The biggest risks facing cities -- and some solutions | Robert Muggah

119,035 views ・ 2017-11-30

TED


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang
00:12
So, here's a prediction.
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以下是一個預測。
00:15
If we get our cities right,
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如果把我們的城市弄好,
00:17
we just might survive the 21st century.
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我們有可能可以撐過二十一世紀。
00:22
We get them wrong,
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如果沒弄好,
00:24
and we're done for.
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我們就完蛋了。
00:26
Cities are the most extraordinary experiment in social engineering
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在社會工程中,我們人類所能想出
00:29
that we humans have ever come up with.
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最不凡的實驗,就是城市。
00:32
If you live in a city,
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如果你住在城市中,
00:33
and even if you live in a slum --
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即使是在貧民區——
00:35
which 20 percent of the world's urban population does --
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世界都市人口中有 20% 住在貧民區——
00:38
you're likely to be healthier, wealthier, better educated
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比起你的鄉下表親, 你有可能會更健康、
00:41
and live longer than your country cousins.
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更有錢、教育水平更高、更長壽。
00:44
There's a reason why three million people are moving to cities
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每一週都有三百萬人搬入城市,
00:48
every single week.
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必有其因。
00:49
Cities are where the future happens first.
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未來會先發生在城市裡。
00:53
They're open, they're creative, they're dynamic, they're democratic,
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城市是開放的、有創意的、 動態的、民主的,
00:57
they're cosmopolitan,
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它們是世界性的,
00:58
they're sexy.
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它們很迷人。
01:00
They're the perfect antidote to reactionary nationalism.
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它們是反動民族主義的完美解藥。
01:06
But cities have a dark side.
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但城市也有黑暗面。
01:09
They take up just three percent of the world's surface area,
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它們佔據世界表面面積的 3%,
01:12
but they account for more than 75 percent of our energy consumption,
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卻消耗掉 75% 的能源。
01:15
and they emit 80 percent of our greenhouse gases.
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溫室氣體中有 80% 是城市排放的。
01:19
There are hundreds of thousands of people who die in our cities
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在城市中,每年有數十萬人
01:24
every single year from violence,
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死於暴力,
01:25
and millions more who are killed as a result of car accidents
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另外還有數百萬人因為車禍
01:29
and pollution.
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及污染而死。
01:30
In Brazil, where I live,
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我住在巴西,
01:32
we've got 25 of the 50 most homicidal cities on the planet.
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地球上兇殺案最高的 50 個城市, 巴西有 25 個。
01:37
And a quarter of our cities have chronic water shortages --
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四分之一的巴西城市長期缺水,
01:40
and this, in a country with 20 percent of the known water reserves.
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就在這個擁有 20% 的 已知儲水量的國家裡。
01:45
So cities are dual-edged.
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所以,城市是雙刃的。
01:47
Part of the problem is that,
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有一部份的問題是,
01:49
apart from a handful of megacities in the West and the Far East,
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除了西方和遠東的一些 百萬人口大城市之外,
01:52
we don't know that much about the thousands of cities
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我們對於在非洲、南美、亞洲的
01:55
in Africa, in Latin America, in Asia,
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數千個城市沒了解多少,
01:58
where 90 percent of all future population growth is set to take place.
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但未來 90% 的人口成長 會發生在這些地方。
02:03
So why this knowledge gap?
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怎麼會有這知識落差?
02:05
Well, part of the problem
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其中的部份問題是我們仍然
02:06
is that we still see the world through the lens of nation-states.
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用民族國家的角度來看世界。
02:11
We're still locked in a 17th-century paradigm
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我們還被鎖在十七世紀的範式中,
02:15
of parochial national sovereignty.
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教區國家主權的範式中。
02:18
And yet, in the 1600's,
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但,在十七世紀,
02:19
when nation-states were really coming into their own,
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民族國家真正興起,
當時只有不到 1% 的世界人口
02:22
less than one percent of the world's population
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02:24
resided in a city.
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住在城市裡。
02:26
Today, it's 54 percent.
