How to bring affordable, sustainable electricity to Africa | Rose M. Mutiso

翻译人员: Wanting Zhong 校对人员: Yihong Tang

So right now, nearly one billion people globally

如今全球有近 10 亿人

don't have access to electricity in their homes.

家中缺乏电力供应。

And in sub-Saharan Africa,

而在撒哈拉以南非洲，

more than half of the population remain in the dark.

超过半数的人口仍生活在黑暗之中。

So you probably all know this image from NASA.

你们或许都见过 NASA 的这张照片。

There's a name for this darkness.

这片黑暗有一个名字，

It's called "energy poverty,"

叫做“能源贫困”，

and it has massive implications for economic development

它对经济发展与社会福祉

and social well-being.

有深远的影响。

One unique aspect of the energy poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa --

撒哈拉以南非洲的能源贫困问题 有一点十分独特——

and by the way, in this talk when I "energy," I mean "electricity" --

另外说明一下，在本次演讲中 我所说的“能源”指的是“电力”——

one thing that's unique about it is

关于能源贫困问题的 一个独特方面是，

there isn't much legacy infrastructure already in place

这个地区的很多国家 缺少已经建好

in many countries of the region.

的遗留基础设施。

So, for example, according to 2015 data,

举个例子，根据 2015 年的数据，

the total installed electricity capacity in sub-Saharan Africa

撒哈拉以南非洲的总装机容量

is only about 100 gigawatts.

只有约 100 吉瓦（GW），

That's similar to that of the UK.

与英国的总装机容量差不多。

So this actually presents a unique opportunity

这其实提供了一个独特的机会，

to build an energy system in the 21st century

让我们能够在21世纪 几乎从零开始

almost from scratch.

构建一个能源系统。

The question is: How do you do that?

问题在于：怎样才能达成这个目标呢？

We could look back to the past and replicate the ways

我们可以回首过去， 效仿以前的做法，

in which we've managed to bring stable, affordable electricity

这些办法曾经将稳定、廉价的电力

to a big part of the world's population.

带给世界上大多数人口。

But we all know that that has some well-known terrible side effects,

但我们都知道，过去的做法 有一些众所周知的可怕的副作用，

such as pollution and climate change,

比如环境污染和气候变化，

in addition to being costly and inefficient.

以及高昂的成本与低下的效率。

With Africa's population set to quadruple by the end of the century,

随着非洲的人口预计 在本世纪末增加四倍，

this is not a theoretical question.

我们面对的并非 只是理论上的问题。

Africa needs a lot of energy, and it needs it fast,

非洲需要大量能源， 这个需求迫在眉睫，

because its population is booming and its economy needs to develop.

因为非洲的人口正在激增， 非洲的经济需要发展。

So for most countries, the general trajectory of electrification

对大部分国家来说， 电气化的一般轨迹

has been as follows.

是这样的：

First, large-scale grid infrastructure is put in place,

首先，铺设好大型电网基础设施，

usually with significant public investment.

这一般需要大量公共投资。

That infrastructure then powers productive centers,

那些基础设施随后 为生产中心供能，

such as factories, agricultural mechanization,

比如工厂、机械化农业、

commercial enterprises and the like.

商业企业等等。

这得以刺激经济增长，

And this then stimulates economic growth,

creating jobs, raising incomes

创造就业，提高收入，

建立起一个能

and producing a virtuous cycle

that helps more people afford more appliances,

帮助更多人 购置电器的良性循环，

which then creates residential demand for electricity.

从而创造居民对电力的需求。

But in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decades of energy projects,

但在撒哈拉以南非洲， 尽管能源项目开展了数十年，

we haven't really seen these benefits.

我们并没有观察到这些效益。

The energy projects have often been characterized by waste,

这些能源项目常常意味着污染、

corruption and inefficiency;

腐败、效率低下；

our rural electrification rates are really low,

我们的农村电气化普及率非常低，

and our urban rates could be better;

城市的电气化普及率 也有提升的空间；

the reliability of our electricity is terrible;

我们的电力可靠性很糟糕；

我们的电费高居全世界的榜首。

and we have some of the highest electricity prices in the whole world.

