Jennifer B. Nuzzo: 3 ways to prepare society for the next pandemic | TED

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Helen Chang

So I'm an infectious disease epidemiologist,

我是传染病和流行病学家，

and it used to be the case that when I would tell people that,

过去常见的情况是 当我告诉人们我的职业时，

they would ask me if it had something to do with the skin.

她们会问我是不是和皮肤病有关。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But thanks to COVID-19, most people have now heard of epidemiologists.

由于新冠疫情，大部分人 现在听过流行病学家。

So these days, when I tell people what I do,

所以这阵子 当我告诉人们我做什么时，

the questions I get asked most frequently are more like:

我被问的问题往往是：

When does this end?

这什么时候才能结束？

When do things go back to how they were?

什么时候事情才能恢复正常？

I get it.

我理解这点。

I am very eager to stop worrying about COVID-19.

我非常渴望停止担心新冠病毒。

But these questions seem to be imbued with a hope

但这些问题似乎饱含着

that when we get to the other side of all this,

当我们到达所有这一切的另一边时，

our prepandemic lives are just going to be waiting for us.

我们的疫情前生活 就会在前头等待我们。

Now this pandemic will end.

这个流行病会结束，

But it won't be possible just to go back to how it was in 2019.

但生活不可能回到2019年的样子。

Now that may sound bleak, but I assure you, it doesn't have to be.

这听起来可能让人沮丧， 但我向你保证，大可不必。

Let me tell you a story that's been giving me some hope.

让我告诉你们一个 带给我们一些希望的故事，

Feeling better about this.

会感觉好一些。

Baltimore 1904.

1904年巴尔的摩。

A lit cigarette was left in the basement

六层楼高的赫斯特大楼的地下室里

of the six-story Hurst building.

一支点燃的香烟。

Within a half an hour, the fire grew to an out-of-control conflagration.

不到半个小时， 这个火星变成失控的火灾。

Local firefighters were quickly overwhelmed,

当地的消防员很快不堪重负，

so crews came in from neighboring cities.

所以附近城市的消防员前来支援。

But when they arrived, they couldn't hook up their hoses

但当他们到达时， 他们无法连接软管，

because in 1904

因为在1904年，

there were over 600 variations of hose couplings

在美国有600种消防栓

on hydrants in the United States.

软管接头。

The fire destroyed more than 1,500 buildings,

火灾摧毁了1500多栋建筑，

2,500 businesses.

2500家商业。

And when it was finally extinguished,

当火灾被扑灭时，

the burnt district, as it was called, spanned more than 80 blocks.

被烧毁的地区横跨80多个街区。

Fortunately, just a few people died,

幸运的是，只有很少的人死亡，

but that was probably a function of luck

但这很可能是运气使然，

due to the fact that the fire broke out in a business district

因为火宅发生在周末没什么人

that was uninhabited on the weekends.

居住的商业区。

The story of the Great Baltimore Fire of 1904 is important for a few reasons.

1904年巴尔的摩大火灾 因为几个原因而变得重要。

To this day, it is one of the largest urban conflagrations in US history.

到今天为止，它是美国史上 最大的城市火灾。

And in today’s money,

用今天的货币衡量，

the toll of this one event is upwards of three billion dollars.

这一事件造成的代价超过30亿美元。

But the Great Fire is remarkable not just for its tolls

但这场大火非同寻常之处 不仅在于损失，

but for what happened afterwards.

而是接下来发生的事情。

Witnessing the devastation that was caused by a single unattended cigarette

见证到无人值守的 一支香烟引发的灾害，

prompted massive change

推动了巴尔的摩和世界其他国家

in how Baltimore and the rest of the country

在预防城市火灾上的

protect itself against urban fires.

大量改变。

We saw changes in three major areas.

我们看到改变主要发生在三个领域：

First, we began using data to make buildings safer

首先，开始使用数据让建筑更安全，

and to improve the way we respond to fires.

