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譯者: Pei-Chen Benson Liu
審譯者: Helen Chang
00:12
Value creation.
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創造價值
00:14
Wealth creation.
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創造財富
00:16
These are really powerful words.
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都是很有份量的詞
00:17
Maybe you think of finance,
you think of innovation,
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也許你聯想到金融、創新
00:20
you think of creativity.
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或是創意
00:22
But who are the value creators?
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但究竟誰創造了價值?
00:24
If we use that word, we must be implying
that some people aren't creating value.
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說這話的意思就是
並非所有人都在創造價值
00:28
Who are they?
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誰沒貢獻價值?
00:29
The couch potatoes?
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整天窩在沙發看電視的人?
00:30
The value extractors?
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萃取價值的人?
00:32
The value destroyers?
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破壞價值的人?
00:34
To answer this question, we actually
have to have a proper theory of value.
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要解答這問題
我們先要有一個像樣的價值理論
00:39
And I'm here as an economist
to break it to you
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今天我以經濟學家的身分
為各位解答
00:42
that we've kind of lost our way
on this question.
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我們迷失在這個問題上了
00:44
Now, don't look so surprised.
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別這麼驚訝
00:46
What I mean by that is,
we've stopped contesting it.
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我的意思是說
我們已經全盤接受
00:50
We've stopped actually asking
really tough questions
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也不再強硬質疑
00:53
about what is the difference between
value creation and value extraction,
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創造價值和萃取價值的不同
生產活動和非生產活動的差異
00:57
productive and unproductive activities.
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00:59
Now, let me just give you
some context here.
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我給各位講講背景知識
01:01
2009 was just about
a year and a half after
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2009 年當時
近代最嚴重的其中一次金融危機
01:05
one of the biggest
financial crises of our time,
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才解除不到一年半
01:07
second only to the 1929 Great Depression,
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僅次於 1929 年的大蕭條
01:11
and the CEO of Goldman Sachs said
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高盛集團執行長聲稱
他們的員工世上最有生產力
01:13
Goldman Sachs workers are the most
productive in the world.
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01:17
Productivity and productiveness,
for an economist,
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經濟學家認為生產力高低
01:20
actually has a lot to do with value.
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實際上和價值有很大關係
01:21
You're producing stuff,
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你生產東西
01:23
you're producing it
dynamically and efficiently.
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用的是動態、有效率的方法
01:25
You're also producing things
that the world needs, wants and buys.
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那些東西也是大家
所需、所想、所買
01:28
Now, how this could have been said
just one year after the crisis,
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危機才過短短一年半
那樣的說辭從何而生
01:32
which actually had this bank
as well as many other banks --
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而且這家銀行
我只是拿高盛舉例
01:35
I'm just kind of picking
on Goldman Sachs here --
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當然還有其他很多銀行
01:37
at the center of the crisis, because
they had actually produced
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跟金融危機一點也脫不了關係
因為這些銀行製造出
01:40
some pretty problematic financial products
mainly but not only related to mortgages,
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一些出問題的金融產品
主要是抵押貸款
01:45
which saw many thousands of people
actually lose their homes.
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讓成千上萬人失去房產
01:49
In 2010, in just one month, September,
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2010 年 9 月,僅僅這一個月內
01:52
120,000 people lost their homes
through the foreclosures of that crisis.
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有 120,000 人因為這次危機
房子遭銀行徵收而無家可歸
01:58
Between 2007 and 2010,
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2007 至 2010 年間
02:00
8.8 million people lost their jobs.
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880 萬人失業
02:03
The bank also had to then
be bailed out by the US taxpayer
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這家銀行更是用了
美國納稅人 100 億美金
02:08
for the sum of 10 billion dollars.
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才脫離險境
納稅人可沒自詡他們創造了價值
02:11
We didn't hear the taxpayers bragging
that they were value creators,
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但很明顯的
02:14
but obviously, having bailed out
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納稅人應以自己為榮
02:16
one of the biggest value-creating
productive companies,
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拯救了這些
創造價值、又有生產力的大公司
02:19
perhaps they should have.
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02:20
What I want to do next
is kind of ask ourselves
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我接著想問大家
02:23
how we lost our way,
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我們如何迷失了方向
02:25
how it could be, actually,
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我們怎麼會對那樣的陳述
02:26
that a statement like that
could almost go unnoticed,
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幾乎毫無所覺
02:29
because it wasn't an after-dinner joke;
it was said very seriously.
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因為那席話十分認真
並非只是玩笑
02:33
So what I want to do is bring you back
300 years in economic thinking,
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我想帶大家回顧
經濟概念的 300 年歷史
02:37
when, actually, the term was contested.
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當時,光是名稱本身就備受爭議
02:40
It doesn't mean that
they were right or wrong,
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那些公司並無對錯
02:42
but you couldn't just call yourself
a value creator, a wealth creator.
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但不能無憑無據
給自己冠上價值、財富創造者的名號
02:45
There was a lot of debate
within the economics profession.
