Ilissa Ocko: The fastest way to slow climate change now | TED Countdown

翻译人员: chunhua zhang 校对人员: Helen Chang

In the time it took me to walk on stage

就在我登上这个舞台的这段时间

around 10 seconds,

短短十秒钟

more than 10,000 metric tons of climate-warming gases

已经有超过一万公吨的温室气体

have been pumped into the atmosphere from human actions.

通过人类的活动产生 并排放到大气中了

To provide some context on just how much that is,

举个例子来说明一下 这些气体到底有多少

That is the weight equivalent of 170,000 of me

它相当于十七万个我的重量

emitted in gas in 10 seconds.

在十秒的时间所呼出的气体

Ninety-nine percent of this pollution is carbon dioxide, CO2,

这些污染物中99%是二氧化碳

and we know we need to reduce it.

而我们都知道需要去减少它的排放

The other one percent is almost entirely methane,

而余下的1%，几乎全都是甲烷

which mostly comes from producing fossil fuels,

而甲烷几乎都来自 化石燃料的生产过程

managing waste and raising livestock.

以及废物处理和畜牧养殖

But that one percent of methane could cause more warming

但是这1%的甲烷 在往后十年所造成的气候变暖

over the next 10 years than all that CO2.

将超过所有二氧化碳

This is because methane absorbs a lot more energy per unit mass

这是由于甲烷的分子结构

for reasons relating to its molecular structure

以及它在大气中 形成其它温室气体的能力

and its ability to form other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

导致每单位质量的甲烷 能够吸收更多的能量

CO2 is important because it can linger in the atmosphere

降低二氧化碳的排放很重要 因为它在被排放出来后

long after it is emitted,

能够长时间留存在大气中

which means we must achieve net-zero emissions

这就意味着我们必须达到零排放

to eventually stabilize our climate.

才能真正稳定我们的气候

This is key for protecting generations to come.

而这对于保护我们的 子孙后代来说很关键

But with climate change already devastating so many lives today,

但是鉴于气候变化在今天 就已经给很多生物带来了灾难

we can't focus only on the distant future.

所以我们不能只关注遥远的未来

My work as a scientist aims to identify ways

我作为一个科学家 致力于尽快找出

to slow down warming as fast as possible,

减缓全球变暖的方法

so that we can lower the risks of worsening damages in the near future.

这样我们才能降低全球气候 在不久的将来进一步恶化的风险

This is where methane comes in.

这就是为什么要提到甲烷

That one percent of methane may cause more warming

因为这1%的甲烷 在接下来几年所造成的全球变暖

than all that CO2 in the next several years,

可能会超过所有的二氧化碳

but it only lasts in the atmosphere for around a decade.

但它只会在大气中留存十年左右

Methane's warming power is therefore not from the gradual buildup over time

甲烷造成全球变暖的威力 不像二氧化碳那样是经年累月

like CO2,

慢慢形成的

but almost entirely from recent emissions.

而几乎都来自于近期的排放

This means that every time we reduce methane,

这就意味着每一次 我们减少甲烷的排放

we can reduce a lot of warming right away.

就能马上减缓一些全球变暖的步伐

In fact, cutting methane is the single fastest,

事实上，减少甲烷的排放 是单一的最快

most effective opportunity to immediately slow down the rate of warming.

最有效的减缓全球变暖的方法

(Applause)

（掌声）

And this is because not only does methane act fast,

这不仅是因为减少甲烷见效快

but because we can act fast

更是因为我们的行动也能很快

because we have the technologies available right now

因为我们有现成的技术

to cut methane emissions from human activities in half.

可以将人类活动 造成的甲烷排放减少一半

And even better, many of these solutions pay for themselves.

更妙的是，很多解决方案 自身就能从中得到回报

The methane we emit comes from three main sources:

我们的甲烷排放主要有三个来源

energy production,

能源生产

waste management and agriculture.

废物处理和农业

The first category, energy production,

其中第一类，能源生产

is the largest and cheapest opportunity we have

是目前我们最有机会 也是能够花最少的钱

to cut methane today.

去减少甲烷排放的领域

Most methane from energy isn't from burning fossil fuels,

大部分能源领域的甲烷排放 不是来自化石燃料的燃烧

it's from producing fossil fuels.

而是来自化石燃料的生产

Because natural gas, which is mostly methane,

因为天然气大部分都是甲烷

can easily escape into the atmosphere

当我们提取石油、天然气和煤碳

when extracting oil, gas and coal,

以及用管道运输天然气时

or when transporting gas through pipelines.

它能够轻易地逃逸到大气中

In fact, these leaks can completely offset any near-term climate benefits

事实上，这些泄漏可以完全抵消掉 由烧煤改成烧天然气

of using gas instead of coal.

