The most important century in human history

翻译人员: Justin H 校对人员: Jacky He

What's the most important century in human history?

人类历史上最重要的世纪是哪一个？

Some might argue it’s a period of extensive military campaigning,

有些人可能认为是 大范围军事行动的时期，

like Alexander the Great’s in the 300s BCE,

像亚历山大大帝 在公元前 300 年，

which reshaped political and cultural borders.

重塑了政治和文化边界。

Others might cite the emergence of a major religion,

另一些人可能会举例 主流宗教的兴起，

such as Islam in the 7th century,

像是七世纪的伊斯兰教，

which codified and spread values across such borders.

定义了价值观并传播它越过这些边界。

Or perhaps it’s the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s

又或许是十七世纪的工业革命

that transformed global commerce

改变了全球商业

and redefined humanity's relationship with labor.

并重新定义了人类与劳动力的联系。

Whatever the answer, it seems like any century vying for that top spot

无论答案如何， 似乎任何一个争夺这个位置的世纪

is at a moment of great change—

身处巨变之中——

when the actions of our ancestors shifted humanity’s trajectory

当我们祖先的作为 改变了人类社会的轨迹

for centuries to come.

持续到未来的数个世纪里。

So if this is our metric, is it possible that right now—

因此，如果这是我们的衡量标准， 有没有可能目前——

this century— is the most important one yet?

这个世纪—— 是最重要的一个呢？

The 21st century has already proven to be a period of rapid technological growth.

21 世纪已经被证明是 是一段技术快速发展的时期。

Phones and computers have accelerated the pace of life.

电话和电脑加快了生活的节奏。

And we’re likely on the cusp of developing new transformative technologies,

而我们很可能处在 研发新型变革性技术的节骨眼上，

like advanced artificial intelligence,

像是先进的人工智能，

that could entirely change the way people live.

将彻底改变人类的生活方式。

Meanwhile, many technologies we already have

同时，许多我们已经拥有的技术

contribute to humanity’s unprecedented levels of existential risk—

导致了人类前所未有的生存风险——

that’s the risk of our species going extinct

即我们作为物种灭绝的风险，

or experiencing some kind of disaster that permanently limits

或者经历某种灾难，长远地

humanity’s ability to grow and thrive.

限制人类生存和发展的能力。

The invention of the atomic bomb marked a major rise in existential risk,

原子弹的发明意味着 生存风险大幅上升，

and since then we’ve only increased the odds against us.

而从那时起，我们更 加深了自身所处的危险。

It’s profoundly difficult to estimate the odds

很难去估算出

of an existential collapse occurring this century.

本世纪发生生存崩塌的概率。

Very rough guesses put the risk of existential catastrophe

非常粗略的分析将生存灾难的概率

due to nuclear winter and climate change at around 0.1%,

关系到核冬天和气候变化 定在 0.1% 左右，

with the odds of a pandemic causing the same kind of collapse

而一场疾病大流行 导致类似灾难的概率

at a frightening 3%.

是可怕的 3%。

Given that any of these disasters could mean the end of life as we know it,

由于这些灾难中的任何一个 都意味着我们所理解的生命的终结，

these aren’t exactly small figures,

这些数字不小，

And it’s possible this century could see the rise of new technologies

而且本世纪有可能见证 新技术的崛起

that introduce more existential risks.

带来更多的生存风险。

AI experts have a wide range of estimates regarding

人工智能专家们有一个 大约的估计关于

when artificial general intelligence will emerge,

人工通用智能出现的时间，

but according to some surveys, many believe it could happen this century.

但一些调查显示 ， 许多人认为它可能在本世纪发生。

Currently, we have relatively narrow forms of artificial intelligence,

目前，我们有 定义狭隘的人工智能，

which are designed to do specific tasks like play chess or recognize faces.

它们被设计用来完成特定的任务 如下棋或识别人脸。

Even narrow AIs that do creative work are limited to their singular specialty.

即使是从事创造工作的狭义人工智能也 只限于他们的单个专业。

But artificial general intelligences, or AGIs,

但人工通用智能，即 AGI，

would be able to adapt to and perform any number of tasks,

将能够适应并执行任何项任务，

quickly outpacing their human counterparts.

迅速胜过 他们的人类同行。

There are a huge variety of guesses about what AGI could look like,

有大量的猜测 关于 AGI 可能看起来的样子，

and what it would mean for humanity to share the Earth

以及人类选择与 另一个有意识的实体

with another sentient entity.

共享地球将意味着什么。

AGIs might help us achieve our goals,

AGI 可能会帮助我们 实现我们的目标，

they might regard us as inconsequential,

他们可能认为我们无关紧要，

or, they might see us as an obstacle to swiftly remove.

或者，他们可能把我们看作 需要迅速清除的障碍。

So in terms of existential risk,

因此，在生存风险方面，

it's imperative the values of this new technology align with our own.

这一新技术的价值观必须与 我们的价值观相一致。

This is an incredibly difficult philosophical and engineering challenge

这是一个令人难以置信 哲学和工程方面的困难挑战，

that will require a lot of delicate, thoughtful work.

需要大量精细、周到的工作。

Yet, even if we succeed, AGI could still lead to another complicated outcome.

然而，即使我们成功了，AGI 仍可能 引出另一个复杂的结果。

Let’s imagine an AGI emerges with deep respect for human life

让我们假设一个带着 对人类高度尊重 AGI 的出现

and a desire to solve all humanity’s troubles.

并希望解决 所有人类的麻烦。

But to avoid becoming misaligned,

但为了避免错误观点，

it's been developed to be incredibly rigid about its beliefs.

它被研发成对其信仰无比的僵化。

If these machines became the dominant power on Earth,

如果这些机器成为 成为地球上的主导力量，

their strict values might become hegemonic,

他们严格的价值观可能 成为霸权主义，

locking humanity into one ideology that would be incredibly resistant to change.

将人类锁定在一种意识形态中， 并非常抵触变化。

History has taught us that no matter how enlightened

历史已经告诉我们 无论一种文明

a civilization thinks they are,

认为其多么发达，

they are rarely up to the moral standards of later generations.

他们很少能达到未来的道德标准。

And this kind of value lock in could permanently distort or constrain

而这种价值锁定的方式 可能会永久性地扭曲或限制

humanity’s moral growth.

人类道德观的演化。

There's a ton of uncertainty around AGI,

围绕 AGI 有大量的不确定性，

and it’s profoundly difficult to predict how any existential risks

而且很难预测 任何生存风险会怎么

will play out over the next century.

在下个世纪中体现。

It’s also possible that new, more pressing concerns

也有可能更新、更加紧迫的问题

might render these risks moot.

可能会使这些风险变得微不足道。

But even if we can't definitively say that ours is the most important century,

但是，即使我们无法确定 现在是最重要的世纪，

it still seems like the decisions we make might have a major impact

我们所做的决定多少会对人类未来

on humanity’s future.

产生巨大影响。

So maybe we should all live like the future depends on us—

所以，也许我们该像 未来取决于我们一般生活——

because actually, it just might.

因为也许确实是这样。