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這個問題也曾激起經濟學界熱烈討論
02:48
And what I want to argue is,
we've kind of lost our way,
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我認為我們已經迷失方向了
02:51
and that has actually allowed this term,
"wealth creation" and "value,"
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才讓「創造財富」、「價值」這些字
失其份量,得來全不費工夫
02:55
to become quite weak and lazy
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02:57
and also easily captured.
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可以脫口而出
02:59
OK? So let's start --
I hate to break it to you --
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我很不想提起這件事
03:02
300 years ago.
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300 年前
03:03
Now, what was interesting 300 years ago
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300 年前,特別的是
03:05
is the society was still
an agricultural type of society.
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整個社會仍然奉行農業
03:09
So it's not surprising
that the economists of the time,
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想當然耳
我們稱那時的經濟學家是重農主義者
03:12
who were called the Physiocrats,
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03:14
actually put the center
of their attention to farm labor.
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他們把重心擺在農業勞力
03:18
When they said, "Where
does value come from?"
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當他們問:「價值從何來?」
03:20
they looked at farming.
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考慮的是農事
03:21
And they produced what I think was
probably the world's first spreadsheet,
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魁奈 (François Quesnay) 帶領其他人
03:25
called the "Tableau Economique,"
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畫了可能是史上第一張表格
03:27
and this was done by François Quesnay,
one of the leaders of this movement.
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稱作「經濟表」
03:31
And it was very interesting,
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有趣的是
03:32
because they didn't just say,
"Farming is the source of value."
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他們不只認為「農事創造價值」
03:35
They then really worried about
what was happening to that value
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還很苦惱這些價值究竟是如何產生的
03:38
when it was produced.
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03:39
What the Tableau Economique does --
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經濟表的功用便是
03:41
and I've tried to make it
a bit simpler here for you --
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我會試著不說得那麼難
03:44
is it broke down the classes
in society into three.
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經濟表將社會分為三個等第
03:46
The farmers, creating value,
were called the "productive class."
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創造價值的農民
也叫作「生產階級」
03:50
Then others who were just
moving some of this value around
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其他人便只是四處搬動這些價值
03:52
but it was useful, it was necessary,
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但這種行為很有用且必要
03:54
these were the merchants;
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這些人是商人
03:55
they were called the "proprietors."
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稱作「業主」
03:57
And then there was another class
that was simply charging the farmers a fee
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還有另一階級
他們只用現有資產
04:01
for an existing asset, the land,
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也就是土地,向農民收錢
04:03
and they called them the "sterile class."
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稱為「不事生產階級」
04:05
Now, this is a really heavy-hitting word
if you think what it means:
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仔細想想的話
這詞其實很沈重,意思是:
04:09
that if too much of the resources
are going to the landlords,
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如果地主得到太多資源
04:13
you're actually putting the reproduction
potential of the system at risk.
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則事實上整個系統
生生不息的潛力將受到威脅
04:18
And so all these little arrows there
were their way of simulating --
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這些箭號是當時經濟學者在模擬
04:21
again, spreadsheets and simulators,
these guys were really using big data --
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看到空白表格和模型
不得不說他們運用了大數據
04:25
they were simulating what would
actually happen under different scenarios
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他們模擬不同情境
04:28
if the wealth actually wasn't
reinvested back into production
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如果財富不再投入生產
讓土地更有生產力
04:32
to make that land more productive
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04:34
and was actually being
siphoned out in different ways,
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而是以不同方法分離出去
04:36
or even if the proprietors
were getting too much.
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或如果甚至是業主獲利太多
04:39
And what later happened in the 1800s,
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之後 1800 年代
04:41
and this was no longer
the Agricultural Revolution
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農業革命已不復存在
04:44
but the Industrial Revolution,
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工業革命取而代之
04:45
is that the classical economists,
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古典經濟學者
04:47
and these were Adam Smith, David Ricardo,
Karl Marx, the revolutionary,
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像是 Adam Smith,
David Ricardo, Karl Marx
開創新制
04:51
also asked the question "What is value?"
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也想瞭解「價值是什麼?」
04:54
But it's not surprising that
because they were actually living
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但他們實際生活在工業化時代
04:57
through an industrial era
with the rise of machines and factories,
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機械、工廠到處林立
他們的答案是工業勞力
05:00
they said it was industrial labor.
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一點也不足為奇
05:02
So they had a labor theory of value.
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他們提出勞動價值說
05:05
But again, their focus was reproduction,
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重點仍是再生產
05:07
this real worry of what was happening
to the value that was created
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他們極力想找出
若價值分離到其他地方
05:10
if it was getting siphoned out.
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創造價值時會發生什麼事
05:12
And in "The Wealth of Nations,"
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Adam Smith 在《國富論》提到
05:13
Adam Smith had this really great example
of the pin factory where he said
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大頭針工廠這個很好的例子
05:17
if you only have one person
making every bit of the pin,
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如果要一個人負責全部的步驟
05:20
at most you can make one pin a day.
