Ilissa Ocko: The fastest way to slow climate change now | TED Countdown

譯者: Mei Cho 審譯者: Helen Chang

In the time it took me to walk on stage

在我走上台的這十秒內，

around 10 seconds,

more than 10,000 metric tons of climate-warming gases

超過一萬公噸的溫室效應氣體， 因人類活動而排放至大氣中。

have been pumped into the atmosphere from human actions.

To provide some context on just how much that is,

為了讓你們對這數字有概念，

That is the weight equivalent of 170,000 of me

在這十秒內，與 17 萬個我 等重的氣體被排進大氣中。

emitted in gas in 10 seconds.

Ninety-nine percent of this pollution is carbon dioxide, CO2,

99%的空汙是二氧化碳，

and we know we need to reduce it.

而我們知道減碳刻不容緩。

The other one percent is almost entirely methane,

剩下的1%基本是甲烷，

which mostly comes from producing fossil fuels,

主要源自生產化石燃料，

managing waste and raising livestock.

廢物處理及畜牧。

But that one percent of methane could cause more warming

1%的甲烷比全部的CO2， 在後十年中更易造成全球暖化。

over the next 10 years than all that CO2.

This is because methane absorbs a lot more energy per unit mass

因為每單位質量的甲烷吸收許多能量，

for reasons relating to its molecular structure

這與其分子結構，

and its ability to form other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

及能形成大氣中溫室氣體有關。

CO2 is important because it can linger in the atmosphere

CO2的重要在於， 排放後能長存在大氣中，

long after it is emitted,

which means we must achieve net-zero emissions

代表我們必須達到淨零排， 才能使氣候穩定。

to eventually stabilize our climate.

This is key for protecting generations to come.

這是保護後代的關鍵。

But with climate change already devastating so many lives today,

在氣候變遷摧毀諸多生命的現在，

we can't focus only on the distant future.

我們不能只著眼遙遠的未來。

My work as a scientist aims to identify ways

我是名科學家， 致力找到盡快減緩暖化的方法，

to slow down warming as fast as possible,

so that we can lower the risks of worsening damages in the near future.

如此我們不久後就能降低惡化的風險。

This is where methane comes in.

現在說說甲烷。

That one percent of methane may cause more warming

接下來數年， 1%的甲烷比全部CO2產更多得熱。

than all that CO2 in the next several years,

but it only lasts in the atmosphere for around a decade.

但它只存於大氣中約十年。

Methane's warming power is therefore not from the gradual buildup over time

甲烷不像CO2隨著時間升溫，

like CO2,

but almost entirely from recent emissions.

幾乎是因為近期的排放。

This means that every time we reduce methane,

代表每次的甲烷減排，

we can reduce a lot of warming right away.

等同即刻降低暖化。

In fact, cutting methane is the single fastest,

事實上，減少甲烷是唯一快速，

most effective opportunity to immediately slow down the rate of warming.

且有效的方式來立即降低暖化速度。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

And this is because not only does methane act fast,

不僅因為甲烷變動快，

but because we can act fast

更因為我們行動迅捷，

because we have the technologies available right now

有賴如今掌握的技術，

to cut methane emissions from human activities in half.

我們能將人類活動釋放的甲烷減半。

And even better, many of these solutions pay for themselves.

好消息是，當中許多辦法 能自行吸收所需的費用。

The methane we emit comes from three main sources:

我們排放的甲烷有三種主要來源：

energy production,

生產能量，

waste management and agriculture.

廢物處理及農業。

The first category, energy production,

第一類是能源生產，

is the largest and cheapest opportunity we have

是當今減甲烷最廣，且最便宜的項目。

to cut methane today.

Most methane from energy isn't from burning fossil fuels,

能源造成的甲烷基本不因燒石油，

it's from producing fossil fuels.

而是因為生產石油。

Because natural gas, which is mostly methane,

因為天然氣成分多為甲烷，

can easily escape into the atmosphere

它容易竄入大氣中，

when extracting oil, gas and coal,

在開採石油、天然氣或煤炭時，

or when transporting gas through pipelines.

或是經管道輸送天然氣時。

In fact, these leaks can completely offset any near-term climate benefits

事實是，這些外洩輕易抵銷了 近期的氣候效益，

of using gas instead of coal.

