How Much Clean Electricity Do We Really Need? | Solomon Goldstein-Rose | TED Countdown

翻译人员: Gracia Chew 校对人员: Helen Chang

Hello, how is everyone feeling?

大家好，各位感觉如何？

(Cheers)

（掌声）

Are you ready to solve climate change?

你们准备好解决气候变化了吗？

(Cheers)

（掌声）

Good.

好。

Do you know what a pettawat hour is?

你们知道peta瓦时指的是什么吗？

Yeah, it's a unit of energy like kilowatt hour or megawatt hour.

没错，它和千瓦时与兆瓦时一样 是一个能量单位。

I've been a climate activist since age 11

我从11岁开始就致力于 对抗气候变化，

而我曾修读工程专业，

and I studied engineering,

and so I was familiar with those terms.

因此我对这些术语很熟悉：

Kilowatt, megawatt, even gigawatt and terawatt.

千瓦、兆瓦，乃至千兆瓦和太瓦。

But I had never heard of a petawatt hour

但直到我写了一本关于 如何应对气候变化的书，

until I wrote a book on climate change solutions.

才对peta瓦时有所听闻。

That's because it's so big.

因为这个尺度实在是太大了。

But that's the scale I want to talk about.

但它的规模正是我想谈论的。

A petawatt hour is a trillion kilowatt hours.

一peta瓦时等于1万亿千瓦时。

如今全球每年的发电量大约

And today the world generates about 25 trillion kilowatt hours

25万亿千瓦时。

of electricity each year.

Most of that is from fossil-fuel power plants,

这些电力大部分来自化石燃料，

and the dominant mindset is that we have to change

而主导思想是截至2050年

the current electricity system

我们须用清洁能源

by replacing those fossil-fuel plants

代替化石燃料

with clean generation by 2050.

来改变当前的电力系统。

Well, over one third of our electricity generation is already clean,

目前，清洁能源已占 高于全球电产量的三分之一，

mostly from hydro and nuclear,

这其中主要包括氢能、核能、

along with wind and solar,

风力和太阳能，

and clean generation is growing.

而清洁能源的产出正持续提升。

Projections based on current policies around the world show

根据全球目前的电力供应政策，

that we are on track to have about 25 petawatt hours

我们估计在2050年 清洁能源的电力供应

of clean electricity generation in 2050.

将达到25peta瓦时。

That's two and a half times today's amount of clean generation

这是当前清洁能源发电量的2.5倍，

and equal to today's total generation.

相当于与目前的总发电量。

So this is great.

所以这是件好事。

We can replace all our fossil fuel plants,

我们可替代所有的化石燃料发电厂，

have a clean version of today's world,

让地球更干净，再掉头走开，

walk away, we've solved climate change.

就这样解决了气候变化问题。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢大家。

噢，但我忘了一个小细节。

Oh, but I did forget one tiny little detail.

We actually need five times that much.

我们所需的清洁能源发电量 其实是这个数字的5倍。

To be clear, we need and we're on track to have

说得清楚点，我们必须且正在努力

two and a half times today's amount of clean generation

洁净化目前电力系统中

to switch to a clean version of our current electricity system.

现有清洁能源总量两倍半的电量。

But changing the current system isn't enough.

但是改变目前的系统依旧不够。

We need five times that,

必须把目前总电量的 5 倍

all of it clean,

全部洁净化，

or 12 times today's clean electricity production,

等同于目前洁净电量产出的 12 倍，

to actually avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

才能真正避免气候变化 带来的最大冲击。

Can I repeat that?

我能重复一次吗？

To avoid the worst impacts of climate change,

为了避免气候变化带来的最坏影响，

清洁能源的产出 必须是目前的 12 倍。

we have to multiply today's clean electricity production by 12 times.

There are four main reasons we need that much.

需要那么多电能的主因有 4 个：

First, let’s keep in mind scientists’ goalpost for addressing climate change:

首先，让我们铭记科学家为了解决 气候变化问题所设定的目标：

achieving net-negative emissions globally by around 2050.

截至2050年实现全球净负碳排放。

Most of us know that to do so,

大多数人明白想要实现此目标，

we'll have to electrify a whole range of vehicles,

得要全面地电气化汽车、

heating systems and some industrial processes.

供暖系统和部分的工业过程。

Electric equipment is more efficient than fuel-based equipment.

电子设备比燃料设备更高效，

So electrification actually lowers total global energy demand,

因此电气化可以降低全球的能源需求，

but it increases electricity generation needed.

但同时也增加电力需求。

In our current energy world,

在现今的能源世界里，

electrifying 60 percent, which is ambitious,

实现 60% 的电气化 是雄心勃勃的目标，

would add enough demand

这会增加人们的用电需求，

that we would need roughly 40 petawatt hours

以至到了2050年，大约需要

of total electricity generation by 2050.

40peta瓦时的总发电量。

Second, it's not OK to simply replace today's world with a clean version.

其次，只用清洁能源 取代现今世界的用电还不够。

In today's world,

当今

仍有超过7亿人无电可用，

over 700 million people don't have access to electricity.