所带来的短期的气候收益

But we have the technologies to cut the majority of these emissions

而我们有这个技术 可以做到不花一分钱

with around half for no net cost

就将主要的甲烷排放减少将近一半

because the saved gas can be sold.

因为可以将节省下来的天然气卖掉

For example, oil fields in West Texas are wasting enough gas right now

例如，德克萨斯州西部的油田 现在所浪费的天然气

to heat more than two million homes.

足够两百万户家庭取暖所用

Fixing the methane problem, though,

尽管解决甲烷排放问题

can be as simple as tightening a valve or placing a gasket or tuning an engine.

可以简单到只是拧紧一只阀门 放置一片密封垫或调整一下引擎

A major reason why these easy fixes haven't been implemented isn't the cost.

但是这些简单的解决方法没有 被执行的主要原因并不是因为成本

It's because governments and industry have been data-deprived,

而是因为政府和行业在数据上的缺失

lacking information on where and how much is emitted.

缺少甲烷排放的地点和数值等信息

But our ability to detect these leaks has rapidly advanced in recent years.

但是我们检测这些泄漏的能力 在最近这些年已经取得快速的发展

Everything from handheld instruments to sensors on aircrafts and drones.

从手持设备到 在航空器和无人机上安装传感器

And now there's a growing universe of satellites

以及现在越来越多的被设计成

designed to locate and measure methane from space.

在太空中定位和测量甲烷的卫星

That list includes MethaneSAT,

其中包括

将于明年发射的MethaneSAT

which is expected to be launch-ready next year

and will be able to detect and quantify methane emissions

它将能够以前所未有的精度

across the globe with unprecedented precision.

检测和量化全球的甲烷排放

If we can find it, we can fix it.

如果我们能检测到泄漏 我们就能对泄漏点进行修补

This part is not rocket science.

这不是一件很复杂的事

It's more like plumbing.

它更像是管道工程

I can't tell you enough how hopeful that makes me for the future.

我无法足够地表达出 我对未来所怀有的希望

We can also reduce a lot of emissions

我们也可以从第二类来源

from the second category, waste management,

即废弃物处理中 大量减少甲烷的排放

where methane is produced as bacteria decompose,

这里的甲烷来自于细菌分解

garbage in landfills and sludge in wastewater.

填埋场里的垃圾 以及废水中的淤泥

Some of the largest landfills receive enough trash per day

有些大的垃圾填埋场 每天接收的垃圾

to fill more than 10 Olympic-sized swimming pools

在被压实之前足够填满

before it is compacted.

十个奥运会标准的游泳池

But we can suck up the methane from landfills

但是我们可以使用导管和真空装置

by using tubes with vacuums

将填埋场的甲烷收集起来

and then use it to generate electricity,

用于发电

because methane is an energy-packed fuel.

因为甲烷是一种充满能量的燃料

We can also reduce emissions by sending some trash, like food waste,

我们还可以通过将某些垃圾 比如餐厨垃圾送到

away from landfills and instead to composting centers

专门用于防止甲烷排放的堆肥中心

that are designed to prevent the release of methane.

而不是填埋场来减少甲烷的排放

The third category, agriculture,

第三类，农业生产

emits the most and remains the hardest to address.

是排放最多也是最难解决的

But there are exciting new technologies on the horizon.

但是已经出现了一些 令人兴奋的新技术

The number one source is livestock.

这里的头号排放源是畜牧业

Some farm animals, like the billion-plus cattle worldwide,

一些家畜 比如全球养殖超十亿头的牛

belch methane that was produced when digesting plants like grass.

在消化草料这样的植物时 会打嗝释放出甲烷

Reducing these emissions is possible with higher-quality feed.

通过使用质量更高的饲料 来减少这部分的排放也是有可能的

And the scientists are developing and testing new technologies,

而科学家们也正在研发和测试新技术

like feed supplements,

比如饲料添加剂

that can suppress methane production in a cow's gut by at least 30 percent

它能将奶牛肠道里 产生的甲烷减少至少30%

with no negative effects on productivity or quality.

而且没有生产力和质量方面的副作用

Livestock manure can also produce methane when concentrated,

畜禽粪便堆积在一起的时候 也会产生甲烷气体

but we can cover manure lagoons

但是我们可以将粪便池覆盖住

and then pump manure into digesters that can capture the methane,

然后将粪肥抽到能够 存储甲烷的沼气池

which can then be used for heat and electricity.

然后将它用于取暖和发电

Another methane source is rice production.

