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譯者: 欣潔 李
審譯者: Coco Shen
00:13
So I am here ...
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我來到這裡……
00:15
to recruit you ...
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是要招募各位……
00:17
to the liberation movement.
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參加解放運動。
00:20
Now don't worry, this is not the uniform
that you have to wear.
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別擔心,這不是你們的制服,
00:24
(Laughter)
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( 笑聲 )
00:26
You can come as yourself.
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你想穿什麼都可以。
00:30
So you're probably wondering,
"Well, what are we being liberated from?"
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各位現在大概在想:「所以,是要
把我們從什麼解放出來?」
00:34
We are being liberated
from the endless weight of data.
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我們的解放,是要脫離
無止盡的過往數據。
00:41
It keeps us bound ...
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它將我們束縛住……
00:44
so that we can't move into the future,
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所以我們才無法向未來邁進,
00:47
because we're so busy
being tied to the past.
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因為我們總是被過去綑綁。
00:52
So how do we get free?
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我們要怎麼得到自由?
00:55
The freedom comes from our intuition.
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自由來自我們的直覺。
00:59
The thing that's right here,
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直覺就在這裡。
01:01
you know, that you can't really
quite quantify.
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直覺是不太能量化的。
01:04
Sometimes, you can't
even really describe it.
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有時,甚至無法確切形容它。
01:07
That intuition, that's the thing.
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直覺,
就是你所擁有的擅長的事。
01:10
Now I'm fortunate
to have had a career in marketing,
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我很幸運,
曾經從事行銷相關工作,
01:14
where data and intuition
and creative ideas
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在這個領域,
資料、直覺,以及創意點子
01:19
are sort of intertwined.
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可說是密切相關的。
01:21
But at the beginning of my career,
I had a boss who told me
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但在我的職涯初期,
我老闆告訴我
01:27
that the data was going to be
extraordinarily important
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「如果想讓你的想法成功地被呈現,
01:32
to the success of my ideas.
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數據就是功不可沒的角色。
對吧? 」
01:34
Right?
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將點子套進數據,
01:35
Anchor the idea in the data,
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01:37
you can predict whether or not
it's going to work,
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就可以預測它會不會成功,
01:39
and then you can see
if it actually did work, and vice versa.
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接著就可以確認是否可行,
反之亦然。
01:44
Well, I mean, look, I took that advice.
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嗯……
我當時照著他的建議去做。
01:48
I baked a lot my ideas
right there in the data.
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我參考數據產出許多點子。
01:51
I was inspired, sometimes.
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有時,我會因此而激發出靈感。
且能夠看出某種模式,
01:53
I'd see a pattern of something
moving, and I would say,
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01:55
"Look, I can follow that!
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然後我會說:
「看! 我可以依循那個模式!
01:57
Maybe it'll work."
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或許那會使我成功。」
02:00
But the challenge was
that my ideas stopped right there.
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但難題在於,
我的點子就被侷限在那兒了。
02:04
They didn't really take flight.
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它們沒有起飛。
02:07
Because, you know, the ideas are based
off of electricity, you know?
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因為想法總是靈光一閃,
你知道嗎?
02:12
Ideas, like, come sharp.
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想法總是石破天驚。
02:15
They sprint here, and they go here,
and they move there.
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它們突然出現,然後跳耀,
又隨即轉向。
02:18
They're nonlinear.
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這就是非線性思維。
02:20
I kind of feel like
they're like daydreams.
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我覺得它們就像白日夢。
02:24
You know? Intuition gets you there.
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你知道嗎?
直覺幫助你想像。
02:27
It feels like something
that is just on the horizon.
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讓你更輕易達成目標。
02:31
And then, sometimes,
it comes into sharp focus.
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然而,
有時直覺會使事情變得更加明確。
02:34
You wake up and you remember
exactly what it was.
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當你起床時,
你依然會明確記得那是什麼。
02:37
That's what ideas feel like.
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那就是所謂的點子。
02:40
And your intuition is actually
what helps you get there.
