The Truth About Human Population Decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

Astronomers tell us that when we look to the night sky,

天文學家告訴我們， 如果我們看向夜空，

we're actually looking back in time.

我們其實是看向過去。

Light from those faraway stars takes so long to reach our eyes

遠方星星的光要花極長的時間 才抵達我們在地球上的眼睛，

here on Earth,

that by the time we wish upon a particular star,

等到我們要針對某個星星許願時，

it may no longer even exist.

它甚至可能都不復存在了。

I'm here to tell you the population of Earth

我來此是要告訴各位， 地球上的人口和那些星星很像。

is a lot like those stars.

In parts of the globe,

全球有些地區的人口 已經或很快就會開始縮水。

the human population is already, or will soon be, shrinking.

I know what you're thinking.

我知道各位在想什麼， 是的，總人口仍然在增加，

And yes, total population is still growing from eight billion today

從現今的八十億人，到高峰 可能會有九十億或一百億人。

to a peak of probably nine or 10 billion.

But when we track total increase,

但當我們去追蹤總增加量時，

we're looking at the star that seems to be shining brightly,

我們就像在看著 似乎光芒四射的星星，

but in actuality has already imploded.

但它實際上已經內爆了。

And that’s because there’s a difference between what’s happening on the surface --

因為這兩者之間是有差別的： 表面上所發生的狀況——

很明顯，就是總增加量——

which is obvious total growth -- and the tectonic forces beneath.

以及藏在底下的大地構造作用力。

Since the 1960s, world population has more than doubled,

從 1960 年代起，

世界人口已經變為兩倍以上。

but the growth rate has been falling the entire time.

但成長率一直都在下降。

We're witnessing the most fundamental shift to take place

我們正在見證人類 現代史上最基本的轉變，

in modern human history.

The shift towards pervasive and permanent low fertility,

轉向普遍且永久的低生育率、

population aging and eventual depopulation.

人口老化，

最終，人口也會減少。

Fertility is down everywhere,

每個地方的生育率都很低， 只是各地低的程度不同而已。

just at different rates in different places.

If fertility stays the same as it is today, just hold still,

如果生育率從今天之後都不再改變，

by the end of this century,

到這個世紀末，

China's population will be less than half of its current size.

中國的人口會減少到 只有現今的一半不到。

It's a loss of 800 million people.

也就是少了八億人。

South Korea's will be down by 63 percent,

南韓的人口會減少 63%。

Poland's and Japan's by half,

波蘭和日本的人口會減少一半。

Italy's and Thailand's by 44 percent,

義大利和泰國的人口會減少 44%。

Eastern Europe by 40 percent.

東歐會減少 40%。

Even greater number of countries are already aging.

而人口已經在老化的國家就更多了。

Again, just 20 years ago,

同樣的，僅二十年前， 如果我們把日本、

if we'd lined up everyone in Japan or Italy or Germany

義大利，或德國的所有人排成一列，

from the youngest person to the oldest

從最年輕排到最老，

and we ask that person in the middle their age,

問中間的那個人年齡幾歲，

they would have been 40 years old.

得到的答案會是四十歲。

Today, the populations of Thailand, Kuwait and Cuba are just as old,

現今，泰國、科威特， 和古巴的人口也是這麼老，

with Chile, Iran and Vietnam close behind.

智利、伊朗，和越南緊跟在後。

And even India,

就連印度，

as it seems to be this bright star,

它就像是顆明亮的星星，正要登上 世界上人口最多之國家的寶座，

assuming the throne as world's most populous country,

has below-replacement fertility.

而該國的生育率低於替代水平。

The number of young people entering into India's workforce

進入印度勞動力的年輕人 數目已經到達高峰了。

has already peaked.

People are the foundation of everything in a society.

社會中的一切都是以人為基礎。

We're the workers and the voters

我們是工作者、選民、 士兵，以及照護者。

and the soldiers and the caregivers.

So how many of us there are and who we are, that matters.

因此，我們有多少人 以及我們是什麼樣的人，

這很重要。

We're on track for there to be more people over age 60

照現在這樣走下去， 到了這個世紀中，

六十歲以上的人就會 比十四歲以下的人還多。

than under the age of 14 by the middle of this century.

