How to bring affordable, sustainable electricity to Africa | Rose M. Mutiso

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

So right now, nearly one billion people globally

現在全球有近十億人

don't have access to electricity in their homes.

家中沒有電力。

And in sub-Saharan Africa,

在撒哈拉以南非洲，

more than half of the population remain in the dark.

超過半數的人口 仍然生活在黑暗中。

So you probably all know this image from NASA.

各位可能都看過這張 來自美國太空總署的影像。

There's a name for this darkness.

這種黑暗有個名字，

It's called "energy poverty,"

叫做「能源貧窮」。

and it has massive implications for economic development

它對於經濟發展及社會福祉

and social well-being.

有很重大的意涵。

One unique aspect of the energy poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa --

在撒哈拉以南非洲的能源貧窮問題 有一個獨特的面向——

and by the way, in this talk when I "energy," I mean "electricity" --

順道一提，在這個演說中，我說的 「能源 」就是指「電力」——

one thing that's unique about it is

有一點十分獨特，

there isn't much legacy infrastructure already in place

在這個地區的許多國家中，

in many countries of the region.

沒有已安裝好的基礎設施可供使用。

So, for example, according to 2015 data,

比如，根據 2015 年的資料，

the total installed electricity capacity in sub-Saharan Africa

在撒哈拉以南非洲， 已安裝好的總電量

is only about 100 gigawatts.

只有大約一千億瓦。

That's similar to that of the UK.

和英國差不多。

So this actually presents a unique opportunity

這其實是個獨一無二的機會，

to build an energy system in the 21st century

在 21 世紀，幾乎從零開始，

almost from scratch.

建造一個能源系統。

The question is: How do you do that?

問題是：要怎麼做？

We could look back to the past and replicate the ways

我們可以參考過去為世界 大部分人口造出穩定、

in which we've managed to bring stable, affordable electricity

負擔得起之電力的諸多方法，

to a big part of the world's population.

並複製那些方法。

But we all know that that has some well-known terrible side effects,

但我們都知道那些方法 附帶有很糟糕的副作用，

such as pollution and climate change,

比如污染和氣候變遷，

此外價格昂貴，效率又不高。

in addition to being costly and inefficient.

With Africa's population set to quadruple by the end of the century,

預計在這個世紀末 非洲的人口會成長到四倍，

this is not a theoretical question.

這不是個理論性的問題。

Africa needs a lot of energy, and it needs it fast,

非洲需要許多能源，且要盡快，

because its population is booming and its economy needs to develop.

因為非洲人口在爆增， 經濟需要發展。

So for most countries, the general trajectory of electrification

對大部分的國家來說，

電氣化的一般流程如下：

has been as follows.

First, large-scale grid infrastructure is put in place,

首先，先要具備有大規模的 電力網基礎設施，

usually with significant public investment.

通常會需要大量的公共投資。

That infrastructure then powers productive centers,

接著，那些基礎設施 就會供電給生產中心，

such as factories, agricultural mechanization,

比如工廠、機械化農業、

commercial enterprises and the like.

商業企業等等。

And this then stimulates economic growth,

接著就會刺激經濟成長，

creating jobs, raising incomes

創造工作機會，提高收入，

and producing a virtuous cycle

造成良性循環，

that helps more people afford more appliances,

讓更多人可以負擔得起更多電器，

which then creates residential demand for electricity.

電器就會產生住宅用電的需求。

But in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decades of energy projects,

但在撒哈拉以南非洲， 儘管有數十年的能源計畫，

we haven't really seen these benefits.

我們尚未見到這些益處。

The energy projects have often been characterized by waste,

通常那些能源計畫的特徵

是浪費、腐敗，和沒效率。

corruption and inefficiency;

our rural electrification rates are really low,

我們的鄉村電氣化比率真的很低，

and our urban rates could be better;

都市的比率也還可以更好；

the reliability of our electricity is terrible;

我們電力的可靠度非常差；

and we have some of the highest electricity prices in the whole world.

我們的高電價是世界排行的前幾名。

And on top of all of this,

除此之外，

we are now facing the impacts of the growing climate catastrophe head-on.

