Are We the Last Generation — or the First Sustainable One? | Hannah Ritchie | TED

翻译人员: Sarah Liu 校对人员: suya f.

It's become strangely normal

奇怪的是，告诉我们的孩子他们

to tell our kids that they're going to die from climate change.

将死于气候变化， 这已变得异常正常。

If sea-level rise doesn’t get them, then a wildfire will,

如果海平面上升没有得到他们， 那么野火、全球饥荒

or a global famine, or crop failures.

或农作物歉收就会消失。

Maybe a fatal heat wave,

可能是致命的热浪、昆虫

the insect apocalypse

的启示录

or the fishless oceans.

或无鱼的海洋。

These are the headlines

这些是

we've all been told will be the end of humanity.

我们都被告知的头条新闻 将是人类的终结。

So we shouldn't be surprised, then,

因此，当今的年轻人因焦虑

that young people today feel crippled with anxiety.

而感到瘫痪， 我们不应该感到惊讶。

A large international survey asked 10,000 young people

一项大型国际调查 向10,000名年轻人

about their attitudes to climate change.

询问了他们对气候变化的态度。

More than half said they think humanity’s doomed;

超过一半的人说 他们认为人类注定要失败；

three-quarters find the future frightening;

四分之三的人认为 未来令人恐惧；

and more than one in three are hesitant to have children of their own.

超过三分之一的人 对生自己的孩子犹豫不决。

Young people today truly feel like they could be the last generation.

今天的年轻人真的 觉得他们可能是最后一代。

In fact, prominent activist groups actually take on this very name.

实际上，著名的激进组织 实际上就是用这个名字命名的。

Now I get this feeling,

现在我明白了这种感觉，

I've been there.

我去过那里。

I used to feel like humanity was doomed,

我曾经觉得人类注定要失败

and despite having multiple environmental degrees,

，尽管拥有多个 环境学位，

I felt completely helpless to do anything about it.

但我还是感到完全无能为力。

But I'm a data scientist,

但我是一名数据科学家，

and after years poring over the data on how far humanity's come

在仔细研究了人类走了多远

and how quickly things are now moving,

以及事物现在发展速度的数据之后，

my perspective on this has changed.

我对此的看法发生了变化。

I think we've got this framing upside down.

我想我们已经把 这个框架颠倒过来了。

Far from being the last generation,

我认为我们绝不是最后一代，

I think we will be the first generation:

而是第一代：

the first generation to be sustainable.

第一代可持续发展。

When we think about sustainability,

当我们考虑可持续性时，

we might imagine humans have only become unsustainable in the very recent past,

我们可以想象人类 直到最近才变得不可持续，

that our ancestors lived in perfect balance with nature

我们的祖先生活在

and only recently has that been knocked off.

与自然的完美平衡中， 直到最近才被淘汰。

Unfortunately, this is not true.

不幸的是，事实并非如此。

If we're nostalgic for sustainable paths to rewind back to,

如果我们怀念可以 追溯到可持续的道路，

there is none.

那就没有了。

The world has never been sustainable.

世界从来都不是可持续的。

Now I get that that's a controversial statement,

现在我明白这是一个有争议的说法，

so let me explain why.

所以让我解释一下原因。

When we think about the definition of sustainability,

当我们考虑可持续发展的定义时，

we might imagine something like this:

我们可能会想象这样的事情：

"having a low environmental impact to protect future generations."

“保护子孙后代的环境影响较小。”

And it's true, by this definition,

的确，根据这个定义，我们的

many of our ancestors were sustainable.

许多祖先都是可持续的。

They did have a low environmental impact.

它们对环境的影响确实很小。

But the reason they had a low environmental impact

但是它们之所以对环境的影响

is because the populations were tiny.

很小，是因为人口很少。

And the reason their populations were tiny

他们的人口很少的原因

is because half of children died before reaching puberty.

是因为有一半的儿童 在进入青春期之前死亡。

Half of children died.

