Fossil fuel companies know how to stop global warming. Why don't they? | Myles Allen

Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

翻译人员: TED Translators Admin 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

So here's a thought.

有这样一种想法：

The fossil fuel industry knows how to stop causing global warming,

化石燃料工业知道 如何阻止全球变暖，

but they're waiting for somebody else to pay,

但他们在等待别人对此负责，

and no one is calling them out on it.

而从没有人呼吁他们这样做。

I was one of the authors of the 2018 IPCC report

我是 2018 年 IPCC （政府间气候变化专门委员会）

on 1.5 degrees Celsius.

关于 1.5 摄氏度报告的作者之一。

And after the report was published,

报告发表后，

I gave a lot of talks, including one to a meeting of young engineers

我做了很多演讲， 其中一次是在

of one of the world's major oil and gas companies.

一家世界石油和天然气巨头组织的 年轻工程师会议上。

And at the end of the talk, I got the inevitable question,

在演讲的最后， 有人问了一个意料之中的问题，

"Do you personally believe there's any chance

“你个人认为我们有可能

of us limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees?"

把全球升温控制在 1.5 度以内吗？”

IPCC reports are not really about personal opinions,

我的报告结果展现的 并不是我个人的观点，

so I turned the question around and said,

于是我反问道，

"Well, if you had to fully decarbonize your product,

“如果你必须让你的产品完全脱碳，

that is, dispose safely and permanently of one ton of carbon dioxide

也就是说，在 2050 年之前 这段既定时间内，

for every ton generated by the oil and gas you sell,

安全且永久性的处理掉 你出售的石油和天然气

by 2050, which is what it would take,

所产生的每一吨二氧化碳，

would you be able to do so?"

你能做到吗？”

"Would the same rules apply to everybody?" somebody asked,

还有人问，“同样的规则 是否适用于所有人？”

meaning, of course, their competition.

当然是指竞争对手。

I said, "OK, yeah, maybe they would."

我说，“是的，也许是这样的。”

Now, the management just looked at their shoes;

而这时候，管理层都低头不语，

they didn't want to answer the question.

试图回避这个问题，

But the young engineers just shrugged and said,

但年轻的工程师只是耸耸肩，说，

"Yes, of course we would, like it's even a question."

“是的，我们当然会，毫无疑问。”

So I want to talk to you

所以，我想跟你们谈谈

about what those young engineers know how to do:

那些年轻的工程师 关于解决方案的看法，

decarbonize fossil fuels.

即让化石燃料脱碳，

Not decarbonize the economy,

不是让经济脱碳，

or even decarbonize their own company,

或者让他们自己的公司脱碳，

but decarbonize the fuels themselves,

而是让燃料本身脱碳，

and this matters

这很重要，因为它对阻止

because it turns out to be essential to stopping global warming.

全球变暖至关重要。

At a global level, climate change turns out to be surprisingly simple:

放眼全球，气候变化问题 其实出奇的简单，

To stop global warming

为了阻止全球变暖，

we need to stop dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

我们只需要停止 向大气中排放二氧化碳。

And since about 85 percent of the carbon dioxide we currently emit

而且由于我们目前 所排放的二氧化碳中，

comes from fossil fuels and industry,

约 85% 来自化石燃料和工业，

we need to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming.

我们就更需要阻止化石燃料 进一步造成全球变暖。

So how do we do that?

那我们该怎么做呢？

Well, it turns out there's really only two options.

其实只有两个选择。

The first option is, in effect, to ban fossil fuels.

第一个就是全面禁止化石燃料，

That's what "absolute zero" means.

也就是绝对零排放的含义。

No one allowed to extract, sell, or use fossil fuels

任何人不得在世界任何地方

anywhere in the world on pain of a massive fine.

开采、销售或使用化石燃料， 否则将被处以巨额罚款。

If that sounds unlikely, it's because it is.

