How Much Clean Electricity Do We Really Need? | Solomon Goldstein-Rose | TED Countdown

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Hello, how is everyone feeling?

Zdravo, kako ste?

(Cheers)

(Uzvici)

Are you ready to solve climate change?

Spremni da rešite klimatske promene?

(Cheers)

(Uzvici)

Good.

Super.

Do you know what a pettawat hour is?

Znate li šta je petavat čas?

Yeah, it's a unit of energy like kilowatt hour or megawatt hour.

To je jedinica za energiju, poput kilovat časa ili megavat časa.

I've been a climate activist since age 11

Ja sam klimatski aktivista od 11. godine

i studirao sam inženjerstvo,

and I studied engineering,

and so I was familiar with those terms.

pa su mi te reči bile poznate.

Kilowatt, megawatt, even gigawatt and terawatt.

Kilovat, megavat, pa i gigavat i teravat.

But I had never heard of a petawatt hour

Ali nikada nisam čuo za petavat čas

until I wrote a book on climate change solutions.

dok nisam napisao knjigu o rešenjima za klimatske promene.

That's because it's so big.

Zato što je tako velik.

But that's the scale I want to talk about.

No, to je razmer o kom želim da govorim.

A petawatt hour is a trillion kilowatt hours.

Petavat čas je bilion kilovat časova.

A danas se u svetu proizvede oko 25 biliona kilovat časova

And today the world generates about 25 trillion kilowatt hours

of electricity each year.

električne energije godišnje.

Most of that is from fossil-fuel power plants,

Najveći deo toga proizvedu elektrane koristeći fosilna goriva,

and the dominant mindset is that we have to change

a uvreženo je mišljenje da moramo promeniti

the current electricity system

postojeći energetski sistem

by replacing those fossil-fuel plants

tako što ćemo zameniti te elektrane

with clean generation by 2050.

sa onima koje ne zagađuju do 2050.

Well, over one third of our electricity generation is already clean,

Više od trećine proizvedene energije je već čisto,

mostly from hydro and nuclear,

uglavnom iz hidro i nuklearnih,

along with wind and solar,

kao vetro i solarnih elektrana,

and clean generation is growing.

a proizvodnja koja ne zagađuje je u usponu.

Projections based on current policies around the world show

Predviđanja zasnovana na važećim politikama u svetu

that we are on track to have about 25 petawatt hours

pokazuju da smo na putu da proizvedemo oko 25 petavat časova

of clean electricity generation in 2050.

nezagađujuće energije do 2050.

That's two and a half times today's amount of clean generation

To je dva i po puta više čiste energije nego što proizvodimo danas

and equal to today's total generation.

i odgovara trenutnoj ukupnoj proizvodnji.

So this is great.

Tako da je to baš dobro.

We can replace all our fossil fuel plants,

Zamenićemo elektrane na fosilna goriva,

have a clean version of today's world,

imaćemo verziju sveta bez zagađenja,

walk away, we've solved climate change.

rešili smo problem klimatskih promena, idemo dalje.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam najlepše.

Samo, zaboravio sam jedan detaljčić.

Oh, but I did forget one tiny little detail.

We actually need five times that much.

Nama će trebati pet puta više energije.

To be clear, we need and we're on track to have

Dakle, treba nam i na putu smo da proizvedemo

two and a half times today's amount of clean generation

dva i po puta više nezagađujuće energije.

to switch to a clean version of our current electricity system.

da pređemo na čistu verziju električnog sistema bez zagađenja.

But changing the current system isn't enough.

Ali, nije dovoljno samo promeniti postojeći sistem.

We need five times that,

Potrebno nam je pet puta više,

all of it clean,

i da sva bude čista,

or 12 times today's clean electricity production,

ili 12 puta više od trenutne proizvodnje čiste energije,

to actually avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

kako bismo izbegli najgore posledice klimatskih promena.

Can I repeat that?

Mogu li to da ponovim?

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change,

Izbegavanje najgorih posledica zagađenja

podrazumeva uvećanje proizvodnje čiste energije 12 puta.

we have to multiply today's clean electricity production by 12 times.

There are four main reasons we need that much.

Četiri su osnovna razloga zašto će nam trebati toliko.