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一天最多就產一根大頭針
05:22
But if you actually invest in factory
production and the division of labor,
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但如果有資源
投入到工廠生產和勞力分工
05:26
new thinking --
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這是新的想法
05:27
today, we would use the word
"organizational innovation" --
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我們現在稱之為「組織創新」
05:30
then you could increase the productivity
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這樣生產力便會增加
05:32
and the growth and the wealth of nations.
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國家也會成長、更加富裕
05:34
So he showed that 10 specialized workers
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他提到了 10 位專業化的工人
05:37
who had been invested in,
in their human capital,
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他們的人力資本獲得資源
05:40
could produce 4,800 pins a day,
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一天可以生產 4,800 根大頭針
05:42
as opposed to just one
by an unspecialized worker.
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跟一名工人包攬全部工作的結果迥異
05:45
And he and his fellow classical economists
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Adam Smith 和其他古典經濟學家
05:48
also broke down activities
into productive and unproductive ones.
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也把各類活動分為
生產活動和非生產活動
05:51
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:52
And the unproductive ones weren't --
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這些非生產活動
05:54
I think you're laughing because
most of you are on that list, aren't you?
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你們在笑是因為自己也上榜了,對吧?
05:58
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:59
Lawyers! I think he was right
about the lawyers.
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律師!我想他把律師放上榜是對的
06:02
Definitely not the professors,
the letters of all kind people.
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教授真不該在榜上
其他職業也是
06:05
So lawyers, professors,
shopkeepers, musicians.
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律師、教授、店主、音樂家
06:09
He obviously hated the opera.
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他一定很討厭聽歌劇
06:11
He must have seen
the worst performance of his life
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他寫這本書前一晚
06:13
the night before writing this book.
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一定聽了最差勁的歌劇
06:15
There's at least
three professions up there
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名單中至少有三種職業
06:17
that have to do with the opera.
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跟歌劇有關
06:18
But this wasn't an exercise
of saying, "Don't do these things."
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但這份名單並非要人們
「不要去從事這些職業」
06:21
It was just, "What's going to happen
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而是在說
06:23
if we actually end up allowing
some parts of the economy to get too large
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「如果我們真的讓經濟的一部份
發展的太壯大
06:27
without really thinking about
how to increase the productivity
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還不設法增加這些價值來源的生產力
06:30
of the source of the value
that they thought was key,
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會發生什麼事?」
這裡價值來源指的是工業勞力
06:33
which was industrial labor.
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06:35
And again, don't ask yourself
is this right or is this wrong,
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不要太斟酌其中的對錯
06:38
it was just very contested.
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列這份名單本來就很有爭議
06:39
By making these lists,
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06:41
it actually forced them also
to ask interesting questions.
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也讓他們提出一些很有趣的問題
06:44
And their focus,
as the focus of the Physiocrats,
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他們和重農主義者其實都想知道
06:48
was, in fact, on these objective
conditions of production.
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生產的客觀條件
06:51
They also looked, for example,
at the class struggle.
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他們也研究其他事情,像是階級鬥爭
他們認定工資
06:54
Their understanding of wages
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06:55
had to do with the objective,
if you want, power relationships,
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跟這些客觀的權力階級有關係
06:59
the bargaining power of capital and labor.
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資方和勞方在工資上討價還價的能力
07:01
But again, factories, machines,
division of labor,
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工廠、機器、勞力分工
07:05
agricultural land
and what was happening to it.
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農業用土地,才是重點
07:07
So the big revolution
that then happened --
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重大變革接著發生
07:11
and this, by the way, is not often
taught in economics classes --
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順道一提
經濟學課堂裡通常不提這個
07:14
the big revolution that happened
with the current system
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現今我們的經濟思想
稱作新古典經濟學派
07:17
of economic thinking that we have,
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07:18
which is called "neoclassical economics,"
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發生重大變革
07:21
was that the logic completely changed.
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改變了整套邏輯思想
07:23
It changed in two ways.
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變動了兩個方面
07:25
It changed from this focus on
objective conditions to subjective ones.
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人們開始更關心主觀條件
而不是客觀條件
07:29
Let me explain what I mean by that.
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讓我解釋一下
07:31
Objective, in the way I just said.
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客觀,就像我剛說的
07:33
Subjective, in the sense that
all the attention went to
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主觀,大家更關注
07:36
how individuals of different sorts
make their decisions.
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不同類型的人如何做決定
07:39
OK, so workers are maximizing
their choices of leisure versus work.
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勞工試圖在工作
和休閒中找到最大效益
07:43
Consumers are maximizing
their so-called utility,
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消費者也想得到最多所謂的效用
07:46
which is a proxy for happiness,
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效用是幸福的代名詞
07:48
and firms are maximizing their profits.