如果这听起来不太可能， 那是因为事实确实如此。

And even if a global ban were possible,

即使在全球 禁止使用化石燃料是可能的，

do you or I in wealthy countries in 2020

当前生活在富裕国家的我们，

have any right to tell the citizens

有权力让 21 世纪 60 年代的

of poor and emerging economies in the 2060s

贫穷国家和新兴经济体的公民

not to touch their fossil fuels?

不要使用他们的化石燃料吗?

Some people argue that if we work hard enough

有些人认为，如果我们足够努力，

we can drive down the cost of renewable energy so far

就可以把可再生能源的成本降低到

that we won't need to ban fossil fuels,

不需要禁止化石燃料的程度，

the people will stop using them of their own accord.

人们会自动停止使用它们。

This kind of thinking is dangerously optimistic.

这是一种危险的乐观主义态度。

For one thing, renewable energy costs might not go down as fast as they hope.

首先，可再生能源的成本可能不会 像他们希望的那样快速下降。

I mean, remember,

别忘了，

nuclear energy was meant to be too cheap to meter in the 1970s,

核能在 20 世纪 70 年代 就已经被认为非常廉价了，

but even more importantly,

但更重要的是，

we've no idea how low fossil fuel prices might fall

我们并不知道化石燃料的成本

in response to that competition.

会在这种竞争中下降到什么程度。

There are so many uses of fossil carbon,

化石碳的用途很多，

from aviation fuel to cement production,

从航空燃料到水泥生产，

it's not enough for carbon-free alternatives to outcompete the big ones,

光靠无碳替代品 是无法与传统能源抗争的。

to stop fossil fuels from causing further global warming,

要阻止化石燃料 进一步导致全球变暖，

carbon-free alternatives would need to outcompete them all.

无碳替代品的性价比还需要 超越所有的替代品。

So the only real alternative to stop fossil fuels causing global warming

因此，要真正阻止化石燃料 进一步导致全球变暖，

is to decarbonize them.

唯一真正的替代办法 就是对它们进行脱碳。

I know that sounds odd,

我知道这听起来很奇怪，

decarbonize fossil fuels.

让化石燃料脱碳。

What it means is,

意思就是，

one ton of carbon dioxide has to be safely and permanently disposed of

如果继续使用化石燃料， 产生的每一吨二氧化碳，

for every ton generated by the continued use of fossil fuels.

就必须安全和永久的被处理掉。

Now, consumers can't do this,

当然不能指望消费者这样做，

so the responsibility has to lie with the companies

所以责任就落在了

that are producing and selling the fossil fuels themselves.

生产和销售化石燃料的公司身上。

Their engineers know how to do it.

他们的工程师知道该怎么做。

In fact, they've known for decades.

事实上，他们几十年前 就对此心知肚明。

The simplest option is to capture the carbon dioxide as it's generated

最简单的选择就是 捕获从发电站烟囱、

from the chimney of a power station, or blast furnace, or refinery.

高炉或炼油厂排放的二氧化碳，

You purify it, compress it, and re-inject it back underground.

并对其进行净化、压缩， 再重新注入地下。

If you inject it deep enough and into the right rock formations,

如果你将其注入 足够深且合适的岩层中，

it stays there, just like the hydrocarbons it came from.

它就会像其碳氢化合物 源头那样留在那里。

To stop further global warming,

为了阻止全球进一步变暖，

permanent storage has to mean tens of thousands of years at least,

永久储存意味着 至少能保存数万年的时间。

which is why trying to mop up our fossil carbon emissions

这就是为什么试图 通过植树来清除我们的

by planting trees can help,

化石碳排放虽然会有所帮助，

but it can only be a temporary stopgap.

但也只能是暂时的权宜之计。

For some applications like aviation fuel, for example,

对于一些用途，比如航空燃料，

we can't capture the carbon dioxide at source,

我们无法从源头捕获二氧化碳，

so we have to recapture it, take it back out of the atmosphere.