我們也正在面對著 不斷加劇的氣候災難。

So Africa will need to find a different path.

所以，非洲得找到一條不同的路。

And, as it turns out, we are now witnessing

結果發現，我們正在見證

some pretty exciting disruption in the African energy space.

非洲能源空間中 很讓人興奮的顛覆性創見。

This new path is called off-grid solar,

新的途徑是離網式 （不用電力網）太陽能，

and it's enabled by cheap solar panels,

要實現它，只要用 便宜的太陽能板、

advances in LED and battery technology,

先進的 LED 及電池技術，

and combined with innovative business models.

再搭配創新的商業模型即可。

So these off-grid solar products typically range from a single light

這類離網式太陽能產品 通常包括單一的燈具、

to home system kits that can charge phones,

可以為手機充電、

power a television

供電給電視機，

or run a fan.

或讓電扇運轉的家用系統組。

I want to be clear:

讓我說清楚：

off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa.

在非洲，離網式太陽能是件大事。

I have worked in the sector for years,

我在該部門任職了許多年，

and these products are enabling us to extend basic energy services

這些產品讓我們可以將 基本的能源服務延伸出去，

給世界上最貧窮的人，

to some of the world's poorest,

raising their quality of life.

改善他們的生活品質。

This is a very good and a very important thing.

這是非常好也非常重要的事。

However, off-grid solar will not solve energy poverty in Africa,

然而，離網式太陽能並不能 解決非洲的能源貧窮問題。

and for that matter,

非洲的能源貧窮問題，

neither will a top-down effort to connect every unserved household

即使是由上至下努力 將每個未有電力服務的家庭

to the grid.

都連結到電力網都無法解決。

See, I'm not here to rehash that played-out "on-versus-off-grid"

我不是來這裡重新來辯論

「離網型」相對「電力網」 或者「舊」相對「新」，

or "old-versus-new" debate.

Instead,

而是相信

I believe that our inability to grapple with and truly address

我們之所以無能真正處理和解決

energy poverty in Africa

非洲的能源貧窮問題，

stems from three main sources.

有三個主要原因。

First, we don't really have a clear understanding

第一，我們並沒有清楚了解

of what energy poverty is, or how deep it goes.

能源貧窮是什麼， 或這個問題有多深。

Second, we are avoiding complex systemic issues

第二，我們會避開 複雜的系統性問題，

and prefer quick fixes.

偏好能快速解決的方案。

And third, we are misdirecting concerns about climate change.

第三，我們誤導了 對於氣候變遷的顧慮。

Combined, these three mistakes are leading us to impose a Western debate

這三個錯誤結合在一起

導致我們採用西方的辯論方式 來討論能源的未來，

on the future of energy

and falling back on paternalistic attitudes towards Africa.

因此又退回了對非洲的專斷態度。

So let me try and unpack these three questions.

讓我試著解開這三個問題。

First, what exactly is energy poverty?

第一，能源貧窮到底是什麼？

The main energy poverty targeted indicator

能源貧窮的主要目標指標

is enshrined in the UN's Seventh Sustainable Development Goal,

被供奉在聯合國的第七個 永續發展目標（SDG 7）中。

or SDG 7.

It calls for 100 percent of the world's population

該目標是要在 2030 年達成

to have access to electricity by the year 2030.

全世界 100% 的人口 都能取得電力。

This binary threshold, however,

然而，這個標準只有達成與否，

ignores the quality, reliability or utility of the power,

忽略了電力的品質、 可靠性，或效用，

though indicators are currently being developed

不過目前正在開發相關指標

that will try and capture these things.

來將上述這些面向也納入考量。

However, the question of when a household is considered "connected"

然而一個家庭 怎樣才算「連上」電力？

is not quite clear-cut.

這個標準還不很清楚。

So, for example, last year the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

比如，去年，印度總理 納倫德拉·莫迪

declared all of the villages in India electrified,

宣佈印度所有的村落都有電力了，

the criteria for electrification being

他所謂有電力的標準是

a transformer in every village plus its public centers

每個村落都有一個變壓器， 且該村的公眾中心

and 10 percent -- 10 percent -- of its households connected.

