,

这的确让人担忧，

but it could mean that we have a fast-acting way to reduce warming,

但这也意味着我们有 快速的方法来降温，

emergency medicine for our climate fever if we needed it,

如果需要的话，我们有 缓解气候过热的紧急方法，

and it's a medicine with origins in nature.

并且这是一种源于自然的方法。

This is a NASA simulation of earth's atmosphere,

这 NASA 对地球大气的模拟，

showing clouds and particles moving over the planet.

显示了云层和粒子 在地球上的移动情况。

The brightness is the Sun's light reflecting from particles in clouds,

明亮处是云层中粒子反射阳光的部分，

and this reflective shield is one of the primary ways

并且这种反射罩是自然为人类

that nature keeps the planet cool enough for humans

和我们已知的所有生物 保持地球足够冷却

and all of the life that we know.

所准备的主要方式之一。

In 2015, scientists assessed possibilities for rapidly cooling climate.

2015 年，科学家评估了 快速冷却气候的可行性。

They discounted things like mirrors in space,

他们不看重诸如那些太空镜子，

ping-pong balls in the ocean, plastic sheets on the Arctic,

海洋中的乒乓球， 北极的塑料布之类的东西，

and they found that the most viable approaches

他们发现最可行的方法

involved slightly increasing this atmospheric reflectivity.

是略微增加大气的反射率。

In fact, it's possible that reflecting just one or two percent more sunlight

事实上，将从大气中反射 的阳光增加一到两个百分点

from the atmosphere

可以影响 2 摄氏度的气温，

could offset two degrees Celsius or more of warming.

甚至更高的升温都是有可能的。

Now, I'm a technology executive, not a scientist.

我是个技术主管，不是个科学家。

About a decade ago, concerned about climate,

大概 10 年前，因为担忧气候问题，

I started to talk with scientists about potential countermeasures to warming.

我开始和科学家们讨论 气候问题的潜在对策。

These conversations grew into collaborations

这些对话发展成了

that became the Marine Cloud Brightening Project,

我一会儿将会讲到的

which I'll talk about momentarily,

海洋云层增亮计划的合作项目，

and the nonprofit policy organization SilverLining, where I am today.

和我今天身处的非盈利组织 SilverLining （暗夜曙光）。

I work with politicians, researchers,

我跟政治家，研究者，

members of the tech industry and others

科技和其他行业的成员

to talk about some of these ideas.

讨论这些想法。

Early on, I met British atmospheric scientist John Latham,

早些时候，我遇到了 英国气候学家约翰·莱瑟姆，

who proposed cooling the climate the way that the ships do,

他提出了一种和船排放废气 同一原理的给气候降温的方式，

but with a natural source of particles:

但使用一种天然的微粒来源:

sea-salt mist from seawater

海水中的海盐雾，

sprayed from ships into areas of susceptible clouds over the ocean.

从船上喷射到海洋上 易受影响的云层中。

The approach became known by the name I gave it then,

这项目因我起的名字“海洋云增亮”

"marine cloud brightening."

而为人们所知。

Early modeling studies suggested that by deploying marine cloud brightening

早先模型研究显示只需在 10-20% 易受影响

in just 10 to 20 percent of susceptible ocean clouds,

的海洋云中部署“海洋云增亮”，

it might be possible to offset as much as two degrees Celsius's warming.

就可能会抵消多达 2 摄氏度的升温。

It might even be possible to brighten clouds in local regions

它甚至可以通过使部分地区的云层变亮，

to reduce the impacts caused by warming ocean surface temperatures.

来减少海洋表面温度上升引发的影响。

For example, regions such as the Gulf Atlantic

比如，在大西洋海湾等地，

might be cooled in the months before a hurricane season

在飓风季来临前的几个月降温，

to reduce the force of storms.

可以降低风暴的威力。

Or, it might be possible to cool waters flowing onto coral reefs

或者，它也可以冷却流入

受热很强的珊瑚礁的水流，

overwhelmed by heat stress,

like Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

比如，澳大利亚的大堡礁。

But these ideas are only theoretical,

但这些想法只停留在理论层面，

and brightening marine clouds is not the only way

并且增亮海洋云层不是唯一一种

to increase the reflection of the sunlight from the atmosphere.

用来提高太阳光大气反射率的方法。

Another occurs when large volcanoes release material with enough force

另一种方式是利用大型火山 释放的具有足够的力量物质，

to reach the upper layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere.