And on top of all of this,

在此之上，

我们如今正在直面日渐严重 的气候灾难带来的影响。

we are now facing the impacts of the growing climate catastrophe head-on.

非洲需要寻求一条不同的道路。

So Africa will need to find a different path.

And, as it turns out, we are now witnessing

而事实证明，我们现在正在见证

some pretty exciting disruption in the African energy space.

非洲能源市场中 一些激动人心的变革。

This new path is called off-grid solar,

这条崭新的道路叫做“离网太阳能”，

它的诞生结合了廉价太阳能板，

and it's enabled by cheap solar panels,

LED 和电池科技的发展，

advances in LED and battery technology,

and combined with innovative business models.

以及创新性的商业模型。

这些离网太阳能产品多种多样， 从简单的一盏灯，

So these off-grid solar products typically range from a single light

到能够给手机充电、

to home system kits that can charge phones,

给电视供能、

power a television

让电扇运转的居家系统组件。

or run a fan.

I want to be clear:

我想强调的是：

off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa.

离网太阳能在非洲非常重要。

I have worked in the sector for years,

我在这个领域工作多年，

and these products are enabling us to extend basic energy services

而这些产品能让我们 把基本的能源服务

送到世界上最为贫穷的人们手中，

to some of the world's poorest,

raising their quality of life.

提升了他们的生活质量。

This is a very good and a very important thing.

这是件很好、很重要的事情。

However, off-grid solar will not solve energy poverty in Africa,

但是，离网太阳能并不能解决 非洲能源贫困的问题。

and for that matter,

就这一点来说，

neither will a top-down effort to connect every unserved household

自上而下、将每一个未通电的家庭 连接到电网上的尝试，

to the grid.

也不能解决这个问题。

See, I'm not here to rehash that played-out "on-versus-off-grid"

我并不想老调重谈地 再议关于“入网还是离网”

or "old-versus-new" debate.

或者“老技术还是新技术”的争论。

Instead,

反之，

I believe that our inability to grapple with and truly address

我相信，我们之所以 无法掌控并真正解决

energy poverty in Africa

非洲的资源贫困问题，

stems from three main sources.

其主要原因有三点。

First, we don't really have a clear understanding

第一，我们对能源贫困是什么， 以及其扎根之深度

of what energy poverty is, or how deep it goes.

并没有一个清楚的认知。

Second, we are avoiding complex systemic issues

第二，我们在逃避 复杂的体系上的问题，

and prefer quick fixes.

而倾向于快速的权宜之计。

And third, we are misdirecting concerns about climate change.

第三，我们在误导 对于气候变化的关注。

Combined, these three mistakes are leading us to impose a Western debate

这三个错误相结合， 导致我们对能源的未来

on the future of energy

施加了西式的辩论，

and falling back on paternalistic attitudes towards Africa.

重蹈了对非洲家长式态度的覆辙。

So let me try and unpack these three questions.

那么，请让我试图理清这三个问题。

First, what exactly is energy poverty?

首先，能源贫困到底是什么？

能源贫困的主要针对性指标

The main energy poverty targeted indicator

is enshrined in the UN's Seventh Sustainable Development Goal,

记载于联合国的第七个 可持续发展目标，

or SDG 7.

即 SDG 7 之中。

It calls for 100 percent of the world's population

这个目标呼吁，到 2030 年，

确保世界上所有人 都能获得电力。

to have access to electricity by the year 2030.

This binary threshold, however,

然而，这个二元化的门槛

ignores the quality, reliability or utility of the power,

忽略了能源的质量、 可靠性和效用，

though indicators are currently being developed

不过目前我们正在研发能够

that will try and capture these things.

尝试捕捉这些要点的指标。

However, the question of when a household is considered "connected"

但是，一家住户何时能被视作“通电”

的评判标准并不明确。

is not quite clear-cut.

举个例子，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪

So, for example, last year the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

declared all of the villages in India electrified,

在去年宣布，印度境内 全部村庄都通了电，

the criteria for electrification being

而电气化的标准是

a transformer in every village plus its public centers

每个村庄配备一座变电站， 加上它的公共中心，

and 10 percent -- 10 percent -- of its households connected.

