My Search for Proof Aliens Exist | Avi Loeb | TED

翻译人员: Kathryn Yi 校对人员: suya f.

When I look up at the sky at night,

当我夜晚仰望天空时，

I see 100 billion stars of the Milky Way galaxy.

我看到银河系 的 1000 亿颗恒星。

They look like lights in cabins of a giant spaceship,

它们看起来像一艘巨型太空飞船

The Milky Way, sailing through space.

“银河系”舱内的灯光， 正在太空中航行。

And I wonder

我想知道那些客舱里

if there are other passengers in those cabins.

是否还有其他乘客。

There are 100 billion of them,

其中有 1000 亿，

comparable to the number of people who ever lived on Earth.

与曾经生活在地球上的人数相当。

It would be arrogant to think otherwise,

如果不这样想， 认为我们是孤独的，

that we are alone,

我们是独一无二和特别的，

that we are unique and special,

那将是傲慢自大的，

especially if you read the news every day.

特别是如果你每天都读新闻。

We are not the pinnacle of creation.

我们不是创造的巅峰之作。

There is room for improvement.

还有改进的余地。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I'm just a curious farm boy,

我只是个好奇的农场男孩，

and I wonder about the world around me.

我想知道周围的世界。

And I hate to behave like the adults in the room,

而且我讨厌表现得 像房间里的成年人，

because they often pretend to know more than we actually know.

因为他们经常假装知道的 比我们实际知道的要多。

And that bothered me since I was a young kid.

从我还是个孩子的时候起， 这就困扰着我。

And so I decided to become a scientist

因此，我决定成为一名科学家

and answer the questions based on evidence,

根据证据来回答问题，

not based on prejudice,

不是基于偏见，

not based on the politics

也不是基于在社交媒体上

of getting the largest number of likes on social media.

获得最多点赞的政治。

I don't have a footprint on social media.

我在社交媒体上没有足迹。

I enjoy nature.

我喜欢大自然。

Whatever it brings to our doorstep is welcome.

无论它带到我们家门口的是什么，

都值得欢迎。

So let's just look around.

因此，让我们环顾四周。

And for 70 years,

70 年来，

we've been searching for radio signals.

我们一直在寻找无线电信号。

This is equivalent to staying at home

这相当于待在家里

and waiting for a phone call that may never come

等着可能永远不会打来的电话，

because nobody cares that we are lonely.

因为没人在乎我们是否孤独。

It may also be that others are addicted to digital screens

也可能是其他 人沉迷于数字屏幕

and they live in a virtual reality,

他们生活在虚拟现实中，

as we are at this point in time.

就像我们现在一样。

A much better approach

更好的方法

is to check if there is any object in our backyard

是检查我们的后院里是否有任何

that may have arrived from a neighbor's yard.

可能 来自邻居院子的物体。

Like a tennis ball,

就像网球一样，

that may tell us that the neighbor plays tennis.

这可能会告诉我们邻居在打网球。

And we haven't really checked until the last decade.

而且直到过去十年我们才真正检查过。

The first object to have been reported by astronomers

天文学家

that came from outside the solar system looked really weird.

报告的第一个来自太阳系以外的 天体看起来真的很奇怪。

It was discovered by a telescope in Hawaii.

它是由夏威夷的望远镜发现的。

When it passed close to Earth, it was the size of a football field.

当它靠近地球经过时， 它的大小相当于一个足球场。

What you see behind me is the artist's depiction.

你在我身后看到 的是艺术家的描绘。

It looked really weird

它看起来真的很奇怪，

because as it was tumbling every eight hours,

因为它每隔八小时翻滚一次，

the amount of sunlight reflected from it changed by a factor of ten,

反射的阳光量就会变化十倍，

which meant that it has a very extreme shape,

这意味着它的 形状非常极端，

most likely flat, like a pancake.