一半的儿童死亡。

That, then, raises the question:

那么，这就提出了一个问题：

Is that what we really think sustainability is?

这就是我们真正认为的 可持续发展吗？

Is that the world we want to maintain and preserve,

那是我们想要维护和维护的世界，

one where half of our children die?

一个我们一半的孩子死亡的世界吗？

Hope your answer to that is no.

希望你对此的回答是否定的。

If we care about human suffering,

如果我们关心人类的痛苦，

we need to add another dimension to this.

我们就需要为此增加另一个层面。

We need to also provide a good life for everyone today.

今天，我们还需要 为每个人提供美好的生活。

Now that gives our definition two halves.

现在，我们的定义分为两半。

If we fail on either half, we have failed to be sustainable.

如果我们在任何一半都失败了，那么 我们就无法实现可持续发展。

That's where our ancestors were never sustainable.

那是我们的祖先从来 都无法实现可持续发展的地方。

They never achieved the first half of the equation.

他们从未达到 方程式的前半部分。

And over the last few centuries,

在过去的几个世纪中，世界

the world has made amazing progress on the first half.

在上半年取得了 惊人的进步。

As we've shown at Our World in Data,

正如我们在《我们的数据世界》 中所展示的那样，

child mortality is now down to four percent.

儿童死亡率现在已降至4％。

Extreme poverty used to be the default, now less than one in 10 people live there.

极端贫困曾经是默认的， 现在只有不到十分之一的人生活在那里。

Literacy and education used to be rare;

识字和教育曾经很少见；

now, most children in the world get the opportunity to go to school.

现在，世界上 大多数儿童都有机会上学。

But the world as it is today is still unacceptable.

但是，今天的世界仍然 是不可接受的。

It's unacceptable that millions of children die every year,

每年有数百万 儿童死亡，

that hundreds of millions live on less than two dollars a day,

数亿儿童每天靠不到两美元生活， 这是令人难以置信的低贫困线，

which is an incredibly low poverty line.

这是不可接受的。

But pick almost any metric of human wellbeing,

但是，

and you'll find that the world has become a much better place.

选择几乎所有衡量人类福祉的指标， 你会发现世界已经变得更加美好。

But that progress has come at a cost.

但这一进展是有代价的。

It's come at a cost to the environment.

这是以牺牲环境为代价的。

We burn wood and fossil fuels for energy.

我们燃烧木材和化石燃料作为能源。

We expanded farmlands at the cost of forests,

我们以牺牲森林为代价扩大了农田，

and our insatiable appetite for meat

我们对肉类的贪得无厌的胃口

means we now use half of the world's habitable land for farming.

意味着我们现在将世界上一半 的可居住土地用于耕种。

We kill billions of animals every year.

我们每年杀死数十亿只动物。

These are the trends that make us feel doomed.

这些趋势使我们感到注定要失败。

We see these lines rising, and we assume they might never stop.

我们看到这些线在上升， 我们认为它们可能永远不会停止。

But more recent data tells us a slightly different story.

但是最近的数据告诉我们 一个略有不同的故事。

A more hopeful story, that we can turn things around.

一个更有希望的故事 ，我们可以扭转局面。

This is per-capita CO2 emissions in the UK since 1750.

这是自1750年以来英国 的人均二氧化碳排放量。

Over the last few decades, emissions in the UK have halved.

在过去的几十年中，英国的 排放量减少了一半。

That means that my carbon footprint today

这意味着我今天

is less than half that of my grandparents' when they were my age.

的碳足迹还不到我这个 年龄的祖父母的一半。

That's despite the fact I live a much more extravagant lifestyle,

尽管事实上我过着更加奢侈的生活方式，

or, as they'd put it,

或者，正如他们所

"You youngsters just don't know how good you've got it these days."

说，“你们这些年轻人只是不知道 自己现在的生活方式有多好。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, you might think the UK's cheating here.