所以我们必须重新捕获它， 从大气中回收。

That can be done; there's companies already doing it,

这是可以做到的， 已经有公司在做了，

但成本更高。

but it's more expensive.

And this points to the single most important reason

这就引出了 回收和安全处理二氧化碳

why recapturing and safe disposal of carbon dioxide

尚未成为行业标准的

is not already standard practice:

一个最重要的原因：

cost.

成本。

It's infinitely cheaper just to dump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere

仅仅把二氧化碳排放到大气中，

than it is to capture it and dispose of it safely back underground.

比将其捕获并安全的埋入地下 成本要低得多。

But the good news is,

但好在，

we don't need to dispose of 100 percent

我们不需要马上处理掉

of the carbon dioxide we generate from burning fossil fuels right away.

通过燃烧化石燃料 所产生的全部二氧化碳。

Economists talk about cost-effective pathways,

经济学家们所谈论的 具有成本效益的途径，

by which they mean ways of achieving a result

是指在不向下一代

without unfairly dumping too much of the cost

不公平地倾销过多成本的情况下

onto the next generation.

取得结果的方法。

And a cost-effective pathway,

通过这样的途径，

which gets us to decarbonizing fossil fuels,

可以让我们在 2050 年之前

100 percent carbon capture and storage by 2050,

实现化石燃料脱碳， 以及 100% 的碳捕获和储存——

which is what net-zero means,

净零排放说的就是这个意思——

takes us through 10 percent carbon capture in 2030,

在 2030 年实现 10% 的碳捕获，

50 percent in 2040,

在 2040 年实现 50%，

100 percent in 2050.

并在 2050 年实现 100% 的碳捕获。

To put that in context,

对比一下，

we are currently capturing and storing less than 0.1 percent.

我们目前捕获和存储的碳 还不到 0.1%。

So don't get me wrong,

所以我并不是说

decarbonizing fossil fuels is not going to be easy.

实现化石燃料脱碳很简单。

It's going to mean building a carbon dioxide disposal industry

这意味着要建立一个 与今天的石油和天然气

comparable in size to today's oil and gas industry.

工业规模相当的二氧化碳处理工业。

The only entities in the world

世界上唯一具备足够的工程条件

that have the engineering capability

和雄厚财力的实体

and the deep pockets to do this

正是那些

are the companies that produce the fossil fuels themselves.

自己生产化石燃料的公司。

We can all help by slowing down our use of fossil carbon

我们可以通过减缓

对化石碳的使用 为脱碳争取时间，

to buy them time to decarbonize it,

but they still have to get on with it.

但这些事依然必须由他们来做。

Now, adding the cost of carbon dioxide disposal

算上二氧化碳处理的成本，

will make fossil fuel-based products more expensive,

就会使基于化石燃料的产品更加昂贵，

and a 10 percent storage requirement by 2030, for example,

例如，到 2030 年， 10% 的储存要求

might add a few pence to the cost of a liter of petrol.

就意味着可能会 使一公升汽油的成本增加几分钱。

But, unlike a tax,

但与征税不同的是，

that money is clearly being spent on solving the problem,

这些钱显然是花在解决问题上的。

and of course, consumers will respond,

当然，消费者也会做出回应，

perhaps by switching to electric cars, for example,

比如换用电动汽车，

but they won't need to be told to do so.

但他们不需要被告知这么做。

And crucially, if developing countries agreed to use fossil fuels

关键在于，如果发展中国家 同意使用以这种方式

that have been progressively decarbonized in this way,

逐步脱碳的化石燃料，

then they never need accept limits on the absolute amount that they consume,

那么它们就不需要接受 对化石燃料消费的绝对限制，

which they fear might constrain their growth.

也就不用担心 会影响本国的经济增长。

Over the past couple of years,

在过去的几年里，

more and more people have been talking

越来越多的人开始谈论

about the importance of carbon dioxide disposal.