很可能是扁平的， 就像煎饼一样。

And moreover,

而且，

it exhibited a push away from the sun

它表现出某种神秘力量

by some mysterious force

推离太阳的力量，

because there was no evaporation,

因为没有蒸发， 周围没有彗星尾巴，

no cometary tail around it, no dust, no gas.

没有灰尘， 没有气体。

So the question was, what is pushing it?

所以问题是，是什么在推动它？

And I suggested that maybe it's the reflection of sunlight,

我建议也许 是阳光的反射，

but for that, the object had to be very thin, like a sail.

但为此，物体必须非常薄，就像帆一样。

And that meant that it was not produced naturally.

这意味着它 不是自然产生的。

Maybe it's a surface layer, maybe it's space trash,

也许是表面层， 也许是太空垃圾，

like a plastic bag tumbling in the wind.

比如在风中翻滚的塑料袋。

And so we go back 70 years to a question that Enrico Fermi, the physicist,

因此，我们回到了70年前， 物理学家恩里科·费米在洛斯阿拉莫斯

asked at Los Alamos, "Where is everybody?"

问的一个问题： “每个人都在哪里？”

Well, this is a question that single people often ask.

好吧，这是单身人士经常问的问题。

But if you stay at home --

但是如果你待在家里——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You will not find anyone.

你找不到任何人。

You have to go to dating sites.

你必须去交友网站.

At the very least, you need to look through your windows for other people.

至少，你需要 透过窗户寻找其他人。

And he didn't seek the evidence.

而且他没有寻求证据。

He was just asking the question and kept repeating it.

他只是在问问题 并不断重复。

And if we don't look for evidence, we will not find anything.

而且，如果我们不寻找证据， 我们将找不到任何东西。

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

这是一个自我实现的预言。

It's a way to maintain our ignorance.

这是保持我们无知的一种方式。

And science is better than politics.

科学胜于政治。

We can find the evidence if we allocate the funds for it.

如果我们为此分配资金， 我们就能找到证据。

This is a real image, what you see behind me,

这是一张真实的画面， 你在我身后看到的，

it's the Tesla Roadster car

是 2018 年猎鹰重型飞机发射时

that was put as a dummy payload on the Falcon Heavy launch of 2018.

作为虚拟载荷装备的特斯拉跑车。

It's now moving in an elliptical orbit around the Sun,

它现在在绕太阳的椭圆 轨道上移动，

and perhaps in 20 million years, it will collide with Earth.

也许在 2000 万年后， 它将与地球碰撞。

And if it will do so unexpectedly,

而且，如果它出人意料，

some of my colleagues would argue

我的一些同事会争辩说：

"This is a rock of a type that we've never seen before."

“这是一种我们从未见过的岩石。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We cannot see it with our best telescopes because it's too small.

我们用最好的望远镜看不到它， 因为它太小了。

It doesn't reflect enough sunlight.

它不能反射足够的阳光。

'Oumuamua was the size of a football field, big enough for us to see.

“Oumuamua 有足球场那么大， 足以让我们看见。

And so the next Copernican revolution

因此，下一次哥白尼革命

would be that we are not at the intellectual center

将是我们不在宇宙

of the universe.

的知识中心。

Not only that we are not at the physical center of the universe,

不仅我们不在宇宙的物理中心，

but actually, you know, we arrive to the play relatively late.

而且实际上，你知道， 我们进入游戏的时间相对较晚。

We are not at the center of stage.

我们不是舞台的中心。

The play is not about us.

这部戏不是关于我们的。

We should be modest.

我们应该保持谦虚。

We keep thinking that it's about us, but it's not.

我们一直认为这是 关于我们的，但事实并非如此。

And we better find other actors that will tell us what the play is about.

而且我们最好找其他能告诉我们 这部戏是关于什么的演员。

And people often say extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,

人们常说，非同寻常的说法 需要非同寻常的证据，

but they are not seeking the evidence.

但他们并不是在寻求证据。

Actually, extraordinary evidence requires extraordinary funding.