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企業也想賺到最多的利益
07:51
And the idea behind this was that
then we can aggregate this up,
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我們可以累積這些效益
看看會有什麼結果
07:55
and we see what that turns into,
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就是背後的機制
07:56
which are these nice, fancy
supply-and-demand curves
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是這些完美、花俏的供需曲線
07:59
which produce a price,
174
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2250
可以計算出一個價格
08:01
an equilibrium price.
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一個均衡價格
08:02
It's an equilibrium price,
because we also added to it
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交叉點是一個均衡價格
因為我們也納入許多牛頓的物理等式
08:05
a lot of Newtonian physics equations
177
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2160
08:07
where centers of gravity are very much
part of the organizing principle.
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重心就是組織原則的一部分
08:11
But the second point here is that
that equilibrium price, or prices,
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第二點是由均衡價格揭示價值
08:15
reveal value.
180
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1816
08:17
So the revolution here is a change
from objective to subjective,
181
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此(經濟理論)變革
不只從客觀變為主觀觀點
08:20
but also the logic is no longer
one of what is value,
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邏輯也變為
不再考慮什麼有價值
08:24
how is it being determined,
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如何決定價值
08:25
what is the reproductive
potential of the economy,
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經濟體系的再生產潛力有多大
(上述不再)決定價格
08:28
which then leads to a theory of price
185
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2039
08:30
but rather the reverse:
186
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1199
反而是正好相反:
08:31
a theory of price and exchange
187
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由價格和交換理論揭示其價值
08:33
which reveals value.
188
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1330
08:35
Now, this is a huge change.
189
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2023
這是個重大的變化
08:37
And it's not just an academic exercise,
as fascinating as that might be.
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因為這不只跟學術有關
雖然學術上很有趣
08:41
It affects how we measure growth.
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1913
還會影響我們如何量測發展
08:43
It affects how we steer economies
to produce more of some activities,
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3811
會影響我們如何操縱經濟
增加或減少某些生產活動
08:46
less of others,
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1168
為何給予某些活動較多酬勞
08:48
how we also remunerate
some activities more than others.
194
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2703
08:50
And it also just kind of makes you think,
195
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2230
還會令你思考
08:53
you know, are you happy to get out of bed
if you're a value creator or not,
196
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3986
如果你沒創造價值的話
是否還願意起床工作
08:57
and how is the price system itself
if you aren't determining that?
197
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如果你沒參與決定
那麼價格體系本身會如何?
我剛剛說了
09:01
I mentioned it affects
how we think about output.
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我們對生產的看法會受到影響
09:04
If we only include, for example, in GDP,
199
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2728
如果我們只把定了價的行為
09:07
those activities that have prices,
200
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1727
舉例來說,納入 GDP
09:09
all sorts of really weird things happen.
201
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2267
很多奇怪的事會發生
09:11
Feminist economists
and environmental economists
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2302
女性主義經濟學家和環境經濟學家
09:13
have actually written
about this quite a bit.
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其實發表了很多相關研究
09:15
Let me give you some examples.
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1467
這邊有幾個例子
09:17
If you marry your babysitter,
GDP will go down, so do not do it.
205
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5434
如果你娶了你家的褓姆
GDP會下降
所以別這麼做
09:22
Do not be tempted to do this, OK?
206
562844
1638
別想著要這麼做,好嗎?
09:24
Because an activity that perhaps was
before being paid for is still being done
207
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3796
因為之前需要收費的生產活動
雖然現在還持續,卻已經免費了
09:28
but is no longer paid.
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568326
1152
(笑聲)
09:29
(Laughter)
209
569502
1095
09:30
If you pollute, GDP goes up.
210
570621
1351
如果你汙染環境,GDP 會上升
09:31
Still don't do it, but if you do it,
you'll help the economy.
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571996
2882
別汙染
但汙染對經濟有益
09:34
Why? Because we have to actually
pay someone to clean it.
212
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2827
為什麼?
因為我們需要付錢請人清理汙染
09:38
Now, what's also really interesting
is what happened to finance
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2976
金融體制發生的事情也同樣很有趣
09:41
in the financial sector in GDP.
214
581464
2021
計算 GDP 時
這個體制歸類在金融產業
09:43
This also, by the way, is something
I'm always surprised
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583509
2647
我一直很意外
09:46
that many economists don't know.
216
586180
1537
很多經濟學家不知道這件事
09:47
Up until 1970,
217
587741
1501
1970 年以前
09:49
most of the financial sector
was not even included in GDP.
218
589266
3715
大部分金融產業
還未納入 GDP 計算
09:53
It was kind of indirectly,
perhaps not knowingly,
219
593005
2497
重農主義者間接或不知覺地
09:55
still being seen through the eyes
of the Physiocrats
220
595526
2727
看穿這件事
09:58
as just kind of moving stuff around,
not actually producing anything new.
221
598277
4057
也就是他們所說的移動東西
卻沒有製造出任何新的出來
10:02
So only those activities
that had an explicit price were included.
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602358
4040
所以只將明確標價的活動納入計算
10:06
For example, if you went to get
a mortgage, you were charged a fee.