That radical shift in modern human society

現代人類社會發生這種劇烈的變革，

presents us with a world of possibilities.

帶給我們一個充滿可能性的世界。

Our demography is our destiny, yes,

我們的人口統計是我們的命運， 的確，但我們如何因應

but how we react to that demography is not preordained.

那人口統計，就不是注定的了。

What possible worlds might we create

如果我們深思熟慮地規劃 一個人口較少的老化社會，

if we thoughtfully plan for an older,

smaller population?

可能會創造出什麼樣的世界？

In one possible world,

其中一個可能是：

we put our heads in the sand

我們把頭埋進沙裡， 繼續照舊過日子。

and keep going about our business as usual.

We have seen most societies react like they're living in this world

我們已經看到多數社會因應的方式 就像是生活在這個世界裡，

and throw money at people to have more babies.

用錢獎勵多生小孩的人。

But it doesn't work.

但那行不通。

南韓已經花了兩千一百億美金

South Korea has spent 210 billion dollars

over the last 16 years trying to raise fertility

試圖在過去十六年間將生育率提升，

and they keep hitting record lows, under one child per woman on average.

而他們的生育率仍不斷創新低，

平均一名女子還不到一個孩子。

In this status quo world,

在這個現狀的世界裡，

we keep the same economic models that assume infinite population growth

我們持續用同樣的經濟模型， 假設人口會無止盡成長，

and amass more debt to pay for our public spending.

累積更多債務，來支付 我們的公共支出。

Our social safety nets stay the same,

我們的社會安全網也沒有變，

which, those rely on more inputs from workers

這種安全網比較仰賴工作者的 投入而非退休者的提領。

than withdrawals from retirees.

That's what we call a pay-as-you-go system.

這就是我們所謂的量入為出制度。

Western Europe is already struggling to keep these systems afloat

西歐現在要維持這類制度的 運作已經非常辛苦，

because in many of those countries

因為在許多西歐國家，

there are only two workers for every retiree.

每位退休者只對應兩名工作者。

You can see how top heavy the population's age structure is here

從這張圖可以看到人口的 年齡結構有多偏向老年，

and how in the next few years it will grow even more so that way.

在接下來的幾年， 這個傾向可能還會更嚴重。

In a status quo world,

在現狀的世界裡，

the world's most powerful countries continue to increase military spending

世界上最強大的國家 會持續增加軍事支出，

and try to project power beyond their borders,

並試圖將其力量投射到 國界以外的地方，

even as their national budgets strain

即使它們的國家預算緊繃，

and the recruiting pool for soldiers shrinks.

能招募從軍的對象也越來越少。

Hello, Russia, China, and maybe even the United States.

包括俄羅斯、中國，也許還有美國。

So what results from failing to adapt and clinging to the status quo?

所以，不去適應 而固守現狀會有什麼後果？

Systems overload and break.

體制會超載而垮掉。

We have higher labor costs which lead to inflation

勞工成本會更高， 因而導致通貨膨脹，

and that just makes it even more expensive to have children.

這麼一來養育孩子就更昂貴了。

Social security systems go bankrupt

社會保障制度破產，

and we lose the gains we've made in reducing old-age poverty.

我們本來在減少 老年貧困上的成就也沒了。

But a head in the sand world isn't as bad as a fearful one.

但，把頭埋進沙裡的世界 並沒有懼怕的世界那麼糟。

In a fearful world,

在懼怕的世界裡，

the ability to choose how many children to have

選擇要生幾個孩子以及何時生的能力

and when to have them gets taken away.

會被奪去。

Something that's easier in less democratic settings.

在不那麼民主的地方比較容易發生。

這裡的消息亦非好消息。

And not good news here either.

Twenty years ago, almost all of our aging countries were democracies.

二十年前，老化的國家 大部分是民主國家。

Now, a quarter of them,

現在，年齡中位數在

those with median ages of 35 or higher, aren't free.

三十五歲以上的國家， 有四分之一不是自由國家。

And I know we see this idea of coercion in science fiction,

我知道科幻小說中常有高壓政治的 概念，但它不只是科幻小說。

but it's not just science fiction.

