Emergency medicine for our climate fever | Kelly Wanser

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

I'm here to talk to you about something important that may be new to you.

今天我來跟大家談的重要主題， 對各位來說可能是新的。

The governments of the world

世界上的政府將要進行 一項無意的實驗，

are about to conduct an unintentional experiment

on our climate.

對象是我們的氣候。

In 2020, new rules will require ships to lower their sulfur emissions

2020 年，新規定會要求 船隻降低它們的硫排放，

by scrubbing their dirty exhaust

做法包括淨化排出的骯髒廢氣，

or switching to cleaner fuels.

或者改用更乾淨的燃料。

For human health, this is really good,

對人類的健康來說，這是好事，

but sulfur particles in the emission of ships

但，船隻排放氣體中的硫粒子

also have an effect on clouds.

對雲也會有影響。

This is a satellite image of marine clouds

這是海洋雲層的衛星影像，

off the Pacific West Coast of the United States.

地點是美國太平洋西岸之外。

The streaks in the clouds are created by the exhaust from ships.

雲層中的條紋是 船隻的廢氣所造成。

Ships' emissions include both greenhouse gases,

船隻排放的不只是

會把熱長時間困住的溫室氣體，

which trap heat over long periods of time,

and particulates like sulfates that mix with clouds

還有和雲混合在一起的 微粒，像是硫酸鹽，

and temporarily make them brighter.

會讓雲層暫時看起來更亮。

Brighter clouds reflect more sunlight back to space,

比較亮的雲會把 更多陽光反射回太空，

cooling the climate.

讓氣候冷卻。

So in fact,

所以，事實上，

humans are currently running two unintentional experiments

人類目前無意間正在 對氣候進行兩項實驗。

on our climate.

In the first one, we're increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases

在第一項實驗中， 我們增加溫室氣體的濃度，

and gradually warming the earth system.

讓地球系統漸漸暖化。

This works something like a fever in the human body.

這就像是人體發燒一樣。

If the fever remains low, its effects are mild,

若發燒的溫度不高，影響就很輕，

but as the fever rises, damage grows more severe

但如果發燒的溫度越高， 傷害就會越嚴重，

and eventually devastating.

最終會具有毀滅性。

We're seeing a little of this now.

這種狀況，現在能看到一點。

In our other experiment,

在另一項實驗中， 我們打算要把一層粒子移除，

we're planning to remove a layer of particles

that brighten clouds and shield us from some of this warming.

且是讓雲更亮、協助我們 抵禦部分暖化的那一層。

The effect is strongest in ocean clouds like these,

影響最大的是海洋雲層，像這些，

and scientists expect the reduction of sulfur emissions from ships next year

科學家預期，

明年，來自船隻的硫排放量減少，

to produce a measurable increase in global warming.

會造成明顯的全球暖化增加。

Bit of a shocker?

有點驚訝？

In fact, most emissions contain sulfates that brighten clouds:

事實上，大部分的排放氣體 包含讓雲層變亮的硫酸鹽：

coal, diesel exhaust, forest fires.

煤、柴油廢氣、森林大火。

Scientists estimate that the total cooling effect from emission particles,

排放氣體中的粒子 被稱為浮質，科學家估計，

which they call aerosols when they're in the climate,

浮質在氣候中所產生的冷卻效應

may be as much as all of the warming we've experienced up until now.

可能等同於我們目前 所經歷到的所有暖化。

There's a lot of uncertainty around this effect,

這個效應還有許多不確定性存在，

and it's one of the major reasons why we have difficulty predicting climate,

它也是我們很難預測 氣候的主要原因之一，

but this is cooling that we'll lose as emissions fall.

但，當排放下降時， 我們就會失去這種冷卻。

So to be clear, humans are currently cooling the planet

所以，明確來說，人類目前靠著

by dispersing particles into the atmosphere at massive scale.

將粒子在大氣中大規模 傳播開來的方式來冷卻地球。

We just don't know how much, and we're doing it accidentally.

我們只是不知道效果多大， 且我們並非刻意要做的。

That's worrying,

那很人讓憂心，

but it could mean that we have a fast-acting way to reduce warming,

但那可能意味著，我們有種 快速作用的方法來減輕暖化，

emergency medicine for our climate fever if we needed it,

在氣候發燒時， 我們會需要這種緊急藥物，

and it's a medicine with origins in nature.

