An Extreme Weather Report From America’s Weatherman | Al Roker | TED

翻译人员: jing lin 校对人员: suya f.

I first started doing television weather in 1974 when I was a sophomore in college,

1974年，我还是个大学二年级学生 的时候就开始做电视天气预报。

and I have seen a lot of changes that I know you have.

而且我看到了天气的诸多变化， 我相信你们也都看到了。

From history-making hurricanes,

从创造历史记录的飓风中，

we're talking about record-breaking blizzards.

我们来谈谈打破纪录的暴风雪。

I've been --

我已经

(Laughter)

（笑）

Yeah, OK, laugh at my suffering.

好吧，嘲笑一下我的痛苦。

I'm glad you feel that good.

我很高兴你们这么开心。

Hurricane Sandy, this was really, to me, a game changer as far as climate,

对我来说，飓风桑迪跟气候一样， 是一个游戏改变者。

when people realized what was going on.

让人们开始意识到正在发生什么。

Hurricane Ida, which came onshore,

飓风艾达登陆后，

causing massive problems not just at landfall

不仅在登陆时造成巨大的破坏，

but also as it moved inland causing massive, massive flooding.

它向内陆移动时还引发了大规模的洪水。

A lot of us recently experienced dangerous air quality

很多人最近刚经历了因加拿大森林大火

because of wildfires up in Canada,

引起的具有危险性的空气质量，

that smoke stretched as far south as Atlanta.

大火的浓烟最远飘到了亚特兰大。

We're also experiencing atmospheric rivers,

我们也正在经历大气径流、

cyclogenic bombs of low pressure.

炸弹气旋。

We’ve also looked at rising ocean levels and, of course,

当然，我们正眼看着海平面上升，

paralyzing winter storms, stretching from Texas into the northeast,

瘫痪一切的冬季风暴 从德克萨斯州一直延伸到东北部，

unprecedented heat and flash flooding

意料不到的高温和洪水，

all within the last couple of weeks.

都在最近的几个星期内。

If we were to talk about everything that's going on,

如果我们要谈论

all these extreme weather events

近几年来发生的所有极端天气

that have been happening in the last couple of years,

的所有细节

we would literally be here for a couple of hours.

我们应该需要在这里呆上几个小时。

So we just wanted to take a look at some of the extreme weather events

所以我们主要关注那些因为气候变化

that are being fueled by climate change.

而加剧的极端天气。

So we boiled it down to a few key bullet points,

我们把它归结为几个关键点：

talking about hurricanes,

飓风、

tornadoes and wildfires.

龙卷风和野火。

And literally this is the tip of the iceberg

这实际上是冰山在发出

when it comes to climate change.

关于气候变化的警示。

Let's talk about, for example, hurricanes.

例如，我们来看一下飓风。

Did you know that between 2016 and 2019,

你知道在2016到2019年间，

we had four straight years with Category 5 hurricanes?

连续四年我们都遭遇了五级飓风吗？

That's the top of the level.

这已经达到了最高等级。

That is unprecedented.

这是前所未有的。

And beyond the increasing frequency,

除了频率加快，

hurricanes are also intensifying more rapidly.

飓风的威力也在更快增强。

We're seeing that happen time and time again with these hurricanes

我们一次又一次亲眼目睹

as they approach shore.

这样的飓风靠近海岸。

And this is because the environment is favorable,

这是由于环境利于它的生成，

because the ocean waters have heated up.

因为海水温度越来越高。

Now, let's talk about tornadoes.

我们再来看看龙卷风。

Same thing goes for this.

同样的事情正在发生。

Studies have shown an increase in tornado frequency,

研究已经表明龙卷风频率的加快，

more EF2 tornadoes in the Midwest and the Southeast.

更多达到EF2级的龙卷风 发生在中西部和东南部。

There's actually been a diminution of those tornadoes

实际上，这些龙卷风已经减弱了，

in the traditional tornado belt.

在传统的龙卷风带中。

They have moved east, south and north

它们向东、南和北移动，

in areas that are a lot more prevalent with larger populations.

这些地区普遍拥有更多人口。

And we're talking about more tornadoes during winter,

而且，我们更加关注冬季的龙卷风，

which is really something that we haven't seen in the last ten years.

这是过去十年来都未曾有过的现象。

Wildfires.

再来看野火。

OK, we know about the wildfires that happen out West,

我们知道，野火容易在西部发生，

and the average acreage burned in warm season has nearly doubled.

在温暖的季节，平均 烧毁面积几乎翻了一番。

There is no more wildfire season out West.

西部不再有野火易发季节。

And the folks out West were laughing at us in the East saying,

西部的人们在嘲笑我们东部的人说：

"Hey, get used to it.

嘿！习惯一下吧！

This is what we've been seeing."

这就是我们一直看到的。

We're getting used to bad air quality.

