How India could pull off the world's most ambitious energy transition | Varun Sivaram

Transcriber: TED Translators Admin Reviewer: Rhonda Jacobs

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

The air smelled smoky and sulfurous.

空氣聞起來有煙味和硫磺味。

I just stepped off a rickety train to Korba,

我剛步出前往科爾巴縣的搖晃列車，

deep in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh,

科爾巴縣為在恰蒂斯加爾邦深處，

and home to a dozen coal power plants

這裡有十多個燃煤發電廠，

and India's largest open-pit coal mine.

還有印度最大的露天煤礦場。

There it is,

就是這裡，

a literal hellscape,

真的是個地獄景觀，

complete with infernal fires that burn 24/7.

地獄之火不斷燃燒，全年無休。

But, in Korba, coal is life.

但，在科爾巴，煤礦就是生命。

Most people I talked to accepted

我交談過的人，多半都接受 煤礦經濟支撐著他們的生計，

that the coal economy powers their livelihoods,

but it is slowly killing them.

卻也在緩慢地害死他們。

Here's a community next door to a coal plant.

這是在燃煤發電廠旁邊的社區。

They wake every morning to homes coated in a fresh layer of ash

每天早上他們起床時，就有 一層新的灰覆蓋住他們的家，

from the smoke that the plant belches.

灰的來源是電廠噴出的煙。

Korba is one of the most critically polluted places on the planet.

科爾巴是地球上污染 最嚴重的地方之一。

And it's not just coal country that's hurting,

受到創傷的不只是煤鄉，

all of India has a deadly addiction to fossil fuels.

整個印度都有致命的化石燃料癮。

India's home to 22 of the world's 30 most polluted places on the planet.

地球上污染最嚴重的三十個地方 就有二十二個在印度。

In Delhi, the capital,

在首都德里，

residents lose 9.4 years off their life expectancy on average.

居民平均失去 9.4 年的壽命。

In 2020, the skies briefly cleared during the coronavirus lockdown,

2020 年，因為新型冠狀病毒封城， 可以短暫看到清澈的天空，

as cars stayed off the roads, factories shuttered

因為路上沒有汽車，工廠關閉，

and power plants ramped down.

電廠減產。

But the economic dislocation

但經濟混亂導致四億印度人

has put 400 million Indians at risk of falling deeper into poverty.

面臨更深陷貧窮的風險。

India should not have to sacrifice development for breathable air.

印度不應該得要犧牲發展 才能換取可呼吸的空氣。

There is a better way.

有更好的方式。

For India has a historic opportunity to industrialize using clean energy.

因為印度有個歷史性的機會

可將乾淨能源的使用給工業化。

That opportunity is why I moved halfway around the world

那個機會，就是我從美國 飛過半個地球到印度

from the US to India to join ReNew Power,

加入 ReNew Power 的原因，

India's largest renewable energy company, as CTO.

我去印度這間最大的 可再生能源公司擔任技術長。

After two years of crisscrossing the country,

我花了兩年時間跑遍印度各地，

I've seen green shoots everywhere,

且在各處都看見綠芽，

of a budding clean energy boom,

看見乾淨能源萌芽繁盛，

daring me to hope

我大膽地希望，印度能夠成功

that India can pull off the world's most important energy transition.

做到世界上最重要的能源轉型。

Its choices will make or break the world's fight against climate change,

印度的選擇會是全世界 對抗氣候變遷的關鍵，

for if India chooses fossil fuels to power its growing economy,

因為，如果印度選擇用化石燃料 來支撐不斷成長的經濟，

its carbon emissions could explode,

碳排放可能會爆增，

making it the world's number one emitter later this century.

讓印度在本世紀的晚些時候 成為世界第一的排放國。

Still, for most Indians fossil fuels are a luxury.

不過，對大部分印度人而言， 化石燃料是奢侈品。

Most live in rural areas,

大部分人住在鄉村，

and wood, cow dung and bioenergy sources

木材、牛糞，以及生物能源的來源

account for two-thirds of household energy use.

佔了家庭能源的使用的三分之二。

Just six percent of Indians own cars,

只有 6% 的印度人 擁有汽車，2% 有冷氣。

and two percent have air conditioning.

Indians will need far more energy

若要脫離貧窮，用現代、 有尊嚴的生活方式過日子，

to escape poverty and live modern, dignified lifestyles.

印度會需要更大量的能源。

By 2050 most will live in cities,

到 2050 年，大部分人會住在城市中，

and they'll want to drive to work and cool their homes.

