War in Ukraine -- and What It Means for the World Order | Ian Bremmer | TED

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Grace Man

Bruno Giussani: It's difficult to think clearly

布鲁诺·吉桑尼 (Bruno Giussani)：

of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

很难弄清楚 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的意义，

because wars, while they unfold,

因为战争开始后，

they're kind of shrouded in a sort of fog.

它们就像被掩盖在了一层薄雾中。

Information is abundant:

充斥着大量的信息：

the millions of refugees,

数百万的难民，

the shocking suffering and the destruction, the politics.

灾难和毁坏，以及政治问题。

But sense is lacking.

但缺乏理性。

And that's going to be the focus of this Membership conversation

由于战争已经进行三周了，

as we enter the third week of the war.

这也是本次会员对话的重点。

We won’t talk about the events of the day

我们不讨论日常的事件，

but try to project a longer arc, a broader context.

而是着眼于更广泛的概念， 更广阔的背景。

Our guest is geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer.

今天的来宾是地缘政治分析家 伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)。

He's the founder and president of Eurasia Group,

他是亚欧集团的创始人和主席，

and we asked him to lay the scene

我们想先请他来描述下

by talking first about the geopolitical shifts

已经由乌克兰战争带来的

that have already been brought by the war in Ukraine.

地缘政治变化情景。

And after, we're going to have a conversation,

然后，我们将展开对话，

including questions from TED Members who are participating in this call.

包括回答参与此会议的TED成员 所提出的问题。

Ian, welcome.

伊恩，欢迎你。

Ian Bremmer: Thank you very much.

谢谢！

I'll start by saying that in my lifetime,

首先，我要说，在我的人生中

the most important geopolitical artifact is the fall of the Berlin Wall.

最重要的地缘政治事件是 柏林墙的倒塌。

I mean, you see it

你能看见它，

if you go into the new NATO headquarters in Brussels,

如果你前往位于 布鲁塞尔的新北约总部的话，

just built a few years ago.

就在几年前建造完成。

And anyone that has a piece, something they're very proud of,

并且任何人有一块碎片， 他们都会非常骄傲，

they know it affected their entire lives.

他们知道这件事 影响了自己的整个人生。

I think that in 30 years' time,

我想，在这 30 年里，

and I fear that in 30 years' time,

我担心在 30 年后，

if we look back,

如果我们回顾过去，

a second most important geopolitical artifact

第二大重要的地缘政治产物

will be a piece of the rubble of the Maidan in Kyiv.

是基辅自由广场的一块瓦砾。

I believe that the war that we are seeing right now

我认为我们现在 正在见证的这场战争,

is no more and no less

不多也不少,

than the end of the peace dividend

是 1989 年柏林墙倒塌时

that we all thought we had

我们以为我们所拥有的

when the wall came down in 1989.

和平红利的结束。

The idea that the world could focus more on globalization

人们以为世界会越来越更强调全球化

and goods and services and people and ideas

和产品、服务、人才和想法

going faster and faster across borders,

将跨越国界流通越来越快，

leading to unprecedented growth in human development

引致人类发展的空前增长

and a global middle class.

并拥有一个全球性的中产阶级。

I think that this is a tipping point.

我认为这是一个转折点。

Won't end globalization,

全球化没有因此终止，

but it does end the peace dividend.

但和平的红利确实终止了。

It does mean that the Europeans overnight

这的确意味着欧洲人一夜之间

will and must prioritize spending on defense policy,

将必须优先考虑国防政策、

on national security, coordination, on NATO.

国家安全、与北约的协调上的支出。

And the speech that was given by Olaf Scholz,

还有两周前新任财政大臣

the new chancellor, two weeks ago,

奥拉夫·肖尔茨(Olaf Scholz) 的演讲，

in my view, the most significant speech given by a European leader

在我看来， 是欧洲领导人在后冷战时代

in the post-Cold War environment,

发表的最重要的演讲，

precisely because it's now the post-post-Cold War environment,

准确的说现在是后后冷战环境，

sending weapons to the Ukrainians,

送武器给乌克兰人，

committing to over two percent of GDP spend on defense,

承诺国防开支 将占GDP的 2% 以上，

investing in a new fund for defense infrastructure.

投入新的资金用于国防设施。

But also recognizing that the way

但也得承认的是，

that the Germans and the Europeans as a whole

德国人和欧洲人作为一个整体

looked at the world and looked at themselves was,

看待世界和他们自己的方式，

unfortunately for all of us, outdated.

不幸的是，这已经非常过时。

A few other points I'd like to raise, just to kick off this conversation.

我想提一些其他观点， 来开始我们这个话题。

One:

第一：

One of the reasons I'm pretty negative about this,

我对此非常悲观的一个理由，

and I'm not usually very negative, I'm usually an existential optimist,

而我通常并不是个悲观的人， 我是个存在主义乐观主义者，

I’m someone that’s just happy there’s water in the glass.

我是那种有水在杯子里就开心的人。

But when I look at this conflict, I’m much more concerned.

但当我看着这场冲突， 我感到非常担忧。

And that is because I do not see a scenario,

因为我认为，

a plausible scenario, in the foreseeable future

在可预见的未来，

where Putin emerges from this war

普京在这场战争中所处的地位

in anything less than a radically weakened position

与他宣布入侵之前相比，

compared to where he was before he announced the invasion.

没有任何明显的削弱。

And I believe that both in terms of his domestic political orientation,

我相信，在他的国内政治倾向方面，

how stable he is in his own country,

他在自己国家的稳定程度，

also, of course, Russia's economic position,

当然，还有俄罗斯的经济地位，

and finally, Russia's position in terms of global security

以及俄罗斯在全球安全

and European security:

和欧洲安全方面的地位：

ostensibly, the very reason that Putin began the war to begin with.

表面上，这是普京发动战争的原因。

Second big point is that the decoupling that we are seeing from Europe

第二个重要的点是， 在我看来，欧洲和美国

and the United States with Russia is, in my view, permanent.

与俄罗斯的脱钩是永久性的。

And that would be true even if there were a negotiated settlement

即使通过谈判达成协议， 所有俄罗斯军队

and all the Russian troops were to pull out of Ukraine

撤出乌克兰，我们重新拥有和平，

and we had peace.

脱钩这也是真的。

I still think that a lot of those companies would not come back

我仍然认为只要普京掌权，

with Putin in power.

很多公司就不会回来。

I'm convinced that the decisions by the Europeans

我确定欧洲人做出

to ramp up their national security capabilities will be permanent.

提升他们国家安全能力的决定 是永久的。

Permanent deployments coming in the Baltic states, for example,

例如，波罗的海国家的永久部署，

forward deployments in Poland and Bulgaria and Romania.

在波兰、保加利亚和 罗马尼亚的前沿部署。

And also an unwind of Europe’s massive energy dependence:

同时也摆脱 欧洲对俄罗斯能源的依赖，

coal, oil and most importantly, gas

包括：煤炭、石油，最重要的是，

on Russia.

天然气。

That does not make Russia a global pariah

这并不会让俄罗斯成为全球的弃儿，

because you can't be a global pariah

因为你不可能成为全球的弃儿，

if the soon-to-be most important economy in the world, China,

如果很快就将成为全球 最重要的经济体，中国，

is actually your bestie on the global stage,

是你在国际舞台上的最好闺蜜的话，

and that indeed continues to be true

这点确实会继续成为事实，

despite China's efforts to portray themselves,

尽管中国至少在努力朝欧洲

towards Europe at least,

塑造自己的

as more neutral.

中立形象。

We are going to see the Russians as a supplicant economically,

我们会看到俄罗斯 将成为一个经济乞求者，

in terms of energy flows,

在能源流动、

financially, in terms of transactions,

经济、交易

and technologically, perhaps most important,

和技术方面，也许更重要的是，

aligned with China.

在与中国的结盟上。

That has big geopolitical implications long-term.

这在长期对地缘政治有很大的影响。

Also, a lot of other developing economies, like the Indians,

还有，很多其他发展中经济体， 如印度、

like the Gulf states, like Brazil,

海湾国家、巴西等，

are also not going to work with Russia as a pariah.

也不会把俄罗斯当作弃儿。

They'll continue to engage.

它们将继续与之互动。

Are there any silver linings?

还有一线希望吗？

And I think there are a few.

我认为有一些。

Of course, there is a much greater renewed purpose and mission of NATO.

当然，北约还有一个更大的 新目标和使命。

I mean, this is an organization that just a couple of years ago,

毕竟，这个组织在 10 多年前

France President Emmanuel Macron referred to as “brain-dead.”

被法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙 (Emmanuel Macron)称为“脑死亡。”

It was increasingly drifting in terms of its importance.

它的重要性越来越不确定。

The Americans were focusing much more on Asia, the pivot.

美国人更关注亚洲，转向亚洲。

Not today.

不是今天。

Today, NATO is purposeful,

今天，北约是有目的的。

it's aligned, it's consolidated.

它是结盟的，它是统一的。

it's going to get more resources, not less.