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現今是 54%。
02:28
And by 2050, it will be closer to 70 percent.
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到 2050 年會接近 70%。
02:33
So the world has changed.
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所以,世界改變了。
02:34
We have these 193 nation-states,
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我們有 193 個民族國家,
02:38
but we have easily as many cities that are beginning to rival them
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但輕易就有 193 個城市, 在權力和影響力上
02:41
in power and influence.
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能與它們匹敵。
02:43
Just look at New York.
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看看紐約就知道。
02:44
The Big Apple has 8.5 million people
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大蘋果(紐約)有 850 萬人,
02:47
and an annual budget of 80 billion dollars.
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年度預算為 800 億美元。
02:51
Its GDP is 1.5 trillion,
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它的 GDP 是 1.5 兆美元,
02:53
which puts it higher than Argentina and Australia,
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高於阿根廷、澳洲、
02:57
Nigeria and South Africa.
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奈及利亞、南非。
03:00
Its roughly 40,000 police officers
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它有大約四萬名警力,
03:02
means it has one of the largest police departments in the world,
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也就是說它有世界上最大的警局,
03:05
rivaling all but the largest nation-states.
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不輸給最大的民族國家。
03:09
But cities like New York
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但這樣的城市,像紐約、
03:11
or São Paulo
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或聖保羅、
03:12
or Johannesburg
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或約翰尼斯堡、
03:14
or Dhaka
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或達卡、
03:15
or Shanghai --
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或上海——
03:16
they're punching above their weight economically,
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它們在經濟上的影響力 超過自身的組織規模,
03:18
but below their weight politically.
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在政治上的影響力卻遠遜於後。
03:21
And that's going to have to change.
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這點得要改變才行。
03:23
Cities are going to have to find their political voice
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如果我們想要做出改變,
城市就得要找到它們的政治聲音。
03:25
if we want to change things.
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03:28
Now, I want to talk to you a little bit about the risks
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我想要和各位談一下城市
03:31
that cities are facing --
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所面臨的風險,
03:32
some of the big mega-risks.
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一些巨大風險。
03:33
I'm also going to talk to you briefly about some of the solutions.
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我也打算簡短談一些解決方案。
03:36
I'm going to do this using a big data visualization
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而我要用來視覺化 呈現大量資料的方式,
03:39
that was developed with Carnegie Mellon's CREATE Lab and my institute,
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是由卡內基美隆大學的 CREATE 實驗室和我的學校,
03:42
along with many, many others.
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及許多其他人一同研發的。
03:44
I want you to first imagine the world not as made up of nation-states,
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首先,我想請各位想像, 世界並非由民族國家組成,
03:47
but as made up of cities.
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而是由城市組成。
03:50
What you see here is every single city
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你們在這裡看到的是
03:52
with a population of a quarter million people or more.
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人口高於 25 萬的所有城市。
03:56
Now, without going into technical detail,
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我們就不談技術細節了,
03:58
the redder the circle, the more fragile that city is,
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圓圈越紅的城市就越脆弱,
04:00
and the bluer the circle, the more resilient.
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圓圈越藍的城市適應力越強。
04:03
Fragility occurs when the social contract comes unstuck.
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社會契約失敗時,就會脆弱。
04:07
And what we tend to see is a convergence of multiple kinds of risks:
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而我們傾向於看到多種風險的聚合:
04:11
income inequality,
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收入不平等、
04:12
poverty,
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貧困、
04:14
youth unemployment,
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年輕人失業、
04:15
different issues around violence,
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暴力相關議題、
04:17
even exposure to droughts, cyclones and earthquakes.
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甚至發生乾旱、暴風、 地震的可能性。
04:22
Now obviously, some cities are more fragile than others.
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顯然,有些城市比其他城市更脆弱。
04:26
The good news, if there is any,
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如果有好消息的話,那就是,
04:29
is that fragility is not a permanent condition.
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脆弱不是永久的狀態。
04:31
Some cities that were once the most fragile cities in the world,
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有些城市曾經是 世界上最脆弱的城市,
比如哥倫比亞的波哥大、
04:35
like Bogotá in Colombia
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04:36
or Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,
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或墨西哥的華瑞茲城,
04:38
have now fallen more around the national average.