另一个甲烷的来源是水稻种植

This one crop is a staple for half the world's population,

这种庄稼是全球一半人口的主食

but the plants grow in flooded fields

但是这种作物生长在水田

that create ideal conditions for microbes to form methane.

为微生物生产甲烷 创造了理想的环境

We can slash emissions from methane

我们可以通过提高

by improving how we manage the required water,

对水稻种植过种中需水量的管理 来大幅降低甲烷的排放

which can be as simple as maintaining a shallow level of water

这个方法可以简单到 只是将稻田中的水位维持在一个

in the rice fields.

非常浅的位置

Implementing all of these solutions will take work.

实施这些方案都需要做大量的工作

But people have already started to act.

但是人们已经开始行动

Many governments, oil and gas CEOs,

很多政府和油气公司的首席执行官们

landfill operators and farmers are advancing measures to reduce methane.

以及填埋场运营商和农民 已经采取措施去减少甲烷的排放

But we need more,

但是我们还需要做得更多

because there is a lot of warming that we can prevent

因为如果我们能够快速 采用一整套便宜可行的策略

if we quickly deploy the full set of affordable and available strategies.

我们就能更好地阻止全球变暖

We need standalone methane targets

我们需要将独立的甲烷减排目标

as part of every company's business model,

作为每家公司的商业模式

and every country's nationally determined contribution

和每个国家的自主贡献的一部分

as the Paris Agreement is strengthened.

来巩固《巴黎气候协定》

Because if we succeed in a rapid, full-scale effort to cut methane,

因为如果我们能够快速 全面地努力去减少甲烷排放

we have a chance to actually experience the benefits fast,

我们就有机会很快获得回报

in our lifetimes.

在我们有生之年就可以

For example,

例如

my colleagues and I found that we could slow down the rate of warming

我和我的同事发现 我们可以在本世纪中叶之前

by as much as 30 percent before mid-century.

将全球变暖的效率降低30%

This would help communities and ecosystems adapt

这将帮助群落和生态系统适应

to a changing climate

一个变化的气候

and hit the brakes on worsening extreme events,

以及对日益恶化的 极端气候事件踩下刹车

like wildfires in the Americas and Australia,

例如发生在美国和澳大利亚的山火

and flooding in Europe and Asia.

以及发生在欧洲和亚洲的洪灾

It would also help clean up our air, saving lives and crops,

它还能帮助清理空气 挽救生命和农作物

because methane contributes to ozone pollution.

因为甲烷会促进臭氧污染

And because some of the people

而有些最容易

most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

受气候变化影响的人

are on the front lines of methane emissions.

却恰恰要直面甲烷排放

These solutions can also help reduce the inequity of climate change,

这些方案还可以帮助 减少由气候变化带来的不平等

for example, by job creation.

比如创造更多的就业

If we fast-forward to later decades,

如果我们快进到几十年后来看

acting now to cut methane can also help protect Arctic sea ice.

现在的甲烷减排行动 还能够帮助保护北极冰层

This is because when methane reductions are combined with strong actions

这是因为当甲烷的减少 结合强有力的二氧化碳

to cut CO2,

减排行动

it becomes unlikely that temperatures would rise to levels

气温就不太可能上升到

that would trigger a total loss in Arctic summer sea ice.

能导致北极夏季海冰总量减少的程度

This is important not just for polar communities and ecosystems,

这不仅对极地的群落 和生态系统很重要

but actually for the entire world.

同时对整个世界都很重要

I've now been talking for almost 10 minutes,

我已经讲了快十分钟了

which means that more than 700,000 metric tons of climate-warming gases

也就意味着已经有超过 七十万公吨的温室气体

have been pumped into the atmosphere.

被排放到大气中去了

Now that equals the weight of 12 million of me.

也就是一千二百万个我的重量

Of all this pollution,

所有这些污染物中

it is the methane that could warm the Earth the most

甲烷可能是未来十年

over the next 10 years.

让地球温度升高最多的

But we know how to cut these emissions in half right now

但是我们现在已经知道 如何将这些排放减少一半

from energy, waste and agriculture.

从能源、废弃物和农业三个方面

This is the methane moment.

这是甲烷时刻

Because cutting methane is the single fastest,

因为减少甲烷排放是短时间内

most effective opportunity to reduce climate change risks in the near term.

单一的最快最有效的 降低气候变化风险的方法

And cutting CO2,

而减少二氧化碳

which will otherwise build up over time,

则需要更多时间

is the key to reducing risks in the long term.

但也是降低长期风险的关键

We need to do both

我们需要两者兼顾

to plot a safer course for ourselves and our children

去为我们自己和小孩以及子孙后代

and for generations to come.

谋划一个更安全的自然

Thank you so much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）