它应该得到更多的资源，而非更少。

That's also true of the European Union as a whole,

这对于欧盟作为整体也是一样，

even when we talk about countries like Hungary and Poland

甚至当我们谈论像匈牙利和波兰这些

that have been much less aligned in terms of rule of law,

在法治方面、在司法独立方面

in terms of an independent judiciary,

并不那么一致的国家时也是如此，

much more aligned in terms of the importance

与我们看到的莫斯科相比，

of common values of Europe

它们在欧洲共同价值观的

compared to that of what we're seeing in Moscow.

重要性方面更加一致。

I mentioned the German security and policy shift.

我提到欧洲安全和政策转变。

The UK-EU relationship is much smoother and more functional

自英国脱欧进程开始以来， 英国与欧盟的关系

than at any point since Brexit process actually started.

会比以往任何时候 都更加顺畅和有效。

And even the United States.

即便是美国，

I mean, if you watched the State of the Union

如果你看一小段时间的国情咨文，

for a brief moment in time, five or 10 minutes,

五到十分钟，

when all of the Democrats and Republicans were standing and applauding together,

所有的民主党人和共和党人 都站在一起鼓掌，

you could be forgiven for believing that the United States

你认为美国的民主是 功能性的代议制民主

had a functional representative democracy.

的想法都会被原谅。

Now I'm not sure how long this is going to last,

我不知道这将持续多久，

but at least as of now,

但至少现在，

leaders of the Democratic and Republican Party

民主党和共和党领袖

see Putin as much more of a threat, an enemy,

将普京视作威胁、敌人，

than they do their opponents across the aisle in domestic politics.

而不是国内政治中的对手。

And two weeks ago, that was not true.

两周前，这还不是事实。

That's significant.

这些很明显。

Final silver lining, and I wish it was more of one,

最后一线希望， 我希望不止一线希望，

but the Chinese,

但中国，

as much as they are strategically aligned with Russia

就像它们与俄罗斯和普京总统个人

and with the person of President Putin,

是战略联盟一样，

they do not want a second Cold War.

它们不想要第二场冷战。

And they would rather a negotiated settlement.

它们宁愿通过谈判解决。

They're not willing to push very hard for it.

它们不愿意施加太大压力。

But they certainly do not see a radical decoupling of the Russian,

它们当然不想看到俄罗斯经济，

and potentially the Chinese economy,

以及潜在的中国经济，

from the rest of the world, from Europe,

与世界剩余地区，欧洲、美国、

from the US, from the advanced industrial democracies,

发达工业民主体制彻底脱钩，

as in any way in their interest.

因为在很多方面都符合自身利益。

And ultimately, that does create at least some buffer,

最终，这至少创造一些缓冲，

some guardrail on how much this is likely to escalate as a conflict going forward.

是一些这可能在多大程度上 升级为一场冲突的护栏。

BG: I want to make a step back and unpack some of that,

BG：我想要退一步， 理清楚一些事情，

maybe starting with a question that relates to your last point

也许从你最后一个观点的问题开始，

and is probably on the mind of many.

这可能也是很多人心中的问题。

And it is:

那就是：

Is there still some real space for negotiation?

还有谈判的空间吗？

Is there still a potential relationship between Russia and Ukraine?

俄罗斯和乌克兰之间 还有潜在的关系吗？

IB: The foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine just met recently in Turkey.

IB：俄罗斯和乌克兰外长 最近在土耳其举行了会晤。

It was as much of a non-event

就像之前三次

as the three preceding negotiations of more junior representatives

在白俄罗斯边境举行的谈判一样，

of their teams on the Belarus border.

这次谈判也很平淡。

The one thing that has been accomplished to a small degree

在一定程度上达成的一个事情是

has been humanitarian corridors,

从一些正在被俄罗斯打击

extending out of a number of Ukrainian cities

的乌克兰城市中

that are being pounded by Russian military.

延伸出来的人道主义走廊。

That's because the Ukrainians are interested in protecting their civilians,

因为乌克兰人的兴趣是保护平民，

and the Russians are interested in taking a lot of territory

俄罗斯则对占领土地

without necessarily having to kill so many Ukrainians,

且无需杀害乌克兰人民感兴趣，

that could cause problems for them internationally

否则这会对它们在国际上

as well as domestically inside Russia.

和国内造成麻烦。

But that is nowhere close to a negotiated settlement.

但这里谈判解决还差得远。

Now, I mean, everyone I know

我认识的

that's involved in the negotiations right now

当下涉及谈判的人反馈说

responds that the President Putin himself is hell-bent on taking Kyiv

普金总统执意 拿下基辅(Kyiv)，

and on removing Zelenskyy from power.

把泽连斯基(Zelenskyy) 赶下台。

Now I think, and by the way, they're getting quite close

现在我认为，顺便说一下， 它们已经很接近

to being able to accomplish that militarily on the ground.

完成地面军事行动了。

I think within the next couple of weeks, certainly, it looks very likely.

我认为在接下来几周，当然很可能。

A couple of points here.

这里有几个要点。

One, there is no reason to put any stock in anything

一是，我们不要相信

that the Russians are saying publicly in terms of their diplomacy.

俄罗斯在任何公开外交场合 说的事情。

They lied to the face of every world leader

它们在世界每个领袖面前撒谎说

about the invasion that they said they were not going to do into Ukraine.

它们不会入侵乌克兰。

And then just today,

然后，就在今天，

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly said,

俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫 (Sergey Lavrov)公开表示，

well, the Russians didn't attack Ukraine.

俄罗斯没有攻击乌克兰。

I mean, this is Orwellian stuff, right?

这是奥威尔式的，不是吗？

So first of all, do not report on Russian public statements

所以首先， 不要报道俄罗斯公开声明，

as if they bear any semblance to reality on the ground.

好像它们和现实有相似之处似的。

Secondarily, this looks like a huge loss for Putin right now.

第二，现在来看这对普金是 一个巨大的损失。

He understands it, and I think he would have a hard time,

他懂得这点，我认为他现在很难，

even with his control of information, spinning this to his public

即便他控制住信息， 把这些信息公之于众，

without removing Zelenskyy,

没能把泽连斯基赶下台，

without the “de-Nazification,” as he calls it --

没能“去纳粹化”， 就如他所宣称的——

which is an obscenity in an environment

这真是肮脏，毕竟

where the Ukrainian president is actually Jewish --

乌克兰总统其实是犹太人——

the disarmament of Ukraine,

没能解除乌克兰武装，

and of course, the ability of the Russians

并且当然还有俄罗斯

to change how they feel about Ukraine as a threat to the Russian homeland.

改变他们对乌克兰对俄罗斯国土 构成威胁的能力。

BG: What level of support can we give Ukraine militarily,

BG：在普金考虑打击一个北约国家前，

intel, economic,

我们能够给乌克兰

before Putin considers taking a strike on a NATO country?

何种程度的军事、情报和经济支持，

IB: Well, it’s interesting the way you framed that, Bruno.

IB：布鲁诺，你这样说很有意思。

Because I mean,

因为在我看来，

I think that Putin is already considering strikes on NATO countries.

普金已经在考虑攻击北约国家了。

I mean, there were massive attacks,

我的意思是，在过去这些年，

cyberattacks and disinformation attacks,

俄罗斯一直放纵对北约国家

by Russia against NATO countries with reckless abandon

有大规模的攻击，网络攻击

over the course of the past years.

和虚假信息攻击，

And in fact, when President Biden met with Putin in Geneva back in June,

事实上，今年6月， 当拜登总统在日内瓦会见普京时，

it seems like years and years ago at this point,

似乎是很多年以前，

Biden set the agenda.

拜登制定了议程。

Ukraine was largely not discussed,

乌克兰的问题基本没被讨论，

but what was discussed was cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

但讨论的是对关键设施的网络攻击。

Because you may remember Bruno,

因为你可能还记得，布鲁诺，

that meeting came right after the cyber attacks

那个会议就发生针对科洛尼尔管道

against the Colonial Pipeline.

的网络攻击后。

And the Russians after that indeed pulled back

俄罗斯在那次会议后停止了

on supporting those attacks by their criminal cyber syndicates.

对网络犯罪集团攻击的支持。

I expect those attacks to restart in very short order

我预期这些攻击将在很短的时间内

against NATO countries.

针对北约国家重启。

I also believe that the fact that the West is sending weapons to Ukraine

我也相信西方赠送武器给乌克兰，

and is providing real-time intelligence reports

提供俄罗斯在乌克兰军事部署的

on the disposition of Russian troops on the ground in Ukraine

实时情报给乌克兰

to better allow the Ukrainians to defend themselves

以更好让乌克兰保卫自己

and blow the Russians up,

把俄国人炸飞，

that is considered by the Russians to be an act of war,

这在俄罗斯看来无异于战争的一种，

and they will retaliate.

它们会报复的。

And how they retaliate is the question.

它们如何报复是个问题。

I don't think they're going to send troops into Poland.