以及村中的家庭有一成—— 一成——有電力連結。

Meanwhile,

同時，

the International Energy Agency, which tracks progress against SDG 7,

在追蹤 SDG 7 進展的國際能源署

defines energy access as 50 kilowatt hours per person per year.

將取得能源定義為每個人每年 要能使用五萬瓦小時的電力。

That's enough to power some light bulbs and charge a phone,

五萬瓦小時的電力足以供電給 幾個燈泡，為一支手機充電，

perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan for a few hours a day.

也許可以讓低耗電的電視或電扇 一天能運轉幾個小時。

Now, providing entry-level access is an important first step,

提供初級的供電管道 是很重要的第一步，

but let's not romanticize the situation.

但不要把這個情況給想得太美了。

By any standard, a few lights and not much else

從任何標準來看，只供電給 幾個燈泡就沒剩多少電力

is still living in energy poverty.

仍然算是在過能源貧窮的生活。

And what's more,

此外，

these energy poverty indicators and targets

這些能源貧窮指標和目標

cover only residential use.

都只是針對住家用電。

And yet, households account for just about one quarter

但，全世界的耗電當中，

住家只佔了大約四分之一。

of the world's electricity consumption.

That's because most of our power is used in industries and for commerce.

那是因為大部分的電力 用在工業和商業。

Which brings me to my main point:

這就帶到了我的重點：

countries cannot grow out of poverty without access to abundant,

國家如果要從貧窮中成長， 就一定要能夠有

affordable and reliable electricity to power these productive centers,

充裕、可負擔、可靠的電力， 來供電給這些生產中心，

or what I call "Energy for Growth."

我稱這種電力為「成長能源」。

As you can see from this graph,

從這張圖可以看見，

there's simply no such thing as a low-energy, high-income country.

沒有任何國家能做到 低能源、高收入。

It doesn't exist.

這種國家不存在。

And yet, three billion people in the world

但，世界上有三十億人

currently live in countries without reliable, affordable electricity --

居住的國家無法提供可靠、 可負擔的電力——

not just to power their homes but also their factories,

不只是供電給他們的住家， 還有他們的工廠、

their office buildings, their data centers

他們的辦公室大樓、 他們的資料中心，

and other economic activities.

以及其他經濟活動。

Merely electrifying households and microenterprises

僅供電給住家及微型企業

cannot solve this deeper energy poverty.

不可能解決更深的能源貧窮問題。

To solve energy poverty,

要解決能源貧窮問題，我們就需要

we need to deliver reliable, affordable electricity at scale,

大規模遞送可靠、可負擔的電力，

to power economy-wide job creation and income growth.

來支持整個經濟的 工作機會創造和收入成長。

This need, however, bumps against an emerging narrative that,

然而，這種需求 卻碰上了新興的說法：

faced with climate change,

面臨氣候變遷之際，我們都得要

we all need to transition from large, centralized power systems

從大型、中央化的電力系統

to small-scale distributed power.

轉型成小規模分散供應的電力。

The growth of off-grid solar in Africa --

非洲離網式太陽能的成長——

and let me repeat, off-grid solar is a good thing --

讓我再說一次，離網式 太陽能是好東西——

but that growth fits nicely into this narrative

但那種成長非常符合這種說法，

and has led to those claims that Africa is leapfrogging the old ways of energy

導致有人開始宣稱非洲 直接跳過了舊式的發電方式，

and building its power system from the ground up,

從頭開始建造它的電力系統，

one solar panel at a time.

一次一片太陽能板地建造。

It's a nice, solicitous narrative, but also quite naïve.

這種說法很好，很讓人 熱切期盼，但卻也相當天真。

Like many narratives of technological disruption,

和許多來自矽谷的

often inspired by Silicon Valley,

顛覆性技術說法一樣，

it takes for granted the existing systems that underpin all of this transformation.

