The Truth About Human Population Decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba | TED

翻译人员: Michelle Xu 校对人员: suya f.

Astronomers tell us that when we look to the night sky,

天文学家告诉我们， 当我们仰望夜空时，

we're actually looking back in time.

其实是在回望过去。

Light from those faraway stars takes so long to reach our eyes

来自遥远星星的光 需要用如此漫长的时间

here on Earth,

才能到达地球上我们的眼睛里，

that by the time we wish upon a particular star,

当我们对着一颗星星许愿的时候，

it may no longer even exist.

它可能早已不复存在了。

I'm here to tell you the population of Earth

而我要告诉你的是 地球的人口和那些星星一样。

is a lot like those stars.

In parts of the globe,

在世界上的一些地方，

the human population is already, or will soon be, shrinking.

人口数量已经或即将开始减少。

I know what you're thinking.

我知道你心里在想啥，

And yes, total population is still growing from eight billion today

没错，地球人口总数 仍将会从今天的80亿

to a peak of probably nine or 10 billion.

增长到最高可能90亿或100亿。

But when we track total increase,

但是当我们追踪记录人口增长总数时，

we're looking at the star that seems to be shining brightly,

我们面对的正是看起来闪耀夺目

but in actuality has already imploded.

但其实可能已经内爆的星星。

And that’s because there’s a difference between what’s happening on the surface --

这是因为地表上发生的事，

which is obvious total growth -- and the tectonic forces beneath.

这里指的是人口增长，和深层 地壳构造力的变化是不同的。

Since the 1960s, world population has more than doubled,

20世纪60年代至今， 全球人口至少翻了一番，

but the growth rate has been falling the entire time.

而人口增长率却在不断下滑。

We're witnessing the most fundamental shift to take place

我们正在经历现代人类 历史上最根本的转变。

in modern human history.

The shift towards pervasive and permanent low fertility,

我们在转变至普遍且永久性的低生育率、

population aging and eventual depopulation.

人口老龄化以及最终的人口数量下降。

Fertility is down everywhere,

各地的生育率都在下跌，

just at different rates in different places.

只是下跌的速度不同而已。

If fertility stays the same as it is today, just hold still,

如果生育率保持今天的水平不变，

by the end of this century,

到本世纪末，

China's population will be less than half of its current size.

中国的人口将降至不到现在的一半，

It's a loss of 800 million people.

那就是减少了8亿人。

South Korea's will be down by 63 percent,

韩国人口将减少63%，

Poland's and Japan's by half,

波兰和日本各减少一半，

Italy's and Thailand's by 44 percent,

意大利和泰国减少44%，

Eastern Europe by 40 percent.

东欧减少40%。

Even greater number of countries are already aging.

更多的国家已经开始老龄化了。

Again, just 20 years ago,

仅仅是20年前，

if we'd lined up everyone in Japan or Italy or Germany

如果把日本、意大利或德国的所有人

from the youngest person to the oldest

按照年龄从小到大依次排好，

and we ask that person in the middle their age,

我们问站在队伍中间的那个人多大，

they would have been 40 years old.

他应该是40岁。

Today, the populations of Thailand, Kuwait and Cuba are just as old,

而今天，泰国、科威特和古巴的 人口年龄中位数就是这么大，

with Chile, Iran and Vietnam close behind.

智利、伊朗和越南紧随其后。

And even India,

即便是印度，

as it seems to be this bright star,

这颗看起来闪闪发亮的明星

assuming the throne as world's most populous country,

即将登上世界人口最多国家的宝座，

has below-replacement fertility.

它的生育率也低于世代更替水平。

The number of young people entering into India's workforce

进入印度劳动力市场的 年轻人数量已达峰值。

has already peaked.

People are the foundation of everything in a society.

人口是一个社会一切的基石。

We're the workers and the voters

我们是劳动者，是投票人，

and the soldiers and the caregivers.

是战士，是照护者。

So how many of us there are and who we are, that matters.

