Fossil fuel companies know how to stop global warming. Why don't they? | Myles Allen

91,921 views ・ 2020-12-04

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00:00
Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs
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翻译人员: TED Translators Admin 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang
00:12
So here's a thought.
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有这样一种想法:
00:14
The fossil fuel industry knows how to stop causing global warming,
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化石燃料工业知道 如何阻止全球变暖,
00:19
but they're waiting for somebody else to pay,
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但他们在等待别人对此负责,
00:21
and no one is calling them out on it.
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而从没有人呼吁他们这样做。
00:23
I was one of the authors of the 2018 IPCC report
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我是 2018 年 IPCC (政府间气候变化专门委员会)
00:27
on 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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关于 1.5 摄氏度报告的作者之一。
00:30
And after the report was published,
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报告发表后,
00:32
I gave a lot of talks, including one to a meeting of young engineers
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我做了很多演讲, 其中一次是在
00:35
of one of the world's major oil and gas companies.
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一家世界石油和天然气巨头组织的 年轻工程师会议上。
00:39
And at the end of the talk, I got the inevitable question,
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在演讲的最后, 有人问了一个意料之中的问题,
00:42
"Do you personally believe there's any chance
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“你个人认为我们有可能
00:45
of us limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees?"
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把全球升温控制在 1.5 度以内吗?”
00:48
IPCC reports are not really about personal opinions,
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我的报告结果展现的 并不是我个人的观点,
00:51
so I turned the question around and said,
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于是我反问道,
00:53
"Well, if you had to fully decarbonize your product,
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“如果你必须让你的产品完全脱碳,
00:58
that is, dispose safely and permanently of one ton of carbon dioxide
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也就是说,在 2050 年之前 这段既定时间内,
01:04
for every ton generated by the oil and gas you sell,
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安全且永久性的处理掉 你出售的石油和天然气
01:08
by 2050, which is what it would take,
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所产生的每一吨二氧化碳,
01:10
would you be able to do so?"
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你能做到吗?”
01:13
"Would the same rules apply to everybody?" somebody asked,
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还有人问,“同样的规则 是否适用于所有人?”
01:16
meaning, of course, their competition.
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当然是指竞争对手。
01:19
I said, "OK, yeah, maybe they would."
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我说,“是的,也许是这样的。”
01:21
Now, the management just looked at their shoes;
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而这时候,管理层都低头不语,
01:23
they didn't want to answer the question.
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试图回避这个问题,
01:25
But the young engineers just shrugged and said,
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但年轻的工程师只是耸耸肩,说,
01:28
"Yes, of course we would, like it's even a question."
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“是的,我们当然会,毫无疑问。”
01:31
So I want to talk to you
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所以,我想跟你们谈谈
01:32
about what those young engineers know how to do:
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那些年轻的工程师 关于解决方案的看法,
01:36
decarbonize fossil fuels.
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即让化石燃料脱碳,
01:38
Not decarbonize the economy,
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不是让经济脱碳,
01:41
or even decarbonize their own company,
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或者让他们自己的公司脱碳,
01:43
but decarbonize the fuels themselves,
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而是让燃料本身脱碳,
01:46
and this matters
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这很重要,因为它对阻止
01:48
because it turns out to be essential to stopping global warming.
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全球变暖至关重要。
01:52
At a global level, climate change turns out to be surprisingly simple:
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放眼全球,气候变化问题 其实出奇的简单,
01:56
To stop global warming
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为了阻止全球变暖,
01:57
we need to stop dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
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我们只需要停止 向大气中排放二氧化碳。
02:01
And since about 85 percent of the carbon dioxide we currently emit
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而且由于我们目前 所排放的二氧化碳中,
02:05
comes from fossil fuels and industry,
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约 85% 来自化石燃料和工业,
02:06
we need to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming.
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我们就更需要阻止化石燃料 进一步造成全球变暖。
02:11
So how do we do that?
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那我们该怎么做呢?
02:13
Well, it turns out there's really only two options.
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其实只有两个选择。
02:16
The first option is, in effect, to ban fossil fuels.
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第一个就是全面禁止化石燃料,
02:21
That's what "absolute zero" means.
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也就是绝对零排放的含义。
02:24
No one allowed to extract, sell, or use fossil fuels
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任何人不得在世界任何地方
02:29
anywhere in the world on pain of a massive fine.
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开采、销售或使用化石燃料, 否则将被处以巨额罚款。
02:34
If that sounds unlikely, it's because it is.