223
606422
3157
就像是申請抵押貸款要付手續費
10:09
That went into GDP and the national
income and product accounting.
224
609603
3390
會算進 GDP、國民所得、產品會計
但像是給付的淨利息卻不會算進去
10:13
But, for example,
net interest payments didn't,
225
613017
2753
10:15
the difference between
what banks were earning in interest
226
615794
3959
這個數字是銀行貸款給你所賺的利息
10:19
if they gave you a loan and what
they were paying out for a deposit.
227
619777
3232
和銀行付給存款人利息間的差額
這筆錢沒有納入
10:23
That wasn't being included.
228
623033
1335
10:24
And so the people doing the accounting
started to look at some data,
229
624392
3209
所以會計相關人員開始研究數據
10:27
which started to show
that the size of finance
230
627625
2731
發現金融制度的規模
10:30
and these net interest payments
231
630380
1482
還有這些給付的淨利息
10:31
were actually growing substantially.
232
631886
1800
都大幅的成長
10:33
And they called this
the "banking problem."
233
633710
2112
他們稱這個現象為「銀行業問題」
10:35
These were some people working
inside, actually, the United Nations
234
635846
3188
這些人其實是在
聯合國的一個組織工作
10:39
in a group called the Systems
of National [Accounts], SNA.
235
639058
2986
叫做國民經濟核算體系
10:42
They called it the "banking problem,"
236
642068
1789
他們稱之為「銀行業問題」
10:43
like, "Oh my God, this thing is huge,
and we're not even including it."
237
643881
3370
像是說:「天啊,
規模這麼大,卻沒有算進去」
他們沒實際去畫經濟表
10:47
So instead of stopping and actually
making that Tableau Economique
238
647275
3167
10:50
or asking some of these
fundamental questions
239
650466
2131
也沒問基礎的問題
10:52
that also the classicals were asking
about what is actually happening,
240
652621
3318
那些是古典派學者想知道的
10:55
the division of labor between different
types of activities in the economy,
241
655963
3569
經濟中不同類型活動間的實際分工
這些人只幫給付的淨利息取個名字
10:59
they simply gave these
net interest payments a name.
242
659556
2449
各商業銀行稱這個現象為
11:02
So the commercial banks, they called this
"financial intermediation."
243
662029
3330
「金融中介」
11:05
That went into the NIPA accounts.
244
665383
1898
也納入了國民帳戶
11:07
And the investment banks
were called the "risk-taking activities,"
245
667305
3640
投資銀行得到了
「風險承擔活動」的名號
11:10
and that went in.
246
670969
1151
也納入其中
11:12
In case I haven't explained this properly,
247
672144
2005
我怕我沒解釋清楚
這條紅線告訴我們
11:14
that red line is showing how much quicker
248
674173
1969
金融中介跟整個經濟體相比
11:16
financial intermediation
as a whole was growing
249
676166
2769
11:18
compared to the rest of the economy,
the blue line, industry.
250
678959
3193
也就是藍色這條線
成長的有多快
11:22
And so this was quite extraordinary,
251
682679
2070
這就是不尋常之處
11:24
because what actually happened,
and what we know today,
252
684749
2582
有很多關於這個主題的研究
11:27
and there's different people
writing about this,
253
687331
2266
這是英格蘭銀行的資料
11:29
this data here
is from the Bank of England,
254
689597
2171
因為就真實情況和我們所了解
11:31
is that lots of what finance
was actually doing
255
691768
2284
金融體制事實上
11:34
from the 1970s and '80s on
256
694052
1935
從 1970 到 80 年代
11:36
was basically financing itself:
257
696194
2530
其實就是在投資自己
11:38
finance financing finance.
258
698748
1853
金融業投資金融業
11:40
And what I mean by that is finance,
insurance and real estate.
259
700625
3531
我指的是金融、保險還有不動產業
11:44
In fact, in the UK,
260
704180
1603
其實在英國
11:45
something like between
10 and 20 percent of finance
261
705807
3097
真正進入到經濟體和產業的資金
11:48
finds its way into
the real economy, into industry,
262
708928
2537
大概有百分之十到二十
11:51
say, into the energy sector,
into pharmaceuticals,
263
711489
2668
像是進入能源產業、製藥展業
11:54
into the IT sector,
264
714181
1718
或是資訊科技產業
11:55
but most of it goes back
into that acronym, FIRE:
265
715923
4134
但大部分還是回流到
金融業、保險業和不動產業
12:00
finance, insurance and real estate.
266
720081
1734
簡稱 FIRE
12:01
It's very conveniently called FIRE.
267
721839
2559
說 FIRE 比較方便
12:04
Now, this is interesting because, in fact,
268
724422
3540
這很耐人尋味,因為事實上
12:07
it's not to say that finance
is good or bad,
269
727986
3039
很難斷定資金是好還是壞
12:11
but the degree to which,
270
731049
1410
只能說
12:12
by just having to give it a name,
271
732483
1603
因為實際上創造了收入
12:14
because it actually had an income
that was being generated,
272
734110
2863
僅僅為這現象取了個名稱
12:16
as opposed to pausing and asking,
"What is it actually doing?" --
273
736997
3123
而不是質疑
「實際上是怎麼一回事?」
12:20
that was a missed opportunity.