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它們現在回到了國家平均值上下。
04:41
The bad news is that fragility is deepening,
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壞消息是,脆弱正在加深中,
04:44
especially in those parts of the world that are most vulnerable,
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特別是在世界上最易受傷害的區域,
04:47
in North Africa, the Middle East,
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在北非、中東、
04:49
in South Asia and Central Asia.
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南亞、中亞。
04:51
There, we're seeing fragility rising way beyond scales we've ever seen before.
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在那些地方,脆弱飛升, 是我們從未見過的規模。
04:56
When cities become too fragile they can collapse,
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當城市太脆弱,它們可能會垮掉、
05:00
tip over and fail.
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倒下、失敗。
05:01
And when that happens,
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如果發生了,
05:02
we have explosive forms of migration:
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就會有爆炸性形式的遷移:
05:05
refugees.
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難民。
05:07
There are more than 22 million refugees in the world today,
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現今全世界有超過 2200 萬難民,
05:12
more than at any other time since the second world war.
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是第二次世界大戰之後的最高峰。
05:17
Now, there's not one refugee crisis;
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現在有的,不是「一個」難民危機,
05:19
there are multiple refugee crises.
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而是有多重難民危機。
05:21
And contrary to what you might read in the news,
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和你們在新聞上看到的相反,
絕大多數難民並不是從貧窮的國家
05:24
the vast majority of refugees aren't fleeing from poor countries
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逃到有錢的國家,
05:27
to wealthy countries,
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05:28
they're moving from poor cities into even poorer cities --
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他們是從貧窮城市 移居到更貧窮的城市——
05:31
often, cities nearby.
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通常是附近的城市。
05:33
Every single dot on this map represents an agonizing story
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這張地圖上的每個點都代表
一個掙扎和生存的痛苦故事。
05:38
of struggle and survival.
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05:40
But I want to briefly tell you about what's not on that map,
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但我想要簡短告訴各位, 地圖上看不到的,
05:42
and that's internal displacement.
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就是國內的流離失所。
05:44
There are more than 36 million people who have been internally displaced
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全世界就有 3600 萬
國內流離失所者。
05:48
around the world.
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05:49
These are people living in refugee-like conditions,
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這些人的生活條件像是難民,
05:52
but lacking the equivalent international protection and assistance.
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卻缺乏相等的國際保護和協助。
05:55
And to understand their plight,
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為了說明他們的困境,
05:57
I want to zoom in briefly on Syria.
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我想簡短針對敘利亞來談談。
06:01
Syria suffered one of the worst droughts in its history between 2007 and 2010.
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2007~2010 年間,敘利亞發生了 史上最嚴重的旱災之一。
06:06
More than 75 percent of its agriculture and 85 percent of its livestock
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超過 75% 的農業和 85% 的家畜
06:10
were wiped out.
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徹底報銷了。
06:11
And in the process, over a million people moved into cities
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過程中,有超過百萬人搬到城市中,
06:14
like Aleppo, Damascus and Homs.
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如阿勒坡、大馬士革、霍姆斯。
06:17
As food prices began to rise,
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隨著食物價格開始上漲,
06:19
you also had equivalent levels of social unrest.
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社會不安也會同等上漲。
06:23
And when the regime of President Assad began cracking down,
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當阿薩德總統的政權開始鎮壓,
06:26
you had an explosion of refugees.
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難民人數就爆增。
06:30
You also had over six million internally displaced people,
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國內就有六百萬背井離鄉的人,
06:33
many of whom when on to become refugees.
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當中許多人接著成為難民。
06:35
And they didn't just move to neighboring countries like Jordan
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他們不只是搬到鄰近的國家,
如約旦、黎巴嫰、或土耳其。
06:39
or Lebanon or Turkey.
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06:41
They also moved up north towards Western Europe.
