How India could pull off the world's most ambitious energy transition | Varun Sivaram

Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

翻译人员: TED Translators Admin 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

The air smelled smoky and sulfurous.

空气中弥漫着烟熏味和硫磺味。

I just stepped off a rickety train to Korba,

我走下了开往科尔巴的 一趟摇摇晃晃的火车。

deep in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh,

科尔巴位于印度的 恰蒂斯加尔邦深处，

and home to a dozen coal power plants

也是十几家煤炭发电厂的所在地，

and India's largest open-pit coal mine.

拥有印度最大的露天煤矿。

There it is,

就是这里——

a literal hellscape,

眼前的景象让我不寒而栗，

complete with infernal fires that burn 24/7.

地狱般的大火从不熄灭，

But, in Korba, coal is life.

但在科尔巴，煤炭也意味着生命。

Most people I talked to accepted

和我交谈过的大多数人都承认，

that the coal economy powers their livelihoods,

煤炭经济为他们提供了生计，

but it is slowly killing them.

但也让他们慢慢走向死亡。

这是其中一座煤厂附近的一个社区，

Here's a community next door to a coal plant.

They wake every morning to homes coated in a fresh layer of ash

居民每天早上都是从煤厂喷出的

from the smoke that the plant belches.

一层新的烟雾覆盖的家中醒来。

Korba is one of the most critically polluted places on the planet.

科尔巴是这个星球上 污染最严重的地区之一.

And it's not just coal country that's hurting,

但除了煤炭，

all of India has a deadly addiction to fossil fuels.

整个印度都严重依赖化石燃料。

India's home to 22 of the world's 30 most polluted places on the planet.

在世界上 30 个污染最严重的地区中， 有 22 个位于印度。

In Delhi, the capital,

在首都德里，

residents lose 9.4 years off their life expectancy on average.

居民的寿命比平均值要低 9.4 年。

In 2020, the skies briefly cleared during the coronavirus lockdown,

2020 年，为对抗冠状病毒实施的封城期间， 人们迎来了短暂的蓝天——

as cars stayed off the roads, factories shuttered

公路上汽车寥寥， 工厂停止运转，

and power plants ramped down.

发电厂的产能骤减，

But the economic dislocation

但是突然而来的经济低迷

has put 400 million Indians at risk of falling deeper into poverty.

也让 4 亿印度人 面临陷入进一步贫困的风险。

India should not have to sacrifice development for breathable air.

印度不应该为了更新鲜的空气 而牺牲经济发展。

There is a better way.

事实上，还有更好的办法——

For India has a historic opportunity to industrialize using clean energy.

印度大可以抓住这次历史性的机会， 利用清洁能源来实现工业化。

That opportunity is why I moved halfway around the world

正是这个机会， 让我飞跃了半个地球，

from the US to India to join ReNew Power,

从美国来到印度， 加入了 ReNew Power

India's largest renewable energy company, as CTO.

这一印度最大的可再生能源公司， 担任 CTO。

After two years of crisscrossing the country,

在全国实地考察了两年之后，

I've seen green shoots everywhere,

我发现所到之处，

of a budding clean energy boom,

清洁能源的热潮正在萌芽，

daring me to hope

让我有充分的信心去期待

that India can pull off the world's most important energy transition.

印度能够成功的完成 世界上最重要的能源转型。

Its choices will make or break the world's fight against climate change,

它的选择将决定全世界 对抗气候变化这一斗争的成败——

for if India chooses fossil fuels to power its growing economy,

如果印度选择用化石燃料 推动其不断增长的经济，

its carbon emissions could explode,

它的碳排放量可能会爆表，

making it the world's number one emitter later this century.

并在本世纪末成为世界头号排放国。

Still, for most Indians fossil fuels are a luxury.

然而，对于大多数印度人来说， 化石燃料却是一种奢侈品，

Most live in rural areas,

大多数印度人住在农村地区，

and wood, cow dung and bioenergy sources

木材、牛粪和生物能源 占到了家庭能源使用量的 2/3。

account for two-thirds of household energy use.

Just six percent of Indians own cars,

只有 6% 的印度人拥有汽车，

and two percent have air conditioning.

2% 的人家里有空调。

Indians will need far more energy

印度人将需要更多的能源

to escape poverty and live modern, dignified lifestyles.

以摆脱贫困，过上现代的、 有尊严的生活方式。

By 2050 most will live in cities,

到 2050 年， 大多数人将居住在城市，

and they'll want to drive to work and cool their homes.