实际上，非凡的证据 需要特别的资金。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

Elon Musk argued recently,

埃隆·马斯克最近争辩说：

"I don't see any aliens."

“我看不到任何外星人。”

But new scientific knowledge does not fall into our lap.

但是新的科学知识 不会落入我们的圈子里。

We had to invest 10 billion dollars

为了找到希格斯玻色子，

in the Large Hadron Collider in order to find the Higgs boson.

我们必须在大型强子对撞机 上投资 100 亿美元。

We had to invest 10 billion dollars in the Webb telescope

为了找到第一 代星系， 我们必须在韦伯望远镜

in order to find the first generation of galaxies.

上投资 100 亿美元。

This is the way science is done.

科学就是这样做的。

You need to put the effort in order to find something new.

你需要付出努力 才能找到新的东西。

And only over the past decade,

仅在过去的十年中，

we discovered objects that came from outside the solar system.

我们才发现了 来自太阳系以外的物体。

The first one was actually a decade ago.

第一个实际上是十年前。

It was a meteor, an object half a meter in size

那是一颗流星， 一个大小为半米的物体，

that collided with Earth

它与地球碰撞

and burned up in the atmosphere.

并在大气层中燃烧。

It was spotted by US government satellites.

它被美国政府的卫星发现。

The fireball that it generated

它产生的火球

released a few percent of the Hiroshima atomic bomb energy,

释放了百分之几的广岛原子弹能量，

and it was moving too fast to be bound to the Sun's gravity.

而且它移动得太快了， 无法受太阳重力的约束。

And so we concluded it's interstellar.

因此，我们得出结论，它是星际的。

It came from outside the solar system.

它来自太阳系外。

Could it be a Voyager-like meteor?

它可能是一颗 类似 Voyager 的流星吗？

Imagine our own spacecraft colliding with a planet like Earth.

想象一下我们自己的航天器 与像地球这样的行星碰撞。

In the future, it would appear as a meteor of unusual material strength

将来，它将以一种具有不同寻常物质强

and unusual speed,

度和不同寻常速 度的流星出现，

which are exactly the properties of this meteor from 2014.

这正是这颗流星自 2014 年以来的特性。

And then 'Oumuamua was discovered in 2017,

然后在 2017 年 发现了 ’Oumuamua，

and finally a comet appeared,

最后出现了一颗

also from interstellar space, was moving too fast.

同样来自星际空间的彗星， 它的移动速度太快了。

And so my colleagues argued,

因此，我的同事争辩说：

"Well, this one looks familiar.

“嗯，这个看起来很熟悉。

Doesn't it convince you that the others are natural in origin?

它不能说服你相信其他的 都是天然的吗？

Rocks of a type that we've never seen before?"

我们以前从未见过 的那种岩石？”

And I say, if I go down the street and I see a weird person,

然后我说，如果我走到街 上看到一个奇怪的人，

and after that I see a normal person,

然后我看到一个普通人，

it doesn't make the weird person normal.

那并不能使这个奇怪的人变得正常。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now the US --

现在，美国——

(Laughter)

（笑声）国家情报

Director of National intelligence --

总监——

(Applause)

（掌声）

Avril Haines delivered three reports

艾薇儿·海恩斯

to the US Congress, talking about unidentified anomalous phenomena.

向美国国会提交了三份报告， 谈到了不明的异常现象。

The good news is the sky is not classified.

好消息是天空 不是机密的。

We don't need to wait for the US government to tell us

我们不必等到美国政府

what lies outside the solar system.

告诉我们太阳系之外有什么。

Their day job is national security.

他们的日常工作是国家安全。

My day job is figuring out what lies beyond the solar system.

我的日常工作是弄 清楚太阳系之外的东西。

And the sky is not classified.

而且天空不是机密的。

We can answer the question ourselves.

我们可以自己回答这个问题。

So I'm leading the Galileo project.