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他們也向北搬到西歐。
06:44
See, over 1.4 million Syrians made the perilous journey
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超過 140 萬敘利亞人 踏上危險之旅,
06:48
through the Mediterranean and up through Turkey
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穿過地中海,北上穿過土耳其,
06:51
to find their way into two countries, primarily:
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找到方法進入兩個主要國家:
06:53
Germany and Sweden.
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德國和瑞典。
06:57
Now, climate change --
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氣候變遷,
06:58
not just drought, but also sea level rise,
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不只是旱災,還有海平面上升,
07:01
is probably one of the most severe existential threats
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可能是城市目前要面對的威脅當中,
07:04
that cities face.
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最嚴重的之一。
07:05
That's because two-thirds of the world's cities are coastal.
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那是因為世界上 三分之二的城市都近海。
07:10
Over 1.5 billion people live in low-lying, flood-prone coastal areas.
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超過 15 億人住在低窪 容易洪水泛濫的沿岸地區。
07:15
What you see here is a map that shows sea level rise
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這張地圖顯示出海平面上升
07:18
in relation to changes in temperature.
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和氣溫改變之間的關係。
07:21
Climate scientists predict that we're going to see
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氣候科學家預測,這個世紀,
07:24
anywhere between three and 30 feet of sea level rise
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海平面就會上升
07:26
this side of the century.
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3~30 英呎。
07:28
And it's not just low island nation-states that are going to suffer --
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並不只有低地勢的 島嶼民族國家會受其害——
07:31
Kiribati or the Maldives or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --
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吉里巴斯共和國、馬爾地夫、 所羅門、斯里蘭卡——
07:35
and they will suffer,
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它們的確會受其害,
07:36
but also massive cities like Dhaka,
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受害的還有大城市,像達卡、
07:39
like Hong Kong,
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像香港、
07:40
like Shanghai.
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像上海。
07:42
Cities of 10, 20, 30 million people or more
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100、200、300 萬或更多人口的城市
07:45
are literally going to be wiped off the face of this earth.
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就會被從地球表面除去。
07:48
They're going to have to adapt, or they're going to die.
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它們得要適應,不然就死路一條。
07:52
I want to take you also all the way over to the West,
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我也想帶各位到西方,
07:55
because this isn't just a problem in Asia or Africa or Latin America,
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因為這並不只是亞洲、 非洲或南美的問題,
07:58
this is a problem also in the West.
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這個問題在西方也會發生。
08:00
This is Miami.
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這是邁阿密。
08:01
Many of you know Miami is one of the wealthiest cities
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許多人知道邁阿密 是美國最有錢的城市之一,
也是最常有洪水的城市之一。
08:04
in the United States;
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08:05
it's also one of the most flood-prone.
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2017 年整年間痛苦經歷的 天然災害就是證據。
08:07
That's been made painfully evident by natural disasters throughout 2017.
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但邁阿密建立在 多孔石灰岩上——沼澤上。
08:10
But Miami is built on porous limestone -- a swamp.
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不可能有任何一種洪水屏障
08:13
There's no way any kind of flood barrier
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能夠防止水滲進來。
08:15
is going to keep the water from seeping in.
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08:17
As we scroll back,
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我們再拉回來,
08:18
and we look across the Caribbean and along the Gulf,
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看看加勒比海和沿海地區,
08:21
we begin to realize
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我們開始了解到,
08:22
that those cities that have suffered worst from natural crises --
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被自然危機摧殘得最嚴重的城市——
太子港、紐奧良、休士頓——
08:25
Port-au-Prince, New Orleans, Houston --
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08:28
as severe and as awful as those situations have been,
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雖然那些情況非常嚴重且駭人,
08:31
they're a dress rehearsal for what's to come.
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它們只是彩排將來會發生的事而已。
08:34
No city is an island.
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沒有城市是孤島。
08:36
Every city is connected to its rural hinterland
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每個城市都和它的鄉村腹地
08:38
in complex ways --
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複雜地連結在一起。
08:40
often, in relation to the production of food.
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通常,連結方式和食物生產有關。
08:42
I want to take you to the northern part of the Amazon, in Rondônia.