也就是用天然氣取代煤炭。

But we have the technologies to cut the majority of these emissions

但我們的技術能大量減少排放，

with around half for no net cost

淨成本為零就能減排近半，

because the saved gas can be sold.

因為能夠出售所省下的天然氣。

For example, oil fields in West Texas are wasting enough gas right now

例如現在德州西部浪費的天然氣量，

to heat more than two million homes.

就足夠給兩百戶供暖。

Fixing the methane problem, though,

解決甲烷的辦法

can be as simple as tightening a valve or placing a gasket or tuning an engine.

簡單如擰閥門、放墊圈或啟動引擎。

A major reason why these easy fixes haven't been implemented isn't the cost.

尚未實施這些簡單修復措施的 主因之一並不是成本，

It's because governments and industry have been data-deprived,

而是政府及企業缺乏數據，

lacking information on where and how much is emitted.

他們缺少排放地及數量的資訊。

But our ability to detect these leaks has rapidly advanced in recent years.

但近年檢測外洩的技術突飛猛進。

Everything from handheld instruments to sensors on aircrafts and drones.

從手提的到飛機或無人機搭載檢測器。

And now there's a growing universe of satellites

如今有越來越多的衛星

designed to locate and measure methane from space.

能定位及測量太空中的甲烷。

That list includes MethaneSAT,

當中包括甲烷衛星

which is expected to be launch-ready next year

預計明年發射，

and will be able to detect and quantify methane emissions

屆時能觀測全球甲烷排放量，

across the globe with unprecedented precision.

而且數據精準。

If we can find it, we can fix it.

要先定位，才能改進。

This part is not rocket science.

這無關複雜的科學， 更像弄水管那樣簡單。

It's more like plumbing.

I can't tell you enough how hopeful that makes me for the future.

我對未來的期望無以言表。

We can also reduce a lot of emissions

第二項的廢物處理也能大減排。

from the second category, waste management,

where methane is produced as bacteria decompose,

生物腐爛會產生甲烷，

garbage in landfills and sludge in wastewater.

掩埋的垃圾及汙水沉積物也會。

Some of the largest landfills receive enough trash per day

一些大型垃圾掩埋場一天的垃圾量，

to fill more than 10 Olympic-sized swimming pools

未壓縮時足以填滿10多座奧運泳池。

before it is compacted.

But we can suck up the methane from landfills

但我們能用真空管在掩埋場吸甲烷，

by using tubes with vacuums

and then use it to generate electricity,

然後把它用來發電，

because methane is an energy-packed fuel.

因為甲烷是飽含能量的燃料。

We can also reduce emissions by sending some trash, like food waste,

把掩埋場的廚餘運走也能減排，

away from landfills and instead to composting centers

送到防甲烷釋放的堆肥中心。

that are designed to prevent the release of methane.

The third category, agriculture,

第三項是農業，

emits the most and remains the hardest to address.

這項排最多也最難解決。

But there are exciting new technologies on the horizon.

但振奮人心的新技術即將問世。

The number one source is livestock.

家畜排放最多甲烷。

Some farm animals, like the billion-plus cattle worldwide,

有些家畜，例如全球數十億頭的牛，

belch methane that was produced when digesting plants like grass.

當牠們消化草等植物時會排放甲烷。

Reducing these emissions is possible with higher-quality feed.

餵養優質飼料能減少排放量。

And the scientists are developing and testing new technologies,

目前科學家正在開發並測試新技術，

like feed supplements,

例如飼料添加劑，

that can suppress methane production in a cow's gut by at least 30 percent

這能抑制牛腸道至少30%的甲烷量，

with no negative effects on productivity or quality.

且對產量跟品質都無害。

Livestock manure can also produce methane when concentrated,

牲畜糞便濃集時也會產生甲烷，

but we can cover manure lagoons

但可以覆蓋沼液糞便，

and then pump manure into digesters that can capture the methane,

泵入甲烷消化池，

which can then be used for heat and electricity.

最後可用來供暖及發電。

Another methane source is rice production.

種水稻也會產生甲烷。

This one crop is a staple for half the world's population,

全球半數人口以此為糧，

but the plants grow in flooded fields

但稻只能種在水田中，

that create ideal conditions for microbes to form methane.