且這種藥物的來源是大自然。

This is a NASA simulation of earth's atmosphere,

這是美國太空總署 對地球大氣做的模擬，

showing clouds and particles moving over the planet.

顯示出雲層及粒子 在地球上的移動。

The brightness is the Sun's light reflecting from particles in clouds,

陽光被雲層中的粒子 反射，造成那些亮光。

and this reflective shield is one of the primary ways

這種反射屏障是大自然用來確保 地球溫度夠低的主要方式之一，

that nature keeps the planet cool enough for humans

這樣人類及所有我們 所知的生命才能生存。

and all of the life that we know.

In 2015, scientists assessed possibilities for rapidly cooling climate.

2015 年，

科學家評估了快速 冷卻氣候的可能性。

They discounted things like mirrors in space,

他們評估在太空中放置鏡子、

ping-pong balls in the ocean, plastic sheets on the Arctic,

在海洋中放置乒乓球、

在北極圈放置塑膠板等方法，

and they found that the most viable approaches

他們發現，最可行的方法都會涉及

involved slightly increasing this atmospheric reflectivity.

將這種大氣反射能力稍稍提高。

In fact, it's possible that reflecting just one or two percent more sunlight

事實上，有可能，只要從大氣

再多反射 1% 或 2% 的陽光，

from the atmosphere

could offset two degrees Celsius or more of warming.

就能抵消掉攝氏兩度以上的暖化。

Now, I'm a technology executive, not a scientist.

我是技術主管，不是科學家。

About a decade ago, concerned about climate,

大約十年前，出於對氣候的關心，

I started to talk with scientists about potential countermeasures to warming.

我開始和科學家討論 對抗暖化的可能手段。

These conversations grew into collaborations

這些對談演變成了合作，

that became the Marine Cloud Brightening Project,

後來便衍生出了我即將談到的 海洋雲層亮化計畫，

which I'll talk about momentarily,

and the nonprofit policy organization SilverLining, where I am today.

以及非營利政策組織「銀襯」， 我現在就隸屬這個組織。

I work with politicians, researchers,

我合作的對象包括 政治人物、研究者、

members of the tech industry and others

科技產業的人等等，

to talk about some of these ideas.

我們會談這些點子。

Early on, I met British atmospheric scientist John Latham,

初期，我認識了英國的 大氣科學家約翰·萊瑟姆，

who proposed cooling the climate the way that the ships do,

他提出比照船隻的方式 來將氣候冷卻，

but with a natural source of particles:

但改用天然的粒子來源：

sea-salt mist from seawater

來自海水的海鹽霧，

sprayed from ships into areas of susceptible clouds over the ocean.

從船隻上噴灑到海洋上方 容易受影響的雲層中。

The approach became known by the name I gave it then,

這個方法後來為人所知的名稱 是我取的：「海洋雲層亮化」。

"marine cloud brightening."

Early modeling studies suggested that by deploying marine cloud brightening

早期的建模研究指出， 只要對 10%~20%

in just 10 to 20 percent of susceptible ocean clouds,

容易受影響的雲層 使用海洋雲層亮化法，

it might be possible to offset as much as two degrees Celsius's warming.

就有可能可以抵消 高達攝氏兩度的暖化。

It might even be possible to brighten clouds in local regions

甚至有可能讓地區性的雲層

to reduce the impacts caused by warming ocean surface temperatures.

也亮起來，減少暖化海洋 表面溫度所造成的影響。

For example, regions such as the Gulf Atlantic

比如海灣大西洋等地區，

might be cooled in the months before a hurricane season

在颶風季之前的幾個月 可被冷卻下來，

to reduce the force of storms.

減輕暴風雨的威力。

Or, it might be possible to cool waters flowing onto coral reefs

或，有些珊瑚礁被熱到無法招架，

可能可以冷卻流入珊瑚礁的水，

overwhelmed by heat stress,

like Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

比如澳洲的大堡礁。

But these ideas are only theoretical,

但這些點子只是理論性的，

and brightening marine clouds is not the only way

且，若要增加大氣的陽光反射，

to increase the reflection of the sunlight from the atmosphere.

亮化海洋雲層並非唯一的方法。

Another occurs when large volcanoes release material with enough force

另一種方法是，大型火山 用足夠的力量釋放出物質，

to reach the upper layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere.

推送到大氣的上層，平流層。

When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991,

1991 年皮納圖博火山爆發時

釋出物質到平流層中，包括硫酸鹽，

it released material into the stratosphere,

including sulfates that mix with the atmosphere to reflect sunlight.

