How to bring affordable, sustainable electricity to Africa | Rose M. Mutiso

83,806 views ・ 2019-11-19

TED


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00:13
So right now, nearly one billion people globally
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don't have access to electricity in their homes.
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And in sub-Saharan Africa,
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more than half of the population remain in the dark.
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So you probably all know this image from NASA.
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There's a name for this darkness.
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It's called "energy poverty,"
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and it has massive implications for economic development
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and social well-being.
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One unique aspect of the energy poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa --
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and by the way, in this talk when I "energy," I mean "electricity" --
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one thing that's unique about it is
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there isn't much legacy infrastructure already in place
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in many countries of the region.
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So, for example, according to 2015 data,
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the total installed electricity capacity in sub-Saharan Africa
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is only about 100 gigawatts.
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That's similar to that of the UK.
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So this actually presents a unique opportunity
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to build an energy system in the 21st century
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almost from scratch.
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The question is: How do you do that?
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We could look back to the past and replicate the ways
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in which we've managed to bring stable, affordable electricity
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to a big part of the world's population.
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But we all know that that has some well-known terrible side effects,
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such as pollution and climate change,
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in addition to being costly and inefficient.
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With Africa's population set to quadruple by the end of the century,
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this is not a theoretical question.
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Africa needs a lot of energy, and it needs it fast,
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because its population is booming and its economy needs to develop.
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So for most countries, the general trajectory of electrification
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has been as follows.
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First, large-scale grid infrastructure is put in place,
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usually with significant public investment.
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That infrastructure then powers productive centers,
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such as factories, agricultural mechanization,
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commercial enterprises and the like.
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And this then stimulates economic growth,
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creating jobs, raising incomes
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and producing a virtuous cycle
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that helps more people afford more appliances,
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which then creates residential demand for electricity.
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But in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decades of energy projects,
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we haven't really seen these benefits.
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The energy projects have often been characterized by waste,
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corruption and inefficiency;
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our rural electrification rates are really low,
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and our urban rates could be better;
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the reliability of our electricity is terrible;
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and we have some of the highest electricity prices in the whole world.
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And on top of all of this,
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we are now facing the impacts of the growing climate catastrophe head-on.
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So Africa will need to find a different path.
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And, as it turns out, we are now witnessing
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some pretty exciting disruption in the African energy space.
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This new path is called off-grid solar,
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and it's enabled by cheap solar panels,
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advances in LED and battery technology,
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and combined with innovative business models.
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So these off-grid solar products typically range from a single light
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to home system kits that can charge phones,
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power a television
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or run a fan.
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I want to be clear:
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off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa.
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I have worked in the sector for years,
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and these products are enabling us to extend basic energy services
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to some of the world's poorest,
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raising their quality of life.
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This is a very good and a very important thing.
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However, off-grid solar will not solve energy poverty in Africa,
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and for that matter,
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neither will a top-down effort to connect every unserved household
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to the grid.
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See, I'm not here to rehash that played-out "on-versus-off-grid"
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or "old-versus-new" debate.
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Instead,
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I believe that our inability to grapple with and truly address
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energy poverty in Africa
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stems from three main sources.
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First, we don't really have a clear understanding
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of what energy poverty is, or how deep it goes.
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Second, we are avoiding complex systemic issues
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and prefer quick fixes.
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And third, we are misdirecting concerns about climate change.
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Combined, these three mistakes are leading us to impose a Western debate
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on the future of energy
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and falling back on paternalistic attitudes towards Africa.
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So let me try and unpack these three questions.
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First, what exactly is energy poverty?
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The main energy poverty targeted indicator
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is enshrined in the UN's Seventh Sustainable Development Goal,
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or SDG 7.
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It calls for 100 percent of the world's population
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to have access to electricity by the year 2030.
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This binary threshold, however,
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ignores the quality, reliability or utility of the power,
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though indicators are currently being developed
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that will try and capture these things.
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However, the question of when a household is considered "connected"
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is not quite clear-cut.
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So, for example, last year the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
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declared all of the villages in India electrified,
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the criteria for electrification being
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a transformer in every village plus its public centers
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and 10 percent -- 10 percent -- of its households connected.
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Meanwhile,
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the International Energy Agency, which tracks progress against SDG 7,
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defines energy access as 50 kilowatt hours per person per year.
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That's enough to power some light bulbs and charge a phone,
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perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan for a few hours a day.
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Now, providing entry-level access is an important first step,
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but let's not romanticize the situation.
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By any standard, a few lights and not much else
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is still living in energy poverty.
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And what's more,
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these energy poverty indicators and targets
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cover only residential use.
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And yet, households account for just about one quarter
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of the world's electricity consumption.
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That's because most of our power is used in industries and for commerce.
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Which brings me to my main point:
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countries cannot grow out of poverty without access to abundant,
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affordable and reliable electricity to power these productive centers,
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or what I call "Energy for Growth."
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As you can see from this graph,
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there's simply no such thing as a low-energy, high-income country.