Billions more have access only to small amounts

有几十亿人只有少量电可用，

或因电源不可靠而常遭遇停电。

or to unreliable supply that often cuts out.

Energy demand in rich industrialized countries will grow more slowly

随着能源效率的提高，未来几十年

over the next few decades with increased efficiency.

富裕发达国家的用电需求增长会减缓，

But energy demand in developing countries will continue to grow dramatically,

可是发展中国家的需求会持续飙升，

尤其是在电费降低以后。

especially if we can make electricity cheaper.

This is good.

这是个好现象。

Energy access is lifting people out of poverty,

用电的普及正帮助人们脱贫，

driving access to education,

让更多人能接受教育、

commerce, health care and lower birth rates.

享有商业机会及医疗保障， 并降低生育率。

Both for moral and practical reasons,

不管是出于道德因素还是实际原因，

those of us in richer countries need to realize that addressing climate change

居住在发达国家的人们需明白， 在应对气候变化问题时，

will necessarily center

势必专注于

on a massive expansion of energy access in developing countries.

推动电力在发展中国家的大规模普及。

So electricity generation will have to grow even more

因此发电量必须加倍增长，

and get cheaper

而电费也势必下降，

to accommodate global economic development.

以迎合全球经济发展。

Based on projections of global development by 2050,

根据2050年全球发展的预测，

generation needed rises to 60 petawatt hours per year.

我们每年需要的发电量 增长至60peta瓦时。

The third reason is a bit more debatable,

第三个原因存在一些争议，

but it needs to be talked about more in public discourse.

但需要更多的公共讨论。

It has to do with the fact

事实是

that not everything can be electrified by 2050.

不是所有的东西 都能赶在2050年前被电力化。

Long-range airplanes, for instance,

例如，远程型飞机

are still going to need the energy density of a liquid fuel.

仍将需极高密度的液体燃料，

Similar for some industrial processes.

部分工业过程也是。

Now, many models waive this issue away with two overoptimistic assumptions:

如今，许多创新模式采用了两个 过于乐观的设想来规避这个问题：

that all those factories continue burning fossil fuels but use carbon capture,

其一，所有相关工厂继续使用化石燃料 但采用碳捕获技术减少碳足迹，

然而其技术会增加成本， 并只会在政府要求时使用。

which costs extra and will only happen where governments mandate it,

and that all those long-range vehicles use sustainable biofuel,

其二，所有远程交通工具 都使用可持续性生物燃料，

which is only sustainable if every supplying country,

但是只有当所有供应国及当地政府

and its local governments,

对生物质全面强加管制

fully enforces strict standards for biomass

以避免森林砍伐和其他

to avoid deforestation and other impacts

能增加农业碳排放的负面影响，

that could increase emissions from agriculture.

这个方法才会可持续。

Some amount of carbon capture at factories and sustainable bioenergy

当然，我们会需要 一定数量的碳捕捉技术

will absolutely be part of the picture.

和可持续生物能源。

But I’ve been in politics,

但我参与过政治，

and I am sure that we should plan for imperfect policy.

而我确信我们应该提前计划 如何应对有缺陷的政策。

And that means we need to plan

这表示我们需计划

for building even more electricity generation.

建设比预计还要多的发电设施。

We can use this additional generation to synthesize fuels

我们可利用额外的电量来合成

真正碳中和或完全无碳的燃料：

that are truly carbon neutral or entirely carbon free:

hydrogen, ammonia, synthetic jet fuel and others.

氢气、氨气、合成喷气燃料等。

This is a much rougher estimate,

这只是一个非常粗糙的预测，

but to be confident of minimizing climate change impacts,

但若想确保能够极力缩小 气候变化带来的冲击，

我们就应致力于将每年的发电量 提升至90peta瓦时左右

we should aim to push our line up to around 90 petawatt hours per year.

Finally, the fourth reason is that we need not only net-zero

最后，我们亟需提升电能供给能力的 第四个原因是：截至2050年，

but net-negative emissions in 2050.

我们不止要实现净零排放， 还需实现净负排放。

There will be some non-energy emissions that remain, especially from agriculture.

现前的部分非能源排放 将持续被某些領域释放，尤其是农业，

And we'll have to pull CO2 from the atmosphere

所以得要吸收大气层中的二氧化碳

to make up for those.

来抵消这一部分的碳排放。

But we also need to use all our possible carbon-removal methods

但是， 我们每年还需要在最大程度上

at their maximum capacity

采用一切可能的途径

to remove more CO2 each year,

去除二氧化碳，

getting as far as possible into net-negative emissions,

尽可能实现净负排放，

drawing down levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

降低大气层的温室气体浓度，

to eventually restore a stable climate.

最终恢复气候的稳定性。

One of the carbon-removal methods we’ll have to use is direct air-capture:

去除二氧化碳的方法之一 就是直接从空气中捕捉，

arrays of fans filtering CO2 from the air.