和百分之十——没错， 百分之十——的居民能够通电。

Meanwhile,

与此同时，

the International Energy Agency, which tracks progress against SDG 7,

负责跟踪 SDG 7 进度的国际能源署

defines energy access as 50 kilowatt hours per person per year.

将能源获取的标准定义为 每人每年 50 度电。

That's enough to power some light bulbs and charge a phone,

50 度电足够点亮几盏灯泡， 给一台手机充电，

perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan for a few hours a day.

大概每天也能让 低功耗电视或者风扇运行几个小时。

Now, providing entry-level access is an important first step,

提供入门级别的电力获取 是重要的第一步，

但是我们还是不要 过于美化这种状况。

but let's not romanticize the situation.

By any standard, a few lights and not much else

无论以何种标准来看， 如果只能点亮几盏灯，

is still living in energy poverty.

仍然相当于生活在能源贫困之中。

And what's more,

更有甚者，

these energy poverty indicators and targets

这些能源贫困的指标与目标

cover only residential use.

涵盖的仅仅是居民用电。

And yet, households account for just about one quarter

然而，居家用电仅占世界耗电总量

of the world's electricity consumption.

的四分之一。

That's because most of our power is used in industries and for commerce.

这是因为我们大部分的电力 都用在工业与商贸上。

Which brings me to my main point:

这也引出了我的主要论点：

国家想要脱离贫困， 不能没有能驱动各个生产中心

countries cannot grow out of poverty without access to abundant,

affordable and reliable electricity to power these productive centers,

的丰富的、廉价的、可靠的电力，

我将其称为“发展用能源”。

or what I call "Energy for Growth."

As you can see from this graph,

从这幅图表可以看出，

there's simply no such thing as a low-energy, high-income country.

根本没有所谓的 低能耗、高收入国家。

It doesn't exist.

这种国家并不存在。

And yet, three billion people in the world

然而，世界上有 30 亿人口

currently live in countries without reliable, affordable electricity --

目前居住的国家缺乏 可靠的、廉价的电力——

not just to power their homes but also their factories,

他们不仅无法为家里供电， 也无法为工厂，

their office buildings, their data centers

办公楼，数据中心， 以及其他经济活动

and other economic activities.

提供电力支持。

Merely electrifying households and microenterprises

仅仅为家庭和 微型企业供电根本无法解决

cannot solve this deeper energy poverty.

这个更深层的能源贫困问题。

为了解决能源贫困问题，

To solve energy poverty,

we need to deliver reliable, affordable electricity at scale,

我们需要大规模地输送 可靠的、廉价的电力，

to power economy-wide job creation and income growth.

从而为整个社会工作岗位的创造 与收入增长提供动力。

This need, however, bumps against an emerging narrative that,

但是，这个需求却和 一个渐渐浮现的观点产生了矛盾。

faced with climate change,

这个观点声称， 面对当今的气候变化，

we all need to transition from large, centralized power systems

我们都需要实现 从大型、集中式能源系统

to small-scale distributed power.

到小型、分散式能源的转型。

The growth of off-grid solar in Africa --

非洲的离网太阳能正在发展——

and let me repeat, off-grid solar is a good thing --

我重申一次， 离网太阳能是好东西——

但是这种发展很好地 契合了这一观点，

but that growth fits nicely into this narrative

and has led to those claims that Africa is leapfrogging the old ways of energy

从而导致有人声称，非洲正在绕过 传统能源范式进行跨越式发展，

and building its power system from the ground up,

从零开始、一块一块太阳能板地

one solar panel at a time.

打造自己的能源系统。

It's a nice, solicitous narrative, but also quite naïve.

这是一个好听的、诱人的说法， 但同时也很天真。

Like many narratives of technological disruption,

这个说法和很多 关于受硅谷启发所诞生

often inspired by Silicon Valley,

的颠覆性科技的叙述一样，

it takes for granted the existing systems that underpin all of this transformation.