现在，你可能会认为 英国在这里作弊。

It used to be this industrial powerhouse,

它曾经是这个工业强国，

now it gets China, India and Bangladesh to produce its stuff for it.

现在它让中国、印度和 孟加拉国为它生产东西。

Maybe it's just offshored all these emissions.

也许所有这些排放 都离岸了。

There's a bit of truth to this --

这有一点道理——

when we adjust for trade, emissions in the UK are higher --

当我们根据贸易进行调整时， 英国的排放量会更高——

but we still see this dramatic decline over the last few decades.

但在过去的几十年中， 我们仍然看到这种急剧下降。

Offshoring is a bit of the story, but it's not the entire story.

离岸外包有点像故事， 但这不是故事的全部。

At the same time, the UK has increased its GDP.

同时，英国增加了 其国内生产总值。

GDP has gone up, while emissions have come down.

国内生产总值上升了， 而排放量下降了。

And it's not the only country to achieve this.

而且它不是唯一一 个实现这一目标的国家。

You will see the same for the US, for Germany,

France, Spain, Portugal.

法国、西班牙、葡萄牙， 你也会看到同样的情况。

A long list of countries have increased GDP

许多国家在减少排放的

while reducing their emissions.

同时提高 了GDP。

And again, this is not just because they've offshored them.

再说一遍，这不仅仅 是因为他们已经离岸外包了。

The notion that economic growth

认为经济增长

has to be incompatible with reducing our environmental impact

必须与减少我们的 环境影响不相容的观念

is simply wrong.

是完全错误的。

Now rich countries are reducing their emissions,

现在，富裕国家 正在减少排放，

but low- and middle-income countries are increasing theirs.

而低收入和中等收入 国家却在增加排放。

What does this mean at a global level?

这在全球层面意味着什么？

Well, total CO2 emissions are now beginning to flatline,

好吧，二氧化碳总排放量 现在开始趋于平缓，

but actually, emissions per person already peaked a decade ago.

但实际上，人均排放量 已经在十年前达到峰值。

That means the emissions of the average person in the world today

这意味着当今世界普通 人的排放量

have peaked, and are now falling.

已经达到顶峰， 现在正在下降。

And we will see a peak in total CO2 emissions soon.

我们很快就会看到二氧化碳 总排放量达到峰值。

Now, why is this happening?

现在，为什么会发生这种情况？

A big driver has been technological change.

一个重要的推动力是 技术变革。

Here, we see coal production in the UK since 1700.

在这里，我们可以看到自1700年 以来英国的煤炭产量。

Now the UK was the birthplace of industrial coal,

现在，英国是工业煤炭的发源地，

and it has now died there.

现在它已经消失在那里。

When I was born,

当我出生时，英国一半以

more than half of the UK's electricity was coming from coal.

上的电力 来自煤炭。

This is now less than two percent.

现在还不到百分之二。

And it’s dying in many other countries too.

而且它在许多其他国家也在消亡。

You will see the same for the US, Germany, Denmark, Spain,

美国、德国、丹麦、西班牙、

Portugal, Greece, Ireland.

葡萄牙、希腊、爱尔兰 也会看到同样的情况。

In many countries in the world, coal is dying.

在世界上许多国家， 煤炭正在枯死。

Taking its place are renewables, where costs are plummeting.

取而代之的是可再生能源 ，其成本正在直线下降。

The cost of solar has fallen by 99.8 percent since 1970,

自1970年以来，太阳能成本 下降了99.8％， 仅在过去十年中就

太阳能成本下降了99.8％， 仅在过去十年中就

fallen by 90 percent in the last decade alone.

下降了90％。

And if you're worried that it looks like this price trend is leveling off,

而且，如果你担心这种价格趋势 看起来会趋于平稳，那就

don't be.

不要这样做。

When we zoom in, we see that the price of solar continues to fall.

当我们放大时，我们看到 太阳能价格继续下跌。

And the same is true for wind.

风也是如此。

Go back a decade,

追溯到十年前，太阳能

and solar and wind were among the most expensive energy technologies we had.