他们都会需要私家车和空调。

Along the way, India will become the world's most populous country,

同时，印度也将成为 世界上人口最多的国家——

home to 1.6 billion people by mid-century.

到本世纪中叶， 人口规模将达到 16 亿。

Its economy could multiply tenfold;

它的经济规模 可能达到现在的十倍，

its energy needs could quadruple.

能源需求可能会翻两番。

Today, coal, oil and gas supply three-quarters of India's energy,

今天，煤、石油和天然气 占据了印度 3/4 的能源供应——

producing electricity, fueling vehicles and powering India's factories.

发电，为车辆提供燃料， 并为印度的工厂提供电力支持。

If, by 2050, India still gets the same proportion from fossil fuels,

如果到了 2050 年，印度仍有 同样的比例的能源来自化石燃料，

it'll be a disaster for everyone,

这对每个人来说都将是一场灾难，

not least local populations,

尤其是当地居民，

vulnerable to pollution, climate change or rapacious new coal mining.

他们最容易受到空气污染、气候变化 或是肆无忌惮的新煤矿开采的影响。

Instead, India can make renewable energy the beating heart of a reimagined economy

相反，印度可以通过 同时实现三个大胆的目标，

by achieving three audacious goals all at the same time.

让可再生能源成为 这一重构经济体系的核心。

It's a route no country in history has ever taken,

这是历史上任何一个国家 都没有走过的道路,

but it is possible,

并且是有可能实现的，

and this moment demands it.

而此时此刻， 这也是我们的必经之路。

First, India will need to build solar and wind power

首先，印度需要 以前所未有的规模和速度

at an unprecedented scale and speed,

建设太阳能和风能设施，

replacing coal-fired power plants.

以取代燃煤发电厂。

Second, India will need to extend the reach of that renewable energy

其次，印度需要 将可再生能源的应用范围

to power sectors of the economy like industry and transportation

扩大到工业和交通等

that haven't traditionally used electricity.

在传统上不使用电力的行业。

And third, India must become radically more energy-efficient.

第三，印度必须从根本上 提高能源效率。

Here's my plan to achieve all three goals.

以上就是我实现这三个目标的计划。

First, India must build thousands of gigawatts of solar and wind power.

首先，印度必须建造 数千吉瓦级别的太阳能和风能设施。

To put this in context,

为了方便大家理解，

it will be more than enough renewable energy to power all of America.

这一规模的可再生能源 足够满足全美国的能源需求。

Fortunately, India is blessed with abundant sunshine.

幸运的是，印度还有 得天独厚的日照条件。

In theory, you could supply all of its energy needs

从理论上讲， 不到 10% 的荒地面积上的日照

by tapping the sunlight

就可以满足全印度的能源需求。

that shines on less than 10 percent of India's wastelands.

India also has substantial untapped wind potential

印度的陆地和近海 还拥有大量未开发的

on land and offshore.

风能潜力。

Wind and solar complement each other

风能和太阳能相得益彰，

because the wind often blows harder when it's less sunny,

因为当日照不足时， 通常都会出现大风天气，

like during the monsoon rains.

比如在季风降雨期间。

Here's some even more exciting news:

还有更令人兴奋的消息，

Wind and solar power are now cheaper than coal power,

风能和太阳能现在 比煤电的成本还要低，

and it costs less to build a solar farm in India

而且在印度 建一座太阳能发电场的成本

than anywhere else in the world.

比世界上任何地方都要更低。

Batteries have also become dramatically cheaper,

电池也变得越来越便宜，

making it possible to store and deliver energy on demand.

使得按需储存和输送能量成为了可能。

Thanks to falling costs, renewable energy has risen rapidly,

由于成本下降， 可再生能源得以迅速发展，

but it will need to grow even more explosively

但直至本世纪中叶，

through mid-century.

它还需要经历更大规模的 爆炸式增长。

This is the critical decade to invest in solar and wind power

这是投资太阳能和风能，

and avoid locking in new, long-lived coal power plants.

并避免锁定新的 耐久型燃煤电厂的关键十年。

India must also urgently expand its grid

印度还必须扩建电网，

to deliver power for massive solar and wind plants

将拉贾斯坦邦阳光充足的沙漠地区 或古吉拉特邦多风的海岸地区的

in the sun-soaked deserts of Rajasthan or the windy coast of Gujarat,

大型太阳能和风力发电厂提供的电力

to energy-hungry cities like Mumbai.

输送到孟买等能源需求旺盛的城市。

Not all renewables should be built at massive scale.