而硫酸鹽會和大氣混合反射陽光。

This material remained and circulated around the planet.

這些留存的物質繼續繞著地球轉，

It was enough to cool the climate by over half a degree Celsius

夠把氣候降低至少攝氏半度，

for about two years.

維持了兩年左右。

This cooling led to a striking increase in Arctic ice cover in 1992,

這次降溫導致 1992 年 北極圈的冰量大增，

which dropped in subsequent years as the particles fell back to earth.

粒子回落地面後的接下來幾年， 冰量又下降了。

But the volcanic phenomenon led Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen

但這種火山現象讓 諾貝爾獎得主保羅·克魯岑

to propose the idea that dispersing particles into the stratosphere

提出一個想法：用有控制的方式

in a controlled way might be a way to counter global warming.

將粒子傳播到平流層， 可能可以對抗全球暖化。

Now, this has risks that we don't understand,

這個方法有些 我們不了解的風險存在，

including things like heating up the stratosphere

包括讓平流層的溫度上升，

or damage to the ozone layer.

或者破壞臭氧層。

Scientists think that there could be safe approaches to this,

科學家認為，應該有辦法 可以安全地執行這個方法，

but is this really where we are?

但我們真的走到這個地步了嗎？ 這個方法真的值得考慮嗎？

Is this really worth considering?

This is a simulation

這是美國國家大氣研究中心

from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research

用全球氣候模型所做的模擬，

global climate model showing, earth surface temperatures through 2100.

顯示一直到 2100 年的 地球表面溫度。

The globe on the left visualizes our current trajectory,

左邊的地球用視覺化 呈現我們目前的軌道，

and on the right, a world where particles are introduced into the stratosphere

右邊呈現的則是當粒子在 2020 年

被漸漸送入平流層之後的地球，

gradually in 2020,

and maintained through 2100.

這些粒子一直維持到 2100 年。

Intervention keeps surface temperatures near those of today,

進行干預手段之後， 表面溫度維持在和現今差不多，

while without it, temperatures rise well over three degrees.

若沒有干預，溫度上升至少三度。

This could be the difference between a safe and an unsafe world.

兩者之間的差別，可能就是 安全與不安全的世界。

So, if there's even a chance that this could be close to reality,

所以，只要有一點點可能性， 這個模擬和現實夠接近，

is this something we should consider seriously?

我們是否應該認真考慮這個方法？

Today, there are no capabilities,

現今，沒有什麼能力

and scientific knowledge is extremely limited.

和科學知識是極度受限的。

We don't know whether these types of interventions are even feasible,

我們甚至不知道這些 干預方式是否可行，

or how to characterize their risks.

也不很清楚它們的風險。

Researchers hope to explore some basic questions

研究者希望能去 探究一些基本的問題，

that might help us know whether or not these might be real options

來協助我們了解這些選項 是否真的是可行的，

or whether we should rule them out.

或我們是否該將它們排除。

It requires multiple ways of studying the climate system,

這會需要多種研究氣候系統的方法，

including computer models to forecast changes,

包括電腦模型來預測改變、

analytic techniques like machine learning,

分析技術如機械學習，

and many types of observations.

以及數種觀察方法。

And though it's controversial,

雖然很具爭議性，

it's also critical that researchers develop core technologies

但很重要的是研究者 要發展核心技術，

and perform small-scale, real-world experiments.

並進行小規模的真實世界實驗。

There are two research programs proposing experiments like this.

有兩個研究專案提出像這樣的實驗。

At Harvard, the SCoPEx experiment would release very small amounts

哈佛大學的「平流層控制擾動實驗」

會用氣球來釋放

of sulfates, calcium carbonate and water into the stratosphere with a balloon,

非常少量的硫酸鹽、 鈣和水到平流層中，

to study chemistry and physics effects.

來研究化學和物理效應。

How much material?

多少物質？

Less than the amount released in one minute of flight

比一架商業飛機飛行 一分鐘所釋放的量還少。

from a commercial aircraft.

So this is definitely not dangerous,

所以這肯定沒有危險性，

and it may not even be scary.

甚至一點也不嚇人。

At the University of Washington,

在華盛頓大學，

scientists hope to spray a fine mist of salt water into clouds

科學家希望在一連串 陸地和海洋的測試中，

能將鹽水的細霧噴灑到雲層中。

in a series of land and ocean tests.

If those are successful, this would culminate in experiments

如果那些測試成功， 最後就能做實驗，

to measurably brighten an area of clouds over the ocean.