和风能是我们拥有的最 昂贵的能源技术之一。

That is why the world was not making progress,

这就是为什么世界 没有取得进展，

that is why countries were not deploying them --

这就是为什么各国 没有部署它们的原因——

they were far too expensive.

它们太昂贵了。

But just ten years on, and that script has flipped.

但是仅仅十年过去了， 剧本就发生了翻转。

In many countries in the world, solar and wind are now the cheapest.

在世界上许多国家， 太阳能和风能现在是最便宜的。

Now if we're going to have renewables, we're going to need energy storage.

现在，如果我们要拥有可再生能源， 我们就需要储能。

But there's good news there too.

但是那里也有好消息。

The price of batteries has fallen by 98 percent since 1990.

自1990年以来，电池的价格 已经下降了98％。

If you take the battery you'd find in a Tesla today,

如果你拿今天在特斯拉中 找到的电池，可以追溯

go back to 1990, it would have cost one million dollars.

到1990年，它将花费 一百万美元。

It now costs just 12,000.

现在它的价格仅为12,000英镑。

That’s completely transformed the world of energy storage

这彻底改变 了储能世界

and completely transformed the world of transport.

，彻底改变 了交通世界。

Global sales of petrol and diesel cars have already peaked --

汽油和柴油车的全球销量 已经达到顶峰——

they peaked in 2017, and they are now falling.

它们在2017年达到顶峰 ，现在正在下降。

Taking their place are electric cars,

取而代之的是电动汽车，

where, in a space of just a few years, sales are going through the roof.

在短短几年内，电动汽车的 销量将达到顶峰。

And from energy and transport to the food we eat,

从能源和交通 到我们吃的食物，

you might imagine that global deforestation

你可以想象 全球森林砍伐

is at its highest level ever.

正处于有史以来的最高水平。

But actually, global deforestation peaked decades ago

但实际上，全球森林砍伐 在几十年前达到顶峰

and is now falling.

，现在正在下降。

But actually, it's better than that,

但实际上，这比这要好，

because many countries are now regrowing their old forests,

因为许多国家现在 正在重新种植其古老的森林，

such that the net decline is even more impressive.

因此净减少幅度更大。

Now, why is this happening?

现在，为什么会发生这种情况？

A big driver has been increases in crop yields.

一个重要的驱动因素 是农作物产量的增加。

For all of our agricultural history, crop yields were low and stagnant.

在我们所有的农业历史中，农 作物产量都很低而且停滞不前。

Farmers had basically no opportunities to increase them.

农民基本上 没有机会增加农民。

Over the last century,

上个世纪，

across many countries and many different crop types,

在许多国家和许多不同 的作物类型中，

crop yields have skyrocketed.

农作物产量猛增。

Here, we see it for the US, for corn,

在这里，我们看到了美国的玉米，

where yields have grown sixfold, from two tonnes to 12 tonnes.

其产量增长了六倍， 从2吨增加到12吨。

Now what this means is we can grow a lot more food

现在这意味着我们可以用更少的土地

from a lot less land.

种植更多的食物。

The amount of land used to produce corn in the US

一个多世纪

has not increased in over a century,

以来，美国用于生产玉米 的土地数量没有增加，

but look at the change in corn production.

但看看玉米产量的变化。

My main point here is that in the past,

我的主要观点是，过去，

human progress had to come at the cost of the environment.

人类的进步必须以 牺牲环境为代价。

If we wanted energy,

如果我们想要能源，

we had to burn wood or we had to burn fossil fuels.

就必须烧木头， 或者必须燃烧化石燃料。

If we wanted to grow more food,

如果我们想种更多的粮食，

we had to expand farmland,

就必须扩大农田，这

often at the cost of forests.

往往是以牺牲森林为代价。

But technology and innovation

但是技术和创新

means we're very quickly decoupling these impacts,

意味着我们很快就 脱钩了这些影响，因此

such that this conflict is no longer true.