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我想帶各位去看 亞馬遜北區的朗多尼亞州。
08:46
This is one of the world's largest terrestrial carbon sinks,
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它是世界最大的地球碳阱之一,
每年會處理上百萬的碳。
08:49
processing millions of carbon every single year.
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08:51
What you see here is a single road over a 30-year period.
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這裡看到的是三十年間唯一的道路。
08:54
On either side you see land being cleared for pasture, for cattle,
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兩側可以看到土地被清空 以用來放牧牛群,
08:58
but also for soy and sugar production.
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也用來生產大豆和糖。
09:00
You're seeing deforestation on a massive scale.
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你們看到的是大規模的森林砍伐。
09:04
The red area here implies a net loss of forest over the last 14 years.
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紅色區域表示過去 十四年間森林的淨損失。
09:09
The blue, if you could see it -- there's not much --
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如果看得到藍色,並不多,
09:12
implies there's been an incremental gain.
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那表示森林有所增加。
09:15
Now, as grim and gloomy as the situation is -- and it is --
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雖然情況的確無情又陰暗,
09:19
there is a little bit of hope.
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還是有一線希望。
09:21
See, the Brazilian government,
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巴西政府,
09:22
from the national to the state to the municipal level,
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全國層級、州層級,到市層級,
09:25
has also introduced a whole range -- a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.
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推行了一系列格狀的公園和保護區。
09:29
And while not perfect, and not always limiting encroachment,
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雖不完美,未必總是能限制住侵蝕,
09:32
they have served to tamp back deforestation.
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它們多少有助於遏制砍伐森林。
09:35
The same applies not just in Brazil but all across the Americas,
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不只在巴西如此,還橫跨整個美洲,
09:39
into the United States, Canada and around the world.
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到美國、加拿大,及全世界。
09:41
So let's talk about solutions.
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所以,咱們來談談解決方案。
09:44
Despite climate denial at the highest levels,
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雖然最高層否認全球暖化,
09:48
cities are taking action.
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城市有在採取行動。
09:50
You know, when the US pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement,
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當美國退出巴黎氣候協議,
09:53
hundreds of cities in the United States and thousands more around the world
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美國數百個城市及世界數千個城市
09:57
doubled down on their climate commitments.
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將它們的氣候承諾加碼了。
10:00
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:06
And when the White House cracked down on so-called "undocumented migrants"
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當白宮取締在庇護城市中所謂的
10:11
in sanctuary cities,
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「無證移民」,
10:12
hundreds of cities and counties and states sat up in defiance
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數百個城市、郡、州都起來反抗,
10:15
and refused to enact that order.
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拒絕執行該法令。
10:17
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:22
So cities are and can take action.
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城市有,並且能夠採取行動。
10:25
But we're going to need to see a lot more of it,
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但我們得要看到 更多城市這麼做才行,
10:28
especially in the global south.
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特別是在南半球。
10:30
You see, parts of Africa and Latin America are urbanizing
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非洲和南美的一些區域在工業化前
10:34
before they industrialize.
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就已經都市化了。
10:35
They're growing at three times the global average
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它們的人口成長
比全球平均高了三倍。
10:38
in terms their population.
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10:40
And this is putting enormous strain on infrastructure and services.
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這樣會讓基礎建設 及服務有很大的負擔。
10:44
Now, there is a golden opportunity.
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現在有個黃金級的機會。
10:48
It's a small opportunity but a golden one: in the next 10 to 20 years,
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這機會不大,但是黃金級的: 在接下來十到二十年,
10:51
to really start designing in principles of resilience into our cities.
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真正開始將恢復力 設計到我們的城市中。
10:55
There's not one single way of doing this,
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沒有單一方法可以做到這一點,
10:57
but there are a number of ways that are emerging.
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但有許多方法正在興起。
11:00
And I've spoken with hundreds of urban planners,
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我已經和數百位都市規劃者、
11:02
development specialists,
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開發專家、
11:04
architects and civic activists,
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建築師、民權運動人士談過。
11:06
and a number of recurring principles keep coming out.