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如果这听起来不太可能, 那是因为事实确实如此。
02:38
And even if a global ban were possible,
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即使在全球 禁止使用化石燃料是可能的,
02:41
do you or I in wealthy countries in 2020
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当前生活在富裕国家的我们,
02:44
have any right to tell the citizens
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有权力让 21 世纪 60 年代的
02:46
of poor and emerging economies in the 2060s
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贫穷国家和新兴经济体的公民
02:50
not to touch their fossil fuels?
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不要使用他们的化石燃料吗?
02:53
Some people argue that if we work hard enough
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有些人认为,如果我们足够努力,
02:56
we can drive down the cost of renewable energy so far
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就可以把可再生能源的成本降低到
03:00
that we won't need to ban fossil fuels,
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不需要禁止化石燃料的程度,
03:03
the people will stop using them of their own accord.
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人们会自动停止使用它们。
03:06
This kind of thinking is dangerously optimistic.
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这是一种危险的乐观主义态度。
03:09
For one thing, renewable energy costs might not go down as fast as they hope.
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首先,可再生能源的成本可能不会 像他们希望的那样快速下降。
03:13
I mean, remember,
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别忘了,
03:15
nuclear energy was meant to be too cheap to meter in the 1970s,
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核能在 20 世纪 70 年代 就已经被认为非常廉价了,
03:19
but even more importantly,
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但更重要的是,
03:21
we've no idea how low fossil fuel prices might fall
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我们并不知道化石燃料的成本
03:25
in response to that competition.
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会在这种竞争中下降到什么程度。
03:28
There are so many uses of fossil carbon,
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化石碳的用途很多,
03:30
from aviation fuel to cement production,
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从航空燃料到水泥生产,
03:34
it's not enough for carbon-free alternatives to outcompete the big ones,
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光靠无碳替代品 是无法与传统能源抗争的。
03:40
to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming,
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要阻止化石燃料 进一步导致全球变暖,
03:43
carbon-free alternatives would need to outcompete them all.
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无碳替代品的性价比还需要 超越所有的替代品。
03:47
So the only real alternative to stop fossil fuels causing global warming
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因此,要真正阻止化石燃料 进一步导致全球变暖,
03:51
is to decarbonize them.
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唯一真正的替代办法 就是对它们进行脱碳。
03:54
I know that sounds odd,
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我知道这听起来很奇怪,
03:55
decarbonize fossil fuels.
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让化石燃料脱碳。
03:58
What it means is,
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意思就是,
03:59
one ton of carbon dioxide has to be safely and permanently disposed of
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如果继续使用化石燃料, 产生的每一吨二氧化碳,
04:05
for every ton generated by the continued use of fossil fuels.
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就必须安全和永久的被处理掉。
04:10
Now, consumers can't do this,
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当然不能指望消费者这样做,
04:12
so the responsibility has to lie with the companies
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所以责任就落在了
04:16
that are producing and selling the fossil fuels themselves.
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生产和销售化石燃料的公司身上。
04:19
Their engineers know how to do it.
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他们的工程师知道该怎么做。
04:22
In fact, they've known for decades.
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事实上,他们几十年前 就对此心知肚明。
04:24
The simplest option is to capture the carbon dioxide as it's generated
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最简单的选择就是 捕获从发电站烟囱、
04:28
from the chimney of a power station, or blast furnace, or refinery.
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高炉或炼油厂排放的二氧化碳,
04:34
You purify it, compress it, and re-inject it back underground.
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并对其进行净化、压缩, 再重新注入地下。
04:39
If you inject it deep enough and into the right rock formations,
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如果你将其注入 足够深且合适的岩层中,
04:42
it stays there, just like the hydrocarbons it came from.
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它就会像其碳氢化合物 源头那样留在那里。
04:46
To stop further global warming,
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为了阻止全球进一步变暖,
04:49
permanent storage has to mean tens of thousands of years at least,
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永久储存意味着 至少能保存数万年的时间。
04:55
which is why trying to mop up our fossil carbon emissions
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这就是为什么试图 通过植树来清除我们的
04:58
by planting trees can help,
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化石碳排放虽然会有所帮助,
05:01
but it can only be a temporary stopgap.
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但也只能是暂时的权宜之计。
05:05
For some applications like aviation fuel, for example,
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对于一些用途,比如航空燃料,
05:09
we can't capture the carbon dioxide at source,
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我们无法从源头捕获二氧化碳,
05:12
so we have to recapture it, take it back out of the atmosphere.