这种冲突已不再是真的。

Let's then think about the world that we can have.

然后让我们想一想 我们可以拥有的世界。

We need to achieve the first half of our equation.

我们需要实现 方程式的前半部分。

We need to end global poverty.

我们需要消除全球贫困。

And here, I'm not talking about raising everyone

在这里，我说的不是要把所有人

above a two-dollar-a-day poverty line.

提高到每天两美元的贫困线以上。

That is simply not good enough.

这根本不够好。

We need to provide everyone with a good, comfortable life.

我们需要为每个人 提供美好、舒适的生活。

No child should die from a cause that’s preventable.

任何儿童都不应死 于可以预防的原因。

Every child should get the opportunity to go to school and get an education.

每个孩子都应该有 机会上学接受教育。

At the same time, we need to peak and reduce our CO2 emissions;

同时，我们需要达到峰值 并减少二氧化碳排放；

we need to move away from fossil fuels;

我们需要摆脱化石燃料；

and we need to end deforestation,

我们需要结束森林砍伐，

while feeding eight, nine, ten billion people, at the same time.

同时养活八、 九、一百亿人。

How do we do that?

我们该怎么做？

How do we become the First Generation?

我们如何成为第一代？

First, our low-carbon technologies need to become the default.

首先，我们的低碳技术 需要成为默认技术。

There's two ways to do this.

有两种方法可以做到这一点。

The first is to make sure that they are affordable,

首先是 确保它们价格合理，

to make sure that they are the cheapest option.

确保它们是最便宜 的选择。

Solar and wind are already cheaper than coal,

太阳能和风能已经比煤炭便宜，

electric cars will soon be cheaper than gasoline,

电动汽车很快就会比汽油便宜

and alternative proteins need to be cheaper than meat.

，替代蛋白 必须比肉类便宜。

The other way to do this

另一种方法

is to make sure these technologies are better.

是确保 这些技术更好。

Environmental products have often been promoted as this happy gimmick,

环保产品经常被 宣传为这种快乐的花招，

but they need to go mainstream,

但它们需要成为主流，

and for that, they need to be better than the high-carbon alternatives.

为此，它们需要 比高碳替代品更好。

Now my brother recently got an electric car.

现在我哥哥 最近买了一辆电动车。

He didn't get an electric car

他没有买电动汽车，

because he really cares about the environment.

因为他真的很 关心环境。

He does not want to be the next Greta Thunberg.

他不想成为 下一个 Greta Thunberg。

And he definitely does not want to be like me.

而且他绝对 不想像我一样。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

He got an electric car because the design and the driving experience

他买了一辆电动汽车， 因为它的设计和驾驶体验

were far better than the petrol alternatives.

That is how we make low-carbon technologies the default.

这就是我们将低碳技术 作为默认技术的方式。

We need to reframe the way we talk about sustainability

我们需要重新定义 我们谈论可持续发展的方式，

as often promoted as a sacrifice.

因为可持续发展通常被当作牺牲来宣传。

Environmental messaging is often built on scarcity.

环境信息 通常建立在稀缺性之上。

It’s about reducing our lives back to the bare minimum

这是为了将我们的生活减少 到最低限度，仅此

and no more.

而已。

But this is not a vision that inspires anyone.

但这不是一个能激发 任何人灵感的愿景。

This is not the future we want to build.

这不是我们想要建设的未来。

We need to reframe sustainability as an opportunity,

我们需要将可持续发展 重新定义为机遇，

because it is an opportunity.

因为这是一个机遇。

It's an opportunity to provide clean, abundant energy for everyone,

这是一个为所有人提供清洁、 充足能源的机会，

whether that's powering cities or countries,

无论是为 城市或国家供电，

or getting rural communities connected for the very first time.

还是第一次让农村社区联网 。

It’s about not being at the whims of fossil-fuel markets

这是为了不要随心所欲 地利用化石燃料市场，

也不要在独裁者入侵

or having millions plunged into fuel poverty

邻国

when dictators invade neighboring countries.