我们正在习惯一个糟糕的空气质量。

And in fact, the intensity from these frequent wildfires

实际上，这些频繁发生的野火的强度

has led to the deterioration of our lifestyle, our air quality,

正在导致我们的生活 方式、空气质量的恶化，

loss of property and crops.

导致财产和粮食的损失。

It is just really one of these things that is changing how we live.

它正是影响我们如何生存的因素之一。

But what happens to those folks who actually struggle?

那些正在挣扎着生存的人们， 正在经历什么？

Struggle with the actual impacts of climate change?

是正在与气候变化带来 的确切影响抗争吗？

Now, we've known for years that communities

多年来，我们已经知道

that are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change

那些在气候变化的影响面前最脆弱的人群

are the ones that are least responsible for climate change itself.

却是那些对气候变化 需要承担责任最少的人。

In fact, the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

事实上，政府间气候变化专门委员会

the IPCC,

即IPCC

estimates that in the next 30 years, and that's not that long,

预计在未来的30年间， 或许还不需要那么长时间。

140 million people will be displaced worldwide.

1亿4千万人口将面临流离失所。

That's more than the population of Russia.

这个数字比俄罗斯人口还要多。

That's how many people we're talking about.

这就是我们谈论的人数。

Here in the United States,

在这里，在美国，

federal government has had to start to compensate Indigenous communities

联邦政府已经开始补偿原住民社区，

because they've had to move because of sea level rise

因为他们由于海平面和气温上升，

and warming of the atmosphere.

不得不进行迁徙。

We were recently in Alaska and saw the change

最近，我们在阿拉斯加看到

that has happened to the Indigenous communities there

原住民地区发生的变化，

because of their lifestyle,

因为他们的生活方式、

their community and their heritage is being lost because of this.

社群和遗产都因为气候变化而失去了。

Now about 75 percent of the world

全世界生活在贫困线以下的人中，

lives under the poverty line in rural areas.

75%生活在农村地区。

And these are the same areas

同样也是这些地区，

whose natural resources are being undermined and destroyed

他们的自然资源已经被

by extreme drought, torrential rainfall and wildfires.

极端干旱、暴雨和野火摧毁。

And even though they try to do what they can,

即使如此，他们仍然在 努力去做他们能够做的事。

these events often force these communities from their very homes,

这些情况迫使他们的社群离开原来的家，

changing their lives, their communities and their culture.

改变他们的生活和文化。

Now, outside of our cultural communities,

除了影响社群文化，

climate change has an effect on our national security.

气候变化也对国家安全产生影响。

And that change of climate is going to affect

气候变化将影响

the ability to train war fighters,

训练作战人员、

to maintain facilities at home and abroad

维护国内外设施

and to be able to operate effectively with a fighting force

以及与战斗部队有效作战的能力。

because of climate change.

由于气候变化。

And in fact, a recent report by the Rand Corporation

事实上，兰德公司最近的一份报告

highlighted how climate change is already affecting military sites

强调了气候变化已经如何影响

all around the world

全世界的军事基地，

because of the diversion of funds

因为必须动用一部分资金

to have to harden these sites against climate change.

来加固这些军事基地以对抗气候变化。

And you think about vulnerability,

再思考一下脆弱性的问题，

one of the things we have to think about, the people who work outside,

其中一个问题就是在户外工作的人员。

in one of the earlier sessions,

在之前的TED演讲章节中，

we had some farmers here talking about this.

已经有农业耕种者在探讨这个问题。

Well, farmers, farm workers,

是的，农民、农场工人、

outdoor industries, construction workers, even our kids at summer camps,

户外产业、建筑工人、 甚至是去参加夏令营的孩子们。

they have to change how they work because of hotter and hotter summers.

他们不得不因为越来越 炎热的夏季而改变工作方式。

Now what can we do?

现在，我们能做什么？

How do we change things?

我们能如何改变这一切？

How do we get those solutions going

我们如何让解决方案进行下去，

that help us harden ourselves against climate change?

能帮助我们自己对抗气候变化的影响？

Well, one of the most impactful options is electrification.

最有影响力的选项之一是：电气化。

Sure, we think about cars, but what about stoves?

我们想到了汽车， 但你想到了炉具吗？

What about lawnmowers, leaf blowers?

锥形割草机、吹叶机呢？

In fact, a recent automotive test --

实际上，在最近的一个汽车测试中，

think about this, running a leaf blower for 30 minutes

想象得到吗？ 运行一个吹叶机30分钟，

adds more pollution to the atmosphere

比一个F-150卡车行驶3800英里

than an F-150 truck driving 3,800 miles.

带来的空气污染更多。

(Audience) Whoa!

（观众）哇哦！

One leaf blower.

仅仅是一台吹叶机。

And not to mention the noise.

还不说噪声的影响。

You change over to an electric leaf blower ...

你可以换一个电动吹叶机。

OK --

好。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

I'm not sure if you're against electric or leaf blowers,

我不确定你是否反对电气化或吹叶机，

but you should be for both.