First, let’s keep in mind scientists’ goalpost for addressing climate change:

Prvo, imajmo na umu ciljeve naučnika za rešavanje klimatskih promena:

achieving net-negative emissions globally by around 2050.

postizanje, do 2050. godine otprilike, neto negativnih globalnih emisija

Most of us know that to do so,

Većina nas zna da je za to

we'll have to electrify a whole range of vehicles,

potrebna elektrifikacija različitih prevoznih sredstava,

heating systems and some industrial processes.

grejnih sistema i pojedinih industrijskih procesa.

Electric equipment is more efficient than fuel-based equipment.

Oprema na struju je efikasnija od opreme na gorivo.

So electrification actually lowers total global energy demand,

Tako da elektrifikacija smanjuje ukupnu svetsku energetsku potražnju,

but it increases electricity generation needed.

ali povećava potrebu za proizvodnjom struje.

In our current energy world,

Trenutno u svetu energetike,

electrifying 60 percent, which is ambitious,

elektrifikacija od 60 posto, što je ambiciozno,

would add enough demand

bi napravila toliku potražnju

that we would need roughly 40 petawatt hours

da bi nam trebalo oko 40 petavat časova

of total electricity generation by 2050.

ukupno proizvedene energije do 2050.

Second, it's not OK to simply replace today's world with a clean version.

Drugo, nije dovoljno samo zameniti postojeći sistem sa nezagađujućim.

In today's world,

U svetu danas,

preko 700 miliona ljudi nema pristup električnoj energiji.

over 700 million people don't have access to electricity.

Billions more have access only to small amounts

Milijarde imaju pristup samo ograničenim količinama

ili nepouzdanim izvorima, pa im struja često nestaje.

or to unreliable supply that often cuts out.

Energy demand in rich industrialized countries will grow more slowly

Energetske potrebe u bogatim, razvijenim zemljama će sporije rasti

over the next few decades with increased efficiency.

u narednim decenijama, a efikasnost se povećavati.

But energy demand in developing countries will continue to grow dramatically,

Dok će se potražnja zemalja u razvoju stalno naglo uvećavati,

pogotovo ukoliko struja bude jeftinija.

especially if we can make electricity cheaper.

This is good.

To je dobra stvar.

Energy access is lifting people out of poverty,

Pristup električnoj energiji smanjuje siromaštvo,

driving access to education,

doprinosi pristupačnom obrazovanju,

commerce, health care and lower birth rates.

trgovini, zdravstvenoj zaštiti i nižem natalitetu.

Both for moral and practical reasons,

Iz etičkih i iz praktičnih razloga

those of us in richer countries need to realize that addressing climate change

mi u bogatijim zemljama moramo da shvatimo da će se rešavanje klimatskih promena

will necessarily center

obavezno zasnivati

on a massive expansion of energy access in developing countries.

na drastičnom proširenju pristupa električnoj energiji u zemljama u razvoju.

So electricity generation will have to grow even more

Tako će proizvodnja struje morati dodatno da poraste

and get cheaper

i da postane jeftinija

to accommodate global economic development.

kako bi omogućila globalni ekonomski razvoj.

Based on projections of global development by 2050,

Na osnovu projekcija globalnog razvoja do 2050. godine,

generation needed rises to 60 petawatt hours per year.

potrebna proizvodnja će narasti na 60 petavat časova godišnje.

The third reason is a bit more debatable,

Treći razlog je otvoren za raspravu,

but it needs to be talked about more in public discourse.

ali o njemu se mora više razgovarati javno.

It has to do with the fact

Radi se o činjenici

that not everything can be electrified by 2050.

da neće biti moguće da se sve elektrifikuje do 2050.

Long-range airplanes, for instance,

Na primer, avionima za duge letove

are still going to need the energy density of a liquid fuel.

će i dalje trebati gustina energije u tečnim gorivima.

Similar for some industrial processes.

Isto važi za neke industrijske procese.

Now, many models waive this issue away with two overoptimistic assumptions:

Mnogi modeli zanemaruju ovaj problem zbog dve optimistične pretpostavke:

that all those factories continue burning fossil fuels but use carbon capture,

da će sve te fabrike nastaviti da koriste fosilna goriva uz hvatanje ugljenika,

što dodatno košta i može se dogoditi samo gde vlasti to nalažu,

which costs extra and will only happen where governments mandate it,

and that all those long-range vehicles use sustainable biofuel,

a da će vozila sa velikim dometom koristiti održiva biogoriva,

which is only sustainable if every supplying country,

koja su održiva isključivo ukoliko svaka zemlja snabdevač

and its local governments,

i njihove lokalne vlasti

fully enforces strict standards for biomass

nalažu primenu strogih standarda za biomasu

to avoid deforestation and other impacts

kako bi izbegli seče šuma i druge posledice

that could increase emissions from agriculture.

koje bi mogle povećati zagađenja iz poljoprivrede.