我们有多少人以及我们是谁至关重要。

We're on track for there to be more people over age 60

按照目前的趋势，到本世纪中叶，

than under the age of 14 by the middle of this century.

60岁以上的人口将会 超过14岁以下的人口。

That radical shift in modern human society

这个现代人类社会的巨大转变

presents us with a world of possibilities.

给我们带来无尽的可能。

Our demography is our destiny, yes,

没错，我们的人口数量是注定的，

but how we react to that demography is not preordained.

但是我们如何应对人口数量却不是。

What possible worlds might we create

我们可能会创造出一个什么样的世界，

if we thoughtfully plan for an older,

如果我们能够提前对更加老龄化、 更少的人口做出周全的计划？

smaller population?

In one possible world,

一种可能是我们把头埋进沙子里，

we put our heads in the sand

and keep going about our business as usual.

社会继续照常运作。

We have seen most societies react like they're living in this world

我们看到大多数国家正是这样做的，

and throw money at people to have more babies.

它们试图通过经济刺激 鼓励人们生育更多孩子。

But it doesn't work.

但这根本行不通。

South Korea has spent 210 billion dollars

过去16年里，韩国投入了 2,100亿美元试图提高生育率，

over the last 16 years trying to raise fertility

and they keep hitting record lows, under one child per woman on average.

生育率却不断突破历史新低， 低于每位女性平均生育一个孩子的水平。

In this status quo world,

在这个安于现状的世界里，

we keep the same economic models that assume infinite population growth

我们保持同样的经济模式， 假设人口将无限增长，

and amass more debt to pay for our public spending.

通过累积更多的债务以支付公共开支。

Our social safety nets stay the same,

我们的社会保障网络保持不变，

which, those rely on more inputs from workers

依赖于工人们创造的价值

than withdrawals from retirees.

高于退休人员支取的财富。

That's what we call a pay-as-you-go system.

这就是我们说的现收现付制。

Western Europe is already struggling to keep these systems afloat

西欧正在苦苦挣扎保持这个系统运行，

because in many of those countries

因为它们中的许多国家中每位 退休人员仅有两名工人负担。

there are only two workers for every retiree.

You can see how top heavy the population's age structure is here

这里大家看到的是一个 头重脚轻的人口年龄结构，

and how in the next few years it will grow even more so that way.

在接下来的几年里这个状况还将加剧。

In a status quo world,

在一个安于现状的世界里，

the world's most powerful countries continue to increase military spending

世界上最强大的国家继续增加军费开支，

and try to project power beyond their borders,

并试图把力量投射到国境之外，

even as their national budgets strain

即便在国家预算紧张和 征兵池缩小的情况下。

and the recruiting pool for soldiers shrinks.

Hello, Russia, China, and maybe even the United States.

你好，俄罗斯，中国，可能还有美国。

So what results from failing to adapt and clinging to the status quo?

那么不做调整、安于 现状的后果是什么呢？

Systems overload and break.

系统将过载甚至瘫痪，

We have higher labor costs which lead to inflation

劳动力成本将不断攀升 从而导致通货膨胀，

and that just makes it even more expensive to have children.

而这将进一步提高生育成本。

Social security systems go bankrupt

社会保障体系将会破产，

and we lose the gains we've made in reducing old-age poverty.

我们在减少老年贫困方面 取得的成果也将付之东流。

But a head in the sand world isn't as bad as a fearful one.

即便如此，安于现状的世界 还是没有充满畏惧的世界那么糟。

In a fearful world,

在一个充满畏惧的世界里，

the ability to choose how many children to have

选择生育多少孩子以及 什么时候生育的权力被剥夺了。

and when to have them gets taken away.

Something that's easier in less democratic settings.

因为在不太民主的环境下 这是更容易做的事。

And not good news here either.

同样糟糕的是，

Twenty years ago, almost all of our aging countries were democracies.

二十年前，基本上所有 老龄化的国家都是民主国家。

Now, a quarter of them,

而时至今日，四分之一人口年龄中位数 在35岁或以上的国家不再是了。

those with median ages of 35 or higher, aren't free.