并且提升我们应对火灾的方法。

Governments passed ordinances

政府通过法令

that became the basis of the first building codes:

成为第一个建筑规范的基础：

standards that inform the design and construction of buildings

指导建筑设计和建造的标准，

to make them more resistant to fire

让它们更防火，

and to protect the people that occupy them.

更能保护居民。

We installed fire alarms so that we could detect and pinpoint fires in buildings

我们安装了火灾警报， 这样就能够第一时间侦测

as soon as they occur

和定位大楼火灾位置，

and alert people of the need to evacuate.

警报人们赶紧撤离。

And we created national standards for firefighting equipment

我们制定了消防设备的国家标准，

so that crews coming out of state could hook up their hoses.

这样跨州的消防员 就能够连接他们的软管。

The second area of change is that we created a culture of fire safety.

第二个改变的领域是 我们创造了消防安全文化。

We regularly test fire alarms and fire hydrants,

我们定期检验消防警报和消防栓，

and we educate people about the risk of fires,

并且教育人民火灾的风险，

how to prevent them and what to do when one occurs.

如何预防， 以及一旦发生时该如何做。

You remember "stop, drop and roll" fire drills in schools?

你记得学校里面的“停、降、滚” 消防演习吗？

These exercises prime us to act when the alarms go off.

这些练习让我们在警报响起时 做好行动准备。

Even if there's no noticeable sign of fire,

即便没有看到明显的火情，

we know we're supposed to get out of the building

我们知道应该离开大楼，

until someone tells us it's safe to go back.

直到有人告诉我们可以安全返回。

The third area of change was that we built up our fire defenses.

第三个改变的领域是 创建了消防部门。

Communities across the country created and staffed fire departments

全国的社区创建和配备了消防部门，

so that they'd be ready to respond in emergencies.

这样他们随时准备在紧急情况下响应。

And because we don't know when the next fire is going to occur,

因为我们不知道 下一次火灾什么时候发生，

we operate our fire defenses 24 hours a day, every day,

我们的消防部门每天24小时运作，

and we don't get rid of our fire defenses

我们不会因为几年没有火灾

just because we haven't had a fire for a couple of years.

就撤销我们的消防部门。

Data, drills and defense.

数据，演习和防御。

The collective impact of changes implemented in the US since 1904

美国自1904年以来 这一系列改变的影响是

has meant that we no longer have the same number of great urban fires

在19和20世纪频繁发生的

that were so frequent in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

城市大火灾数量不再出现。

Now I first came to Baltimore 17 years ago,

我十七年前第一次去巴尔的摩，

actually when the city was gearing up

当时这个城市正在准备

to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Great Fire.

纪念那场大火灾100周年。

I came to study infectious disease outbreaks,

我去研究传染病爆发，

and even then, well before COVID-19,

即便那时，早在新冠病毒前

it was abundantly clear that the risk of our experiencing

也非常明显的是

我们遭遇危险流行病的风险很高

a dangerous pandemic

was high and increasing.

并且在不断增长。

By the year 2000,

到2020年

the number of emerging infectious disease outbreaks that was occurring

传染性疾病爆发的数量

was four times greater than in the 1940s.

比1940年高4倍。

And in the last 17 years, we have witnessed a string of events

在过去17年，我们见证的一连串事件

that have each exposed vulnerabilities in how we respond to infectious diseases

暴露了我们应对传染性疾病的脆弱性，

and have challenged us in ways that should have made us really worried

并且挑战我们去真正担心 当真的大灾难来袭时

how we'd fare when the big one hit.

我们的应对举措。

I first heard about COVID December 2019.

我在2019年12月底 第一次听到新冠病毒。

I was on vacation with my family,

我当时正在和家人度假，

and in a few weeks we would learn

几周后，我们了解到

that the virus was spreading easily between people.

病毒在人群之间容易传播。

As an epidemiologist, that's when the alarms went off.