Some amount of carbon capture at factories and sustainable bioenergy

Deo zarobljenog ugljenika iz fabrika i održiva bioenergija

will absolutely be part of the picture.

će definitivno biti deo rešenja.

But I’ve been in politics,

Ja sam se bavio politikom,

and I am sure that we should plan for imperfect policy.

i ubeđen sam da treba da računamo na nesavršene zakone.

And that means we need to plan

To znači da moramo planirati

for building even more electricity generation.

još veću proizvodnju električne energije.

We can use this additional generation to synthesize fuels

Tu dodatnu proizvodnju možemo upotrebiti za sintetička goriva

that are truly carbon neutral or entirely carbon free:

koja su stvarno karbonski neutralna ili u potpunosti bez ugljenika:

hydrogen, ammonia, synthetic jet fuel and others.

hidrogen, prirodni gas, sintetička goriva za avione i ostalo.

This is a much rougher estimate,

Ovo je dosta grublja procena,

but to be confident of minimizing climate change impacts,

kako bismo bili sigurni da ćemo smanjiti posledice klimatskih promena,

potrebno je da pomerimo cilj na otprilike 90 petavat časova godišnje.

we should aim to push our line up to around 90 petawatt hours per year.

Finally, the fourth reason is that we need not only net-zero

Konačno, četvrti razlog je da nam treba ne samo nulta

but net-negative emissions in 2050.

već neto negativna emisija do 2050.

There will be some non-energy emissions that remain, especially from agriculture.

Ostaće neke emisije nevezane za energiju, naročito iz poljoprivrede.

And we'll have to pull CO2 from the atmosphere

Moraćemo da izvlačimo CO2 iz atmosfere

to make up for those.

kako bismo to nadomestili.

But we also need to use all our possible carbon-removal methods

Moraćemo upotrebiti sve dostupne metode za uklanjanje ugljenika iz vazduha

at their maximum capacity

u punom kapacitetu, svake godine

to remove more CO2 each year,

da uklonimo što više CO2

getting as far as possible into net-negative emissions,

i tako postignemo što veće neto negativne emisije

drawing down levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

i snizimo nivo gasova sa efektom staklene bašte u atmosferi

to eventually restore a stable climate.

kako bismo ponovo uspostavili stabilnu klimu.

One of the carbon-removal methods we’ll have to use is direct air-capture:

Jedan od načina uklanjanja ugljenika je neposredno uklanjanje iz vazduha:

arrays of fans filtering CO2 from the air.

nizovi filtera za hvatanje CO2 iz vazduha.

And doing enough of this to restore safe temperatures within decades,

Uraditi to u meri dovoljnoj da nas vrati na bezbedan nivo temperatura

not centuries,

za par decenija, ne vekova

will require yet more electricity generation.

će zahtevati još veću proizvodnju energije.

Again, the exact amount depends on quite how ambitious we're able to be.

Opet, tačan iznos zavisi od toga koliko budemo ambiciozni.

But for a comfortable rate of carbon removal,

Za zadovoljavajuću stopu uklanjanja ugljenika

we would need perhaps 120 petawatt hours per year total.

biće nam potrebno ukupno 120 petavat sati godišnje.

So roughly five times today's total global electricity system,

Otprilike petostruka trenutna količina u svetskom električnom sistemu,

12 times today's clean electricity production,

a 12 puta više od trenutne proizvodnje čiste energije

and that can actually achieve net-negative emissions globally.

biće nam potrebno za globalnu neto negativnu emisiju.

And there's a bonus reason to consider.

U obzir treba uzeti još jedan razlog.

Because clean electricity is going to power so much

Zato što će čista energija pokretati toliko stvari

of the rest of the transition: electrification, global development,

tokom ostatka tranzicije: elektrifikaciju, globalni razvoj,

synthesized fuels and sequestration,

sintetička goriva i uklanjanje ugljenika,

to achieve net-negative emissions by 2050,

postizanje neto negativne emisije do 2050.

we should really build as much as possible

zahteva izgradnju što veće

of that new electricity generation

proizvodnje električne energije

at the beginning of the transition, starting now.

na početku tranzicije, započevši odmah.