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實際上,
是你的直覺帶你走向成功。
02:44
It takes it from something
that is so practical
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直覺使你從實際的例子,
02:46
to something that is magical.
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發想出奇妙的事情。
02:51
Now, I'm also very, very, very grateful
for a boss I had early on,
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現在,
我十分感謝我之前的老闆,
02:57
who affirmed my intuition.
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相信我的直覺。
02:59
I worked for Spike Lee
at his advertising agency.
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我在史派克李的廣告公司工作。
03:03
This was in the early 2000s.
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它發跡於2000年初期。
03:05
And at the time,
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當時,
03:07
Pepsi had commissioned him
to create a commercial
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百事可樂委託他,
為他們的活動製作廣告,
03:12
for a campaign
that they were trying to run
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這支廣告是為了,
03:16
on the main brand.
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讓他們運用在主品牌上。
03:18
Spike asked everybody in the office
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史派克要求辦公室每個人一起發想,
03:21
to come up with some thoughts
on what the talent could be
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能夠使百事可樂的潛能,
03:24
that would star in the commercial.
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在廣告中被大眾所知。
03:27
And at the time, I was
an assistant account executive.
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當時,
我只是個業務助理。
03:31
There were people who were
much more senior than I,
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公司裡有許多比我資歷更深的前輩們,
03:34
who knew exactly what they were doing,
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他們清楚地知道自己該做什麼,
03:36
who had come up
with a bunch of great ideas.
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他們想了一堆很棒的點子。
03:38
They went to the data.
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他們參考數據。
03:40
They went to the Billboard charts
to look at who was at the top.
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他們參考美國告示牌單曲榜,
以得知誰近期名列前茅。
03:45
They went to album sales
to see who was selling,
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他們還查看專輯銷售量,
以得知誰買榜,
03:48
who the public really loved.
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或誰才是大眾真正喜歡的。
03:51
They looked at lists
that experts had put together.
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他們查看專家們匯總出的名單。
03:54
Who's at the top?
Who's really going to win?
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誰是最頂尖的?
誰真正會贏?
03:57
Who has longevity?
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誰會長久受到大眾歡迎?
03:59
Well, I didn't really understand
any of that data.
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然而,關於任何數據,
我都不清楚。
04:02
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
04:03
I could look at it,
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我也可以查看那些資料,
04:04
but I didn't really
trust myself to interpret it.
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但我沒有,
因為我不相信我自己能夠解讀它。
04:08
So I went to the thing I did know,
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所以我改找我以前就知道的東西,
04:11
which is MTV.
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那便是全球音樂電視台。
04:12
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
04:13
There had been a made-for-TV movie
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有一部為了電視節目而製作的電影,
04:18
called "Carmen: A Hip Hopera," on MTV.
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名為天命真女之卡門,
在MTV上能夠搜尋到。
04:22
I loved it.
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我愛那部電影。
04:23
It starred Beyoncé.
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碧昂絲有出演那部電影。
04:26
Now I thought it was magical,
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直到現在,
我仍認為那是奇蹟,
04:27
because, I mean, who the hell
puts hip-hop and opera together?
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我的意思是,
誰能夠想到將嘻哈音樂與歌劇結合。
04:32
It's fascinating.
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那真的十分有趣。
04:35
So, I put my vote on Beyoncé.
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所以,我便提議邀請碧昂絲。
04:38
Now of course, today,
everybody would be like,
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現今,理所當然的,
每個人都會像這樣,
04:40
"Well, of course, that makes
so much sense, why wouldn't you?
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「當然,那是十分合理的,
你怎麼會不認同?
04:43
Bet on her. Yeah, she's a winner."
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賭在她身上,她就是贏家」
04:46
But at the time, the data
would tell us differently.
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但當時,
我們可能會從那些資料得出不同結論。
04:50
No, there are not a lot of solo artists
that come out of girl groups
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當時並沒有很多歌手,
脫離女子團體單飛,
04:56
and are successful.
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又很成功。
04:58
In my opinion, there is only one.