他們會想要開車去工作 並讓家中涼爽些。

Along the way, India will become the world's most populous country,

過程中，印度會變成 世界上人口最多的國家，

home to 1.6 billion people by mid-century.

到世紀中，就會有 16 億人。

Its economy could multiply tenfold;

印度的經濟規模可能會變成十倍；

its energy needs could quadruple.

能源需求可能會變成四倍。

Today, coal, oil and gas supply three-quarters of India's energy,

現今，印度的能源有四分之三 來自燃煤、石油，和天然氣，

producing electricity, fueling vehicles and powering India's factories.

產生電力、供油給汽車， 並供電給印度的工廠。

If, by 2050, India still gets the same proportion from fossil fuels,

如果，到 2050 年，

印度的化石燃料比重仍然不變，

it'll be a disaster for everyone,

對所有人都會是場災難，

not least local populations,

尤其是當地人，

vulnerable to pollution, climate change or rapacious new coal mining.

最容易受到污染、氣候變遷， 或貪婪的新採煤所傷害。

Instead, India can make renewable energy the beating heart of a reimagined economy

印度也能換個方式，

讓可再生能源成為 重新構想之經濟體的核心，

by achieving three audacious goals all at the same time.

那就需要同時達成三個大膽的目標：

It's a route no country in history has ever taken,

歷史上沒有一個國家走上這條路，

but it is possible,

但，是有可能的，

and this moment demands it.

時代也需要印度這麼做。

First, India will need to build solar and wind power

首先，印度得要建造 太陽能和風力發電，

at an unprecedented scale and speed,

規模和速度都必須史無前例，

replacing coal-fired power plants.

將燃煤電廠取代掉。

Second, India will need to extend the reach of that renewable energy

第二，印度必須將那些 可再生能源的觸及範圍再延伸，

to power sectors of the economy like industry and transportation

供電給其他經濟部門， 如工業和交通，

that haven't traditionally used electricity.

傳統上尚未使用電力的部門。

And third, India must become radically more energy-efficient.

第三，印度必須大大提高能源效率。

Here's my plan to achieve all three goals.

我有個計畫，可以達成這三個目標。

First, India must build thousands of gigawatts of solar and wind power.

首先，印度必須建立 數百萬兆瓦的太陽能和風力電力。

To put this in context,

更清楚來說，

it will be more than enough renewable energy to power all of America.

這些可再生能源的量 要能供應整個美國還有餘。

Fortunately, India is blessed with abundant sunshine.

幸運的是，印度有天賜的大量陽光。

In theory, you could supply all of its energy needs

理論上，供應印度的所有能源需求，

by tapping the sunlight

只需要取得照射在印度

that shines on less than 10 percent of India's wastelands.

不到 10% 荒地的太陽就夠了。

India also has substantial untapped wind potential

印度也有很充足且尚未利用的風力，

on land and offshore.

陸地上和海邊都有。

Wind and solar complement each other

風力和太陽能彼此互補，

because the wind often blows harder when it's less sunny,

因為在較沒有太陽時， 風力通常都較強，

like during the monsoon rains.

比如雨季下雨時。

Here's some even more exciting news:

還有更讓人興奮的消息：

Wind and solar power are now cheaper than coal power,

現在風力和太陽能發電 已經比燃煤發電更便宜了，

and it costs less to build a solar farm in India

在印度建造太陽能發電場的成本

than anywhere else in the world.

比全世界任何地方都低。

Batteries have also become dramatically cheaper,

電池也變得便宜許多，

making it possible to store and deliver energy on demand.

是有可能做到根據需求 來貯存和遞送電力的。

Thanks to falling costs, renewable energy has risen rapidly,

因為成本下降， 可再生能源快速興起，

but it will need to grow even more explosively

但它得要在這個世紀中期 有更爆發性的成長。

through mid-century.

This is the critical decade to invest in solar and wind power

若要投資太陽能和風力發電， 避免再繼續使用新的、

and avoid locking in new, long-lived coal power plants.

長久的燃煤發電廠， 這十年會是關鍵。

India must also urgently expand its grid

印度也必須盡快擴展電力網，

to deliver power for massive solar and wind plants

將電力從陽光普照的 拉賈斯坦邦沙漠或強風不斷的

in the sun-soaked deserts of Rajasthan or the windy coast of Gujarat,

古加拉特邦沿岸的 大型太陽能和風力發電廠

to energy-hungry cities like Mumbai.

遞送給迫切需要能源的城市，

如孟買。

Not all renewables should be built at massive scale.