This will make sure that clean electricity is abundant

Tako ćemo biti sigurni da će biti obilje čiste energije

and cheap soon enough

da će uskoro biti jeftina

to still leave time for all of the other transitions that rely on it

i da će ostati dovoljno vremena da se preostale tranzicije oslone na nju

to fully roll out by 2050.

zarad potpunog prelaza do 2050.

And when we talk about abundant and cheap electricity,

Kada govorimo o obilnoj i jeftinoj energiji

we're talking about eliminating poverty faster,

govorimo o bržem suzbijanju siromaštva,

powering access to water desalination,

pristupu procesu desalinizacije,

strengthening medical supply chains,

jačanju zdravstvenog lanca snabdevanja,

so much more.

i toliko toga još.

Decarbonizing and scaling electricity generation

Dekarbonizacija i višestruka proizvodnja električne energije

will also be the biggest global development project ever.

će biti najveći svetski razvojni projekat do sada.

So if we want to avoid the worst of climate change,

Ukoliko želimo da izbegnemo najgore klimatske promene,

we need to discard that dominant mindset

moraćemo da promenimo uvreženi stav

about merely replacing fossil fuel generation.

o pukoj zameni proizvodnje fosilnih goriva.

My point is, that misses the scale.

Poenta je da to ne uzima u obzir obim.

Our project is not changing the current global electricity system.

Naš projekat ne treba da bude izmena postojećeg,

Our project is building a new global electricity system.

već izgradnja novog globalnog električnog sistema.

Political action that tinkers around within the current system

Politički potezi koji se bave izmenama postojećeg sistema

will never get us where we need to be by 2050.

nas neće dovesti na nivo potreban za 2050.

Arguments over which sources of clean electricity we should use are unhelpful.

Prepirati se oko najbolje vrste izvora čiste energije nema svrhe.

We need all of them:

Potrebni su nam svi:

hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, advanced nuclear,

hidro, solarne, vetro, nuklearne, napredne nuklearne,

advanced geothermal,

napredne geotermalne,

mandates for carbon capture on remaining fossil plants.

zakonske stope uklanjanja CO2 za pogone na fosilna goriva.

If you look at the potential rates of addition for each of these,

Ukoliko pogledate moguće dodatne stope za svaku ponaosob,

you'll see we need everything as much as possible

videćete da nam je potrebno sve u što većoj meri

and we may still fall short.

i opet bi nam moglo faliti.

It's not changing the electricity system.

Ne radi se o promeni elektroenergetskog sistema.

It's building a new electricity system.

Radi se o izgradnji novog sistema.

One five times bigger than today's total system

Sistema pet puta većeg od postojećeg

and 100 percent clean.

i koji je 100% čist.

As fellow youth activists often say,

Što bi mlade kolege aktivisti rekli,

the project is much more comparable

projekat pre liči

to the World War II-era manufacturing boom

na procvat proizvodnje u Drugom svetskom ratu

than anything the world has done since.

nego na bilo šta drugo otad.

Building new things that we've barely ever built before,

Izgradnja nikada pre izgrađenih stvari,

in massive amounts, to create a new system entirely.

u ogromnoj razmeri, kako bi se stvorio potpuno novi sistem.

In fact, this mindset goes beyond electricity-generation itself.

Ovaj naum prevazilazi samu proizvodnju energije.

Many people are wary of ambitious climate action

Ljudi nemaju preterano poverenje u ambiciozna rešenja

because they see the project as changing the familiar current world.

jer misle da takav projekat menja svet kakav poznaju.

That's not it.

Stvar nije u tome.

Addressing climate change means building a new world.

Bavljenje klimatskim promenama podrazumeva izgradnju novog sveta.

A world in which energy is healthier,

Sveta gde je energija zdravija,

doesn't pollute the air we breathe

ne zagađuje vazduh koji udišemo,

and where it's cheaper and everyone globally has access to it.

jeftinija i dostupna svima na svetu.

A world with higher incomes,

Sveta sa većim primanjima,

longer and better lives,

dužim, kvalitetnijim životima,

greater equality.

većom jednakošću.

A better world.

Boljeg sveta.

Thank you, and let's make it happen.

Hvala i hajde da to ostvarimo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)