這種環境很適合微生物形成甲烷。

We can slash emissions from methane

減少甲烷排放的方法是，

by improving how we manage the required water,

改善供水管理，

which can be as simple as maintaining a shallow level of water

簡單來說就是，水稻田保持淺水位。

in the rice fields.

Implementing all of these solutions will take work.

這些解決之道費心費力。

But people have already started to act.

但人們已經著手進行。

Many governments, oil and gas CEOs,

許多政府，石油及天然氣公司總裁，

landfill operators and farmers are advancing measures to reduce methane.

掩埋場及農民都採取措施以減少甲烷。

But we need more,

但這還不夠，

because there is a lot of warming that we can prevent

因為許多暖化結果是可避免的，

if we quickly deploy the full set of affordable and available strategies.

只要佈署周詳可行的策略。

We need standalone methane targets

獨立甲烷目標

as part of every company's business model,

要併入公司運營模組，

and every country's nationally determined contribution

因巴黎協定強化，各國限制甲烷排量。

as the Paris Agreement is strengthened.

Because if we succeed in a rapid, full-scale effort to cut methane,

只要在甲烷減排行動上迅捷全面，

we have a chance to actually experience the benefits fast,

在我們有生之年， 我們就能體驗此舉帶來的好處。

in our lifetimes.

For example,

舉例來說，

my colleagues and I found that we could slow down the rate of warming

我跟我的同事認為能抑制暖化速度，

by as much as 30 percent before mid-century.

在世紀中前減緩30%。

This would help communities and ecosystems adapt

這有助社群及生態系統適應氣候變遷。

to a changing climate

and hit the brakes on worsening extreme events,

並遏制惡化的極端事件，

like wildfires in the Americas and Australia,

像是美國及澳洲的野火，

and flooding in Europe and Asia.

歐洲及亞洲的水災。

It would also help clean up our air, saving lives and crops,

同時有助淨化空氣，拯救生命及農作。

because methane contributes to ozone pollution.

因甲烷會導致臭氧汙染。

And because some of the people

且因為部分易受氣候變遷影響的人

most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

are on the front lines of methane emissions.

是直面甲烷排放的。

These solutions can also help reduce the inequity of climate change,

這些方案還能減少 氣候變遷導致的不平等。

for example, by job creation.

創造工作機會就是一例。

If we fast-forward to later decades,

假設我們快轉到數十年後，

acting now to cut methane can also help protect Arctic sea ice.

現在開始減少甲烷有助保護北極冰海。

This is because when methane reductions are combined with strong actions

藉由積極減少甲烷及CO2的行動，

to cut CO2,

it becomes unlikely that temperatures would rise to levels

溫度就不太會升到高溫，

that would trigger a total loss in Arctic summer sea ice.

因高溫會使夏季北極海冰消失。

This is important not just for polar communities and ecosystems,

這不僅對極地社群及生態至關重要，

but actually for the entire world.

對全球也是舉足輕重的。

I've now been talking for almost 10 minutes,

我已經演講近十分鐘了，

which means that more than 700,000 metric tons of climate-warming gases

代表超過七萬公噸的氣候變遷氣體

have been pumped into the atmosphere.

已經發散到大氣中了。

Now that equals the weight of 12 million of me.

這是我體重的一千兩百萬倍。

Of all this pollution,

所有汙染源中，

it is the methane that could warm the Earth the most

甲烷是接下來十年中 最易使地球升溫的。

over the next 10 years.

But we know how to cut these emissions in half right now

但如今我們已知如何將排放量減半，

from energy, waste and agriculture.

即自能源、廢物及農業上著手。

This is the methane moment.

此時是甲烷時刻。

Because cutting methane is the single fastest,

因減少甲烷是最快、

most effective opportunity to reduce climate change risks in the near term.

最有效消彌眼前氣候變遷風險的方法。

And cutting CO2,

而減少二氧化碳，

which will otherwise build up over time,

這是項長期抗戰，

is the key to reducing risks in the long term.

是減少長遠風險的癥結。

We need to do both

兩者都得兼顧，

to plot a safer course for ourselves and our children

使自己、子女及後代生活地更安全。

and for generations to come.

Thank you so much.

十分感謝各位。

(Applause)

［掌聲]