並非所有的可再生能源 都能大規模建造。

Distributed solar,

分佈式太陽能，

on the rooftops of warehouses or the outskirts of sprawling cities,

設置在倉房的屋頂上 或龐大城市的郊區，

can produce power close to where it's needed.

就供給電力給有需要的鄰近地點。

Now, to be sure, nuclear and hydropower

無可否認，核能和水力發電

will be essential to energy transitions around the world.

對於全世界的能源轉型都很重要。

But India simply lacks the state capacity needed

但印度就是沒有足夠的國家能力

to build complex pricey projects at a breakneck pace,

來快速建造複雜又昂貴的發電計畫，

and all that push to build renewable wind and solar power

而建造可再生風力和太陽能發電

best plays to India's strengths.

才是印度可以做好的。

The second audacious goal

第二個大膽目標

is to use renewable energy across the economy,

是要讓整個經濟結構 都使用可再生能源，

including in sectors like industry and transportation

包括工業和交通等

that don't use electricity today.

現今尚未使用電力的部門，

As rising renewable energy makes the power grid cleaner,

隨著可再生能源興起， 電力網會變得更乾淨，

India should make all of its trains run on electricity

印度應該就可以讓 所有的火車使用電力，

and move more heavy freight from heavy trucks to rail.

將大量的貨運 從重型卡車轉到鐵路上。

India's road vehicle fleet can also go electric.

印度道路上的車輛也可以轉而用電。

Now, to be clear,

讓我說清楚，

we're mostly not talking about these electric vehicles,

我們談的不是這種電動車，

but these.

是這種。

Two- and three-wheelers

二輪和三輪車

make up more than 80 percent of India's vehicle fleet.

佔印度車輛的比例高達 80%。

To accelerate the adoption of electric scooters and rickshaws,

若要加速採用電動機車和三輪車，

India should build out charging stations

印度應該要建造充電站，

and beef up local power grids

並增強當地的電力網，

to handle the influx of electricity demand.

以因應大量出現的電力需求。

Still, electrification won't work everywhere.

不過，電氣化不是處處都行得通。

It may not be possible to use electricity to power some heavy industrial processes

可能無法用電力來供應能源 給快速成長的製鋼、

in the fast-growing steel, cement, fertilizer and petrochemical sectors.

水泥、肥料，及石油化學等 部門中的一些重工業流程。

Plants may need to add equipment

廠房可能需要加裝設備

to capture carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels.

來捕集燃燒化石燃料造成的碳排放。

Another solution could be clean hydrogen.

另一個可能的解決方案是是清淨氫。

Surplus renewable electricity can run machines called electrolyzers

過剩的可再生電力 可以供應給一種叫做電解器的機器，

that can split water into oxygen and green hydrogen fuel.

它能夠將水分解成 氧氣和綠色氫燃料。

That hydrogen can then power applications in transportation and industry,

那些氫就能用來供給能源 給交通和工業上的應用，

such as making steel or chemicals.

比如製造鋼或化學物。

Hydrogen can also act as a sort of battery,

氫也能當電池用，

storing surplus wind and solar power to be used later.

貯存過剩的風力和太陽能 電力，供後續使用。

Finally, the third goal is to radically improve energy efficiency.

最後，第三個目標

是要快速改善能源效率。

If there's any country in the world where efficiency is all-important,

如果全世界有任何 一個國家要很重視效率，

it's India.

那就是印度。

Even if India builds a massive supply of renewable energy

就算印度能夠大量供應可再生能源，

and extends the reach of that energy by stitching together its economy,

且將其經濟結構整合， 擴展那些能源的觸及範圍，

it won't be enough without energy efficiency.

若沒有能源效率，還是不夠的。

Because if India's voracious demand for energy rises too quickly,

因為若印度對能源的需求增加太快，

it'll have to fill the gap with polluting fossil fuels.

就必須要用造成污染的 化石燃料來填補不足。

Here's a crazy statistic:

統計起來很嚇人：

Just to power the insane demand for air conditioning,

光是供應冷氣的大量電力需求，

India will need to add 70 percent of the power system capacity

印度必須要增加的電力系統產能

等同於當今全歐洲加起來的 70%。

of all of Europe today.

And because much of India is hot and humid,

且因為印度大部分地區既熱又濕，

air conditioning demand will peak during sweaty nights,

在讓人出汗的夜晚， 冷氣需求會達到高峰，

making it tough for solar to power ACs.

此時就很難用太陽能來供應交流電。

But far more efficient air conditioners could make it possible

但如果用更有效能的冷氣機，

就有可能靠可再生能源

to power the aspirations of a rising middle class

供電給不斷成長的中產階級。

with renewable energy.