但你应该两者都支持。

And of course,

当然，

everybody will appreciate it, not only your neighbors,

任何人都有可能受益于此， 不仅是你的邻居，

but your animal neighbors as well.

还有你的动物邻居。

And in fact, when we talk about our lawns,

实际上，还要说到我们的草坪，

because a lot of lawn care goes into this,

因为跟很多草坪护理都有关系。

we need to stop thinking about, you know, that green, lush lawn.

我们需要停止种植 绿色的、郁郁葱葱的草坪。

Let's rethink that to using more shrubbery, more brushes,

让我们重新考虑使用更多的不同灌木、

more drought-resistant plants.

更抗旱的植物。

It’s called xeriscaping.

这叫做“节水型花园”。

So that there’s less green as far as lawns, well-manicured lawns,

因此，减少一些绿油油的、 光鲜亮丽的草坪，

and more natural, indigenous plants that help conserve water

多一些更天然的当地植物来增加储水

and help the actual planet keep that water in.

帮助我们的星球锁住更多水。

And then there's another area that we can talk about.

还有另外一个领域我们可以谈论。

I know you look at me and you think,

我知道你看到我的时候可能在想，

"Yes, he's fashionable.

“是的，他很时尚，

Yes, he's GQ."

很《GQ》（绅士）

Right? OK.

对吗？

Well, the fact of the matter is, you know, fast fashion,

你知道，事实上，

that is just a real detriment for our environment.

快时尚正对我们的环境造成真实的损害。

It's cheap, quick, mass-produced fashions

廉价、快速、批量化生产的时尚

that are meant to be discarded,

应该被丢弃。

fill up our landfills, cause pollution because of the dyes that are used.

它填满了我们的垃圾填埋场、 使用的染料带来污染。

So what you end up doing

所以，你要停止

is adding to landfills and spending a lot of money.

增加垃圾填埋物和花费一大笔钱。

Instead, find good, durable, sustainable clothing

换做寻找品质好的、耐用的、

that's going to last more than one season

可持续穿着超过一季的服装

and you help reduce our landfills and causing more problems.

而你正在一起减少我们的垃圾 和避免带来更多问题。

And look good doing it, too.

而且，这么做看起来也很帅。

(Laughter)

（笑）

And lastly, the most important thing.

最后，最重要的一个问题是：

Engagement.

承诺。

You have to be engaged.

你必须要参与进来。

You have to know, let your elected officials know

你需要知道，而且需要 让你选举出来的官员知道，

that this is important to you.

这对你很重要。

You have to vote.

你要去投票。

You have to vote.

你必须去投票。

You have to go out there and support politicians

你要走出去，支持那些

who are going to support our planet.

打算支持我们的星球的领袖。

You know, one of the things that has changed my outlook

有一件事改变了我的观念，

in a very short period of time.

在一个非常短的时间内。

Nine days ago, I became a grandpa.

九天前，我成为了一个外公。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼和鼓掌）

I thought you’d pause and think, “He’s not old enough.”

我想，你可能中间想了一下： “他还不够老啊。”

But.

但是，

Obviously that's not the case.

这不是关键。

But I was holding my new granddaughter, Sky, which is -- I love the name.

当我抱着我的外孙女-天空，

我喜欢这名字。

Aww.

啊。

And I was literally, on Tuesday,

在星期二，

sitting about two hours, holding her,

我坐在那，实实在在 地抱着她，两个小时。

while I let my daughter and her husband get a break.

因为我想让我的女儿和女婿休息一下。

And I was thinking about giving this talk.

那时候，我就在想做这个演讲。

And I was thinking about,

我在想，

what kind of world is she going to have?

她将会拥有一个什么样的世界？

I mean, let's face it.

我的意思是， 让我们面对这个问题。

I'm only going to be here, if I'm lucky, maybe another 15 years.

如果足够幸运，我可能还能 在这星球上继续生活15年，

Who knows?

谁知道呢？

But it's her world.

但这是她的世界。

All of our grandkids and their kids, it's going to be their world.

这个星球将是所有我们的孙子辈 和他们的孩子们的世界。

What world are we leaving them?

我们将留一个什么样的世界给他们？

This younger generation is going to fight this fight.

年轻的一代将要做好打这一战的准备。

So support them.

所以，我们要支持他们！

Support politicians who decide that our planet and its health

支持那些认为我们的星球和它的呼吸

is the more important thing,

是更为重要的事情的领袖们。

that climate change is the most existential threat to our survival.

气候变化是最关乎我们生存的威胁

And make sure that you do what you can.

确保去做你能够做的。

Be conscious of the decisions you make.

有意识的去做决定。

We can all get together

我们才能够走到一起，

and make each individually come together

让每个个体联合起来，

and make a great change and change our planet.

产生巨大的改变，来改变我们的星球。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢！

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼和鼓掌）