274
740144
1465
浪費了那次機會
12:21
Similarly, in the real economy,
in industry itself, what was happening?
275
741633
4376
同樣的
在實際的經濟產業裡發生了什麼事?
12:26
And this real focus on prices
and also share prices
276
746501
6884
只專注在價格還有股價
12:33
has created a huge problem
of reinvestment,
277
753409
2520
造成再投資這個很大的問題
12:35
again, this real attention that both
the Physiocrats and the classicals had
278
755953
3818
重農主義者和古典主義者
都在關注這個問題
12:39
to the degree to which the value
that was being generated in the economy
279
759795
3601
經濟體裡,創造出來的價值
12:43
was in fact being reinvested back in.
280
763420
2166
實際上又投資回去
12:45
And so what we have today is
an ultrafinancialized industrial sector
281
765610
3993
所以今天我們有超金融化的工業產業
12:49
where, increasingly, a share
of the profits and the net income
282
769627
3671
其獲利或是淨利的一部分
12:53
are not actually going
back into production,
283
773322
2860
沒再投入生產
12:56
into human capital training,
into research and development
284
776206
3599
人資訓練、研發
12:59
but just being siphoned out
in terms of buying back your own shares,
285
779829
3885
只是抽出來買回自己的股份
13:03
which boosts stock options,
which is, in fact, the way
286
783738
2780
提高了認股權
13:06
that many executives are getting paid.
287
786542
1978
其實也付了很多經理的薪水
13:08
And, you know, some
share buybacks is absolutely fine,
288
788544
2564
回購股權沒什麼大不了
但這系統卻很不正常
13:11
but this system
is completely out of whack.
289
791132
2037
這些數據告訴我們過去十年
13:13
These numbers that I'm showing you here
290
793193
1869
13:15
show that in the last 10 years,
466 of the S and P 500 companies
291
795086
4197
標普 500 公司中
466 間公司
13:19
have spent over four trillion
on just buying back their shares.
292
799307
3725
花了超過四兆回購股權
13:23
And what you see then if you aggregate
this up at the macroeconomic level,
293
803056
3815
如果在總體經濟層面
把這些數字加起來
13:26
so if we look at aggregate
business investment,
294
806895
2546
看看企業總投資
13:29
which is a percentage of GDP,
295
809465
1987
也就是 GDP 中的佔比
13:31
you also see this falling level
of business investment.
296
811476
3654
能看到企業投資下降
13:35
And this is a problem.
297
815154
1179
這就是問題所在
13:36
This, by the way, is a huge problem
for skills and job creation.
298
816357
4310
這件事對技術
新工作機會,也是很大的問題
13:40
You might have heard there's lots
of attention these days
299
820691
2706
最近大家可能很常聽到
13:43
to, "Are the robots taking our jobs?"
300
823421
1779
「機器人會搶走我們的工作嗎?」
13:45
Well, mechanization has
for centuries, actually, taken jobs,
301
825224
2956
其實機械化這件事幾世紀來
已經搶走了好多工作
13:48
but as long as profits were being
reinvested back into production,
302
828204
3326
但只要獲利重新投資回生產活動
13:51
then it didn't matter: new jobs appeared.
303
831554
1998
就沒什麼好擔心的
會出現很多新工作
13:53
But this lack of reinvestment
is, in fact, very dangerous.
304
833576
3790
沒有重新投資其實很危險
13:57
Similarly, in the pharmaceutical industry,
for example, how prices are set,
305
837390
4142
例如,製藥產業價格怎麼定
14:01
it's quite interesting how it doesn't look
at these objective conditions
306
841556
3381
沒有考慮整個經濟體裡
14:04
of the collective way in which value
is created in the economy.
307
844961
4359
創造價值的客觀條件
這件事非常奇怪
14:09
So in the sector where you have
lots of different actors --
308
849344
2790
所以那些受多方影響的產業
14:12
public, private, of course, but also
third-sector organizations --
309
852158
3565
公部門、私部門
還有第三部門
14:15
creating value,
310
855747
1152
都在創造價值
14:16
the way we actually measure
value in this sector
311
856923
2388
我們其實是以價格系統
14:19
is through the price system itself.
312
859335
2205
計算這個部門的價值
14:21
Prices reveal value.
313
861564
1513
價格告訴我們價值
14:23
So when, recently,
314
863101
1331
所以最近
14:24
the price of an antibiotic
went up by 400 percent overnight,
315
864456
4186
抗生速價格一夜之間漲了四倍
14:28
and the CEO was asked,
"How can you do this?
316
868666
2072
大家就問這間公司的執行長:
「怎麼可以這樣?
14:30
People actually need that antibiotic.
