The Vital Data You Flush Down the Toilet | Newsha Ghaeli | TED

翻译人员: Lening Xu 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

Has it ever occurred to you, as you walk down the street,

你有没有想过，

当你走在街上时，

just how much data is flowing beneath your feet?

有多少数据在你脚下流动？

A wealth of information on our health and our well-being

关乎我们健康福祉的大量信息，

is running through our city sewers,

正流经城市的下水道，

and we're all contributing to it every single time we use the toilet.

我们每次上厕所， 都会为此做出贡献。

Think about it.

想一想。

Everybody pees and poops,

每个人都要大小便，

and we know that urine and stool contain a rich source of information

我们知道，

尿液和粪便包含有关我们 健康和福祉的丰富信息来源。

on our health and our well-being.

Our doctors look at it all the time to analyze for a variety of things.

医生们一直研究它， 分析各种各样的信息。

Now, every time you flush,

每当你冲水时，

you're sending this valuable information down into our sewers,

你都会将这些有用的信息 送进我们的下水道，

where it's mixing with waste from hundreds of thousands of other people.

那里会混入成千上万 其他人的排泄物。

Once collected, it looks something like this.

收集起来就是这样。

This tiny sample

这个微小的样本，

comes from a wastewater treatment plant

来自处理超过 一百万人污水的处理厂。

that represents more than one million people.

And from it, we can detect all sorts of things about that community:

从中，我们可以发现有关 该社区各种各样的信息：

the infectious disease viruses that are circulating in our bodies,

在我们体内传播的传染病病毒，

chemical markers for the drugs that are most commonly consumed.

经常服用药物的化学标记。

And we can analyze for all the bacteria that live in our collective microbiomes.

我们可以分析生活在 微生物集群中的所有细菌。

Now, if this sounds too close for comfort,

如果这听起来不舒服，

just consider all the personalized data that you're parting with every day

想想每天使用智能手机或智能手表时 要分享的所有个性化数据即可。

when you use gadgets like your smartphone or your smart watch.

What's amazing about sewage

污水的神奇之处在于，

is that it's naturally aggregated and anonymized.

它是自然聚合和匿名的。

Once flushed,

一旦被冲走，

your waste is mixing with that of thousands and thousands of people,

你的排泄物就会 与成千上万人的混在一起，

so there's actually no way to tie any information from here

因此无法将来自这里的任何信息 与特定的人联系起来。

back to a specific person.

Put differently, it's the perfect data dump.

换句话说， 这是完美的数据转储。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The thoughtful collection and analysis of sewage

深思熟虑的污水收集和分析，

has the potential to radically improve health outcomes

有可能会从根本上 改善世界各地城市的健康状况，

in cities around the world,

and it's a growing field called "wastewater epidemiology."

这是一个不断发展的领域， 被称为“废水流行病学”。

And wastewater epidemiology is but one example

废水流行病学只是当今城市 生成的所有大数据的一个例子。

of all the big data that we're generating in our cities today.

Consider all the data that you generate with every phone call, package delivered,

想想每次通话、快递、 驾驶所生成的所有数据。

mile driven.

It's data from cameras, sensors, drones,

来自摄像头、 传感器、无人机、

空气质量、水质监测的数据，

air quality, water quality monitoring,

and the vast amounts of information generated by our health care

以及医疗保健和教育系统 产生的大量信息。

and our educational systems.

All of this information, these digital breadcrumbs,

所有这些信息， 这些数字面包屑，

tell us unique stories about our cities and the way that we live our lives.

向我们讲述了有关城市 和生活方式的独特故事。

The thoughtful collection and analysis of this information

收集和深入分析这些信息，

has the power to inform real-time improvements

能够为实时改善提供帮助，

to things like social policy,

如社会政策、环境管理、 健康公平等方面。

environmental management, health equity and more.

As an architect, I believe that we need to harness

作为一名架构师，

我认为，

我们必须利用每天在城市中 生成的数亿TB的数据。

the hundreds of millions of terabytes of data

that we're generating in our cities each and every day.

And this is important now more than ever,

现在比以往更为重要，

because for the first time in human history,

因为在人类历史上， 第一次，

more than half of all people live in cities.

一半以上的人口生活在城市中。

By 2050,

到 2050 年，

this number will grow to nearly seven in 10 people.

这一数字将增长至将近十分之七。

Now just think about what that means for a second.

想一想这意味着什么。

It means our biggest crises,

这意味着我们最大的危机，

from climate change to pandemics to growing inequality,

从气候变化到流行病再到 日益加剧的不平等现象，

are going to hit cities first and hardest.