作为流行病学家， 这就是警钟响起的时刻。

At that point, most of my work had been focused on other countries,

那个时间点，我的绝大部分工作 聚焦在其他国家，

helping places develop the tools they needed

帮助开发他们所需的工具

to stop the spread of new diseases.

来阻止新病毒的扩散。

But it was becoming clear the US was not taking the steps it needed

后来变得清晰的是美国 并没采取所需的步骤

to protect us from the unfolding pandemic.

来保护我们远离不断增长的流行病。

On February 5, 2020,

2020年2月5号，

I testified before Congress about the US experience of COVID,

我在国会前对美国遭受新冠病毒作证，

and I said that just closing travel to China

我说只是关闭中国旅行

was not going to be sufficient,

并不足够，

that we urgently needed to bolster our defenses.

我们需要紧急提升 我们的防护级别。

We had a lot of reasons to be worried.

我们有很多理由担心。

Due to budget cuts,

因为预算裁减，

there were 250,000 fewer public health workers in the US

美国公共卫生工作人员比我们需要的

than we needed.

要少25万人。

Our hospitals weren’t ready for a surge of patients,

我们的医院无法应对病人的激增，

and the outbreak in China was causing disruptions

中国的疫情爆发也打破了

in global supplies of personal protective equipment and medicines.

全球个人防护设备和药品供应链。

But our leaders didn't heed those alarms.

但我们的领袖没有注意到这些警报。

While other countries, like South Korea, snapped into action

而其他国家，比如韩国，迅速行动

developing COVID tests and contact tracing programs,

开发新冠病毒检测和接触者跟踪项目，

the US remained in denial.

美国仍然否定。

Instead of telling us how to protect ourselves,

不是告诉我们如何保护自己，

our political leaders tried to assure us we had nothing to worry about.

我们的政治领袖反而试图 向我们保证无需担心。

Over the last year, I've worked

去年一年，

with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center,

我与约翰·霍普金斯 冠状病毒资源中心一起工作，

analyzing key COVID data

分析关键新冠数据

and gathering information from governments around the world.

并收集来自全球各地政府的信息。

And for much of the pandemic, we have had an inconsistent picture

在大部分的疫情中，我们对

of how much of a crisis COVID has been here in the US

美国发生了多少新冠危机以及

and who has been most affected

谁受影响最大的情况了解并不一致，

because states collect and report COVID data in inconsistent ways.

因为新冠数据的收集 和报告方式并不一致。

Still today states report testing data, vaccine data, COVID demographic data

直到今天州报告检验数据、 疫苗数据、新冠人口数据

differently.

不同。

Having nonstandard data, unstandardized data,

不标准化的数据，

in the midst of a pandemic

在疫情之中

is like not being able to hook up your hoses to the hydrants

就如你的国家在被烧毁时，

when your country is burning down.

无法把水管连接到消防栓一样。

Today, our culture of safety around infectious diseases is in shambles.

今天，我们关于传染病的文化一团糟。

We finally have vaccines, lifesaving tools to end the pandemic.

我们最终有疫苗、 生命拯救工具来结束疫情。

And too many of us won’t take them.

我们很多人还不采用它们。

If we thought about pandemics the way we thought about fires,

如果我们用思考火灾的方式 思考流行病，

what we would do would be to try to learn as much as possible

我们需要尽可能了解

about our vulnerabilities during COVID

我们在新冠病毒期间的脆弱性，

and work to ensure we are never again left so unprotected.

并且采取工作去保证 我们不会不受保护。

We would commit to action in three areas.

我们致力于在三个领域采取行动。

Data, drills and defense.

数据、演习和防御。

First, we would develop systems to ensure we have the data we need

首先，我们将要开发系统 确保我们有所需的数据

to know when and where there's danger and how best to protect ourselves.

了解何时何地有危险 以及如何最好地保护自己。

The next time there's a concerning outbreak in the world,

下次世界上再有让人担忧的爆发时，

we wouldn't just wait until people get sick enough

我们不需要等到人们病得足够重

to go to the hospital to test them.