不是所有的可再生能源 都应该被大规模投入建设，

Distributed solar,

仓库屋顶上的分布式太阳能设备

on the rooftops of warehouses or the outskirts of sprawling cities,

或是不断扩张的城郊地区

can produce power close to where it's needed.

则可以就地供应能源。

Now, to be sure, nuclear and hydropower

目前，可以肯定的是， 核能和水力发电

will be essential to energy transitions around the world.

将对世界各地的能源转型 产生至关重要的作用。

But India simply lacks the state capacity needed

但印度缺乏快速建造 复杂而昂贵的工程

to build complex pricey projects at a breakneck pace,

所需的强大国力，

and all that push to build renewable wind and solar power

这就要求所有建设 可再生风能和太阳能的策略

best plays to India's strengths.

都能最大程度发挥印度的优势。

The second audacious goal

第二个大胆的目标

is to use renewable energy across the economy,

就是在整个经济体系中 广泛部署可再生能源，

including in sectors like industry and transportation

包括工业和运输业等

that don't use electricity today.

通常不使用电力的部门。

As rising renewable energy makes the power grid cleaner,

随着可再生能源技术的进步， 电网变得更加清洁，

India should make all of its trains run on electricity

印度应该开始制造电力火车，

and move more heavy freight from heavy trucks to rail.

把重型货物的运输途径 从重型卡车转移到铁路。

India's road vehicle fleet can also go electric.

印度的公路车队 也可以实现电动化。

Now, to be clear,

在此我要澄清的是，

we're mostly not talking about these electric vehicles,

我们讨论的不是这些电动汽车，

but these.

而是这些。

Two- and three-wheelers

两轮和三轮车

make up more than 80 percent of India's vehicle fleet.

占印度车辆总数的 80% 以上。

To accelerate the adoption of electric scooters and rickshaws,

为了加速实现 电动摩托和人力车的广泛部署，

India should build out charging stations

印度应该修建更多的充电站，

and beef up local power grids

强化当地电网，

to handle the influx of electricity demand.

以满足不断攀升的电力需求。

Still, electrification won't work everywhere.

不过，电气化并不是万灵药。

It may not be possible to use electricity to power some heavy industrial processes

在快速增长的 钢铁、水泥、化肥和石化行业，

in the fast-growing steel, cement, fertilizer and petrochemical sectors.

很可能无法用电 来为一些重工业过程提供动力。

Plants may need to add equipment

工厂可能需要增加设备

to capture carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels.

来捕捉燃烧化石燃料产生的碳排放。

Another solution could be clean hydrogen.

另一种解决方案可能是清洁氢。

Surplus renewable electricity can run machines called electrolyzers

过剩的可再生电力可以用来运行 一种叫做“电解槽”的机器，

that can split water into oxygen and green hydrogen fuel.

能将水分解成氧气和绿色氢燃料，

That hydrogen can then power applications in transportation and industry,

这些氢气则可以为运输和工业生产

such as making steel or chemicals.

如炼钢或化工等各种领域提供动力。

Hydrogen can also act as a sort of battery,

氢也可以作为一种电池，

storing surplus wind and solar power to be used later.

储存多余的风能和太阳能以备用。

Finally, the third goal is to radically improve energy efficiency.

最后，第三个目标， 就是从根本上提高能源效率。

If there's any country in the world where efficiency is all-important,

如果世界上有哪个国家 对效率的需求最高，

it's India.

那就是印度。

Even if India builds a massive supply of renewable energy

即使印度实现了 充足的可再生能源供应，

and extends the reach of that energy by stitching together its economy,

并通过整合其经济 来扩大可再生能源的使用范围，

it won't be enough without energy efficiency.

但如果没有提高能源效率， 也只是事倍功半。

Because if India's voracious demand for energy rises too quickly,

因为如果印度对能源的 巨大需求增长过快，

it'll have to fill the gap with polluting fossil fuels.

它将不得不用 污染严重的化石燃料来填补缺口。

Here's a crazy statistic:

这里有一个骇人的统计数字：

Just to power the insane demand for air conditioning,

只是为了满足对空调的疯狂需求，

India will need to add 70 percent of the power system capacity

印度就需要增加相当于 当今全欧洲 70% 的

of all of Europe today.

电力系统容量。

And because much of India is hot and humid,

也因为印度大部分地区的湿热气候，

air conditioning demand will peak during sweaty nights,

空调需求往往在闷热的夜晚 会达到高峰，

making it tough for solar to power ACs.

使得太阳能 很难满足空调的电力需求。

But far more efficient air conditioners could make it possible

但更高效的空调

to power the aspirations of a rising middle class

可能会让不断壮大的中产阶级 得以利用可再生能源

with renewable energy.