所以我正在领导伽利略项目。

We built an observatory at Harvard University

我们在哈佛大学建造了一个天文台

that monitors the sky 24/7,

可以全天候监视天空，

looking for objects that are not familiar,

寻找不熟悉的物体，

not birds, balloons, drones, airplanes, satellites.

而不是鸟、气球、 无人机、飞机、卫星。

So far, we monitored half a million objects.

到目前为止， 我们监测了 50 万个物体。

Haven't found anything unusual yet,

还没有发现任何不寻常的东西，

but we keep looking

但我们一直在寻找

and we are using machine-learning software to figure out

我们正在使用机器学习 软件来弄清楚我们在看

what we are looking at.

什么。

But the most exciting endeavor that I was involved in

但我参与的最激动人心的事业

is an expedition to the Pacific Ocean near Papua New Guinea,

是前往巴布亚新几内亚 附近的太平洋探险，

to look for the materials from this meteor that I described before.

从我之前描述的这颗流星中寻找物质。

And the US Space Command issued a letter to NASA

美国太空司 令部致函美国宇航局，

confirming at the 99.999 percent

确认

that this object indeed originated from outside the solar system.

该物体确实起源于太阳系以外， 比例为 99.999％。

Based on its high speed, it was moving faster than 95 percent of all stars

基于其高速度， 它的移动速度

in the vicinity of the Sun.

超过了太阳附近所有恒星的 95％。

It exploded in the lower atmosphere,

它在距离巴布亚新几内亚马努斯岛

about 90 kilometers away from Manus Island in Papua New Guinea,

约 90 公里的低层大气中爆炸

and that meant that the object had material strength

这意味着该物体的物质

tougher than even iron meteorites.

强度甚至比铁陨石还要强。

And so I led an expedition in June 2023.

因此，我在 2023 年 6 月 率领了一次探险。

You can see the team on the ship that was fittingly called Silver Star,

你可以看到 这艘名为 Silver Star 的飞船上的队伍，

and we used the sled with magnets on both sides

我们用两边都有磁铁的雪橇

to search for droplets left over from the explosion of this meteor.

来寻找这颗流星爆炸留下的液滴。

And at the bottom left you see the filming crew of Netflix.

在左下角你可以看到 Netflix 的摄制组。

They are preparing a documentary about this research,

他们正在准备一部 关于这项研究的纪录片，

and the director asked me,

导演问我：

"Avi,

“阿维，

it looks like you are running," because I was jogging at sunrise,

你看起来像在跑步”， 因为日出时我正在慢跑，

as I often do on land for a few miles.

就像我经常在陆地上跑几英里一样。

And he said, "Are you running away from something or towards something?"

然后他说：“你是在逃避 某件事还是逃向某物？”

And I said, "Both.

然后我说：“两者兼而有之。

I'm running away from some of my colleagues

我正在逃避一些 在没有寻求证据的情况下

who have strong opinions without seeking evidence,

有强烈见解的同事，

and I'm running towards a higher intelligence in interstellar space."

我正在向星际空间中 更高的智力迈进。”

Now we used this sled and collected magnetic particles

现在我们用这个雪橇

from the ocean floor about a mile deep.

从大约一英里深的海底收集了磁性粒子。

And then I brought them to my colleagues at Harvard University.

然后我把它们带到哈佛 大学的同事那里。

They look like metallic spheres,

它们看起来像金属球体， 与收集它们的沙子背景

very distinct from the background of sand in which they were collected.

截然不同。

And my colleague at Harvard, Stein Jacobsen,

而我在哈佛的同事 斯坦·雅各布森（Stein Jacobse）

is a world-renowned geochemist.

是世界知名的地球化学家。

He used the electron microprobe, a mass spectrometer, in his laboratory.