And I know we see this idea of coercion in science fiction,

我们在科幻小说中 读到过强制生育的做法，

but it's not just science fiction.

但这其实不仅发生在科幻小说中。

In 1965, when Nicolae Ceaușescu took the helm in Romania

1965年当尼古拉·齐奥塞斯库 成为罗马尼亚领导人时，

and he wanted more Romanian babies,

为了让罗马尼亚有更多的婴儿，

he forced it to happen through invasive measures.

他通过强制性措施促使其发生。

Fertility temporarily spiked,

生育率暂时出现飙升，

but not without dire consequences for women and for those children,

但却是以那些女性和孩子们 承担严重后果为代价的，

many of whom were abandoned to orphanages.

其中的很多孩子被遗弃在了孤儿院。

In a fearful world,

在一个充满畏惧的世界里，

immigration becomes more restricted.

移民变得更受限制。

There's more hatred and division

社会里有更多的爱国者和分裂，

as majority groups fear being replaced by people who don't look like them.

因为多数群体会担心被 和他们长得不一样的人所取代。

There’s less global cooperation as aging, shrinking countries,

全球合作变得更少， 因为老龄化、人口萎缩的国家

they lose the willingness

丧失了思考和资助其它 国家事物的意愿和能力。

and ability to think about causes outside their borders and fund those.

We can't come together on pandemics or climate change

我们不能在大流行病或气候变化 等跨国界问题上团结起来。

or other transboundary issues.

Does any of this sound familiar?

这些听起来熟悉吗？

I actually don't think we're fully in this world yet,

我其实并不认为我们已经完全 处于一个充满畏惧的世界里，

even if way too much of this hits close to home.

即使那里有太多东西很戳心。

But I can imagine how we might get there

但我能想像如果我们不 积极主动打造想要的世界，

if we aren't proactive to shape the world we want.

我们将会如何变成那样。

And what kind of world would we want?

那么我们到底想要一个什么样的世界呢？

Well, in a resilient world,

在一个富有韧性的世界里，

we compete to attract talent from across the globe

我们抛开民族主义倾向，通过 竞争吸引全球各地的人才。

and set aside our nationalist tendencies.

A shrinking world is in our future,

人口减少的世界是我们都要面对的未来，

but obviously some places are much closer than others.

但是显然有些国家要更紧迫。

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania,

在刚果、埃塞俄比亚、 尼日利亚和坦桑尼亚，

fertility is still high enough that each generation is twice the size

生育率仍然足够高，每一代的 人数都是上一代的两倍。

of the one before it.

Those young and growing populations can be a tremendous resource

这些年轻且不断增长的人口能够 成为他们国民经济巨大的资源，

for their national economies

if we have investments in human capital and other policies

如果我们在人力资本

that can help these countries reap a demographic dividend.

和其它能帮助这些国家收获 人口红利的政策上进行投资。

And they can be a resource for the global economy too.

他们还能成为全球经济的资源。

I mean, the US and Canada,

我是说，尽管美国和加拿大的 生育率均低于世代更替水平，

they stand out as still growing despite below replacement fertility in both.

它们的经济还在增长。

And in fact, Canada had record population growth last year,

事实上，加拿大去年的 人口增长创了历史纪录，

96 percent of which was due to immigration.

而其中有96%来自移民。

Theirs aren't the only models for immigration

它们的做法并不是唯一的移民模式，

and there are obvious trade-offs to opening your borders.

而且开放边界显然需要利益权衡。

But no one said this would be easy.

但没有人说过这会是件易事。

And speaking of things not being easy, we're going to have to work longer.

说到不容易的事，我们 将不得不工作更长时间，

Me too. You too.

我和你都是。

And that's because in nearly half of economies that the OECD tracks,

这是因为在经合组织 追踪记录的近一半经济体中，

fewer than 10 percent of people over the age of 65 still work.

65岁以上的人里仅有 不到10%还在工作。

That is not going to fly in a resilient world.