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在我看來,
只有一個人符合以上條件。
05:00
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
05:01
Diana Ross.
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黛安娜・羅絲
05:03
Yeah, the one.
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是的,她就是那個成功的女歌手。
05:04
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:06
Beyoncé is another.
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碧昂絲則是另外一個。
05:08
So at the time, nobody was betting on her.
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但當時,沒有人願意相信她的潛能。
05:12
But I'm so grateful that Spike ...
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但我很感激史派克......
05:16
affirmed my intuition
and also followed his.
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他認可我的直覺,
並跟隨他的直覺。
05:19
And I would say, today,
that we’re pretty successful.
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今天,我可能會說,
我們真的十分成功。
05:21
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:25
Now, 20 years later,
I still use my intuition, daily.
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現在,20年過去了,
我仍然相信我的直覺,每天。
05:31
I'm the chief marketing
officer at Netflix.
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我現在是網飛的行銷長。
05:34
You'd probably say that maybe
the stakes weren't as high
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你可能會說,
也許當時是因為我只是個業務助理,
05:38
when I was an assistant account executive,
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所以風險才沒那麼大,
05:41
so I could use my intuition,
and who cared.
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因此我才能用我的直覺,
而且誰會在意。
05:44
And maybe today, that's different.
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現在或許不同了。
05:46
It’s not.
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完全不同。
05:48
Every day, I am charged
with looking at campaigns
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每天,我都得負責發想活動,
05:53
that are 15 seconds long,
60 seconds long, 90 seconds long,
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有的時長為15秒,60秒或90秒,
05:58
that will encourage you to watch
something that's much longer.
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那將會促使你去看時長更長的影片。
06:02
Every day.
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每一天。
06:04
And so I have to use
my intuition to understand
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就像是我得用我的直覺來了解,
06:07
whether or not something
is going to make you cry immediately,
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某些影片會不會讓你馬上落淚。
06:11
is it going to make you laugh immediately,
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或者那些影片會不會讓你立刻笑出來,
06:13
is it going to scare you?
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又或是某些影片會不會嚇到你?
06:14
Is it going to inspire you?
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或是否振奮你心?
06:17
And I feel like if I feel that ...
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如果我感受到這些情緒.....
06:21
then perhaps you do too.
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那麼你可能會跟我一樣感同身受。
06:24
Now I'm not the only one.
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如今,
我不是唯一一個做這件工作的人。
06:25
There are other people who do this.
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在這裡,
有許多人跟我一起完成這項任務。
06:28
One is over 100 years ago, Henry Ford.
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其中一位,
就是約略百年前的亨利・福特。
06:34
He's attributed with saying
that if he had asked people,
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他認為如果問人們,
06:39
at the time when he was
inventing the Model T,
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有關於那時,
他研發出的福特T型車,
06:44
if they wanted something like that,
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問他們是否想要有類似的交通工具,
06:48
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
06:49
they would have said
they wanted faster horses ...
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他們反而可能會說,
他們想要更快的馬匹就好......
06:53
instead of this new invention.
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而不是他所研發出的新產品。
06:56
I think that's pretty powerful.
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我認為直覺十分有影響力。
06:58
Or you can look at today.
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或者你可以參考最近發生的事情。
07:00
A more recent example,
Ed Bastian and the team at Delta,
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舉一個近期的例子,
艾德·巴斯蒂安及達美航空團隊,
07:04
you know, based on intuition, I believe,
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你知道的,
根據直覺,我相信,
07:07
decided that after the restrictions
of leaving that middle seat open
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在決定中間座位需閒置後,
07:12
so that those who are flying
would feel safer,
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搭機乘客們搭乘飛機時,
可能會更有安全感,
07:16
with some distance in-between them,
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因為人與人之間都有距離隔開彼此,
07:20
that after those restrictions were lifted,
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當限制被取消後,
07:22
they still kept that middle seat open.