將海洋上的一塊雲層明顯亮化。

The marine cloud brightening effort is the first to develop any technology

海洋雲層亮化方法是最早開發出

for generating aerosols for atmospheric sunlight reflection in this way.

用這種方式產生浮質 來反射大氣陽光的技術。

It requires producing very tiny particles --

這個方法需要產生 非常小的粒子——

think about the mist that comes out of an asthma inhaler --

想想看氣喘吸入器吸出的霧——

at massive scale -- so think of looking up at a cloud.

做成大規模——所以， 想像向上看著一片雲。

It's a tricky engineering problem.

這是個棘手的工程問題。

So this one nozzle they developed

他們開發出的這種噴嘴 每秒能產生三兆個粒子，

generates three trillion particles per second,

80 nanometers in size,

大小為八十奈米，

from very corrosive saltwater.

從非常有侵蝕性的鹽水產生。

It was developed by a team of retired engineers in Silicon Valley --

是由矽谷的一個 退休工程師團隊所開發的——

here they are --

就是他們——

working full-time for six years, without pay, for their grandchildren.

全職無薪工作了六年，

只為了他們的孫子。

It will take a few million dollars and another year or two

要花幾百萬美元 和再多一、兩年的時間，

to develop the full spray system they need to do these experiments.

才能開發出這些實驗 需要的噴灑系統。

In other parts of the world, research efforts are emerging,

在世界上其他地方， 也有研究成果出現，

including small modeling programs at Beijing Normal University in China,

許多機構都有小型建模計畫， 包括中國北京師範大學、

the Indian Institute of Science,

印度科學理工學院、

a proposed center for climate repair at Cambridge University in the UK

英國劍橋大學的 一個氣候修復中心，

and the DECIMALS Fund,

以及 DECIMALS 基金，

which sponsors researchers in global South countries

這個基金旨在贊助 南半球國家的研究者

to study the potential impacts of these sunlight interventions

來研究在他們的地區內 這些陽光干預方式的可能影響。

in their part of the world.

But all of these programs, including the experimental ones,

但，所有這些計畫， 包括實驗性的計畫，

lack significant funding.

都缺乏大量的資金。

And understanding these interventions is a hard problem.

了解這些干預方式是個難題。

The earth is a vast, complex system

地球是一個巨大、複雜的系統，

and we need major investments in climate models, observations

我們需要對氣候模型、觀察，

and basic science

及基礎科學做大量的投資，

to be able to predict climate much better than we can today

才能夠把氣候預測 做得比現今更好許多，

and manage both our accidental and any intentional interventions.

並管理好我們有意、 無意所做出的干預。

And it could be urgent.

這件事十分緊迫。

Recent scientific reports predict that in the next few decades,

近期的科學報告預測， 在接下來幾十年間，

earth's fever is on a path to devastation:

地球的發燒將會走上通往毀滅之路：

extreme heat and fires,

高熱和大火、

major loss of ocean life,

大量失去海洋生命、

collapse of Arctic ice,

北極圈融冰、

displacement and suffering for hundreds of millions of people.

數億人被迫遷移和受苦。

The fever could even reach tipping points where warming takes over

發燒的情況甚至可能到達臨界點， 之後暖化就會接手主導，

and human efforts are no longer enough

而人類再怎麼努力也不夠

to counter accelerating changes in natural systems.

對抗大自然系統中 越來越快速的改變。

To prevent this circumstance,

為了預防這個狀況發生，

the UN's International Panel on Climate Change predicts

聯合國的政府間氣候變化 專門委員會預測

that we need to stop and even reverse emissions by 2050.

我們必須要在 2050 年前 阻止甚至逆轉排放。

How? We have to quickly and radically transform major economic sectors,

怎麼做？

我們必須要大刀闊斧 且快速地轉變主要的經濟部門，

including energy, construction, agriculture, transportation and others.

包括能量、建設、農業、交通等部門。

And it is imperative that we do this as fast as we can.

而我們必須要盡快去做。

But our fever is now so high

但，現在，我們的發燒已經高到

that climate experts say we also have to remove

氣候專家說我們也必須要

massive quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere,

將大氣中的大量二氧化碳給除去，

possibly 10 times all of the world's annual emissions,

要除去的量可能是 全世界年排放量的十倍，

in ways that aren't proven yet.

且尚未證實能採用的方法。

Right now, we have slow-moving solutions to a fast-moving problem.