在富有韧性的世界里这可行不通。

But in a resilient world,

在一个富有韧性的世界里，

we've rethought what work looks like at older ages,

我们重新思考老年时工作是什么样，

and we strategically leverage technology to maximize our productivity.

我们通过战略性利用 科技以最大化生产力。

And we can work longer because we're healthier.

由于我们更健康了， 我们可以工作更长时间。

In a resilient world,

在一个富有韧性的世界里，

we finally realize that investing in health

我们终于意识到在健康上投资

is a much better use of time and resources

比起试图规定人口规模要好得多。

than trying to dictate population size.

Similarly, in a resilient world, we've put in place policies,

同样的，在一个富有韧性的世界里，

incentives and technologies

我们落实的政策、激励措施和技术

that recognize how we consume is just as important

都认同如何消费和 有多少人消费同等重要。

as how many of us consume.

And the environment is healing.

环境在逐渐好转。

In a resilient world,

在一个富有韧性的世界里，

those societies closer to the start of this demographic transition

那些更接近人口转型的社会

take advantage of the time to plan and institute sustainable systems

利用这个时间提前规划 并建立可持续的系统

in the face of their demographic change.

以应对其人口变化。

This is important

这至关重要，

because for the population ages 60 plus

因为等到60岁以上人口 从15%上升到30%，

to go from 15 percent of the total to 30 percent,

it'll take Ireland 92 years,

爱尔兰需要花92年，

the United Kingdom 89 years,

英国89年，

and Germany 70 years.

德国70年。

For that same demographic shift to happen now,

而同样的人口结构变化

it'll take India 34 years,

在印度只需要花34年，

Mexico 32,

墨西哥32年，

Iran 20

伊朗20年，

and Thailand, only 19.

而泰国仅需19年。

It's happening faster now.

现在这一切发生的速度更快了。

And we really need to realize this because those countries have to act,

我们必须意识到这一点， 因为那些国家需要开始行动，

including suites of policies like moving away from informal economies

它们需要实施系列政策，比如规避 会增加老年贫困风险的非正规经济。

that increase the risk of poverty in older ages.

You know, there are so many people on the planet right now

地球上有如此多人在65到74岁之间，

just between the ages of 65 and 74,

that altogether they'd be the third most-populous country in the world.

他们的人口总数可达各国人口排名第三。

There's far more of them than there are global migrants,

这个人数比起全球移民人数要多得多，

which we don't hear about, right?

这个我们没听说过，对吗？

And there'll be 800 million of them by the middle of this century.

到本世纪中叶这群人将达到8亿，

They're a vast untapped resource in most places in the world right now,

在世界上大多数地方，他们 目前仍是巨大的未开发资源。

but a well-utilized one in a resilient world

在富有韧性的世界里，这些资源 将以互惠互利的方式得到充分利用。

and to mutual benefit.

We should run from a fearful world and get our heads out of the sand.

我们必须远离充满畏惧的世界， 把我们的脑袋从沙堆里伸出来。

And we should be able to imagine a much better, more resilient world.

我们必须能够想象一个 更美好、更有韧性的世界。

I've always thought that the way we feel about population aging

我一直认为我们对人口老龄化的感受

to a large extent reflects the really negative way

很大程度上反映了我们 对自己衰老的消极感受。

we feel about our individual aging.

And that bias has held us back.

这种偏见阻碍了我们。

But just as with our own aging, this shift is inevitable.

但就像我们自身的衰老一样， 这个转变不可避免。

So what are we going to do about it?

那么我们该怎么办呢？

As individuals,

作为个人，

we know that our actions now set us up to live longer, healthier,

我们知道我们今天的行为 为日后奠定了基础，

more financially secure lives.

让我们能活得更长久、 更健康、经济上更有保障。

Our society's actions set us up

而今天我们社会的行动

for one of these three worlds to become our reality.

将为未来这三个世界中的 哪一个会成为现实奠定基础。

Let's make it a resilient world and reimagine a grayer,

让我们创造一个充满韧性的社会吧，

smaller world as a beautiful one.

让我们重新想象一个 更多银发、更小巧的美好世界。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）