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在這些談話中, 不斷會重覆聽到一些原則。
11:09
I just want to pass on six.
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在此我只想傳遞六項。
11:12
First: cities need a plan
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第一,城市需要計畫
11:15
and a strategy to implement it.
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以及執行計畫的策略。
11:16
I mean, it sounds crazy,
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這聽起來很瘋狂,
11:18
but the vast majority of world cities don't actually have a plan
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但世界上絕大多數的城市
實際上沒有計畫或遠景。
11:21
or a vision.
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它們太忙著處理每天的問題,
11:22
They're too busy putting out daily fires to think ahead strategically.
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沒時間策略性地思考未來。
11:25
I mean, every city wants to be creative,
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2009
每個城市都想要有創意、
11:27
happy, liveable, resilient --
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快樂、適合居住、有恢復力——
11:30
who doesn't?
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誰不想要?
11:31
The challenge is, how do you get there?
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挑戰是,要怎麼做到?
11:33
And urban governance plays a key role.
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都市政府扮演關鍵的角色。
11:35
You could do worse than take a page from the book of Singapore.
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可能你做得比模仿新加坡更糟。
11:38
In 1971, Singapore set a 50-year urban strategy
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1971 年,新加坡定了 一項五十年的策略,
11:42
and renews it every five years.
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每五年就將它更新一次。
11:45
What Singapore teaches us is not just the importance of continuity,
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新加坡不只教我們持續性的重要,
11:48
but also the critical role of autonomy and discretion.
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還有自治和考慮周到的關鍵角色。
11:52
Cities need the power to be able to issue debt,
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城市需要有權力才能發行債券、
11:55
to raise taxes,
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加稅、
11:57
to zone effectively,
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有效分區、
11:58
to build affordable housing.
256
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建立負擔得起的住房。
12:01
What cities need is nothing less than a devolution revolution,
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城市需要的是權力下放的革命,
12:05
and this is going to require renegotiating the terms of the contract
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這就需要重新協商
12:08
with a nation-state.
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和民族國家的合約條款。
12:10
Second:
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第二:
12:12
you've got to go green.
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綠化是必要的。
12:13
Cities are already leading global decarbonization efforts.
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城市已經努力在帶領進行全球減碳。
12:16
They're investing in congestion pricing schemes,
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它們投資擁塞定價法、
12:19
in climate reduction emission targets,
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排放減量的氣候目標、
12:21
in biodiversity, in parks and bikeways and walkways
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生物多樣性、公園、 自行車道、步道、
12:25
and everything in between.
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以及中間的一切。
12:26
There's an extraordinary menu of options they have to choose from.
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它們得從多到嚇死人的選項中選擇。
12:29
One of the great things is,
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其中一件很棒的事是城市已經
12:31
cities are already investing heavily in renewables -- in solar and wind --
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大量投資於可再生的能源—— 太陽能、風力——
12:34
not just in North America, but especially in Western Europe and parts of Asia.
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不只是北美,特別還有 西歐和部份亞洲地區。
世界上現在有超過八千個城市
12:38
There are more than 8,000 cities right now in the world today
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12:41
with solar plants.
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有太陽能發電廠。
12:42
There are 300 cities that have declared complete energy autonomy.
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有三百個城市宣佈 已經完成了能源自主。
12:46
One of my favorite stories comes from Medellín,
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我最喜歡的故事之一,來自麥德林,
12:49
which invested in a municipal hydroelectric plant,
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3133
麥德林投資了一座 該市的水力發電廠,
12:52
which doesn't only service its local needs,
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它不只滿足當地的需求,
12:54
but allows the city to sell excess energy back onto the national grid.
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還讓該市能把多餘的能源 販售回去給全國電力網。
且它並不孤單。
12:58
And it's not alone.
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12:59
There are a thousand other cities just like it.
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還有上千個像這樣的城市。
13:02
Third: invest in integrated and multi-use solutions.
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第三:投資在整合 和多用途的解決方案上。
13:06
The most successful cities are those that are going to invest in solutions
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最成功的城市投資的解決方案
不只解決單一問題,
13:10
that don't solve just one problem, but that solve multiple problems.