目前，對於這個快速加劇的問題， 我們只有緩慢的解決方案。

Even with the most optimistic assumptions,

就算是做最樂觀的假設，

our exposure to risk in the next 10 to 30 years

依我所見，在接下來十到三十年，

is unacceptably high, in my opinion.

我們的風險會高到讓人無法接受。

Could interventions like these provide fast-acting medicine if we need it

當我們正在處理地球 發燒的背後成因時，

像這類的干預方式能否扮演減輕 發燒所必須要的快速反應藥物？

to reduce the earth's fever while we address its underlying causes?

There are real concerns about this idea.

這個想法有很讓人擔憂之處。

Some people are very worried that even researching these interventions

有些人非常擔心， 即使只是研究這些干預方式

could provide an excuse to delay efforts to reduce emissions.

也會讓我們有藉口延緩 減少排放該做的事。

This is also known as a moral hazard.

這也就是大家所知道的道德風險。

But, like most medicines,

但，和大部分藥物一樣，

interventions are more dangerous the more that you do,

干預方式是用得越多就越危險，

so research actually tends to draw out the fact

所以，研究其實傾向認為

that we absolutely, positively cannot continue

我們肯定絕對不可能

to fill up the atmosphere with greenhouse gases,

繼續將溫室氣體放入大氣中，

that these kinds of alternatives are risky

這些替代方案是很冒險的，

and if we were to use them,

如果我們非用它們不可，

we would need to use as little as possible.

也必須要用要少越好。

But even so,

但，即便如此，

could we ever learn enough about these interventions

我們有沒有可能 對這些干預方式夠了解

到足以管理這種風險？

to manage the risk?

Who would make decisions about when and how to intervene?

至於何時及如何使用 干預方式，又要由誰來決定？

What if some people are worse off,

如果，有些人的狀況越來越糟呢？

or they just think they are?

或他們只是自己這麼認為？

These are really hard problems.

這些都是難題。

But what really worries me is that as climate impacts worsen,

但，真正讓我擔心的是，

隨著氣候的影響變更糟，

leaders will be called on to respond by any means available.

領導人會被要求用任何 可能的手段做出因應。

I for one don't want them to act without real information

我個人不希望他們在沒有真實資訊

及更佳選項的情況下採取行動，

and much better options.

Scientists think it will take a decade of research

科學家認為，光是評估這些干預方式

just to assess these interventions,

就要花十年的時間來研究，

before we ever were to develop or use them.

然後才能開發或使用它們。

Yet today, the global level of investment in these interventions

但，現今，全球對於這些干預方式

is effectively zero.

所做的投資實際上是零。

So, we need to move quickly

因此，我們必須要快點行動，

if we want policymakers to have real information

才能讓政策制訂者擁有

關於這類緊急藥物的真實資訊。

on this kind of emergency medicine.

There is hope!

還有希望！

The world has solved these kinds of problems before.

這個世界以前解決過這類問題。

In the 1970s, we identified an existential threat

七○年代，我們發現 保護我們存在的臭氧層

to our protective ozone layer.

出現了威脅。

In the 1980s, scientists, politicians and industry

八○年代，科學家、政治人物、產業

came together in a solution to replace the chemicals causing the problem.

齊聚一堂提出解決方案， 取代造成問題的化學物質。

They achieved this with the only legally binding environmental agreement

他們能達成這個目標，靠的是唯一

由世界各國所簽署 且有法律約束力的環境協議，

signed by all countries in the world,

the Montreal Protocol.

蒙特婁議定書。

Still in force today,

至今仍然有效力，

it has resulted in a recovery of the ozone layer

它讓臭氧層恢復了，

and is the most successful environmental protection effort

是人類歷史上最成功的 環境保護成果。

in human history.

We have a far greater threat now,

現在我們的威脅更大許多，

but we do have the ability to develop and agree on solutions

但我們確實有能力 開發解決方案並取得共識，

to protect people

來保護人類，

and restore our climate to health.

讓我們的氣候恢復健康。

This could mean that to remain safe,

這可能意味著，若要保持安全，

we reflect sunlight for a few decades,

我們可以反射陽光幾十年，

while we green our industries and remove CO2.

同時將我們的產業綠化， 並除去二氧化碳。

It definitely means we must work now

這絕對意味著， 我們現在必須要努力

to understand our options for this kind of emergency medicine.

去了解我們有哪些選項 能做為應急藥物。

Thank you,

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）