才去医院检测他们。

We would go out and start looking for infections

我们将出去并开始寻找感染

so that we could detect them as early as possible.

这样我们才能够尽早发现它们。

And every case we find, we would investigate it,

每个发现的病例，我们需要调查它，

so that we could quickly learn

这样就能快速掌握

what specific places and activities are most likely to get people sick

哪些特定的地方和活动 更可能让人患病，

instead of just saying, "Stay home, if you can, for two years."

而不是只会说， “呆在家里，可以的话，呆两年。”

And we would develop national data standards,

我们会制定国家数据标准，

so that data from New Jersey

这样来自纽泽西的数据

could be meaningfully compared to data from Oklahoma.

就能够和俄克拉荷马州的数据比较。

The second area of action would be to start building a culture of safety

第二个行动领域是开始构建安全文化

that empowers us as individuals and businesses

增强我们作为个人、企业

and community organizations to protect ourselves and others.

和社区组织保护自己和他人的能力。

We would work to ensure that everyone had access to in-home tests

我们会通过工作去确保 每个人在家中都能获得测试

so that we could know if it's safe to go to work or to see family.

这样我们就知道是否 能安全工作或见家人。

We would teach people about the threat, how to protect themselves

我们会教育人民威胁，如何保护自己

and how not to spread it to others.

以及如何不传染给别人。

But this education would be mostly a reminder

但这些教育主要是提醒，

because we would be practicing these skills

因为我们将要在下一次疫情到来前

well in advance of the next pandemic.

练习这些技能。

We would use every flu season as a drill.

我们会使用每次流感季作为演习。

Long before COVID-19, Taiwan began staging mass vaccination exercises

早在新冠疫情前，台湾会在 每个流感季分期进行大规模的

every flu season.

疫苗接种活动。

They did this to boost vaccination rates in the most vulnerable,

他们这样做是为了提高 最脆弱人群的疫苗接种率，

but also to practice how they would do it in a pandemic,

但也是练习在疫情中将如何做，

so that well in advance of a crisis,

这样在危机发生前，

people would know where and how they would get a vaccine.

人们就知道能够在哪里 和如何去获取疫苗。

Now, at a time when the country is incredibly divided,

现在，在国家非常分裂的时候，

I know it may seem impossible

我们知道听起来我们不可能

that we could build this culture of safety around infectious diseases that we need.

建立我们需要的传染病安全文化。

But I have spent the last year and a half talking to all sorts of people

但我花了一年半的时间

和对此有不同看法的各色人群交流，

with a range of views on these issues,

from top leaders to QAnon believers.

从最高领导人到阴谋论信仰者。

And I assure you, we all want to protect ourselves and our families.

我向你们保证， 我们都想要保护自己和家人。

But we need to build trust.

但我们需要构建信任。

And we can't do that

我们不能等到

if we wait until the next crisis to talk to each other.

下一次危机发生时再彼此对话。

The third area where we'd take action

第三个我们要采取行动的领域是

is to build our defenses against infectious diseases.

构建我们的传染病防御系统。

Instead of a skeletal public health infrastructure

与其只有随着每次危机而兴衰起伏

that waxes and wanes with every crisis,

的薄弱公共卫生基础设施，

we would maintain, for good,

我们要永远保持

a large cadre of highly skilled public health professionals

一大批日夜工作的高技能

who work day in and day out

公共卫生专业人员，

to make our communities healthier and safer

以让我们的社区更加健康和安全

and be ready to respond in an emergency.

并准备好应对危机。

We'd reduce our structural vulnerabilities to infectious diseases,

我们要减少我们 应对传染病的结构脆弱性，

starting with our buildings,

从我们的大楼开始，

updating our building codes and ventilation systems

更新建筑规范和通风系统

so that we could be assured

这样我们就能够保证

that these spaces will not result in super spreading.