In 1965, when Nicolae Ceaușescu took the helm in Romania

1965 年，當尼古拉‧齊奧塞斯庫 掌握羅馬尼亞政權時，

and he wanted more Romanian babies,

他想要更多羅馬尼亞嬰兒，

he forced it to happen through invasive measures.

他採用侵犯式的手段 強迫實現這個目標。

Fertility temporarily spiked,

生育率暫時升高，

but not without dire consequences for women and for those children,

但女人和孩子卻也得 承受可怕的後果，

many of whom were abandoned to orphanages.

許多孩子被丟棄在孤兒院。

In a fearful world,

在懼怕的世界裡，

immigration becomes more restricted.

移民更受限。

There's more hatred and division

有更多的仇恨和分裂，因為多數族群

as majority groups fear being replaced by people who don't look like them.

害怕自己被外表 與他們不同的人給取代。

There’s less global cooperation as aging, shrinking countries,

全球性的合作也會越來越少， 因為老化且人口變少的國家

they lose the willingness

不再願意也不再能夠

and ability to think about causes outside their borders and fund those.

考量及資助它們國界外的理想。

We can't come together on pandemics or climate change

我們無法團結起來處理疫情、 氣候變遷，或其他跨國界議題。

or other transboundary issues.

Does any of this sound familiar?

上述這些聽起來耳熟嗎？

I actually don't think we're fully in this world yet,

我並不認為我們已經 完全進入這個世界，

even if way too much of this hits close to home.

即使有太多這些現象 都出現在我們周遭。

But I can imagine how we might get there

但我可以想像，若我們不主動 去形塑我們想要的世界，

if we aren't proactive to shape the world we want.

可能就會淪落到懼怕的世界。

And what kind of world would we want?

我們想要怎樣的世界？

Well, in a resilient world,

嗯，

在有韌性的世界，

we compete to attract talent from across the globe

我們競相吸引全球人才，

and set aside our nationalist tendencies.

並將我們的民族主義傾向擺到一邊。

A shrinking world is in our future,

未來世界人口一定會變少，

but obviously some places are much closer than others.

但很顯然，有些地方 會比其他地方更早發生。

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania,

在剛果民主共和國、

衣索比亞、奈及利亞、坦尚尼亞，

fertility is still high enough that each generation is twice the size

生育率還很高，目前每代 人口數都還是前一代的兩倍。

of the one before it.

Those young and growing populations can be a tremendous resource

不斷增加的年輕人口

可以成為他們國家經濟的重大資源，

for their national economies

if we have investments in human capital and other policies

只要我們能投資在人力資本

和其他能協助這些國家獲得 人口統計益處的政策上。

that can help these countries reap a demographic dividend.

And they can be a resource for the global economy too.

他們也能成為全球經濟的資源。

I mean, the US and Canada,

我的意思是，儘管美國和加拿大

they stand out as still growing despite below replacement fertility in both.

生育率低於替代水平， 它們的人口仍然在成長。

And in fact, Canada had record population growth last year,

事實上，去年加拿大的 人口成長創下記錄，

96 percent of which was due to immigration.

其中 96% 是因為移民。

不只有它們的模型和移民有關，

Theirs aren't the only models for immigration

and there are obvious trade-offs to opening your borders.

很顯然開放邊界是有利有弊的。

But no one said this would be easy.

但沒人說這會是件易事。

And speaking of things not being easy, we're going to have to work longer.

說到不容易，

我們將來的工作時間 會更長，你我都是。

Me too. You too.

那是因為在經濟合作暨發展組織 （OEDC）追蹤的國家中有近一半

And that's because in nearly half of economies that the OECD tracks,

fewer than 10 percent of people over the age of 65 still work.

六十五歲以上人口 還在工作的比例不到 10%。

That is not going to fly in a resilient world.

在有韌性的世界，那是不行的。

But in a resilient world,

但在有韌性的世界，

we've rethought what work looks like at older ages,

我們重新思考在更高齡時 工作是什麼樣子的，

and we strategically leverage technology to maximize our productivity.