我不认为它们会派军队入侵波兰。

But you know,

但你知道，

when the Americans under Reagan were providing that kind of support

当里根时期的美国对阿富汗的

to the mujahideen

圣战者提供支持

to help them defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan,

以抵抗苏联时，

the Soviets saw that as an act of war,

苏联将之视为战争，

and they engaged in acts of terrorism against the mujahideen in Pakistan.

于是它们对巴基斯坦的圣战者 发起了恐怖行动。

And I absolutely think that that is on the table

我绝对认为这是摆在桌面上的，

in terms of front line NATO countries especially,

特别是北约前线的国家，

like Poland, like the Baltic states, like Bulgaria, Romania.

像波兰、比如波兰，波罗的海国家， 比如保加利亚，罗马尼亚。

Would that be considered an Article V attack?

这会触发第五条集体防御吗？

Would that force NATO countries to strike the Russians back?

这会迫使北约国家回击俄罗斯吗？

I'm not sure it would.

我不确定会不会。

Not directly, not militarily.

非直接，非军事。

So I mean, I do think that the fact that the NATO countries see

所以我认为，我确实觉得北约国家

there is some sort of a big red line between sending troops in, for example,

在派遣军队和设立禁飞区之间 有一条很大的红线，

and doing a no-fly zone because that could cause World War III,

因为这可能会引发第三次世界大战，

but everything short of that is just a proxy war.

除此之外，这都是代理人的战争。

The Russians don't see it that way.

俄罗斯人可不这样看。

And that gives the Russians some advantage tactically

这给了俄罗斯愿意升级

in terms of their willingness to escalate.

的战术优势。

BG: You're describing a spiral of escalation here

BG：你在这里提到了

that will touch the globe and not only Ukraine,

将影响全球的螺旋升级， 不止乌克兰，

not only the eastern flank of Europe,

不止欧洲的东侧，

which means that not only this war has ripple effects everywhere,

也就是说不仅这场战争 会产生连锁反应，

but this is also starting a sort of realignment

但也会开始重构

of the global geopolitical situation and context.

全球地缘政治和背景。

To me, it has been very striking how Europe and the US

对我而言，看到欧洲和美国

have kind of moved very fast in a cohesive way.

快速连贯的反应速度非常惊人。

And it has chosen, after years of prioritizing the economics

它做出了选择，在它们多年的国际

in their international and global dealings,

和全球事务中以经济为优先后，

it's chosen to put politics over markets.

它选择了将政治置于市场之上。

It has adopted sanctions that will hurt Russia,

它采取了伤害俄罗斯的制裁，

but will also hurt Western businesses.

但也将伤害西欧经济。

It’s the discussion about decoupling that you put forward before,

这就是你之前 提到的关于脱钩的讨论，

an active kind of fencing out of the Russian economy.

这是一种对俄罗斯经济的积极隔离。

Talk to us about how do you see this decoupling playing out.

和我们谈谈你觉得这种脱钩 将如何演进。

IB: Yeah, I mean, I do think that for the Europeans,

IB：是的，我确实认为 对于欧洲人而言，

this is a permanent move.

这是永久性的动作。

I mean, I've spoken to top leaders in the German government

我跟德国政府的高层聊过，

who tell me that Nord Stream was a strategic mistake,

他告诉我说北溪是个战略错误，

and they understand it.

并且他们认识到了这点。

Who say that, you know,

谁这样说的，

Scholz making this speech from the Social Democratic Party

来自中间偏左的社会民主党

on the center left

的肖尔茨做了这个演讲，

is the equivalent of Nixon going to China.

他等同于访华的尼克松。

No one else could have made that move.

没人能做出那样的举动。

But having made it, everyone is on board.

但一旦做了，每个人都在船上了。

The popularity in Germany,

在德国的流行程度，

even given the massive economic consequences,

即便考虑到大量的经济后果，

is extraordinary and is across the board.

都是非凡的全面的。

And what they need to do now

他们现在需要做的是

is ensure that the diversification of fossil fuels in the near term

确保短期摆脱俄罗斯依赖后的

away from Russia,

化石燃料多元化，

towards Qatar and Azerbaijan and even, you know,

能以最快的速度完成转向卡塔尔

sort of the United States for LNG,

和阿塞拜疆，甚至包括

can be done as fast as humanly possible.

美国的液化天然气。

And that further, even though it’s going to cost a lot,

更进一步的，即便成本高昂，

some of it will be uneconomic,

其中有些还很不经济，

the move towards renewables actually picks up and is faster.

迈向可再生能源实际上更快了。

The Italians, Mario Draghi,

意大利，马里奥·德拉吉，

I think his shift in strategic orientation that they will do,

我认为他的战略方向会发生转变，

this is his "whatever it takes" moment.

这是他“不惜一切代价”的时候。

He had that in response to the 2008 financial crisis

他在 2008 年金融危机时

as the head of the European Central Bank,

任欧洲中央银行行长时 做过那种反应，

and that made him “Super Mario.”

那使他得名“超级马里奥。”

This is making him Super Mario as the Italian prime minister.

他是意大利总理的超级马里奥。

This is the "whatever it takes" moment for the Italians

这是意大利人的 “不惜一切代价”的时刻，

who never make public statements that undermine their economic,

过去他们从不在公共场合 以这种战略的方式发表

their commercial interests like this in such a strategic way.

会损害他们经济和商业利益的的声明。

The French, of course, have less to be concerned about

法国，当然担忧的就少了，

in the sense that most of their energy comes from nuclear power and is domestic.

某种意义上他们大部分能源 来自核能和国内。

So they are not as affected directly by a cut-off from Russia.

所以他们不受与俄罗斯切割的影响。

And also because Macron fancies himself,

还有也是因为自视甚高的马克龙，

especially as the leader of the European Commission this year,

尤其他今年作为欧洲联盟的主席，

the rotating leadership, occupying the presidency,

他担任轮值主席，

but also with his elections coming up,

但也随着他的选举到来，

and just given his personal belief that he can drive diplomacy,

鉴于他个人的信念， 他可以推动外交，

I believe that even after Kyiv falls

我相信即便在基辅沦陷

and after Zelenskyy is either killed or forced out

和泽连斯基被杀或下台后，

that the Americans will not want to engage in direct diplomacy,

美国人也不愿意参与直接外交，

the Germans probably won't.

德国人可能也不会。

The French will.

法国会。

And by the way, the Chinese will too.

顺便说一句，中国也会。

And I do believe that there is a potential,

我确实相信这里存在可能，

and this is a danger for the cohesiveness of the West,

中国人和马克龙最终会成为

that the Chinese and Macron end up being the post-Kyiv Normandy format

后基辅时代的诺曼底式外交的话， 对西方的凝聚力

of diplomacy.

是一种威胁，

That's something that the Americans and the Germans right now

这是美国人和德国人现在

are starting to worry about quite a bit.

开始担忧的点。

Now that's the European shift.

现在这是欧洲转变的时候。

And I think, as I said, I think it's permanent.

如我所说，我认为这是永久性的。

I believe the UK is in that camp as well.

我相信英国也在那个阵营。

I'm not so sure the United States is going to be as committed

我不确定美国 是否会在很长一段时间内

for as long a term.

做出承诺。

It doesn't affect the Americans as much economically,

这不怎么影响美国的经济，

it doesn't affect the Americans as much in terms of a direct security issue.

也不直接影响美国的安全问题。

None of those refugees are coming to the United States.

这些难民也不会进入美国。

But also American inequality,

但美国也存在着不平等，

American political polarization and dysfunction is so much greater

美国政治两极分化和功能失调

than what you experience on the continent in Europe.

比你在欧洲大陆 所经历的要严重得多。

So the potential that in six months' time or in two years' time,

所以潜力在 6 个月的时间 或者两年的时间内，

as we're thinking about the 2024 election,

如果我们考虑到 2024 年大选，

that the Americans have largely forgotten about this Russia issue instead,

美国人很大程度上 会忘记俄罗斯事件，

are focusing once again on domestic political opponents

而是再次将国内政治对手

as principal adversaries,

作为主要的对手，

which deeply undermines NATO,

这将大大重创北约，

much more than anything that would come from the Europeans,

比任何来自欧洲的东西都要大，

I think that is a real open question going forward

我认为，这是一个 真正的有待解决的问题，

that is perhaps as significant as the question of where the Chinese go.

可能与中国 向何处去的问题一样重要。

BG: Let me pick up on the point you made about energy,

BG：我注意到你关于能源的观点，

because somehow Putin's calculus can really change

因为普京的算盘真的会改变，

if Russian oil and gas stops flowing to Europe,

如果俄罗斯油气资源停止流向欧洲，

if it becomes part of the sanctions, right?

假设这被制裁了，对吧？

And this war indeed can kind of be read

这个战争确实多少会被解读为

as a war about energy.

能源的战争。

Selling energy funds it for Russia,

俄罗斯出售能源获得资金，

being dependent on Russian energy makes the European response more constrained.

依赖俄罗斯的能源 让欧洲反应更加克制。

Rising energy insecurity, rising energy cost

不断增加的能源不安全， 增长的能源成本

may or probably will destabilize European politics and economy

在接下来几个月可能会导致

in the coming months.