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所以我们必须重新捕获它, 从大气中回收。
05:16
That can be done; there's companies already doing it,
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这是可以做到的, 已经有公司在做了,
但成本更高。
05:19
but it's more expensive.
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05:20
And this points to the single most important reason
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这就引出了 回收和安全处理二氧化碳
05:23
why recapturing and safe disposal of carbon dioxide
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尚未成为行业标准的
05:27
is not already standard practice:
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一个最重要的原因:
05:30
cost.
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成本。
05:31
It's infinitely cheaper just to dump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
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仅仅把二氧化碳排放到大气中,
05:35
than it is to capture it and dispose of it safely back underground.
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比将其捕获并安全的埋入地下 成本要低得多。
05:40
But the good news is,
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但好在,
05:42
we don't need to dispose of 100 percent
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我们不需要马上处理掉
05:45
of the carbon dioxide we generate from burning fossil fuels right away.
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通过燃烧化石燃料 所产生的全部二氧化碳。
05:50
Economists talk about cost-effective pathways,
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经济学家们所谈论的 具有成本效益的途径,
05:53
by which they mean ways of achieving a result
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是指在不向下一代
05:56
without unfairly dumping too much of the cost
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不公平地倾销过多成本的情况下
05:58
onto the next generation.
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取得结果的方法。
06:01
And a cost-effective pathway,
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通过这样的途径,
06:02
which gets us to decarbonizing fossil fuels,
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可以让我们在 2050 年之前
06:06
100 percent carbon capture and storage by 2050,
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实现化石燃料脱碳, 以及 100% 的碳捕获和储存——
06:10
which is what net-zero means,
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净零排放说的就是这个意思——
06:13
takes us through 10 percent carbon capture in 2030,
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在 2030 年实现 10% 的碳捕获,
06:18
50 percent in 2040,
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在 2040 年实现 50%,
06:19
100 percent in 2050.
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并在 2050 年实现 100% 的碳捕获。
06:22
To put that in context,
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对比一下,
06:24
we are currently capturing and storing less than 0.1 percent.
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我们目前捕获和存储的碳 还不到 0.1%。
06:29
So don't get me wrong,
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所以我并不是说
06:30
decarbonizing fossil fuels is not going to be easy.
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实现化石燃料脱碳很简单。
06:34
It's going to mean building a carbon dioxide disposal industry
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这意味着要建立一个 与今天的石油和天然气
06:39
comparable in size to today's oil and gas industry.
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工业规模相当的二氧化碳处理工业。
06:43
The only entities in the world
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世界上唯一具备足够的工程条件
06:45
that have the engineering capability
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和雄厚财力的实体
06:48
and the deep pockets to do this
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正是那些
06:51
are the companies that produce the fossil fuels themselves.
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自己生产化石燃料的公司。
06:55
We can all help by slowing down our use of fossil carbon
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我们可以通过减缓
对化石碳的使用 为脱碳争取时间,
07:00
to buy them time to decarbonize it,
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07:03
but they still have to get on with it.
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但这些事依然必须由他们来做。
07:05
Now, adding the cost of carbon dioxide disposal
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算上二氧化碳处理的成本,
07:08
will make fossil fuel-based products more expensive,
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就会使基于化石燃料的产品更加昂贵,
07:11
and a 10 percent storage requirement by 2030, for example,
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例如,到 2030 年, 10% 的储存要求
07:15
might add a few pence to the cost of a liter of petrol.
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就意味着可能会 使一公升汽油的成本增加几分钱。
07:18
But, unlike a tax,
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但与征税不同的是,
07:21
that money is clearly being spent on solving the problem,
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这些钱显然是花在解决问题上的。
07:26
and of course, consumers will respond,
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当然,消费者也会做出回应,
07:28
perhaps by switching to electric cars, for example,
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比如换用电动汽车,
07:31
but they won't need to be told to do so.
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但他们不需要被告知这么做。
07:33
And crucially, if developing countries agreed to use fossil fuels
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关键在于,如果发展中国家 同意使用以这种方式
07:39
that have been progressively decarbonized in this way,
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逐步脱碳的化石燃料,
07:43
then they never need accept limits on the absolute amount that they consume,
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那么它们就不需要接受 对化石燃料消费的绝对限制,
07:48
which they fear might constrain their growth.
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也就不用担心 会影响本国的经济增长。
07:52
Over the past couple of years,
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在过去的几年里,
07:53
more and more people have been talking
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越来越多的人开始谈论
07:55
about the importance of carbon dioxide disposal.