他在实验室里使用了 电子微探针，即质谱仪。

The person on the other side of me in this picture

这张照片 中我另一边的人

is a summer intern, Sophie Bergstrom,

是一名暑期实习生索菲·伯格斯特罗姆，

who found most of our molten droplets.

他发现了我们的大部分熔滴。

And so I called her the spheral hunter.

所以我称她为球形猎人。

And most of our spherules were actually of a type familiar from the solar system,

我们的大多数球体实际上 是太阳系中熟悉的类型，

but about 10 percent of them looked unusual,

但其中大约 10% 看起来不寻常，

and they had a chemical composition

而且它们的化学成分与太阳系材料

very different from solar system materials.

截然不同。

They had abundances of elements like beryllium, lanthanum, uranium,

它们含有大量的化合物， 例如铍，铀，比太阳系材料中

that are up to a factor of 1,000 more

发现的多

than found in solar system materials.

达 1,000 倍。

They were not from the Earth, not from the moon, not from Mars,

它们不是来自地球， 不是来自月球，不是来自火星，

not from asteroids.

也不是来自小行星。

And so now the question arises,

所以现在问题来了，

was this a rock from another star?

这是另一颗星的摇滚吗？

And of course, one possibility

当然，一种可能性

is that there was a natural process that produced it.

是产生它的自然过程。

For example, most stars are dwarf stars, 10 percent of the mass of the sun,

例如，大多数恒星是矮星， 占太阳质量的 10％，

and they are 100 times denser than the sun.

它们的密度是太阳的 100 倍。

And so if you bring a planet like the Earth close to them,

因此，如果你让一颗 像地球这样的行星靠近他们，

they spaghettify the planet,

它们会

make a stream of rocks

使行星变为意大利面， 形成岩石流，这些岩石可以以与

that could be ejected at a speed similar to that of this meteor.

这颗流星相似的速度喷射出来。

But it's also possible that this object was of artificial origin,

但是这个物体也可能是人造的，

in which case,

在这种情况下，

if we look for bigger pieces of the object,

如果我们寻找更大的物体，

we might find a gadget with buttons on it.

我们可能会发现一个 上面有按钮的小工具。

And I asked students in my class,

然后我问班上的学生：

"If we find such a gadget, should we press a button?"

“如果我们找到了这样的小工具， 我们应该按下按钮吗？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, some of my critics argued, maybe it's coal ash.

现在，我的一些批评者认为， 也许是煤灰。

So we looked at 55 elements from the periodic table

因此，我们查看了元素周期表 中的 55 种元素，

and found that the abundances of elements are very different from coal ash.

发现元素的丰度与煤灰有很大不同。

So it's not coal ash.

所以它不是煤灰。

Others argued,

其他人则争辩说：

"Maybe it was not a meteor, maybe it was a truck."

“也许它不是流星， 可能是一辆卡车。”

Well, the data came from US government satellites.

好吧，数据来自美国政府的卫星。

We actually based our search region

实际上，我们的搜索区域

on the Department of Defense coordinates,

以国防部的坐标为基础，

and we went 26 times back and forth, searching that region.

我们来回搜索了 26 次， 搜索了该区域。

So the next expedition, hopefully within the year,

因此，下一次探险，希望在一年之内，

will search for bigger pieces of the object,

将寻找更大的天体部分，

maybe even the core of the object,

甚至可能是物体的核心，

because that could have a huge impact on humanity.

因为这可能会对人类产生巨大影响。

We all know the biblical story about Moses,

我们都知道圣经中关于摩西的故事，

who looked at the bush

他带着宗教敬畏的心情

that was burning without being consumed,

看着燃烧的灌木丛

with religious awe, and that gave Moses the sense

这使摩西感觉

that there is a superhuman entity,

到外面有一个超人的实体，

God, out there.

上帝。

Now, Friedrich Nietzsche in 1882

现在，弗里德里希·尼采在 1882 年

argued, "God is dead."