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達美航空依然使中間座位閒置。
07:25
Now I'm sure they were losing
millions of dollars every day
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我敢保證,
他們每天都在損失幾百萬美元,
07:27
with that decision,
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就因為那決定,
07:29
but the intuition was right.
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但這個直覺是對的。
07:31
Do you feel safer? Do I feel safer?
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你感到安全嗎?
我感到安全嗎?
07:34
What would make us feel safer?
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什麼東西會讓我們感到安全?
07:36
I think that's the right thing.
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我認為達美航空的決定是正確的。
07:39
Now look, we can all look at 2020 and 2021
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回過頭來,
看看2020及2021的現況,
07:42
and understand that, oof,
we can't really predict what happens.
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並明白事情總是來的太快,
我們永遠無法準確預測。
07:47
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
07:48
We don't really know.
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我們真的不知道。
07:49
But what we do know is right here.
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但我們所能知的就是當下。
07:53
What are the things
that make us feel good,
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什麼事情讓我們感到美好?
07:56
the things that scare us,
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什麼事情會使我們感到驚嚇?
07:58
the things that make us feel
more connected to each other?
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什麼事情會讓我們感到彼此更靠近了?
08:03
You know, today ...
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你知道嗎?
今天......
08:06
is a gift.
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是個禮物。
08:08
That’s why they call it the present.
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那就是所謂的現在。
08:10
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:11
I didn't make that up,
but it's so corny and I love it.
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我沒有在編故事,
雖然很老套但我很愛。
08:14
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:16
But my addition to it
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我想補充的是
08:18
is the question: "Why would we give
the present back?"
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對於這個問題:
“為什麼我們要將這份禮物返還?”
08:22
Oh, your intuition is a gift.
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噢,你的直覺是份禮物。
08:25
So we have to use it.
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因此我們得妥善運用它。
08:28
So then let's talk about you.
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所以,
讓我們來談談關於你的事吧。
08:30
You have your intuition.
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你擁有你的直覺。
08:32
And we'll use some science in here too.
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且我們同樣會用科學的方法。
08:35
We're not totally against data.
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我們並不會完全不參考數據資料。
08:36
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
08:38
That if you are a set up of molecules, OK?
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假設你是一組細胞組成的分子。
08:44
Every one of us has
a unique pattern, a unique set.
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我們每個人,
都有屬於自己獨特的模式,組合。
08:50
How remarkable is that --
no two of us are the same.
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讓人感到驚訝的是,
我們不會與任何一人是一模一樣的組成。
08:54
So one molecule changes,
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當一個分子改變時,
08:55
and we have a whole other being.
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我們就會得到另一種組合。
08:59
Now if you consider that we take
ourselves as a whole --
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現在我們將所有人視為一個個體。
09:03
let's pretend we're one big molecule,
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假設我們是一個大分子組合,
09:05
and that over there,
the matter over there,
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在這與在那的事物,
09:08
is life and the experiences,
the services, the communities
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是我們的人生,
經驗、服務及社會
09:13
that we serve,
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我們所貢獻的社會,
09:15
and we enter that matter --
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我們深入探討這個大分子的組成,
09:18
it changes.
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他便改變了。
09:20
You step out of the matter, it changes.
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你跨出這個框架,
分子便改變了。
09:24
So of course you're powerful.
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由此可知,
你具有影響力。
09:27
So why wouldn't your intuition,
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所以,
為何不讓你的直覺,
09:29
your own thing that you have,
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任何你所擁有的,
09:30
be powerful?
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也具有影響力呢?
09:33
I think about that all the time.
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我常常都在思考這個問題。
09:36
And perhaps you don't want to take
the big, big swing just yet.
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或許你目前還不想做太大的改變。
09:42
You know, you can take the little steps.
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你知道的,
你可以先從微小的改變開始。
09:45
You can practice.
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你可以練習它。
09:47
I've practiced for a long time.
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我練習了很長一段時間。
09:48
I want to encourage you to practice too.
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我想激勵你一同與我練習。
09:51
So maybe you don't want to,
you know, bet on Beyoncé.