将首先对城市造成最严重的打击。

But the era of big data offers an opportunity

但是， 大数据时代为解决这些问题，

for new and creative solutions to tackle these problems.

提供了新的创造性解决方案。

So let's dive into the opportunity presented by wastewater epidemiology.

因此，让我们深入探讨 废水流行病学带来的机遇。

Some of you may have heard of it as it gained a lot of popularity

你们当中有些人可能听说过它，

因为它在新冠病毒 大流行期间得到普及和关注。

and attention during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2020, research groups from around the world

2020 年， 来自世界各地的研究小组，

began detecting SARS-CoV-2 RNA,

开始在污水样本中 检测出SARS-CoV-2 RNA，

the virus that causes COVID-19, in sewage samples.

即导致新冠肺炎的病毒。

I was on one of those teams.

我曾在其中一个小组任职。

We and others showed that you can actually use sewage

研究发现， 实际上可以通过污水，

as an accurate representation of COVID activity in our communities.

准确反映社区中新冠病毒的活动。

Let me show you what I mean.

让我们看看这幅图，

Here we're looking at a time series over the course of the pandemic.

这是大流行期间的时间序列。

So from March 2020 through just last week.

从 2020 年 3 月到上周。

The blue line represents COVID virus concentrations in sewage samples

蓝线表示美国各地 污水样本中的新冠病毒浓度。

from across the United States.

In yellow, we see COVID clinical case data.

黄线表示的是新冠肺炎 临床病例数据。

For the first two years of the pandemic, case data was very reliable.

在疫情的前两年， 病例数据非常可靠。

People were getting PCR-tested all the time.

人们一直在接受PCR检测。

During those two years,

在这两年中，

the two data sets tracked very well.

这两个数据集的跟踪非常好。

That was great.

太棒了。

It meant that sewage was also reliable

这意味着污水 提供的信息是可靠的，

and an accurate representation of disease burden.

可以准确地反映病例增减。

However, over the past year and a half to two years,

但是，在过去的 一年半到两年中，

we've seen a divergence in those data sets.

我们发现这些数据集存在差异。

People just aren't getting COVID-tested nearly as often.

人们不再那么频繁地 接受新冠病毒检测。

Sewage, on the other hand,

另一方面，

doesn't require us to access health care services.

污水并不要求我们 接受医疗保健服务。

We're all represented just by peeing and pooping.

我们都是通过大小便 提供信息的。

Throughout the pandemic, we and others also showed that sewage is predictive

在整个大流行期间， 我们和其他组都发现，

and a leading indicator of new COVID clinical cases.

污水具有预测性，

是新的新冠肺炎 临床病例的领先指标。

This is because infectious disease viruses incubate in our bodies

在我们出现症状或接受检测之前， 传染病病毒就潜伏在我们体内。

before we develop symptoms or go get tested.

Meanwhile, we've been excreting the virus for days.

同时， 我们已经排出病毒好几天了。

During COVID,

在大流行期间， 研究表明，

it was shown that sewage was anywhere between one to three weeks

污水是临床病例的领先指标， 介于一到三周之间。

leading indicator for clinical cases.

Now I'm going to show you an example

我要举一个例子，

of one time that this led to a big community-impacting decision.

有一次， 这导致了一项影响社区的重大决定。

Here, we're looking at data from the Boston area

在这里，我们看到的是奥密克戎 流行期间波士顿地区的数据。

during the Omicron wave.

In December 2021, towards the end of the month,

2021 年 12 月， 接近月底，

COVID cases began to skyrocket across the country

奥密克戎病例开始激增，

and didn't slow until the end of January.

直到 1 月底才放缓。

Boston Children's Hospital, though, was ready.

但是，波士顿儿童医院 已经提前准备。

They had been looking at Boston area sewage

他们一直在监测 波士顿地区的污水，

and saw the sewage levels go up weeks earlier,

并在几周前看到 污水中的病毒浓度在上升，

so they proactively postponed all non-emergency medical procedures.

因此他们主动推迟了 所有非紧急医疗手术。

They wanted to free up resources so that they could adequately respond

他们腾出资源，

以便全力应对 即将到来的住院高潮。

to the incoming wave of hospitalizations.

Now wastewater epidemiology has been used

现在，废水流行病学也被用来 解决其他紧迫的健康问题。

to tackle other pressing health issues as well.

Before the pandemic,

在新冠大流行之前，

the biggest public health crisis in the United States

美国最大的公共卫生危机，

was our growing drug epidemic.