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而是解決多個問題。
13:13
Take the case of integrated public transport.
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用整合大眾運輸為例。
13:17
When done well --
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做得好的時候——
13:19
rapid bus transit,
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快速巴士運輸、
13:20
light rail,
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輕軌鐵路、
13:21
bikeways, walkways, boatways --
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自行車道、步道、船道——
13:24
these can dramatically reduce emissions and congestion.
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這些能夠明顯減少排放和擁塞。
13:28
But they can do a lot more than that.
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但它們能做的不只如此。
它們能改善公眾健康。
13:30
They can improve public health.
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13:31
They can reduce dispersion.
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它們能減少分散。
13:33
They can even increase safety.
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它們能增加安全性。
13:36
A great example of this comes from Seoul.
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一個很好的例子是首爾。
13:38
You see, Seoul's population doubled over the last 30 years,
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過去三十年間, 首爾的人口增加一倍,
13:42
but the footprint barely changed.
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2196
但足跡幾乎沒變。
13:44
How?
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怎麼可能?
13:45
Well, 75 percent of Seoul's residents get to work
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75% 的首爾居民去上班的方式,
13:48
using what's been described as
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用的是被稱為
13:50
one of the most extraordinary public transport systems
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世界上最不凡的
大眾交通運輸系統之一。
13:52
in the world.
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1151
13:53
And Seoul used to be car country.
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首爾過去是個汽車國家。
13:56
Next, fourth:
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1438
接著,第四:
13:59
build densely but also sustainably.
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建造要密集但也要永續。
14:03
The death of all cities is the sprawl.
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無計畫地擴展就是城市的死亡,
14:06
Cities need to know how to build resiliently,
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城市得知道如何以 有恢復力的方式來建造,
14:08
but also in a way that's inclusive.
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1791
同時也要能包括一切。
14:11
This is a picture right here of Dallas-Fort Worth.
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3751
這張照片是達拉斯-沃斯堡。
14:14
And what you see is its population also doubled over the last 30 years.
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4314
可以看到,這裡的人口 在過去三十年間增加一倍。
14:19
But as you can see, it spread into edge cities and suburbia
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3130
但也可以看到 人口散佈至邊緣城市及郊區,
14:22
as far as the eye can see.
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1610
肉眼看到的盡是如此。
14:25
Cities need to know when not to build,
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城市得要知道何時不要建造,
14:27
so as not to reproduce urban sprawl
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2331
才不會再重現城市蔓延
14:29
and slums of downward accountability.
313
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1940
和貧民窟的問責制。
14:32
The problem with Dallas-Forth Worth is
314
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1960
達拉斯-沃斯堡的問題是
14:34
just five percent of its residents get to work using public transport -- five.
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4757
只有 5% 的居民搭乘 大眾運輸去上班—— 5%。
14:39
Ninety-five percent use cars,
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1458
95% 開車,
14:40
which partly explains why it's got some of the longest commuting times
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3415
這就是為什麼
它有北美最長通勤時間的部份原因。
14:44
in North America.
318
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1301
14:45
Singapore, by contrast, got it right.
319
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2065
相對的,新加坡就做對了。
14:47
They built vertically
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1167
他們垂直建造,
14:48
and built in affordable housing to boot.
321
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1963
此外還建造了可負擔得起的住房。
14:51
Fifth: steal.
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891989
1843
第五:偷。
14:54
The smartest cities are nicking, pilfering, stealing,
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2617
最聰明的城市會偷,
14:57
left, right and center.
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1160
左偷、右偷、中間偷,
14:58
They don't have time to waste.
325
898812
1484
沒有時間可浪費。
他們今日就需要明日的科技,
15:00
They need tomorrow's technology today,
326
900320
1983
15:02
and they're going to leapfrog to get there.
327
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2005
且他們要超前跳到那裡。
15:04
This is New York,
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1155
這是紐約,
15:05
but it's not just New York that's doing a lot of stealing,
329
905535
2834
但並不是只有紐約常常在偷,
新加坡、首爾、麥德林都偷。
15:08
it's Singapore, it's Seoul, it's Medellín.