二氧化碳处理的重要性，

But they're still talking about it

但大家仿佛都认为这只能通过

as if it's to be paid for by philanthropy or tax breaks.

慈善或税收减免来实现。

But why should foundations or the taxpayer pay to clean up

但为什么基金会或纳税人

要为一个仍然有利可图的行业 付钱进行清理呢？

after a still-profitable industry?

No. We can decarbonize fossil fuels.

不需要。我们可以为化石燃料脱碳。

And if we do decarbonize fossil fuels,

如果我们能够做到，

as well as getting things like deforestation under control,

同时控制森林砍伐，

we will stop global warming.

我们就可以阻止全球变暖。

And if we don't, we won't.

如果我们做不到， 气候就会继续恶化。

It's as simple as that.

就这么简单。

But it's going to take a movement to make this happen.

但这需要通过 一场全球运动来实现。

So how can you help?

那你能帮什么忙呢？

Well, it depends on who you are.

这就要取决于你的角色了。

If you work or invest in the fossil fuel industry,

如果你在化石燃料行业工作或投资，

don't walk away from the problem by selling off your fossil fuel assets

不要试图逃避， 把你的化石燃料资产

to someone else who cares less than you do.

卖给比你更不关心这个问题的人。

You own this problem.

你对这个问题负有责任，

You need to fix it.

你需要解决它。

Decarbonizing your portfolio helps no one but your conscience.

让你的投资组合脱碳 只会让你更心安。

You must decarbonize your product.

你必须使你的产品脱碳。

If you're a politician or a civil servant,

如果你是一个政治家或公务员，

you need to look at your favorite climate policy and ask:

就需要针对你最喜欢的气候政策 提出这样的问题：

How is it helping to decarbonize fossil fuels?

它对化石燃料的脱碳有帮助吗？

How is it helping to increase the fraction

它是如何帮助增加

of carbon dioxide we generate from fossil fuels

我们从化石燃料中产生 且能被永久性安全处理的

that is safely and permanently disposed of?

二氧化碳的比例的呢？

If it isn't, then it may be helping to slow global warming,

如果它做不到，那么它可能 依然有助于减缓全球变暖，

which is useful,

还是很有益处的，

but unless you believe in that ban, it isn't going to stop it.

但除非你对那项禁令的效果充满信心， 不然真正的减排就无从谈起。

Finally, if you're an environmentalist,

最后，如果你是一个环保主义者，

you probably find the idea of the fossil fuel industry itself

你可能会发现，化石燃料工业本身

playing such a central role in solving the climate change problem disturbing.

在解决气候变化的问题上扮演着 重要角色这一想法很令人不安。

"Won't those carbon dioxide reservoirs leak?"

你会担心那些二氧化碳储存库

you'll worry,

会不会泄漏，

"Or won't some in the industry cheat?"

或者一些行业会不会作弊。

Over the coming decades, there probably will be leaks,

在未来的几十年里， 可能会有泄漏，

and there may be cheats,

也可能会有欺诈，

but those leaks and those cheats

但这些泄漏和欺骗

will make decarbonizing fossil fuels harder,

会让化石燃料脱碳变得更加困难，

they don't make it optional.

不能让它成为一个选项。

Global warming won't wait for the fossil fuel industry to die.

全球变暖不会等到化石燃料工业消亡，

And just calling for it to die

而仅仅让它走向尽头，

is letting it off the hook from solving its own problem.

就等于是让它自动摆脱了 需要解决自身问题的困境。

In these divided times, we need to look for help

在这个两极分化的时代，

and maybe even friends in unexpected places.

我们需要在意想不到的地方 寻求帮助，甚至是寻找盟友。

It's time to call on the fossil fuel industry

是时候呼吁化石燃料行业

to help solve the problem their product has created.

帮助解决他们的产品 所造成的问题了。

Their engineers know how,

他们的工程师知道怎么做，

we just need to get the management to look up from their shoes.

我们只需要让管理层开始直面问题。

Thank you.

谢谢。