可以到达到达大气层 的上层，即平流层。

When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991,

在 1991 年，皮纳图博火山爆发时，

it released material into the stratosphere,

它释放到大气中的物质，

including sulfates that mix with the atmosphere to reflect sunlight.

包括与大气混合 可以反射阳光的硫酸盐。

This material remained and circulated around the planet.

这些物质仍然存在并在地球上循环。

It was enough to cool the climate by over half a degree Celsius

它足以在大约两年的时间中降温

for about two years.

约 0.5 摄氏度。

This cooling led to a striking increase in Arctic ice cover in 1992,

这种降温导致 1992 年 北极冰层覆盖率显著增加，

which dropped in subsequent years as the particles fell back to earth.

然而在随后几年，随着这些粒子 落回地面，冰层覆盖率也随之下降。

But the volcanic phenomenon led Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen

但火山现象促使诺贝尔奖得主 保罗·克鲁岑提出了一个想法，

to propose the idea that dispersing particles into the stratosphere

即以可控的方式将粒子播撒到平流层，

in a controlled way might be a way to counter global warming.

可能是解决全球变暖的一种方式。

Now, this has risks that we don't understand,

这个措施存在我们尚不清楚的风险，

including things like heating up the stratosphere

包括加热平流层，

or damage to the ozone layer.

或者破坏臭氧层。

Scientists think that there could be safe approaches to this,

科学家认为会有安全的方式来实现，

but is this really where we are?

但我们真的能做到吗？

Is this really worth considering?

这真的值得考虑吗？

This is a simulation

这个来自

from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research

美国国家大气研究中心

global climate model showing, earth surface temperatures through 2100.

的全球气候模型显示了到 2100 年的地球表面温度。

The globe on the left visualizes our current trajectory,

左边的显示了地球 按目前轨迹的情况，

and on the right, a world where particles are introduced into the stratosphere

而右边，则是一个 2020 年 微粒被逐渐播撒到

gradually in 2020,

平流层，

and maintained through 2100.

并维持到 2100 年的情况。

Intervention keeps surface temperatures near those of today,

干预让表面温度接近目前的水平，

while without it, temperatures rise well over three degrees.

而没有干预，温度将上升超过 3 度。

This could be the difference between a safe and an unsafe world.

这可能是安全和不安全世界的差异。

So, if there's even a chance that this could be close to reality,

所以，如果存在可能接近现实的机会，

is this something we should consider seriously?

这是我们应该认真考虑的吗？

Today, there are no capabilities,

今天，我们现有的能力仍然不足，

and scientific knowledge is extremely limited.

相关科学知识非常有限。

We don't know whether these types of interventions are even feasible,

我们不知道这种干预是否具有弹性，

or how to characterize their risks.

或如何描述它们的风险。

Researchers hope to explore some basic questions

研究者希望找到一些基本问题

that might help us know whether or not these might be real options

来帮助我们理解这些 是否是真正的选项，

or whether we should rule them out.

还是我们应该排除的选择。

It requires multiple ways of studying the climate system,

这要求多种研究气候系统的方法，

including computer models to forecast changes,

包括预测变化的电脑模型，

analytic techniques like machine learning,

类似机器学习的分析技术，

and many types of observations.

以及很多类型的观测。

And though it's controversial,

尽管这存在争议，

it's also critical that researchers develop core technologies

研究者开发核心技术并进行小规模，

and perform small-scale, real-world experiments.

真实世界的实验也很重要。

There are two research programs proposing experiments like this.

有两个研究项目提出了这样的实验。

At Harvard, the SCoPEx experiment would release very small amounts

在哈佛大学，SCoPEx实验 将用气球向平流层

of sulfates, calcium carbonate and water into the stratosphere with a balloon,

释放非常少量的硫酸盐、 碳酸钙和水，

to study chemistry and physics effects.

来研究化学和物理效应。

How much material?

有多少物质？

Less than the amount released in one minute of flight

不到商业航班一分钟内

from a commercial aircraft.

的排放量。

So this is definitely not dangerous,

所以这当然没有危害，

and it may not even be scary.

也谈不上可怕。

At the University of Washington,

在华盛顿大学，

scientists hope to spray a fine mist of salt water into clouds

科学家们希望在一系列 的陆地和海洋测试中，

in a series of land and ocean tests.