是日益严重的毒品泛滥。

Drug overdoses were growing year over year

药物过量致死人数逐年增加，

and had become the leading cause of accidental death

已成为 50 岁以下美国人 意外死亡的主要原因。

for Americans under the age of 50.

In 2018, a small town in North Carolina had seen overdoses go up,

2018 年，北卡罗来纳州的一个小镇 出现了药物过量上升的情况，

and they wanted better information,

他们想获得更多的信息，

better data to know what to do about it,

更准确的数据， 以了解该怎么做，

what was driving this trend and how to respond.

是什么推动了这种趋势， 以及如何应对。

So we turned to the sewers, and together with the mayor's office,

因此，我们想到下水道，

并与市长办公室一起开始分析，

we began to analyze sewage samples from several sites across the city

来自全市多个地点的污水样本，

and were able to show that prescription opioids

并得以证明，

处方阿片类药物 是最常使用的药物，

were the drug most commonly consumed, not injectable opioids.

而不是注射的阿片类药物。

Equipped with this data,

有了这些数据，

the city diverted resources from needle exchange sites

该市从针头交换点转移了资源，

and put that money into medication takeback programs instead.

将这笔钱投入药物回收计划。

他们投放广告，

They advertised and held dozens of town halls

并举行了数十次市政厅会议，

where they talked about the adverse effects of prescription painkillers.

讨论处方止痛药的不良影响。

That year,

那一年，

the city saw a 40 percent reduction in overdoses,

该市的药物过量减少了 40％，

and for the first time,

他们首次让社区参与了有关毒品、

they had engaged their community in a dialogue around drugs,

addiction and overdose.

成瘾和药物过量的对话。

Now imagine if every city around the world had access to this sort of information.

想象一下，

如果世界上每个城市 都能获得此类信息。

Before the pandemic,

在大流行之前，

wastewater epidemiology was a tiny field

废水流行病学是一个很小的领域。

with no more than a dozen experts worldwide.

全球只有十几位专家。

Today, 72 countries

如今，

已有 72 个国家使用废水监测 来研究新冠肺炎。

have used wastewater monitoring to understand COVID-19.

And it's time that we leverage these investments

现在是我们利用这些投资，

to monitor for all sorts of other things as well.

来监控各种其他情况的时候了。

Imagine knowing when influenza and RSV are going to peak every year

如果知道每年流感和 呼吸道合胞病毒何时会达到峰值，

so that our hospitals can prepare.

医院就可以做好准备。

Imagine mapping nutrition in our cities

想象一下城市的营养状况图，

so that we can identify food deserts

我们可以发现食物沙漠，

and understand social determinants of health.

并了解健康的社会决定因素。

Imagine identifying superbugs and antibiotic resistant genes

想象一下，识别出现在社区的 超级细菌和抗生素耐药基因。

as they emerge in our communities.

Imagine preventing the next pandemic before it happens.

想象一下，在下一次大流行 发生之前将其预防。

In the way that cholera prompted London to build modern-day sewer systems,

霍乱促使伦敦建造 现代化的下水道系统，

and poor health in the tenements of New York City

而纽约市公寓的健康状况不佳，

were one of the catalysts behind the building of Central Park,

是中央公园建设的催化剂之一，

this is how our cities can learn from COVID-19.

这是我们的城市可以 从新冠病毒中吸取的教训。

And this is precisely how we can foster a new, intelligent kind of urbanization.

而这正是我们培育一种 新的、智能的城市化的方式。

For years now, scientists, policymakers,

多年来，科学家、政策制定者、 建筑师和城市规划师，

architects and urban planners

have been harnessing the power of technology and big data

一直在运用技术和大数据的力量，

to future-proof our cities.

使我们的城市适应未来发展。

Over the last decade,

在过去的十年中，

chief technology officers have been appointed in cities

世界各地的城市 都任命了首席技术官。

around the world.

Roles once reserved for the boardrooms

曾经为硅谷董事会保留的职位，

and hallways of Silicon Valley

are now finally open in city hall.

现在终于向市政厅开放了。

So next time you swipe your credit card,

因此，下次你刷信用卡、

take a ride in a taxi or tap your MetroCard,

乘坐出租车或刷地铁卡时，

just consider how you're contributing

想一想怎么为不断增长的 城市数字基础设施做出贡献。

to your city's ever-growing digital infrastructure.

And next time you use the toilet,

下次上厕所时，

just remember, you're doing your civic duty.

请记得，

你正在履行公民义务。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）