317
870762
1798
人們需要抗生素,這樣很不公平」
14:32
That's unfair."
318
872584
1160
他回答:「我們有道義責任
14:33
He said, "Well, we have a moral imperative
319
873768
2057
14:35
to allow prices to go
what the market will bear,"
320
875849
2744
要讓價格高到市場所能承受的水平」
14:38
completely dismissing the fact
that in the US, for example,
321
878617
3059
完全沒考慮到一件事
以美國為例
14:41
the National Institutes of Health
spent over 30 billion a year
322
881700
4312
衛生研究院每年花三百億
14:46
on the medical research
that actually leads to these drugs.
323
886036
2780
在研究這些藥品
14:48
So, again, a lack of attention
to those objective conditions
324
888840
2934
所以忽視客觀條件就像是這樣
14:51
and just allowing the price system
itself to reveal the value.
325
891798
3246
只讓價格系統定義價值
14:55
Now, this is not just
an academic exercise,
326
895068
2548
這可不只是學界需要關心
14:57
as interesting as it may be.
327
897640
1843
雖然很有趣
14:59
All this really matters
[for] how we measure output,
328
899507
3821
這一切都會影響我們如何測量產量
15:03
to how we steer the economy,
329
903352
1574
還有如何引導經濟發展
15:04
to whether you feel
that you're productive,
330
904950
2115
你是否覺得自己有生產力
15:07
to which sectors we end up
helping, supporting
331
907089
3342
或是決定要扶持哪些產業
15:10
and also making people feel
proud to be part of.
332
910455
3180
也要讓人民為身在其中感到光榮
15:13
In fact, going back to that quote,
333
913659
1895
我們如果再看一次那句引用來的話
15:15
it's not surprising that Blankfein
could say that.
334
915578
2335
(高盛集團執行長)
布蘭克芬那樣說並不奇怪
15:17
He was right.
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917913
1070
15:18
In the way that we actually measure
production, productivity
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918983
2893
他沒說錯
從測量經濟體生產
15:21
and value in the economy,
337
921900
1284
生產力和價值的方式來看
15:23
of course Goldman Sachs workers
are the most productive.
338
923208
2668
高盛集團的員工當然最有生產力
15:25
They are in fact earning the most.
339
925900
1647
他們事實上也賺最多錢
15:27
The price of their labor
is revealing their value.
340
927571
2428
他們的工資定義了價值
我就不再贅述了
15:30
But this becomes tautological, of course.
341
930023
2481
15:32
And so there's a real need to rethink.
342
932528
2414
不過我們需要思考
15:35
We need to rethink
how we're measuring output,
343
935609
2174
思考我們測量產量的方式
15:37
and in fact there's some
amazing experiments worldwide.
344
937807
2595
各國其實持續在做一些很奇妙的實驗
15:40
In New Zealand, for example, they now have
a gross national happiness indicator.
345
940426
4534
像是紐西蘭有國民幸福總值
15:44
In Bhutan, also, they're thinking
about happiness and well-being indicators.
346
944984
4291
不丹也有幸福感指數
15:49
But the problem is that we can't
just be adding things in.
347
949299
3265
問題在於我們不能只是把數字加起來
15:52
We do have to pause,
348
952588
1157
我們要停下來想一想
15:53
and I think this should be
a moment for pause,
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2175
現在就是個很好的時機
15:55
given that we see so little
has actually changed
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955968
2262
因為從金融危機以來
我們沒做什麼改變
15:58
since the financial crisis,
351
958254
1325
15:59
to make sure that
we are not also confusing
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959603
3508
這時間也讓我們能夠分辨
16:03
value extraction with value creation,
353
963135
1997
萃取價制和創造價值
應該要看看什麼包含於其中
16:05
so looking at what's included,
not just adding more,
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965156
3307
而不只是把數字往上加
16:08
to make sure that we're not, for example,
confusing rents with profits.
355
968487
3867
確保我們沒把
像是租金算進獲利
16:12
Rents for the classicals
was about unearned income.
356
972378
2978
古典學派視租金為非勞動所得
16:15
Today, rents, when they're
talked about in economics,
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975380
2502
現在經濟學提到租金
16:17
is just an imperfection
towards a competitive price
358
977906
3206
就是競爭價格的小瑕疵
16:21
that could be competed away
if you take away some asymmetries.
359
981136
3479
如果移除一些不對稱因素
就能抵銷掉
16:25
Second, we of course can steer
activities into what the classicals called
360
985376
4244
再者,我們當然也能引導生產活動
到古典學派所稱的「生產邊界」
16:29
the "production boundary."
361
989644
1276
16:30
This should not be an us-versus-them,
362
990944
1947
這不該是彼此對立
16:32
big, bad finance versus
good, other sectors.
363
992915
3086
大規模、不良資金
與其他優良部門對立
16:36
We could reform finance.
364
996025
1412
我們能夠改良金融體系
16:37
There was a real lost opportunity
in some ways after the crisis.