利用风机把二氧化碳 从空气中过滤出来。

And doing enough of this to restore safe temperatures within decades,

若想做足这类措施以至在 未来几十年内，而不是几百年内，

not centuries,

将温度调回安全范围，

will require yet more electricity generation.

我们就需进一步提高发电量。

Again, the exact amount depends on quite how ambitious we're able to be.

同样的，具体数量赖于 我们能有多大的企图心。

But for a comfortable rate of carbon removal,

但想达到优裕的碳去除率，

we would need perhaps 120 petawatt hours per year total.

我们每年就需大约 120peta瓦时的发电量。

So roughly five times today's total global electricity system,

这是现今全球发电量的5倍

12 times today's clean electricity production,

及当前清洁能源发电量的12倍，

and that can actually achieve net-negative emissions globally.

如果达标，我们就能在 世界范围实现碳净负排放。

And there's a bonus reason to consider.

此外要考虑一个红利原因。

Because clean electricity is going to power so much

因为清洁电能将会驱动

全球绿色转型的一大部分： 电气化、全球发展、

of the rest of the transition: electrification, global development,

synthesized fuels and sequestration,

合成燃料和碳隔离，

to achieve net-negative emissions by 2050,

以截至2050年实现净负排放。

we should really build as much as possible

尽量在转型初期，

of that new electricity generation

也就是现在，

at the beginning of the transition, starting now.

多建设新型电力系统。

This will make sure that clean electricity is abundant

这会确保清洁电力尽早

and cheap soon enough

充足和廉价

to still leave time for all of the other transitions that rely on it

以让其他依靠其电力的 绿色转型有时间

to fully roll out by 2050.

赶至2050年全面展开。

And when we talk about abundant and cheap electricity,

而当我们提及充足廉价的电力，

we're talking about eliminating poverty faster,

我们谈的是更快地消除贫困、

powering access to water desalination,

推动海水淡化的采用、

strengthening medical supply chains,

增强医疗供应链、

so much more.

以及更多数不清的好处。

Decarbonizing and scaling electricity generation

脱碳和壮大发电体系

will also be the biggest global development project ever.

也将会成为有史以来 最大的全球发展项目。

So if we want to avoid the worst of climate change,

因此如我们想避免 气候变化最恶劣的冲击，

we need to discard that dominant mindset

我们必须摒弃那个

about merely replacing fossil fuel generation.

仅仅取代化石燃料的主导思维。

My point is, that misses the scale.

我的观点是，这误解了规模。

Our project is not changing the current global electricity system.

我们的项目不仅是 改变现有的全球电力系统，

Our project is building a new global electricity system.

而是建立一个 新型全球电力系统。

Political action that tinkers around within the current system

在当前体系内摆弄的政治行动

will never get us where we need to be by 2050.

不会让我们赶在2050年前达标。

Arguments over which sources of clean electricity we should use are unhelpful.

争论该使用哪些清洁能源发电 毫无助益。

We need all of them:

我们全部都需要：

hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, advanced nuclear,

水力、太阳能、风能、 核能、先进核能、

advanced geothermal,

先进地热能、

mandates for carbon capture on remaining fossil plants.

对剩余的化石燃料发电站 下达碳捕捉的指令。

If you look at the potential rates of addition for each of these,

若将这些能源的个别发电量加起来，

you'll see we need everything as much as possible

会发现我们需尽可能 多使用一切清洁能源，

and we may still fall short.

但恐怕还是发电量不足。

It's not changing the electricity system.

我们不是要 “改变” 发电系统，

It's building a new electricity system.

而是要 “建立” 新的系统，

One five times bigger than today's total system

一个比现今系统大5倍、

and 100 percent clean.

百分百清洁的系统。

As fellow youth activists often say,

就如年轻活动分子常说的，

the project is much more comparable

在世上有史以来的所有作为中，

to the World War II-era manufacturing boom

与该计划最具可比性的

than anything the world has done since.

是第二次世界大战时代 制造业的崛起。

Building new things that we've barely ever built before,

大量建造我们从未 真正建过的新事物，

in massive amounts, to create a new system entirely.

以打造一个全新的系统。

In fact, this mindset goes beyond electricity-generation itself.

实际上，这观念逾越电力生产本身。

Many people are wary of ambitious climate action

很多人对雄心勃勃的 气候行动怀有戒心，

because they see the project as changing the familiar current world.

认为执行其项目 会改变他们熟悉的现今世界。

That's not it.

并非如此。

Addressing climate change means building a new world.

应对气候变化 代表创建一个新的世界，

A world in which energy is healthier,

一个有更干净、

doesn't pollute the air we breathe

不会污染空气、

and where it's cheaper and everyone globally has access to it.

更便宜，

及人人都有能源可用的世界。

A world with higher incomes,

一个人们收入更高、

longer and better lives,

寿命更长、生活品质更好

greater equality.

及待遇更平等的世界。

A better world.

更美好的世界。

Thank you, and let's make it happen.

谢谢大家，让我们实现这个梦想吧！

(Applause)

（掌声）