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所以你有可能不想,你知道的,
在碧昂絲身上下賭注。
09:53
(Laughs)
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(笑聲)
09:54
Or maybe you don't want
to create the Model T.
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或你不想研發出福特T型車。
09:57
Maybe you don't want to make
the call about the middle seat.
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也許你不會下向達美航空一樣的決定。
10:00
So let's take it to something
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我們接著用這個論點談論別的事情。
10:02
that may be a little bit easier,
a little closer to home.
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那或許會容易理解一點,
也更一針見血。
10:04
Let's pretend you're curating
a dinner party.
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假設你正在策劃一場派對。
10:07
Going to be safe about it --
we have six people over.
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有六個人會參與這場派對,
且必須考量安全問題。
10:11
And you're considering all the data
around who likes what.
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你開始查資料看大家喜歡吃什麼。
10:15
Right? There's some people who, you know,
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對吧? 這涉及到了很多人,
你知道的,
10:18
maybe somebody is a pescatarian,
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也許有人是魚素主義者,
10:20
another person doesn't eat dairy,
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也許有人不吃奶製品,
10:23
another hates spicy food,
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也許有人不吃辣,
10:25
somebody only likes their food
really, really hot, with heat,
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也許有人喜歡吃熱騰騰還會冒煙的食物,
10:30
and you have to consider all of this.
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你必須考量到這些種種因素。
10:31
Put it all together,
think about what to make.
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綜合這些因素,
思考要怎麼制定菜單。
10:35
I think you'd come up
with a really bland fish dish,
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我猜,
你會想出一頓沒什麼味道的魚肉餐點,
10:39
ugh.
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噢。
10:41
Something terrible.
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有點可怕。
10:43
But if you used yourself as the curator,
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但是,
10:48
as one with intuition --
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如果你是一個運用直覺的策展人,
10:49
think about it, yes,
put in all the data, you know?
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將這些因素結合資料來思考,
你知道的,
10:52
Pescatarian, the spices, all of that.
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魚素主義者,嗜辣者,等等......
10:55
I think you would come up
with something you wanted to eat too.
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我猜,
你會想出你也會喜歡的餐點的。
10:59
You know? Taking all of that
into consideration.
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你知道嗎?
考量到這些種種因素。
11:01
It might be a catfish stew.
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就成了美國南部常見的燉鯰魚。
11:05
Something really delicious,
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這可能十分美味,
11:07
something memorable.
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也可能使人難忘。
11:09
Now there's probably going to be
one person in there who hates it.
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但是,
可能還是會有人討厭這道料理。
11:12
(Laughs)
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1001
(笑聲)
11:13
Guaranteed, there's always one.
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我敢保證,
總是會有這麼一個人。
11:15
But that's OK.
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但那不傷大雅。
11:17
Everybody else will remember that moment,
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其他人將會記住吃這道料理的瞬間,
11:20
remember that experience.
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記住現在的感受。
11:22
It will be something exciting.
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那將會十分扣人心弦。
11:24
So consider that.
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接下來思考這個吧。
11:27
As I think about data
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當我思考數據這部分,
11:29
and how we want to live
and change our world,
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以及我們如何改變這個世界時,
11:36
I'm reminded that sometimes,
data is the pill that we take
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有時,我會注意到,
數據是良藥,
11:42
to calm our insecurity
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以用來安撫我們的不安,
11:45
about what we intuitively know.
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安撫我們憑直覺知曉事情的當下。
11:48
So I’m advocating
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因此我主張,
11:50
that we decrease the dosage of our data.
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我們應該減少參考數據的頻率。
11:56
And that we increase
the implementation of our intuition.
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且增加使用直覺的頻率。
12:00
You’ll feel great,
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你將會感受更好,
12:02
you really will ...
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你將會真的......
12:04
when you're able to prove to yourself
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當你有能力證明自己時,
12:08
that the power of your intuition
is actually accurate.
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你的直覺力將是千真萬確的。
12:14
Thank you so much.
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謝謝。
12:15
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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