这种说法同样认为，作为这些转型的基础， 这些现有系统的存在是理所当然的。

当谈到创新与能源时，

You see, when it comes to innovating and energy,

the West is working around the edges of a system that is tried and tested.

西方正在研究一个尝试过 和测试过的体系的边缘。

And so all the sexy stuff --

所有那些吸引眼球的东西——

the rooftop solar,

屋顶太阳能电池，

the smart household devices, the electric vehicles --

智能居家设备，电动汽车——

all of this is built on top of a massive and absolutely essential grid,

这些都建立在一张庞大的、 至关重要的电网之上，

which itself exists within a proven governance framework.

这张电网本身也置身于一个 经过证明的管理框架之中。

Even the most advanced countries in the world

即使是世界上最先进的国家，

don't have an example of an energy system that is all edges and no center at scale.

也没有一个只有边缘、没有中心的 大型能源系统的案例。

So ultimately, no approach --

归根结底，

不管是集中式还是分散式系统、 可再生还是化石能源，

be it centralized or distributed, renewable or fossil-based --

can succeed in solving energy poverty

如果找不到方法将 可靠、廉价的电力

without finding a way to deliver reliable, affordable electricity

输送到非洲萌芽的工业与商业领域，

to Africa's emerging industrial and commercial sectors.

非洲的能源贫困依然无解。

So, it's not just lights in every rural home.

所以，我们并不只是要 点亮每一户农村家庭。

It's power for Africa's cities that are growing fast

我们要为非洲 快速发展的城市提供能源，

and increasingly full of young, capable people

这些城市愈发充斥着 年轻有为的人们，

in desperate need of a job.

他们迫切需要工作。

这进而又需要强大的互联

This in turn will require significant interconnectivity

以及规模经济，

and economies of scale,

making a robust and modern grid

使得稳定而现代化的电网

a crucial piece of any energy poverty solution.

成为任何能源贫困解决方案 不可或缺的一部分。

So, our second mistake is falling for the allure of the quick fix.

我们的第二个错误是， 盲目相信快速解决方案。

能源贫困是存在于

You see, energy poverty exists

within a complex socioeconomic and political context.

一个复杂的社会经济 与政治背景下的。

诸如离网太阳能之类的 新型电气化模型的

And part of the appeal of new electrification models

such as off-grid solar, for example,

一部分吸引力在于，

is they can often bypass the glacial pace and inefficiency of government.

它们大多能绕过 政府的滞缓节奏与低下效能。

See, with small systems you can skip the bureaucracies and the utilities

要是使用小型系统， 你就能跳过官僚机构与程序，

and sell directly to customers.

直接与顾客进行交易。

But to confront energy poverty,

但是要想攻克能源贫困，

你不能忽略政府， 你不能忽略制度，

you cannot ignore governments, you cannot ignore institutions,

you cannot ignore the many players involved in making, moving

你不能忽略大规模生产、 传输和使用电力时

and using electricity at scale,

涉及到的多方参与者。

which is a way to say that when it comes to providing energy for growth,

换句话说， 当我们要为发展供能时，

it's not just about innovating the technology,

我们不仅仅要考虑科技上的革新，

it's about the slow and hard work of improving governance, institutions

还要面对改善治理、制度 与更广阔的宏观环境时

and the broader macroenvironment.

所要付出的漫长与艰苦的努力。

OK, so this is all good and nice, you say.

你可能会说， 这一切听上去都很棒。

But what about climate change?

但关于气候变化又该怎么办？

How do we ensure a high-energy future for everyone

我们如何确保在未来， 每个人都享有充足能源

while also curbing our emissions?

的同时减少排放？

Well, we'll have to make some complex tradeoffs,

我们必须要做出一些复杂的妥协，

but I believe that a high-energy future for Africa

但我相信，对非洲来说 一个能源充足的未来

is not mutually exclusive to a low-carbon future.

和一个低碳的未来并不矛盾。

And make no mistake:

毫无疑问：

the world cannot expect Africa to remain in energy poverty

世界不能指望非洲 因为气候变化

because of climate change.

就一直陷于能源贫困之中。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Actually, the facts show that the opposite is true.