這種說法也認為用既有系統 來支持整個轉型是理所當然的。

You see, when it comes to innovating and energy,

在創新和能源方面，

the West is working around the edges of a system that is tried and tested.

西方都是盡量利用已經 嘗試過或測試過的系統。

And so all the sexy stuff --

而所有迷人的部分——

the rooftop solar,

屋頂上的太陽能、

the smart household devices, the electric vehicles --

智慧型家庭裝置、電動車——

all of this is built on top of a massive and absolutely essential grid,

上述這些都是建立在一個 絕對必要的大型電網上，

which itself exists within a proven governance framework.

這個電網本身則是在 已證明可行的管理框架之下。

Even the most advanced countries in the world

即使是世界上最先進的國家，

don't have an example of an energy system that is all edges and no center at scale.

都沒有一個大規模能源系統 只有邊緣沒有中心的例子。

So ultimately, no approach --

所以，最終，沒有任何方法——

be it centralized or distributed, renewable or fossil-based --

不論是中央化或分散式、 可再生的或以化石為基礎的——

can succeed in solving energy poverty

能成功解決能源貧窮問題，

without finding a way to deliver reliable, affordable electricity

除非能夠找到一種方式， 來遞送可靠、可負擔的電力

to Africa's emerging industrial and commercial sectors.

給非洲新興的工業和商業部門。

So, it's not just lights in every rural home.

所以，不只是要讓 所有鄉村家庭都有光。

It's power for Africa's cities that are growing fast

還要能夠供電給非洲 快速成長的城市，

and increasingly full of young, capable people

這些城市中有越來越多有能力的 年輕人迫切需要一份工作。

in desperate need of a job.

This in turn will require significant interconnectivity

這樣的供電規模需要大量的相互連結

and economies of scale,

以及規模經濟，

making a robust and modern grid

讓穩健且先進的電網，

a crucial piece of any energy poverty solution.

成為能源貧窮的解決方案。

So, our second mistake is falling for the allure of the quick fix.

所以，我們的第二個錯誤 是受到快速解決方案的誘惑。

You see, energy poverty exists

要知道，能源貧窮存在於

within a complex socioeconomic and political context.

複雜的社會經濟及政治背景中。

And part of the appeal of new electrification models

新的電氣化模型， 比如離網式太陽能，

such as off-grid solar, for example,

有一部分的魅力

is they can often bypass the glacial pace and inefficiency of government.

在於它們通常能繞過 政府的龜速步調和低效率。

See, with small systems you can skip the bureaucracies and the utilities

用小系統，就可以跳過 官僚政治和公用事業，

and sell directly to customers.

直接銷售給客戶。

But to confront energy poverty,

但，若要對抗能源貧窮，

you cannot ignore governments, you cannot ignore institutions,

不能不管政府，不能不管制度，

you cannot ignore the many players involved in making, moving

不能不管製造、移動、使用

大規模電力時會涉及的各方，

and using electricity at scale,

which is a way to say that when it comes to providing energy for growth,

換句話說就是， 如果要提供成長能源，

it's not just about innovating the technology,

重點就不只是創新技術，

it's about the slow and hard work of improving governance, institutions

重點是要花很多時間和努力 來改善政府、制度，

and the broader macroenvironment.

以及更廣的宏觀環境。

OK, so this is all good and nice, you say.

好，你會說： 「這些聽起來都很棒，

But what about climate change?

但，氣候變遷呢？

How do we ensure a high-energy future for everyone

我們要如何確保 在未來人人都有高能源

while also curbing our emissions?

同時還要降低我們的碳排放？」

Well, we'll have to make some complex tradeoffs,

嗯，我們得要做一些複雜的權衡，

but I believe that a high-energy future for Africa

但，我相信，非洲的高能源未來

is not mutually exclusive to a low-carbon future.

並不是和低碳未來完全沒有交集。

And make no mistake:

別弄錯了：

the world cannot expect Africa to remain in energy poverty

世界不能因為氣候變遷 就期望非洲維持能源貧窮。

because of climate change.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Actually, the facts show that the opposite is true.