365
997461
3066
金融危機過後,我們錯失了良機
16:40
We could have had
the financial transaction tax,
366
1000551
2568
我們本應該徵收金融交易稅
16:43
which would have rewarded
long-termism over short-termism,
367
1003143
3486
鼓勵長期投資而不是短期投資
16:46
but we didn't decide to do that globally.
368
1006653
2309
但並非全世界都有這樣做
16:48
We can. We can change our minds.
369
1008986
1790
我們能夠改變思考模式
16:50
We can also set up
new types of institutions.
370
1010800
2129
我們也能設立新的機構
16:52
There's different types of, for example,
public financial institutions worldwide
371
1012953
4150
全世界有很多像是公共財務機構
16:57
that are actually providing that patient,
long-term, committed finance
372
1017127
3664
提供長期、穩定的資金給小型企業
17:00
that helps small firms grow, that help
infrastructure and innovation happen.
373
1020815
4092
促進基礎建設和創新
17:04
But this shouldn't just be about output.
374
1024931
2257
我們不能只著眼於產量
17:07
This shouldn't just be about
the rate of output.
375
1027212
2275
或是生產速度
整個社會都應該緩一緩並想一想
17:09
We should also as a society pause
376
1029511
1766
17:11
and ask: What value are we even creating?
377
1031301
2942
我們創造的是什麼價值
17:14
And I just want to end with the fact
that this week we are celebrating
378
1034267
3731
我最後想跟各位分享
這個星期是
人類登月五十週年
17:18
the 50th anniversary of the Moon landing.
379
1038022
2621
17:20
This required the public sector,
the private sector,
380
1040667
2788
這項創舉需要公部門、私部門
17:23
to invest and innovate
in all sorts of ways,
381
1043479
2925
在各方面投資和創新
17:26
not just around aeronautics.
382
1046428
1826
不只侷限在飛行技術
17:28
It included investment in areas
like nutrition and materials.
383
1048278
4018
還包含要投資營養、材料等領域
17:32
There were lots of actual mistakes
that were done along the way.
384
1052320
3241
一路上其實錯誤百出
17:35
In fact, what government did was it used
its full power of procurement,
385
1055585
3387
事實上政府只是運用他們的採購能力
17:38
for example, to fuel
those bottom-up solutions,
386
1058996
3025
找出從細節到整體的解決方法
17:42
of which some failed.
387
1062045
1627
有些失敗了
17:43
But are failures part of value creation?
388
1063696
2816
但失敗是創造價值的一部分嗎?
17:46
Or are they just mistakes?
389
1066536
1324
或單純就只是錯誤?
17:47
Or how do we actually also
nurture the experimentation,
390
1067884
3769
還是我們也助長了實驗的方法
17:51
the trial and error and error and error?
391
1071677
2552
試驗還有很多的錯誤經驗呢?
17:54
Bell Labs, which was
the R and D laboratory of AT and T,
392
1074253
3195
貝爾實驗室曾負責 AT&T 的研發工作
17:57
actually came from an era
where government was quite courageous.
393
1077472
3727
當年的政府勇氣可嘉
18:01
It actually asked AT and T that
in order to maintain its monopoly status,
394
1081223
4856
政府那時要求 AT&T
為了保持壟斷
18:06
it had to reinvest its profits
back into the real economy,
395
1086103
3647
必須要把獲利
重新投資進實體經濟、創新
18:09
innovation
396
1089774
1262
18:11
and innovation beyond telecoms.
397
1091060
1678
不限於電信領域的創新
18:12
That was the history,
the early history of Bell Labs.
398
1092762
2574
這是貝爾實驗室的早期歷史
18:15
So how we can get these new conditions
around reinvestment
399
1095360
3766
我們要怎麼達到新條件以再投資
18:19
to collectively invest
in new types of value
400
1099150
2852
來一起投資新型的價值
18:22
directed at some of the biggest
challenges of our time,
401
1102026
2908
來解決我們這代最大的問題
18:24
like climate change?
402
1104958
1271
像是環境變遷?
18:26
This is a key question.
403
1106253
1967
這才是關鍵問題
18:28
But we should also ask ourselves,
404
1108244
1728
我們也該問問自己
18:29
had there been a net
present value calculation
405
1109996
3687
倘若進行了淨現值計算
18:33
or a cost-benefit analysis done
406
1113707
2720
或做了成本效益分析
18:36
about whether or not to even try
to go to the Moon and back again
407
1116451
3615
以決定是否嘗試一次次往返月球
18:40
in a generation,
408
1120090
1177
18:41
we probably wouldn't have started.
409
1121291
2488
我們可能就不會開始
18:43
So thank God,
410
1123803
1720
所以感謝老天爺
18:45
because I'm an economist,
and I can tell you,
411
1125547
2140
我是經濟學家,所以能告訴你
18:47
value is not just price.
412
1127711
1933
價值並非只是價格
18:50
Thank you.
413
1130057
1182
謝謝
18:51
(Applause)
414
1131263
2221
(掌聲)
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