向云层中喷洒一层细盐水雾。

If those are successful, this would culminate in experiments

如果这些尝试成功了， 我们将可以测量到

to measurably brighten an area of clouds over the ocean.

海洋上空的云层将变得明亮。

The marine cloud brightening effort is the first to develop any technology

海洋云层增亮努力是第一个 利用技术来产生微粒，

for generating aerosols for atmospheric sunlight reflection in this way.

以增加大气阳光反射的方式。

It requires producing very tiny particles --

这要求生产非常小的微粒——

think about the mist that comes out of an asthma inhaler --

想想哮喘吸入器喷出的雾气——

at massive scale -- so think of looking up at a cloud.

扩大规模——想想天上的云朵。

It's a tricky engineering problem.

这是个棘手的工程问题。

So this one nozzle they developed

这是他们开发的一个喷嘴，

generates three trillion particles per second,

每秒钟能产生 3 万亿微粒，

80 nanometers in size,

每一粒有 80 纳米大小，

from very corrosive saltwater.

来自腐蚀性很强的盐水。

It was developed by a team of retired engineers in Silicon Valley --

它是由一群硅谷 的退休工程师开发的——

here they are --

就是他们——

working full-time for six years, without pay, for their grandchildren.

6 年全职工作，没有薪水，为了后代。

It will take a few million dollars and another year or two

还需要几百万美元和一到两年的时间

to develop the full spray system they need to do these experiments.

来开发需要用来做这些实验 的全套喷洒系统。

In other parts of the world, research efforts are emerging,

在世界其他地方， 研究者的努力正在兴起，

including small modeling programs at Beijing Normal University in China,

包括北京师范大学的小型建模项目，

the Indian Institute of Science,

印度科学研究院，

a proposed center for climate repair at Cambridge University in the UK

英国剑桥大学气候修复中心，

and the DECIMALS Fund,

还有DECIMALS基金，

which sponsors researchers in global South countries

资助了全球南部国家的研究人员，

to study the potential impacts of these sunlight interventions

以研究这些阳光干预措施 对他们所在地区

in their part of the world.

的潜在影响。

But all of these programs, including the experimental ones,

但所有这些项目，包括实验性的项目，

lack significant funding.

缺乏足够的资金。

And understanding these interventions is a hard problem.

但了解这些干预措施是个复杂的问题。

The earth is a vast, complex system

地球是个巨大，复杂的系统，

and we need major investments in climate models, observations

我们需要大力投资气候模型、观测

and basic science

和基础科学

to be able to predict climate much better than we can today

来获得比今天更好气候预测，

and manage both our accidental and any intentional interventions.

并管理我们任何有意 或无意的干预措施。

And it could be urgent.

这可能很紧急。

Recent scientific reports predict that in the next few decades,

最近的科学报告预测，未来几十年，

earth's fever is on a path to devastation:

地球的发热正走向毁灭：

extreme heat and fires,

酷热及火灾，

major loss of ocean life,

海洋生命的大面积死亡，

collapse of Arctic ice,

北极冰崩，

displacement and suffering for hundreds of millions of people.

数亿人口流离失所，饱受苦难。

The fever could even reach tipping points where warming takes over

此类气候升温甚至会达到 临界点，变成温暖主导，

and human efforts are no longer enough

直到人类的努力再也不能够

to counter accelerating changes in natural systems.

扭转自然系统的加速变化。

To prevent this circumstance,

为了防止这种情况发生，

the UN's International Panel on Climate Change predicts

联合国气候变化国际小组预测，

that we need to stop and even reverse emissions by 2050.

我们需要在 2050 年停止， 甚至逆转温室气体排放。

How? We have to quickly and radically transform major economic sectors,

怎样实现？我们需要主要 经济部门的快速和根本变革，

including energy, construction, agriculture, transportation and others.

包括能源，建筑，农业，交通和其他。

And it is imperative that we do this as fast as we can.

我们必须尽快做到这一点。

But our fever is now so high

但我们地球的发热现在如此之高，

that climate experts say we also have to remove

以致气候专家说我们还需要移除

massive quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere,

大气中的海量二氧化碳，

possibly 10 times all of the world's annual emissions,

可能是世界年排放量的 10 倍，

in ways that aren't proven yet.