其實，事實完全相反。

Energy will be essential for Africa to adapt to climate change

若非洲要適應氣候變遷 並建立面對環境的韌性，

and build resilience.

能源是不可缺的。

You see, rising temperatures will mean increased demand for space cooling

溫度上升就意味著對於空間冷卻 以及冷藏的需求會增加。

and cold storage.

Declining water tables will mean increased pumped irrigation.

地下水位下降， 就表示要增加抽取灌溉。

And extreme weather and rising sea levels will require a significant expansion

極端氣候以及海平面上升會需要

大大擴展及強化我們的基礎設施。

and reinforcement of our infrastructure.

These are all energy-intensive activities.

這些活動都需要很多能源。

So balancing climate change and Africa's pressing need

所以，在氣候變遷和非洲的 迫切需求之間取得平衡，

to transition to a high-energy future

以轉型成為高能源的未來

will be tough.

會很艱辛。

But doing so is nonnegotiable; we will have to find a way.

但這是非做不可的； 我們得要想辦法。

The first step is broadening the terms of the debate

第一步是要把辯論範疇變得更廣，

away from this either-or framing.

不要只在非黑即白的 二分架構之下辯論。

And we also must stop romanticizing solutions

我們也得停止 將解決方案想得太美，

that distract us from the core challenges.

讓我們分心，忽略了核心挑戰。

And let's not also forget that Africa is endowed with vast natural resources,

也別忘了，非洲具有 廣大的天然資源，

including significant renewable potential.

有著很大的再生潛力。

For example, in Kenya, where I'm from,

比如，在肯亞，我的家鄉，

geothermal power accounts for half of our electricity generation,

我們的電力有一半是由地熱產生，

and with hydro being the other major source,

水力則是另一個主要電力來源，

we are already mainly powered by renewable energy.

我們的供電已經是 以再生能源為主了。

We also just brought online Africa's largest wind farm

我們不久前也讓非洲最大的 風力發電農場上線了，

and East Africa's biggest solar facility.

它也是東非最大的太陽能設施。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

In addition,

此外，

new technology means that we can now run and design our power systems

新技術意味著我們現在 經營、設計電力系統

and use energy more efficiently than ever,

及使用能源的方式 都比以前更有效率，

doing more with less.

用的更少，做的更多。

Energy efficiency will be an important tool

在對抗氣候變遷上， 能源效率會是一個重要工具。

in the fight against climate change.

So in closing, I'd just like to say that Africa is a real place with real people,

最後，我想要說，

非洲是個真正的地方， 有真正的人住在那裡，

navigating complex challenges and major transitions,

它和世界上的任何一個地區一樣，

都在努力處理複雜的難題 和重大的轉型。

just like any other region of the world.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And while each country and each region

雖然每個國家和每個地區

has its social, economic and political quirks,

在社會、經濟、政策上 都有特別難搞之處，

the physics of electricity are the same everywhere.

電力的物理學在各地都是一樣的。

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑聲）（掌聲）

And the energy needs of our economies

我們經濟的能源需求

are just as intensive as those of any other economy.

也都和任何其他經濟體的 能源需求一樣高。

So, the expansion of household electrification

所以，透過電力網 和離網式解決方案

through a mix of on- and off-grid solutions

來達到住家電氣化的擴展

has had an incredible impact in Africa.

在非洲有很大的影響。

But they are nowhere near sufficient for solving energy poverty.

但這些解決方案 距離解決能源貧窮還很遠。

To solve energy poverty,

要解決能源貧窮，

we need generation of electricity from diverse sources at scale

我們必須要大規模地 從多元化的來源發電，

and modern grids to power a high-energy future,

還要有現代電力網， 來支撐高能源的未來，

in which Africans can enjoy modern living standards

讓非洲人可以享受 現代的生活標準，

and well-paying jobs.

和薪水很好的工作。

Africans deserve this,

這是非洲人應得的，

and with one of every four people in the world projected to be African

且，預測到了 2100 年，

世界人口中會有 四分之一是非洲人，

by the year 2100,

the planet needs it.

因此，地球也需要它。謝謝。

Thank you.

(Applause)

（掌聲）