这些空间不会引发超级传染。

And we would implement economic defenses:

我们需要部署经济防御：

policies that provide financial and social support to people

能够为因自己生病、

who need to stay home because they're sick

爱人生病或需要隔离的人们

or a loved one is sick or they need to quarantine

提供经济和社会支持的政策，

so they don't have to choose between following public health guidance

这样他们就不必在遵循 公共健康指南和谋求生计上

and earning a paycheck.

做选择。

Data, drills and defense.

数据，演习和防御。

If we acted

如果我们在这三个方式上

in these three ways,

行动，

we'd have a much better shot of keeping the next pandemic threat

我们就更有机会将 下一次大流行病控制在

to a manageable outbreak

可控范围内，

instead of a blazing inferno that engulfs entire cities and countries.

而不会成为 席卷整个城市和国家的大火。

When people ask me

当人们问我

when the pandemic is going to end,

疫情何时结束时，

I don't think they're also wondering when the next one is going to occur.

我不认为他们会好奇 下一次疫情什么时候会发生。

They are, understandably, focused on getting past this threat.

可以理解的是，他们， 关注在度过这次威胁上。

They want to know for how much longer do we have to hold our breath

他们想知道离疫情的火苗消失

until the flames of the pandemic die down.

还需要屏住呼吸多久。

But conflagrations don't end just because one was put out.

但大火不会因为扑灭了一场而停止。

The frequency and severity of fires changes when changes are made.

当改变发生时，火灾的 频率和严重程度改变了。

The same is true for pandemics.

这对于流行病也是真相。

So when people ask me when are things going to go back to how they were,

所以当人们问我事情 什么时候恢复回往常时，

I have to say: hopefully never.

我会说：“希望永远别。”

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Helen Walters: Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you.

海伦·沃尔特斯:谢谢。 非常感谢。谢谢你！

So you talked about trust in that --

所以当你谈到信任时——

and we've seen the vaccine rate, when it's available,

我们看到有了疫苗后疫苗的接种率，

it's really shockingly low,

非常的低，

and much of that is really related to trust,

很大程度上这真是和信任有关，

trust in the systems, trust in society.

对系统的信任、社会的信任。

What are ways that you think that we can do a better job as a society

你认为作为社会我们 如何把工作做的更好，

to convince people that vaccines are safe and people should take them?

去说服人们相信疫苗是安全的， 他们应该接种。

Jennifer B. Nuzzo: I think, first of all, don’t give up on people.

詹妮弗·纳佐：我认为， 首先，不要放弃人们。

I have seen people change.

我已经看到人们在改变。

And you have to come at your conversations with people

你希望在同理心层面和人们

from a place of empathy.

进行对话。

Try to understand why, right?

去了解为什么，对吧？

We don't do enough of that,

我们那方面做的不够，

trying to understand why people feel that way,

去理解人们为什么会这样想，

and engage with them, hear them.

跟他们互动，倾听他们。

I have found that just simply giving space to people,

我发现只需要给人们空间，

to allow them to talk about their anxieties and their concerns

让他们可以谈他们的焦虑和担忧

and having the conversation

去开始一场对话

takes it from a culture war to just a conversation between human beings.

能够从战争的文化 转向人们之间的对话。

And we've lost that ability,

我们已经丧失了这种能力，

and part of the pandemic has taken that ability from us

疫情的部分夺走了我们的能力，

because we've had few opportunities.

因为我们机会更少了。

But we really do have to talk to each other

但我们真的需要相互谈话

and have the hard conversations,

进行这个艰难的谈话，

and just recognize that we're all walking through this world

并且只需要意识到我们在这个世界上

trying to get the same things, trying to do the same thing.

都在努力获得同样的东西， 都在努力做同样的事情。

HW: Well, thank you for everything that you’re doing, Jennifer.

HW：好的，詹妮弗， 谢谢你做的这一切。

JBN: Thank you.

JBN：谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）