欧洲政治和经济的不稳定。

How would you look at this from the perspective of energy,

从能源的角度你怎么看这个问题，

and is there any likelihood

有可能

that Russian oil and gas is going to stop flowing,

俄罗斯石油和天然气停止流向，

either because Putin cuts it or the Europeans sanction it?

或是因为普京 切断它或是欧洲制裁它吗？

IB: Yeah, or because it's blown up in some of the transit in Ukraine?

IB：没错，还有可能是 乌克兰线路某段被炸了？

I mean, keep in mind,

记住，

so much of the gas transit is going through large pipeline networks,

大部分燃气的传送是 通过大型的管道网络，

which have some redundancy across all of Ukraine.

很多经过乌克兰。

But there's a big war that's going on right there,

但那里正在发生战争，

and lots of people that could have incentive to create problems.

很多人都有动机去制造问题。

The Americans, of course, the Canadians,

当然，美国人，加拿大人，

have said that they're cutting off oil import from Russia,

说他们切断了俄罗斯的进口，

but those are nominal numbers,

但这些都是名义数字，

so they don't matter very much to the markets.

所以它们对市场的意义不大。

The Europeans, as I said,

欧洲人，就像我说的那样，

want to decouple themselves as quickly as possible,

想要尽快脱钩，

but they believe that doing that this year would be economic suicide.

但他们相信 如果今年做将会是经济自杀。

So there isn't, despite everything we see from Russia,

所以不会，尽管我们 从普京看到了很多事情，

they're using thermobaric weapons now against the Ukrainian people,

他们现在使用温压武器 攻击乌克兰人，

the Americans are warning

美国人警告

that they could use chemical, biological weapons against Ukraine.

他们会使用化学武器、生物武器。

I mean, you know, you even have some people saying,

你甚至会听到有人说，

what if they use a tactical nuclear weapon?

如果他们使用战术核武器怎么办？

I mean ...

我意思是……

God willing, none of these things come to pass.

老天保佑的话，这些不会发生。

But it is very hard to see a military scenario in Ukraine

但很难看到乌克兰的战争场景

that leads the Europeans

会让欧洲

to completely cut off their inbound gas from Russia this year.

今年完全切断 从俄罗斯的天然气进口。

It's very hard to see.

很难看到。

And also, I would say, it's very hard to see any level of economic sanction

同样，我觉得，也很难看到会存在 哪种程度的经济制裁

that would change the mind of the Russians

能够改变俄罗斯对乌克兰

in terms of their military decision making

军事决策的

on the ground in Ukraine.

行动。

Now, I think there are a lot of things that the West is doing

我认为西方做的很多事情，

in terms of providing weapons for the Ukrainians

如提供武器给乌克兰

that are having an impact on the ground.

可能会对战地产生影响。

A lot more Russians are getting killed.

会有很多俄罗斯人被杀。

It won’t prevent them from taking to Kyiv, again in my mind

这不会阻止他们拿下基辅，

I feel quite confident about that.

我对这非常有信心。

But it's quite possible, perhaps even likely,

但很可能的是，甚至有可能

that the west of Ukraine will remain in Ukrainian hands,

西乌克兰仍然会留在乌克兰人手中，

which means that, you know, after this fighting is "over,"

这意味着当这场战争结束的时候，

that a rump Ukrainian state in exile exists in the West, run by Zelenskyy

在西边会存在一个由泽伦斯基领导 的残存的乌克兰流亡政府

or someone that's aligned with him,

或是和他同盟的政府，

and that they continue to get enormous economic and military support

他们继续从所有北约国家

from all of the NATO countries.

得到经济和军事支持。

So even though I don't think

所以即便我认为

that the energy situation will become so parlous

能源形势将不会严重到

that it would affect Putin's decision making,

影响普京的决策，

I do think that the West's response does matter on the ground.

我的确认为西方的反应对于 地面军事会产生影响。

BG: The war is kind of having radiating economic shock waves around the world now,

BG：这场战争的冲击波 现在已经辐射到世界各地，

ripple effects on food markets, for example and food security.

对粮食市场和粮食安全 产生连锁反应。

We talk a lot about energy security,

我们聊了很多能源安全的问题，

what about food security?

那么粮食安全呢？

IB: Well, you have the largest grain producer in the world

IB：现在世界上 最大的粮食生产国

invading the fifth largest grain producer in the world

入侵第五大粮食生产国，

on the back of a two-year pandemic that's still ongoing.

而且两年的疫情仍在持续。

We don't talk about it much anymore, but it's still there.

我们现在讨论得不多， 但它仍在发生。

And of course, this hit the poorest countries in the world the hardest.

当然，这对贫穷国家的打击更多。

The level of indebtedness

债务水平

and the unsustainability of paying that debt off

还有无法偿还的债务

was already becoming a massive problem

对于世界上大多数发展国家

for so many of the developing countries in the world.

已经成为一个很大的问题。

And the IMF provided a lot of relief in special drawing rights and direct aid

过去 12 个月，国际货币基金组织 已经在货币提款权和直接援助方面

over the course of the past 12 months,

提供了大量的救济，

but that money is now running to an end.

但那些钱都用完了。

And what happens when commodity prices spike up

会发生的事情是商品价格暴涨

and we have severe supply chain challenges with energy and food,

并且能源和粮食 存在严重的供应链挑战，

and those things are obviously very related.

这些事情都是非常相关的。

What happens is that a lot of people die.

很多人会因此死去。

What happens is we see a lot more starvation.

会有严重的饥荒。

The World Food Organization says about 10 million people a year die of starvation.

联合国粮农组织说 每年 1 千万人死于饥荒。

That number in the next 12 months is going to be a lot higher

这个数字在未来 12 个月只会

than it otherwise would have been.

比原有水平高得多。

The number of people who are food stressed in the world

在撒哈拉以南非洲， 在也门，在阿富汗，

is going to go way up in sub-Saharan Africa, in Yemen,

在孟加拉国， 世界上面临食物压力

in Afghanistan, in Bangladesh.

的人数将会大幅上升。

It's going to go way up.

将会大幅上升。

And you know, it's horrible to think about,

想想就很可怕，

but the massive impact of this Russia crisis

但这次俄罗斯危机的最大影响

is going to be much more global inequality.

将是全球的不平等。

And this is, of course,

这点，当然，

a direct consequence of the end of the peace dividend more structurally.

和平红利结束的直接后果 更具有结构性。

That over the last 30 years of globalization,

在过去 30 年的全球化中，

what did you have?

你得到了什么？

A lot of people were left behind,

很多人被抛在后面，

but the biggest thing you had

所得到的最大东西是

was the explosion of a single global middle class.

全球单一中产阶级的爆发。

On the back of the pandemic

在疫情的背景下，

and now this Russia-Ukraine war

现在是俄罗斯乌克兰战争

and the decoupling of the Russian economy from the West,

以及俄罗斯经济和西方的脱钩，

which doesn't matter so much in terms of the size of the Russian economy,

这对俄罗斯经济的体量而言， 影响没什么大不了的，

but it matters immensely in terms of commodities globally and supply chain,

但就全球大宗商品的供应链而言， 它至关重要，

those two things are going to seriously unwind

这两个事情将严重

the growth of this global middle class,

削弱全球中产阶级的增长，

and they're going to stress developing countries to a much greater degree.

它们将给发展中国家更大的压力。

They will lead to financial crises in countries like Turkey, for example,

它们会导致像土耳其那样的国家 发生经济危机，

that will no longer be able to service their debt.

比如，它们将不能偿还它们的债务。

You'll see more Lebanons out there.

你还会看到黎巴嫩。

You'll see some in Latin America, you'll see some in sub-Saharan Africa.

还有一些拉丁美洲， 撒哈拉以南非洲国家。

Those are the knock-on effects and so,

这些都是连锁反应，

so many people that have been saying over the last few weeks,

很多人过去几周说，

"Why are we paying so much attention to Ukraine?

“我们为什么要那么关心乌克兰？

It's because they're white people, because they're European.

因为他们是白人， 因为他们是欧洲人。

We wouldn't pay that much attention if they were Afghans

我们不会关心， 如果他们是阿富汗人，

or if they were, you know, Afghanis or if they were Yemenis.

或者他们，阿富汗或也门人。

We wouldn't."

我们才不会关心。”

I mean, first of all, you've got millions and millions of Ukrainian refugees,

我意思是，首先， 有数百万的乌克兰难民，

and we're not paying as much attention to them

跟我们接纳叙利亚难民比，

as we did to the Syrian refugees precisely because of race,

我们并没有因为种族原因，并没有

precisely because the Europeans are more willing to integrate

因为欧洲人更愿意 接纳数百万的欧洲伙伴

millions and millions of "fellow Europeans" into Europe.

涌入欧洲而施加更多的注意力。

But we are paying much more attention to the Ukraine crisis and we should,

而是给了乌克兰危机它应有的关注，

because the impact on the poorest people around the world

因为这件事对世界上穷人的影响

is vastly greater

是我们在那些

from this conflict than anything that we've seen

影响较小的经济体中看到的

in any of those smaller economies with less impact,

最严重的冲突，

despite all of the human depredation that’s happened over the past 30 years.