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It doesn't exist.
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And yet, three billion people in the world
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currently live in countries without reliable, affordable electricity --
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not just to power their homes but also their factories,
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their office buildings, their data centers
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and other economic activities.
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Merely electrifying households and microenterprises
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cannot solve this deeper energy poverty.
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To solve energy poverty,
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we need to deliver reliable, affordable electricity at scale,
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to power economy-wide job creation and income growth.
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This need, however, bumps against an emerging narrative that,
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faced with climate change,
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we all need to transition from large, centralized power systems
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to small-scale distributed power.
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The growth of off-grid solar in Africa --
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and let me repeat, off-grid solar is a good thing --
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but that growth fits nicely into this narrative
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and has led to those claims that Africa is leapfrogging the old ways of energy
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and building its power system from the ground up,
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one solar panel at a time.
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It's a nice, solicitous narrative, but also quite naïve.
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Like many narratives of technological disruption,
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often inspired by Silicon Valley,
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it takes for granted the existing systems that underpin all of this transformation.
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You see, when it comes to innovating and energy,
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the West is working around the edges of a system that is tried and tested.
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And so all the sexy stuff --
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the rooftop solar,
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the smart household devices, the electric vehicles --
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all of this is built on top of a massive and absolutely essential grid,
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which itself exists within a proven governance framework.
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Even the most advanced countries in the world
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don't have an example of an energy system that is all edges and no center at scale.
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So ultimately, no approach --
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be it centralized or distributed, renewable or fossil-based --
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can succeed in solving energy poverty
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without finding a way to deliver reliable, affordable electricity
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to Africa's emerging industrial and commercial sectors.
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So, it's not just lights in every rural home.
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It's power for Africa's cities that are growing fast
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and increasingly full of young, capable people
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in desperate need of a job.
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This in turn will require significant interconnectivity
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and economies of scale,
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making a robust and modern grid
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a crucial piece of any energy poverty solution.
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So, our second mistake is falling for the allure of the quick fix.
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You see, energy poverty exists
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within a complex socioeconomic and political context.
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And part of the appeal of new electrification models
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such as off-grid solar, for example,
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is they can often bypass the glacial pace and inefficiency of government.
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See, with small systems you can skip the bureaucracies and the utilities
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and sell directly to customers.
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But to confront energy poverty,
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you cannot ignore governments, you cannot ignore institutions,
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you cannot ignore the many players involved in making, moving
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and using electricity at scale,
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which is a way to say that when it comes to providing energy for growth,
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it's not just about innovating the technology,
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it's about the slow and hard work of improving governance, institutions
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and the broader macroenvironment.
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OK, so this is all good and nice, you say.
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But what about climate change?
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How do we ensure a high-energy future for everyone
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while also curbing our emissions?
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Well, we'll have to make some complex tradeoffs,
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but I believe that a high-energy future for Africa
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is not mutually exclusive to a low-carbon future.
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And make no mistake:
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the world cannot expect Africa to remain in energy poverty
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because of climate change.
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(Applause)
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Actually, the facts show that the opposite is true.
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Energy will be essential for Africa to adapt to climate change
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and build resilience.
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You see, rising temperatures will mean increased demand for space cooling
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and cold storage.
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Declining water tables will mean increased pumped irrigation.
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And extreme weather and rising sea levels will require a significant expansion
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and reinforcement of our infrastructure.
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These are all energy-intensive activities.
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So balancing climate change and Africa's pressing need
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to transition to a high-energy future
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will be tough.
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But doing so is nonnegotiable; we will have to find a way.
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The first step is broadening the terms of the debate
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away from this either-or framing.
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And we also must stop romanticizing solutions
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that distract us from the core challenges.
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And let's not also forget that Africa is endowed with vast natural resources,
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including significant renewable potential.
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For example, in Kenya, where I'm from,
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geothermal power accounts for half of our electricity generation,
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and with hydro being the other major source,
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we are already mainly powered by renewable energy.
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We also just brought online Africa's largest wind farm
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and East Africa's biggest solar facility.
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(Applause)
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In addition,
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new technology means that we can now run and design our power systems
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and use energy more efficiently than ever,
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doing more with less.
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Energy efficiency will be an important tool
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in the fight against climate change.
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So in closing, I'd just like to say that Africa is a real place with real people,
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navigating complex challenges and major transitions,
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just like any other region of the world.
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(Applause)
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And while each country and each region
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has its social, economic and political quirks,
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the physics of electricity are the same everywhere.
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(Laughter) (Applause)
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And the energy needs of our economies
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are just as intensive as those of any other economy.
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So, the expansion of household electrification
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through a mix of on- and off-grid solutions
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has had an incredible impact in Africa.
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But they are nowhere near sufficient for solving energy poverty.
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To solve energy poverty,
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we need generation of electricity from diverse sources at scale
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and modern grids to power a high-energy future,
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in which Africans can enjoy modern living standards
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and well-paying jobs.
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Africans deserve this,
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and with one of every four people in the world projected to be African
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by the year 2100,
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the planet needs it.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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