用还没有验证过的方式。

Right now, we have slow-moving solutions to a fast-moving problem.

现在，我们对一个快速变化的问题 有一个缓慢发展的解决方案。

Even with the most optimistic assumptions,

即便用最乐观的预估，

our exposure to risk in the next 10 to 30 years

我们在接下来 10-30 年要面对的风险

is unacceptably high, in my opinion.

也是无法承受的，就我的观点而言。

Could interventions like these provide fast-acting medicine if we need it

如果我们需要这样的干预措施来 降低地球的温度，同时从根本上解决问题，

to reduce the earth's fever while we address its underlying causes?

那么这些干预措施能否 提供快速见效的药物呢？

There are real concerns about this idea.

人们对这些想法存在切实担忧。

Some people are very worried that even researching these interventions

有些人非常担心即便 是研究这些干预措施

could provide an excuse to delay efforts to reduce emissions.

都可能会给推迟减排努力提供借口。

This is also known as a moral hazard.

这里也存在道德风险。

But, like most medicines,

但是，就像大部分药品，

interventions are more dangerous the more that you do,

干预越多越危险，

so research actually tends to draw out the fact

所以研究者倾向于得提出这个事实，

that we absolutely, positively cannot continue

即我们绝对不能继续

to fill up the atmosphere with greenhouse gases,

用温室气体填充大气，

that these kinds of alternatives are risky

这些替代方式是有风险的，

and if we were to use them,

如果我们使用它们，

we would need to use as little as possible.

我们需要尽可能少地使用。

But even so,

但即便如此，

could we ever learn enough about these interventions

我们能否足够了解这些干预，

to manage the risk?

从而用它们来管理风险？

Who would make decisions about when and how to intervene?

谁来做决定什么时候和如何干预？

What if some people are worse off,

如果有些人情况糟糕，

or they just think they are?

或者他们这样认为呢？

These are really hard problems.

这些都是困难的问题。

But what really worries me is that as climate impacts worsen,

但真正让我担忧的是 随着气候影响恶化，

leaders will be called on to respond by any means available.

各国领导人将会被要求用 现存的各种方式做出反应。

I for one don't want them to act without real information

我不希望他们在没有真实信息

and much better options.

和更多好的选项的情况下行动。

Scientists think it will take a decade of research

在我们能够开发和利用这些干预措施前，

just to assess these interventions,

科学家认为需要 10 年的研究

before we ever were to develop or use them.

才能评估它们的效果。

Yet today, the global level of investment in these interventions

然而今天，对这些干预的 全球级别的投入

is effectively zero.

基本上是零。

So, we need to move quickly

所以，我们需要快速行动，

if we want policymakers to have real information

如果我们想要政策制定者具备

on this kind of emergency medicine.

这种应急医药的真实信息。

There is hope!

希望是存在的！

The world has solved these kinds of problems before.

世界曾经解决过类似的问题。

In the 1970s, we identified an existential threat

在 1970 年，我们发现了保护臭氧层

to our protective ozone layer.

所面临的威胁。

In the 1980s, scientists, politicians and industry

在 1980 年代，科学家， 政治家和工业界

came together in a solution to replace the chemicals causing the problem.

通过合作找到了引发这个问题 的化学物品的替代解决方案。

They achieved this with the only legally binding environmental agreement

他们通过世界各国签署 的唯一具有法律约束力

signed by all countries in the world,

的环境协定实现了这一目标，

the Montreal Protocol.

《蒙特利尔议定书》。

Still in force today,

该协议今天仍然有效，

it has resulted in a recovery of the ozone layer

它已经让臭氧层得到恢复，

and is the most successful environmental protection effort

并且它是人类历史上最成功的

in human history.

环境保护努力。

We have a far greater threat now,

我们现在面临着更大的威胁，

but we do have the ability to develop and agree on solutions

但我们有能力去开发和通过

to protect people

保护人们和恢复

and restore our climate to health.

我们气候健康的解决方案。

This could mean that to remain safe,

这可能意味着要保持安全，

we reflect sunlight for a few decades,

我们要反射阳光几十年，

while we green our industries and remove CO2.

同时净化我们的工业 和消除二氧化碳。

It definitely means we must work now

这无疑意味着， 我们必须从现在开始着手，

to understand our options for this kind of emergency medicine.

了解我们对这种紧急医疗的选择。

Thank you,

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）