尽管过去 30 年 发生了所有的人类掠夺。

BG: Ian, I want to talk for a second about climate

BG：伊恩，我想讨论下气候问题，

because another crisis that has, kind of, disappeared from the headlines

因为另一个危机，从头条中消失的

is the climate crisis, right?

是气候危机，对吧？

Ten days ago, the IPCC released a report

10 天前，IPCC发布了一份报告

that the secretary general of the UN described

联合国秘书长称之为

as an "atlas of human suffering,"

“人类苦难的地图集。”

if I remember correctly.

如果我记得没错。

And it has been basically ignored.

它基本上被忽略了。

Over the last several years,

在过去几年中，

much of the world had started to embark, with more or less enthusiasm,

世界多少都开始着手， 或多或少的热情，

on a process of transitioning away from oil and gas

从石油和天然气

and into kind of a clean energy future.

过度到未来的清洁能源。

And now the war comes in

现在战争发生了，

and we look at what you just described, the unraveling of global supply chains,

我们看看你刚才描述的， 全球供应链的瓦解，

the dependency on energy and so on.

对能源的依赖等等。

And there are kind of two schools of thought here.

这里有两种观点。

One says this war is going to accelerate the adoption of clean energy

一种说法是战争 将加速清洁能源的普及，

because we need to diminish dependence from Russia and these fossil fuels.

因为我们需要减少 对俄罗斯和化石能源的依赖。

And the other says, the other school of thought says

另一种说法则认为

it's going to derail the transition to clean energy

它将破坏向清洁能源的转向，

because suddenly the priority is no longer decarbonization,

因为突然之间中，优先级不是脱碳，

suddenly the priority is energy security, energy supply.

突然之间，优先级变成了 能源安全，能源供应。

IB: The Europeans are largely in the first camp,

IB：欧洲人基本上 属于第一个阵营，

and they will move towards faster decoupling and investment accordingly.

他们将会快速脱钩和做相应的投资。

The Americans are largely in the second camp,

美国人基本上在第二阵营，

and they will move towards

他们会走向：

"Let's focus more on fossil fuels and partisan divide on this issue,"

“让我们更关注化石燃料 和在这个问题上的党派分歧。”

accordingly.

相应的。

The Chinese,

中国人，

who are the largest carbon emitter in the world by a long margin,

是世界上遥遥领先的最大碳排放国，

though not per capita and not historically,

虽然人均水平和历史水平不算，

but still in terms of every year totals,

但每年的总数仍然是，

they will continue on the same path they've been on,

他们将会继续按既定的路径前进，

which is a net-zero target

那就是净零目标，

but without yet a very strong plan on how to get there

但对如何实现并没有很激进的计划

and not feeling a lot of pressure to provide that plan,

也没有感到提供那个计划的压力，

because they think the Americans are completely incoherent

因为他们认为美国人 自己在气候问题上

and incapable of effectuating a strategic long-term plan

也没有完全连贯和没有执行

on climate themselves.

长期的战略目标。

So I mean, what we have is a lot of progress on climate and, of course,

所以我意思是，当然我们 在气候问题上有很多进步，

technology around renewable energies and around electric batteries

随着更多的钱投入其中，

and supply chain

可再生能源和电池技术

continue to get cheaper and cheaper

以及供应链

as more money is being invested in it.

变得越来越便宜。

And that does make me long-term more optimistic that by 2045,

这确实让我长期更加乐观， 到 2045 年

a majority of the world's energy will probably be coming from renewables.

世界大部分能源 可能将来自可再生能源。

And five years ago, I wouldn't have said that.

5 年前，我不敢这样说。

But still, I mean, when the news today

但仍然，当今天的新闻

is that the Americans are sending a high-level delegation to Caracas

美国将派遣一个高级代表团 前往加拉加斯，

to figure out if we can reopen relations with Venezuela

看看我们是否 能与委内瑞拉重开关系，

to get them to produce more oil again.

让他们再次生产更多的石油。

With the Iranians,

跟伊朗，

let's do any deal possible to get back into the JCPOA, the nuclear deal,

让我们尽一切可能达成协议， 重返核协议，

so that we can get that oil on the market.

这样我们就能在市场上 得到更多的石油。

Calling the Saudis, calling the Emiratis,

打电话给阿联酋，打电话给埃及，

and they’re not willing to take Biden’s phone call on this issue

他们都不愿意接拜登的电话，

while they're talking to Putin.

而是跟普京交流。

Those are warning signals that in the near term,

这些都是短期的危险信号，

we've got some big challenges

我们有很大的挑战，

and a lot of those challenges are going to be filled with fossil fuels

这些挑战中有很多都是由化石燃料

and fossil fuel development.

和化石燃料开采引发的。

And so I do think that the fact

所以我会认为说事实上

that both of the answers to your question are true in different places

你的问题的答案 在不同的地方都是正确的，

on net-net is more negative for how quickly we can transition.

我们能多快过渡是更加消极的。

BG: Let's talk a bit about China.

BG：我们来聊聊中国。

Brigid, I think, who’s listening in asks,

正在听讲的布里吉德问，

"What do you believe Xi Jinping is learning

“你认为习近平会从

from the world's response to the crisis, to the Ukrainian war?"

全球针对这场乌克兰 战争危机的反应中学到什么？”

IB: Well, certainly learning that this was a red line for the West.

IB :当然会学到 这对西方是一道红线。

And I think that this would have surprised,

并且我认为这让人惊讶，

it obviously surprised Putin,

这显然惊讶到了普京，

I think it would have surprised Xi Jinping as well.

我想这也可能会让习近平吃惊。

Xi Jinping saw Afghanistan.

习近平看到阿富汗。

He saw that Merkel was out.

他看到默克尔出出局了。

He saw that Macron is focused on strategic autonomy.

他看到马克龙专注于战略自给。

He sees Biden as much more focused on China and Asia.

他看到拜登更关注中国和亚洲。

I think that this is a surprise to Xi Jinping.

我认为那让习近平吃惊和。

But Xi Jinping also sees

但习近平也看到

that a lot of the world is not with NATO on this issue.

世界很多地方在这件事情上 和北约并不一致。

141 countries, if I remember correctly,

141 个国家，如果我记得没错，

voted to censor the Russians for their invasion of Ukraine

在联合国大会上投票支持

at the United Nations General Assembly.

审查俄罗斯入侵乌克兰事件。

But very large numbers of that 141

但这 141 个国家中的大多数

are not on board with all of these sanctions against Russia.

并没有参加针对俄罗斯的制裁。

They're happy with the diplomatic censure,

他们同意外交审查，

but they need to continue to work with the Russians.

但他们需要继续和俄罗斯合作。

The Chinese see that too.

中国人也看到这点。

The Chinese see just how much more fragmented the global order is.

中国人看到全球秩序 是多么得支离破碎。

I thought the most significant thing that we've seen from the Chinese so far

我认为目前从中国看到的两个事情

two issues.

最为明显。

The first is, of course, when Putin went to Beijing

首先，当然，当普京去北京时，

and Xi Jinping made the public announcement

习近平公开宣称

that “this is our best friend on the global stage,

“这是我们在国际舞台上 最好的朋友，

and we will work much more strategically with them economically,

我们将在经济、外交和军事上

diplomatically and militarily going forward."

与他们进行更多的战略合作。”

And Xi Jinping knew very well where Ukraine was heading at that point

习近平也非常清楚乌克兰的走向

and also knew that the likelihood of an invasion was coming.

并且也知道入侵发生的可能。

Didn't stop him from making that announcement in the slightest.

这丝毫没能阻止他发表那个声明。

And then after the invasion, and it's going badly,

随后在入侵发生后，事情变得更糟，

I mean, if you watch Chinese social media,

如果你看到中国的社交媒体，

the fact is that the censorship is all about Ukraine.

事实上，审查是关于乌克兰的。

I mean, the Chinese media space

我意思是，中国社交媒体

is pursuing a relentlessly pro-Putin policy.

在坚持不懈地推行亲普京政策。

They have media embedded with Russian troops

他们在乌克兰的俄罗斯随军中

on the ground in Ukraine.

有安排媒体。

Now, publicly, the Chinese government wants to be seen

现在，公开场合中， 中国政府想要被视为

as: “We’re neutral, we like the Russians,

“我们保持中立，我们喜欢俄罗斯，

we like the Ukrainians,

我们喜欢乌克兰，

we still want to work with everybody."

我们仍然想和任何人合作。”

But the fact is that China feels no problem

但事实是中国公开和普京保持一致

being publicly completely aligned with Putin,

并没有什么问题，

despite the fact that they are invading a democratic government

即便他们入侵了一个 位于欧洲中间拥有

with 44 million people in the middle of Europe.

4400 万人口的民主国家。

That's a pretty astonishing statement from the Chinese.