且我們戰略性地運用科技， 將我們的生產力最大化。

And we can work longer because we're healthier.

因為我們更健康，就能工作得更久。

In a resilient world,

在有韌性的世界， 我們終於明白把時間

we finally realize that investing in health

和資源投資到健康上是更好的選擇，

is a much better use of time and resources

than trying to dictate population size.

而不是一直去試圖支配人口數量。

Similarly, in a resilient world, we've put in place policies,

同樣的，在有韌性的世界，

我們已經設訂好的政策、 獎勵措施，和技術

incentives and technologies

that recognize how we consume is just as important

都立基在認可我們如何消費

和有多少人消費同等重要。

as how many of us consume.

And the environment is healing.

而環境則是在漸漸恢復健康。

In a resilient world,

在有韌性的世界，

those societies closer to the start of this demographic transition

正要開始發生人口統計 轉變的那些社會

take advantage of the time to plan and institute sustainable systems

有時間上的優勢，

可以在面臨自身人口統計改變時 規劃和建立好永續的制度。

in the face of their demographic change.

This is important

這很重要，因為，

because for the population ages 60 plus

六十歲以上佔總人口的比率， 要從 15% 增加到 30%，

to go from 15 percent of the total to 30 percent,

it'll take Ireland 92 years,

愛爾蘭花了九十二年，

the United Kingdom 89 years,

英國花了八十九年，

and Germany 70 years.

德國花了七十年。

For that same demographic shift to happen now,

現在，針對同樣的人口統計轉變，

it'll take India 34 years,

印度花了三十四年，

Mexico 32,

墨西哥三十二年，

Iran 20

伊朗二十年，

and Thailand, only 19.

泰國只用了十九年。

It's happening faster now.

現在這種轉變發生的速度更快了。

And we really need to realize this because those countries have to act,

我們真的得要明白這一點，因為，

這些國家必須要採取行動， 包括一系列政策，如：

including suites of policies like moving away from informal economies

擺脫會增加老年時期 貧困風險的非正式經濟。

that increase the risk of poverty in older ages.

You know, there are so many people on the planet right now

現在地球上有很多人

just between the ages of 65 and 74,

年齡都在六十五歲到七十四歲之間，

that altogether they'd be the third most-populous country in the world.

把他們集合成一個國家，就會 是世界上人口第三多的國家。

There's far more of them than there are global migrants,

他們的人數遠多於全球移民人數，

which we don't hear about, right?

很少聽到這點吧？到本世紀中， 他們的人數會到到八億。

And there'll be 800 million of them by the middle of this century.

They're a vast untapped resource in most places in the world right now,

現在，在世界上大部分地區， 他們都是巨大的未開發資源。

but a well-utilized one in a resilient world

但在有韌性的世界， 這種資源會被善用，

and to mutual benefit.

且雙方都能受惠。

We should run from a fearful world and get our heads out of the sand.

我們應該要遠離懼怕的世界， 並把頭從沙子裡拔出來。

And we should be able to imagine a much better, more resilient world.

我們應該要能夠想像

一個更好、更有韌性的世界。

I've always thought that the way we feel about population aging

我一直認為，我們 看待人口老化的方式

to a large extent reflects the really negative way

有很高的程度

是反應出我們看待我們 自己個人老化的負面方式。

we feel about our individual aging.

And that bias has held us back.

那種偏見制約了我們。

But just as with our own aging, this shift is inevitable.

但這種轉變就像我們的 老化一樣無可避免。

So what are we going to do about it?

所以我們要怎麼做？

As individuals,

個人層面上，我們知道

we know that our actions now set us up to live longer, healthier,

我們現在的行為 會讓我們能夠過著更長、

更健康、財務上更安穩的生活。

more financially secure lives.

Our society's actions set us up

我們社會的行為會讓

for one of these three worlds to become our reality.

這三種世界的其中之一成真。

Let's make it a resilient world and reimagine a grayer,

咱們就讓有韌性的世界成真吧，

並把頭髮更蒼白、人口更少的 世界重新想像成美好的世界。

smaller world as a beautiful one.

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）