330
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2064
15:10
The urban renaissance is only going to be enabled
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2337
若要讓都市復興,
15:12
when cities start borrowing from one another.
332
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2175
城市就要彼此互借。
最後:用全球聯盟的方式做事。
15:15
And finally: work in global coalitions.
333
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2525
15:18
You know, there are more than 200 inner-city coalitions in the world today.
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3640
現今世界上有 超過 200 個內城市聯盟。
15:21
There are more city coalitions
335
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1547
城市聯盟的數目
15:23
than there are coalitions for nation-states.
336
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2334
比民族國家聯盟還多。
15:26
Just take a look at the Global Parliament of Mayors,
337
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2503
看看「全球市長議會」,
15:28
set up by the late Ben Barber,
338
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1449
是已故的班傑明·巴布爾所創立,
15:30
who was driving an urban rights movement.
339
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2041
他過去推動城市權利運動。
15:32
Or consider the C40,
340
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1494
或是想想 C40,
15:33
a marvelous network of cities that has gathered thousands together
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3411
這是個驚人的城市網, 將數千個城市聚集在一起,
15:37
to deliver clean energy.
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1437
來提供乾淨能源。
15:39
Or look at the World Economic Forum,
343
939092
1763
或是看看世界經濟論壇,
15:40
which is developing smart city protocols.
344
940879
1997
它在發展智慧城市協定。
15:42
Or the 100 Resilient Cities initiative,
345
942900
1882
或 100 恢復力城市方案,
15:44
which is leading a resilience revival.
346
944806
2003
它在引領恢復力的重振。
15:47
ICLEI, UCLG, Metropolis --
347
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地方政府永續發展理事會、 城市與地方政府聯盟、大都會——
15:51
these are the movements of the future.
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這些是未來的運動。
15:54
What they all realize is that when cities work together,
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它們通通了解一點,當城市合作時,
15:56
they can amplify their voice,
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就能放大它們的音量,
15:59
not just on the national stage, but on the global stage.
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不只在國家舞台上, 也在世界舞台上。
16:02
And with a voice comes, potentially, a vote --
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有了聲音,就有可能有選票——
16:05
and then maybe even a veto.
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接著,也許甚至有否決權。
16:09
When nation-states default on their national sovereignty,
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當民族國家不履行它們的國家主權,
16:12
cities have to step up.
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城市就得要站出來。
16:14
They can't wait.
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它們不能等待。
16:15
And they don't need to ask for permission.
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且它們不需要尋求許可。
16:17
They can exert their own sovereignty.
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它們行使它們自己的主權。
16:21
They understand that the local and the global
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它們了解,地方和全球已經
16:23
have really, truly come together,
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真正結合在一起了,
16:24
that we live in a global, local world,
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我們住在一個全球的地方性世界,
16:26
and we need to adjust our politics accordingly.
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我們需要相應地調整我們的政治。
16:29
As I travel around the world and meet mayors and civic leaders,
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我環遊世界會見市長和公民領袖,
16:32
I'm amazed by the energy, enthusiasm and effectiveness
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他們帶到工作上的 能量、熱情、和效益
16:35
they bring to their work.
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讓我驚嘆不已。
16:37
They're pragmatists.
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他們是實用主義者。
16:39
They're problem-solvers.
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他們是解決問題的人。
16:40
They're para-diplomats.
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他們是平行外交官。
16:43
And in this moment of extraordinary international uncertainty,
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在這個時刻, 國際上的不確定性很高,
16:47
when our multilateral institutions are paralyzed
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我們的多邊制度都癱瘓了,
16:49
and our nation-states are in retreat,
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我們的民族國家在撤退,
16:51
cities and their leaders are our new 21st-century visionaries.
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城市和其領導人就是我們 新的二十一世紀前瞻者。
16:57
They deserve -- no, they have a right to -- a seat at the table.
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他們應該——不,他們有權—— 取得一席之地。
17:01
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:03
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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