这是中国相当惊人的声明。

And there's no question that they have learned

毫无疑问的是他们也清楚

that they're in a vastly better economic position than they used to be,

他们的经济状况比过去好多了，

and that gives them influence.

这给予了他们影响力。

They are a government who projects its power

他们是一个主要通过

primarily through economic and technological means,

经济和技术投射权力的政府，

as opposed to Russia that projects it primarily through military means.

相比之下，俄罗斯 主要通过军事投射其权力。

And the Chinese believe

中国人相信

that there is a level of decoupling that is already going on

某种程度的脱钩已经发生，

as the Americans focus on more industrial policy,

随着美国专注更多的产业政策，

as they focus on America first for American workers.

如专注在针对美国工人的美国优先。

A US foreign policy for the American middle class, as Biden put it,

为美国中产阶级的美国外交政策， 正如拜登所说，

is one that really pushes a lot of capital to leave a country like China,

这个政策确实推动很多资本 流出像中国那样

which had served as the factory for the world,

作为世界工厂的国家，

but at the expense of a lot of labor

但这是以发达工业经济体的

coming out of advanced industrial economies.

劳动机会流失为代价的。

And now, yes, there are definitely some dangers

现在，是的，显然存在

that come from the Chinese being perceived as too close to Russia,

来自中国和俄罗斯太亲近的危险，

and they won't want that,

而他们并不像那样，

and they'll want to make sure that they're engaging diplomatically

他们想要确保说 他们积极和欧洲展开外交

with the Europeans to try to minimize that damage.

试图最小化那种伤害。

But I thought it was very interesting,

但我认为这非常有趣，

and I'm not sure this is public yet,

我不确定这是否公开，

that the Chinese ambassador to Russia recently, in the last few days,

中国驻俄罗斯大使，在过去几天，

organized a meeting of a lot of the top investors

组织了很多在俄罗斯的

Chinese investors in Russia, saying,

头部中国投资者说，

"This is a unique opportunity, the West is leaving,

“这是独特的机会，西方在离开，

we should be going in and doing more.

我们应该进来做得更多。

Because they're going to be completely reliant on us going forward."

因为他们将完全依赖我们。”

That is not a message that the Chinese ambassador delivers

这个信息不是中国大使应该发出的，

unless he is told directly to from Beijing.

除非他直接得到了北京的授意。

BG: Ian, I'm going to jump from topic to topic

BG：伊恩，我要从一个话题 跳到另一个话题，

because there are several questions in the chat.

因为聊天窗中有几个问题。

Nancy is asking about whether Putin can be removed from power.

南希问普京有没有可能被赶下台。

There's been a lot of discussion lately about regime change in Russia,

近期有很多关于俄罗斯政变的讨论，

either endogenous, like a palace coup,

要么是内源性的，比如宫廷政变，

or provoked by sanctions and other policies.

要么是被制裁和其他政策点燃的。

And so she asks,

所以她问，

"How likely is that Putin will face a challenge from inside Russia,

“普京面对来自国内的挑战 有多大可能，

whether a popular uprising, a coup or other?"

不管是民众起义， 政变还是其他？”

IB: It's very, very unlikely until it happens.

IB：这非常、非常不可能， 除非它发生了。

(Chuckles)

（微笑）

I mean, in the sense that there is absolutely no purpose

我的意思是，在某种意义上，

in trying to say, oh, I mean, you know,

我们完全没有意义说，

there are rumors that Defense Minister Shoigu is unhappy and, you know,

有一些流言说 国防部长肖伊古不高兴，

he might be making a move.

他可能会采取行动。

And I’ve seen these from relatively credible analysts,

我从一些相对可信的分析师 那听到这些，

I'm like, no, no, if there are such rumors,

我有些，不，不， 如果有这样的流言，

then we know it's not happening

那么我们知道这就不可能发生，

because that's the end of Shoigu and his family.

因为肖伊古和他的家人将完蛋。

But it's very clear that there is more pressure on Putin now

但非常清楚的是普京现在的压力比

than at any point since he's been president.

他当总统以来的任何时候都大。

Domestic pressure on Putin.

国内对普京的压力。

About 10,000 Russians have been arrested so far, detained,

大概 1 万名俄罗斯人 被逮捕，拘留，

most of them have been released,

大部分人已经被释放了，

for nonviolent anti-war protests.

因为非暴力的反战示威。

The Russians have shut down all the Western media.

俄罗斯关闭了所有的西方媒体。

They've shut down all the Russian opposition and independent media.

他们关闭了所有的俄罗斯 反对派和独立媒体。

So Putin has control of the space,

所以普京控制了局面，

though if you look at Russian conversations on Telegram,

但如果你看看 Telegram上的俄语对话，

you'll still see a bunch of people that are seriously, seriously anti-war.

你会看到很多人非常严肃地反战。

But, you know, once the economy starts truly imploding

但你知道，一旦经济开始真正崩溃，

and you can't find goods on shelves in Russia in major cities,

你不能在俄罗斯的大城市货架上 找到商品，

and this is coming, you know, very soon, this is a matter of days,

这会很快到来，就在几天的时间里，

in many of these cities,

在很多这些城市中，

those demonstrations will likely become greater,

这些示威活动可能会愈演愈烈，

some of them can become violent.

一些可能会变得暴力。

You know, that'll increase the pressure.

那些都会增加压力。

Then you have the issue of how the Russians are fighting on the ground.

然后还有俄罗斯人 如何在地面作战的问题。

I mean, what happens if you get a lot of desertions?

我意思是， 如果很多人开小差会怎样？

We haven't seen that so far.

我们目前没有看到。

What happens if you get orders to bomb Kyiv

如果接到轰炸基辅的命令，

and a whole bunch of Russian fighter pilots, bomber pilots,

但一群俄罗斯飞行员、 轰炸机飞行员拒绝执行

decide not to and they defect to Poland, to Germany.

并且投奔波兰、投奔德国会怎样。

That would have a big impact on morale.

这可能会对士气有很大的影响。

That has not happened so far.

目前这些还没有发生。

I mean, do be aware of the fact

我意思是，要意识到这个事实，

that the Ukrainians are winning the war on information,

在信息中乌克兰人正在赢得战争，

and that means that the information that you are getting in the West

这意味着你从西方得到的关于

about the war

战争的信息

is much more pro-Ukrainian --

是亲乌克兰的——

morale, enthusiasm,

士气、激情，

how well the military is doing --

军队各方面都做得很好——

than what's actually happening on the ground.

超出了实际在地面发生的情况。

And also be aware of the fact

同时也要注意到这个事实，

that the Russians completely control the war on information inside Russia.

俄罗斯完全控制了 俄罗斯内部的信息。

BG: Exactly.

BG：没错。

IB: They're not getting a balanced view.

IB：他们无法兼听兼明。

They're getting a completely pro-Putin view.

他们听到的是全是支持普京的观点。

And most of them actually believe it

绝大部分人相信这点，

in the same way that most people that voted for Trump in the US

就跟美国很多投票给特朗普的人一样

believe that the election was stolen and Trump is still president.

相信选举结果被窃取了， 特朗普仍然是总统。

I mean, it's much worse in Russia in that regard

俄罗斯在这方面的情况

than it is in the United States,

比美国要糟糕多了，

and I think that that's underappreciated in the West.

我认为这被西方忽略了。

So even though I think there's pressure,

所以即便我认为会存在压力，

I really don't think that it's super likely

我真的不认为普京随时被赶下台的

that Putin is out anytime imminently.

可能性存在。

BG: Ed is asking whether you see any off-ramp for Putin.

BG：艾德问，是否能看到 普京找个台阶下。

IB: I think that the most likely off-ramp for Putin is after Kyiv is taken

IB：我认为普京可能的出口是 基辅被打下来

and Zelenskyy is removed one way or the other,

或者泽连斯基被赶下台后，

at that point,

在那个节点上，

the possibility of the Russians accepting a frozen conflict

俄罗斯接受冻结冲突或者

or a cease fire that could lead to ongoing negotiations

停火继续谈判的

is a lot higher

可能性要更高一些，

because Putin can sell that as a win back home much more easily.

因为普京可以更容易把这 在国内当作胜利来推销。

But also because further Russian attacks at that point

但也因为在那个节点上， 俄罗斯再多的攻击

serve much less purpose for the Russians,

对他们意义不大，

are much harder to bring about,

也更难推进，

and potentially have much more negative consequences.

并且会带来更多潜在的负面结果。

So for me, that would be the near-term potential break

所以我的观点是，存在短期的暂停，

where we could at least freeze issues largely where they are.

我们至少可以在很大程度上 冻结这个问题。

Now whether that could then eventually lead to a climbdown or not,

现在这是否会导致双方让步，

I mean, the Russians have been very happy with frozen conflicts on their borders

我意思是，俄罗斯会非常满意 看到边境

for years and years and years.

冻结冲突好多年。

I'm thinking about Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan,

我想到亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆中间 的纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫，

which basically stayed in place until the Azeris,

直到阿塞拜疆人在十年的时间里

over the course of a decade got enough military capacity

获得了足够的军事力量后，

that they could forcibly change the situation on the ground.