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二氧化碳处理的重要性,
07:58
But they're still talking about it
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但大家仿佛都认为这只能通过
08:00
as if it's to be paid for by philanthropy or tax breaks.
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慈善或税收减免来实现。
08:05
But why should foundations or the taxpayer pay to clean up
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但为什么基金会或纳税人
要为一个仍然有利可图的行业 付钱进行清理呢?
08:09
after a still-profitable industry?
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08:13
No. We can decarbonize fossil fuels.
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不需要。我们可以为化石燃料脱碳。
08:16
And if we do decarbonize fossil fuels,
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如果我们能够做到,
08:19
as well as getting things like deforestation under control,
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同时控制森林砍伐,
08:22
we will stop global warming.
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我们就可以阻止全球变暖。
08:24
And if we don't, we won't.
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如果我们做不到, 气候就会继续恶化。
08:25
It's as simple as that.
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就这么简单。
08:27
But it's going to take a movement to make this happen.
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但这需要通过 一场全球运动来实现。
08:30
So how can you help?
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那你能帮什么忙呢?
08:32
Well, it depends on who you are.
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这就要取决于你的角色了。
08:34
If you work or invest in the fossil fuel industry,
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如果你在化石燃料行业工作或投资,
08:39
don't walk away from the problem by selling off your fossil fuel assets
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不要试图逃避, 把你的化石燃料资产
08:44
to someone else who cares less than you do.
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卖给比你更不关心这个问题的人。
08:47
You own this problem.
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你对这个问题负有责任,
08:48
You need to fix it.
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你需要解决它。
08:50
Decarbonizing your portfolio helps no one but your conscience.
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让你的投资组合脱碳 只会让你更心安。
08:55
You must decarbonize your product.
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你必须使你的产品脱碳。
08:59
If you're a politician or a civil servant,
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如果你是一个政治家或公务员,
09:02
you need to look at your favorite climate policy and ask:
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就需要针对你最喜欢的气候政策 提出这样的问题:
09:05
How is it helping to decarbonize fossil fuels?
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它对化石燃料的脱碳有帮助吗?
09:08
How is it helping to increase the fraction
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它是如何帮助增加
09:11
of carbon dioxide we generate from fossil fuels
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我们从化石燃料中产生 且能被永久性安全处理的
09:14
that is safely and permanently disposed of?
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二氧化碳的比例的呢?
09:17
If it isn't, then it may be helping to slow global warming,
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如果它做不到,那么它可能 依然有助于减缓全球变暖,
09:22
which is useful,
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还是很有益处的,
09:24
but unless you believe in that ban, it isn't going to stop it.
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但除非你对那项禁令的效果充满信心, 不然真正的减排就无从谈起。
09:29
Finally, if you're an environmentalist,
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最后,如果你是一个环保主义者,
09:31
you probably find the idea of the fossil fuel industry itself
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你可能会发现,化石燃料工业本身
09:35
playing such a central role in solving the climate change problem disturbing.
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在解决气候变化的问题上扮演着 重要角色这一想法很令人不安。
09:41
"Won't those carbon dioxide reservoirs leak?"
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你会担心那些二氧化碳储存库
09:44
you'll worry,
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会不会泄漏,
09:45
"Or won't some in the industry cheat?"
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或者一些行业会不会作弊。
09:48
Over the coming decades, there probably will be leaks,
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在未来的几十年里, 可能会有泄漏,
09:52
and there may be cheats,
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也可能会有欺诈,
09:54
but those leaks and those cheats
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但这些泄漏和欺骗
09:56
will make decarbonizing fossil fuels harder,
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会让化石燃料脱碳变得更加困难,
10:00
they don't make it optional.
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不能让它成为一个选项。
10:02
Global warming won't wait for the fossil fuel industry to die.
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全球变暖不会等到化石燃料工业消亡,
10:08
And just calling for it to die
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而仅仅让它走向尽头,
10:10
is letting it off the hook from solving its own problem.
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就等于是让它自动摆脱了 需要解决自身问题的困境。
10:16
In these divided times, we need to look for help
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在这个两极分化的时代,
10:19
and maybe even friends in unexpected places.
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我们需要在意想不到的地方 寻求帮助,甚至是寻找盟友。
10:24
It's time to call on the fossil fuel industry
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是时候呼吁化石燃料行业
10:27
to help solve the problem their product has created.
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帮助解决他们的产品 所造成的问题了。
10:31
Their engineers know how,
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他们的工程师知道怎么做,
10:32
we just need to get the management to look up from their shoes.
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我们只需要让管理层开始直面问题。
10:37
Thank you.
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谢谢。
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