India's big advantage is that it's largely a clean slate.

印度有個大優勢： 印度大致上可以重頭開始。

An incredible 70 percent of India's infrastructure in 2030

印度 2030 年的基礎設施， 高達 70% 目前都尚未建造起來。

hasn't been built yet.

That presents a huge opportunity to enact stringent efficiency standards

那是個大好機會，

可以制訂嚴格的效能標準，

and design energy-efficient buildings and cities.

並設計高能源效率的建築物和城市。

Still, there are warning signs

但，仍然有警訊顯示

that India's energy transition could sputter out.

印度的能源轉型可能會失敗。

COVID-19 sharply slowed

新型冠狀病毒疫情大大減緩了

the building of new renewable energy plants.

建造新再生能源發電廠的速度。

Even larger challenges loom.

還有更大的挑戰在逼近。

First, India's electricity distribution utilities

首先，印度的配電公用事業

are mismanaged, economically fragile

管理不當且在經濟上十分脆弱，

and forced by many states

且被許多邦強迫要求

to subsidize power to farmers and residential customers.

要補助農民和住宅用戶的用電。

India needs reforms

印度需要改革才能用 更有效的方式對抗能源貧窮，

to more efficiently combat energy poverty

while overhauling unprofitable utilities so they can pay for clean energy on time.

同時全面檢視無法獲利的公用事業， 讓它們能準時支付乾淨能源。

Doing so will make it possible

這麼做就有可能

to raise trillions of dollars at home and abroad

在國內外籌得數兆美金，

to finance India's clean energy transition.

來資助印度的乾淨能源轉型。

Second, that transition will stall without new and improved technologies.

第二，若沒有改良的新科技， 轉型也會陷入泥潭。

Here's an economic opportunity

這是個經濟上的機會，

for India to cultivate advanced clean energy industries.

印度可以藉機培養 先進的乾淨能源產業。

In the future, India should manufacture and export

在未來，印度應該要製造和出口

energy-efficient air conditioners,

高能源效率的冷氣機、 電動機車和三輪車，

electric two- and three-wheelers

and equipment to produce and use hydrogen.

以及製造和使用氫的設備。

India's already strong in wind power manufacturing,

印度在風力發電製造 方面已經很強了，

and it could become a global leader in digital energy technologies.

在數位能源科技上， 印度可以成為全球的領導者。

The international community can help here

如果國際社會想要幫忙，

by funding innovation to make India's energy transition faster

可以資助創新來讓印度的能源轉型 更快速、更能負擔得起。

and more affordable.

Countries like the United States

像美國這類國家

should help fund public procurement of advanced air conditioners

應該要協助資助大眾 採購先進的冷氣機，

and partner to build projects on the ground in India

並在印度進行合作計畫， 展示出重要技術，

that demonstrate critical technologies,

such as long-duration energy storage and carbon capture.

比如長時間能源貯存和碳補集技術。

Finally, coal isn't going away without a fight.

最後，煤礦不會輕易投降。

It's big business in India.

在印度，煤礦是個大事業。

Near Korba, India's coal capital,

在印度的煤都科爾巴附近，

private companies are pushing ahead to expand coal mining,

私人企業還在繼續擴展採煤，

even deforesting an elephant preserve to dig out the coal underneath.

甚至為了挖掘地底的煤礦 而將大象保護區的森林砍伐掉。

I witnessed the destruction firsthand.

我親眼目擊了這種破壞。

But for every Korba there is a Kutch.

但，只要有一個科爾巴縣， 就會有一個喀奇縣。

In this wind-swept region of Gujarat, I gaped

在古吉拉特邦這個強風 不斷的區域，我驚呆了，

as construction crews hoisted 70-ton nacelles

建造團隊把七十公噸的機艙吊起

atop towers taller than a football field is long.

放到比足球場長度還要高的塔頂。

The wind turbine blades are manufactured in India,

風力機葉片是印度製，

and the electricity they'll go on to generate

它們將來要產生的電力

will help power economic growth.

會協助供應經濟成長所需。

Renewable energy offers India a cleaner and more prosperous future

比起煤礦，可再生能源更能提供印度

一個更乾淨、更繁榮的未來。

than coal ever can.

Unless we hasten the transition,

除非我們加快轉型，

air pollution and climate change will continue to ravage the country

不然空氣污染和氣候變遷 會持續蹂躪這個國家，

and endanger the planet.

並危害地球。

So, let's get to work.

所以，咱們上工吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。