来满足他们的需求。

India's big advantage is that it's largely a clean slate.

印度最大的优势就在于 它可以从零开始。

An incredible 70 percent of India's infrastructure in 2030

展望 2030 年， 印度 70% 的基础设施

hasn't been built yet.

都还没有建成。

That presents a huge opportunity to enact stringent efficiency standards

这就为制定严格的能效标准， 以及设计节能建筑和城市

and design energy-efficient buildings and cities.

提供了巨大的机会。

Still, there are warning signs

然而，也有迹象表明，

that India's energy transition could sputter out.

印度的能源转型可能会戛然而止。

COVID-19 sharply slowed

新冠疫情的突然爆发严重阻碍了

the building of new renewable energy plants.

新的可再生能源工厂的建造进度。

Even larger challenges loom.

甚至还有更大的挑战正在逼近。

First, India's electricity distribution utilities

首先，印度的配电设施管理不善，

are mismanaged, economically fragile

在财政上捉襟见肘，

and forced by many states

许多邦被迫向农民和居民

to subsidize power to farmers and residential customers.

提供用电补贴。

India needs reforms

印度需要通过改革

to more efficiently combat energy poverty

来更有效的消除能源贫困，

while overhauling unprofitable utilities so they can pay for clean energy on time.

同时整顿入不敷出的公用事业， 以按计划支付清洁能源的费用。

Doing so will make it possible

这样将可能有助于

to raise trillions of dollars at home and abroad

在国内外筹集数万亿美元，

to finance India's clean energy transition.

为印度清洁能源转型提供资金。

Second, that transition will stall without new and improved technologies.

其次，如果没有新的或改进的技术， 这种转变也将停滞不前。

Here's an economic opportunity

这是印度发展先进清洁能源产业的

for India to cultivate advanced clean energy industries.

一个难得的经济机会。

In the future, India should manufacture and export

在未来，印度应该制造和出口

energy-efficient air conditioners,

节能空调，

electric two- and three-wheelers

电动两轮和三轮车，

and equipment to produce and use hydrogen.

以及生产和使用氢能源的设备。

India's already strong in wind power manufacturing,

印度在风力发电制造业方面 已经具备很强的实力，

and it could become a global leader in digital energy technologies.

而且很可能会成为 一个数字能源技术领域的全球领导者。

The international community can help here

国际社会可以通过资助创新

by funding innovation to make India's energy transition faster

来帮助印度加快能源转型，

and more affordable.

降低成本。

Countries like the United States

美国等国家应该协助

should help fund public procurement of advanced air conditioners

为高档空调的公共采购提供资金，

and partner to build projects on the ground in India

并与印度合作建设

that demonstrate critical technologies,

能够展示长期能源存储

such as long-duration energy storage and carbon capture.

和碳捕获等关键技术的实地项目。

Finally, coal isn't going away without a fight.

最后，对煤炭的需求不会轻易消失。

It's big business in India.

这在印度是一门 规模相当可观的生意。

Near Korba, India's coal capital,

在印度煤都科尔巴附近，

private companies are pushing ahead to expand coal mining,

私营公司仍在 努力扩大煤炭的开采规模，

even deforesting an elephant preserve to dig out the coal underneath.

为了开采地下煤矿， 不惜砍伐大象保护区的森林，

I witnessed the destruction firsthand.

我亲眼目睹了这种破坏。

But for every Korba there is a Kutch.

但每一个像科尔巴这样的城市， 都有一个标新立异的喀奇县。

In this wind-swept region of Gujarat, I gaped

在古吉拉特邦这个狂风肆虐的地区，

as construction crews hoisted 70-ton nacelles

当建筑工人将 70 吨重的机舱 悬吊于比足球场的长度还高的塔顶时，

atop towers taller than a football field is long.

我简直惊呆了。

The wind turbine blades are manufactured in India,

它的风力涡轮机的叶片 是在印度制造的，

and the electricity they'll go on to generate

它们所产生的电力将有助于

will help power economic growth.

推动经济增长。

Renewable energy offers India a cleaner and more prosperous future

可再生能源为印度提供了一个

than coal ever can.

比煤炭更清洁、更繁荣的未来。

Unless we hasten the transition,

除非我们加快这种转型，

air pollution and climate change will continue to ravage the country

否则空气污染和气候变化 将继续摧残这个国家，

and endanger the planet.

并危及地球的生态。

So, let's get to work.

那么，让我们开始行动吧！

Thank you.

谢谢。