The most important century in human history

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

What's the most important century in human history?

人類歷史上最重要的世紀 是哪個世紀？

Some might argue it’s a period of extensive military campaigning,

有些人可能會主張是 大規模軍事征戰的時期，

like Alexander the Great’s in the 300s BCE,

比如西元前三世紀 亞歷山大大帝的征戰，

which reshaped political and cultural borders.

重塑了政治與文化的邊界。

Others might cite the emergence of a major religion,

也有些人可能會說是 重要宗教出現的時期，

such as Islam in the 7th century,

比如第七世紀的伊斯蘭教，

which codified and spread values across such borders.

它所制定和傳播的價值觀， 能跨越這些邊界。

Or perhaps it’s the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s

或者也許是十八世紀的工業革命，

that transformed global commerce

它改變了全球的商業，

and redefined humanity's relationship with labor.

且重新定義了人類和勞務的關係。

Whatever the answer, it seems like any century vying for that top spot

不論答案是什麼，似乎 角逐這個寶座的世紀，

is at a moment of great change—

都是處在大變動時期的世紀——

when the actions of our ancestors shifted humanity’s trajectory

在那些時期，我們祖先的行動

改變了人類接下來幾個世紀的軌道。

for centuries to come.

So if this is our metric, is it possible that right now—

如果這是我們的衡量標準，

有沒有可能，現在——

this century— is the most important one yet?

本世紀——是史上最重要的世紀？

The 21st century has already proven to be a period of rapid technological growth.

二十一世紀已經被證實 是科技快速成長的時期。

Phones and computers have accelerated the pace of life.

手機和電腦加速了生活的步調。

And we’re likely on the cusp of developing new transformative technologies,

且我們可能即將要開發出 能帶來轉型的新科技，

like advanced artificial intelligence,

比如先進的人工智慧，

that could entirely change the way people live.

可能可以完全改變人的生活方式。

Meanwhile, many technologies we already have

同時，我們已經擁有的許多科技

contribute to humanity’s unprecedented levels of existential risk—

則會讓人類面臨 前所未有的滅絕風險——

that’s the risk of our species going extinct

這類風險包括我們這個物種的絕種，

or experiencing some kind of disaster that permanently limits

以及遇到某種災難

永久限制人類成長和繁榮的能力。

humanity’s ability to grow and thrive.

The invention of the atomic bomb marked a major rise in existential risk,

原子彈的發明就讓滅絕風險大增，

and since then we’ve only increased the odds against us.

從那之後，我們只有 讓狀況對我們更不利。

It’s profoundly difficult to estimate the odds

要估計本世紀發生物種 減絕的機率是非常困難的。

of an existential collapse occurring this century.

Very rough guesses put the risk of existential catastrophe

根據非常粗略的猜測， 因為核冬天及氣候變遷

due to nuclear winter and climate change at around 0.1%,

造成滅絕性大災難的機率

大約為 0.1%，

with the odds of a pandemic causing the same kind of collapse

而疫情造成同樣這種滅絕的機率

at a frightening 3%.

是很嚇人的 3%。

Given that any of these disasters could mean the end of life as we know it,

因為任何這些災難都可能 意味著生命就此消失，

these aren’t exactly small figures,

上述的數字一點也不算小。

And it’s possible this century could see the rise of new technologies

有可能在這個世紀會出現

帶來更大滅絕風險的新科技。

that introduce more existential risks.

AI experts have a wide range of estimates regarding

對於通用人工智慧何時會出現，

when artificial general intelligence will emerge,

人工智慧專家有 各式各樣的不同估計，

but according to some surveys, many believe it could happen this century.

但根據一些調查，多數人 相信會在這個世紀發生。

Currently, we have relatively narrow forms of artificial intelligence,

目前，我們的人工智慧 形式算是相對狹隘，

which are designed to do specific tasks like play chess or recognize faces.

它們被設計來做特定的工作 任務，如下棋或臉孔辨識。

Even narrow AIs that do creative work are limited to their singular specialty.

就算是做創意工作的狹隘人工智慧

也受限於單一專長。

But artificial general intelligences, or AGIs,

但通用人工智慧（AGI）

would be able to adapt to and perform any number of tasks,

能夠適應並且執行 任何數量的工作任務，

quickly outpacing their human counterparts.

很快就會超越其人類對手。

There are a huge variety of guesses about what AGI could look like,

對於 AGI 會是什麼樣子， 有各式各樣的猜測，

and what it would mean for humanity to share the Earth

對於人類要和另一種 有感知的實體共享地球

with another sentient entity.

意味著什麼，也有各種看法。

AGIs might help us achieve our goals,

AGI 可能可以協助我們 達成我們的目標，

they might regard us as inconsequential,

它們可能會認為我們舉無輕重，

or, they might see us as an obstacle to swiftly remove.

或者，它們可能會將我們視為 要盡速移除的障礙。

So in terms of existential risk,

所以，就滅絕風險來說，

it's imperative the values of this new technology align with our own.

一定要讓這種新科技的 價值觀和我們的一致。

This is an incredibly difficult philosophical and engineering challenge

這是個超困難的哲學與工程難題，

that will require a lot of delicate, thoughtful work.

會需要投入大量精湛、周道的心力。

Yet, even if we succeed, AGI could still lead to another complicated outcome.

但就算我們成功了，

AGI 仍然有可能帶來 另一種複雜的結果。

Let’s imagine an AGI emerges with deep respect for human life

想像出現了一種對人類生命 抱持深切尊重的 AGI，

and a desire to solve all humanity’s troubles.

且它想要解決所有人類的問題。

But to avoid becoming misaligned,

但為了避免發生不一致，

it's been developed to be incredibly rigid about its beliefs.

它被開發成對於信念非常死板固執。

If these machines became the dominant power on Earth,

如果這些機器成為主宰地球的勢力，

their strict values might become hegemonic,

它們固執的價值觀 可能會變成霸權主義，

locking humanity into one ideology that would be incredibly resistant to change.

把人類鎖在一種非常抗拒 改變的意識形態當中。

History has taught us that no matter how enlightened

歷史告訴我們，不論一個 文明認為它自己有多開明，

a civilization thinks they are,

they are rarely up to the moral standards of later generations.

通常還是不及後世的道德標準。

And this kind of value lock in could permanently distort or constrain

將價值觀這樣鎖住，

可能會永久扭曲或限制 人類的道德成長。

humanity’s moral growth.

There's a ton of uncertainty around AGI,

關於 AGI，還有太多不確定性，

and it’s profoundly difficult to predict how any existential risks

也相當難預測

下一個世紀的任何 滅絕風險會如何發展。

will play out over the next century.

It’s also possible that new, more pressing concerns

也有可能會出現新的、 更迫切的問題，

might render these risks moot.

讓這些風險變得無關緊要。

But even if we can't definitively say that ours is the most important century,

雖然我們無法一口咬定 我們的世紀就是最重要的世紀，

it still seems like the decisions we make might have a major impact

但我們所做的決策似乎仍然

會對人類的未來有重大的影響。

on humanity’s future.

So maybe we should all live like the future depends on us—

所以也許在我們過生活時， 應該要當作未來仰賴我們——

because actually, it just might.

因為實際上真的可能是這樣。