才强行改变地面上的局势。

Which, by the way, the Ukrainians might also be eventually thinking about

顺便说一句， 乌克兰人可能最终也会考虑，

because the West will be supplying them with advanced weapons all the way through.

因为西方将会给他们 一直提供先进武器。

I'm thinking South Ossetia in Georgia.

我想到了格鲁吉亚的南奥塞梯。

I'm also, of course, thinking about the two pieces of Ukraine

当然，我也想到了乌克兰

they took back in 2014.

2014 年夺回的两块地方。

So be aware of the fact that a negotiation that creates a cease fire

所以要意识到这个事实， 谈判达成停火

does not mean you're anywhere close to a resolution

不意味着你直接解决问题

or an end of the fighting that we're seeing.

或者我们看到的战争的结束。

BG: Someone else in the chat, who didn't sign by his or her name,

BG：聊天中未署名的朋友

is asking about the nuclear fear that hangs over the conflict.

问围绕着冲突的核恐惧。

How should we think of that?

我们如何思考这点？

IB: Yeah, we don't like it when Putin uses the N-word,

IB：是的，当普京使用核这个词时， 我们不喜欢，

and there's no question,

这是没有问题，

I mean, he and his direct reports have rattled nuclear sabers

我意思是，他和他的直接下属 在过去几周

on at least five times that I've seen in the past few weeks.

至少挥舞核武器几次。

I think that ...

我认为……

In 1962, I wasn't alive, we had the Cuban Missile Crisis.

在 1962 年，我当时还没出生， 发生了古巴导弹危机。

There was a real possibility of nuclear confrontation

世界两大超级大国确实

between the world's two superpowers.

存在核对抗的可能。

At least for the last 30 years, there’s been no chance of that.

至少在过去 30 年间， 并不存在那样的机会。

Functionally, no chance of that.

在功能上来说，是不可能的。

I think we're now back in a world

我想我们现在回到了

where a Cuban Missile Crisis is again a reality.

古巴导弹危机 再次成为现实的那个时代。

Now, that doesn't mean that I think nuclear war is likely or imminent.

现在，我不认为说核战争 很可能或迫在眉睫。

I don't.

我不这样认为。

And in fact,

事实上，

there is active deconfliction going on even today:

即便今天积极的消除冲突 也在进行中：

the Americans and Russians with a new hotline,

美国和俄罗斯有一条新的热线，

the secretary general of the UN,

联合国秘书长与

with the Russian defense minister

俄罗斯国防部长

engaging in deconfliction measures with UN

正在采取解决冲突的措施，

offices being invited to Moscow.

邀请联合国办事处前往莫斯科。

So as bad as it is right now,

所以尽管现在情况很糟糕，

people that have been doing this for a long time

人们一直以来在避免核武器战争上

are trying to avoid nuclear war.

做了很久的工作了。

But that's the point.

但在这个节点。

Is we're now in a situation

我们目前所处的情景，

where the conflict that we're going to experience

我们正在经历的冲突

needs to be actively managed

必须要被积极管理，

because of the danger of nuclear confrontation.

因为存在核对抗的危险。

So it now becomes a risk on the horizon that we must be continually aware of,

所以现在它成了我们必须 不断意识到的存在地平线上的风险，

even if only at a low level,

即便还只是低水平上，

as we take and consider further actions,

在我们采取和考虑进一步行动时，

as we consider diplomacy,

在我们考虑外交时，

as we consider escalation.

在我们考虑升级时。

It is now on the table in a way that frankly is so debilitating.

坦率地说，它现在以一种 非常虚弱的方式摆在桌面上。

I mean, as human beings all on this call,

我意思是，作为人类，

one of the most painful things to think about

其中一个最让人痛苦的事情是想到

is the fact that we still have these 5,000 nuclear warheads in Russia

在俄罗斯有 5000 枚核弹头，

and 5,000 the United States that are still pointed at each other,

在美国有 5000 枚核弹头 仍然在瞄准彼此，

and they still have the potential to destroy the planet.

并且拥有摧毁地球的潜在力量。

And we haven't had any real lessons that we've been able to learn

我们还没有从 1962 年的制度中

institutionally from 1962.

学到任何真正的教训。

BG: 5,000 being a generic figure, not the exact figure,

BG：5000 是个笼统的数字， 不是实际的数字，

but we are kind of in that order of magnitude.

但差不多是这个量级。

Then of course, there is the question of civilian nuclear,

然后当然，还有民用核能的问题，

so the two power plants, nuclear power plants,

两个电力发电站，核电站，

that have been seized by the Russians.

已经被俄罗斯占据。

One has been slightly damaged by a bomb,

其中一座被炸弹轻微损坏，

the other has been turned off.

另一座已经关闭了。

But those are also potentially gigantic nuclear problems just waiting to happen.

但也存在大的核问题发生的可能。

IB: Chemical weapons, biological weapons.

IB：化学武器、生物武器。

I mean, look, we have had two million refugees from Ukraine in two weeks.

我意思是，看，我们在两周内 有 200 万乌克兰难民。

As this continues, you're looking at five to 10 million refugees.

随着这个情况继续， 你会看到 500-1000 万难民。

I mean, it is hard --

这非常艰难——

Just take a step for a moment just as a human being.

只需花点时间想想，从人性的角度。

Imagine what it would take for a quarter of your country's population

想想国家 1/4 的人口说：

to say: “I am not living here anymore.

“我不再住在这里了。

I am leaving everything because of the condition of the country,

我要抛下所有东西， 因为这个国家的状况，

because of this unjust war

因为这场被你的邻居

that has been imposed upon you by your neighbor."

强加在你的身上的不义之战。”

That's what we're looking at.

这是我们正在观察的。

And again, it's important for us to, you know,

还有，对我们而言非常重要的是，

not lose the humanity of this crisis

不要失去这场危机的人性

and the extraordinary hardship

还有降临在乌克兰4400万人

that is being visited upon 44 million Ukrainians

身上的这场非凡苦难，

that have done nothing wrong, they have committed no sin

他们没做任何错事，

other than their desire to have an independent country.

无非是渴望拥有一个独立的国家。

BG: One other country

BG：另一个

that has not yet taken a very clear position is India.

没有采取清晰立场的国家是印度。

IB: Well, they're a member of the Quad,

IB：他是四方安全对话的成员，

and their relationship with China is pretty bad, and that’s mutual.

他们与中国的关系非常糟糕，这是相互的。

But in terms of Russia,

但对于俄罗斯，

there's been a longstanding relationship,

在印度和俄罗斯之间有一段

trade relationship, defense relationship

长期的关系、贸易关系

between India and Russia

和国防关系，

that the Russians are not going to jettison,

俄罗斯人是不会放弃的，

and they see no reason to jettison it.

他们也没有理由放弃。

And as long as you've got a whole bunch of other countries out there

只要你还有一大堆其他

that are substantial, that are willing to say,

很强大的国家愿意说，

we're going to keep playing ball with the Russians

我们将继续和俄罗斯合作，

then the Indians will too.

那么印度就会继续。

And that's why you've got the abstention in the United Nations vote.

所以印度就在联合国中投了弃权票。

And that's why you've had very careful comments

这也是为什么来自印度领导人的评论

as opposed to overt and strong condemnation

是小心翼翼的，

coming from the Indian leadership.

而非公开和强烈的谴责。

BG: Phil in the chat is asking,

BG：聊天中的菲力问，

"Will this cause a fragmentation of the financial system

“这会导致金融体系分裂成

with kind of a Western system and an Eastern system?”

一种西方体系和一种东方体系吗？”

So two different SWIFT-like systems, two different credit card systems,

两套类似SWIFT的系统， 两套不同的信用卡系统，

crypto, what's the role of crypto in all this?

加密货币， 它在这些中的角色是什么？

IB: I hope not.

IB：我希望不会。

I mean, I will tell you that before the invasion started,

我会告诉你说在入侵开始之前，

if you talk to most Western CEOs,

如果你和大多数人西方CEO聊，

and I'm talking across the entire sweep of sectors,

我聊了整个不同的行业，

so it's finance and it's manufacturing and its services and it's tech,

有金融有制造业，有服务和技术，

most of them would have told you that they did not in any way plan

他们大多数人会告诉你 他们并没有打算

on reducing their footprint in China,

减少在中国的足迹，

and a lot of them said

并且很多人说，

that China was their most important growth market in the world.

中国是他们全球最重要的增长市场。

Not a surprise.

并不为奇。

China is going to be the largest economy in the world in 2030.

中国将在 2030 年 成为世界上最大的经济体。

So, you know, a world that you're decoupling

所以你知道， 当中国将成为头号经济体时，

is not a good world

一个你要脱钩的世界

when China is going to be number one economically.

不是一个好世界。

I mean, that obviously is going to hurt the West in a big way.

我意思是，这显然会重创西方。

So there are strong incentives against that,

所以人们有很强的动力对抗这个，

and there remain very strong and powerful entrenched interests

并且美国和欧洲还有非常强大的

in the United States and Europe that will resist direct decoupling.