时让数百万人 陷入燃料贫困。

It's about breathing clean air.

这是关于呼吸干净的空气。

Here, we see the decline in harmful air pollution in the US,

在这里，我们看到，

from 2005 to 2021.

从2005年到2021年， 美国的有害空气污染有所下降。

Stopping people from dying is not a sacrifice.

阻止人们死亡 不是一种牺牲。

Finally, it's a way to rethink the way we live our lives,

最后，这是一种重新思考 我们的生活方式、

the way we design our cities and our communities.

我们设计城市 和社区的方式。

Here, we see Copenhagen, with bikes on the road,

在这里，我们可以 看到哥本哈根，自行车在路上，

or Amsterdam,

或者阿姆斯特丹，

where you have layer upon layer of bike rack.

那里有一 层又一层的自行车架。

Now I'm not saying this is how our cities have to look.

现在我并不是说 我们的城市必须这样看。

We can design them in any way we want.

我们可以随心所欲地设计它们。

What I'm saying is that sustainability gives us the shelf

我的意思是，可持续发展 为我们提供了

to rethink the way we do things.

重新思考做事方式的架子。

Finally, we need to rethink the way we use data.

最后，我们需要重新思考 我们使用数据的方式。

As a data scientist, I take this very seriously.

作为一名数据科学家， 我非常认真地对待这个问题。

The environmentalists have done an amazing job

环保主义 者在唤醒世界意识到这些

of waking the world up to these problems.

问题方面做得非常出色。

Those charts of rising CO2 and rising temperature

这些二氧化碳上升 和温度上升

have been absolutely critical.

的图表绝对至关重要。

They're why I'm on the stage today,

这就是我今天登上舞台的原因

they're why I got involved in this in the first place.

，也是我一开始就 参与这个的原因。

But there's a limit.

但是有一个极限。

When that's all we see, we become paralyzed.

当我们只看到这些时， 我们就会陷入瘫痪。

We see these lines rising,

我们看到这些线在上升，

and we assume that they might never stop.

我们假设它们可能永远不会停止。

We assume that no progress has been made,

我们假设没有取得任何进展，也没有

that nothing good is happening.

发生任何好事。

But as we've just seen, this couldn't be further from the truth.

但正如我们刚才所见， 这与事实相去甚远。

We need to use data to inspire,

我们需要使用数据来激发灵感，

to show what the problems are,

展示问题所在，

also what the solutions are,

解决方案是什么，我们需要展示国家，

and we need to show real signs of progress

个人、公司的真实进展

from countries, individuals, companies.

迹象。

Historically, our sustainability equation went like this.

从历史上看，我们的可持续发展 方程式是这样的。

It was one or the other.

它是一个或另一个。

You could not have both at the same time.

你不可能同时拥有两者。

We can be the first generation that does achieve both.

我们可以成为第一代同时实现 这两个目标的人。

Now the emphasis here is on "can."

现在这里的重点是 “可以”。

None of this is inevitable.

所有这些都不是不可避免的。

It's not even inevitable

我们一开始就有这样的机会 甚至不是不可避免

that we'd have this opportunity in the first place.

的。

We're only here because of the relentless work

我们 之所以来到这里，是因为环保主义者、 活动家、科学家、工程师、

of environmentalists, activists, scientists, engineers,

企业家、传播者的不懈努力，

entrepreneurs, communicators,

他们

determined to make the world a better place.

决心让世界变得更美好。

They have brought us here, and we need to take that forward.

他们把我们带到了这里， 我们需要向前迈进。

We need to do it bigger,

我们需要把它做得更大，

and we need to do it much, much faster.

我们需要做得更快。

But we do have the opportunity

但我们确实有

to be the first generation that builds a sustainable world.

机会成为建设可持续发展 世界的第一代人。

Let's take it.

让我们拿走吧。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼和掌声）