实际上，事实表明， 情况恰好相反。

Energy will be essential for Africa to adapt to climate change

能源对于非洲适应环境变化、 提高抵御能力

and build resilience.

有至关重要的作用。

You see, rising temperatures will mean increased demand for space cooling

气温升高意味着 对于制冷和冷藏

的需求增加。

and cold storage.

地下水减少意味着 抽水灌溉增加。

Declining water tables will mean increased pumped irrigation.

And extreme weather and rising sea levels will require a significant expansion

极端的天气与上升的海平面 将要求我们大幅扩建

and reinforcement of our infrastructure.

以及加固我们的基础设施。

These are all energy-intensive activities.

这些都是高能耗的作业。

So balancing climate change and Africa's pressing need

因此，在气候变化 和非洲向能源充足的未来

转化的迫切需求之间寻找平衡，

to transition to a high-energy future

将会十分艰巨。

will be tough.

But doing so is nonnegotiable; we will have to find a way.

但是否要这样做也是不容磋商的； 我们必须找到办法。

The first step is broadening the terms of the debate

第一步是拓宽辩论的视角，

away from this either-or framing.

从这种非此即彼 的局限中解放出来。

And we also must stop romanticizing solutions

另外，一些解决方案会转移 我们对核心挑战的注意力，

that distract us from the core challenges.

我们也必须停止 对这些方案的美化。

And let's not also forget that Africa is endowed with vast natural resources,

我们也不能忘记， 非洲拥有得天独厚的丰富自然资源，

including significant renewable potential.

其中包含了可观的可再生潜能。

For example, in Kenya, where I'm from,

比如说，在我的祖国肯尼亚，

geothermal power accounts for half of our electricity generation,

有一半的电能来源于地热能，

and with hydro being the other major source,

而水能则是另一个主要电力来源，

we are already mainly powered by renewable energy.

所以我们的主要电力来源 已经是可再生能源了。

We also just brought online Africa's largest wind farm

我们也刚刚开始运行 非洲最大的风力发电厂，

and East Africa's biggest solar facility.

以及东非最大的太阳能发电设施。

（掌声）

(Applause)

In addition,

此外，

new technology means that we can now run and design our power systems

新的技术也意味着 我们现在可以以更高的效率

运行和设计我们的能源系统 以及使用我们的能源，

and use energy more efficiently than ever,

doing more with less.

达到事半功倍的效果。

Energy efficiency will be an important tool

能源效率将会是 我们与气候变化

in the fight against climate change.

作斗争的重要工具。

So in closing, I'd just like to say that Africa is a real place with real people,

那么在最后，我想说的是， 非洲是一个真实的地方，有真实的人民，

navigating complex challenges and major transitions,

她正在应对复杂的挑战和重大的转变，

just like any other region of the world.

正如世界任何其他地方一样。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And while each country and each region

虽然每个国家、每个地区

has its social, economic and political quirks,

都有其独有的社会、经济 与政治特色，

电力的物理原理 在任何地方都是不变的。

the physics of electricity are the same everywhere.

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑声）（掌声）

And the energy needs of our economies

而我们的经济发展对能源的需求

are just as intensive as those of any other economy.

和任何其它经济体一样强烈。

So, the expansion of household electrification

家庭电气化的普及

通过网内外解决方案的组合

through a mix of on- and off-grid solutions

has had an incredible impact in Africa.

对非洲起到了难以置信的影响。

But they are nowhere near sufficient for solving energy poverty.

但它们还远远不足以 解决能源贫困的难题。

To solve energy poverty,

要想克服能源贫困，

we need generation of electricity from diverse sources at scale

我们需要大规模、多样化的发电来源

and modern grids to power a high-energy future,

和现代化的电网， 为能量充足的未来提供动力，

in which Africans can enjoy modern living standards

让非洲人享受现代生活水平

and well-paying jobs.

和高薪工作。

Africans deserve this,

非洲值得拥有这些；

and with one of every four people in the world projected to be African

而到了 2100 年时， 世界上每四个人中

by the year 2100,

将有一人来自非洲，

the planet needs it.

届时，我们的星球也需要它。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）