既得利益集团会抵制直接脱钩。

Despite the fact that there are these more incremental moves

即便有越来越多的走向

towards friendsourcing and insourcing

朋友外包或者内部外包的增量动作，

because, you know, Chinese labor is more expensive,

因为，你知道， 中国劳动力成本变得更加昂贵，

you don’t need as much labor to get capital moving,

有了机器人、大数据和深度学习等 这些东西，

given robotics

你并不需要

and big data, deep learning all of those things.

如此多的劳动力来让资本移动。

But I do think that the Russia conflict

但我认为俄罗斯冲突

risks a level of second-order decoupling.

会唤起一定程度的二级脱钩。

Because if the Russians end up financially integrated with China

因为如果俄罗斯人最终在经济上

in their own,

与中国融合，

not-as-effective SWIFT system,

效果也许不如SWIFT，

and all of their energy ends up going to China

并且他们所有能源都流向中国，

and the Chinese build that infrastructure and they get a discount on it,

并且中国构建那个基础设施， 并为此取得折扣，

and Russia's technology and their military industrial complex gets serviced

并且俄罗斯的技术和军事工业复合体

by Chinese semiconductors and Chinese componentry,

得到了中国半导体和 中国部件的服务，

well, I do think that there will be knock-on decoupling

嗯，我确实认为， 将会出现连锁脱钩，

that will be longer term and more strategic

这种与美国、与欧洲，

from the United States, from the Europeans

甚至与日本和韩国的脱钩将是

and even from Japan and South Korea.

更长期、更具有战略意义的。

So that is a worry,

所以这是一个担忧，

and I think the Chinese are highly aware of that.

我认为中国非常清楚这点。

And over the coming months, they will do everything they can,

在接下来的几个月中， 他们会尽力做任何事情，

both with the Europeans in particular,

尤其与欧洲人，

but also, I expect at least with some of the Asian economies,

但同样也会和一些亚洲经济体，

to try to limit the impact of that.

去试图减少那种影响。

Now, keep in mind,

现在，记住，

we haven't talked at all about Asia yet outside of China.

我们还没有谈到中国之外的亚洲。

The new Japanese Prime Minister Kishida is at least as hawkish

日本新任首相岸田文雄 对中国和俄罗斯的态度

in his orientation towards China and Russia as Abe was.

至少和安倍一样强硬。

He is providing support for the Ukrainians,

他为乌克兰人提供包括

including some military capacity --

一些军事能力的支持——

unheard of for the Japanese.

日本人闻所未闻。

He's allowing Ukrainian refugees --

他还接收乌克兰难民——

unheard of for the Japanese.

日本人闻所未闻。

And yesterday, the South Koreans had a very, very tight election,

昨天，韩国进行了 一场势均力敌的选举，

and Yoon is now in charge.

尹锡悦当选。

He is on the right, and he is the guy that is strongly anti-China,

他是右派，他是强烈反中的人，

was talking about South Korea having nuclear capabilities,

一直在说韩国应该拥有核力量，

wants a new THAAD missile defense system for the South Koreans

希望为韩国部署 新的萨德导弹防御系统

and wants to rebuild the relationship with Tokyo.

并想与东京重建关系。

That matters.

那很关键。

And that's a big strategic change in the geopolitical map

这是地缘政治版图上的重要战略变化，

that will look more problematic on the decoupling front

从北京的角度看，在脱钩方面

from Beijing's perspective.

会出现更多的问题。

BG: Three final quick questions that all come from the chat, Ian.

BG：伊恩，最后三个 来自聊天窗的简短问题。

One is, because you mentioned the rest of Asia outside of China,

第一个是，因为你提到 中国以外的亚洲地区，

"What about the rest of the world?

“那么世界其他地方呢？

What about Africa and Latin America?

非洲和拉美会怎样？

How do they factor into this conversation or don't they?"

它们将如何考虑这场对话 还是不需要呢？”

IB: They factor in.

IB：他们需要纳入考虑范围。

I mean, those that have significant commodities do well

那些拥有大宗商品的国家 会表现很好，

because the prices are going to be so high.

因为价格变得很高了。

Those that don't are going to be under massive pressure

那些没有的则面临很大的压力，

for reasons we already talked about,

因为我们已经谈论的原因，

but they are not going to be forced to pick a side on this one.

但他们不需要 被迫在这件事情上选边站。

I just don't see it.

我没有看到这点。

In the same way that if you were Colombia in the last couple of years,

就像过去几年你是哥伦比亚人一样，

you know, you found,

你知道，你发现，

even though you're working very closely with an American ally,

即便你和美国盟友合作紧密，

you're still dealing with Huawei and 5G.

你仍然与华为和5G做生意。

This is knock-on effects of all of this.

这是所有这些的连锁反应。

These are countries that are not going to take on

这些国家不会承担

significant economic burden,

重要的经济负担，

given how much they're suffering right now geopolitically.

鉴于他们现在遇到的地缘政治问题。

BG: Another one is about sanctions.

BG：另一个问题有关制裁。

How do we even know when and how,

我们怎么知道什么节点以什么方式

at what point we start rolling back sanctions?

会开始撤回这些制裁？

IB: I think that as long as Ukraine is occupied

IB：我认为只要乌克兰 在可以预见的未来

by the Russian government

被俄罗斯政府占领， 以及普京仍然在位，

for the foreseeable future and Putin is there,

制裁就会一直持续，

I can't see these sanctions getting unwound.

我看不到这些制裁会解除。

Now, if a rump Ukrainian government that is democratically elected

现在，如果一个 由选举产生的残余乌克兰政府

were prepared to sue for peace and retakes most of Ukraine,

准备提起和平诉讼， 重新夺回乌克兰的大部分地区，

but they give away Crimea and they give away the Donbass,

但他们放弃克里米亚和顿巴斯，

could you see in that environment some of these sanctions unwound?

那种情况下 你会看到这些制裁被解除吗？

Sure.

是的。

But I mean, I am suggesting

但我的意思是，我的意见是

that I think that many of these sanctions are functionally permanent.

我认为很多制裁在功能上是永久的。

They reflect a new way of doing business.

它们体现了做生意的新方式。

And when people ask me what’s going to happen when this is over,

当人们问我当这一切结束时 会发生什么时，

my response is, what do you mean over?

我的回应是，你说结束是什么意思？

What's over is the peace dividend.

结束的是和平红利。

We are now in a new environment.

我们现在处于新的环境中了。

BG: And one of the figures of this new environment

BG：其中一个这个新环境的人物，

and I want to close with that, is President Zelenskyy of Ukraine,

我想以他结束的是， 乌克兰总统泽连斯基，

who was not taken very seriously when he was elected,

当他当选时没有被认真对待，

he has come out as a significant figure in this war.

他在这场战争中成为举足轻重的人。

What do you make of President Zelenskyy?

你觉得泽连斯基总统怎样？

How do you read this character?

你如何解读这个角色？

IB: He's very courageous.

IB：他很有勇气。

I'm obviously inspired by his ability to communicate and rally his people

我明显被他沟通和团结人民的能力

and take personal risk in Kyiv while this invasion is going on.

以及当入侵发生时在基辅 亲身冒险所鼓舞。

But I'm very conflicted

但我很矛盾的是，

because I think many of the steps that Zelenskyy took

因为我认为泽连斯基在

in the run-up to this conflict

这场冲突的预备阶段采取的

actually made the likelihood of conflict worse.

很多措施实际上 让冲突的可能性变大。

He was unwilling to take the advice of the Americans and Europeans seriously

在冲突爆发前的几个月， 他不愿意认真听取

in the months leading up to the conflict.

美国人和欧洲人的建议。

He was unwilling to mobilize his people

他不愿意动员他的人民

to ready them for the potential of conflict.

为可能发生的冲突做准备。

He was certainly unwilling to give an inch

他当然不愿在乌克兰希望成为

in terms of Ukraine's desire to be a member of NATO,

北约成员国的问题上让步，

even though he knew completely

即便他完全清楚

that no one in NATO was prepared to offer a membership action plan,

北约内部的人还没准备 提供一个成员国的计划，

let alone actually bring them in as members.

更不用说让他们成为会员国了，

And part of that is a lack of experience

这个的部分原因是缺乏经验，

and lack of any business being in that position

在这场危机前，缺乏任何一种

in the run-up to this crisis.

业务经验。

So I’m very deeply conflicted in my personal views on Zelenskyy,

所以我个人对泽连斯基的看法 非常矛盾，

given the way he behaved before the invasion,

鉴于入侵发生前的表现，

compared to the extraordinary leadership that he has displayed to all of us

以及过去两周他展现在所有人面前

over the last two weeks.

的特别领导能力。

BG: Ian, thank you for taking the time,

BG：伊恩，谢谢你的时间，

for sharing your knowledge, and your analysis with us.

和我们分享你的知识和分析，

We deeply appreciate it. Thank you very much.

我们大为感激，谢谢你。

IB: Good to see all of you.

IB：很高兴见到大家。

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