争辩说：“上帝已经死了。”

And that gave rise to the modern period

这催生了现代科学和技术时期

of science and technology,

科学和技术时期，

where humans have this hubris,

人类有这种傲慢，

they lack modesty.

缺乏谦虚。

Nobody is smarter than us,

没有人比我们更聪明，

we are at the top of the food chain.

我们处于食物链的顶端。

Maybe AI will do a little better.

也许人工智能会做得更好一点。

But AI is just a digital mirror.

但是人工智能只是一面数字镜子。

It reflects our faults.

它反映了我们的缺点。

It's nothing better than us.

没有什么比我们更好的了。

It's not a digital species.

它不是一个数字物种。

It's just us.

只有我们。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And if we find a partner out there, of course,

当然如果我们在 那里找到合作伙伴，

that will give a new meaning to our existence.

那将赋予 我们的存在新的意义。

And it's a whole different ball game.

而且这是一场完全不同的球类游戏。

Something from another star has nothing to do with us.

来自另一颗恒星的东西与我们无关。

And we better be ready for that.

我们最好为此做好准备。

Not look at the mirror and imagine something like it,

不要像科幻故事那样看镜子

as science fiction stories do.

然后想象类似的东西。

Now the good news is, next year,

现在的好消息是，明年，

the Rubin Observatory in Chile

智利的鲁宾天文台

will survey the southern sky every four days

将使用一台像人一样大小的摄像机

with a camera that is the size of a person,

每四天对南方天空进行一次测量，

3.2 billion pixels,

32 亿像素，

a thousand times more than your cell phone camera.

是手机摄像头的千倍。

And so if we find more objects like 'Oumuamua,

因此，如果我们找到更多像 “Oumuamua” 这样的物体，

it might give us a sense of modesty.

它可能会给我们一种谦虚感。

We might bring back this sense of awe that Moses had.

我们可能会带回摩西 的这种敬畏感。

Except in this time, it will be based

除了这段时间外，

on something that was delivered from interstellar space, from a neighbor.

它将基于星际空间 从邻居那里运来的东西。

And that is quite promising, actually, because it may change our priorities.

实际上，这很有希望， 因为它可能会改变我们的优先事项。

Instead of spending four trillion dollars a year on military budgets,

与其每年在军事预算上 花费四万亿美元，

killing each other for territories on this rock,

互相残杀，争夺这块岩石上的领土， 太阳形成后遗留下来的小石头，

the tiny rock, left over from the formation of the sun,

我们可能会意识到街区里

we might realize that there is a smarter kid on the block,

有一个更聪明的孩子，

and that kid may provide a better role model than our politicians.

而且那个孩子可能比 我们的政治家树立更好的榜样。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And if we allocate four trillion dollars a year to space exploration,

如果我们每年拨款 四万亿美元用于太空探索，

we could send a CubeSat towards every star in the Milky Way galaxy,

我们可以在一个世纪内 向银河系中的每颗恒星，

hundreds of billions of them, within one century.

包括数千亿颗恒星 发射一颗 CubeSat。

And it gets better than that,

而且它比这更好，

because if we find a superhuman intelligence out there ...

因为如果我们在那里 找到超人的智力...

We might learn new physics.

我们可能会学习新的物理学。

The first question I would ask is, "What happened before the Big Bang?"

我要问的第一个问题是， “宇宙大爆炸之前发生了什么？”

And they might have quantum gravity engineers

而且他们可能有 量子重力工程师

that are capable of creating a baby universe in the laboratory.

能够在实验室里创造一个小宇宙。

And this job of creating a new universe can be perfected.

而创造新宇宙的这项 工作是可以完善的。

And that would help us actually,

这实际上会对我们有所帮助，

(Laughter)

（笑声）

given that there is a lot of room for improvement

因为我们所居住

in the world that we inhabit.

的世界还有很大的改善空间。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Chris Anderson: Thank you, Avi.

克里斯·安德森： 谢谢你，阿维。

(Applause)

（掌声）